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Foresight Training Day 2
Planning Foresight and Methods
Raija Koivisto & Mikko Dufva, VTT – Foresight and Socio-Technical Change
Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions
Christian Peña-Ratinen, Fingroup
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Conceptos clave
La prospectiva
Transición
Innovación
Escenarios
Visión
Sendero
Gobernanza
3
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
SU VISIÓN DESEABLE Y
CREÍBLE DE ANTOFAGASTA
Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
5
Visión es un objetivo deseable y creíble dando la dirección a una estrategia.
Incluye dimensiones: sociales, políticas, industriales y tecnológicas.
•VISIÓN •PRESE
NTE
Visión
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
METHODS - Q&A
Mikko Dufva, VTT
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Results from the questionnaire
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Expert panels
• Group of 10-20 individuals from different disciplines deliberate on the future of a given topic
What
• Determine topic
• Select experts
• Method of engagement: phone, meetings, online etc.
• Discussion and reaching consensus
• Dissemination
How
• Helps gather and synthesize relevant information
• Stimulates new insights & ideas
• Networking
Why
8
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Expert panels
Strengths
Brings together different
actors and views
Wide perspective on issues.
May uncover potential
innovations or unforeseen
risks.
Fast feedback.
Improves output quality of
final reports.
Weaknesses
Experts can be wrong
Groupthink
Missing weak signals
Different group may offer
different advice.
Costly and time consuming
Problems with group
dynamics
Dominating personalities
Lack of commitment
Sticking with an opinion
9
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Stakeholder analysis
10
Keep satisfied
Monitor
Encage closely
Keep informed
Power
Interest High Low
Low
High
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Decision modeling
11
Source: Marttunen, M 2011: Interactive multicriteria decision analysis in
the collaborative management of watercourses
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
INTRODUCTION TO METHODS
Mikko Dufva, VTT
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Different methods for different needs
Diagnosis: Understanding where we are
Scanning, SWOT, Patent analysis
Prognosis: Foresighting what could happen
Scenarios, Futures wheel, Delphi, Roadmapping, Trend impact
analysis
Prescription: Deciding what should be done
Backcasting, Key & critical technologies
Many methods can be used for different purposes
roadmapping for understanding where we are and what could
happen.
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Qualitative vs. quantitative
Qualitative: Methods providing meaning and interpretations
Backcasting, Scenarios, Surveys, Scanning, Interviews
Semi-quantitative: Methods that quantify subjectivity and judgements
Delphi, Multi-criteria analysis, Roadmapping
Quantitative: Methods measuring variables, using statistical analyses and
generating data
• Patent analysis, Trend extrapolation, Bibliometrics
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Exploratory vs. normative
Exploratory: What are the various
possible futures?
SWOT, Scenarios, Delphi
Normative: How could a specific
future be reached or avoided?
Roadmapping, backcasting
What sort of socio-economical
opportunities and threaths for
Antofagasta would emerge from the
developments in nanotechnology in the
next 10-20 years?
What would need to be done today to
achieve a high level of success for
Antofagasta’s reseach and industrial
capacities in nanotechnology in the next
10-20 years?
• Division is not clear; e.g. brainstorming can be both exploratory and
normative
• Normative methods need exploratory to feed them information
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Foresight for Security Research, FOR-LEARN workshop Düsseldorf Germany – 19-
04-2007
Methods within FOR-LEARN Online Guide Methods & Tools Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription Quantitative Qualitative Normative Exploratory Predictive Open
Environmental Scanning & Watching
XX X X
System Dynamics XX X X X X
Structural Analysis (e.g. MICMAC)
XX X X X X
Agent Modelling (e.g. MACTOR) XX X X X
SWOT Analysis XX X X X X
Trend Intra & Extrapolation X XX X X X X
Modelling & Simulation X XX X X X
Gaming X XX X X X
Creativity Methods (Brainstorming, Mindmapping…)
X XX X X X X X
Expert Panels XX X X X X X
Delphi survey X X X X X X XX X
Backcasting X XX X X X X
S&T Roadmapping X X X XX X X
Critical & Key Technology Study X X XX X X X X
Scenario Building XX X X X X
Morphological Analysis & Relevance Trees
XX X X X X
Cross-Impact Analysis (e.g. SMIC)
XX X X X X
Multi-Criteria Analysis (e.g. MULTIPOL)
XX X X X X
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Foresight diamond
Popper, R. (2008) Foresight Methodology, in Georghiou, L., Cassingena, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and
Popper, R. (eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 44-88.
