FORESIGHT TOMORROWTODAY - AIT

THE INSTITUTEMOBILITYENERGYSAFETY & SECURITYFORESIGHT

ISSUE 5_2010

TOMORROWTODAY

/// DESIGNING THE FUTUREWHICH ANSWERS DOES THE FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENTDEPARTMENT PROVIDE TODAY TO THE QUESTIONS OF TOMORROW?

02 CONTENTS ISSUE 5_FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENT

INTRODUCTIONThe area of conflict between the present and future.

CLEAR ANSWERSSteering systems are rapidly becomingmore dynamic and complex. By using newmethodology, foresight processes shouldprovide the appropriate answers.

STRATEGIC PROCESSES FOR RTI POLICIESHow conventional research concepts can beadapted to current needs.

WITH THE RIGHT STRATEGIES FOR INNOVATIONWhich recommendations AIT researchersderive from using their innovation dynamicsanalysis.

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TECHNOLOGIES WITH UTILITY FOR EVERYONEAIT investigates the interaction betweensociety and technology as the decision-making foundation for RTI decisions.

TRACING CLIMATE CHANGETransparency of potential effects of climatechange on the domestic economy by meansof regional climatic scenarios.

SYSTEMATIC CONNECTION OF RTIAND INFRASTRUCTURE POLICYStimulation of the necessary capacities ofthe innovation system for sustainable development of the regions.

PERCEIVING WHEN SOMETHINGNEW ARISESVisualisation of research maps for the earlyidentification of scientific findings.

ORGANISING SELF-ORGANISATION …Individual forms for steering (complexity).

FUTURE EXPERTS FOR INNOVATION ECONOMICSCo-operation between AIT and the University of Economics of Vienna supporting young researchers.

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IMPRINT. Media owner and publisher_Bohmann Druck und Verlag GesmbH & Co. KG., A-1110 Wien, Leberstraße 122, Tel.: +43 1 740 95-0, E-Mail: [email protected]. DVR no.: 0408689. Management_Gabriele Ambros, Gerhard Milletich. Publisher_AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Tech Gate Vienna, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Wien, Tel.: +43 (0) 50550-0. Editors-in-chief_Michael Hlava, E-Mail: [email protected], Christian Klobucsar, E-Mail: [email protected]. Editors_Margit Noll, Daniel Pepl, Victoria Reinicke. Authors of this edition_Sylvia Anner, Raimund Lang. Layout_Marion Karasek. Print_Leykam Druck Ges.m.b.H. & Co KG. Cover shot_istockphoto.com. Publication_6 times annually. All rights, including accepting contributions in line with Art. 44 (1) and (2) Copyright Law, are reserved. ISSN1994-5159 (Print), ISSN 1994-5167 (Online).Free subscription via [email protected].

ISSUE 5_FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCTION 03

THE AREA OF CONFLICT BETWEENTHE PRESENT AND FUTURE

WIDE-RANGING IDEAS OF THE FUTURE are often closelyconnected with positive or negative utopias that should beachieved or avoided. With the modern concept of the fu-ture, the future is considered designable and ideally con-tains an improvement of the status quo. The basic assump-tions of what the future is, how it should be plannable, con-trollable and designable, are seldom explicitly negotiated.But the way the “better future” is represented and how weattempt to control and form it has changed decisively overthe last hundred years.

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In the 1920s, the Russian economist Vasiliy Kondratieff, forinstance, is considered a pioneer, defining the theory of the“long waves” based on observations of economic fluctua-tions, which was later taken and expanded by the AustrianJoseph Schumpeter.

RIGHT ANSWERS TO THE CHALLENGES OF OUR TIMEThe need for orientation guides is definitely larger todaythan ever. Climate change, resource scarcity and demogra-phic change, but also financial crises and increased business

/// Foresight research was a twentieth century development. It arose

due to the challenge of finding valid answers to the complex questions

of our society. But also from the growing need for the orientation by

decision-makers in politics and the economy. ///

04 INTRODUCTION ISSUE 5_FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENT

location competition set the pace and also demonstratethat the global challenges are highly complex and cannot beunderstood with conventional models.This touches on the limits of political and economic abili-ty to act. In addition, the prediction and/or planning ho-rizons are shrinking. If earlier governments and companymanagement used to be able to plan decades in advance,

today short-term crisis management scenarios and quickresult optimisation are the focus. But just for that, a long-term orientation would be necessary, since only those whoproperly recognise great developments and related uncer-tainties can avoid risks and take advantage of potentialwindows of opportunity.Decision-makers from politics and industry therefore uti-lise the expertise of scientists who use special foresight pro-cesses to decode complex scenarios and demonstrate po-tential answers that are then the basis for further measures.

AUSTRIA’S EXPERTISE LEADING EUROPEThe expert group centred round Josef Fröhlich, AIT’s Headof the Foresight & Policy Development Department, pro-vides just these answers. The team does not only supportthe domestic government to estimate future scenarios, butalso offers its service to industry. The team is so successfulthat the Department is now in the Top 3 in Europe in thefield of foresight, and is regularly commissioned by the Eu-ropean Commission.Scientists deal preferentially with research questions, for in-stance which research topics will be important in the longrun, which should be expanded because of the strengths ofdomestic sciences and economy, or which RTI fields havesufficient synergies, so they can provide impulses for otherareas. But also which future fields are interdisciplinary andcan therefore only be localised by means of special proce-

dures. The definitive answers derived often promise com-pletely new cognition approaches in science and technolo-gy and therefore substantially contribute to the improve-ment of quality of life and saving resources, in general, aswell as securing a business location.

COMPLEX SYSTEMS REQUIRE ENTIRELY STATE-OF-THE-ART FORESIGHT METHODSHow complex this work is can be demonstrated by indivi-dual projects of staff of AIT’s Foresight & Policy Develop-ment Department. For instance, a team is currently re-searching the sustainable availability of infrastructure –especially in the case of mobility, energy and health care –thus, the main indicators for life quality and economic per-formance. The challenge when estimating future develop-ments and their simulation is that time horizons are long,up to fifty years, and the individual processes have to be co-ordinated with each other despite varying time horizons.A further example is the regional estimation of the effectsof climate change that can only be partially compared to ot-her models due to Austria’s geographic situation. Early re-cognition of the potential effects is elementary both for po-litical and economic measures. Due to the correct estima-tion of the frequency and seriousness of extreme events, li-ke heavy rains and flooding, corresponding preventative

measures can be taken. The exact knowledge of intensiveheat waves serves as the foundation for planting appropria-te fuels in agriculture and forestry as well as the case of(winter) tourism, which needs to find alternative offers if,in the future only the ski regions at high altitudes have suf-ficient snow.

Doris Bures, Federal Minister of Transport, Innovation and Technology:

"The AIT experts provide us with answersthat are required for the measures needed to meet the challenges of

a changing society."

AIT Commercial Managing Director Anton Plimon: "Our foresight specialists

have the know-how to make the organisation fit for the future,

supporting, considering and ensuring decisions holistically."

ISSUE 5_FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCTION 05

FORESIGHT RESEARCH AT THE HEART OF THE ECONOMYA sharp focus is also placed on support organisations intheir innovation processes. In doing so, AIT experts pavethe way from brainstorming to the implementation of spe-cific products or services. Above all, what is essential is theknowledge round the cost dynamics of research, which ha-ve still hardly been discussed. The researchers also use newmodels, for instance “Open Innovation”, to identify thefirst signs of innovation strategies. Especially those whichcould develop into sustainable trends providing corre-sponding solutions for their implementation.In general, early perception of when new things arise is oneof the pillars of the Foresight Department. With “BibTech-Mon”, special software was developed to perfectly visuali-se even complex research and technology maps. The ad-vantage is that emerging – hidden or unexpected new tech-nologies due to interdisciplinarity – can be more easilyidentified. And this visual presentation makes it much ea-sier to recognise connections quickly and establish a timeadvantage when developing new strategies.

SUPPORT, ABOVE ALL, FOR SMES, TOOA significant fact about the team centred round Josef Fröh-lich is that they do not just offer their expertise to politicsand large companies, but also support the SMEs, which areespecially strong in Austria. Small and medium-sized en-terprises are known in many areas as the trendsetters oftechnological progress, but often cannot afford the risksconnected with cutting-edge research.“Austrian Corporate Foresight” therefore begins in the ca-se of this orientation guide of SMEs by accessing goodpractice methods and results of participative, European,national and sector foresight processes and makes themavailable to small and medium-sized enterprises.

FORESIGHT – SECURING THE YOUTH Despite the enormous need for such support, seasoned ex-perts in this field are rare all over Europe. Whereas a lot ofattention is being paid to the expansion of the topic of fo-resight in the USA and Asia, Europe has a significant needto catch up. AIT Department Head Fröhlich has thereforeinitiated a purposeful education initiative with the Univer-sity of Economics of Vienna for altogether 15 doctoral can-

didates and 50 graduates to ensure researchers in the futu-re. In order to be able to guarantee these future experts ininnovation economics and education at the highest inter-national level, the students receive AIT expert mentors inaddition to intensive support from internationally recog-nised scientific advisors from the University of Economics.Moreover, those who would like to write their diploma the-sis, master thesis or dissertation within the framework of“Innovation Economics Vienna” are also supported finan-cially. ///

AIT Director Wolfgang Knoll: The knowhow of our researchers

is very sought after internationally. In Europe, our Foresight Team is amongst

the Top 3 when it come to questions about the future.”

Hannes Androsch, Research Board Member: “If Europe does not want to be marginalised in the twenty-first century and sink into insignificance, political leaders need to increasingly

involve foresight experts in the decision-making process.”

CLEAR ANSWERS

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A DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE DYNAMICS OF STRATEGICAND POLITICO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS is new findings inscience and research. Information and communicationstechnologies are a pertinent example. They have led to afast-paced acceleration of information exchange andtherefore to the creation of new knowledge. The dyna-mics of the systems, however, makes it more and moredifficult for political decision-makers and company ma-nagement to apply the correct measures in a timely fa-shion.There are three factors in particular which are responsi-ble for the increasing complexity of the systems to be re-gulated. Firstly, the number of players in a system is con-tinuously rising. Among other things, this leads to tho-se involved being more differentiated and concentratedon specific functions that they fulfil in the system. Theincreasing number of players is accompanied by newand/or additional playing rules in the systems to be re-gulated. These are justified by more and more new chal-lenges that our economy and politics are faced with.Thirdly, the individual systems are growing together geo-graphically – which is expressed in the globalisation ofbusiness and/or research and development.

NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR POLITICS AND THE ECONOMYFROM THE COMBINATION OF THEORY AND PRACTICEThe measures that have been used so far to regulate sim-ple systems, can no longer be applied to current issues.“The main challenge for politics and the economy lies indiscovering and utilising new methods and models,” ishow Josef Fröhlich, Head of the Foresight & Policy De-velopment Department at AIT Austrian Institute ofTechnology, explains the starting point of his researchwork. The Department deals with innovation and su-stainability research regarding the great challenges of ourtime, for example resource scarcity, climate change or theeffects of globalisation. This is based on scientificallyproven methods to describe and analyse the respectivecomplex systems involved. In addition, new regulation

/// Politics and the economy are more and more often faced with the fact that the

systems that they should regulate are becoming more dynamic and complex. This

makes completely new methods and models for monitoring and analysis necessary,

especially foresight processes, simulations and network research. They should pro-

vide the answers to the challenges of the future to keep a country internationally

competitive. The AIT team of experts centred round Josef Fröhlich is one of the best

in Europe in this field. ///

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Josef Fröhlich:“The main challenge for politics and the economy isdetecting and utilising newmethods and models todecode complex systems. We support this process with our expertise.”

