WATER RISKSENERGY SECURITY RESOURCE SCARCITY SOCIAL EXCLUSION HOUSING CRISIS BIODIVERSITY LOSS

There’s a rather extraordinary story to be discovered in these postcards. Some are written from a 2015 perspective, looking forward; others from 2050, looking back. On those 35 years – trust me on this one – rests the entire future of humankind on Planet Earth. For the very simple reason that if we haven’t sorted out what needs to get sorted by 2050, it will almost certainly be too late to get it done at all.

And nowhere is that more true than with the built environment. Not to put too fine a point on it, far too high a percentage of new build in the UK (and of current investment in new infrastructure) cannot possibly be described as ‘fit for purpose’ from that 2050 perspective. Worse yet, a very significant percentage of that new build will need to be very expensively and resource-

intensively retrofitted to make it truly fit for purpose in the super-efficient, ultra-low-carbon world that awaits us. Forgive my plain speaking, but this is just stupid.

Happily, more and more business leaders in this particular sector are now alert to the scale of this challenge. They may be constrained in what they can do by poor regulation, still largely indifferent investors, and somewhat ambivalent consumers, but there’s a seriousness of intent here that is very encouraging.

And if there wasn’t, those ‘young Turks’ writing from their 2050 vantage point, will no doubt be prodding, cajoling and downright demanding, ever more persuasively, as the years slip by and that window of opportunity starts closing down on us.

Foreword

WATER RISKSENERGY SECURITY RESOURCE SCARCITY SOCIAL EXCLUSION HOUSING CRISIS BIODIVERSITY LOSS

Postcards from 2050Future solutions to challenges in the built environment Delivered by UK-GBC’s Leaders’ Network and Future Leaders

Jonathon PorrittCo-Founder of Forum for the Future, Jonathon is an eminent writer, broadcaster and commentator on sustainable development.

WATER RISKSENERGY SECURITY RESOURCE SCARCITY SOCIAL EXCLUSION HOUSING CRISIS BIODIVERSITY LOSS

We might not have a crystal ball, but if we can’t predict what might lie ahead, how can we ensure we’re developing the solutions we need both now and in the future? Yes, it’s hard, but with the knowledge, skills and technological solutions we know the sector has, perhaps all we’re missing is a little imagination and the remit to be even more forward-thinking? One way of doing so is to think of a point in the future - say 2050 - and how we might be designing and building, living and working at that point in time. By thinking to the future, and acknowledging the signals we already see, we can transform the built environment in a much more radical way. This futures perspective is exactly what we’ve tried to capture in this collection of postcards.

We asked senior industry leaders (from the UK-GBC’s Leaders’ Network) to present existing challenges across a

range of issues – energy security, resource scarcity, social exclusion, the housing crisis, water risks and biodiversity loss. Then, inspired by Jonathon Porritt’s book The World We Made, we asked the next generation of CEOs (from our Future Leaders programme) to respond to each of these challenges, as if writing from 2050. They’ve sent their postcards - outlining how these challenges were addressed and the leadership demonstrated to create change - back from the future for you to read – hence ‘Postcards from 2050’.

I’ll warn you now, it’s not all rosy. But what we do see is a significant shift from the way we currently operate, and that the much needed change came from the brilliant minds and collaborative approach from industry. Somewhat surprisingly, these changes weren’t all down to new technological solutions – but a greater openness to new business models and radical thinking. I urge you to think about what 2050 will look like for you, your organisation and ultimately the built environment as a whole. We have an enormous opportunity to affect the future in everything we do… let’s start today.

Introduction

Cat HirstHead of Learning & Development, Cat heads up UK-GBC’s learning and leadership programmes which include the Leaders’ Network and Future Leaders programme.

Energy Security

Tony Cocker, E.ON (Leader)

Lindsey Malcolm, XCO2 Energy (Future Leader)

Rick Holland, Innovate UK (Future Leader)

Resource Scarcity

Mike Putnam, Skanska (Leader)

Terry Clarke, SEGRO (Future Leader)

Steve Cook, Willmott Dixon (Future Leader)

Social Exclusion

Val Lowman, Be Onsite/Lend Lease (Leader)

James Allison, Bennetts Associates (Future Leader)

Charlie Jacques, Schroders (Future Leader)

Housing Crisis

Mark Clare, Barratt Developments (Leader)

Alastair Mant, GVA (Future Leader)

Gemma Bourne, Lend Lease (Future Leader)

Water Risks

Chris Newsome, Anglian Water (Leader)

Alex Willey, Affinity Sutton (Future Leader)

Mike Henderson, AECOM (Future Leader)

Biodiversity Loss

Pat Ward, Aggregate Industries (Leader)

Lydia Dutton, Argent (Future Leader)

Neil Strong, Network Rail (Future Leader)