Creativity-based methods rely on
• Imagination & original thinking
• Inspiration emerging from group work
Expertise-based methods rely on
• Experiences and knowledge sharing
Interaction-based methods rely on
• Bringing people together
• Discussion & knowledge exchange
Evidence-based methods rely on
• Facts and data
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Europe’s Top 10 Foresight Methods
SWOT
Futures Workshops
Extrapolation
Literature review
Scenarios
Expert panels
Brainstorming
Delphi
Interviews
Other methods
Popper et al (2007)
0 20 40
Technology Roadmapping
Structural analysis (e.g. MICMAC)
Essays
Key Technologies
Stakeholder Mapping
Backcasting
Citizens Panels
Megatrend Analysis
Delphi
Environmental Scanning
Interviews
Trend Extrapolation
Questionnaire / Survey
SWOT Analysis
Brainstorming
Futures Workshops
Other methods
Expert Panels
Scenarios
Literature Review
Common Methods in Regional Foresight
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Classes of Foresight methods
Criteria Methods
1. Methods based on eliciting expert
knowledge to develop long term
strategies
− Delphi method
− Experts panels
− Brainstorming
− Mindmapping
− Scenario analysis workshops
− SWOT analysis
2. Quantitative methods that make use
of statistics and other data
− Trend extrapolation
− Simulation modelling
− Cross impact analysis
− System dynamics
3. Methods to identify key points of
action to determine planning
strategies
− Critical/ key technologies
− Relevance trees
− Morphological analysis
(IPTS, 2009)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Three Examples (from Pr. Ron Johnston, Australian Centre for Innovation, Sydney, Australia)
Roadmapping Delphi Scenario
Time
Horizon 3-10 3-10 5-50
Type of
Future Preferred Likely Possible
Numbers 10-20 >100 30
People Experts + planners Experts Experts +
stakeholders
Logistics Simple Complex Fairly simple
Facilitated Probably No Yes
Key
Challenge Expert engagement Topic Preparation
Shareholder
engagement
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
COMBINAR MÉTODOS EN LA
PROSPECTIVA
Totti Könnölä, impetu Solutions
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Integración de perspectivas diversas
(Könnölä, 2011)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
La prospectiva nórdica de energía H2
(Nordic H2 Energy Foresight, 2006)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Taller de Escenarios
”Big vision”:
hydrogen’s share
of the total energy
consumption
(excl. industry)
•
• • •P2
•Big vision
•18%
• • •P •– • Primacy of
•Politics •
• • • •E1
•Big vision
•15%
•
•E •– • Energy •Entrepreneurs •and Smart
•Policies •
• •B3
•Big vision
•7%
• • • •B •– • Big Business
•Is Back •
•3. A sm •ooth path
•to the future •
•2. Undisputable
•CO •2 • problems •
•1. Hydrocarbon
•scarcity •
•Developments • •2015 •- •30 •
• •External sce •- •narios • •2003 •- •15 •
•H2 introduction
•- difficult
•- intermediate
•- easy
•Oil prices
(Nordic H2 Energy Foresight, 2006)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Taller de Visión
•Production and distribution of H2
•101
•102
•103
•104
•105 •106
•107
•108 •109
•110
•111
•112
•113
•115
•117
•118
•119
•120 •122 •123 •114 •116
•0
•1
•2
•3
•4
•5
•0 •1 •2 •3 •4 •5
•Nordic Market Potential 2030
•Te
ch
nic
al F
ea
sib
ilit
y 2
03
0
•Ranking of technology visions
•111 Wind power for H2
•112 H2 from reform of natural gas
•118 Energy production from RE
•119 Gasification of biomass
•Corresponding rankings for technology visions related to
•- hydrogen uses in transport
•- stationary uses of hydrogen
(Nordic H2 Energy Foresight, 2006)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Taller de Hojas de Ruta
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Production and transmission
H2 from NG
Electrolysers
NG seq. & H2 Central sequestration and H2 pipeline
H2 grid
New nuclear power in Finland?
10% H2 in NG grid
from local resources
Small decentral storage
NG grid
expanded
H2 filling stations based on local prod.
Electrolysis
Gasification of biomass
Liquid H2 Cryogenic tanks
First large scale plant
as buffer (wind)
Methanol?
300,000 GWh/y (Nordic)
Greenland: 1,400 GWh/y
Today 1,000MW, 2eurocent/kWh
Wind H2
New large scale hydro in Greenland and Iceland
Ship transport of H2
Large scale transport of H2 to storage
Electrical production from photovolt
Small scale biological H2
Biomass gasifiers
Small NG reformers, detailed
Automation,
compressors, pipelines
H2 for transport
Wind turbines
H2 for stationary use
H2 Nordpool
Reversal FC??