ISSUE 5_FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENT 07

and governance models are needed. In combination,they should contribute to the effectiveness and efficien-cy of measures in politics and the economy being raised.

COMPLEX COORDINATIONThe AIT Department Foresight & Policy Developmentcurrently employs 47 staff coming from the most variedscientific disciplines, from natural sciences to enginee-ring and formal sciences to economics and social and po-litical sciences. Research is both transdisciplinary as wellas interdisciplinary, and every year there are between 120and 180 both national as well as international co-opera-tion partners who work on scientific projects and/or pu-blications. “We use this network, which will be extendedby another 20 graduates and doctoral candidates, bothfor expanding competences and achieving new findings,”specifies the Head of Department. “An on-going assess-ment of our scientific knowhow takes place by means ofpublications in expert journals relevant for the impact

factor. Two pieces recently published in such periodicals– one by Michael Barber and Thomas Scherngell in “Pa-pers in Regional Science” as well as one by Karl HeinzLeitner and Andrea Kasztler in the “Journal of Intellec-tual Capital” – received the prize for the best article of theyear,” states Josef Fröhlich, delighted about the interna-tional recognition of his team’s research performance.This scientific competence receives additional dynamicimpulses by being confronted with customers’ problems.Especially for innovation and sustainability research, theDepartment’s focus, the combination of science andpractice, is an essential advantage. Among other things,it has led to the Department belonging to the “Top 3 Or-ganisations” in Europe in the field of network research.The Department has also been recognised by the Euro-pean Commission for its work in the field of methodsand models for foresight processes by being awarded theco-ordination of the European Foresight Platform. Thepurpose of this platform is to support foresight activitiesin Europe and to connect them with other global playersin order to exchange new developments. But not onlyEurope is interested in the Department’s research activi-ty: A memorandum of understanding has recently beenconcluded between the Department and the ChineseAcademy of Science and Technology for Development.The aim is the exchange of scientific findings and to con-duct joint foresight projects.

VERY NEAR TO THE CUSTOMER“In order to optimize the support for customers from po-litics and the economy,” says Fröhlich, “the Departmenthas orientated its three business units on the most impor-tant customer segments. The RTI Policy Business Unitdeals with research, technology and innovation policiesand in this way supports the EU Commission as well asthe respective ministries in Austria and abroad. The Re-gional and Infrastructure Policy Business Unit focuses onthe significance of innovation and sustainability for thedevelopment of new infrastructures as well as regionaldevelopment, climate protection and climatic conse-quences research. The Technology Management BusinessUnit concentrates on the challenges facing companies inconnection with innovation and sustainability. The com-bination of theory and practice utilised by the Depart-ment provides our customers in the field of RTI, regionaland infrastructure policies and those in the field of eco-nomics with completely new perspectives.”

METHODS AND MODELS FOR DYNAMIC PROCESSESThe work by the Department’s staff concentrates on twoareas – so-called “research fields”. Monitoring & Analy-sis Technology-Economy-Environment deals with thedevelopment of methods and models for the specificevaluation of data from the interface of technology, eco-nomics and environment. Modelling is an essential pre-requisite to estimate future developments. For instance,new models for local climatic modelling have been deve-loped. This is necessary, since the effects of climatechange on the individual regions are at times entirely dif-

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ferent due to Austrian topography. A downscaling of theresults of global climate models to individual regions inAustria is therefore not possible due to mathematic rea-sons alone. Thus, the AIT Department is working on lo-cal climatic models, for which global climatic modelsprovide the basic atmospheric conditions. Only in thisway is it possible to estimate the effects of climate changein Austria – regarding areas and/or residential areas usedfor touristic and agricultural purposes – and set measu-res to meet the challenges in this connection. The con-sequences of these measures for certain sectors, for in-stance the field of energy, can be estimated using suchmodels. In this manner, important prerequisites for cli-mate protection and climatic consequences research ha-ve been fulfilled in the Department.In this research field, methods are also being developed inorder to estimate the dynamics of technological develop-ment. A focus is set on recognising emerging technologiesin the economy and politics. “Today we have the issue,”states Fröhlich, “that we are confronted with an enormous-ly high degree of information density. That makes it moreand more difficult to select relevant knowledge from thevariety of sources distributed across the planet. Withouthighly specialised knowhow, it is not possible to have an ef-ficient gatekeeper function – deciding which informationis really relevant. Alone due to this, it is easily derived thatthe process of creating knowledge becomes the bottleneckof our actions. We therefore need new methods and mo-dels to develop special filters to reduce the flood of infor-mation in a qualitative way.”In order to detect emerging technologies from the abun-dance of technical literature, the Department’s expertshave developed scientometric, or quantitative methods,to conduct scientific research, bibliometric processes,with the help of which such a detection of new techno-logies becomes possible. “A substantial part of new tech-nological advances are combinations of existing techno-logies. We therefore also deal with how individual fieldsof technology are related to each other in order to com-bine them in new ways, which then, in an ideal case, leadsto a technological breakthrough,” is how Fröhlich descri-bes the work of his “gatekeeper”.

ESTIMATING FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS BY MEANS OF SIMULATION MODELSThe second research field is dedicated to the fields of fo-resight and governance, a range of topics that is general-ly not conclusively and sustainably predictable from theunderstanding of dynamic processes. “Sometimes,though,” the Head of Department emphasises, “the pre-dictions are right. That is a typical phenomenon of com-plex systems that behave like simple systems for an un-predictable period of time and are then easier to predict.But even the smallest unsuspected changes cause dis-equilibrium in the system and all predictions are then off.Today decision-makers in politics and the economy aretherefore not interested in predicting the future, but ha-ving possible scenarios presented to be able to react ac-cordingly.”In order to provide such a spectrum of potential futuredevelopments, the experts of the Foresight Departmentutilise simulation models that are based on intelligentagent systems. “For the biotech region of Vienna, we ha-ve posed the question, for instance, which interventionscould have which effects in this region. In order to be ab-le to provide an answer, the sector information systemwas modelled with an intelligent agent system. Using thismodel, it should be possible in the future to estimate theeffects of various political measures in the biotech systemand to derive recommendations for politics on this ba-sis.” Which political measures are an efficient and effec-tive intervention in a sector innovation system is to be in-vestigated using a further simulation in the field of avia-tion in Austria. “In this system, it is above all interestingwhich contribution Austrian RTI policies can make to in-creasing the competitiveness of Austrian companies thatare principally suppliers of large, internationally activeaviation companies,” is how Josef Fröhlich outlines thescientific challenge.

FORESIGHT PROCESSES FOR DESIGNING THE FUTUREUsing foresight processes, the focus on the investigationof various development scenarios is set in order derivemeasures for the specific development of steering activi-ties. The basis is provided by scientific input in the fore-

BAND 5_FORESIGHT & POLICY DEVELOPMENT 09

sight process. The spectrum of methods is extremely di-versified and utilises social and economic science me-thods as well as the aforementioned biblometrical, scien-tometrical or statistical processes. By including relevantstakeholders in foresight processes, they can be characte-rised as transdisciplinary research activities. This leadsto findings not only providing courses of action for RTIpolicies and – in the case of corporate foresight – for thedecision-makers in the economy. By means of resultsproduced in a participative fashion, a common under-standing of the customers involved in foresight processesis also gained. The latter leads to an orientation of com-plex systems based on stakeholder’s decisions in their re-spective fields from jointly achieved results in the fore-sight process.The team centred round Josef Fröhlich has conductedmore than 50 such foresight projects over the past few ye-ars, most of them for the European Commission. Moreo-ver, the Department has more than 5,000 descriptions ofcomparable projects conducted in Europe with the co-ordination of the European Foresight Platform.

NETWORK RESEARCHA further instrument to steer complex systems is networkresearch. Social networks – especially within the scientificcommunity – are therefore the main research topics of theDepartment. Such combinations have arisen in Europe be-cause of the EU research programmes introduced severalyears ago. They received their original importance from theutilisation of various resources for research and develop-ment in the individual member states of the European Uni-on. In the meantime, close-knit European R&D networkshave been established by the research projects of the cur-rently seven Framework Programmes.Thanks to its EUPRO database, the Department has acomprehensive source of information that describes allEuropean research, including its numerous R&D net-works. The network research of the AIT experts on thebasis of this EUPRO database therefore provides valuab-le tips for the efficient and effective design of RTI policymeasures in Austria. Its utilisation could also serve all ot-her EU partners, though, as a basis for new findings in or-der to be at the head of the global R&D competition. ///

Thanks to its EUPRO database, the AIT Foresight & Policy Development Departmenthas a comprehensive source of information that describes all European research,including its numerous R&D networks.


STRATEGIC PROCESSES FORRTI POLICIES/// In the light of rapidly changing requirements and properties of research,

technology and innovation processes, RTI policy concepts and instruments have

to be adapted to new conditions and/or developed anew. ///

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Matthias Weber: “Our research questions are aimed above all at the basic structures and conditions of innovations.”

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN SOCIETY lead to new require-ments for research, technological developments and inno-vation. Due to growing dynamics and complexity, uncer-tainty in RTI policies also increases. In order to be able toact effectively and efficiently in terms of providing sustai-nable solutions to social and economic problems –whichrequires process, behavioural and technological changes to

be made –not only current trends have to analysed; in ad-dition future developments have to be anticipated in thecontext of foresight processes and corresponding strategieshave to be developed to deal with them.In order for RTI to be able to contribute to these solutionsand its innovative potential for the future to be unfolded,effective and well-co-ordinated organisation structures,

governance processes and policy instruments are needed toshape the future. In doing so, it must be taken into accountthat the specific challenges for RTI policies stem above allfrom the growing openness and connectedness of innova-tion processes, from the organisation and promotion of co-operative research, and from the internationalisation oftechnological development. “Innovation systems are theresult of interactive processes with lots of players – univer-sities, research institutions, companies, but also those whofinance research, such as banks and venture capital firms,”emphasises Matthias Weber, Head of the Research, Techno-logy & Innovation Policy Business Unit in AIT’s Foresight& Policy Development Department. “Our research questi-ons are above all related to fundamental structures andconditions of innovation as well as to the organisation ofAustrian RTI policy and the comparison with the RTI po-licies of other countries, in order to be able to detect possi-ble development paths or to identify alternative institutio-nal settings, for instance, how well universities are positio-ned.” Seasoned research and project experience flows intoforesight and strategy processes regarding the structuralchallenges of RTI policies. And “by monitoring, analysing,comparing and evaluating regional and national researchand innovation systems, we derive recommendations forRTI policy,” is how Weber outlines the spectrum of his re-search services, whose customers are above all stakeholdersin government and in the RTI policy field at the nationaland European level.