Design and layout by Zachary RootesEdited by James Kershaw and Cat Hirst

Cover image by Scriberia www.scriberia.co.ukWith special thanks to Jonathon Porritt

With thanks to our contributors:

ContextDecarbonising the UK economy by 80 per cent by 2050 will require a radical transformation of the way we use, produce and transport energy. However, ensuring that our energy supplies remain secure and affordable, whilst diversifying the nation’s energy mix to reduce CO2 emissions, presents a tough challenge for UK policy makers. This challenge is often referred to as the ‘energy trilemma’. In a globalised world, experiencing increased uncertainty means energy security is becoming increasingly top of mind for policy makers. However, ensuring the lights remain on will require both supply-side and demand-side responses, with customers also playing their part.

ChallengesIf we’re to meet our longer term decarbonisation goals whilst keeping bills affordable and supplies secure, there’s no doubt the energy market needs to change. Customers have to be at heart of the energy market. This means:

Customers using less energy in their homes and businesses

Customers helping to generate decentralised, low carbon power through solar PV for example

Customers managing their energy use in a smart way; helping the energy system overall through demand response and storage

The immediate challenge is encouraging customers and businesses to make

energy efficiency their priority, and in doing so boost energy security by using less energy.

Leadership requiredIt is vital that we see the big picture and bring all the pieces together. Not a low carbon plan, not an energy efficiency plan, not an industrial plan but an energy plan. We need Government to deliver a plan which can enable leadership by all – including customers who are both incentivised and supported in improving their energy efficiency. Leadership is also required from energy suppliers in presenting customers with new ways to reduce their energy usage through smart solutions enabled by distributed energy technologies and smart meters. Put simply, energy efficiency is a no regrets way for the UK to boost energy security, and leadership is required by all.

At E.ON we’ve been combining our own experience and scale with innovative ideas. Investing in start-ups, we’ve been focusing on strategic technologies and business models that drive the move toward energy efficiency and distributed energy based products and services. We are playing our part in creating a market in which customers can be offered the best energy choices which starts with helping them to find the best energy tariff for their needs.

Tony Cocker, CEO, E.ON

Energy SecurityLEADER

Tuesday 3 March, 2015

FUTURE LEADER

ContextSitting here in 2050, I find myself in complete control of the energy that’s being consumed around me.

We are living in an age of unprecedented openness for the energy markets, full end user control of both demand and supply - when you use energy and where you source it from. Energy security is no longer a concern due to a smart grid, better storage options and a truly open market.

My personal highlight is the pan-European sharing opportunities, for example this morning I bought solar from Rome, there was a little wind going cheap in Greece over lunch and I expect to be able pick up the late afternoon tidal surge from the western Mediterranean to charge my storage unit for tonight.

Challenges overcomeThe route to this current state has been lined with several key breakthroughs:

A jump in the number of energy companies in the early 2020s following the Green Energy Market revolution - new tech ideas and regulatory revisions combined

A step change in 2025 as the UK became the first EU country to introduce a carbon tax on generation – revitalising the stalled renewables market

This led to explosive growth in LZC tech on every possible scale as companies strove towards zero carbon solutions, matching the great energy efficiency innovations seen in the previous decade

Leadership demonstratedThe big realisation for governments was that energy security isn’t about closing off the borders and ring-fencing our pot but about opening up and having broader access and availability on a larger scale. Rather than seeking “energy independence” for the UK, we needed to look to the wider EU context and share the burden between us. No single country could afford the extent of infrastructure needed to meet demand in all conditions, but once you looked beyond your borders it became clear that larger scales offered more consistency in supply and higher diversity of demand.

Resolving the issues of long distance transmission losses and changing demand side to respond to supply availability were inevitable conclusions. The integration of demand and supply now allows real time purchasing of energy with cost flexibility to balance against availability. Extensive decentralisation was the final piece in the jigsaw: micro-scale generation and storage mean personal devices consume, store and share energy - everything acts as a battery that can charge and discharge as needed.

Lindsey Malcolm, XCO2 Energy

Energy SecurityFUTURE LEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

LEADER

ContextWith the benefit of hindsight, the scale of ‘energy mis-management’ we were collectively responsible for in 2015 was shocking.

Whereas the great achievement in 2049 was that the number of terawatt-hours the UK Grid generated from conventional fuels was surpassed by the number of aggregated ‘negawatt-hours’ from the distributed Virtual Power Stations.

Thanks to our latitude, the UK remains a green and pleasant land. But for other countries less fortunate, the effects of climate change have become more evident and frequent, and “climate emigration” is now a very real phenomenon; splitting families apart and harming economies.

The political media continues to give the UKDSP (UK Doors Shut Party) a disturbing level of exposure.

Challenges overcomeOver 500,000 people are employed in North Sea Carbon Capture and Storage, which has helped to decarbonise electricity - although its price remains high.

