Free Trade Agreements A Perspective for Dairy · 2016-12-23 · for the global dairy industry. The report is undoubtedly quite controversial. It starts by setting the scene on FTAs,

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Dairymark has a new multi-client report to be published. The report is entitled ‘Free Trade Agreements – A perspective for Dairy’. The report focuses on what FTAs mean for the global dairy industry. The report is undoubtedly quite controversial. It starts by setting the scene on FTAs, and raises the spectre that the benefits of global dairy trade liberalization are, at best, marginal – in short, the report claims that advantages are not universal and accrue to no-one except a small grouping of beneficiaries. This report gives a lot of currency to the New Zealand situation – and through this, a large target focus is given to Fonterra Co-operative Group. This is not intentional – rather it is unavoidable. Accounting for such a significant share of global dairy trade leaves that target exposed. Some extracts from the report are included here for referral: Firstly, referring to Fonterra’s interest in the U.S. market: Average value of product supplied onto the (U.S.) market 2009 at almost US$6,300 per mt is well ahead of any other of the top 25 dairy import markets. Figure 6: Top 25 Dairy Import Markets – Volume & Value (2009)

Source: ITC trade data Thus the reason why Carolyn Mortland1 , Fonterra’s Washington DC-based Vice President of Government Relations & Trade and recently elected to a new three year term on the Cheese Importers Association of America, suggests that:

1 Quoted in The Southland Times, 03 March, 2009

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Fonterra wants to promote innovation in the U.S. dairy industry Concerns continue about changes to the U.S. Farm Bill that could see the introduction

of tariff rate quotas on MPC, casein & caseinates – all products that Fonterra was shipping to the U.S. market with little or no quota or negligible tariff

The threat of the Dairy Import Assessment initiative will mean a levy be put on imports to pay for a U.S. dairy promotion program, with an adverse impact on Fonterra alone of US$2 million p.a.

Secondly, US Dairy Export Council’s concerns about a ‘dairy inclusive’ TPP that includes New Zealand: Just as Fonterra and a greater New Zealand is intent on delivering an all-inclusive TPP, the U.S. Dairy Export Council insists that it opposes the initiative for dairy. More specifically:

U.S. Dairy Export Council notes that the U.S. has in place FTAs with four of the prospective TPP participants, being: Australia, Chile, Singapore & Peru

The only new FTA partners would be N.Z., Vietnam, & Brunei – and of these Vietnam is the sole market that offers any real new economic opportunity

As the U.S. dairy industry is currently framed, the present TPP proposal would be one-sided – benefitting only N.Z.

U.S. Dairy Export Council vehemently voices its opposition to a situation whereby2: ‘(the) U.S. dairy industry (would be) pitted against the monopolistic practices that exist in New Zealand. Under this regime one company is permitted to control over 90% of the country’s milk production, which has given it a competitive advantage and has allowed it to account for more than ⅓ of global dairy trade’

Thirdly, the essence of the TPP from a dairy perspective: Given current U.S. milk production at ~ 86 billion kg, this represents a reduction of 0.43 billion kgs. Given that total N.Z. milk production is ~ 19.9 billion kg, the fall in U.S. milk production represents around 2% of N.Z. milk output. The bare facts from the Petersen report indicates direct substitution – N.Z. milk for U.S. milk - with N.Z. milk directed towards the highest value export market in the world. Good for N.Z. if this can be achieved, and little wonder that U.S. dairymen are up in arms over the threat. Next, with regards to a new supply/demand equation in global dairy trade terms: Thus, and with relevance to the current report, these include:

Net global dairy inflows are expected to expand at a faster rate than export trade flows through the forthcoming 10 year period

Strengthening demand for dairy is expected to arise from developing economies – these will be located in Latin America, Asia, North Africa and Middle East regions

Low cost producers such as Brazil and Ukraine are expected to get greater traction in terms of global export supply within the foreseeable future – such is expected to unsettle conventional suppliers (Oceania, EU – more recently U.S.), and especially those that do not have a low cost supply (milk, processing) base

