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Foresight in Policy cycles: case of Romania. ROST Romanian Science and Technology Foresight. Outline: Background Objectives Specific country context Organizational Structure; Stakeholders; National RDI priorities; From system priorities to vision; RDI Strategy; Our links. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Campbell WARDEN Adrian CURAJ
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
EARMA-European Association of Research Managers and Administrators
Executive Agency For Higher Education and Research Funding-Romania
Foresight in Policy cycles: case of Romania
ROSTROSTRomanian Science and Technology ForesightRomanian Science and Technology Foresight
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Outline:Outline:
1.1. BackgroundBackground
2.2. ObjectivesObjectives
3.3. Specific country context Specific country context
4.4. Organizational Structure;Organizational Structure;
5.5. Stakeholders; Stakeholders;
6.6. National RDI priorities;National RDI priorities;
7.7. From system priorities to vision;From system priorities to vision;
8.8. RDI Strategy;RDI Strategy;
9.9. Our linksOur links
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
BackgroundBackground
– ROST ROST Project, the Romanian Science and Technology Project, the Romanian Science and Technology Foresight, was launched in 2004;Foresight, was launched in 2004;
• Preparatory phase (November –December 2004);Preparatory phase (November –December 2004);• Implementation phase (June 2005-October 2006)Implementation phase (June 2005-October 2006)
– The sponsor: Ministry of Education and Research, National The sponsor: Ministry of Education and Research, National
Authority for Scientific Research.Authority for Scientific Research.
– A strong political will not affected by general election at A strong political will not affected by general election at the end of 2004;the end of 2004;
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
BackgroundBackground
– From chronic From chronic under-financingunder-financing and RDI seen as and RDI seen as expenditureexpenditure to an unprecedented increase in public expenditure in RD, to an unprecedented increase in public expenditure in RD, and RD seen as and RD seen as investment;investment;
– Increase in public expenditure for RD from 0.2 in 2004 to Increase in public expenditure for RD from 0.2 in 2004 to 0.7 in 2007 and 1.0 in 2010;0.7 in 2007 and 1.0 in 2010;
– From broad “development” and “a coffee for all” to From broad “development” and “a coffee for all” to concentration and support for excellence;concentration and support for excellence;
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
BackgroundBackground
– ChangesChanges in the Romania position in S&T in the Romania position in S&T; Catching-up ; Catching-up strategy and preparing the next step… forefront in strategy and preparing the next step… forefront in selected areas on selected topics;selected areas on selected topics;
– From a fragmented RDI system to Romanian Research From a fragmented RDI system to Romanian Research Area part of the ERA.Area part of the ERA.
– From brain-drain and ageing of human resources to real From brain-drain and ageing of human resources to real career development opportunities;career development opportunities;
– From “evaluation in our way” to international evaluationFrom “evaluation in our way” to international evaluation
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
ObjectivesObjectives
The project’s main objective:The project’s main objective:
To develop the “To develop the “RDI National Strategy for the period 2007-RDI National Strategy for the period 2007-2013”2013”, that should eventually generate further the the , that should eventually generate further the the national research framework programme national research framework programme “National RDI plan “National RDI plan for the period 2007-2013”. for the period 2007-2013”.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
ObjectivesObjectives
Specific objectives:Specific objectives:
– Assessment of the National RDI System ;
– Defining the set of strategic and specific objectivesstrategic and specific objectives for the Romanian RDI system for the period 2007-2013;
– Develop the National RDI Strategy based on strategic strategic planning elementsplanning elements (?!);
– Develop the NPRDI II, and drafting the needed drafting the needed programmatic instrumentsprogrammatic instruments.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
ObjectivesObjectives
Additional objectives:Additional objectives:
– Develop the knowledge base in order to provide post-implementation support and dynamic use of the project results;
– Identify opportunities for regional Knowledge Transfer (Black Sea, Balkans).
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Objectives Objectives A link with foresight programmesA link with foresight programmes
Both product and process orientedBoth product and process oriented
– Product orientedProduct oriented ( (sponsor requestsponsor request))• Supply decision makers with analytical reports (a lack Supply decision makers with analytical reports (a lack
of reliable data and existing coherent reports);of reliable data and existing coherent reports);• List of priorities (??);List of priorities (??);• Related actions:Related actions:
– RDI Strategy;RDI Strategy;– Second National Plan for Research, Development Second National Plan for Research, Development
and Innovation. and Innovation. – Process orientedProcess oriented ( (ROST team expectation ROST team expectation ) )
• Facilitate networking;Facilitate networking;• Facilitate communication and co-operation among Facilitate communication and co-operation among
stakeholders;stakeholders;• Increase the science-society dialogue.Increase the science-society dialogue.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Specific country contextSpecific country context
A view from S&T governanceA view from S&T governance
National Plan for Research National Plan for Research and Development 2007-2013and Development 2007-2013
RDI Strategy 2007-2013RDI Strategy 2007-2013
RomanianRomanianAcademyAcademy
(2006- 8.2%)(2006- 8.2%)
Ministry of EducationMinistry of Education and Researchand Research
National AuthorityNational Authorityfor Scientific Researhfor Scientific Researh
(2006-81%)(2006-81%)
Other MinistersOther Ministers(2006-10.8%)(2006-10.8%)
Academy of Medical Academy of Medical SciencesSciences
Academy of Academy of Agriculture SciencesAgriculture Sciences
Academy of Medical Academy of Medical SciencesSciences
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Specific country context (?)Specific country context (?)