Target>
15% H2
NG: 50-70
RES and Nuclear:
50-30
Technology
Equipment Markets
Small scale & decentral
H2 production
•Scenario B3:
•NG 70%, RES (and nuclear) 30%
•Scenario E1 & P2:
•NG 50%, RES (and nuclear) 50%
(Nordic H2 Energy Foresight, 2006)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
La Prospectiva Nórdica de TIC
WP1
Preliminary studies
WP1
Preliminary studies
WP3
SWOT analyses
WP3
SWOT analyses
WP9
Reporting
WP9
Reporting
WP10
Nordic conference
WP10
Nordic conference
WP
2
We
b-s
ite &
in
form
ati
on
WP
2
We
b-s
ite &
in
form
ati
on
Selection of focus
areas and applications
WP7
Action workshop
WP7
Action workshop
WP6
Roadmap workshop
WP6
Roadmap workshop
National seminars
WP
11
Eva
lua
tio
n
WP
11
Eva
lua
tio
n
WP4
Scenario
and vision
workshop
WP4
Scenario
and vision
workshop
(Nordic ICT Foresight, 2007)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Combinación de escenarios y áreas temáticas
User acceptance
Business
paradigm
”Harmony”
”Conflict”
Open
source
Scenario 1:
ICT for Security’s Sake
Scenario 2:
The Nordic Mystique
Scenario 4:
Big Business Lock-In
Scenario 3:
Elite Users’ Paradise
EU
China
USEU
China
USEU
China
USEU
China
US
EU
China
USEU
China
US EU
China
USEU
China
US
Lock-in
(Information)
Security
(Information)
Security
Experience
economy
Experience
economyProduction
economy
Production
economy
HealthHealth
(Nordic ICT Foresight, 2007)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Un Modelo de Hoja de Ruta Socio-técnica
2006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 2015201420102009
Science and
education level
Technology
level
Business and
industry level
Market
level
Government
level
Vision 3
Vision 2
Vision 4
Vision 5
Vision 1
2006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 20152014201020092006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 20152014201020092006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 2015201420102009
Science and
education level
Technology
level
Business and
industry level
Market
level
Government
level
Vision 3Vision 3
Vision 2Vision 2
Vision 4Vision 4
Vision 5Vision 5
Vision 1Vision 1
(Nordic ICT Foresight, 2007)
Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and
Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning
Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3,
Vicente Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2
1Impetu Solutions, Madrid (Spain)
2Aalto University School of Science and
Technology, Espoo (Finland)
3JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)
The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
1. Identificación de temas
Selección de 6 áreas
Revisión de informes
2. Generación y evaluación de temas emergentes
Cuestionario
Análisis multicriterio
3. Síntesis horizontal y recomendaciones
Talleres Formalización de recomendaciones
Escaneo del horizonte (entorno)
(Könnölä et al., 2011)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
WORLD CAFÉ: CREATIVE
FORESIGHT METHODS
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
World Café - 4 creative foresight methods
Mindmap
Futures Wheel
STEEP
SWOT
33
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
PLANIFICACIÓN DE LA
PROSPECTIVA*
Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions
*Basado en ‘FORLEARN Online Guide’
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
La prospectiva temática:
Trabajos de grupo
Planificación
En el taller:
Desarrollo y presentación del
borrador del plan
Después del taller:
Elaboración del plan
Comentarios del profesor
Presentación en un seminario
Aplicación de métodos
En el taller
Conductores y escenarios
(aplicación de un método
creativo)
Visión
Hoja de ruta
Después del taller
Voluntario
35
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Desarrollo del plan en el taller
Martes
15:00 – 16:00 Viabilidad, enfoque y objetivo
16:10 – 17:00 Métodos
Miércoles
9:30 – 10:40 Ejecución y seguimiento
36
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Selección de un coordinador y un secretario
por cada grupo temático
Coordinador
• El en taller dirige y enfoca las conversaciones y controla el
tiempo.
• Después del taller coordinará el trabajo online de grupo y las
contribuciones de participantes.
Secretario
• En el taller toma notas con el ordenador y prepara las
presentaciones.
• Después del taller tendrá la responsabilidad de compilar el
informe y la presentación finales.
37
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Planificación de la Prospectiva
Viabilidad
Enfoque y objetivos
Métodos Ejecución
Seguimiento
38 (Modificado de ‘FORLEARN Online Guide’)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
Hitos clave en la planificación de la prospectiva
1. Evaluación de viabilidad: ¿Es la prospectiva una aproximación
apropiada en este contexto? ¿Quienes son los interesados (clientes,
participantes, usuarios finales) y qué initiativas estratégicas existen?
¿Genera valor añadido obvio y es posible vincularla con la acción?
2. Definir el enfoque y los objetivos: ¿Cuáles son el enfoque y los
objetivos del proyecto? ¿De qué temas y de cuál zona geográfica se
trata? ¿Qué grupos de interés tienen que involucrarse? ¿Hasta qué
fecha se hace el análisis al futuro? ¿Cuánto tiempo dura el proyecto?
3. Elegir los métodos: ¿Considerando el contexto, enfoque y objetivos,
qué métodos son apropiados? ¿Cómo combinarlos? ¿Qué método
alimenta a cuál?
4. Ejecución del proyecto: ¿Cómo asegurar qué el proyecto se ejecuta a
tiempo? ¿Cómo asegurar la participación extensa de los grupos de
interés y su compromiso en la acción? ¿Cómo prepararse para los
cambios inesperados?
5. Seguimiento: ¿Comó asegurar qué el proyecto va a alcancar sus
objetivos? ¿Los resultados serán plausibles, útiles e informativos? ¿El
proceso va a crear oportunidades de aprendizaje y nuevas redes de
contacto? ¿Cómo asegurar que los resultados son relevantes para la
toma de decisiones? ¿Comó evaluar si el proyecto ha sido exitoso?
39 (Könnölä, 2012)