FOCUS SHIFT TOWARDS “GRAND CHALLENGES”“Over the last five years, the focus of national and Europe-an RTI policies has shifted from a sole orientation on eco-nomic utility to the so-called “grand challenges”, i.e. towardslarge societal challenges with which our societies will be fa-ced in the years and decades to come. Joint technology pro-jects, competitiveness and the economic benefit of researchand development are still important, but economic goals areno longer the only benchmark. That means, too, that the fo-resight perspectives extend well beyond the five-year timehorizon. And this raises the question where today’s decisi-ons intervene in these paths,” Weber explains.He sees RTI policies in Austria at a crossroad: “In somefields, Austria is advanced, for instance in the case of ener-gy systems and mobility. Other topics associated to thegrand challenges have not been raised yet in research poli-cy. For instance, in the field of health care there is the que-stion of what the health care system will look like in the fu-ture, and what kinds of new technological solutions will beneeded. Similarly, in the field of governance, issues of co-herence have been raised recently, with major implicationsfor the co-ordination of various policy areas.” In Weber’sopinion, a clear positioning is a central issue for a smallcountry. But: “Sustaining strengths is not enough; it is justpreserving the prevailing structures. Along with the posi-tioning, a sustainable portfolio has to be created that - byapplying a mix of bottom-up and top-down mechanisms -provides a sufficient source of new ideas from fundamen-tal research whileat the same time allowing concentrationof efforts guided by demand-driven research and thematicprogrammes.”

STRATEGIC PROCESS: “VIENNA THINKS ABOUT THE FUTURE”At the heart of the strategy process “Vienna thinks aboutthe future”, which has recently been scientifically suppor-ted by Weber’s team, was the question of which strategicorientation based on existing challenges would be bestsuited to secure the continuous development of Vienna asa Central European capital of research.Four expert groups were working in parallel on the topics“Economy – Research, Technology and Innovation in Busi-ness”, “Science – Research Priorities and Knowledge Trans-fer”, Society – Science and Society” as well as “City – CityDevelopment for the Research Location of Vienna”. Speci-al consideration has been paid to the respective cross-cut-tingg subjects of gender aspects, human resources, politicsof the European Union and (international, regional, city)networking.Based on the results of the expert groups, challenges andfields of activity were identified and appropriate specificmeasures were formulated for the years to come, set withinthe frame of an overall vision of the “Research, Technolo-gy and Innovation Strategy of the City of Vienna” Theyconcern the fields of “human resources”, “thematic priori-



ties”, “communication, learning and the pu-blic”, “Vienna as a greenhouse for researchand innovation”, as well as “Vienna as an in-ternational network node”. Most of themeasures recommended have been imple-mented in the meantime.Their expertise in foresight has also broughtthe scientists into the EU project “FarHori-zon – Use of foresight to align research withlonger term policy needs in the EuropeanCommission”, the objective of which is tocontribute to a better co-ordination betweeninnovation and research policies and sectorpolicies as well as between national and Eu-ropean policy levels by means of foresightmethods. “Within the scope of a further EUproject, we are conducting foresight proces-ses for nine sectors, amongst them the texti-le, construction and automotive industries,biotechnology, for knowhow-intensive ser-vices as well as for aeronautics and space in-dustries,” adds Weber.

MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITHCHINAIntensive co-operation and exchange of in-formation in the field of foresight processeshas been agreed between the AIT Depart-ment and the Chinese Academy of Scienceand Technology for Development (CASTED) by means ofa memorandum of understanding concluded in Beijing on18 October 2010.The starting point was a meeting organised by the Chine-se Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and theFederal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technolo-gy (BMVIT), where the role of foresight processes for RTIpolicies was discussed.CASTED is the main research institution for the ChineseRTI policy and deals with the development of strategies forresearch and technology policies as well as promoting re-gional policy processes. Over the last two years, it has con-ceived and implemented all Chinese technology foresightprocesses of the Ministry and conducted a project on or-ganisational forms of co-operation between science andindustry with the AIT Foresight & Policy DevelopmentDepartment.Four focal points are foreseen in the memorandum for theco-operation between Austria and China: exchange of in-formation, which is ensured by a joint newsletter and webplatform, annual conferences, joint research and work pro-jects as well as exchange programmes for scientists.

COMPARISON OF MODELS FOR ECONOMIC / SCIENTIFICCO-OPERATIONCo-operations between the science and the industry sectorare one of the main elements to stimulate modern innova-tion processes. Public aid programmes – from EuropeanFramework Programmes to regional initiatives – are aimedat stimulating co-operative research. On behalf of the

BMVIT and Ministry of Science and Technology in China,the experts for the field “Analysis & Evaluation of R&D Co-operation Networks” created a comparison study on orga-nisational models for the co-operation between compa-nies, universities and extra-university research institutions.“The special challenge for the co-operation between com-panies, universities and extra-university research instituti-ons in China and Austria lies in companies having differentlogical reasoning than universities,” comments ProjectHead Thomas Scherngell. “Universities want to publishtheir newly produced knowledge quickly, since it has an ef-fect on their ranking. Companies sometimes think differ-ently.” For co-operation, institutionalised models are the-refore important, “where it is specifically stipulated whocan publish what.”With the competence centre COMET, Austria has such amodel, which – just like the Chinese version of the Strate-gic Alliances of the MOST – was analysed in the study ac-cording to various aspects, for instance the corporate go-vernance structure, strategic orientation, generation anddistribution of knowledge or the functioning of researchand finance management. “We have worked out the diffe-rences in the two models and derived implications for Au-strian and Chinese technology policies. From the Chinesepoint of view, one of the main conclusions was to ensurethat the alliances are continuously promoted by authori-ties, as is the case for the COMET Programme.” From theAustrian point of view, a more intensive combination ofinfrastructure and RTI policy is stimulated – on the basisof the experiences with the Chinese programme.

Thomas Scherngell: “Co-operationsbetween the science and the industrysector are of crucial importance in modern innovation processes.”


/// INGOLF SCHÄDLER, HEAD OF THE FIELD „INNOVATION“ AT THE BMVIT, ON THE BASICSOF DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES.

Strategic decisions in the field of RTI arebecoming more and more difficult due tocomplex and dynamic processes. Whichorientation guides does, for instance, theBMVIT use in order to set the right stee-ring measures?

An important orientation framework forour work at the BMVIT is the Federal Government’s RTI strategy. Thisstrategy is based on comprehensive analyses, for instance the systemevaluation we have commissioned as well as on an exhaustive discussionamongst all those involved. Moreover, the BMVIT is involved in a numberof on-going processes at European level with the EU Commission, othermember states, the European industry and other important stakeholders,where future trends and developments in the field of RTI are discussed indepth and finally decided upon. In addition, the BMVIT commissions inde-pendent studies on various future topics, reaching its conclusions basedon the on-going evaluations of its RTI programmes and has access to thecorresponding data and facts of research promotion.

In your point of view, which innovation-related strategic processes arewe more successful at, and where do we need to make changes?Austria is in the meantime characterised by very good co-operation bet-ween science and the economy and a high degree of innovative capabilityamong small and medium-sized businesses, whose products are often atthe top of the international range. This innovative power is supported by ahighly efficient and generous research promotion system.The aforementioned system evaluation names the lack of a connectionbetween the educational sector and the field of innovation as one ofAustria’s essential weaknesses. We should not forget that the develop-ment to a knowhow society and high-tech economy is only possible withhighly educated people. Thus, the growing lack of graduates, and especi-ally female graduates, from natural science and technical studies is a realhurdle on our path to be listed as one of the Top 3 innovation locations inEurope.

AIT is one of the Top 3 organisations in network research in Europe. To what degree is Austria therefore involved in EU strategy processesdue to its expertise?AIT has excellent knowhow in the fields of network analysis and foresightand is involved in corresponding EU excellence initiatives. Moreover, thereis a variety of fantastic research groups for various topics at AIT that arenow sustainably supported and promoted in their excellence by the newstructures and the clear, focussed strategy. Following the successful newimplementation, AIT is now on the best track to write a new success storyin the field of RTI and to become an example of an applied, extra-universityresearch institution. ///

NETWORKS AS A STRUCTURAL INDICATORThe R&D networks established by the EU Framework Pro-grammes at the level of thematic programmes were inve-stigated in detail on behalf of the Institute for ProspectiveTechnological Studies, IPTS, of the European Commission.To analyse R&D co-operation networks in Europe, F&PDset up the EUPRO database, which contains systematic andstandardised information on all projects, participating or-ganisations and their connection from the first to the Se-venth Framework Programmes. The database is thereforea unique resource in Europe to empirically analyse networkstructures and dynamics, for instance in various topics orfrom a geographic perspective.“Networks are a new type of structural indicator for R&Dco-operations, regarding the number of projects, participa-tions and position of the players in the networks, where, inthe case of the latter, the combination of performance andproximity to the main players is of importance,” explainsMatthias Weber.How Austria is positioned in the European R&D networkswithin the Seventh Framework Programme is examined byAIT expert Barbara Heller-Schuh, where her attention is onthe connection to organisations that create structures in thenetwork. “As our interim report demonstrates,” explainsHeller-Schuh, “Austria has an above-average participationin most topics in the Framework Programmes, is very wellconnected and well positioned in the backbone area of theEuropean R&D networks. That permits considerations ofwhich promotional measures at the national level are sen-sible as a complement to European measures.”

Barbara Heller-Schuh: “Our

research demon-strates that Austriais well positionedin most topics inthe research net-works of the EU

Framework Programmes.”


THE ORGANISATION OF INNOVATION PROCESSES is beco-ming more and more important in light of global compe-tition. The road from idea generation to implementationof specific products or services is paved with changing ba-sic conditions. An important trend in innovation manage-ment is the internationalisation of research and develop-ment (R&D). It comes to one’s attention, that above all, internationallyactive groups as well as strong medium-sized companiesoutsource their research activities more and more to thecountries where their target markets are located. A further

trend is the increased involvement of external partners incompany processes. In the field or research, these are uni-versities and non-university research institutions. “In stu-dies, we are trying to analyse and understand the dynamicsof innovation processes,” says Karl Heinz Leitner from theAIT Research, Technology & Innovation Business Unit. “Ina second step, we develop strategies and formulate recom-mendations for our customers.” Above all customers are,in addition to companies, the research, technology and in-novation (RTI) policy makers, knowhow-intensive organi-sations and promotional institutions.

WITH THE RIGHT STRATEGIESFOR INNOVATION/// Generating and managing innovation is currently in a state of change. AIT

researchers are analysing these dynamics and formulating recommendati-

ons for companies, authorities and political decision-makers. ///

Pho

tos: Krischa

nz & Zeiler, AIT Austrian Institu

te of Techn

olog

y, Pho

todisc

Karl-Heinz Leitner: “In studies, weare trying to analyse and under-stand the dynamics of innovationprocesses.”

As project co-ordinator, Leitner is currently examining wit-hin the framework of the EU project “Analysis of the evo-lution of the costs of research – trends, drivers and im-pacts” why the costs for research are rising so quickly. Twocontradictory theories provide possible explanations. Atfirst glance, rising wage levels are evident. Cost driverscould also be the better-equipped high-tech laboratories,stronger computers and other infrastructure. “This issuehas not been dealt with sufficiently in the academic litera-ture so far,” says Leitner.By means of a survey of 2,000 companies ranked highest onthe European R&D Scoreboard, it should now be examinedhow well informed they are of these topics and which mea-sures are set in order to regulate costs. If one compares thefield of research with highly optimised production, it canbe seen that it is substantially more difficult to record thecomponents of R&D costs. Tolerance for potential coun-termeasures also exceeds by far simple cost controlling.“One can hire cheaper researchers, for instance students orgraduates,” says Leitner. “In the biotech industry, lots ofstandard tasks can be automated, for instance gene sequen-cing. “Another possibility to steer costs is to increase out-put. For instance, by setting up spin-offs or licensing pa-tents. The contractor of the project “Costs of research” isDG Research which is responsible for the research, techno-logy and innovation agendas of the European Commissi-on. The results should support them when working out the8th Framework Programme.

