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From epigenetic landscape to phenotypic fitness landscape: evolutionary effect of pathogens on host traits Mark Jayson V. Cortez 1 , Jomar F. Rabajante 1, *, Jerrold M. Tubay 1 , Ariel L. Babierra 1 1 Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños, College, Laguna 4031, Philippines *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract The epigenetic landscape illustrates how cells differentiate into different types through the control of gene regulatory networks. Numerous studies have investigated epigenetic gene regulation but there are limited studies on how the epigenetic landscape and the presence of pathogens influence the evolution of host traits. Here we formulate a multistable decision-switch model involving many possible phenotypes with the antagonistic influence of parasitism. As expected, pathogens can drive dominant (common) phenotypes to become inferior, such as through negative frequency-dependent selection. Furthermore, novel predictions of our model show that parasitism can steer the dynamics of phenotype specification from multistable equilibrium convergence to oscillations. This oscillatory behavior could explain pathogen-mediated epimutations and excessive phenotypic plasticity. The Red Queen dynamics also occur in certain parameter space of the model, which demonstrates winnerless cyclic phenotype-switching in hosts and in pathogens. The results of our simulations elucidate how epigenetic landscape is associated with the phenotypic fitness landscape and how parasitism facilitates non-genetic phenotypic diversity. Keywords: parasitism, disease, plasticity, inclusive inheritance, biodiversity, mathematical model . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license certified by peer review) is the author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not this version posted May 5, 2016. . https://doi.org/10.1101/051904 doi: bioRxiv preprint

From epigenetic landscape to phenotypic fitness …...2016/05/05  · From epigenetic landscape to phenotypic fitness landscape: evolutionary effect of pathogens on host traits Mark

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Page 1: From epigenetic landscape to phenotypic fitness …...2016/05/05  · From epigenetic landscape to phenotypic fitness landscape: evolutionary effect of pathogens on host traits Mark

Fromepigeneticlandscapetophenotypicfitnesslandscape:evolutionaryeffectofpathogensonhosttraitsMarkJaysonV.Cortez1,JomarF.Rabajante1,*,JerroldM.Tubay1,ArielL.Babierra11InstituteofMathematicalSciencesandPhysics,UniversityofthePhilippinesLosBaños,College,Laguna4031,Philippines*Correspondingauthor:jfrabajante@up.edu.phAbstractTheepigeneticlandscapeillustrateshowcellsdifferentiateintodifferenttypesthroughthecontrolofgeneregulatorynetworks.Numerousstudieshaveinvestigatedepigeneticgeneregulationbuttherearelimitedstudiesonhowtheepigeneticlandscapeandthepresenceofpathogensinfluencetheevolutionofhosttraits.Hereweformulateamultistabledecision-switchmodelinvolvingmanypossiblephenotypeswiththeantagonisticinfluenceofparasitism.Asexpected,pathogenscandrivedominant(common)phenotypestobecomeinferior,suchasthroughnegativefrequency-dependentselection.Furthermore,novelpredictionsofourmodelshowthatparasitismcansteerthedynamicsofphenotypespecificationfrommultistableequilibriumconvergencetooscillations.Thisoscillatorybehaviorcouldexplainpathogen-mediatedepimutationsandexcessivephenotypicplasticity.TheRedQueendynamicsalsooccurincertainparameterspaceofthemodel,whichdemonstrateswinnerlesscyclicphenotype-switchinginhostsandinpathogens.Theresultsofoursimulationselucidatehowepigeneticlandscapeisassociatedwiththephenotypicfitnesslandscapeandhowparasitismfacilitatesnon-geneticphenotypicdiversity.Keywords:parasitism,disease,plasticity,inclusiveinheritance,biodiversity,mathematicalmodel

.CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licensecertified by peer review) is the author/funder. It is made available under aThe copyright holder for this preprint (which was notthis version posted May 5, 2016. . https://doi.org/10.1101/051904doi: bioRxiv preprint

