Frontline Decision Support System: Design and Implementation Presented to the NGA Policy Forum 2001 December 6, 2001 Randall Eberts W. E. Upjohn Institute

Frontline Decision Support System:

Design and Implementation

Presented to the

NGA Policy Forum 2001

December 6, 2001

Randall EbertsW. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

Outline

Purpose and goals of FDSS Management tools Operation of FDSS Data requirements Prototype demonstration Implementation

Challenges of WIA

Serve large volume of customers Provide broader access to services Ask staff to perform more functions Identify customer needs Integrate services Emphasize performance outcomes and

program accountability Limited resources

Research and Front-line Operations

Challenges of WIA require new and innovative tools to help staff be more effective in the identification of needs and delivery of services

Research offers insights into ways to develop tools that can assist front-line staff and clients to make more informed decisions regarding: Employment prospects Skill requirements Appropriate services Eligibility for services

FDSS management tools use existing administrative data on a real-time basis

FDSS

Frontline Decision Support System is a joint effort of the USDOL/ETA, Upjohn Institute, and two states

The purpose is to design, develop, and implement on a pilot basis management tools that can help staff and customers use existing data to make more informed decisions regarding services and job prospects

FDSS Tools

Tools assist one-stop center staff to: Quickly assess needs of customers Target services to meet customers’ needs Deliver services in an effective and efficient manner

… And aid customers to: Quickly and systematically access labor market exchange

information and services Become better informed about job options Find better job matches more quickly Identify services that best meet their needs Determine eligibility for services

Data

Wealth of data already collected by state and local agencies and DOL/BLS

Administrative data can be useful beyond preparing reports and tracking outcomes

Can be used to directly help customers

“As a case worker I would spend at least 30 minutes with each client inputting information that I knew was not going to be used to directly help my client, but only to fill out reports…

…Now we have an opportunity to use this information to do a better job helping clients.”

Washington State ESD Staff person

Goals of FDSS

Promote speedy return to work Help individual workers gain productive

employment Help workforce agencies achieve

performance targets Improve cost effectiveness of services Integrate tools within existing service

delivery systems

Referrals

Service Flow of One-Stop Centers

Intensive Services Training Services

Core Services

Intake

Assessment interviews Resume workshop Labor market information Job interview referral

One-Stop Center Services

Assessment interviews Resume workshop Labor market information Job interview referral

Core


Intensive

• Aptitude and skill proficiency testing

• Individual and group counseling• Case management

• Job finding clubs

• Job search plan• Career planning

• Job search review• UI eligibility review


Training• Adult basic skills education• On-the-job training• Work experience• Occupational skills training

• Youth educational achievement services• Additional support for youth services• Citizenship skills for youth

Tools in FDSS

Systematic Job Search Module Chance of returning to same industry and occupation Estimate likely reemployment earnings Scan job prospects Identify related occupations Provide targeted information about specific jobs

Service Referral Module Rank most effective services Indicate typical use

• Estimate chance of returning To industry/occupation

• Review intake info & work history

• Earnings history & estimate• Search job orders• Choose related occupations

Referrals

FDSS Tools

Intensive Services Training Services

Core Services

Intake

Systematic Search Module

Service Referral Module

Program Eligibility

Provide initial assessment of eligibility for programs offered by required partners at One-Stop Centers:

Unemployment Insurance Employment Service Adult, Dislocated Worker and Youth Training Welfare-to-Work Veterans Employment and Training Programs Others within and outside of one-stops

FDSS Tools

Tools are customized to reflect an individual’s needs and propensities

Based on the experience of people who have similar characteristics and similar histories of program participation and work

Tools relate outcomes to personal characteristics and other factors

Data Sources

UI wage records Employment/earnings history

Program records: ES, UI, JTPA/WIA WtW

Worker/client characteristicsProgram participationEmployment history

Labor Market Information

Local unemployment ratesOccupation/industry projectionsRelated/transferable occupations

Available Data

Final Outcomes Earnings/QuarterEmployment

Intermediate Outcomes

Successful programcompletion

ExplanatoryVariables

Program Participation in Activities

Referred toParticipated inCompleted (Dates)

PersonalCharacteristics/

Education/trainingWork experience

Work History Occupation/industryFamily structureMilitary serviceImpairment/disability

Local Labor MarketConditions

Unemployment rateEmployment growth (by industry)

Systematic Job Search Module

Chance of returning to same industry and occupation

Estimate likely employment earnings Scan job prospects Identify related occupations