The high price means people now value energy much more, and Government does all it can to eradicate ‘fuel poverty’. Business is booming for skilled retrofit companies. In fact, these employers now regularly partner with education colleges to accelerate the next generation of talent.

The market for decentralised power networks is also lively. Although the recent cyber terrorism attacks on the open energy networks has provoked a public debate on whether market liberalisation has gone too far.

Leadership demonstratedBy allowing councils to operate energy trading markets, policy-makers set off an urban innovation revolution.

The Mayor of Manchester was the first to embed battery storage into streetlights and solar induction loops into cycle lanes. Other cities were quick to adopt this ingenious way to promote cycling and generate revenue.

Businesses led most innovations; for instance, the integration of online social networking, energy trading and currency. My friends and I now make all our payments using guaranteed Green Energy BitCoins, generated by our co-funded Solar Windows.

As Thomas Edison advised: “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy”!

Rick Holland, Innovate UK

Energy SecurityFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextThe world is changing fast. In some areas we are witnessing huge growth, fed by our demand for new buildings and infrastructure. The construction industry alone is responsible for around 40 per cent of global resources, including 12 per cent of global potable water. There is a real recognition that availability of resources is dramatically changing the way we live and work.

We are seeing signs of a more circular approach to resources – reducing waste from the manufacturing process, growing the recycled content of products and designing with deconstruction in mind. The supply chain is already rising to the challenge, but there is a need to push the boundaries with ever-more innovative solutions and working practices.

ChallengesAs the industry moves out of recession, resource resilience needs a more lateral approach. We have started to think about protecting and making the most of materials, as well as looking at those who deliver them and how they do so.

But there are other questions that need addressing. How will we continue to provide and protect basic resources such as water? Do we always need new? Can we retrofit more? How do we continue to manage the whole life cost of assets so that resources are used more efficiently?

At Skanska, we have begun to engage with our supply chain partners early, maximising their desire to work collaboratively with us. There are enormous

potential benefits in this approach. But we need to maintain momentum to ensure that the building industry maximises its potential for resource reductions at the least cost. How can we ensure that the circular economy becomes a reality?

Leadership requiredLeaders need to be relentless in ensuring that the search for new ways of working never stops.

Central to all of this will be collaboration. Government’s Construction 2025 strategy has galvanised the industry to focus on collaboration in areas like innovation and digital engineering, elevating industry and resource efficiency to a totally new level. But future leaders must build on this by deconstructing the old ways of thinking, creating new partnerships and sharing knowledge and expertise even more extensively.

The leadership challenge is to combine building on what we have achieved so far, with driving the mindset change necessary for continuous improvement and a sustained collaborative approach across the industry and into the future.

Mike Putnam, President & CEO, Skanska UK

Resource ScarcityLEADER FUTURE LEADER

Tuesday 3 March, 2015

ContextWe have moved from globalisation to regionalisation. Resource scarcity and consequent global events dictated that we needed to move to a collaborative, smarter and long-term model for the consumption of resources in both our day to day lives and in the built environment. Global, European and national legislation has succeeded in reducing resource wastage with the introduction of water footprinting for products and processes, embedded carbon labelling, and through incentivising businesses to collaborate more effectively to reuse materials and resources.

Things feel “smarter” than they did back in 2015. There are stronger links between large corporations, government, SMEs and communities as the necessity to reduce resource waste and to “keep things moving” has become an unavoidable and undeniable truth.

Challenges overcomeWe’ve witnessed a step change in attitudes to the question “new or reuse?”, which took place over a decade or so – pushed along by legislation, market demands, and a stronger business case due to increased costs for new products, plus disposal costs increasing through taxation.

Tools like #LOOP (a UK-GBC Future Leaders project from 2014) have been embedded into the full life cycle of buildings from design to deconstruction. Refurb and development projects now use this database of materials in the

early design stages to procure reusable materials where possible, avoiding levies on new products and gaining “Reuse Credits” in schemes such as BREEAM.

Driven by necessity, industry has tied up the loose ends through collaboration to make the sensible, common sense choices which are easy to implement.

Leadership demonstratedThings moved slowly for a long time. The breakthrough came when importing materials, water security and competition for resources became so contentious that policy makers and industry needed to work in synergy and accept compromises in certain areas to achieve an overall greater good.

Resource scarcity and the consequent legislative and market responses to it ultimately increased costs and risk, which helped to make a strong commercial case for sustainable resource use. Those who embraced change early had an advantage and their practices became the industry standard, quickly adopted by the fast followers. Laggards have been taxed out of the picture and either don’t exist, or have stripped back operations. The investment community accelerated this by implementing tough minimum environmental standards for all listed companies.