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IntroductionThemechanismsofepigeneticsaremultifacetedandcomplex[Danchinetal.2011;Gomez-Diazetal.2012;Huang2013;Duncanetal.2014;Kilvitisetal.2014;Skinner2015].Inspiteofnumerousexperimentalandtheoreticalstudiesontheepigeneticlandscapeofphenotypespecification[Richards2008;Rohlfetal.2012;Huang2013;Kilvitisetal.2014;Rabajanteetal.2015],itsbehaviorisnotfullyunderstood,especiallyinthepresenceofpathogens(e.g.,parasites).Parasitism-mediatedalterationsinthedynamicsoftheepigeneticlandscapehavenotgainedhighattentionincomputationalsystemsbiology[Poulin&Thomas2008;Boyko&Kovalchuk2011;Bierneetal.2012;Gomez-Diaz2012].Particularly,mathematicalmodelsneedtoadvancetocapturetheimportantqualitativebehavioroftheepigeneticlandscapethatinvolvesmanyfactors,suchasdiseasesthataffectphenotypespecificationandfitnessofspecies[Raghavanetal.2010;Geoghegan&Spencer2011;Huang2012;Rabajante&Babierra2015;Rabajanteetal.2015].Theoreticalpredictionsthatemployepigeneticperspectivecanguideecological,agricultural,epidemiologicalandbiomedicalstudiesininvestigatingtheimplicationsofhost-pathogeninteractioninphenotypevariationandtraitheritability[Woolhouseetal.2002;Mallard&Wilkie2007;Poulin&Thomas2008;Kasuga&Gijzen2013;Rabajanteetal.2015].Itisplausibletoincorporateepigeneticstothestudyofparasite-inducedevolutionsincetheepigeneticpattern(epigenotype)ingeneexpressionisanon-geneticfactorthatcouldbepassed-onfromparentstooffspring[Pal&Miklos1999;Bond&Finnegan2007;Bonduriansky&Day2009;Petronis2010;Danchinetal.2011;Kilvitisetal.2014;Englishetal.2015].Epigeneticattractors.Mathematicalmodelsofepigeneticlandscapedescribecell-fatedetermination/specificationasaprocessconvergingtocellular‘attractors’(seeindividualepigeneticlandscapesinFig.1)[Cinquin&Demongeot2005;Huang2012;Furusawa&Kaneko2012;Huang2013;Rabajante&Babierra2015;Rabajante&Talaue2015].Stemcelldifferentiationisillustratedasabranchingprogressionfromtotipotencytovariouscelllineagestodifferentterminallyspecializedcelltypes[Furusawa&Kaneko2012;Huang2013;Rabajante&Babierra2015].Throughtheregulationofgeneinteraction,cells‘decide’wheretoconvergefromthemultipleattractorspresentintheepigeneticlandscape.Anattractorcanbeanyfateofthecell,suchasmetastable,terminallyspecialized,cancer,quiescent,senescenceandapoptoticstates[Furusawa&Kaneko2012;Huang2013;Li&Wang2014;Marcoetal.2014;Rabajante&Babierra2015;Rabajanteetal.2015].Metastablestatescouldbetotipotent,pluripotent,multipotentorprogenitor.Theattractorsthatcharacterizeterminallyspecializedcellsrepresentdifferentphenotypicfates(e.g.,muscle,skin,blood,neuron,bone,fat).Moreover,cellsmaynottrackaone-directionallinearpathwayintheepigeneticlandscape,thatis,thepathwaycanbemultidirectionalorcircular[Enveretal.2009;Furusawa&Kaneko2012;Rabajante&Babierra2015].Cellsaresaidtobeplasticandcanbedriventoundergodedifferentiation(cellsregresstoearlierstate,e.g.,fromspecializedcellsbacktopluripotentstate)andtransdifferentiation(cellstransfertootherlineages,

.CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licensecertified by peer review) is the author/funder. It is made available under aThe copyright holder for this preprint (which was notthis version posted May 5, 2016. . https://doi.org/10.1101/051904doi: bioRxiv preprint

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e.g.,frommesenchymaltoneurallineage)[Joplingetal.2011;Xuetal.2014].Considerabledegreeofbiologicalnoiseandinductionbyexternalstimulimayalsoaffectthedirectionofthedevelopingcells[Rabajante&Babierra2015;Rabajante&Talaue2015].

Theconceptofcellularattractorisevolvingandhasvariousinterpretations.However,ageneralruleforbeinganattractoristhatthetrajectoryofdevelopingcellsintheepigeneticlandscapefromaneighborhoodofinitialconditions(basinofattraction)shouldconvergetothisattractorstate[Huang2012].Anyperturbationwithinthebasinofattractionshouldnotresultininstability,thatis,thestateisresilientandhomeostatic[Huang2013].Mathematically,theattractorsarerepresentedbystableequilibriumpoints[Huang2013;Rabajante&Babierra2015],stablelimitcycles[Rabajante&Babierra2015],strangechaoticattractors[Furusawa&Kaneko2012]ornoisyattractors[Huang2009].Eachattractorhasitsownbasinofattraction,whichcanbeofdifferentsizes.Moreover,theparametervaluesinthemathematicalmodelsaredictatedbythegenesandtheirinteraction.Geneinteractionisnotstaticbutratherdynamic[Rabajante&Babierra2015].Modificationintheparametervaluesmayormaynotpreservethestabilityofanattractor.Sometimesthemodificationsresultinbifurcationthattransformsthetopographyoftheepigeneticlandscapetoformanewattractororobliterateanexistingattractor[Huang2013;Rabajante&Talaue2015].Dynamicallychangingaparametervaluecouldleadcellstochangefatesbymovingtheirtrajectoryfromonebasinofattractiontoanotherbasinofattraction[Rabajante&Talaue2015].Host-parasitecoevolution.Theinteractionandcoevolutionbetweenhostsandparasitesarewidelyinvestigated.Inevolutionarybiology,armsracecompetitionandtheRedQueendynamicshavebeenhypothesizedtocausecoadaptation/coevolutioninhostsandpathogens[Avranietal.2012;Brockhurstetal.2014;Rabergetal.2014;Rabajanteetal.2015;Vojeetal.2015].Forthehosttosurviveparasitism,itincreasesitsdefensetraits;butforthepathogenthatreliesheavilyonthehost,itneedstocounteractthehostdefenseandincreaseitspathogenicity.Thismayresultinawinnerlessarmsracecompetition[Brockhurstetal.2014;Rabajanteetal.2015].Inseveralcaseswheretherearemultipletypesofhosts,parasitismcandecreasetheabundanceofthecommonhosttypepermittingararetypetobecomethenewdominant(negativefrequency-dependentselection).Commonhosttypes,especiallymonocultures,aremoresusceptibletotheattackofpathogens.Thisphenomenonisakintothe‘killingthewinner’hypothesis[Avranietal.2012;Rabajanteetal.2015].Host-pathogeninteractionisoneoftheexplanationsfortheextinctionanddiversityofspecies[Miuraetal.2006;Brockhurstetal.2014].

