Global Environmental Change + Global ”Governance” Change

Are they compatible? How does this affect our capacity to deal with complex, non-linear, multilevel social-ecological systems?

What do YOU think?

High Medium Low Very Low No data/n.a.

”Good Governance” according to the World Bank:

Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory

Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.

High Medium Low Very Low No data/n.a.

Does ”good governance” matter for protecting vital ecosystems?

Forest Cover Change

Biodiversity (bird population)

High levels of corruption Low levels of corruption

Spatial misfit

Local institutions vs. global driver/s

Fisheries? ”Land grab”?

Municipal institutions vs. Water catchment

Temporal misfits

The Sahel region 1950s-60s

”Roving Bandits” F. Berkes et. al. 2006

Cod stock collapse, Newfoundland, (Canada) Thresholds misfit

Cascading dynamics and misfits

Fish and Ebola virus

Fish stock

decrease

Increased bushmeat

hunting

Coral reef

Agro-

ecosystems

Climate

change

Speed of change

Fast

Slow

Uncertainty Low High

Spatial distr

Limited

Very large

Is it at all possible?

Institutions, polycentric governance, social networks, global governance, bridging organizations, innovation and learning in social networks, transformation.

Difference institutions and governance? Institutions are ”the rules of the game”

Governance implies collaboration patterns, steering, and coordination at multiple levels.

Institutional in governance tend to be ”clusters” or ”complexes”, rather than simple set of rules

Think about how they relate to the dynamics behavior of SES a.ka. ”problem of fit”

END

•  Questions?

Notoriuosly difficult to govern Complex drivers - institutional fragmentation and ”clusters”

Limited incentives to act before threshold, combined with scientific uncertainty