Terry Clarke, SEGRO

Resource ScarcityFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextWe have just been awarded the deconstruction project for an office block built in 2015. Wow - they don’t build them like this anymore!

This will probably be the most valuable resource salvage project I have ever managed. We have just over five months to disassemble this 9,000m2 five-storey block using Remote Cyber Operatives (it’s hard to believe that when this was built, this would have been done by real people).

Just over 80 per cent of the office block’s materials have already been pre-purchased through the #LOOP ecosystem tool, with some large structural components being air-shipped to Taiwan for another project. We will be incorporating the rest in the new project – and this will be tricky… these buildings were not designed with disassembly in mind.

Challenges overcomeMaterials are far too precious and valuable to be thrown away and we realise this now. My uncle was a construction manager in the 2020s and I remember the company he worked for went bust because they simply couldn’t adapt their business model to suit the new circular approach required in a resource constrained world.

Luckily for him, he found work with a forward-thinking business with a renowned R&D programme. His claim to fame is that he managed the first project to be self-sufficient in energy and water. The Government’s decision to

make this approach mandatory in 2030 didn’t seem so bonkers after the Great Drought in 2028.

Innovative new building materials have also helped to overcome resource scarcity. The building replacing the office block will be made from injection-moulded purified feedstock sourced from remediated landfill sites. It doesn’t sound very attractive, but actually it’s a nice material to work with – fast, durable, adaptable, lightweight and fully automated.

Leadership demonstratedIt was really the radical shift in how the construction industry viewed resources that enabled this transition. Tired of being seen as a laggard compared to other innovative industries such as communications, and driven by the scarcity of the resources on which their businesses depended, the industry got its act together and abandoned the linear approach that had persisted for years.

The new circular way of thinking impacted on everyone across the supply chain, from investors to end users. The result of this circular approach is a real sense of pride in the industry – doing a lot more with a lot less – and we’ve got some great buildings, a thriving industry and happy occupants to prove it!

Steve Cook, Willmott Dixon

Resource ScarcityFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextSocial exclusion presents a growing challenge for the built environment sector. How do we design and construct buildings to facilitate social cohesion, equality, diversity, and ensure there is a positive legacy for all?

The UK property sector is currently booming, yet a skills gap exists and there are many who still can’t access jobs. Thinking forward to when a building or community is in use, we are seeing a number of emerging issues which the sector must get a hold of at the early stages of a project.

Two examples are loneliness – something perhaps traditionally associated with the elderly – which data shows is increasing amongst younger people, and the rise of one person households. Both are challenging assumptions that family life leads to community cohesion.

ChallengesEmployment practices in today’s workplace have changed dramatically and this complex landscape throws up barriers for those who are furthest from employment such as the long-term unemployed, homeless or those leaving prison.

These people are unable to access the jobs whilst ironically the sector struggles to recruit, so one challenge is to find ways to bring this workforce to the sector on a large enough scale to have both a social and economic transformational impact.

Another challenge is how in an increasingly digital world, we ensure that people do not lose vital face to face interaction and access to services such as healthcare that form the basis of strong communities.

Leadership requiredThe built environment has a key role to play in strengthening social cohesion and placemaking. Leaders need to understand the interdependence of an industry beset by a skills shortage, a fractured society and their own bottom line - which would stop untapped talent going to waste and the resulting societal damage and cost caused by a lack of accessibility and hope.

But leadership also needs to focus on designing and building communities that take into account changing and emerging models of how people live and work, and can effectively adapt to them.

We need leadership which inspires us to seek out the solutions that are hidden in these challenges and embraces qualities such as trust, integrity, creativity and optimism.

Val Lowman OBE, Managing Director, Be Onsite (Lend Lease)

Social ExclusionLEADER FUTURE LEADER

Tuesday 3 March, 2015

ContextIn the 10 years after 2015, inequality continued to grow, widening the social divide across the country. By 2025, Britain had reached a tipping point. Rioting and social unrest occurred, driven by disenfranchised young people who couldn’t afford university, people in their 20s and 30s who were fed up with living with mum and dad, and older generations who couldn’t afford to heat their homes or afford care. But from 2025 a national consensus started to emerge: that it was time to rebuild the country to facilitate social cohesion, re-establish equality, encourage diversity, and to ensure there is a positive legacy for the future.

Challenges overcomeThe People’s Housing Act was passed in 2026 in a bid to end the social unrest. It included the deregulation of building use classes with new legal powers for communities to refurbish the discarded existing building stock for residential use, innovation hubs and flexible workspaces. The introduction of the Act brought about a dramatic social change. All sections of society including those previously isolated; the long-term unemployed, homeless or people leaving prison, began to feel optimistic about the future and empowered to bring about change. And here in 2050, we’re looking at a completely different social landscape:

Advancements in prefabricated housing technology enabled the creation of new homes, built quickly, cost effectively on a large scale

The self-build initiative is common practice and it no longer takes a year to build a home, but just three weeks and for a fraction of the cost

Employment opportunities have become available in highly sustainable pre-fab factories, with the high demand for housing reducing the number of unemployed

Older people now form cooperatives to commission co-housing in the centre of towns, allowing them good access to amenities and social activities.

