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From Respectability to Violence?: the Transformation of the Orange
Order since 1950
Social Change in Orangeism Since 1950
A less hierarchical organisation:– Changes in social background of elites and
masses in 20th c– Growth of political populism within
Orange Order since 1950
Rough or Respectable?
• Division between 'Rough' and 'Respectable' (Bryan 2000)
• Division between 'Rebel' and 'Loyalist' traditions since the beginning
• Modernisation shifts the balance
Rebels Loyalists
Denomination Presbyterian, Methodist Church of Ireland
Plantation Origin Scots-Irish Anglo-Irish
Mass base Industrial Labour, Small freeholders Rural tenants
North American Exemplars ‘Scotch-Irish’ Patriots in USA, c. 1776 Irish Orange Loyalists in Canada, c. 1837
Interpretation of Orangeism Uphold militant Protestantism Uphold traditional British-Protestant values
View of Grand Lodge and Unionist leaders
Skeptical Respectful
Preferred Political Expression Direct Public Protest Informal elite channels
Preferred Orange Principle Ulster-Protestant ethnic interest and reformed faith - as embodied in abstract principle and the sentiments of the mass membership
Orange tradition - as embodied in Orange laws, ordinances, customs and history
Leadership Evangelical clergy, petit-bourgeoisie Aristocracy, Large local businessmen
Political Philosophy Lockean radical change, Populism Burkean evolution, Deference to elite consensus
Attitudes to alcohol, band discipline and traditional social mores
More permissive, with the exception of a small number of moral fundamentalists
Conservative
Stance toward paramilitaries and political violence
More permissive Antagonistic
Attitude toward British crown Conditionality Loyalty
Interpretation of Protestantism Protestantism as dissent Protestantism as tradition
National identity Ulstermen British
Favoured N.I. party DUP UUP
Regional base Antrim, N. Down, Belfast South and West
(Post-)Modernisation and Nationalism
• 'Rebel' side in better accord with modernity
• Thus modernisation = populist ‘nationalism’ while tradition = support for UUP moderates
• Contradicts some post-modernisation theory that sees the decline of ethnic, religious or national identities (ie Giddens)
Predictors of Support for the UUP in the 2001 Election (Protestants only), by Wald Test Statistic
05
1015202530
Age (+)
Education level vs low ed. (+)
Private enterprise (+)
Unionist (+)
Canvassed by uup (+)
Respect for NI assembly (+)
Westm
inster power (+)
Implem
ent GFA (+)
Canvassed by alliance (+)
Canvassed by dup (-)
Dissatisfied British Democ...
Paramilitary Infiltration
– Paramilitaries intimidating and infiltrating Orange Order in inner-city Belfast and even other urban areas
– Dawson Baillie: admits that some members in paramilitaries
– Baillie: acknowledges paramilitary support for parades
– Baillie: cites pressure from grassroots that Order not 'doing enough'
Decline of Skilled-Worker Base in Belfast
Occupations of Belfast Orange Initiates, 1961-86
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1961 1965 1971 1981 1986
Professional &ManagementStudent
Clerk
Apprentice
Labourer
Unemployed
Lodge membership, Portadown District, 1962-2004
0
200400
600
8001000
1200
1400
16001800
2000
Orange membership, N. Ireland, 1958-20041958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Orange Membership, Belfast, 1962-2002
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
County Armagh membership, 1958-2002
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Orange membership, Co. Tyrone, 1958-2002
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Change in Urban Orangeism
– Sharp Membership decline in urban areas and larger towns
– Few (0-5%) young urban Protestant men are in the Order
– Membership losses to alternative forms of Protestant identity (bands, paramilitaries)
– Secularisation, de-traditionalisation, de-industrialisation
– Belfast Order 'adapts' by relaxing moral code and line against paramilitarism in order to retain members
Orange Order Lodges & Density 1991
Orange Order Density 1991
Predictors of Orange Density (DEA level), by t statistic, 1991
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Poor and rural (+)
Migrants (-)
Protestant Unemployed% (-)
Male Orange Density, N.I., 1971
Orange Naughtiness by County, 1964-2002
Expulsion Rate per Member (1991), by County, 1964-2002
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
A Decline of Discipline?
• Ryder & Kearney (2001), as well as Drumcree and interface violence would suggest this
• Some suggest that there has been a change in the culture of Orangeism toward greater permissiveness
• Others claim that the middle class has been deserting the Order
Expulsion Rate, 1964-2002
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
0.07%
Discipline Has Never Been Strong
• Gusty Spence and Robert Williamson, UVF men, sentenced for murder of Catholics, 1966
• Mid-June 1967 debate at Grand Lodge. One lodge moves for non-expulsion, decision deferred for 6 mos. pending outcome of Shankill Rd. petition
• Though suspended in 1967, few similar cases• What has changed is elite's willingness to suspend
for challenging the leadership (ie Spirit of Drumcree vs. Orange & Protestant Committee of 1953-4)
Expulsions from the Orange Order, by Category, 1964-2002
Law 4 (marry/cohabit),
33%
Other RC-related, 11%Crime, 25%
Fraud, 12%
Immorality, 6%
Discipline, 10%
Reasons for Expulsions over Time, 1964-2002
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
DisciplineImmoralityFraud
CrimeRC tot
Profile of Orange Resignations, 1998-2003
Avg 27 Rural NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N
Orangemen 2001 6.082114 35.51% 12.43% 58.66% 3368
Resignations98-03 5.852616 15.78% 18.27% 52.94% 767
Difference 0.229497 19.73% -5.84% 5.71%
Postcode Profile of Suspended Orangemen, 2002
Avg 27 NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N. Cases
Grand Lodge 3.07 18% 63% 144
Suspended 3.06 35% 41% 296
District Officers 3.02 17% 61% 803
Masters&Sec 3.07 22% 58% 1429
Conclusion: Violence and Paramilitarism
• Young loyalists increasingly favour DUP, less likely to support traditional institutions (churches, Orangeism)
• Change in urban, loyalist culture forces Orangeism to 'adapt' in order to stanch losses
• Changes also affect the Order at the top and cause rifts between country-based 'traditionalists' and militants from the towns and E. Bann counties
• Though violence on the rise, discipline has never been strongly enforced in the Order