Diapositiva 1

Fossil Future World Energy Consumption and the European Energy Security in the Next Twenty YearsGuest Lecture Series of the School of International StudiesUniversit di Trento 4 Marzo 2013Matteo Verda, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) MilanoWhats energy?Fossil Future Introduction to the issueEnergy is the capacity of a system to do work an input for any economic activity the sources we use an issue among other issues

2Energy and economic growthFossil Future Introduction to the issueSources: IMF, online database and BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013

World totalEuropean UnionGDPPECPECGDPGross domestic product (GDP) and primary energy consumptions (PEC) trends (1979 = 100).Primary energy consumption WorldFossil Future Energy consumption and mixSource: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013Fossil fuels account for 82% (10.668 Mtoe) of World total primary energy consumption (2011).

Primary energy consumption Major economiesFossil Future Energy consumption and mix

Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011)2.743 Mtoe 88%2.189 Mtoe 84%1.659 Mtoe 75%750 Mtoe 72%718 Mtoe 91%461 Mtoe 90%Primary energy consumption BreakdownFossil Future Energy consumption and mix

Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011)Energy mix breakdown: China, USA and EU (Mtoe).EU energy policy: targetsFossil Future The EUs place in the World2020 targets 20% share of energy from renewable sources (national) 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels

2030 targets (proposed) 27% share of energy from renewable sources (EU level) 40% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels

EUs share of World total consumption BreakdownFossil Future The EUs place in the WorldSource: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011)

Note: EU is the largest economy in the World (17,3 T$ - 23%), preceding the US (16,7 T$ - 22%) and China (8,9 T$ - 12%) (2013, IMF).EU and World energy consumption: forecastsFossil Future The EUs place in the World

In 2030, fossil fuels are bound to account for two third of the EU energy consumption and for more that three quarters of the World total energy consumption.Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013EUs share of World total consumption: 2030 forecastsFossil Future The EUs place in the World

Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 20134 p.p.4 p.p.Variation2011-20304 p.p.3 p.p.15 p.p.2 p.p.5 p.p.2 p.p.EU energy policy: the carbon issue and the European targetsFossil Future The carbon issueCarbon issue Supposed climate change Supposed causation link between carbon emissions and climate change Action pattern: reduction of carbon emissions

European targets 2020 : 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels 2030 : 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels

EU emissions and future targetsFossil Future The carbon issue

Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013EU and World carbon emissions: current levels and forecasted trends (Mt CO2).

European UnionWorld total

EUs share of World carbon emissions: forecastsFossil Future The carbon issueSource: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013EUs share of carbon emissions: current levels and forecasted trends (Mt CO2). EU carbon emissions vs. major economies emissionsFossil Future The carbon issueSource: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

EUs share of carbon emissions compared with other main economies (Mt CO2). Carbon emissions change (2011-2030): EU vs. major economiesFossil Future The carbon issue

Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013Expected emissions change (Mt CO2).Reduction vs. mitigationFossil Future The carbon issueMitigationMitigation is the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters. Mitigation is taking action nowbefore the next disasterto reduce human and financial consequences later.

ReductionReduction is the effort to act now on the causal factors in order to reduc e a probable outcome in the future.Thank you!ContactsMatteo Verda, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI), Milanomail: matteo.verda@unipv.itblog: www.sicurezzaenergetica.itTwitter: @matteoverdaLinkedin: Linkedin/in/matteoverdaAddendum Ukraine

Russia export routes and Ukrainian supplyUkraine2012Consumption53 BcmProduction20 BcmImports33 BcmGas share of energy mix36%PipelineMax capacityNord Stream55 Bcm/yYamal Europe35 Bcm/yUkraine pipeline system100 Bcm/yBlue Stream16 Bcm/ySource: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013(approx.)In 2013, Russian exports to Central and Wester Europe amounted to 153 Gmc/c.Addendum Ukrainian crisisEuropean countries vulnerabilityCountryDependenceMain routeHungaryhigh (>50%)Ukrainian p.s.Czech Republichigh (>50%)Ukrainian p.s.Bulgariatotal (100%)Ukrainian p.s.Polandhigh (>50%)Yamal - EuropeSlovakiatotal (100%)Ukrainian p.s.Estoniatotal (100%)directFinlandtotal (100%)directLatviatotal (100%)directLithuaniatotal (100%)BelarusSources: BP and EurogasAddendum Ukrainian crisisItaly Diversification of the pipeline system

Italy Structurally and seasonally low demandItalian natural gas demand is structurally and seasonally low (Bcm).Sources: Snam Rete Gas and Ministero dello sviluppo economicoAddendum Ukrainian crisis

importsproduction

wintersummer