FROM VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATIONS:

Findings and Lessons Learned from a Cross-country Project in

Cambodia, Philippines and Vietnam

Bui Dung The, Project Coordinator; Country Project Leader – Vietnam; Hue College of Economics Heng Naret , Country Project Leader – Cambodia; Royal University of Phnom PenhMaria Emilinda T. Mendoza, Country Project Leader – Philippines; University of the Philippines Los Banos / SEARCA

Based on research findings under the CCW – IDRC funded project entitled “Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Southeast Asia”; Presented during the SaciWATERs Dissemination Workshop - Conference , Kathmandu, Nepal , June 18-21, 2013.

Outline

• Introduction to the cross-country project

• Vulnerability study

• Economic analysis of adaptation options

• Concluding remarks

Overview

• Project title: “Building capacity to adapt to climate “Building capacity to adapt to climate change in Southeast Asia”change in Southeast Asia”

• A three year project, started January 2011, funded by EEPSEA and CCW Programs of IDRC

• Implemented by SEARCA , PhilippinesSEARCA , Philippines; Royal Royal University of Phnom Penh, CambodiaUniversity of Phnom Penh, Cambodia; and Hue Hue College of Economics ,VietnamCollege of Economics ,Vietnam

• Study sites: provinces of Kampong Speu Kampong Speu in Cambodia, LagunaLaguna in the Philippines and Thua Thua Thien HueThien Hue in Vietnam.

Project Objectives General:

To build capacities for research, planning and To build capacities for research, planning and action with respect to climate change and action with respect to climate change and economics of adaptationeconomics of adaptation

Specific:1. To analyze and measure vulnerability of communes/

barangays and households in selected provinces;

2. To undertake economic analysis of selected adaptation options;

3. To develop adaptation proposals;

4. To formulate policy recommendations to enhance local capacity to adapt to climate change

Study site:- Kampong Speu, Cambodia- Laguna, Philippines-Thua Thien Hue, Vietnam

Map of Cambodia

Kampong Speu:

- land-locked, 7017 km2 , sloping downward from West to East- 7 districts, 87 communes, 762,500 people - Agriculture - droughts and flash floods

Study site in Laguna province:

- 3 watersheds, 568 km2 ,- 12 municipalities, 194 out of 270 barangays, mostly lowland- Agriculture-Storms, floods, landslide, drought

Map of Laguna

Map of Philippines

Map of Philippines

Map of Thua Thien Hue province – Vietnam

Map of Vietnam

Thua Thien Hue:

-5,053 sq. km, topography including mountains, low-land and coastal areas-9 districts, 152 communes, 1.2 million people including minority ethnic groups- agriculture, the livelihood of the majority of the population-Storms, floods, drought

TRAINING, WORKSHOPS

Key activities 2011 2012 2013

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

STUDY

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

STUDY

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION

ADAPTATION PROPOSAL WRITING

ADAPTATION PROPOSAL WRITING

International training for research teams of

SEARCA, HCE, RUUP

-Vulnerability mapping and social vulnerability analysis

-Economics of adaptation options

- Adaptation proposal development, fund mobilization and research finding communication

Participatory interdisciplinary research & workshops by research teams and LGUs

-Vulnerability mapping and social vulnerability analysis;

-Economics of adaptation options

- Adaptation proposal development

Technical support by experts

Research institutes

(research teams)

Local government units

(LGUs)

Local training for local authorities and agencies by research teams

-Vulnerability mapping and social vulnerability analysis

-Economics of adaptation options

- Adaptation proposal development and fund mobilization

Capacity building approach

Vulnerability=f(Exposure , Sensitivities , and Adaptive Capacity)Vulnerability=f(Exposure , Sensitivities , and Adaptive Capacity)

Framework for the vulnerability analysis

Vulnerability index, map, and

explanation

Commune &

household surveys

FGDs, KIIs, in-depth

HH interviews

Vulnerability assessment and mapping

Vulnerability Map of Communes in Kampong Speu

Dominant determinants to vulnerability:

