Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE

Adjunct Professor, Florida Tech1/28/2010, Rev. 1.4

fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377

my.fit.edu/~fleslie

27 The Future of Energy 2010

Crude Oil NYMEX: $74 on 1/27/10$102 on 9/29/2008$90 Low on 9/15/08$147 High on 7/11/08$65.71 on 4/25/07

CNNMoney.com

Introduction

Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sun

Sustainable” implies not using energy faster than the energy can be replenished

In a broader sense, sustainability is not using all our resources, but leaving something for future generations

Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of “stored sunlight”, they are depleting and not sustainable

Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends and assumptions (how much are they wrong?)

The future is ill-defined!

100125

Are they having fun?

Why did thishappen?

Does Energy Affect our Lives?

FOXnews 8/15/2003

Happy New Yorkers out for a Stroll!

080820

1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over!

“Hubbert’s Peak” indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak might be 2007-9

Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensive

Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing erratically in the long term!

Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trendHydrogen will be made from natural gas first,

then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun --- a matter of cost

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1. Overview of Energy Sources

Currently, energy primarily comes from combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energy

Electricity and hydrogen are energy carriers, not primary sources!

In some areas of the World, wind energy is being significantly developed: Europe, United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, India, China are a few

Energy sources are so critical to civilizations that many wars have been fought over these resources

Lack of common local energy sources can hold back the development of a nation

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1.1.1 Energy Source Categories

080805

Alternative

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear Fission

Conventional

RenewableNonrenewable

Wood

Hydro

Human/Animal

Wind Water Pumping

1.1.2 Energy Source Categories

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Alternative

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear Fission

Conventional

RenewableNonrenewable

Wood

Hydro

Human/Animal

Wind Water Pumping

1.1.3 Energy Source Categories

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Geothermal

Oil Shale, CTL

Tar Sands

Methane Hydrates

Alternative

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear Fission

Conventional

RenewableNonrenewable

1.1.4 Energy Source Categories

080820

Sustainable means using less than is renewed; if water is withdrawn from a dam faster than it is refilled, the level drops and hydro power is lessened, and finally fails

Nonrenewable

Renewable

Conventional

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear Fission

Wood

Hydro

Human/Animal

Wind Water Pumping

Alternative Geothermal

Oil Shale, CTL

Tar Sands

Methane Hydrates

Wind Solar Biomass

Wave/Tide Ocean Current

1.1.5 Energy Sources (2006)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html080825

https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov

A Hydrogen Economy in 2050?

1.2 Fossil Fuels

Long-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be eventually depleted, while renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely

As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 12,000 feet?

Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total price of it and what’s made with it

080813

1.2.1 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries

Our dependency on cheap oil has lead to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers(US dependency on cheap drugs has lead to a

slavish relationship with the drug dealers)

So do we need a “12-step way” to free us from our oil addiction?

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Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? --- OR ---

Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later?

1.2.2 US Crude Oil Sources (2008)

US demands 19.9 million bbl petroleum/day but produces 5 million crude; 9.8 million bbl crude/day is imported

Some crude is exported, refined elsewhere, and imported as gasoline since the US is short refinery capacityStill, how to economically justify building a 40-

year life refinery for 20-year depleting oil?

The offshore continental shelf (OSC) plus western lands might add 3 million barrels per day, but that wouldn’t drive the price much lower

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1.2.3 US Energy Imports --- 9/2008 or so

Crude oil, for example; 11 million barrel/day (Mbd)Canada 1.883 MbdSaudi Arabia 1.479 Mbd (9.45 Mbd

total)Mexico 1.124 MbdVenezuela 1.085 MbdNigeria 0.946 Mbd Iraq 0.693 MbdAnd Angola, Brazil, Algeria, Russia,

Kuwait, Ecuador, Columbia, Chad, Libya

The NE US also imports electricity and natural gas from Canada

100125 Photo: www.tesc.edu

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

1.3 The Hubbert Curve Predicts Fossil Fuel Decline

Dr. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, predicted in 1956 that the US oil peak would be reached in 1970. Later, others predicted the World oil peak would occur in the first decade of the 21st Century.

Past the production peak at 2006-2011 (?), oil prices will increase as extraction becomes more difficult and the price is bid up.

www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm

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1.3.1 US Oil Production Peaks!

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1.3.2 Some World Oil Production Peaks!