Ifnegativefrequency-dependentselectionpersists,itcouldresultinfluctuatingRedQueendynamicswhichisillustratedbycyclicphenotype-switching[Brockhurstetal.2014;Rabajanteetal.2015].ThefluctuatingRedQueendynamicsisacandidatemodelofrecurrentpunctuatedequilibriumprocessthatisdrivenbybioticinteraction[Rabajanteetal.2015].Thisrecurrentpunctuatedequilibriumprocesshasout-of-phase‘heteroclinic’cyclesofrapidnegativefrequency-

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dependentselection,followedbystasis,thennegativefrequency-dependentselectionagain.SimulationsshowthattheRedQueendynamicsarerobustagainstcertainlevelofnoisebuttheorderingofcyclicphenotype-switchingcouldvary,resultinginadiversifiedpossibilitiesofevolutionarypatterns[Rabajanteetal.2015].

Bridgingthegap.Phenotypicvariationisaffectedbyinheritedandnon-inheritedbiologicalinformation[Danchinetal.2011;Day&Bonduriansky2011;Englishetal.2015;Skinner2015;Soubry2015].Inheritedinformation,whichisinfluencedbygeneticandnon-genetic(e.g.,epigenetic)factors,isimportantinevolution[Danchinetal.2011;Richardsetal.2012;Klironomosetal.2013;Smith&Ritchie2013;Nishikawa&Kinjo2014;Santosetal.2015].Thatis,genotype-by-epigenotype-by-environmentregulatestransmissionofphenotypesfromonegenerationtoanother(inclusiveheritability)[Danchinetal.2011;Gervasietal.2015].Hereweaimtocontributeinbridgingagapbetweenthestudyofepigeneticsandevolutionarybiologyusingamathematicalmodel,specificallybylinkingtheepigeneticlandscapeattheindividualleveltothephenotypicfitnesslandscapeatthepopulationlevel(Fig.1).Thereareearlydiscussionsabouttheconnectionbetweenthedynamicsoftheepigeneticlandscapeandfitnesslandscape,suchasinthecaseoftumorprogression[Huang2013],buthereweconsidertheeffectofparasitismasamajordriverofphenotypicevolution.InFigure2,thegenotype-by-epigenotypeinteractionisrepresentedbyaphenotypedecision-switchnetworkwhereparasitismactsastheinfluencingenvironmentalfactor.Inourmathematicalmodel(seeMethods),weassumethatphenotypespecificationisdeterminedexclusivelybyepigeneticmechanismswheregenotypesarestable,i.e.,thestructureofgeneregulatorynetworkisfixed.Thisassumptionallowsustodecoupletheeffectofgeneticandepigeneticfactorsinthegenotype-by-epigenotypeinteraction,andfocusourobservationontheeffectsofparasitism-modifiedepigenotypesonhosttraits.ResultsandDiscussionAtthecellularlevel,cellsdecidefrommultiplechoicesofphenotypes(epigeneticlandscapeinFig.1).Inthepresenceofintenseevolutionarypressures,suchaspresenceofpathogens,geneticornon-geneticselectionmayoccur[Danchinetal.2011;Gomez-Diazetal.2012;Duncanetal.2014;Kilvitisetal.2014;Skinner2015;Rabajanteetal.2015].Ourdiscussionfocusesonnon-geneticselectiondrivenbyepigeneticmechanismswiththeinfluenceofpathogens.Ifaphenotypeisadvantageousandthereisadequateepigeneticmemory[Pal&Miklos1999;Bond&Finnegan2007;Geoghegan&Spencer2012;Gomez-Diazetal.2012;D’Urso&Brickner2014;Englishetal.2015],apopulationofspeciesmayselectthisphenotyperesultinginhigherphenotypicfitness(Fig.1).However,thisselectionprocessandaphenotypebecomingprevalentwithinapopulationarenotstraightforwardandstrictconditionsarenecessary[Takahashietal.2010;Vermeij&Roopnarine2013;Rabajanteetal.2015].Forexample,parasitismresultinginnegativefrequency-dependentselectionrequiresspecificstructureoffunctionalresponseandcombinationofparametervalues(e.g.,Figs.3and4)[Rabajanteetal.