FASTER PACE IN RESEARCH AND INNOVATIONThe oft cited increased pace of life poses special challengesto companies. In highly competitive global markets newproducts have to be launched more quickly and, at the sa-me time, their life cycle is getting shorter. In light of this si-tuation, new approaches for developing innovations aremore in demand than ever. The scientists at AIT have in-depth knowledge of current developments and futuretrends owing to their experience and on-going work withthese dynamics.“For instance, the model of open innovation presented se-veral years ago by Henry Chesbrough is a common widelydiscussed and diffused trend,” says Leitner. “But there is al-so a whole series of other new models, like network inno-vation, value innovation or design innovation.” Leitner co-ordinates the European project “Innovation Fu-tures” (INFU), where so-called weak signals are identified,the first signs of innovation strategies that could one daydevelop into sustainable trends. At the project Internet si-te www.innovation-futures.org, there is a twelve-minutevideo that presents 19 such innovation visions in a visual-ly attractive way. The basis was comprehensive data re-search in various Internet sources.“The project is not about identifying new products ortechnologies,” explains Leitner. “It is more the issue of howinnovation will be organised in the future.” Innovationcamps are currently very popular. Companies invite peoplewith varied technical backgrounds to a meeting lasting se-veral days, where ideas are developed jointly, working inlarge and small groups, and often using unconventionalcreativity techniques. A variant are condensed idea work-

shops that take place for 24 hours and include persons allaround the globe. Especially enlightening are create-it-yourself shops, where customers can create their own pro-ducts. The company provides the materials and tools, andthe customers provide the ideas. Other companies, on theother hand, are investing in calls for ideas, in which anyo-ne can take part. The best ideas or suggestions are normal-ly compensated with lucrative prizes. In the project “Inno-vation Futures”, such approaches are documented and fu-ture scenarios are then developed. What connects them isthe intention to design innovation processes by means ofthe explicit inclusion of external people. By doing so, oldthought patterns can be broken and new perspectivesachieved that are often overlooked by the classical methodsof innovation generation.

COMPETITIVENESS BY MEANS OF INTERNATIONALISATIONA significant trend is the increased internationalisation ofresearch and development. AIT scientist Bernhard Dachsdeals with this and authored a background article for the


Innovation camps are currently very popular. Company management invitespeople with different technical backgroundsto a meeting lasting several days.


current Competitiveness Report of the EU. Once a year, theCompetitiveness Report examines certain topics connectedto the competitiveness of Europe. Dachs’ contributionanalyses in particular the internationalisation of companyresearch. “I dealt with three questions,” says Dachs. “Towhat extent development takes places, which strategies in-novators choose and how politics should act.” Internatio-nalisation is most evident due to the fact that many com-panies establish R&D departments outside of their homecountry. “One of the main reasons is that these countriesare becoming more important as sales markets,” explainsDachs. “Thus, the necessity arises to adapt products to thelocal markets.”For instance, the Chinese automotive market presents to-tally different requirements for a vehicle than the Europe-an market. Cars often have to be larger and more luxurio-us. But climatically different conditions also play a role.The different fuel quality, on the other hand, requires ad-aptations to fuel injection technology. It is therefore natu-ral to conduct specific developments directly in the coun-try of the sales market. That is not always considered po-sitive, though.In particular, outsourcing development to classic low-wa-ge countries like China or India is often seen as a potentialthreat to Europe as a business location. Bernhard Dachsputs theses perspectives into relation: On the one hand,this development is by far not the mass phenomenon it isoften claimed to be: On the other hand, it has been demon-strated that the willingness of companies to do research ab-

road – also in other European countries – is predominant-ly a consequence of company characteristics and has al-most nothing to do with the basic conditions of the homecountry. Such companies often come from the high-techindustry, are used to being globally active and are an abo-ve-average size. In general, differences between domesticand foreign companies can be shown by means of factorslike size or industry better than by origin. “This is a veryimportant finding,” says Dachs. “Since, if it were not likethat, there would be a reason for politics to treat foreignfirms differently in order to protect one’s own location.”

PIONEER IN MEASURING AND REPORTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITALIn the field of measuring intellectual capital, AIT is a pio-neer in the context of innovation and research activities.Intellectual capital reports have proved themselves as acomprehensive instrument for taking stock of organisati-ons’ intellectual capital, which is for instance, divided inhuman capital, structural capital and relational capital. At the end of the last millennium, AIT was the first compa-ny in the German-speaking world to perform intellectualcapital report. The relevant know-how is also offered as aservice to other organisations. “However, it makes no sen-se, if a consultant does a intellectual capital for anothercompany,” says Karl Heinz Leitner. “We only have a sup-portive function here.” Amongst others, the Austrian Na-tional Bank, the German Aerospace Centre, Siemens Au-stria and some universities have implemented intellectualcapital reports.Leitner emphasises that intellectual capital reports are mo-re than a collection of indicators. “They help to make stra-tegies and goals operational and their achievements mea-surable and controllable. “Without indicators, it is simplynot possible. A substantial step in each customer project istherefore selecting relevant indicators. Which indicatorsare defined depends on the organisational form and stra-tegy. For instance, the number of scientific publicationsplays a larger role for universities than for a commerciallyoriented company, which typically puts more emphasis onon patents. In such a case, it would be advisable to conductan additional patent analysis, which the AIT experts havedone many a time for their customers.Intellectual capital reports should definitely not be donejust in order to document and communicate the perfor-mance of the past year. They are more the starting pointfor considerations on to what extent one is armed for thefuture or should invest in human relationships or structu-ral capital. “However, it is difficult to say to what extent wecan measure research and innovation activities.,” says Leit-ner. “One needs indicators in order to even be able to be-gin the discussion. The expertise consists in interpretingthem in a differentiated contexts.” ///

Bernhard Dachs:„Differences betweendomestic and foreigncompanies can beshown by means offactors like size or industry better thanby origin.”


TECHNOLOGIES WITH UTILITY FOR EVERYONE/// Societies and technology are closely related in many ways. In nume-

rous projects, AIT examines the collateral effects and sets the foundation

for decisions for research and innovation policies. ///

TECHNICAL INNOVATIONS never arisewithout a need, but always result fromsocietal conditions and mechanisms.Relevant factors are, for instance, howresearch and education are organisedin a country, how financing works orwhether there are markets for newtechnologies.The existing basic conditions can fa-vour developments, but also impedethem. On the other hand, technologi-cal developments have an effect on so-ciety and can change it. The relations-hip between technology and society istherefore a complex circular system ofcollateral dependencies. “It can be af-fected, but not in terms of intentionalsteering,” says AIT scientist SusanneGiesecke. “In this system, somethingunexpected can always happen, so out-put cannot be precisely predicted frominput.” Due to this, foresight plays animportant role besides classic studiesand analyses.A lot of this takes place at the Europe-an level. Customers are normally orga-nisations in the field of research and in-novation policies. AIT supports themin identifying and evaluating trend-setting decisions and gives them a sea-soned foundation to do it.A driver for new technologies ischanges in the societal basic conditi-ons, which from this perspective areseen as challenges for technological de-velopments. At the top of the list ofconsiderations of decision-makers, butof science, too, is the increasing age ofthe population. It can be expected thatit will lead to high costs in the future ifno measures are taken. The problem isnot as serious yet in Europe as in Japan.Nevertheless, there are national and re-gional differences that cannot be igno-

Susanne Giesecke: “The relationshipbetween technology and society is a complex circular system of collateral dependencies,”

Fotos: Krischa

nz & Zeiler, AIT Austrian Institu

te of Techn

olog

y, Fraun

hofer

red. The use of resources and dependency on a reliablesource of energy are further challenges. And the issue of in-tegrating migrants is becoming more pressing, too.

ESTIMATING CHANCES AND RISKSIn order to explore political scope of action, it is thereforenecessary to specify both chances and risks. AIT scientistsdid this in the EU project “FORESEC”, which was conclu-ded this year after two years’ work. “The task was to ascer-tain how similar or different the EU member states’ estima-tions of security issues are,” explains Giesecke. “Here, col-lective, not individual security is meant. Thus, threats thatwould affect a large number of people – like wars or natu-ral catastrophes.”Research took place by means of surveys, workshops andinterviews with experts from the individual countries.Among them were representatives from NGOs, ministriesand research institutions. In addition, a Delphi survey wasconducted amongst the 270 participants. The aim of theevaluation was to ascertain similarities and differences bet-ween individual countries, individual expert groups, oldand new member states or a north-south divide. It was de-monstrated that the differences are not as great as onemight have expected. Due to their history or geographic lo-cation, some countries have special focal points. For in-stance, terrorism is considered by Great Britain to be a mo-re serious threat than by other countries.Spain and Italy, on the other hand, emphasise the problemsof migration. “But, in general, there were not significantdeviations,” says Giesecke. “The only difference in the per-ception of problems was between countries that are NATOmembers and the rest.” NATO states generally emphasisedmore external threats, and non-NATO states more internalthreats. While the former also have a different estimationof Russia, the latter deal with conflicts in a more traditio-nal manner, often acting as mediators. The Austrian ex-perts named the failure of infrastructure, like street, ener-gy, IT and other supply networks, as the largest danger. Asthere are not enough reserves, such failures could in theworst case lead to the destabilisation of the political system.For the European Commission as the commissioning bo-dy of the analyses, the similarities ascertained are a tho-roughly positive result, since it makes designing measureseasier. The topics identified are now the basis for the for-mulation of new research projects.

TOPIC“TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT”A second major topic at AIT, in the context of the relations-hip of technology and society, is technology assessment.“Traditionally, technology assessment is retroactive,” saysGiesecke. “In contrast, more participative processes arebeing used today and users of and those concerned withtechnology are explicitly involved.” Elements of foresightcan be included. On the other hand, approaches to tech-nology assessment are often part of foresight projects. Inlight of rising life expectancies, the need for technologiesthat allow elderly and those in need of care as independenta life at as possible is growing.

The European Commission has coined the term “ambientassisted living” (AAL) and is conducting a joint program-me. In Austria, the Benefit Programme of the BMVIT andthe research support company FFG cover this topic. Wit-hin the scope of this programme, researchers from theAIT Foresight & Policy Development and Safety & Secu-rity Departments are working on the project “LiKeIT”.The aim is the development and evaluation of wirelesstechnologies to monitor health and lifestyle parameters.The idea is, for instance, that elderly people wear sensorson their body that regularly measure blood pressure andblood glucose levels. The sufficient intake of nourishmentand liquids should also be monitored, since elderly peopleoften forget them.This data is then to be automatically sent to a centre, for in-stance a doctor’s office or hospital. The technical develop-ment in the narrow sense of the term precedes the collecti-on of conditions and requirements, since it is very impor-tant in such a sensitive area of personal life that the marketneeds are not ignored. “People want technologies that theycan control – not ones that control them,” says Giesecke.For this reason, monitoring systems that use cameras to ob-serve potential falls by frail people in their apartments arehardly accepted by potential users. The project work in “Li-KeIT” therefore includes on-going adjustments and adap-tations between technicians on the one hand and expertsfrom the Foresight & Policy Development Department onthe other. Potential end users are also regularly included.


More participative processes are being used today and users of and those concerned with technology are explicitly involved.