Job Prospects and Earnings

Relates job outcomes to: Education Dislocated worker status Disadvantaged worker status Age Prior occupation and industry Work history Military service Barriers to employment (eg., transportation, etc) Local labor market conditions

Returning to Same Industry

Characteristics Person

A B C

Maximum Prior Earnings $7502 $15002 $3499

Age 35 35 35

Education, less than high school 0 0 1

Education, more than high school 0 1 0

Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8

Employed 0 1 0

Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1

Held job last quarter 1 1 0

Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294 .327 .172

Predicted Earnings

Characteristics Person

A B C

Maximum Prior Earnings $7502 $15002 $3499

Age 35 35 35

Education, less than high school 0 0 1

Education, more than high school 0 1 0

Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8

Likelihood of staying in same industry .292 .325 .171

Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1

Predicted Earnings (median) $6728 $12618 $3387

Ratio of predicted earnings to prior earnings .90 .84 .97

Prototype Demonstration

Systematic Job Search Module Chance of returning to same industry and occupation Expected job growth in prior occupation Estimate likely employment earnings Explore “What if” scenarios Scan job prospects Identify related occupations and continue search

The Frontline Decision Support System The Frontline Decision Support System (FDSS) is an internet based system designed to help front line staff in Georgia Career Centers assist job seekers in finding jobs and in referring them to employment services. These administrative tools take into account current labor market conditions and the specific attributes of each customer, and they are based on the experience of customers who have recently used the Georgia Workforce System. This page for FDSS is divided into five screens. Click on the title of any screen to go to that screen. Job Seeker Background Information - This screen displays information relevant to job search which was provided by the customer when he or she registered with the employment service and/or applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Collected together this information provides an indication of a job seekers readiness for work. This information is used in other screens on the FDSS page to provide guidance for job search and choice among services available in Georgia Career Centers. Reemployment and Earnings Estimates - For each customer, this screen of FDSS provides a customized assessment of their prospects for returning to work in their prior industry, likely job growth in their prior occupation, and an estimate of the earnings they are likely to receive after reemployment. Systematic Job Search – This screen of FDSS can be used to guide the customer through a systematic job search procedure in which only the most relevant job vacancies are considered based on the reemployment and earnings estimates for that individual. Service Referral - For each job seeker, this screen of FDSS provides a customized list of core and intensive employment services that have been shown to be most effective in helping participants with that person’s specific attributes find and retain jobs. “What if” Scenarios - The FDSS permits reexamination of reemployment and earnings estimates for alternative job seeker characteristics. Various “what if” scenarios may be produced by changing the values for specific elements of background information for a job seeker. Data for the “What if” Scenarios is entered on the Reemployment and Earnings Estimates screen.

Job Seeker Background Information

Information on this screen should be checked by accuracy and completeness. Any fields may be revised for used during the current FDSS session. These changes willnot be permanently changed in the master files.

To begin, enter client ID number ________

Age: __________ Veteran: _____ Highest level of schooling: _____ Currently in school: _________Currently employed: _____ Currently receiving UI: ______Currently awaiting job recall: ______ Dislocated Worker: _________Economically disadvantaged: _____ Current TANF assistance: ____Weeks drawn in previous UI: ______ Exhausted prior year UI: _____Driver’s license: _____ Shift availability: ___________Desired Hourly wage: _______

Information about your most recent job:Occupation: ___________________ Industry: ___________________Hourly wage rate: _______________ Months on the job: ___________

Earnings History: Qtr 1_______ Qtr 2 _______ Qtr 3 ______Qtr 4: _____

Reemployment and Earnings Estimates

Probability of Returning to work within your industry:

Based on the reemployment patterns of others in your area of ____

with a background similar to yours, your chance of returning to work

in your prior industry is ____

Expected Job Growth Rate in Your Prior Occupation:

Over the next 5 years employment in your occupation of ____within your area of ____ is expected to grow by ____ per year.

Likely Reemployment Earnings:

Individuals with a background similar to yours, who found reemployment,had earnings in the following range

The top 75% had earnings above $12.78 per hourThe top 50% had earnings above $10.65 per hourThe top 25% had earnings above $8.51 per hour

Systematic Job Search

To search for current job listings in your prior occupation of ______in a selected geographic area of Athens Georgia at or above a wage level set as $10.65.

To list the five occupations most closely related to your prior occupation of ___ CLICK HERE

CLICK HERE

Here is the information about the occupations most closely related to yourprior occupation of _____ in a selected geographic area of Georgia _____.