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2015].Thecharacteristicsofthehosts(e.g.,growthrateandcompetitiveability)andpathogens(e.g.,pathogenicity,specificityanddeathrate)dictatethephenotypicoutcome.

Questionsariseonwhetheritistheepigeneticsstructurethatcausespathogenesisorwhetherthepathogensaretheonescausingepigeneticchanges[Gomez-Diazetal.2012].Wearguethatthesetwoquestionsarevalidsincetheepigenomeofhostsandthemechanismsofpathogensarecomponentsofaninteractingsystemwhichispossiblyinfluencedbyfeedbackloops(Fig.2).Particularparametersoftheepigeneticmodel(Eq.1inMethods)mayormaynotallowdiseasetoaffecttheoutcomeofgeneregulation.Onanotherside,theparameters(e.g.,pathogenicityandspecificity)andfunctionalresponseintheparasitismmodel(Eq.2inMethods)dictatetheseverityofdiseasethatcanalterthetopographyoftheepigeneticlandscape.Equilibriumdynamics.Asexpectedinmanycases,coexistenceofallphenotypes(sometimeswithequalfrequencies)andcompetitiveexclusionoccur(Fig.4aand4b).Coexistencerepresentedbyequilibriumpointwithallcomponentshavingequalvaluesmayhavelimitedrangeofinitialvalueandparameterspace,thatis,someofthephenotypescouldbecomeinferiorwhenconditionsarechanged.Incompetitiveexclusion,therearedominantphenotypesandrareorextinctphenotypesinthelongrun.Competitiveexclusionillustratessilencingorknockdownofsomegenes,andactivationorsometimesoverexpressionoftheothergenes.Insomecases,hostsarenotabletoregaingrowth,resultingintotalsilencing/extinction(Fig.4c).Thecoexistence,competitiveexclusionandtotalextinctionofphenotypesareexpectedinawiderangeofparameterspacebecausethefundamentalepigeneticmodel(Eq.1inMethods)describesamultistablesystem[Mostowyetal.2012;Rabajante&Talaue2015].

Multistabilitypertainstotheexistenceofmanystableequilibriumpoints.

Heremultistabilityimpliesnon-geneticvariation.Themeaningofnon-geneticvariationdrivenbyepigeneticmechanismsisthattwocellshaveidenticalDNAsequences(samesetofgenes)buttheydifferonwhatgenesareexpressed(e.g.,activatedorsilencedduringtranscription)resultingindifferentphenotypes.Forexample,skincellsandmusclecellsinanorganismhavesimilarsetofgenesbecausetheycamefromonemothercellbuttheyhavedifferentexpressedgenesthatdefinetheproteinsspecificforskincellsandspecificformusclecells.Thisideacanbeextendedtopopulationepigeneticswherenon-geneticvariationimpliesphenotypicheterogeneitynotexplainedbygenetics[Schlichting&Smith2002;Johnson&Tricker2010;Hughes2012;Duncanetal.2014;Kilvitisetal.2014].Non-geneticphenotypicheterogeneityisoneofthesurvivalstrategiesofspeciesagainstenvironmentalstress[Donaldson-Matascietal.2008;Soen2014].Forexample,someintroducedspecieswithlowgeneticvariationcanstillbecomeinvasivebecausetheycanhavehighphenotypicdiversityduetoepigeneticvariation[Kilvitisetal.2014].

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Oscillatorydynamics.Oscillationsinphenotypefrequenciesarealsopossibletoariseandtheymaycharacterizenon-equilibriumpolymorphism[Takahashietal.2010;Mostowyetal.2012]andnon-equilibriumphenotypicdiversity(Figs.4dand4e).Infact,oscillatorybehaviorisacharacteristicofstemcellsandprogenitorcells,whichimpliesthatoscillationshavehighpotentialtogeneratedifferentcelltypes[Furusawa&Kaneko2012;Rabajante&Babierra2015].Inpopulationbiologypoint-of-view,iftheminimumvalueoftheoscillationsarefarfromtheedgeofextinction,thenoscillationsexhibitpermanentcoexistence[Huisman&Weissing2001].Iftheminimumvalueoftheoscillationsareneartheedgeofextinction,thenoscillations(Fig.4e;e.g.,theRedQueendynamics)mayleadtoimpermanentcoexistence[Huisman&Weissing2001].Itiscalledimpermanentcoexistencebecauserandomperturbationscoulddrivethepopulationfrequencyofaspeciestozero(guaranteedextinction);however,therearecaseswhereRedQueendynamicsarerobustagainstrandomnoise[Rabajanteetal.2015].