080813See The Oil Drum for more

1.3.2 Oil Peak

www.theoildrum.com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly.pdfwww.oecd.org/ may help

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1.3.4 Constant Dollar Energy (2008)

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.html

2. Energy Demand

The World produces about 85.4 M bbl/day, but uses about 85.7 million barrels petroleum per day (crude oil + liquids); working on storage

The US uses about 20.7 million barrels of petroleum per day while producing 8.3 million barrels per day

OPEC produces 32.7 Mbd, ~40% of World demand

Major oil pipeline through Country of Georgia

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2.1 Supply & Demand Effects

Crude oil trades on a world marketElectronic trading permits 24-hour tradingIf the demand exceeds or approaches the

supply, prices increase indefinitelyThe US doesn’t affect the market price as

much as world events that threaten the oil supply Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, war threats, closing the Strait

of Hormuz, bombings and deaths, hurricanes, etcChina and India are increasing their

demands for oil, buying from the same suppliers that we use and competing with us on price

080907

Photo from NOAA

2.1.1 Hurricane Katrina & Petroenergy

080820http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html

The heart of US oil production and refineries was struck by Katrina; lost 25% production

Production had been shut down to prevent losses and to allow the workers to leave; lost some offshore Gulf rigs

Pipelines were shut down in case of storm damage

Gasoline shortages occurred throughout the Southeast

This shortage lasted several months, but eventual fossil fuel depletion will cause lasting problems and high prices

2.1 US Energy Usage

www.eia.doe.gov

2.2 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs

Information sources should be skeptically analyzed Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do

they really want? What’s their agenda?Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for

good health, but they really want no animals killed for foodPETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so that

real chickens won’t be killed

Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant dataNonconforming info is disregarded or modified to make it

“right” as it doesn’t match their long-held dogmaThey take surveys of their members (~<0.5% of population)

and contend that represents the public as a wholeSometimes pure hatred of the opposition overwhelms the

group and taints every expressed viewpoint

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2.3 The Bountiful Life

We have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energy

Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range “eyes”, yet they were developed just to save time

Multiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family members

Vehicles enable greater “urban sprawl”Living farther away from work requires more energy-

consuming travel (and money) to get thereWhy should a business be located “downtown”?A clean industry like Harris Corporation in Melbourne, FL

is essentially located in a residential area where workers can live nearby

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2.3.1 Conspicuous Consumption

Some objects are more for show than utilityV-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads12,000 square foot homesExpensive imported foods; 1500-mile saladLong-distance air travel for an hour meeting“Business” meetings at golf & ski resorts

Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowski’s wife$56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our

highwaysPotential for a stylish new model with welded,

inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for show?Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right)

Driven to an Oregon renewable energy fair by an RE fan!

Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldn’t they be allowed to buy it?

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http://www.unimog.net/

3. Energy Considerations

SustainabilityGlobal WarmingEnergy ConservationEnergy EfficiencyEnergy Plans

080815

3.3.2 “Green Buildings”

Buildings use a large amount of energy to offset energy loss through the envelopeWindows, walls, ceiling, floors, and doorsAir lock doors reduce heat loss as people pass

Lighting, motors, and bodies provide internal heat that must be removed in summer but is useful heat in the winter

When water is heated by the sun, it avoids the consumption of electricity or natural gas

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3.3.2.1 Green Energy Cities: US

Chicago, IL Goal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15% Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won 2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgm’t; 22% distributed

generation;25% cogeneration

Sacramento, CA Goal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011 ~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying RE

Portland, OR Goal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 2010 10% RE now; 1 million kWh waste methane fuel cells; green

tags

Austin, TX “Goal” 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100MW

by 2020

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3.4 Energy Plans

Polls show the public wants the energy problems fixed; 76% want more oil drilling

Presidential candidates had ignored energy problem, speaking in generalities and platitudes, but are now responding with plans

Plans reflect their present core beliefs, perhaps, but change frequently

Plans differ a lot! I’ll show just one

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3.4.7 The Paris Hilton Plan!

“Limited drilling offshore with strict environmental oversight”

“Create tax incentives to get Detroit to make electric and hybrid cars”

“That way, the offshore drilling carries us until the new technologies kick in, which will then create new jobs and energy independence”

“Energy crisis solved!”

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Ref: Christian Science Monitor

[Just trying to be comprehensive here --- work with me!]

4.3.1 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras

Cornucopians believe that “needs” and “wants” will always be provided forJust in time, a technical breakthrough will

allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more!

The “Horn of Plenty” is always full to overflowing!