Leadership demonstratedToday, leaders can be found in all pockets of society ranging from smaller scale Co-Housing Networks to Local Authorities and Central Government. These groups are working together to ensure social inclusion through the design of new communities. Strong community leadership has become common place with many collaborations between the young and old combining knowledge and experience with creativity, energy and understanding of technological advancements. In 2050 the demographic of Parliament is significantly different to that of 2015. Triggered by the social unrest in 2025 and with gradual change thereafter, MPs in 2050 are a true representation of society – a balance of gender, ethnicity and income. For the first time in over a century the nation is united.

James Allison, Bennetts Associates

Social ExclusionFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextLondon remains a significant and thriving global centre, although it underwent some reimagining. Housing issues came to the fore in the 2020s. Central London became desolate with wealthy international buyers only residing there a few weeks a year in contrast with the unaffordability and undersupply of housing for the general population. People were still keen to move to London from the regions due to the perception of better jobs and livelihoods. An occupation tax was introduced in 2020 and new residential schemes were required to incorporate an inclusive and diverse housing mix which reflected the breadth of people required to support the city. However, it took over a decade for change to emerge and it wasn’t fast enough. By the 2030s, London’s population could not support itself and jobs and communities moved into regional cities and towns. A dynamic network of these hubs, connected by efficient mobility and communication, enabled London to maintain its leading global position.

Challenges overcomeDuring the 2020s single person households, the over 50s and the young unemployed became disconnected from society, and health issues stemming from loneliness became a major problem.

But we developed an understanding that thriving communities are key for all towns and cities to develop sustainably and the industry began to realise the contribution of the built environment to help society overcome

its challenges. Those who relocated from the capital had to work with existing residents to develop new inclusive communities, and initiatives were designed to help new populations come together, build relationships and integrate with their neighbours. Other programmes helped to overcome the social media revolution which had become a destructive feature of society, with many far too reliant on digital connections. People had to relearn the importance of physical relationships and the wellbeing benefits of belonging and contributing to an active society.

Leadership demonstratedThe appreciation of the benefit, need and value of cohesive societies was led by property developers, communities and councils, who worked on establishing places which brought people together across their daily routines and provided the amenities they required. Schemes were developed with local communities, funded by national community development, and social programmes embraced the value of older generations and skills sharing with the young. The Generate scheme in particular harnessed knowledge through workplace mentoring and technical colleges for those with the practical skills needed for housebuilding and building conversions for homes and new enterprise.

In 2050 we have witnessed a repurposing of society that will enable next generations to thrive.

Charlie Jacques, Schroders

Social ExclusionFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextAs a nation we are not building enough homes and every year our housing deficit is growing - currently by around 100,000 homes a year.

The age of the first time buyer is increasing, rents are rising and family formation is being delayed. London alone is expected to grow by a million people in 10 years but doesn’t have the necessary housing.

But this is not just a numbers game: what we build today will have a profound effect on how and where we live in the future and the resources we consume.

ChallengesThe challenges are all around where, what and how. New settlements require significant infrastructure - social, physical and environmental - and agreement on their location.

Extensions to existing settlements are easier to build but don’t always command support from local residents. Deciding what to build is also a challenge: as demographics change we will need to cater for different sectors - downsizers, long-term renters, single person households - whilst always delivering homes that meet the needs of people and local communities.

And at the same time we need to address the “how” we build to meet the increase in volumes whilst moving towards a net positive impact on the environment from our activities.

Leadership requiredLeadership today has to focus on building high quality homes at volume in a world where resources, particularly skills, are highly constrained.

Beyond that, leaders of this industry need to make the case for new housing - and win it - in every local community. The housing industry cannot win this argument about building more without leading the debate about building better.

That means driving higher design standards and being seen to create great places to live with a positive social legacy. But it also has to mean finding a way to reduce the resources consumed in construction and by those who live in the homes we build.

And one final thing: all this has to be done whilst reducing costs and making it easier and not harder to build new homes.

Mark Clare, Group Chief Executive, Barratt Developments

Housing CrisisLEADER FUTURE LEADER

Tuesday 3 March, 2015

ContextThe population of the UK is far more evenly spread across the country than in 2015. London is no longer seven times bigger than any other UK city and rural depopulation started reversing in the early 2020s. The majority of communities create over half their own energy and a third of their own food.

Many individuals and families rent from either the local government or institutional investors and view it as a sensible and enjoyable long-term alternative to home ownership. Housing cooperatives are also popular and they and private owner-occupiers often design and build their own houses.

