Fragile States, Global Security and Development:

Development Policy Responses

Dr. Olli Ruohomäki, Senior Adviser

Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Finland

Development & Security Intertwined

World has never seemed more free, wealth and developedFreedom from want, freedom from fear and freedom to take action on one’s behalf still remain a challenge for over a billion peopleState-centered security notions failed to make the world a safer placeIncreasing understanding that development and security intertwined

What are fragile states?New concept - no agreed global list, WB work on Low Income Countries Under Stress (LICUS); failed states; recovering states; difficult partnerships, rogue states, states ‘unable or unwilling to harness domestic and international resources effectively for poverty reduction’ (Torres and Anderson, 2004)WB Country Policy and Institutional Assesment (CPIA) divides low-income countries into 5 categories -> the lowest two of which are useful proxies for state fragility

What are fragile states?

Indicators: population, GNI per capita, ODA per capita, aid as % of GNI, GDP per capita annual growth rate, birth attended by skilled health personnel %, one-year-olds fully immunised against measles, net primary enrolment %, proportion of undernourished in total population %

What are fragile states?

Proxy list of fragile states & Finnish development cooperation: Afganistan, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lao PDR, Nepal, Sudan, Timor Leste46 fragile states containing 870 million people or 14 % of the world’s population, 30 % of people living under 1 euro per day, Every 3rd person undernourishedStates move in and out of the category

What are fragile states?

Government cannot or will not deliver core functions to the majority of its peopleState authority - state lacks clear international sovereign status (Somalia); cannot control its borders; one or more groups subjected to violence or not provided security (Sudan)

What are fragile states?

Effective political power - power of the executive not subject to controls (Zimbabwe); no effective channels for political participation (Burma)Economic management - weak or partial financial management tools; no transparency in the public management of natural resource extraction (Angola, Lao PDR)

What are fragile states?

Administrative capacity to deliver services - the state levies less than 15% of GDP in tax; access to public services for spesific regions of the country deliberately limited

What are fragile states?

Categories of developing countries:’good performers’ capacity and political will’weak but willing’ with limited capacity’strong but unresponsive’ that may be repressive’weak-weak’ in terms of political will and capacity

Why fragile states matter?Fragile states and poverty intertwinedMDGs cannot be met by 2015 if fragile states are not taken into account’Neighbourhood costs’ -> instability, refugee flows, growth reduced by 0,4% if a neighbour is fragile (Afganistan, DR Congo), terrorist havensCosts of late response to crisis are high (average costs of a civil war 54 billion USD - including military expenditure and lives losts and economic growth forgone

Understanding fragile states

Political economy - need to understand reasons for state failure -> history, power relations, ’rules of the game’ and the relationship between these and formal institutionsPhenomenon of ’donor orphans’ (Central African Republic)

Case of Nepal

Nepals difficult political transition since 1990 movement; Maoist insurgency; harsh measures by security forces; structural problems; ethnic marginalisation; entrenched factional politics; quality of political governance extremely bad

Aid & fragile states

Failure to protect people and property -> increased security of the person and property -> improved policing of security (Albania), increased access to justice; providing safe operating environment for service delivery (Nepal - Basic Operational Guidelines); DDR

Aid and fragile states

Failure to deliver basic services -> substantial increase in infrastructure, primary education and health services to the poor -> working with both state and non-state service providers and ensure protection of service providers

Aid and fragile states

Decreasing livelihood security -> social protection for vulnerable households -> humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas; social protection programmes including employment, food security

Aid and fragile states

Weak public financial management -> improved management of natural resource revenue and capacity to manage shocks -> increased political commitment to transparent use of countries’ assets, international accountability arrangements (e.g. Kimberley process); early warning systems and capacity to predict and manage shocks

Finland’s policy responses

Development policy part of Finland’s security policyPrevention of conflicts and post-conflict recovery increasingly importantCivilian crisis managementUN, OSCE, CoE, EU, AU as partners