-Low adaptive capacity-Sensitivity

Communes close to district center are least vulnerable

Vulnerability Map of Selected Barangays in Laguna

Relative vulnerability:- 10 out of 21 coastal barangays (or 48%) are vulnerable- 23 out of 127 lowland barangays (or 18%) - 4 out of 41 midland barangays (or 10%). - highland barangays are not vulnerable

Dominant determinants to vulnerability :

-Low adaptive capacity-Sensitivity

Vulnerability map of communes in Thua Thien Hue

• Coastal and low-lying communes are more vulnerable due to high exposure and sensitivity (agriculture and fishery)

• More vulnerable upland communes are due to fragile location and high poverty rate

Determinants of Commune Vulnerability across study sites

Site Exposure/hazard Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Kampong Speu

Lower, few types of climatic hazards

Agriculture, high poverty rate

Lack of infrastructure Limited social capitalInadequate attention to long-term planning

Laguna Relatively high, more types of climatic hazards

Agriculture, fisheryHigh poverty rate

Limited infrastructureLess preparedInadequate attention to long-term planning

Thua Thien Hue

Higher and more type of climatic hazards

Agriculture, fishery, and perennial cropsComplicated topography, relatively high poverty rate

Limited infrastructureRelatively high social capital (except upland communes)Rich experience in adaptation and copingInadequate attention to long-term planning

Household Vulnerability by topographical areas

Coastal Lowland Upland

Kampong Speu ----- lower high

Laguna Highest high lower

Thua Thien Hue Highest lower high

Household Vulnerability by Livelihood

CroppingAnimal

husbandary

Upland perennial

cropsAquaculture Non farm

Kampong Speu

High rather high ------------ ------------ low

Laguna high high ----------- highest low

Thua Thien Hue

rather high rather high highest highest low

Selected adaptation options for economic analysis

Sites Adaptation optionsEconomic analysis

Odong district, Kampongspeu, Cambodia

Water reservoir construction to address drought problem in Odong district

CBA

Sta. Cruz River Watershed, Laguna, Philippines

Technology-based Early warning system

CBA

Evacuation centerRelocationBuilding modification

CEA

Quang Dien district, Thua Thien Hue, Vietnam

Upgrading flood control system in Quang Dien district

CBA

Valuation of cost and benefits

Adaptation options Benefit valuation Cost valuation

Water reservoir construction to address drought problem in Odong district

Change in net –return from agricultural production

Market price

Technology-based Early warning system

CVM Market price

Evacuation centerRelocationBuilding modification

Not valued Market price

Upgrading flood control system in Quang Dien district

Avoided damage and income loss, change in net-return from agricultural production

Market price

CBA results

Adaptation options NPV BCR

Water reservoir construction to address drought problem in Odong district

USD 1.5 million

3.9

Technology-based Early warning systemUS$ 82.5 million

43

Upgrading flood control system in Quang Dien districtUSD 5.2 million

2.1

CEA results

Adaptation optionsCER

(peso/hh)

Relocation 325,268

Evacuation center 294,610

Housing Modification 279,342

• Vulnerability to climate change differs across local context

• Lack of alternative livelihoods, poor infrastructure and inadequate financing mechanism are constraint to the improvements of communities’ current and future resilience

• Climate change adaptation options, especially EWS, if well screened and designed would bring about high returns

Concluding remarks

Lessons learned• LGU staff can effectively involve in vulnerability

indexing and mapping at local level (district/province)

• One important constraint to vulnerability indexing and mapping is the identification of relevant indicators, this in turn is constrained by the unavailability of data

• Inter-disciplinary and participatory approach should be adopted to ensure policy relevance and usefulness of research findings

Implications

• Refinement of indicators for vulnerability analysis

• Importance of a participatory approach in climate change adaptation research and interventions

• Relevance of interdisciplinary approach

• Need for economic valuation of CC adaptation options

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!