David Reidmiller, Director NCA4

US Global Change Research Program

Fourth National Climate Assessment: Southeast & Caribbean Climate

Community of Practice

April 24, 2017

1. NCA4 Process & Structure

National Climate Assessment: A Congressionally-mandated endeavor Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 106) …not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which – • integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program

(USGCRP) and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;

• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and

• analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

National Climate Assessment Vision

To advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States

NCA1 NCA2 NCA3

Building on the Success of NCA3

Five aspects of NCA3 (2014) were crucial to its success: • Assessment based on broad

scientific and technical inputs • Stakeholder engagement • Clear communication principles • Transparency of process and

information • An extensive review process

Public Feedback on NCA4 Prospectus: July 2016 • 40 Respondents representing:

• government agencies and regional government programs • tribal communities • professional societies • public and private universities and research institutes • private sector • non-profits

• Built environment as a standalone chapter: Engineering and design communities have distinct needs from other planners. There is a need for urban and rural topics to also be addressed, potentially as a separate chapter.

• Populations of concern: Including tribal & indigenous communities, elderly and other vulnerable groups.

• Key messages and uncertainty and confidence language: This should be continued forward from NCA3 with care taken when applying the lexicon to new peer-reviewed papers.

• Social science integration: Important throughout. Could also help with response to and usage of NCA4. • Visualization, case studies, and tools: Videos could be useful as introductions to chapters. Use case

studies throughout - both to present information and to engage stakeholders as authors and users such as indigenous peoples.

What’s New with NCA4?

Process • Planned release in late 2018 • Led by a Federal Steering Committee • Each chapter has a Federal Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) and either a Fed or

non-Fed Chapter Lead

Substance • Sustained Assessment framework and process

• Climate Science Special Report underway to provide scientific foundation • Regional chapters will be given more in-depth treatment in NCA4 • Sectoral chapters will draw upon the regional chapters and provide brief

national overviews • A variety of climate tools & information (e.g., NOAA NCEI State Climate

Summaries, Indicators, Scenarios, Climate Resilience Toolkit, LOCA dataset)

NCA4 Chapters

I: Overview II: Our Changing Climate III: National Overviews

• Water • Energy • Land Cover and Land Use Change • Forests • Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity • Coastal Effects • Oceans and Marine Resources • Agriculture and Rural Communities • Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities • Transportation • Air Quality NEW! • Human Health • Tribal and Indigenous Communities • Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests

NEW! • Sectoral Interdependencies & Compounding

Stressors: The Science of Complex Systems NEW!

IV: Regional Chapters • Northeast • Southeast • US Caribbean NEW! • Midwest • Northern Great Plains • Southern Great Plains • Northwest • Southwest • Alaska • Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands

V: Response • Near-term Adaptation Needs and Increased

Resiliency • Mitigation: Avoiding and Reducing Long-term Risks

} EXPANDED!

National-Level Overviews

• Short (~6 pg), national-level overviews of key sectors and cross-cutting topics

• Encouraged to link to agency resources and existing work

• Led by one or more agencies

• Chapter Structure: • Background/state of the sector • Roll-up of information from the

regional scale • 2-3 national-scale key messages • Traceable accounts and references

(not part of page limit)

• Response (adaptation and mitigation) will be longer (~10 pg)

Regional Chapters

• The “main course” of NCA4 (~20 pages each)

• Region-specific concerns • Highlight options, challenges,

opportunities, and success stories for minimizing risk

• Chapter Structure: • Background • 4-6 Key Messages:

• Linkage between Climate Change and Regional Risks

• Future Climate Change relevant to Regional Risks

• Challenges, Opportunities, Success Stories

• Emerging Issues • Traceable accounts and references

(not part of page limit)

2016

Processes and guidance developed by the Steering Committee Chapter leadership recruited Many author teams are complete; some are still recruiting authors Author teams are scoping out their chapters and developing chapter outlines

2017

Jan 15: Technical Inputs are due Jan-Mar: Regional Engagement Workshops and Author Team Meetings Apr: Author Meeting Jan-Jun: Drafting and Internal Reviews Jul-Sep: Report Aggregation and Reviews and Author Responses Sep-Jan 2018: Public and National Academies Reviews

2018

Jan: Responses to Public Review Jan-Feb: Revisions in response to National Academies comments Mar-Aug: Reviews and Responses Sep-Dec: Layout and Final Production Dec+ : Release and Engagement