2 Quoted in U.S. Dairy Export Council Backgrounder to the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement

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11. Argentina - A Global Dairy Industry

& Trade Overview

‘Free Trade Agreements – A Perspective for Dairy’ – June 2011 66 © Dairymark, a division of Shainwright Consulting & Research Group Pty Ltd, PO Box 3274, Norwood SA 5067, Australia

Visit our website at www.dairymark.com

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China 9.3%

Chile 7.1%

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All Others 58.4%

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Brazil 31.1%

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China 10.3%

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11. Argentina - A Global Dairy Industry & Trade Overview Argentina is a republic. It is located in southern South America, bordering the South Atlantic Ocean, between Chile & Uruguay. The nation as we now know it has origins in the 1816 declaration of independence from Spain by the Rio Plata. Immigration from Europe, and especially Italy and Spain, has populated the country through to the 1930s. Political instability and political power shifts have hallmarked much of Argentina’s 20th century history. Democracy returned in 1983 following the failed attempt to gain control of the Falkland Islands – challenges to democracy have persisted, the most serious arising from a response to the economic crisis that shook the country in 2001-02; this saw violent civil unrest and a succession of presidents

Economic Summary Argentina is rich in natural resources, has a highly literate population, an export-focused agricultural sector & a diversified industrial base. Through the 20th century the nation suffered recurring economic issues (high inflation, growing external debt, capital exodus, fiscal & current account deficits). A serious economic, social, and political crisis occurred in the early-2000s (GDP in 2001 ~ 18% lower than 1998, & 60% of inhabitants below the poverty line). Then GDP grew strongly with economic restructuring. Since 2007 growth slowed with the GFC. Nationalisation of private pensions occurred late-2008 to lift government reserves - but the move negatively impacted private investment expenditure

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10. Algeria - A Global Dairy Industry & Trade Overview

10.1. Milk Production Overview



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Cow milk Buffalo milk All other milk

10.1. Milk Production Overview Source: FAOSTATS Source: FAOSTATS Share of Total Global Milk Production

Major Milk Processors Giplait SPA (est. 1998) has 20 plants (incl. cheese project at Es-Senia). Capacity > 1.4 billion litres p.a., LME. Produces: fresh milk & reconstituted dairy from imported materials. Product range: fresh milk, flavoured milk, UHT milk, milk powder, soft cheese, processed cheese, cream, butter, laban. Market leader in reconstituted milk

2006 Groupe Danone lifted stake in Danone Djurdjura from 51% to 95% citing growth opportunities & furthers Danone’s aim to consolidate in North African & Middle East region. Leads Algerian fresh dairy sector ~ 40% share. Key brands Danao, Petit Gervais aux Fruits, Activia, Danette and Fruix. A founding partner in the jv (est. 2001), Boussad Batouche, holds 5% share

Mitidja Laitage (est. 2000), manufactures milk and laban at Boumerdes plant

Coprolait EurL, manufactures milk and dairy products at Boumerdes factory

• Milk production has grown significantly - up

from 1.5 million mt 2000 to ~ 2.0 million mt 2009, representing average annual growth of 0.056 million mt (averaging +3.6% volume growth p.a.) – responding to GOA plans (PNDA & PNDAR) & policy driving agricultural development & advancing food security in line with an agricultural renewal strategy to lessen dependence on imports

• Volume growth will continue, forecast to achieve ~ 2.45 million mt by 2015 – in response to market signals (Ministry of Agriculture incentive payments to producers) & also support & infrastructure (extending pasture land, irrigation infrastructure, importing joined heifers, AI programs, supply of genetically superior breeding stock, embryo transfer technologies, growing number of milk collection centres)

• Dairy producers are typically small enterprises, with > 80% producing < 25,000 litres p.a.