Related Occupations

Approx. Starting

Hourly Wage


Job ListingsJob ListingsGrowthGrowthRateRate

Click HereClick Here





JOB SEARCH RESULTHere is the information about jobs in your prior occupation of ________in a selected geographic area of Georgia _____ for hourly wages above _____.

JOB POSTINGSApprox. Starting

Hourly Wage


To view a list of related occupations: To view a list of related occupations: Click HereClick Here

Service/Program EligibilityService/Program Eligibility

This screen indicates the likelihood that you are eligible for various state This screen indicates the likelihood that you are eligible for various state and federal programs, based on information you supplied when registeringand federal programs, based on information you supplied when registeringwith the employment service and/or applying for UI benefits and based onwith the employment service and/or applying for UI benefits and based onadditional information asked for on this screen. additional information asked for on this screen.

You supplied the following the information when registering for other programs.You supplied the following the information when registering for other programs.Please check the information to see if it is accurate and current.Please check the information to see if it is accurate and current.

Age: __________ Veteran: _____ Highest level of schooling: _____ Currently in school: _________Currently employed: _____ Currently receiving UI: ______Currently awaiting job recall: ______ Dislocated Worker: _________Economically disadvantaged: _____ Current TANF assistance: ____

Please supply the following information:Please supply the following information:

Annual income_______________Annual income_______________Number of dependents ________Number of dependents ________Do you own a car _____________Do you own a car _____________

Click HereClick Here for programs for programs

that you are likelythat you are likely to be eligible for to be eligible for

List of Programs that you may be eligible for:List of Programs that you may be eligible for:

CLICK CLICK HEREHERE






For more information and For more information and eligibility requirementseligibility requirements

Service Referral Algorithm

Provides a customized list of core and intensive employment services that have been shown to be most effective in helping participants with similar characteristics find and retain jobs

Based on information about the characteristics and outcomes of recent participants in programs

Service Referral

Two basic components Estimate likelihood of finding a job (needs

assessment) Ranking of services that lead to successful

outcomes for individuals with specific measurable characteristics

Four Step Process

An employability score is computed and assigned to each participant The employability score identifies individuals according to

their propensity to find a job The score is divided into quintiles

The relative effectiveness of each service (relative to job referrals) is computed for clients within each quintile and client type

The top five services with respect to effectiveness in assisting the client in finding a job are displayed

For each of the top services, the percentage of clients within each quintile is also displayed

Characteristics by Quintiles

Atlanta Region Employability Score by Quintiles

Characteristics 1 2 3 4 5

Percent UI, disadvantaged only 0.47 0.40 0.24 0.12 0.04

Percent UI, dislocated worker only 0.12 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.39

Employed 0.70 0.78 0.83 0.87 0.90

Employability Score 0.33 0.52 0.64 0.74 0.86

Maximum quarterly earnings $4332 $4534 $5142 $6141 $7675

Bachelor Degree 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.26

Months tenure with prior job 11 15 19 28 59

Professional, technical occupation 0.17 0.18 0.22 0.31 0.46

Top Five Services

Employability Score Quintiles

(All UI Clients Atlanta Region)

1 2 3 4 5

Testing Testing Job Finding Club

Service Coordination


Orientation Orientation Testing Testing Testing


Bonding Assistance

ERP Job Finding Club

Job Finding Club

Specific LMI Service Coordination

Orientation Expanded Workshop

Expanded Workshop

ERP Counseling Counseling Orientation Orientation

Service ReferralService Referral

The following is a list of the top five core and intensive employment services The following is a list of the top five core and intensive employment services available at a Georgia Career Center that have been shown to be most effectiveavailable at a Georgia Career Center that have been shown to be most effectivefor helping clients with your background. This list is intended to help you and yourfor helping clients with your background. This list is intended to help you and yourcounselor determine the most appropriate services to meet your needs. There iscounselor determine the most appropriate services to meet your needs. There isno guarantee that the services are available or that they will lead to a job. no guarantee that the services are available or that they will lead to a job.

CLICK HERECLICK HERE





ServiceService PercentPercentUsing ServiceUsing Service

MoreMoreInformationInformation

Frontline Decision Support System:

Design and Implementation

Randall EbertsW. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment

Research

Documents

Frontline Decision Support System: Design and Implementation Presented to the NGA Policy Forum 2001 December 6, 2001 Randall Eberts W. E. Upjohn Institute