Fracking - Science in the Newssitn.hms.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/fracking-1.pdf · Fracking is not uniquely water-intensive • More water-intensive than conventional

$Page 1: Fracking - Science in the Newssitn.hms.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/fracking-1.pdf · Fracking is not uniquely water-intensive • More water-intensive than conventional$
Fracking: How cheap energy is reshaping America’s environment

Jared Atkinson, MIT Natasha Goss, Harvard

Jordan Wilkerson, Harvard

Controversy

My Background

A note on semantics…

“Unconventional”

Shale gas Shale oil Tar sands

Methane hydrates

A note on semantics…

“Unconventional”

Shale gas Shale oil Tar sands

Methane hydrates

Roadmap for the evening

1.  Hydraulic Fracturing: How…and Why?

2.  Water Contamination and Induced Seismicity

3.  Impact of Fracking on Climate Structure





Hydraulic Fracturing: How…and Why?

1.  Hydrocarbon basics

2.  The F-word

3.  Why are we doing this?



2.  The F-word


What is…

Hydrocarbon? •  An organic compound consisting of carbon

and hydrogen

Adaproject.org

plastic ties row cover irrigation piping polyethylene polypropylene bags and packaging pesticides and herbicides food preservatives fertilizers ballet tights nylon cord polyester everything permanent press beads bracelets pantyhose nylon zippers plastic hangers purses thongs and flip flops earrings ribbons fake fur windbreakers sandals garment bags shoe laces rain coats iron-on patches sneakers sweaters sofa pillow material• tote bags umbrellas ball point pens diskettes thermometer Ink computers business card holders copiers waste baskets calculators printer cartridges microfilm name tags binders erasers

cameras beach balls fishing poles hang gliders vinyl cases footballs glue containers puzzles darts Frisbees golf ball and golf bags shotgun shells ear plugs knitting needles• waterproof clothing stadium cushions earphones yarn kites tennis racquets fabric dye decoys lifejackets nylon strings face protectors volley balls model cars plastic water guns fishing bobbers soccer balls oil paints parachutes fishing cylume light sticks earphones playing cards photographs monofilament fishing lines diving boards poker chips goggles rollerskate and skateboard wheels whistles guitar strings picks rafts ice chests tents

plastic flowerpots hot tub covers sails snorkels• monkey bars photo albums wet suits flippers tennis balls boats insulated boots acrylic toys baby oil laundry baskets waterproof pants baby aspirin bath soap mittens pacifiers baby blankets bibs rattles doubleknit shirts baby bottles disposable diapers baby shoes teething rings nipples and binkies dolls stuffed animals baby lotion allergy medication cotton-tipped swabs inhalers liquid Pepto-Bismol aspirin first aid cream lancets pill cases band aids first aid kits• latex gloves prescription bottles burn lotion glycerin mosquito spray rubbing alcohol chap stick heart valve replacement nasal decongestant surgical tape syringes Vaseline antiseptics

hearing aids anesthetics artificial limbs eyeglasses and sunglasses antihistamines cortisone vaporizers denture adhesives laxatives Bactine oxygen masks stethoscopes prescription glasses cough syrup hearing aids vinegar bottles egg cartons meat trays trash bags breadboxes freezer containers melamine dishware tumblers cake decorations jars microwave dishes utensils candles freezer bags milk jugs vacuum bottles coasters gelatin molds nylon spatulas wax paper coffee pots ice cream scoops oven bags mops drinking cups ice trays plastic containers fabric softener detergent bottles plastic table service drain stoppers dish drainers lunch boxes pudding molds sponges dish scrubber

baggies drinking straws Styrofoam paper cup dispenser measuring cups Teflon coated pans table cloths refrigerator shelves cologne hair brushes lipstick permanent wave curlers perfume hair color mascara• petroleum jelly comb foam rubber curlers shampoo contact lenses and cases hair spray hand lotion shaving foam hair dryers shoe inserts dentures body lotion face masks skin cleanser deodorants moisturizing cream soap holders disposable razors leather conditioner mouthwash sunglasses facial toner lens cleanser nail polish sunscreen tooth brushes toothpaste tubes vitamins synthetic wigs bubble bath soap capsules carpet padding Naugahyde Venetian blinds TV cabinets extension cords picture frames

shower doors Formica• refrigerator lining vinyl wallpaper curtains kitchen carpet shag carpet welcome mats fan blades lamps shower curtain patio furniture swings linoleum upholstery rugs caulking material light switch plates plungers faucet washers clotheslines measuring tape polyurethane stain water pipes electric saws paintbrushes propane bottles wood floor cleaner/wax vinyl electrical tape plastic pipe shingles (asphalt) light panels garden hoses plastic wood spackling paste awnings glazing compound Plexiglas spray paint enamel epoxy paint artificial turf folding doors• floor wax glue house paint paint rollers toilet seats water pipes putty solvents roofing material plywood adhesive sockets propane

antifreeze flat tire fix street paving (asphalt) car battery cases coolant motor oil tires loud speakers bearing grease sports car bodies traffic cones car enamel brake fluid dashboards windshield wipers visors car sound insulation oil filters car seats convertible tops fan belts gasoline ash trays dog food dishes toolboxes• CDs and DVDs balloons dog leashes tape recorders synthetic rubber bubble gum dog toys flashlights nylon ropes bungee straps flight bags disposable lighters cassette player flea collars flutes lighter fluid cigarette cases electric blankets tool racks name tags