Products adapted to usersSusanne Giesecke deals inparticular with the accep-tance of care-giving staffon behalf of the GermanMinistry for Research.On this project, she co-operates with the Institu-te for Social Research andSocial Sciences in Saar-brücken. “One mostlydecides on a job in thefield of care because ofwanting to work withpeople,” Giesecke knows,“and not primarily out ofinterest in technology,and therefore we needproducts that have a re-cognisable benefit forboth staff and patients.”It is not always sensible toimplement the technical-ly possible. If products donot enjoy market success,it is often due to thefunctionality failing tomeet the needs of theusers. It is therefore im-portant to include thewishes and experiences of

users in the planned product, from conception onwardsand during the development process.This is true both for the consumer market as well as forhigh-tech investment goods. AIT is examining implemen-tation scenarios and potential for quantum cryptographyon behalf of the European Telecommunications StandardsInstitute (ETSI). ETSI would like to derive requirements fora potential standardisation for quantum cryptographic da-ta transfer. “Basic research into the technology is, in prin-ciple, finished,” says Giesecke. “But there are still manytechnical questions to be answered.” For instance, thetransfer distance is still limited to a few hundred kilome-tres. Users with a need for high security – above all banks,the military or administrative organisations – also com-plain that the few currently available machines are toocomplex to be integrated into current security systems. AIT is also developing user scenarios that are discussed ininteractive workshops by global experts and potentialusers. Including those concerned does not just play a roleon the object level of the relationship between society andtechnological development, but also on the meta level ofscientific investigations. “Research and development haveto clarify in advance the goals and desired function of thecustomer in the process,” says Giesecke. It also needs to becommunicated to the experts and interest groups that a po-litical interest on the part of the customer is on hand. “It isonly then possible to work out realistic recommendationsthat are actually implemented.” ///


/// ARMIN GRUNWALD, HEAD OFTHE INSTITUTE FOR TECHNO-LOGY ASSESSMENT ANDSYSTEMS ANALYSIS IN KARLS-RUHE, ON THE EXPERTISE OFTHE FORESIGHT & POLICYDEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT.

Where do you see a special contributionby AIT’s Foresight & Policy DevelopmentDepartment in the discussion on science

and new technologies? Where should the contribution be in the future?In modern societies, it is becoming more and more important to remain atpar with motivated groups and persons from various fields of societyregarding the further development of sciences and technical progress. Itis not just about explaining science and technology to the population orstriving for acceptance, but about an open dialogue on the commonaspects of the organisation of the future society – which will surely be notless, but probably more characterised by science and technology thantoday. In this dialogue, it is important to involve the knowhow of theDepartment regarding foresight and the design of political processes.Dialogue in society is currently being conducted strongly on key technolo-gies, like nanotechnology and synthetic biology. I expect that the “old”infrastructure technologies will be the topic of debates more often:energy, transport, water. It is a case of the transformation of entire infra-structures towards sustainable development – a great challenge that willnot be conquered without conflicts, so dialogue is necessary.

Which work by the Department over the last years was especially impor-tant in your opinion? What was the effect?It is difficult to highlight individual contributions. I will try, by naming thesystem-theoretical and system-analytical papers on knowledge networksand knowledge audits, which have met with wide distribution. Further-more, I would like to point out the research on sustainable research andtechnology policies, which – as far as I can see – is being very well recei-ved.

Which role does the Department fulfil at the international level?The Department is – as far as I can tell – very actively involved at Europeanlevel, participates in a series of European research projects and takes partin the further development of the European research and technology poli-cies.

In which fields would you like to work with the Department?On the one hand, it would be in the field of research and technology poli-cies. One could also name the innovation policies and the role of scienti-fic consultation in this field. On the other hand, it is the orientation ofthese political fields on the mission statement of sustainable develop-ment, which is a great challenge and where the Department is very com-petent. ///

WITH SUCH EMOTIONAL ISSUES such as global climatechange, many sceptics arise and proclaim it to be a mythwith questionable arguments. Experts have little under-standing for that. “The climate is changing; there is nodoubt,” says Wolfgang Loibl, Deputy Head of the Regional& Infrastructure Policy Business Unit. “This is demonstra-ted by measurements as well as by comparative simulati-ons.” The climate researchers at AIT therefore deal withtwo issues: What regional effects does climate change haveand what measures can consequences be mitigated? Thegeographic focus is always on Austria, and the Alpine area.Regional climate models are based on global climate mo-dels (GCM). GCMs continuously simulate the atmosphe-re processes in intervals of a few minutes for a grid cell ra-ster spanned over the globe. Since millions of simulationsteps require long processing times for each cell, even usinga super computer, the spatial resolution of the results, thedistance between the grid cells, remains coarse. The GCMsfrequently used in Europe (ECHAM5 of the German MaxPlanck Institute for Meteorology, HadCM3 of the BritishHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) at bestprovide results for a matrix with a cell distance of 100 km.The digital elevation model used is correspondingly coar-se. A north-south section across the Alps shows three cellsthat hardly exceed 2000 m a.s.

COMPLETE OBSERVATIONTo estimate the effects of climate change in the Alps at re-gional to local scale, AIT researchers model a section of theglobe in a finer raster cell resolution, using regional clima-te models (RCM). The current RCM applied by the AIT,COSMO CLM, reflects the processes in the atmospherewith similar equation systems such as GCMs, but with mo-re spatio-temporal precision: it computes the atmosphericconditions and their effects near the ground (temperature,sun radiation, cloudiness, rain, snow, wind, etc.) in 80-se-cond intervals for a 10-kilometre grid. The GCM simula-tions are transferred every six hours as input to the regio-nal model, and the RCM results are stored in hourly in-crements. The current climate simulations carried out wit-hin the “reclip:century” project sponsored by the AustrianClimate and Energy Funds. AIT’s partners are the CentralInstitute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), theInstitute for Meteorology of the University of Natural Re-sources and Life Sciences (BOKU) and the Wegener Cen-

tre for Climate and Global Change at the University ofGraz.Climate simulations for 100 years applying alternativegreenhouse gas scenarios require several months of com-puting time. But afterwards, various further studies can becarried out making use of the results. A newly developedAIT application is the software tool “Climate Twins”. Byclicking on a region in an interactive map, those areas canbe identified where today’s climate is similar to a future cli-mate of the selected region at a certain coming decade.Climate twin’s results show that the Viennese climate in 80years will be closer to that of the central Balkan Region.The slow change of Vienna’s climate until 2100 can be ob-served by following the “Climate Twins cloud” on the in-teractive map – which drifts from Vienna towards the sout-heast. “Climate Twins also has an educational function,”says Loibl, “it shows that one does not necessarily has to fe-ar climatic change, but that local adaptation measures areimportant.” However, different regions are affected differ-ently and react with different sensitivity.

“The frequency and severity of extreme events, such as tor-rential rain and flooding, can vary greatly at the local level,”says Loibl. “in hot periods it is similar. It is likely that inthe future the East will be more affected by hot periods,while the West will suffer from heavy rainfall.“ Disadvan-tages are accompanied by advantages, though: more inten-sive heat waves will impact agriculture and forestry more,while wineries will benefit from the general rise in tempe-rature and may move to new regions.

TRACING CLIMATE CHANGE/// hardly any expert doubts about climate change today. Researchers at AIT simulate

regional climate scenarios for the Alpine area –to explore small-scale implications

for different regions and derive measures in order to mitigate impact on population,

economy and infrastructure. ///


Wolfgang Loibl: “The “ClimateTwins” tool shows that one does not necessarily has to fear climatechanges, but local adaptation measures are important to copewith the effects.”

IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATE RESEARCH RISESA thorough assessment of climate-related effects allows re-gional governments and communities to respond in timeto prevent or reduce damages. Thinking about future stra-tegies is particularly useful for regions whose main sourceof income is winter tourism. Michael Billing, a student atthe Vienna University of Economics, examined the “Effectsof Climate Change on Winter Tourism in the Austria Alps”in his diploma thesis. The result is sobering and shockingat the same time. “The results show that by 2050, withoutalternative winter recreation offers, a decline in winter oc-cupancy of 20 to 30 percent can be expected for wintersport resorts between 1,200 and 1,600 m average altitude ;even more in lower elevated areas,” says Wolfgang Loibl.Nevertheless, the result needs to be explored in detail. Thisconcerns in particular ski areas up to 1,600 m a.s.. “Busi-ness could run even better for a couple of decades if de-mand remains stable, since there will be less competitionfurther down. At lower altitudes, new “cool mountains”summer offers could stimulate demand,” says Loibl. Thisacademic thesis is a good example of the diploma / masterthesis and dissertation programme IEV (Innovation Eco-nomics Vienna), conducted by AIT in co-operation withthe Institute for Economic Geography and Geoinformaticsat the Vienna University of Economics .Further projects at the AIT deal with adaptation to clima-te change (especially economic- and infrastructure-rela-ted). In the EU project SUDPlan, the city of Linz serves ascase study how the wastewater system can be better prepa-red for climate change effects. “A serious, largely ignoredproblem arises,” explains Loibl. “Heavy rain events will be-come more intense and might overload the frequently toosmall dimensions of municipal wastewater networks. Car-rying out simulations of heavy precipitation, wastewaternetwork loads can be tested and technical countermeasu-res can be drafted. A special challenge for Loibl is the participation in the lar-ge-scale project “Seestadt Aspern”, one of the largest urbandevelopment projects in the history of Vienna. In the co-ming two decades, Aspern, in the Northeast of Vienna, willbecome a 240-hectare New Town for 20,000 residents and25,000 jobs, with strong emphasis on energy efficiency andecology.“AIT provides climate simulation results for today and a fu-ture reference climate in 2050 as background for further si-mulations, providing the basis for energy-efficient and cli-mate-sensitive building plans,” reports Loibl. To do this, di-gital models of the Aspern development in 5-metre and 7-metre resolution describing block layout and open spacecharacteristics (building heights, alignment, pavementproperties, soil type and moisture, vegetation, trees, water)were developed for the city climate simulations. “We simu-late the micro-climate for building and landscaping alter-natives to provide hourly data on radiation, temperature,

humidity and wind, amongst others, to as input for furtherbuilding performance simulations for heating and coolingto explore alternative building equipment and façades.” Inaddition, AIT researchers examine wind conditions, urbanheat island effects as well as ventilation corridors to carryout an assessment of the climate sensitivity of the urban de-sign concept. The project results will be fed directly into thetenders for individual building lots.While the consequences of climate change show regionaleffects, climate protection – the reduction of greenhousegas emissions – is a global task. “Single local climate pro-tection measures will not induce any noticeable global ef-fect,” says AIT researcher Wilfried Winiwarter. “Only amultitude of local efforts can bring a distinct change in thetrend of greenhouse gas concentrations.” AIT providesanalyses and scenarios of future emissions developments as

decision-basis for national climate protection policies andfor preparing international accords. The amount of green-house gases emitted is calculated by emission factors underconsideration of the technologies used. Simulated reduc-tion measures allow estimating the savings effects and thecorresponding costs. In addition to national results, localinventories for Vienna, Upper Austria and Styria have beencarried out applying the AIT models, and emission inven-tories able to develop alternative emission scenarios wereimplemented.Simple solutions can be expected for climate protectiononly rarely. The barriers on the road to a greenhouse gasfree society are manifold. Not every household can affordto invest in wall insulation, not every entrepreneur canwaive driving a car or flying to business meetings. “We candescribe the technical possibilities for climate protectionwith rather high certainty,” says Winiwarter, “but the imple-mentation in society may encounter barriers. ” Climateprotection should be negotiated as part of the sensible useof natural resources within the framework of global deve-lopment. The research work by AIT could also make a con-tribution here. ///


Wilfried Winiwarter. “Climate protectionmeasures set by countries individuallywill not induce any noticeable globaleffect. Only a multitude of such localefforts applied together can bring abouta distinct change in the trend of green-house gas concentrations.”