Challenges overcomeChanges in work and life-style trends, closely connected with technological advancement, helped spread housing demand away from traditional city centres. The workforce became less inclined to spend time and money commuting to polluted and crowded cities every day.

Technology allowed people to communicate and create wherever they were, and co-working and maker-spaces breathed new life back into high streets.

Quality and affordable housing for those who lived and worked in an area became viewed as a requirement of a successful community and this combined with housing’s potential to mitigate climate change and its effects led to housing being treated as an infrastructure issue.

Leadership demonstratedPoliticians showed leadership by taking a long term view on housing. They took action to prevent housing becoming an asset class for the increasingly wealthy few and they worked with institutional investors and housebuilders to create a rental sector that worked for long-term investors and local renters.

Housebuilders and governments both increased spending on research into new ways of construction and urban design so as to reduce the environmental impact and improve the effects on wellbeing.

Communities became more amenable to new developments as they saw the improved quality and were also supported in plans for self and community-build projects.

Alastair Mant, GVA

Housing CrisisFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextIt’s no longer the social norm to buy a home; home ownership is inflexible and stressful so for us renting is definitely the new owning.

We value flexibility; freedom to travel and our ability to live and work in a dif-ferent country each year, which is why 80 per cent of us rent. Renting is still expensive but now with each rental payment we’re also investing because we can rent smartly.

With SmartRent I can rent any property in Europe and a proportion of my rent is invested in ‘Rental Bonds’ that mature on a 10, 15 and 20 year cycle. All of the rents are capped depending on the property type so I also know how much to budget each year. With SmartRent I get the flexibility of renting whilst also being able to invest in my family’s future.

Challenges overcomeIn 2015 we thought that balancing supply and demand would solve the problem. It didn’t, and rents continued to rise. More and more homes were being built but we couldn’t afford them and with each payment of rent we moved further away from financial security.

As Millennials, the world’s largest generational group, we’re the generation that is capital poor with large debts accrued from further education. We were neither wealthy enough to buy a home or had low enough incomes to qualify for affordable housing.

SmartRent was launched by the European Union in 2030 to improve access to affordable housing for Millennials. SmartRent followed a number of already established and successful start-ups from the 2020s and is now the most successful housing investment scheme, socially and financially, in the world.

Leadership demonstratedThe leaders that transformed the market looked at the housing crisis through a different lens; they looked through a lens of people first, buildings second.

They challenged the assumption that home ownership would remain relevant for the masses and looked for alternatives. In doing so, our leaders demonstrated an understanding of a generation that led to the transformation of the rental and investment markets and to the lives of billions of people.

Gemma Bourne, Lend Lease

Housing CrisisFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextWhen looking at our blue planet from space, water looks plentiful, but in reality fresh and unpolluted water accounts for only 0.025 per cent of total water available globally.

Water forms an integral part of our daily lives and the environment in which we live. It is essential in the food that we eat, the energy we generate, the products we consume and the natural habitats we watch over.

An increasing population and a changing climate will put even more pressure on the demand for water. In 2009, the then Chief Scientific Adviser for Government Sir John Beddington warned of a perfect storm by 2030 with a 50 per cent increase in demand for food, 50 per cent increase in demand for energy and 30 per cent increase in demand for freshwater.

ChallengesThe World Economic Forum report for 2015 has made clear that a water supply crisis is the number one risk we face over the next 10 years by impact.

Our relationship with water is already complex, with competing demands from a range of sectors, including agriculture, leisure, industry and potable water supplies. A changing climate with hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters will test this relationship on demands for water even further. The warming of oceans will lead to rising sea levels (typically by up to 600mm by 2050), which for Anglian Water, with 30 per cent of its geographical area

below sea level, will increase the risk of catastrophic flooding from North Sea tidal surge events.

In addition, how we meet the needs of a growing and increasingly urban population, in the way we use, consume and dispose of water, whilst protecting our environment, all correlates closely with how we plan and construct our buildings and infrastructure.

Leadership requiredOur future needs to be very different from the past. The option to continue to consume greater volumes of freshwater is not sustainable. We need to think very differently about how we value freshwater and share a greater understanding of the volume of water we actually consume and the environmental impacts we cause from beyond ‘the tap’.

The opportunity in how we adapt and use our infrastructure and the built environment to enable us to consume less water, recycle greater amounts and avoid pollution of existing sources, will create a very different future.

How can we ensure that in 2050 we sustainably meet the needs of the world’s population and environment whilst protecting us from impacts such as flooding and drought?

Chris Newsome, Director of Asset Management, Anglian Water

Water RisksLEADER FUTURE LEADER

Tuesday 3 March, 2015

ContextAh the Noughties. Remember the ice bucket challenge? Summertime resentment over hose-pipe bans? Water was not a valued commodity back then, because we were a wet nation, right? Good old rainy England. Little did most people know that actually we were drier than Israel in some parts of the country.