• 78% of milk output is from cows - smaller volumes are from sheep, goats & camels

• Atlas Brown is the main cattle breed (four sub-breeds: Guelmoise, Cheurfa, Chélifienne & Sétifienne). Exotic breeds are Dutch Friesian (66% of improved breeds, common through coastal areas), French Friesian, Pie Rouge de l’Est & Montbéliarde - introduced for genetic improvement, but performance fails to reach full potential due to metabolic difficulties coping in local environment

• Ongoing concerns abound, incl: shortage of forage resources, pasture constraints, high feed costs, low productivity of local cattle breeds, poorly developed milk collection system

• Share of global milk production has risen from 0.26% 2000 to 0.29% 2009, & per capita production advanced from 49.7 kg 2000 to 59.1 kg 2009

• There has been significant growth in milk delivered to dairies – up from 7.4% 2000 to 17.6% 2009, indicating that milk growth is targeting the processing sector

• Private sector interests dominate Algeria’s dairy industry – an estimated 120 factories operate throughout the country

A partnership agreement has been signed between CNMA and Danone Djurdjura, with the goal of reducing milk imports - raising milk production & productivity with modern farm operations

Danone Djurdjura plant

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18. Japan - A Global Dairy Industry & Trade Overview

18.2. Trade Trends



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18.2. Trade Trends Figure 38: Japan Trade Trends – Share of Total Imports by Key Category (2000-2009, ‘000 mt) Source: Global Trade Data (ITC)

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19. Mexico - A Global Dairy Industry & Trade Overview

19.2. Trade Trends



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by Source

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Volume

(mt) %

share Volume

(mt) %

share Volume

(mt) %

share Volume

(mt) %

share Volume

(mt) %

share

New Zealand

33,552 47.5% 25,454 52.3% 39,197 66.6% 26,534 64.9% 44,594 74.1%

United States

324 0.5% 2,434 5.0% 5,365 9.1% 8,013 19.6% 7,762 12.9%

Australia 6,209 8.8% 5,284 10.9% 3,598 6.1% 1,213 3.0% 4,451 7.4%

Uruguay 1,527 2.2% 1,137 2.3% 1,352 2.3% 1,534 3.8% 1,411 2.3%

Belgium 9,768 13.8% 6,125 12.6% 4,283 7.3% 2,277 5.6% 919 1.5%

All Others 19,200 27.2% 8,263 17.0% 5,025 8.5% 1,292 3.2% 1,020 1.7%

Total 70,581 100.0% 48,698 100.0% 58,820 100.0% 40,862 100.0% 60,157 100.0%

Casein Imports

by Source

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

New Zealand

2,822 15.3% 3,914 29.9% 4,574 28.9% 1,883 15.5% 3,542 28.6%

Ireland 3,500 19.0% 1,462 11.2% 3,158 20.0% 2,878 23.7% 2,289 18.5%

France 2,374 12.9% 1,120 8.5% 692 4.4% 1,077 8.9% 1,660 13.4%

United States

3,494 19.0% 2,375 18.1% 3,902 24.7% 4,034 33.3% 1,434 11.6%

Germany 1,028 5.6% 728 5.6% 766 4.8% 594 4.9% 817 6.6%

All Others

5,198 28.2% 3,510 26.8% 2,718 17.2% 1,665 13.7% 2,640 21.3%

Total 18,415 100.0% 13,110 100.0% 15,809 100.0% 12,131 100.0% 12,381 100.0%

Lactose Imports by

Source

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

United States

28,225 95.6% 21,049 84.6% 19,200 72.8% 20,651 93.2% 27,392 93.8%

Germany 563 1.9% 1,278 5.1% 3,941 14.9% 660 3.0% 864 3.0%

Netherlands 608 2.1% 1,404 5.6% 1,679 6.4% 645 2.9% 700 2.4%

New Zealand

141 0.5% 146 0.6% 221 0.8% 67 0.3% 182 0.6%

Canada 40 0.1%

All Others 1,004 4.0% 1,339 5.1% 144 0.7% 18 0.1%

Total 29,538 100.0% 24,881 100.0% 26,380 100.0% 22,168 100.0% 29,195 100.0%

Cheese Imports by

Source

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

Volume (mt)