Inoursimulation,fluctuatingnegativefrequency-dependentselection,specificallytheRedQueendynamics,happensinthemodelwhereeachhostphenotypehasanassociatedspecificpathogen(Fig.4e).Thishighpathogenspecificitycharacterizesahost-pathogeninteractionwithtightmatchingofhostandpathogentraits,asinthematching-allelesmodel[Weitzetal.2012;Rabajanteetal.2015].IntheRedQueendynamicsoccurringinourmodel(Fig.4e),theoccurrenceofcyclesthatareout-of-phaseandhaveidenticalamplitudeisconsistentwiththedefinitionofthecanonicalRedQueendynamics[Brockhurstetal.2014;Rabajanteetal.2015;Rabajanteetal.2016].ThecanonicalRedQueendynamicsstatethattheaveragefitnessofspeciesstaysthesame(representedbyidenticalamplitude)eventhoughthespeciesundergocontinuousevolution(representedbyout-of-phasecycles).Theout-of-phasecyclesimplythatonlyonespeciestypeisdominantforacertainperiodoftimeandtherestarerare;butaftersometime,thedominanttypeisreplacedbyarareone(cyclicphenotype-switching).NoticethattheRedQueendynamicsdonotonlyincludecyclicphenotype-switchinginhostsbutalsocyclicphenotype-switchinginpathogens(Fig.4e).SuchRedQueendynamicsisoneofthemanymanifestationsoftheRedQueenhypothesis[Avranietal.2012;Brockhurstetal.2014].ThereareseveralempiricalevidencesbasedonexperimentsandfossilrecordssupportingtheRedQueenhypothesis[Brockhurstetal.2014;Rabergetal.2014;Vojeetal.2015].Investigatingcycliccoevolutionarydynamicscouldalsohelpindesigningstrategiestomanagedrugresistance(forexample,seeFig.17in[Miraetal.2015]).

Inthepoint-of-viewofcellanddevelopmentalbiology,oscillationsliketheRedQueendynamicsmayrepresentexcessivetemporalplasticityofcells.Thisexcessiveplasticityisoneofthecharacteristicsofamutator(epimutator)phenotypethatmayleadtophenotypicdiversityortotumorheterogeneityincancer[Shackletonetal.2009;Marusyk&Polyak2010;Loeb2011;Peltomaki2012;Swanton2012].Oscillationsthatcharacterizeamutatorphenotypeoccurduetoaberrationinthegeneregulatorynetwork[Loeb2011;Rabajante&Babierra2015].Herewehaveshownthatpathogens(e.g.,oncovirus)canalsocausetheoccurrence

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ofmutatorphenotype[Liao2006],especiallywhenthereiswinnerlesscoevolutionbetweenhostimmunesystemandthepathogens(Fig.4e).Abnormaldampeningoftheseoscillationscouldleadtoirreversiblegenemisexpression.Inpopulationbiologypoint-of-view,theRedQueendynamicsshowpathogen-mediatedtemporaldiversityinhostandpathogenspecies.However,thenever-endingcyclesintheRedQueendynamicsmaynotproceedindefinitelyinecologicalsystems.Thisisbecausehost-pathogeninteractionsarefiniteactivities[Avranietal.2012;Brockhurstetal.2014;Vojeetal.2015].Soonerorlater,somehostandparasitetypesmayescapethearmsracecompetition.Severalspeciesmaylikewisebecomelosersinthearmsracecompetition(e.g.,speciesextinction)becausetheywerenotabletocopeupwiththecoevolutionaryprocess.Epigeneticinheritance.Oneoftheimportantcomponentsforbringingtheoutcomesofepigeneticlandscapetotheleveloffitnesslandscapeisepigeneticmemory,whichischaracterizedbyepigeneticmarks.Epigeneticmemoryisrequiredinnon-geneticinheritanceofphenotypesfromcelltocellorfromorganismtoorganism(transgenerational)[Pal&Miklos1999;Bond&Finnegan2007;Pilu2011;Geoghegan&Spencer2012;D’Urso&Brickner2014;Englishetal.2015].Muchoftheepigeneticmemoriesareresetinthegermlinebutsomeareconservedandimpartedtooffspring[Rakyanetal.2001;Molinieretal.2006;Bonduriansky&Day2009;Robertson&Richards2015].Transgenerationalinheritancehappenindifferenttimescales[Rando&Verstrepen2007;Rabajante&Babierra2015].Insomecases,epigeneticchangescouldleadtorapidphenotypevariationinpopulationsbutepigeneticmarkscouldalsodecayinfewgenerations[Rando&Verstrepen2007;Geoghegan&Spencer2012].