“Don’t worry, be happy!”“If it feels good, do it!” --- Nike trademark

080907 http://desktoppub.about.com/

4.3.2 “The Horn of Plenty” Shall Always Provide

As European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or betterSteam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower,

electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, telephone, automobiles, airplanes, television, computers, internet, etc.

New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches

080820

http://desktoppub.about.com/

4.3.4 “The Sky is Falling”: What Shall We Do? What Shall We Do?

The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resourcesDeath, famine, war, and pestilence would

resultAn apocalyptic result

(It’s been postponed so far!)

1960 Scary movie: “No Blade of Grass”A group of economists, scientists,

and doomsayers examine the outlookRunningOnEmpty.comDieOff.comCaution: these sites may not be suitable

for children or adults!Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency

080907 http://www.postermaniacs.com/originals/onesheets/no_blade_of_grass.jpg

4.4 Agendas, Slants, & Scams

Agendas (often are kept for the “faithful”)Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being

killedLikes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms

interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet)Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered

species to “be discovered” Oh! look there!; can’t clear this!Slants

Carefully selects info to push the internal “message”; rejects and discredits the opposite view

Selects minor views of opponents and trumpets themScams

Venture capital gatherers with small chance of successSolicitations of public donations with 70% going to staff

salariesCar runs on water!

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4.5 Direct Effects Upon Consumers

High energy bills stretch budgets as prices riseElectricity (affecting price of products bought)Gasoline Natural Gas or heating oil

High gasoline price definition:“Too high” if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but

“not high” if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mpg SUVs and trucks)

The “Time” magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be overPublic thinks this is a “coming issue” when it’s past“Smart money” is bailing out; don’t rush in

080907

4.6 Lifestyle Changes Needed!

Practice energy conservation and save your money for “fun” purchases (and investments for retirement)

Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for other needed/wanted uses

Think of the marginal utility of “supersizing” your lifeLess quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow

your money to be used for other things you really wantWould you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole

watermelon? Isn’t there a limit to “wants”?

Your time may be far more valuable than your moneyLive close to where you work so you don’t waste your life

stuck in traffic “Fifteen-minute rule”Work at what you would do for free, but don’t tell your boss!

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4.7 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now?

People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices

Those that we don’t know, greatgreatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great7grandchildren, worse yet

What we do today affects future generations --- shouldn’t we care?

(Is it really “All about MEME!”)A surging world population will fight to get or control

energy sources, leading to wars far worse than IraqPeople of developing countries will crave to live as those do

in the highly over-consuming U.S. and marketeers will ensure this cravingEffect of global TV influences and makes people aware of

distant consumption trends; “I want to live like those people in those TV shows!”

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5. Transportation

Rowing, animal power, human powerWind, sailing ships, airplanesWood, coal, diesel and gasoline fuelsElectricity and motors

080822

This steam car was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769, shown bumping a wall in Paris

Oops!

http://www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/cars/carhist.htm

5.1 Transportation Energy Usage

Petroleum fuels predominate

Costs determined the development and selection of primary fuels

Loss of petroleum can depress the economy for years

080820 http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation.html

5.1.1 Energy Shortages

In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against EgyptGasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at

gasoline pumps, and impatient drivers assaulting each otherPrices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited to

so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-odd fill-up daysTrans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (early enviro protest

claimed animals would be afraid; similarity to ANWR claims)

Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold SchwarzeneggerBlackouts get the voters’ attention faster than pleas!Shortages or total outages are perceived very differently by the public

than blackouts from equipment failures

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5.1.2 Fuel Prices from EERE in May 2008

080815 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw526.html

5.1.3 Constant $ Gasoline in 2005

Adjusted price has now exceeded the 2000 peak

080822 http://ncga.fhdigital.com/sitefiles/1000/gas_graph.jpg

5.1.3.1 Price versus Utility?

080915

5.1.4 Daily US Commuting Distance

SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Omnibus Household Survey.  Aggregated data cover activities for the month prior to the survey.

080805

93% of commuters drive less than 35miles

5.3 Alternative Fuel Vehicles

AFVs don’t use gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, the conventional fuels

An early version was the 1908 Bishop electric car – Jay Leno owns and drives one

In 1957, I saw propane forklift trucks inside a huge Frigidaire plant where I was a co-op student The fumes were claimed to be “clean” Western states have conversions of pickup

trucks to start on gasoline and run on propane

080820

5.3. Alternative Fuel Vehicles

This 2007 Rally was from the Florida Solar Energy Center (Cocoa) to Florida Tech’s Panther Plaza in Melbourne

5.3.1 Solar Challenge Rally

DOE started Sunrayce rallies to mirror the World Solar Challenge Races in Australia

Later, Sunrayce was renamed the American Solar Challenge, and adding Canada, it became the North American Solar Challenge

In 2008, University of Michigan’s Continuum won on the Dallas to Calgary route

080820 2007, Dutch Nuna won!