Back then our values were off-kilter; little respect was given to the very resources that were keeping us alive, enabling us to live our modern lives. Nor did enough people care about the unfair and disproportionate impact things like climate change, particularly in relation to water, had on poorer communities.

In 2015 Ban Ki-moon told the UN Youth Forum that they had the chance to change history, calling them the “first generation with the potential to end poverty and the last generation to avoid the worst effects of climate change.”

So, was history changed?

Challenges overcome2050 is not the end of the story, there’s still some work to do. There were fantastic steps taken to change the systems that were preventing us from resolving this situation. And smart meters and their links to mobile media started to enable and empower everyone to take control of their water usage. But the major shift was in cultural attitude towards water itself.

People finally began to wake up to its importance and also that, if the systems could enable it (which they began to in the last twenty years), water would move from the nice-to-have to being crucial to businesses, vital to healthy living, a solid investment for communities.

Leadership demonstratedAchieving this cultural shift took serious leadership. The agenda was driven not by people looking to brand effective water management as an environmental necessity, or something to avoid potential future risks (though it was), but by getting the message out there that it affects us all and should just be part of everything that we do, from making breakfast in the morning to building a new city.

From building up an extensive, coherent and widely publicised body of evidence that politicians and CFOs could no longer argue with, to engaging properly with the media to start to tell the story of water and what happens beyond the tap, Ban Ki-moon’s change-bringing generation has started to live up to its potential.

Alex Willey, Affinity Sutton

Water RisksFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextSitting in dappled shade, drinking a cool glass of water on a summer’s day in the heart of London. What could be better? It seems crazy to remember back to 2014. At the time that Forbes announced London as the world’s most economically powerful city, we were just 10 years away from a predicted 10 per cent shortfall in our water needs .

There have been a tough few years, swinging from drought to flood as the effects of climate change really took hold, but we got back in control in the end. Yes, water is more expensive than it was, but the mass greening of urban streets and rooftops has paid back dividends in other ways – our water courses are clean and full of life; the city is kept cooler and we don’t need as much energy on those 40 degree summer days; and people are much healthier now with cleaner air and lots of outdoor space.

Challenges overcomeTaking a fresh approach to urban catchment management and emulating natural processes was key. Urban greening reduced the peak flows reaching our over-capacity sewer system and removed a host of pollutants. It gave space to store water too.

You wouldn’t want to drink it but it is quite alright for flushing the loo! The rest of our dirty water goes off to the new bioremediation water treatment plants before heading back into town.

The main challenge however wasn’t so much that we didn’t know what to do, or that we didn’t have the technical capabilities, it was the legacy of a system we had created ourselves. For so long we had relied on a system of underground pipes to manage our water. Sensible for the challenges of times gone by, but not adequate for now.

Leadership demonstratedDeveloping the Integrated Infrastructure Task Force was central to breaking down the barriers that had resulted from 150 years of regulation and organisational structures designed for this underground network.

It enabled cross-organisational working like never before, allowing all providers to take a more systematic approach to managing the interdependencies between different types of infrastructure and made clear the valuable role green infrastructure could play in managing these connections.

Delivering this more strategic view of infrastructure provision took long term planning, coordination and great communication – it was hard, but in the end much easier than living with the consequences of not doing so!

Mike Henderson, AECOM

Water RisksFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextBiodiversity is central to the success of ecosystems and their many processes: without it we risk the biological resources on which we rely, such as food and oxygen.

However, biodiversity is significantly threatened in the UK, with recent Government figures showing that the most threatened species have declined on average by 58 per cent since 1970. This is compounded by the fact that with around 80 per cent of the UK population living in densely populated areas, there’s an obvious pressure on green space and our ability to both protect and enjoy it.

The building sector can have a significant impact on green spaces, biodiversity and the relative success of ecological systems, whether that’s in the extraction of materials, the methods we use to construct buildings, or the locations we choose for these buildings.

ChallengesThe challenge of climate change and the related use of fossil fuels will have a significant impact on biodiversity if left unchecked and needs careful stewardship from all sectors.

For the construction sector, land use and the way in which we design and situate buildings will be of particular interest, with a real focus on the loss of green space in urban areas. In the quarrying industry, the focus is on managing

biodiversity in land used for extraction, and while we already have a strong commitment to restoration and the protection of wildlife, the opportunity for 2015 is to focus on the human side of biodiversity, ensuring the wider population understands and can access these natural treasure troves.

Leadership requiredIn our sector the focus needs to be on areas where we can make specific gains, such as the life cycle cost of products and reducing our water footprint.

