Stephen Bradforth

*FSEM 180 The Global Energy Crisis – Making Sense of it All

*Your perspective

*Do you believe there actually is an energy crisis?

*Which best describes your

position?

*Intend to engage in shaping energy future*Concerned but powerless*Not a big deal – it will take care of itself

*FSEM 180

*The rush for the remaining planetary oil and gas resources and decisions on cutting carbon emissions versus economic growth will define 21st century geopolitics, the condition of our planet and, quite possibly, whether there is sustained peace or a new cycle of world wars. Decisions about the energy supply will inevitably determine the quality of life for us all.

*The goal of this freshman seminar is for you to be armed with sufficient tools to understand the science behind alternative energy sources, what is possible and what is not and who to believe so you can help shape solutions to this defining issue for our century.

1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW

IS92a scenario

*The demand

"We are like tenant farmers chopping down the fence around our house for fuel when we should be using Nature’s inexhaustible sources of energy—sun, wind and tide. I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

Thomas Edison, 1931

• Fossil fuels are still used to generate 67% of the electricity in the world.

• We are on downward side of global oil production and oil prices are now incredibly sensitize to any political situation, driving recessions and prices of food

• Climate change from CO2 production is a threat to our way of life (at least according to scientists…)

Renewables 2%:Biomass and waste 62%

Wind 22%Geothermal 11%

Solar 1%Tide and Wave 0%

excluding hydro

Hydro 16%

Coal 40%

Oil 7%

Gas 20 %

Nuclear 16%

* Electricity by source, 2004 data

“I do believe that the issue of global warming has been politicized. I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects… I think we're seeing it almost weekly or even daily, scientists who are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change” Rick Perry, Texas Governor and GOP candidate for President

“If I compare the downsides of coal versus nuclear, I have to say I'd rather see renewed investment in nuclear power”

Prof. Steven Chu, Nobel Laureate, in spring 2008 (well before he became US Secretary of Energy)

*The supply

FOSSIL FUELS

*Coal*Oil*Natural Gas

*Nuclear

Clean Coal ?

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, March 2011

*Price of Oil1980 - present

The world uses 1 cubic mile of oil every year!

from Rubin “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller” (2009)“With supply dwindling and demand rising, you can expect scarcity. Scarcity mean high prices. You can expect triple digit oil prices in the near future. Yes, that means price at the pump is going to go up. Count on it. In the US, that should translate into as much as $7-per gallon gasoline…. But it will also hurt you in lots of ways you may not be thinking about.…Your food in particular is going to cost a lot more – in fact it is already getting more expensive all the time. The stuff you burn on your car is the same thing the farmer in Iowa needs to plant and harvest corn. It is the same stuff that powers the trucks and planes and ships that move everything around, the same stuff that is used for the petrochemical industry that produces our plastics and pharmaceuticals. …. Some difficult choices lie ahead.”

*And he’s not even considering oil and natural gas contribution to electricity supply!

*The supply

FOSSIL FUELS*Coal*Oil*Natural Gas

*Nuclear*Biomass

RENEWABLES*Hydroelectric*Geothermal*Solar*Wind*Tidal/Wave

*Do you think that our lifestyles will have to dramatically change?*How likely is a major war about the global energy

supply? *Do you think global warming is real and how

worried are you that this will dramatically affect the planet during your lifetime?*Are you confident renewable fuels can bridge the

gap (and fast enough to head off shortage in supply)?

*Discussion

*Geopolitics

*The last global frontier – The Artic The Greenland ice sheet

*Who are we and what do we care

about?

*Do you think that our lifestyles will have to dramatically change?*How likely is a major war about the global energy

supply? *Do you think global warming is real and how

worried are you that this will dramatically affect the planet during your lifetime?*Are you confident renewable fuels can bridge the

gap (and fast enough to head off shortage in supply)?

*Do you believe scientists? And if so, why?*What do you think about politicization of science?*Do you believe/hope/pray some advance in

technology will get us out of this hole?*How confused are you by all the information you

currently get?

Discussion

*Conservation

"The cleanest and cheapest kilowatt-hour is the one we do not have to produce” Jim Rogers, the CEO of Duke Energy – America’s third-largest coal consumer

What is this?

Source LaundryList.org

In the United States, 92% of single family homes had a dryer in 2005.

80% of US households use a dryer for between 2 and 9 loads per week.

Less than 4% of Italian households own a dryer.

But clotheslines are un-American!

*The numbers

Global Energy Consumption, 2001

Gas Hydro Renew

Total: 13.2 TW U.S.: 3.2 TW

*Power Units: what is a Terawatt?

Power 1 103 106 109 1012

1 W 1 kW 1 MW 1 GW 1 TW

So what to expect from FSEM 180:

Syllabus

Establish “special interest groups”

• We will meet next Tuesday

• Bookmark this class web site

• Download the “Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air” from link on class web site.

• I’ve posted assigned reading on the fate of oil. Read before class!

Expect activities, retreats and a possible field trip