Illinois Oil and Gas Association

What is…

Hydraulic Fracturing? •  AKA “Fracking”

•  The fracturing of rock by pressurized liquid

•  Well “stimulation” technique that enhances permeability

Grain

Permeability Porosity

Porosity vs. Permeability

Pore

Pore Pore

Porosity Permeability

Grain

What is… Cheap energy?

0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

1993" 1995" 1998" 2001" 2004" 2006" 2009" 2012" 2014"

US#Do

llar#

Year#

Crude"Oil"

Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration

0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

1993" 1995" 1998" 2001" 2004" 2006" 2009" 2012" 2014"

US#Do

llar#

Year#

Crude"Oil"

Coal""



0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

1993" 1995" 1998" 2001" 2004" 2006" 2009" 2012" 2014"

US#Do

llar#

Year#

Natural"Gas"

Crude"Oil"

Coal""



Hydrocarbon Basics

Geology.com

Shale – “Source”

Hydrocarbon Basics

Sandstone – “Reservoir”

Gas

Shale – “Source”

Minimegeology.com

Hydrocarbon Basics: Conventional

Gas

Sandstone

Gas

Shale

Hydrocarbon Basics: Unconventional

Shale

Permeability Porosity

Is Shale Permeable?

Pore

Pore Pore

Porosity Permeability

Grain Grain

Hydrocarbon Basics: ��“Fracking”

Source + Reservoir + Seal

Hydrocarbon Basics: ��“Fracking”

Source + Reservoir + Seal

Fracturing & Permeability

Hydraulic Fracturing: How…and why?


2.  The F-word


Hydraulic Fracturing

The F-Word: Frac Facts

5000-10,000 ft

The F-Word: Frac Facts

Length: 100 - 2000 ft Height: 10 – 100 ft

Width: 1/10 in

Questions?



2.  The F-Word


Why?

Modified from: EIA Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources, 2013

Unconventional Resource

Shale Gas (tcf) World Total: 7,299

Unconventional Resource

US: 1,161

Brazil: 245

FSU: 285

Algeria: 707

Australia: 437

China: 1,115

Mexico: 545

Argentina: 802

S Africa: 390

Canada: 573

Why? Demand = Supply

Modified from: EIA Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources, 2013

Why?��Oh Why?

•  Inclusion of shale gas increase the US hydrocarbon resources by 38%

•  International Energy Agency (IEA) expects US to become energy independent by 2035

•  The US could become a net exporter of natural gas

IEA World Energy Outlook, 2013


•  Conventional resources are globally scarce

•  Unconventional resources are plentiful •  Hydraulic fracturing increases permeability,

allowing production from unconventional rock •  Profit and energy independence are primary

motivators


We know how it’s done We know the motivation What is the impact?

Questions?





Water Contamination and Induced Seismicity

1.  Does fracking cause earthquakes?

2.  How much water does fracking use?

3.  Does fracking contaminate drinking water?

Ellsworth 2013

Earthquake frequency in the central US has increased since 2001

After 2001: an increasing number of earthquakes peaking at 188 per year in 2011

Before 2001: 21 “significant” US midcontinent quakes per year

Ellsworth 2013

Earthquake frequency in the central US has increased since 2001

Possible causes:

Improved detection?

Human activity, specifically oil/gas extraction?

Not for quakes of this magnitude post-1970

Accounts for at least part of the increase in seismic activity

Fracking causes microtremors, but not large earthquakes

Small rock fractures are routinely produced during hydraulic fracturing, but unless the drilling intersects a fault and causes it to move, they are undetectable at the surface.

Magnitude scale

10-3

1

10-1

10-2

102

101

M=2 (detectable)

Typical force

Ellsworth 2013

Fracking causes microtremors, but not large earthquakes

Largest to date: Horn River Basin, British Columbia (series of small quakes magnitude 2.2-3.8).

Associated Press

Wastewater injection can cause significant earthquakes

Wastewater from fracking is usually disposed of by injection into deep wells. This step is more likely to cause large earthquakes because it leads to relatively large, rapid, and deep pressure changes.

2011 Oklahoma earthquake

Decreasing injection rates can reduce the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes.