IN LIGHT OF THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES – from climatechange and resource scarcity to demographic and economicdevelopment – infrastructure policy has large tasks to tackle,which requires future-oriented strategies and technologies.The availability of infrastructure, in particular for mobility,energy and health, is a main indicator of people’s living stan-dard and the economic performance of a state and is there-fore also a main area of state financial precautions. “Regar-ding sustainability, the question is posed. Which infrastruc-ture can fulfil the needs of society in the long run and makethe sustainable development of regions possible,” explainsMarkus Knoflacher, Deputy Head of AIT’s Regional & Infra-

structure Business Unit. What makes estimating future de-velopments and their simulations difficult “is the fact that weare dealing with long time periods. Processes with differenttime horizons – from thirty to fifty years – have to be co-or-dinated with each other.”

SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC PROCESSES AND SPATIAL DEVELOPMENTRegional development strategies with their planned interven-tions – for instance by means of traffic infrastructure – havea substantial influence on the spatial development and livingconditions in a region. Due to high levels of investment and

SYSTEMATIC CONNECTION OF RTIAND INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY/// For sustainable regional development and infrastructure, innovative

strategies and technologies are necessary. To do this, the necessary

capacities of innovation systems have to be stimulated, motivated and

systematically steered. ///

Markus Knoflacher: “It is important to pose the rightquestions. That is the onlyway for us to find the answersthat lead us to our goal.”

Photos: Krischanz & Zeiler, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, BMVIT

long investment horizons, potential technological changes orchanges in the essential basic conditions have to be thoughtof early and considered in the strategies.“When working out development scenarios, it needs to beconsidered based on the given information and documenta-tion which stakeholders can be brought together in whichform. It is just as important which questions relevant to de-cisions are posed as answering them to achieve the desired re-sults,” is how Knoflacher describes the complex context of fo-resight and strategy processes in the field of infrastructure.The spectrum of questions, for instance for traffic infrastruc-ture projects, ranges from simulations of expected demandand mobility needs in the region to spatial effects – for instan-ce due to settlement and network structures – up to the que-stion of which system and technologies make it possible to of-fer a reasonable mobility service. Questions regarding the useof land, emissions and ecological aspects need to be taken in-to consideration for the problem-oriented estimation oftechnical consequencesThe simulation of traffic processes and the expected spatialdevelopment as well as the modelling and evaluation of theeffects of these developments, for which intelligent agent mo-dels are applied, also support mediation processes if the rea-lisation of large-scale projects experiences resistance fromthe population concerned. The effects to be expected can beverified together with involved stakeholders, by means of par-ticipative models. Which also prevent “the danger of perspec-tive-based bias”, highlights Knoflacher. “Dealing with thechallenges of the future is an especially touchy point. In oursociety, there is the expectation that there is always a solutionwith a guarantee. Thus, conscientiously dealing with thequestion of risk is important.”

LAND-USE INFORMATION SYSTEM AUSTRIARegions are continuously changing. Information on thestructure and dynamics of the change in land use is therefo-re an important foundation in the evaluation of the currentand the estimation of the future regional development. AITheads the scientific-technical committee, “Land-Use Infor-mation System Austria” (LiSA), where a new Austrian data-base on land occupancy and use is to be created. Local landuse is recorded using remote sensor methods. The aim of theproject is to collect improved spatial and thematic informa-tion from aerial and satellite data for the entire area of Austriain a homogenisable, quality-controlled and updateable data-base. In the future, that should provide information on thestatus quo and the changes of the Austrian landscape in re-gular intervals as the basis for political decisions and a moreeffective administration of land use. “Using this database, wehave an important instrument to co-ordinate spatial andtemporal processes regarding infrastructure planning,” AITexpert Klaus Steinnocher underlines the utility of LiSA.


/// BMVIT SECRETARY GENERAL,HERBERT KASSER, ON THEMEASURES FOR A MODERNINFRASTRUCTURE.

Which areas where the BMVIT is responsible could produce advantagesfor modern infrastructure from the connection between infrastructure andRTI policy?Infrastructure networks are the veins of amodern society. They are the prerequi-site quality of life quality and wealth deve-

lopment and are therefore a decisive business location factor. The BMVITis responsible for transport and telecommunications networks and it is itstask to ensure the sustainability of these networks. Questions regardingthe supply security for the population as well as the economy and questi-ons regarding ecological compatibility have priority. A combination ofinfrastructure and RTI policy can decisively help to address the societalrequirements for these networks in time. Only modern and innovateinfrastructures can ensure that societal challenges in connection withthese networks, for instance the increasing age in society, resource scar-city, climate change and a general increase in traffic, are overcome. Inparticular, the BMVIT has the chance to drive this modernisation in a tar-get-oriented way, since both political fields, infrastructure policy as wellas research and innovation policy, are anchored in the Ministry. We wantto co-ordinate and connect both political fields in order to be able to pro-vide the necessary modernisation of infrastructure technologies, so ourtransport and telecommunications routes do not just remain safe, but alsoto sustainably meet the needs of people and our economy.

What role do the principles of sustainability play for modern infrastructure?These principles are a focus of ours. Infrastructure networks are closelyconnected to all three fields of sustainability: a liveable society, a healthyfuture environment and, last but not least, a competitive and resource-saving economic location. Modern infrastructure, meaning infrastructurethat integrates new and innovative solutions and technologies, for instanceelectric vehicles, low-emission and low-noise methods of transport, newand customer-friendly services or steering systems for a better traffic flow,etc., are of utter importance for the future to expand and improve all threefields accordingly.

Do you see a need for scientific expertise in the field of “sustainable innovation-oriented infrastructure policy”?Definitely! The systematic combination of RTI and infrastructure policy in itsplanned form is a new challenge for us at the MBVIT. Internally, we can relyon many years of expertise in the two political areas. But we do not havesufficient knowhow in how to combine these political areas purposefully – interms of a sustainable infrastructure development – and make them evenmore effectively useable for society and the economy. To do this, we need,on the one hand, a well though out concept, meaning a strategic plan andtheoretic foundation to implement this idea. On the other hand, we alsoneed scientific experts to answer the practical questions regarding the co-operation of the stakeholders involved and the use of existing as well as thecreation of new political instruments. Such economic expertise is thereforevery helpful to us. We therefore clearly support research projects in theseareas, for instance those that already take place at AIT. ///


CHANGE IN LAND USE IN URBAN REGIONSThe change in land use in the (peri-urban) suburbs of Euro-pean cities, its effects and its steering possibilities are the fo-cus of the EU project PLUREL (Peri-Urban Land Use Relati-onships – Strategies and Sustainability Assessment Tools forUrban-Rural Linkages), where the scientists at AIT contribu-ted their expertise and which runs until mid 2011. Urban re-gions are in a conflict between growing and shrinking due totheir various economic and demographic developments.In general, new settlement and business areas “in the opencountryside” mean that more natural and semi-natural are-as are being covered, which, above all, has negative effects onthe neighbouring ecosystems in the urban and peri-urban re-gion, but also on the life quality of residents. The projectworks out regional scenarios for future changes in land use inEuropean city regions based on global, economic and demo-graphic development trends, assesses them regarding theirecological, social and economic sustainability using modelsand finally creates planning governance concepts for sustai-nable development of the peri-urban areas.

STIMULATING INNOVATIONS SYSTEMATICALLYTraffic networks, energy supply, information and telecom-munications as well as water and sewage networks in additi-on to public building infrastructure are the veins of our mo-dern society and basic requirements for all human, especial-ly economic, activities. For these infrastructure systems tomeet future requirements – for instance in the case of resour-ce and energy consumption regarding damage to the envi-

ronment, safety, logistics or equipment, their expansion andmodernisation of innovative, future developments and theco-ordinated integration of research and technology deve-lopment are necessary.“Private investments in a sustainable modernisation are notsufficient from an economic and socio-political perspective.The modernisation also has to be born to a great extent by thestate. Capacities for infrastructure modernisation need to bestimulated, motivated and systematically steered by RTI po-licy,” is how Wolfram Rhomberg, Head of the project “Re-search and Technology for an Innovation-Oriented Infra-structure Policy at the BMVIT”, justifies the necessity of apurposeful connection between RTI policy and infrastructu-re policy. “The market alone is not sufficient to bring aboutand implement the necessary infrastructure-relevant innova-

tions. Infrastructure providers normally buy existing techno-logies from established market players that, if not moderni-sed and further developed, no longer optimally fulfil their so-cio-political and economic functions. It is therefore necessa-ry to bring researchers and R&D service providers, suppliersand administrative bodies together in co-operative projectsto work on questions regarding changing technological, legis-lative and qualitative requirements and conduct pilot pro-jects. By doing so, systematic innovations and new develop-ments are stimulated and integrated.” Such an “innovation-oriented infrastructure policy” – as a complement to and inco-ordination with instruments of current infrastructure po-licy – means the strategic integration of technology- and in-novation-political agendas as well as targeted public invest-ments in infrastructure-relevant research and technology de-velopment. As Rhomberg emphasises, “synergies for societaldemand for employment, ecologization and sustainability aswell as revitalisation and upward trends” arise from this. Thatis how we design the future.”

FREIGHT VISION AUSTRIAThe project “Freight Vision Austria”, which runs until April2011 and is connected to the EU project “Freight VisionEurope – Vision and Action Plans for European FreightTransport until 2050”, sets new impulses for the Europeanand Austrian technology and innovation policy. The frame-work of the European foresight project is a long-term visionfor sustainable goods transport in Europe against the back-ground of new challenges, like the reduction of greenhouse

gases by 80 percent by 2050 and depen-dency on fossil fuels. Its aim is to workrecommendations for European trafficand infrastructure policy.“On the future of goods transport andlogistics in Austria, we lead a similarlystructured dialogue with scenarios for2020, 2035 and 2050, the results of whichshould contribute to a long-term visionand orientation of Austrian technology,innovation and infrastructure policy,”explains the Project Head, Claus Seibt.“It is not just about the sustainable mo-dernisation of goods transport on the

main European traffic routes through Austria, but also aboutthe sustainable modernisation of goods transport in and bet-ween the metropolitan areas in Austria, e.g. distributiontransport, or construction and disposal transport.Experts and stakeholders often tend to have excessively highexpectations for the possibilities of technological modernisa-tion or they are pessimistic regarding the possibilities of su-stainable modernisation in the years to come. It is our taskto demand healthy judgement and common sense from theexperts and stakeholders involved in the foresight process.After all, the state should be well consulted in times of tightbudgets not to follow every exaggerated technological expec-tation imprudently. It is necessary to achieve a joint under-standing amongst all stakeholders and a vision for practicaland cost-efficient solutions in the future.” ///

Wolfram Rhomberg: “Capacities forinfrastructure modernisation need to be stimulated, motivated andsystematically steered by RTI policy.”


PERCEIVING WHEN SOMETHING NEW ARISES/// Using the software “BibTechMon”, AIT has a powerful tool at its

disposal to create and visualise research and technology maps.