% share

United States

24,984 31.8% 34,991 44.6% 39,816 46.3% 40,989 60.1% 42,945 58.8%

Chile 17,345 22.1% 12,746 16.2% 16,033 18.6% 11,056 16.2% 8,614 11.8%

Uruguay 11,610 14.8% 7,396 9.4% 9,494 11.0% 7,025 10.3% 6,517 8.9%

New Zealand

10,858 13.8% 13,977 17.8% 10,257 11.9% 1,488 2.2% 6,192 8.5%

Netherlands 3,769 4.8% 3,498 4.5% 8,198 9.5% 6,066 8.9% 5,173 7.1%

All Others 10,023 12.8% 5,925 7.5% 2,238 2.6% 1,621 2.4% 3,633 5.0%

Total 78,588 100.0% 78,533 100.0% 86,036 100.0% 68,245 100.0% 73,074 100.0%

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20. New Zealand - A Global Dairy Industry & Trade Overview

20.3. New Zealand’s FTA Status



20.3. New Zealand’s FTA Status N.Z. has a comprehensive framework of FTAs – including FTAs ‘in play, and others at various stages of negotiation. The following table highlights the current status of N.Z.’s FTAs. In addition N.Z. is a party to the proposed Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement. Figure 47: The current status of N.Z. FTAs Name of Agreement

Significant Dates General Commentary

Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations

In force since 01 January 1983 This CER is widely recognized as one of the most open economic and trade relationships in force between any two nations, helping to build a strong flow in merchandise trade, services, investment, labour and tourism between the two. CER replaced a long-standing NZAFTA, with further agreements and arrangements between the two countries that substantially extend CER

New Zealand-Singapore Closer Economic Partnership

In force since 01 January 2001 – negotiations were completed within 1 year of announcing intention to negotiate

The most comprehensive trade agreement that N.Z. has outside the CER, building upon a strong longstanding relationship and historical ties between the two countries. A comprehensive agreement encompassing goods, services, investment, and technical & hygiene/quarantine barriers to merchandise trade

New Zealand-Thailand Closer Economic Partnership

In force since 01 July 2005 In parallel with the CEP, the two countries have concluded Arrangements on Labour, Environment and Customs Cooperation.

Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4)

P4 – more latterly referred to as TPP – originated as an agreement between Brunei Darussalam, Chile, N.Z. & Singapore, and was signed in 2005

Negotiations for an expanded agreement (TPP) to include U.S., Australia, Peru & Viet Nam began in March 2010, with a round of negotiations completed early December 2010 in Auckland (N.Z.) – then the sixth round of negotiations took place in Singapore 24 March to 01 April, 2011, with a further round expected in June 2011 to be held in Ho Chi Minh City

New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement

In force since 01 October 2008 The negotiation process spanned 15 rounds of negotiation, liberalising & facilitating trade in goods and services, and improving the business environment and promoting cooperation between the two parties in a broad range of economic areas

ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement

In force since 01 January 2010 for the following nations: Australia, Brunei, Myanmar, N.Z., Singapore, the Philippines, & Viet Nam. The Agreement entered into force for Thailand on 12 March 2010

The Agreement will enter force for the remaining ASEAN Parties after they have notified completion of their respective internal ratification protocols

New Zealand-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement

In force 01 August 2010 Aimed at liberalising and facilitating trade in goods, services and investment between N.Z. and Malaysia, supported by Agreements on trade and the environment, and trade and labour matters

New Zealand-Hong Kong, China Economic Partnership

Signed on 29 March 2010, but yet to come into force

Hong Kong is a SAR of China but remains autonomous in terms of trade matters. As well as boosting trade between N.Z. and Hong Kong it is expected that this will enhance the potential for Hong Kong to be used as a platform for supply into the Mainland China market

New Zealand-Gulf Co-operative Council Free Trade Agreement

Negotiations successfully concluded on 31 October 2010 – officials are completing legal verification pending Government ratification

Aimed at securing access between N.Z. and GCC markets (Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) Sam

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25.7.4. Dom

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