For leaders this means innovation in how we manufacture and use products, supporting initiatives such as BIM (Building Information Modelling) that encourage behaviour change, and working together across the supply chain to drive greater benefits - all of which will positively affect our impact on the environment and biodiversity.

I’d like to see a real focus on the development of tools and knowledge that help us account for and replace the loss of habitat in urban areas. We can’t adequately appreciate the loss and offset it unless we have the tools to measure what we have today.

Pat Ward, CEO, Aggregate Industries

Biodiversity LossLEADER FUTURE LEADER

Tuesday 3 March, 2015

ContextThe UK population forecasts for 2050 have materialised but not as predicted. Despite passing the 70 million mark in 2048, the rural population has risen to 20 per cent due, in part, to the appreciation and value placed on environmental stewardship, resulting in thriving self-sustaining rural communities. The link between wellbeing and productivity of workers with access to green spaces has ensured cities have blossomed with green infrastructure. This has enabled the development of green corridors in which inhabitants and biodiversity can flourish as well as facilitate urban resilience. The last 20 years have seen world leading cities’ programmes to revitalise and regenerate the housing stock, minimising city sprawl and resource demand whilst providing for the increase in population. This was only made possible through the green infrastructure investment of the 2020s which committed to net positive impact for habitats disturbed.

Challenges overcomeResilient cities = healthy cities. The increase in climate change related storm events finally motivated the Government to commit to green infrastructure. This came from a recognition of the benefits of flood resilience and enhanced health and wellbeing of rich and varied ecosystems across cities.

Natural capital = what value? The work of TEEB (The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity) and the UN to establish values on ecosystems initially looked to materialise and capitalise the natural world. Within the

UK however, the construction industry championed the need for preservation and management of precious resources linked by their supply chains. By attributing true costs to products, and in turn buildings, the exploitation and degradation of landscape wasn’t as appealing or financially viable.

Knowledge + value = stewardship. Environmental stewardship incorporated into all curriculums raised the profile, recognition and importance of biodiversity. This has ensured that young generations incorporate environmental stewardship into their daily lives but also within their careers, particularly the built environment.

Leadership demonstrated2015 witnessed a paradigm shift in governmental consideration for the natural environment, and protection and recognition of the intrinsic value of the landscape rose up the agenda. The UN decade on biodiversity ensured action and improved the status of biodiversity. And the World Bank recognition in 2015 that climate change goals were not achievable without a landscape level focus was a game changer for negotiating landscapes for multiple benefits. The built environment sector also championed biodiversity. Tools such as BIM helped to understand true building requirements, minimising resources and waste, and a new marketplace for used building materials actively minimised resources required for sustainable development.

Lydia Dutton, Argent

Biodiversity Loss FUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

ContextIn 2015, all the talk was around climate change and energy security, but here in 2050, the natural environment is one of our biggest concerns. There is a sense of guilt that we allowed species to decline and didn’t make the most of past opportunities to protect them or enhance the natural environment.

Extinction rates are now 10 times the levels of 1990; much to do with the changing climate, but for developed countries like the UK, rapid urbanisation due to population growth led to loss of green space and with it habitat and associated biodiversity.

But as biodiversity became a major societal concern, green infrastructure was identified as a solution which could help stabilise local climates. Attention began to focus on how to manage microclimates and the specification of more green spaces became a key response.

Challenges overcomeIn the last two decades we have had a complete rethink in how we perceive green spaces and where we design them in. In the past, green space meant a park or garden, but now we’ll use any available area - whether that’s the façade of a building, a rooftop, derelict building or neglected and under-used land. This vertical approach has worked really well alongside a growing emphasis on cities.

This dramatic increase of green at the spatial scale has also been helped by a

changing perception of space in general. We no longer aspire for our own perfectly preened lawn, but instead realise we can access more green space, with more biodiversity, through shared schemes. The rise of guerrilla gardening, community farms, green walkways and pocket parks have transformed biodiversity in UK cities.

Leadership demonstratedThere were a number of cities that showed how a new approach to biodiversity could work, and this had a huge impact across the world. Back in 2015, the idea of a Green Grid in London seemed very bold indeed, but it’s been a great success. Identifying 11 Green Grid Areas to promote green infrastructure and facilitate collaboration and leadership has resulted in real action on the ground. And who would have thought our capital would ever enjoy special biodiversity status as it does today?

One of the sectors that’s embraced the biodiversity agenda is infrastructure. There has been a national approach to habitat enhancement projects and strict policies are now in place to guide infrastructure projects away from sensitive, native areas. Moreover, routine work on infrastructure, particularly transport, is moving towards collaborative working with adjacent landowners to encourage biodiversity and resilience on a larger scale than could be realised working alone.

Neil Strong, Network Rail

Biodiversity LossFUTURE LEADERLEADER

Thursday 3 March, 2050

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