Dates are subject to change

2. Southeast & US Caribbean Chapters

Regional Key Messages from NCA3

NCA3 Convening Lead Authors Lynne M. Carter, Louisiana State University James W. Jones, University of Florida

NCA3 Lead Authors Leonard Berry, Florida Atlantic University Virginia Burkett, US Geological Survey James F. Murley, South Florida Regional Planning Council Jayantha Obeysekera, South Florida Water Management District Paul J. Schramm, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention David Wear, US Forest Service

Chapter Leadership

Southeast

Coordinating Lead Author

Adam Terando DOI-USGS (SE CSC)

Chapter Lead Lynne Carter LSU / SCIPP

US Caribbean

Coordinating Lead Author

Bill Gould USDA-FS (Caribbean Climate Hub)

Chapter Lead Ernesto Diaz Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program

Draft Focal Areas: Southeast

1. Cities – Infrastructure; Human health; Urban growth; Opportunities for adaptation

2. Coastal and Low-Lying Areas – Natural resources and critical industries; Environmental amenities and a tourism-based economy; Cultural resources; Compounding stressors of extreme events + SLR (saltwater intrusion)

3. Ecosystems – Diverse, benefit-producing natural landscapes ranging from tropical to temperate climates

4. Rural Communities - Cultural identity; Vibrant agricultural and forest products industries; Exposure-linked health impacts and economic vulnerabilities

Draft Focal Areas: US Caribbean Emphasis • Unique attributes, vulnerabilities, capacities, and activities relative to CONUS • International capacity available in the wider Caribbean.

1. Freshwater resources – Uncertainty in projections; Increasing variability;

Drought; Flooding; Water management; Social & economic development 2. Marine resources – Warming & acidification; Island systems & societies;

Adaptation needs; “Ridge-to-Reef” connections 3. Warming temperatures – Vulnerable populations; Cooling & other economic

costs; Drought & wildfire; Plant phenology & distribution; Pest & disease occurrence and distribution; Food security

4. Coastal resources and environments – Vulnerable infrastructure; Critical infrastructure; Coastal habitats; Agriculture; Coastal aquifers

5. Disaster risk response to extreme events – Capacity; Changing frequency & intensity; Changing vulnerability & risk; Adaptation

6. Caribbean Regional initiatives and partners – Existing partnerships; Gaps in capacity; International adaptation success stories

3. Sustained Assessment

Sustained Assessment: Vision and Motivation Vision • The quadrennial NCA is a “living timestamp” on a constantly evolving

and improving process • Advancing science • Developing targeted scientific reports and other products that inform and

are informed by research priorities • Creating a framework for enduring dialogue with various user groups so

assessment products are informed by, and therefore tailored to, more specific needs and decision points

Motivation • Avoiding ramp-up and high activation energy • Maintaining momentum • Mainstreaming climate considerations into decision-making

Sustained Assessment Products: Traditional • Climate Change, Global Food Security, and

the U.S. Food System [2015]

• The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States [2016]

• SOCCR-2: The 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report [in progress]

• Climate Science Special Report [in progress]

Sustained Assessment Products: Novel • Climate Resilience Toolkit (NOAA)

toolkit.climate.gov • State Climate Fact Sheets (NOAA)

stateclimatesummaries.globalchange.gov • Climate Data Initiative (CDI)

www.data.gov/climate/ • Localized Sea Level Rise / Land Use /

Population scenarios (EPA, USGS, etc.) • LOCA dataset + GCM weighting • Indicators (NOAA, EPA, etc.)

www.globalchange.gov/explore/indicators The aim is to make the NCA a dynamic

resource

Federal Advisory Committee

• Administered by NOAA • Chaired by Richard Moss (PNNL / University of Maryland) • Met in Sept 2016 + Mar 2017 • Will deliver interim report by Sept 30, 2017 • Will deliver recommendations by Spring 2018 Preliminary areas of focus:

1. Vision for sustained assessment process 2. Engagement: purposes and approaches 3. Foundational elements 4. Quadrennial assessments and other major reports 5. “Derived Products” – “Bottom-up” tools, resources, and assessments (e.g., state level) 6. Ongoing evaluation 7. Process 8. Non-Federal contributions to sustained assessment

Sustained Assessment Interagency Coordination • Designed to continue the

interagency discussion and formulate processes beyond NCA4

• How can we sustainably meet agency, public, and legislative needs?

• Initial discussion topics: • What do agencies hope to get out of

sustained assessment? • What work are agencies interested

in supporting? • What concerns do agencies have -

and how could they be addressed?