That allows scientific findings to be identified early, from which lucrative

technologies can arise. ///

MANY SUCCESSFUL THEORIES AND PRODUCTS originallycome from science, traditionally from physics, mechanicalengineering or electrical engineering. However, recentlymore often from mathematics, nanotechnologies or biolo-gy. The trend towards multi-disciplinarity favours thecreation of so-called emerging technologies. Emergence iswhen something entirely new, often unexpected, arisesfrom the combination of various scientific disciplines. Inother words: the entire sum is equal to more than the sumof its parts. An example is biosensors, which are a combi-nation of biological and electronic systems. They make itpossible to measure signals that neither the biological northe electronic system could detect by itself.Due to their nature, it is in the interest of companies to re-cognize the first signs of new technologies early, whetheremerging or classic. “When it is possible to recognise suchdevelopments before the competition, one has a clear com-petitive advantage,” says Edgar Schiebel, Head of the Tech-nology Management Business Unit. “It is therefore impor-tant to observe developments within research exactly.”Monitoring scientific activities is one of AIT’s strengthsand is used by firms as well as support or political institu-tions. The software BibTechMon developed by Schiebel isone of the reasons for that. The tool uses the fact that scien-tific findings are documented in a clearly structured formand are publicly accessible – by means of publications intechnical journals. BibTechMon accesses the electronic ar-ticle database, extracts the data and applies comprehensiveanalytical functions to them.An example: If one is interested in scientific works thatcould be relevant for the further development of electro-mobility, one enters a search word like “battery”. The resultthe user receives is thousands of articles that contain the se-arch word. “The program can now check for every authorwith whom he or she has produced joint publications,” saysSchiebel. “The results are network relationships that are re-presented as graphic maps with nodes and edges.” This vi-sual illustration makes it easier to recognise connectionsquickly. For instance, scientists with a high number of pu-blications and good networking are positioned at the cen-tre of the map, which reflects their importance within thescientific community. Closed research clusters are also cle-

Edgar Schiebel: “Whenit is possible to recogni-se such developmentsbefore the competition,one has a clear competi-tive advantage.”

Photos: Krischanz & Zeiler, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, MAGNA


arly visible. Groups of researchers can be displayed, depen-ding on how often their works are cited. “A high rate of ci-tation can be an indication of a groundbreaking discovery,”says Schiebel.

REVOLUTIONARY SEARCH ALGORITHMSAnalyses are not only applicable to people, but also to termsthemselves. “KO” word analyses show articles in which se-veral of the search words appear. The position on the mapgives valuable information here, too. If the terms “battery”,“electrode” and “lithium ferrous phosphate” often occurtogether, it is a good indicator of the relevance of this ma-terial class in energy storage. The functional extent of Bib-TechMon also makes it possible to observe temporalchanges and therefore identify trends.The comprehensive results of such network analyses are ofinterest to numerous customers. For the Austrian Ministryof Infrastructure, AIT examined how high the potential ofbionics is for transport technology. “By means of this in-formation, the Ministry receives an important decision-making foundation for working out potential support pro-grammes,” says Schiebel. An ideal application for BibTech-Mon was also offered by the project “PROMTECH” (Iden-tification and Assessment of Promising EmergingTechnological Fields in Europe), which AIT conductedwith the Frauenhofer Institute for Systems and InnovationResearch (ISI) and the French Institut de l’InformationScientifique et Technique du Centre National de la Recher-che Scientifique.Within the scope of this project, ten promising future tech-nologies as well as leading researchers in this field wereidentified. The Pascal Database was the source of informa-tion, with around 17 million entries is not only compre-hensive, but also has excellent key words for its articles.

ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATIONIn addition to the creation and assessment of networks, fo-resight and road mapping projects are becoming more andmore important. “If one would like to find out in which di-rection developments are moving, quantitative methodsoften do not suffice,” explains Schiebel. “One also has tofind out what is going on in people’s heads and what theydo with it.” That happens in expert workshops in which theopinions of experts can be used as additional sources of in-formation. On the quest for emerging technologies, AIT isalso a partner of the K2 centre XTribology, which deals withthe cross-discipline topic of friction. Traditionally a do-main of mechanical engineering, tribology is today a com-bination of various technical disciplines, for instance nanosciences, surface analytics or thin-film technology. Com-puter simulation is also playing more and more of an im-portant role. “We support the centre in its strategic orien-tation, by scanning scientific papers from round the worldfor their potential relevance for tibology,” says Schiebel.“Scientists often cannot estimate for which applicationstheir work could of interest – we can.” ///

/// PETER EGGER, RESPONSI-BLE AT MAGMA FOR INNOVA-TION AND TECHNOLOGY, ONKNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT INTHE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS

How was the project “K_net”, on whichyour company worked with the groupcentred round Josef Fröhlich, able tosupport your work?For the partners and therefore also forMagma, the competence network “Vehi-cle Propulsion Concepts of the Future”

within the scope of the competence centre project K_ind /K_net was oneof the essential building blocks for the purposeful and extremely success-ful further development of vehicle propulsions. Moving towards hybridis-ation, electro propulsion with and without a range extender, as well asbattery development and solutions in the electrification of the power train.

What role did the Department play in the project K_net?Evaluation of technology strategies and knowledge management, as wellas on-going technological monitoring, were the foundation for all develop-ment activities for the competence network and the scientific and indu-strial partners. The solutions that were worked out during the partner’son-going development work were complemented by additional analyses(technological trends, patents, literature) using the monitoring system.

To what extent is the co-operation with a research institution like AIT important for the strategy of your company – keyword “technologyintelligence”?The spectrum of technology development is getting broader and broader.In a special case, the automobile industry will be faced with immensechallenges over the next years / decades (resource scarcity, environment,demoscopic development, urbanisation, legislative regulations). Largegroups are not able – or only partially – to solve these problems alone, eit-her. That means that efficient R&D networks are one of the essential pre-requisites for overcoming existing questions and competent researchinstitutions like AIT play a very important role.

In what form is knowledge management generally integrated at Magma?How do employees access the knowledge capital at the company?One the one hand, Magma has to have an extremely broad foundation ofknowledge due to its product portfolio. On the other hand, the organisa-tional structure is mostly decentralised regarding operations. This leadsto knowledge management also being the responsibility of the respectivegroup, company or location and the instruments and activities within thescope of knowledge management being different. Cross-group knowledgemanagement is continuously optimised and adapted to conditions by thecentral department Innovation & Technology. ///


ORGANISING SELF-ORGANISATION .../// The success of organisations depends strongly on how adequately they

react to changing needs and can change themselves. Using seasoned

methods, AIT supports its customers in developing individual forms of

(complexity) steering. ///

IT IS A CHARACTERISTIC OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS that theydo not function according to the causal principles of a me-chanical input-output model. This also concerns companies,like clusters, networks or entire firms. Steering such organi-sations is therefore very difficult. AIT offers tailor-made sup-port for conceptualising and implementing effective innova-tion processes, on the basis of system theory as well as re-search results. To do this, various models (Open Innovation,Living LAB, etc.), interventions and methods are applied.The specific access is the complementary innovation consul-tation, which was developed by Doris Wilhelmer, an AITscientist. The idea is to combine expertise regarding contentas well as the behaviour and interventions of organisationaldevelopment to form an efficient consultation alliance. “Bothapproaches are extremely important, but each is limited in itsscope,” says Wilhelmer. “Only their interaction makes com-pletely new and economically lucrative positions on the mar-ket possible for organisations.”

DEVELOPED DECISION-MAKING FOUNDATIONSExperts from various technological fields work at AIT facili-tating the task of complementary innovation consultation. Inmost cases, this permits a relationship of trust from the verybeginning, which is an important prerequisite to be able touse turbulences in the innovation project successfully to be-nefit the commissioning organisation.“Moreover, it is decisive for success to illustrate the comple-xity of the organisation in its environment when setting upthe “consulting group of technical and process experts””, saysWilhelmer. It is also important that all concerned functionsof the company are represented within the project group ofthe organisation and the relevant management levels are in-volved in the decision-making process. The logic of the pro-cess itself follows in a phase model: Firstly, the project teamformulates the status quo and clarifies for itself where thecompany stands exactly and where current need for action isgiven.It is also recorded which products / services are given, howsuccessful they are, what infrastructure it is based on andwhere the company is currently concentrating on its corecompetencies (knowhow). This is followed by a mental jour-ney by the project group into an optimal, future world: Thedesired idea of a better future serves as the joint vision for ori-

entating the further positive development of the company.Both “case for action” and “vision” are then the decision-ma-king foundation for top management to limit the develop-ment of product and service innovations within a strategicframe of action. In the case of a company in Salzburg, thiscreative process of idea generation took place in the setting ofa large group where both internal as well as external impor-tant partners, customers and suppliers were invited. Withina day, round 140 ideas were collected. These were then con-centrated and assessed according to specific criteria, whichled to nine specific business models that are already beingsold on the market.Weaknesses in innovation management can often be tracedback to a lack of communication and collateral trust. The keytopic of innovation is also often positioned unfavourably inthe organisational chart, for instance in research or marke-ting. This leads to the innovation department often beingconsidered a competitor by other departments. Mistrust ari-ses all the more when innovation departments (or stafffunctions) have a budget at their disposal that they (do not)allot to other departments. Current models of innovationmanagement therefore attempt to consciously place innova-tion processes outside of the strict line-and-staff organisati-on. To do this, communications architectures are created inwhich the people relevant for idea development and imple-

Doris Wilhelmer: “The idea is to combi-ne expertise regardingcontent as well as the

behaviour and interven-tions of the organisatio-

nal development toform an efficient consul-

tation alliance.”

Photos: AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Swarovski


mentation inside or outside of the organisation are broughttogether for co-operation (Open Innovation, Living LAB).The network structures that arise connect various experts, re-gions and hierarchies.

ELIMINATING COMMUNICATIONS DEFICITSThis approach has also proved itself during the project IN-NOnetworks, which is conducted by the Swarovski Groupand AIT. The starting point was the recognition by relevantSwarovski decision-makers that the individual business unitsof the Group considered each other competitors regardingthe resources of the core process “product development andproduction”. A communications deficit between the businessunits and shrinking economic success on the market were theresults. A first step towards improvement was the integrati-on of an innovation manager in each of the four businessunits. They then voluntarily formed an “INNO steeringgroup”, where they exchanged information regularly. “Theidea behind this setting is that each business unit can only besuccessful if it knows what the others are doing,” says Wilhel-mer. After determining the framework strategy, innovationconcepts were then defined. Furthermore, portfolio manage-ment was introduced, which made it possible for the first ti-me to make all innovation-related products in the Group vi-sible and therefore steerable. Parallel to that, large groupevents with selected staff, customers and suppliers of Swa-rovski are regularly organised and moderated by AIT. Speci-fic topics are discussed and new ideas to develop product andservice innovations are developed.Thanks to these measures, Swarovski not only made it suc-cessfully through the economic crisis, but currently has highlymodern and effective innovation management. As the archi-tecture comprised of the steering group and the customernetwork is on a voluntary basis, it is very fragile and couldbreak at any moment. The potential of development and ne-gotiations based on trust and the practicability of the selec-ted approaches shows that it does not happen, though.

INNOVATION MANAGEMENT FOR SMESSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – generallyknown in many fields as the trendsetters for technologicalprogress – also use the expertise of the Department, since therisks connected to cutting-edge research are normally diffi-cult to calculate and bear because of their size.“Austrian Corporate Foresight” starts at this need for orien-tation of SMEs: It relies on good practice methods and resultsof participative, European, national and sector foresight pro-cesses and makes them available to domestic SMEs.The new thing about this model is the tailor-making of givengood practice foresight models, contents and benchmarks inline with the needs and resources of Austrian SME clusters.The goal is to make a highly efficient, practical and economi-cally permissive foresight action model for these sectors. By

means of intensive co-operation with SME clusters and prac-tice-oriented research institutions, the service innovationACFS is consistently oriented on the utility of SMEs. They aresupported in further strengthening their main role as inno-vators in Austria.“It does not matter whether it is a large or small company –innovation management must never become routine,” ex-plains Wilhelmer. “It needs to be questioned constantly andorientated on the current needs of the organisation.” ///

/// HANNES ERLER, HEAD OFTHE ILAB „INNOVATIONS UNDIDEA MANAGEMENT“ AT SWA-ROVSKI, ON THE ADVANTAGESOF CONSISTENT INNOVATIONMANAGEMENT.