Started at Disney Lake Buena Vista, FL

Eleven day trip with overnight stops

Chase van with a warning sign accompanied the car

The van also read out the solar car performance data by radio link

Two-way radio provided voice communications

Ended at GM Tech Center, Warren, MIA

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1990 Sunrayce Solar Race

Map by Dorian West, 1990

5.3.1.1 Florida Tech Solar Car

5.3.1.1 Florida Tech at the 1990 Sunrayce

This car was cosmetically restored in 2007, but is no longer operational

The Sunshine Special originally required $225,000 in funding080820

5.3.1.2 Florida Tech’s Racing Electric Vehicle

Racing Electric Vehicle, 10/07/2007080806

5.3.1.2 2007 Racing Electric Vehicle (REV)

Formula Lightning autocross racer

Touchscreen steering wheel

Battery monitoring comm

-- Design Objectives --

- Acceleration from 0 to 60 mph in under 5 seconds

- Top speed of 85 mph

- Maximum power available between 20 and 40 mph.

- Lightweight (under 650 lb with driver)

- 15 minute battery life running at high performance speeds

5.3.2 Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs)

PHEVs have a large battery that is charged by 120Vac utility power 15A outlet anywhere

There is also a small engine-alternator that can charge the battery using a fuel like gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), or biofuel

The engine only burns fuel if the voltage falls too low and the battery needs charging

Estimated battery-only range might be 40 to 100 miles a day between nighttime charges

Cleanliness depends on most local utility source

080820

5.3.2.1 A Plug-in Prius

Third-party kits available for changing a Prius to a PHEV (voids factory warranty?) Charger uses 120Vac <15 amps, a standard

house outlet

Toyota working on a 2010 production model

100121 Photo: Motortrend

5.3.3 1974-1983 Sebring Citicar

Sebring Vanguard company in Florida

Response to 1973 gasoline crisis met by battery car with fiberglass body

080820 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar

5.3.4 Electric Car plus a “Pusher”

080822

5.3.5 Tesla Racer

The Tesla Racer is all electric, sporty, and pricey (at first)

080820Photo by Tesla Motors

5.3.6 GM Volt --- an Electric Car

080820

Introductory GM Volt and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz

Photo by Jeffrey Sauger, ©GM Corp.

5.3.7 Hydrogen Cars

Hydrogen-fueled cars are similar to compressed natural gas (CNG) cars

Hydrogen is an energy carrier like electricity and must be made

Tank pressures are ~6,000 to 10,000 psi

100127 Photo, F. Leslie, 2006

Present prototypes cost ~$1 million; fuel costs extra! This is the Progress Energy car I requested for the Sustainability Forum at Olin Life Sciences

5.4 Trains

Biodiesel has cleaner emissions; easy changeoverElectric trains require expensive trackside or

overhead conductors for direct connectionLarge battery cars might supply energy for the

motors and could be quickly changed at stops for fully charged units

Present diesels dump braking power into cab-top resistors (no batteries), but with attached battery cars, recharging is economical

A hybrid version would carry engine-alternators for recharging using CNG, biodiesel, or perhaps H2The engine-alternators for recharging would stay in the

locomotive so it could move independently from the battery car

080822www.trainweb.org/gensets/brookville/bmex/259a.jpg

5.5 Airplanes

Airplanes must carry nonlead (too heavy) batteries or fuel cells sufficient to reach the next airport or use recharging engines

Hydrogen high-pressure flask size may restrict the distance that can be traveled with fuel cells

Hybrid aircraft might use fuel to reach altitude and then change to electric motors or fuel cells to sustain altitude at a lesser speed

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5.6 Ships

Ships are now having diesel engines converted to use natural gas

An existing SkySails wind kite design can partially pull the ship to reduce fuel usage

Hull drag efficiency offers a 3% cost savings

Florida Tech ocean engineering students are designing a model hull with dimples like a golf ball to reduce drag about 3% (2008)

080822

6. Future of Long-Term Energy Forecasts

Energy needed depends upon how much energy is being used, how efficiently, and where

As other countries develop large energy uses, they increase the demands, and price increases

Worldwide problems can be solved locallyChina coal pollution by mercury reaches the US West