Inourdecision-switchmodel,self-stimulation(positivefeedback;Fig.2)and

multistabilitysupportepigeneticmemory[Cinquin&Demongeot2005;Kaufmannetal.2007;Lim&vanOudenaarden2007;Chengetal.2008;Smitsetal.2008;Hughes2012].Self-stimulationallowstheexpressionofaphenotypetobefitterthroughtime.Inamultistablesystem,eachphenotypeattractorhastheirownbasinofattraction.Theprobabilityofaphenotypebeingheritableishigherif(i)thephenotype’sbasinofattractionislarge,thatis,itisstableforawiderangeofinitialconditions,and(ii)thephenotypeattractorisstructurallystable,thatis,itisstableforawiderangeofparametervalues.Iftheinitialconditionandparametervaluesareresetduringmeiosis,epigeneticmarkscanescaperesettingifthenewinitialconditionandparametervaluesstillfallwithinthestabilityrangeofthephenotypeattractor.Largebasinofattractionandstructuralstabilityalsoproviderobustnessagainstenvironmentalnoise.Nevertheless,furtherstudiesareneededtomaptheextentofopportunitiesandlimitationsofepigeneticinheritance,especiallyonhowitaffectsthegeneticsandevolutionofpopulations[Crispetal.2016].Futureprospects.Empiricalinvestigationsontheinterfacebetweenpathogens,epigeneticsandevolutionareinprogress[vanNhieu&Arbibe2009;Cosseauetal.2010;Thomasetal.2011;Gomez-Diazetal.2012;Brockhurst&Koskella2013].Diversityofperspectivesisusefulbutaunifiedperspectiveinvolvingdifferent

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fields,suchasepigenetics,parasitology,pathology,epidemiologyandevolutionarybiology,willhelpbetterunderstandandsolveproblemsaboutdiseases[Gomez-Diazetal.2012;Noble2015;Skinner2015].Ourtheoreticalpredictionscouldaidongoingandfuturestudiesonidentifyingthenon-geneticeffectandmechanismsofdiseasesfromthecellulartopopulationlevel.Bacteria-phageinteractioninmarineecosystems,plant-pathogeninteractioninagriculturalsystems,drugdynamicsinsynthetic/artificialorganisms,andepigenetic-baseddiseasesininsectsaresomeoftheplausiblesubjectsforexperimentalvalidation[Takken&Rep2010;Koskella&Brockhurst2014;Williams2013;Gijzenetal.2014;Mukherjeeetal.2015;Cinietal.2015;Trozzet&Carbonell2015].Inthispaper,wehaveemployedaminimalmodeltostudytheexpressionofphenotypesincellsandpopulations.Otherscenarioscanbeexploredfurther,suchasthedynamicsalongthecontinuumbetweenmatching-allelesandgene-for-genesystems[Agrawal&Lively2002;Weitzetal.2012;Rabajanteetal.2015],theeffectofthenumberofhostsandpathogens[Woolhouseetal.2002;Rabajanteetal.2015],theeffectofdifferentinfectionnetworks(e.g.,random,modular,nested)[Weitzetal.2012],andtheinterplayamongmanygenetic,epigeneticandenvironmentalfactors[Priceetal.2003;Mostowy&Engelstadter2011;Soen2014].Theepigeneticfactorscouldincludeindetailthedifferentmechanismsthataltergeneexpression,suchasDNAmethylation,chromatinremodeling,histonemodificationsandRNAinterference[Rakyanetal.2001;Bonduriansky&Day2009;Rohlfetal.2012;Duncanetal.2014;Kilvitisetal.2014;Brazel&Vernimmen2016].MethodsDefinitionofvariablesandparameters.Supposewehavemvarietiesofhostphenotypesandntypesofpathogens/parasites.Therearetwostatevariablesinthemodel,HiandPj.WecancomputeforF(Hi)thatdenotesthepopulationfrequencyofhostphenotypei,whereF(Hi)=Hi/NH,NH=∑kHk(k=1,2,…,m).F(Pj)denotesthepopulationfrequencyofpathogenstrainj,whereF(Pj)=Pj/NP,NP=∑lPl(l=1,2,…,n).Populationfrequencymayalsobeinterpretedastheprobabilitythataphenotypewillbeexpressed.Forthedefinitionofparameters,seeTable1.Allstatevariablesandparametersarenon-negative.Cellulardecision-makingmodel.Thefollowingepigeneticmodel(Eq.1)describesthequalitativedynamicsofmultistabledecisionswitchesincell-fatedetermination,basedonthegeneregulatorynetworkinFig.2.EachnodeinFig.2representsasetofgeneregulatoryfactorsinvolvedinexpressingaspecificphenotype.Thenodeshavemutualrepressionbecauseitispresumedthatamaturespecializedcellexpressesauniquephenotypeandinhibitstheexpressionoftheotherphenotypes.Forfurtherdetailsaboutthismodelanddefinitionofvariablesandparametersinepigeneticspoint-of-view,referto[Cinquin&Demongeot2005;Macarthuretal.2008;Andrecut2011;Rabajante&Babierra2015;Rabajante&Talaue2015](notethattherearesomedifferencesinthesymbolsused).