In what form have you used the expertise of the AIT Foresight & PolicyDepartment?In the field of innovation management,we have introduced steering elements foran overall innovation network. AIT provi-

ded the external perspective as well as current research results, whichmade the establishment possible.

Where were the cruxes in the innovation process at Swarovski originally?The integration of the innovation culture on a new level of co-operation,together with synergies across the business units.

How do you ensure that all staff in your four business units is up-to-dateregarding current collateral development?This takes place through regularly held network meetings, a prominentrepresentation of the current issues on our Intranet and periodic meetingsof the steering group of the network.

In your opinion, what are the substantial benefits of consistent innovationmanagement?I would like to call it “sustainable” innovation management. This ensuresthat the ideas of staff find the correct contact people, the current challen-ges and problems of customers are addressed and enough good, creativesolutions are given for customers. Moreover, supportive portfoliomanagement allows for the efficient bundling of resources.

Which external networks do you use to develop ideas for your products?We use expert networks as well as the numerous staff contacts to univer-sities, research institutions and new social media possibilities. ///


FUTURE EXPERTS FOR INNOVATION ECONOMICS/// By means of the joint programme Innovation Economics Vienna, AIT and

the University of Economics of Vienna want to train altogether 50 graduates

and 15 doctoral candidates over the next few years. ///

THANKS TO THE AUSTRIAN ECONOMIST JOSEPH SCHUM-PETER, innovation has become a topic of economic sci-ences. Whereas neoclassic economics deals more with thequestion of allocation of capital, Schumpeter dedicatedhimself as the first scientist worldwide to the description ofthe essence and significance of business innovation.In his book “The Theory of Economic Development” pu-blished in 1911, he deals with the causes for economicchange and interprets the dominance of new combinations– innovations – as the germ for the evolution and growthof an economy. Innovations are the fundamental driving force that puts thecapitalist machine in motion and keeps it going. A prere-quisite for innovation is the entrepreneur, the creative en-trepreneur, “who is capable of carefully and sensitively re-cognising things that are generally not considered impor-tant, coming to conclusions and generating innovations,”comments Josef Fröhlich, Head of the Foresight & Policy

Development Department at the Austrian Institute ofTechnology. By doing so, pioneer entrepreneurs achieve anadvantage vis-à-vis their competition. If their inventionsare successful, competitors will try to share in the innova-tion benefits by means of imitation.Innovation and imitation as constant motional processestherefore characterise the evolutionary process of econo-mic development. In the 1950s, Schumpeter, who emigra-ted to the USA during the Second World War, became ac-quainted with the centre of the American automotive in-dustry in Detroit and saw for the first time large researchdepartments where up to 300 employees did research anddevelopment. Under this impression, he revised his opini-on that only entrepreneurs are the source of innovations.In one of his most famous articles in the 1950s, he formu-lated that research departments would automate technicalprogress. Hence, that systematic considerations and wor-king out ideas are the catalyst for innovations.

15 doctoral candidates and 50 graduates within the next five years,starting with 2009, will be trained in co-operation between AIT and the University of Economics of Vienna.

Photos: Krischanz & Zeiler, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, University of Economics of Vienna


FIVE GENERATIONS OF INNOVATION MODELS“In the meantime, we know that there have been five gene-rations of innovation models since Schumpeter’s time inthe 1950s – from technology push, where basic researchand technical development are the prerequisites for inno-vation, to market demand, according to which the marketdemand leads to new services and products, to the fifth mo-del of system integration: Here, one starts with the stake-holders and observes the exchange of knowledge betweenvarious players within a company, but also with other play-ers as a main element of innovation,” is how Fröhlich out-lines the history of innovation research. “This develop-ment to examine innovations from a scientific perspectiveis not anchored in traditional economics, but has it originin evolutionary economics.This segment is poorly represented regarding universitiesin Austria at the meso and macro level, which is stronglypolitically oriented. With the exception of the Departmentfor Socio-Economics at the University of Economics ofVienna and there, above all, the Institute for EconomicGeography and Geoinformatics,” emphasises Fröhlich,who like Matthias Weber has held lectures on innovationeconomics at the institute.

HOW INNOVATION PROCESSES RUNInnovation economics ties into Schumpeter’s ideas and es-sentially deals with the basic analytic questions. For exam-ple, how innovation processes run and how they are to beunderstood and explained. Also with normative questions,like how should innovation processes be organised andwhat (basic) conditions are suited to stimulating innovati-ons. In order to get to the bottom of these questions, inno-vation economics uses theories and heuristics from variousscientific disciplines, like industrial economics, economicgeography, sociological technical studies, political sciencesor industrial sociology. As innovation systems demonstra-te properties, structures and development paths of complexsystems, a research trajectory has recently been developed ininnovation economics that is rooted in complexity research– and therefore in natural and formal sciences – and deve-lops explication patterns for innovation processes from thestructure and dynamics of complex systems.For innovation agents, for example, but also public admi-nistration, this knowledge of how innovation systemsfunction and what type of measures achieve as large an ef-fect as possible is “elementary. It becomes even more im-portant if it deals with the connection of national politicswith European activities in research technology and inno-vation politics.”

CO-OPERATION BETWEEN AIT AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS OF VIENNAThese considerations led to AIT’s Foresight & Policy Deve-lopment Department making the BMVIT a suggestion toestablish a diploma / master thesis and dissertation pro-gramme on the topic of innovation economics. In Septem-ber 2008, the co-operation agreement between the Depart-ment for Socio-Economics at the University of Economicsof Vienna and AIT was concluded, in which the parties ob-liged themselves to jointly train 15 doctoral candidates and50 graduates within the next five years, starting in 2009.

The “Knowledge and Talent Development Programme”(IEV) is born by altogether five network partners that arealso of great importance for the financing of the program-me. Besides the BMVIT, these are austria wirtschaftsser-vice” (AWS), Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft (FFG),Wissenschaftsfonds (FWF) and Wiener Wissenschafts-,Forschungs- und Technologiefonds (WWTF). The part-ners are involved in the form of so-called network meetings

Josef Fröhlich: „In order to be able toguarantee education at the highestinternational level, the students recei-ve intensive personal support fromAIT and the University of Economicsof Vienna.”


that take place once or twice a year where graduates anddoctoral candidates present their completed papers. A three-person programme committee, comprised ofManfred M. Fischer, Head of the Institute for EconomicGeography and Geoinformaticis, Matthias Weber, Head ofAIT’s Research, Technology & Innovation Policy BusinessUnit, and Josef Fröhlich, Head of AIT’s Foresight & PolicyDevelopment Department, is responsible for the organisa-tion. Annually there are two calls within the framework ofthe IEV programme. Students that would like to writetheir diploma / master thesis or dissertation within the fra-mework of Innovation Economics Vienna have to make aproposal and include a résumé. The proposal is conside-red by the programme committee and the candidates withthe best proposals are invited to a hearing. If the hearinggoes well, they receive approval for the financing of their di-ploma / master thesis or dissertation. This subsidyamounts to 350 Euros a month for diploma and mastertheses for a maximum of six months, in the case of publi-cation in the “Innovation Economics Vienna” series sevenmonths, for dissertations 1,500 Euros per month for a ma-ximum of three years. The scholarships are awarded in theform of a freelancer contract. Moreover, a student loft withfully equipped work stations in the Department is at thedisposal of the graduates and doctoral candidates. In order to be able to guarantee education at the highest in-ternational level, the students receive intensive support. Allgraduates and doctoral candidates are allotted an expertmentor from the AIT Department and an advisor with aninternational scientific reputation by the University of Eco-nomics. Within the framework of the accompanying gra-duate and doctoral candidate seminar, Innovation Econo-mics Vienna, which takes place at the University of Econo-mics, the students have to hold a presentation that is alsoattended by the expert mentor. What is special, as Fröhlichcomments, is “that they are not only involved in the scien-tific discussion with the auditorium, but also with themembers of the auditorium on this occasion.” The highqualitative benchmark and the very effective expert sup-port of graduates and doctoral candidates guarantee thebest career perspectives, since “students who have publis-hed their diploma thesis or master thesis in our series ofpublications,” says Fröhlich, “normally find a job immedia-tely, either with a network partner, a research institute or atthe University of Economics.” The topics are suggested by the expert mentors of the De-partment, discussed in the programme committee, possi-bly adjusted, and then publicly announced. They are stron-gly oriented on the research areas of the Department andconcern foresight and foresight methods, issues of steering,like simulation, but also the development and applicationof methods for the analysis of innovation systems and/orfor sustainability research.For instance, a diploma thesis developed a model to studythe effects of climate change on Austrian ski regions. Anot-her worked out an analysis model for the connection of co-patenting networks and co-operation networks in the fieldof research and development. All this in connection withthe education programme, in which 19 graduates – ofwhom seven have completed their papers – and nine doc-toral candidates have received financing. ///

/// MANFRED M. FISCHER, HEADOF THE INSTITUTE FOR ECONO-MIC GEOGRAPHY AND GEOINFOR-MATICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OFECONOMICS OF VIENNA, ON THEPOSSIBILITIES OF STIMULATINGINNOVATIONS.

Do you think that the term innovation isused excessively?Undoubtedly. The exaggerated use of theterm of technical innovation has various

causes, but in the end is connected to the subjective innovation term appa-rently being dominant in general language use.

How can “true” innovations be stimulated?The interactive model of technological change emphasises that technologicalinnovations are not just the result of systematic R&D activities, but also thatof complex business interactions. From the point of view of innovation econo-mics, networks in general, and interactions with the scientific system, in par-ticular, play a central role, since they support the sole-company innovationintensity and speed up the distribution of inventions. In order to stimulate theinnovative behaviour of the economy, it would therefore be advisable to betterconnect university basic research as well as application-oriented researchwith product development, to make the co-operation with the economy moreattractive at universities and to provide sufficient investment funds forresearch and development as well as education. In light of the rigorous bud-getary restrictions, it must be difficult for universities to harmonise their tra-ditional core tasks of knowledge production and education in the accustomedquality with their role as an integrating element of the national innovationsystem.

The “Innovation Economics” programme for graduates and doctoral can-didates implemented in co-operation with AIT has been running for twoyears. Can you draw a first interim conclusion?The co-operation with the Foresight & Policy Development Department at AIThas led to the Department for Socio-Economics at the University of Econo-mics of Vienna – with financial support from our network partner organisati-ons – being able to realise a qualitatively valuable educational focus on“innovation economics”, measured using international benchmarks. Bymaking students familiar with theories, models and methods at the front endof scientific research and working on diploma theses and dissertations whosefindings are highly relevant for the political practice.Moreover, we aspire to involve our network partner organisations – BMVIT,AWS, FFG, FWF and WWTF – in the IEV activities.In the first two years the programme ran, ten diploma theses were comple-ted. Six further graduates and seven doctoral candidates are currently wor-king on their diploma theses or dissertations. The diploma theses that havebeen completed successfully have led to the colleagues being able to start acareer quickly and being offered interesting jobs. ///

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