Coast, but US actions can only affect the total pollution

Energy growth curves show high consumer demands that must be accommodated by utility planning and construction; some groups say the public must just use less, a hard sellEnviro quote: “I won’t be happy until gasoline costs $10

to $15 per gallon!” from a Sierra Club email

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6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010)

I predict that energy prices will be much higher in 2050, as energy becomes more costly to extract and increased antipollution costs are passed on to the consumer

In some states, more nuclear plants will be placed in operation while in others, nuclear plants will be closedThese changes will be primarily politically driven

Fossil fuel plants will become expensive to operate (cap-and-trade) and ratepayer prices will increase

Cars will tend to be hybrids using advanced batteries and small recharging engines of perhaps 30 hp

Tractors for trailers may run on natural gas from large tanks behind the cab (Picken’s Plan)

Air travel will decline, with trains substituting100127

6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010)

Crude OilPrices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market

$147/bbl on 7/11/08, then $106 on 9/5/08; perhaps $200 by January, 2009; perhaps $100 by January, 2011?

GasolinePrices rise to $6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your

lifetimes, and not due to taxes as in Europe!Electricity

Becomes more diverse, with growing renewables used, as fossil fuel becomes expensive beyond belief or affording

CO2 capture increases price (51% now from coal)Public Transportation

Aircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require frequent landing to refuel limited capacity energy tanks

Trains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for miles

Trucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially “bus”

100125

6.2 Energy Competition by Nations

China and India have large populations that will want and buy more energy, driving the price upTata company of India selling a $2500 car

The other developing nations will do the same, but with less effect at first

Russia has large oil and natural gas resources to control world markets for “national power”

The US President and Congress can’t set the World crude oil price, but the massive effect of the public shifting their demand willThe US competes on the world energy market

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6.3 Future of Energy

The transition of energy from conventional, fossil fuels to cleaner renewables will take decades --- natural gas will survive for years

Al Gore, global warming advocate pushes for no fossil fuels in the next 8 years, but renewables, conservation, and efficiency are still developing and must change from ~4% to over 90% in a short time

Electrical grid must change to carry renewable energy from resource to load centers (cities)

Rechargeable vehicles are as clean as the utility source, which will shift from coal to renewables due to politics, ideology, and good practices

100125

6.3.1 Future of Renewable Energy

Wind power continues to grow at ~30% - 40% per yearAs turbines become more widespread, the “pushback”

against them fades

Solar energy responds to cheaper solar modules and government subsidies

Geothermal heat pumps operate more efficiently and standard heat pumps have fittings for adding a ground source/sink loop

Biofuels develop at commercial levels, and engines are redesigned to accept these fuels

Hydroelectric systems are added at the <30 MW size as economics win over NIMBY and “viewscape” protests

100127

6.3.2 Future of Renewable Energy

Ocean tidal, wave and current energy develops for coastal areasCurrent energy devices provide technology for

river and some stream energy extraction

Distributed energy from rooftop solar water and electrical systems reduce need for transmission line installations

Nuclear fission spent fuel is recycled to make additional fuel (not really a renewable)

Nuclear fusion remains a 30-year technology

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Conclusions

Humans must have air, water, food, and energyFossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House

Effect” believed to cause global warmingFuture cars likely will be plug-in hybrids running

occasionally on CNG, bioethanol or biodiesel for long trips; design options based upon area

Trains will replace aircraft for civilian long trips (price, convenience, and harassment factor)

Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the World’s energy needs, but costs moreCost decreases plus fossil fuels increase in price

Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost --- this attitude must change!

100127

Conclusion

Increasing oil, natural gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur ―

How will we choose to do it?

080820

080710

Thank you!

Questions? ? ?My website: my.fit.edu/~fleslie

for presentations

Roberts Hall weather and energy data: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htm

DMES Meteorology Webpage: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs/realtime/roberts

References: Books

Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. Oxford, 2007

Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973.

Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991

Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.4’5

Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.31’2136

Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4.

Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp., 1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88.

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References: Websites, etc.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.htmlawea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elistawea-wind-home@yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home powersite elistgeothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energymailto:energyresources@egroups.com rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy map

of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups.com. Elist for wind energy experimenters

www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population

www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionwww.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systemstelosnet.com/wind/20th.htmlwww.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22solstice.crest.org/dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.htmlhttp://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htmhttp://www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy3.htm

080811 …\RECallWebsite\ . . \ .ClassPPT\RE27Future of Energy [was FutureTrends]