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iiii

ik

ckik

cii

ciii gHK

HHHr

dtdH

iki

i

+−++

=∑≠

ργθ

(1)

i,k=1,2,…,m. Frequency-dependentselection.Withproperdefinitionofvariablesandreparametrization,weassumesimilardecision-makingmechanism(Eq.1)happensduringevolutionaryselectionofaphenotype.Ifaphenotypeisadvantageous,apopulationofspeciesmayselectthisphenotyperesultinginhigherphenotypicfitness(characterizedbyahigherphenotypefrequency)comparedtotheotherphenotypes.ThismodelissimilartotheLotka-Volterracompetitionmodelbutinvolvinganon-polynomialfunctionthatdescribesmultistabilityandself-stimulation(auto-activation/auto-catalysis)[Rabajante&Talaue2015].Multistabilityandself-stimulationsupportsthepreservationofepigeneticmemory.

Thebattleforphenotypedominanceisakintointer-hostcompetition.Anincreaseininter-hostcompetition( γ ikHk

cik

k≠i∑ inthedenominatorofequation(1))

reducestheneteffectofthehostgrowthratecoefficientri.Thevalue(riKi+gi)/ρiisanupperboundoftheequilibriumvalueofHi.TheparameterKiaffectstheupperbound,whichwecaninterpretasafactorinfluencingthecarryingcapacityallocatedtoeachhosttype.Hereweassumetheallocationisfixed.ThetotalcarryingcapacityisK=∑k(rkKk+gk)/ρk.Modelofhost-pathogeninteraction.Tomodelhost-pathogeninteraction,wecoupleequation1withpathogendynamics.Weassumethatthepathogendynamicsfollowaparasitismmodel,asfollows[Smoutetal.2010;Joveretal.2013;Rabajanteetal.2015;Rabajanteetal.2016]:

iij

jijii

ik

ckik

cii

1ciii gHPfK

HHHr

dtdH

iki

i

+⎟⎟⎟

⎜⎜⎜

−⎟⎟⎟

⎜⎜⎜

−++

= ∑∑≠

ργθ

(2)

dPjdt

= ϕij fijHi − dji∑#

$%

&

'(Pj (3)

where

fij =αijHi

qi−1

δ φi + βikjHkqi

k∑

#

$%

&

'(

(4)

i,k=1,2,…,m ; j=1,2,…,n.

.CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licensecertified by peer review) is the author/funder. It is made available under aThe copyright holder for this preprint (which was notthis version posted May 5, 2016. . https://doi.org/10.1101/051904doi: bioRxiv preprint

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ThepopulationfrequencyofhostphenotypeisdecreasedbyparasitismquantifiedbythefunctionalresponsefijHi.Thegrowthofpathogensdependsonhostutilization(numericalresponse ϕij fijHi

i∑ )withdeathratedj.Equation(4)defines

thepathogenfunctionalresponse.Ifqi=1andδ =1

φi + βikjHkqi

k∑

thenthefunctional

responsecurveisoftype-I(linear).Ifqi=1andδ=1thenthefunctionalresponsecurveisoftype-II(hyperbolic).Ifqi=2andδ=1thenthefunctionalresponsecurveisoftype-III(sigmoidal).

Inoursimulations,weareprimarilyconcernedwiththedynamicsofthe

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AcknowledgmentWewouldliketothankJuanchoA.ColleraofUPBaguioandEdithaC.JoseofUPLBfordiscussionaboutthemodelanditsanalysis.AuthorcontributionsMJVCranthesimulationsandproducedtheresults.JFRconceivedthestudyandbuiltthemodel.JMTcreatedthefigures.JFR,ALB,MJVCandJMTwrotethemanuscript.CompetingfinancialinterestsTheauthorsdeclarenocompetingfinancialinterests.FiguresFig.1.Thelinkbetweentheepigeneticlandscapeandfitnesslandscape.Inourcase,naturalselection(e.g.,negativefrequency-dependentselection)isinducedbyenvironmental/externalfactors,suchasparasitism[Poulin&Thomas2008;Bonduriansky&Day2009;Boyko&Kovalchuk2011;Gomez-Diazetal.2012;Kasuga&Gijzen2013;Soen2014].Weassumethatthecollectivedynamicsoftheindividualepigeneticlandscapesarereflectedinthephenotypicfitnesslandscapeatthepopulationlevelthroughepigeneticinheritance(becauseofepigeneticmemory)andparasitism-inducedselection.Ifaphenotypeisadvantageousandthereisadequateepigeneticmemory,apopulationofspeciesmayselectthisphenotyperesultinginhigherphenotypicfitness.