Youngstown, Ohio •  Injection in proximity to fault lines led to

earthquakes, the greatest magnitude 3.0 •  In response to increasing seismicity, injection rate

was reduced. •  Seismicity decreased significantly within a month

of the change.

Questions?





Fracking is not uniquely water-intensive

• More water-intensive than conventional natural gas and some renewables.

• Refracturing is more resource-intensive than initial fracturing. – Bakken Shale: twice as much water/30% gain in production.

• Less water-intensive than some other methods:

Fracking fluid often can’t be recycled because of its

composition

•  Contains compounds other than water for purposes such as: – Corrosion inhibitors

– Thickening agents –  Friction reducers





To dispose of wastewater more safely, we need to know more about existing faults and how they’re affected by adding stress and pressure from the injection of large volumes of wastewater.

US Energy Information Administration (2011)

Fracked wells have been linked to water contamination...

• Eight wells in Pennsylvania and Texas were recently linked by their “chemical fingerprints” to groundwater contamination.

•  A paper published this August by Darrah et al. took a closer look at contaminated wells in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale formation.

Darrah et al. 2014

...Which likely results from lapses in well integrity such as leaky

pipes and seals

Concentrations of helium, neon and argon in the methane-contaminated water weren’t consistent with fracking, but were consistent with poor well integrity.

Faulty casing Abandoned-well leakage

Migration from depth

•  Injecting wastewater near faults can lead to seismic activity. –  Fracking itself is much less likely to do so

•  Fracking uses less water than many other nonconventional fuel sources.

•  Water contamination from fracked wells has been linked to problems with the well construction and not to the fracking process.


Questions?





Impact of Fracking on Climate Structure

What is a Greenhouse Gas?

•  Gases in atmosphere retain some heat that Earth is radiating

•  More heat absorbing

gas = more heat retained

Transition to Renewable Energy

Coal Natural Gas Renewables

VS

How does it compare to coal?

1 kg CO2 for every kWh produced

emits half that amount!

And that’s the end of that!

…or is it?

New Findings in 2011!

Leaking of Methane: the Other Greenhouse Gas

Methane Amount of methane released is much lower than CO2… So why does it matter?

2007 IPCC Assessment Report 4

Not All Greenhouse Gases are Made Equal

•  Global Warming Potential- amount of heat trapped by gas compared to CO2 over a period of time

•  Greenhouse gases often expressed as g CO2 equivalents

Greenhouse Gas

GWP (20 yrs) GWP (100 yrs)

GWP (500 yrs)

CO2 1 1 1

CH4 70 25 10

Questions?

Where is the natural gas escaping?

Methane But how much natural gas is lost?

•  Leaky wellhead components

•  Routine venting

•  Transportation •  Storage

•  Water flowing back to surface

The First Study (2011)

Methane 3.6-7.9% emitted directly to atmosphere!

Howarth et. al. 2011

Let’s Compare it to Coal! G

ram

s of

CO

2 eq

uiva

lent

s pe

r kW

h pr

oduc

ed

55

110

160

270

215

0

*low estimate obtained assuming most advanced technology is used

Modified from Howarth et. al. 2011

Low Estimate High Estimate Low Estimate High Estimate Surface-mined Deep-mined

Shale Gas Conventional Gas Coal

CO2

Methane

High Level of Uncertainty •  Relies on very limited amount of data

•  Some of this data was collected as early as 1996 •  Uses conservative estimates to offset this

Despite using conservative estimates…

•  New study released by Allen et. al. in 2013 obtains value of only 0.42% natural gas release

High Variation Among Studies

Allen’s data collection sites were selected by industry Modified from Howarth et. al. 2014

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Howarth 2011, conventional gas

Howarth 2011, shale gas

Allen 2013, US average

Petron 2012, tight-sands gas

Karion 2012, shale gas

Brandt 2013, US average

Miller 2013, US average

Leak Rate

Some Emissions Can be Reduced! Capture and storage Flaring

these only reduce emissions from venting

Reasons for High Uncertainty and Variation

•  Data from a few sites applied to many sites

•  Advancing technology

•  Many observation sites are selected by industry

•  Data collection occurs infrequently

•  Global warming potentials might be calculated differently from study to study

Impact of Fracking on Climate Structure

Is natural gas better for the climate than coal?

Perhaps! Perhaps not…

•  natural gas emits half as much CO2 as coal

•  extraction processes release methane, a more potent greenhouse gas

•  many emissions are accidental •  some emissions can be

reduced by capture or flaring

Due to high uncertainty, climate improvement should probably not be a reason to rely on natural gas

Questions?

Documents

Fracking - Science in the Newssitn.hms.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/fracking-1.pdf · Fracking is not uniquely water-intensive • More water-intensive than conventional