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Fuel Choice Model
The Total Resource Cost (TRC) Perspective
Michael Schilmoeller
9/8/2011
Summary-TRC Perspective
• Over 20 years– 560 MWa decline in power use– 13.1 x 1012 BTUs per year increase in gas use– 2,593,900 existing households
• Annually (just divide by 20)– 28 MWa decline in power use – 657 x 109 BTUs per year increase in gas use– 129,695 existing households
WH Size > 55 gals
HPWH
Gas Existing or Extension only
HPWH
Gas tank83,480 households/yr464 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-12.58 change, Mwa/yr
15,010 households/yr-101 change, BTUs 10^9/yr1.25 change, MWa/yr
31,202 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-5.68 change, MWa/yr
The convention in this decision tree is
•Every factor, indicated by a square box, is followed by two branches, indicating whether the condition is true or false
·The top branch leads to the outcome if the factor is TRUE; the bottom one corresponds to the situation where the condition is FALSE.·Each branch ends with a appliance choice, indicated by an oval and emphasized with an alternative font color
Source: M Schilmoeller, Q:\MS\Plan 6\Studies\Model Development\Direct Use of Gas\101004 Study\Selection tree 110904.docx
Water Heating
Space Heating
1050 sqft
Zonal
Existing Zonal (absence of ductwork)
AC
Gas FAF
Ductless
Gas existing or extension only
Gas FAF
AC
Heat Pump
Zonal
The convention in this decision tree is Every factor, indicated by a square box, is
followed by two branches, indicating whether the condition is true or false
The top branch leads to the outcome if the factor is TRUE; the bottom one corresponds to the situation where the condition is FALSE.
Each branch ends with a appliance choice, indicated by an oval and emphasized with an alternative font color
15,343 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.02 change, MWa/yr
4,111 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-1.41 change, MWa/yr
19,773 households/yr16 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.43 change, MWa/y
79,587 households/yr279 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-7.45 changeWa/yr
6,086 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.98 change, MWa/yr
4,793 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.68 change, MWa/yr