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Fig.2.Thephenotypedecision-switchnetwork.Thequalitativedynamicsofthegeneregulatorynetworkthatdeterminestheselectedphenotypesfollowthisdecision-switchnetwork[Cinquin&Demongeot2005;Macarthuretal.2008;Rabajante&Babierra2015].Supposethereare5phenotypes(nodes).Attheindividualepigeneticslevel,thenodeshavemutualrepressionbecauseitispresumedthataspecializedcellexpressesauniquephenotypeandinhibitstheexpressionoftheotherphenotypes.Theredpositivefeedbackarrowrepresentsself-stimulation.Forsimplicity,weassumethatthestructureofgeneregulatorynetworkisfixed,i.e.,fixedparametervalues(seeearlystudies[Rabajante&Babierra2015;Rabajante&Talaue2015]forthesimulationwithdynamicgeneregulatorynetworkbutwithoutparasitism).Correspondingly,weassumethattheaveragecollectivedynamicsatthepopulationlevelalsoadheretosuchdecision-switchnetwork.Notethatthefrequencyofphenotypeisacontinuumfrom0to1.Thefrequencyofaphenotypeisnegativelyinfluencedbyparasitism.Fig.3.Effectofparasitismonhostpopulation.(a)Hostpopulationdynamicswithoutparasitism.(b-d)Hostpopulationdynamicswithparasitismusingdifferentfunctionalresponse.HerehostpopulationdensityisdefinedasHi/K,whereKisthetotalcarryingcapacity.Forcomparison,wealsoassumethatparasitepopulationdensityisdefinedasPj/K.Fig.4.Differentparasitism-inducedpopulationdynamics.HerehostpopulationdensityisdefinedasHi/K,whereKisthetotalcarryingcapacity.Forcomparison,wealsoassumethatparasitepopulationdensityisdefinedasPj/K.(a)Equilibrium-convergenceshowingcoexistenceofallhostandparasitetypes.(b)Equilibrium-convergenceshowingcompetitiveexclusion.(c)Extinctionofallhostandparasitetypes.(d)Parasitism-inducedoscillations.(e)RedQueendynamics,aspecialtypeofoscillatorydynamics.TheRedQueendynamicsisdescribedbyatimeseriesofever-changingdominantphenotypefrequenciescharacterizedbyout-of-phasecyclesandidenticalamplitude[Rabajanteetal.2015;Rabajanteetal.2016].Thecyclesarepathogen-induced,thatis,acommonhosttypewithhighfrequencyisinfectedbypathogensresultingintheeventualdecreaseinfrequency.Asthefrequencyofthecommonhosttypedecreases,ararehosttypeisgiventheopportunitytoincreaseitsfrequencyandbecomethenewdominanttyperesultinginwinnerlesscycles.Thewinnerlesscyclesalsohappeninthepathogentypesbecausepathogenstracktheirspecifichosts.

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TableTable1.Definitionofparameters.Parameter Definition

ri coefficientassociatedwiththegrowthofhosttypei,ortheefficiencyinexpressingphenotypei

Ki factorinfluencingthecarryingcapacityallocatedtohosttypei

ρi deathrateofhosttypeinotduetopathogens,orthedecayrateoftheexpressionofphenotypei

ciexponentaffectingthecurveofself-stimulationofhostphenotypei;hyperbolicifci=1,sigmoidalifci>1.Forsimplicity,assumeciisinteger-valued.

cikexponentaffectingthenonlinearrepressionbehaviorofhostphenotypek≠iagainsthostphenotypei.Forsimplicity,wecanassumecik=ciforalli,k.

θinon-zerothresholdconstant;ifallHk≠i=0,then riHi

ci

θi +HiciKi =

riKi

2when

Hi =θi1ci

ϒik interactioncoefficientassociatedwiththerepressionofhostphenotypeibyhostphenotypek≠i

gibasalorconstitutivegrowthrate(sometimescalledthe‘leak’term),i.e.,theexpressionofhostphenotypeistillincreasesatthisrateatHi=0

αij strengthofpathogenicityorinfectivityofpathogenstrainjagainsthosttypei

φij hosti-to-pathogenjconversionratethatdefinesthegrowthrateofpathogenpopulation

dj deathrateofpathogenstrainj

qiexponentdefiningtheshapeofthefunctionalresponsecurve.Forsimplicity,wecanassumeallhost-pathogenrelationshipshavethesamefunctionalresponsetype.

ϕi non-zerothresholdconstantofthefunctionalresponsecurve

βikj

coefficientrepresentingtheenergyallotmentofpathogenstrainjtodifferenthosttypes;ifβikj=0,i≠k,thenthepopulationofhosttypekisnegligibleinalteringthefunctionalresponsecurveforinfectinghosttypei

SupplementarymaterialParametervaluesusedinthesimulations

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Fig.1

Fig.2

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Fig.3

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Fig.4a

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Fig.4b

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Fig.4c

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Fig.4d

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Fig.4e

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