• Two in-person meetings thus far and one interim teleconference

• 100+ invitees including • USGCRP Principals • NCA4 Steering Committee • IWG co-chairs • Regional Science Organizations

(RSOs) Leads • Additional interested agency

employees • Technical Support Unit (TSU) • FAC Chair/DFO • NCO

Interagency Coordination: Next Steps

• Monthly meetings • Areas for potential focus at future meetings:

• Foundational Elements of Sustained Assessment • Indicators & Scenario Products • New Tool Development (Research Translation)

• Special Report Ideas • User & Developer Engagement (Question-based framing; Building

capacity for assessing across scales) • NCA5 Vision & Process • Recommendations from FAC

4. Stakeholder Engagement

Engagement: External • Series of regional NCA process background / information sharing

webinars for the public • 10 Regional Engagement Workshops using hub-and-satellite model • Sector-specific outreach (e.g., Oceans; Coastal Effects; Tribal &

Indigenous Communities; Human Health; Mitigation; International…) • Listening Sessions at major conferences and events • NCAnet: ncanet.usgcrp.gov • Federal Register Notices

• Prospectus • Technical Inputs & Author Nominations • Public Engagement • Review Editors (in development)

Regional Engagement Workshops & Events

Southwest REW, Feb 2017

Regional Engagement Workshops: Results • Educating regional stakeholders on

the process • Receiving input to chapter

development (aligned to chapter template)

• Articles, reports, planning documents to cite

• Case studies to highlight Each REW will result in a Summary

Report to be shared with all NCA4 authors and made publicly available on: globalchange.gov/nca4

Northern Great Plains REW, Feb 2017

Ways to Engage with NCA4 Be a Reviewer / Review Editor

• Look for other opportunities to contribute along the way at globalchange.gov/notices

Join / Follow NCAnet • NCAnet participants extend the

NCA to a broad audience through the development of assessment-related capacities and products. More information at ncanet.usgcrp.gov

Follow NCA4-specific news Track updates and other news: globalchange.gov/nca4

Share ideas, case studies, or resources http://www.globalchange.gov/content/nca4-outline

Join the USGCRP Mailing List globalchange.gov/newsletter-signup

Find us at future events! • Association of State Floodplain

Managers (May 2017) • National Adaptation Forum (May

2017)

Ways to Engage with Sustained Assessment Participate in upcoming public Federal Advisory Committee Meetings

• May 15, 3– 6p EDT

• July 27, 3 – 5p EDT

Request speaking time at upcoming FAC Meetings (or submit resources, ideas, etc.)

http://sncaadvisorycommittee.noaa.gov/Meetings.aspx

Submit thoughts and ideas to USGCRP staff:

• Kristin Lewis (Klewis@usgcrp.gov)

• David Reidmiller (Dreidmiller@usgcrp.gov)

5. For Discussion

Guiding Questions 1. How has the understanding of climate impacts in the Southeast & US

Caribbean, including the Key Messages from NCA3, evolved since the last assessment?

2. What are the climate-related challenges or risks for the Southeast & US Caribbean that should be addressed or emphasized in NCA4?

3. What (types of) case studies would you like to see in NCA4? • Specific events or impacts (place- or sector-specific) • Places where NCA3 was used to inform decisions • Examples of successful adaptation actions

4. What derivative products would be most useful? 5. How could we better partner with you to develop valuable and

informed products?

@usgcrp

usgcrp

GlobalChange.gov

Connect with us:

Contact Us

David Reidmiller DReidmiller@usgcrp.gov

www.globalchange.gov/nca4

Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PReP) A public-private collaboration to empower a data-driven approach to building climate resilience among: • Federal agencies • Non-governmental organizations • Private-sector companies • Civil-society organizations

Jointly coordinated by USGCRP & WRI, PReP aims to enable climate resilience by: • Engaging communities and facilitating ongoing conversations • Identifying and reducing the barriers to access, contribute, and

use data • Developing an open-source platform

www.prepdata.org

Resilience Dialogues • Public-private collaboration co-managed by USGCRP and AGU’s

Thriving Earth Exchange • An effort to provide customized, facilitated consultations to

communities entering into climate vulnerability assessments and resilience and preparedness planning

• Five communities participated in pilot dialogues (March 2016) • Ten communities selected to participate in beta dialogues (2017)

o Collaboration with community networks o Diverse range of climate change impacts, geographies, and

community types o Three cohorts participating in March, April, May

www.resiliencedialogues.org