LL1. A proper sponsor’s authority/responsibility LL1. A proper sponsor’s authority/responsibility levellevel
– RDI policy seen as an isolated policy;RDI policy seen as an isolated policy;– Different actors in the S&T governance system Different actors in the S&T governance system
try to:try to: Keep their position even empower it by the new Keep their position even empower it by the new
policy documents;policy documents; Continue to control their budget according to Continue to control their budget according to
their internal agenda.their internal agenda.
Results: duplication, fragmentation, waste of Results: duplication, fragmentation, waste of resources, expenses vs. investment, etc.resources, expenses vs. investment, etc.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Specific country context (?)Specific country context (?)
Links with other policies, strategies, plans Links with other policies, strategies, plans
RDI Strategy NDPNDP
EU-Framework EU-Framework programmeprogramme Defense Energy
Environment
Agriculture
Transport
Land planning
Export
SMSEducation
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Specific country context (?)Specific country context (?)
– The whole project has been mainly oriented to the S&T The whole project has been mainly oriented to the S&T policy;policy;
– Innovation policies are also dependent on the Dept. of Innovation policies are also dependent on the Dept. of Trade and Industry, Agency for SMEs, among other Trade and Industry, Agency for SMEs, among other governmental players (ministries, agencies, etc.)governmental players (ministries, agencies, etc.)
– Formally the players/stakeholders were involved but it was Formally the players/stakeholders were involved but it was not really passed the gap of discussing about S&T strategy not really passed the gap of discussing about S&T strategy or Science, Technology and Innovation Strategy. It is a or Science, Technology and Innovation Strategy. It is a task for the ”next loop”. task for the ”next loop”.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Specific country contextSpecific country context
LL2. Bounded rationality: if you have a “right” client you could LL2. Bounded rationality: if you have a “right” client you could accept the challenges…accept the challenges…
even if…even if…– It is not a clear understanding how could foresight contributes to its It is not a clear understanding how could foresight contributes to its
strategic objectives;strategic objectives;– ToR are not well defined;ToR are not well defined;– The expectations are not realistic (foresight a panacea?!);The expectations are not realistic (foresight a panacea?!);– It provides not enough time to complete the exercise but motivated It provides not enough time to complete the exercise but motivated
by the realistic (?!) time constraints it has by the realistic (?!) time constraints it has
but :but :– It can be seen a clear commitment to use the results;It can be seen a clear commitment to use the results;– It is strong enough to cover the budget;It is strong enough to cover the budget;– It is stable enough to survive (maintain high level of interest) at It is stable enough to survive (maintain high level of interest) at
least for the whole exercise and part of the implementation (?!?)least for the whole exercise and part of the implementation (?!?)
Adapted after a slide of Karel Klusacek Adapted after a slide of Karel Klusacek
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Steering CommitteeSteering Committee
High Level Expert GroupsHigh Level Expert Groups
Inte
rnatio
nal A
dvis
ory
Board
Inte
rnatio
nal A
dvis
ory
Board
Pro
ject S
cie
ntifi
c
Pro
ject S
cie
ntifi
c
Com
mitte
eC
om
mitte
e
Project ManagementProject Management
Ministry of Ministry of Education and Education and
ResearchResearch
Expert PanelsExpert Panels
ExpertsExperts
Organizational Structure (1)Organizational Structure (1)
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Organizational Organizational Structure (2)Structure (2)
Research institutes of the Research institutes of the Roamanian Academy (2)Roamanian Academy (2)
National RD Institutes National RD Institutes (11)(11)
Universities (7)Universities (7)
SMS / NGO (4)SMS / NGO (4)
Consortium Consortium coordinationcoordination
(2 PO)(2 PO)
Think Tanks (4)Think Tanks (4)
Romanian AcademyRomanian Academy
ASTRASTR
Academy of Agri. SciencesAcademy of Agri. Sciences
AGIRAGIR
Military Equipment and Military Equipment and Technologies Research Technologies Research
AgencyAgency
Academy of Medical Academy of Medical SciencesSciences
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Organizational Structure (3)Organizational Structure (3)
A large ConsortiaA large Consortia
Significant extra managerial workload;Significant extra managerial workload;
butbut All important stakeholders were represented;All important stakeholders were represented;
even moreeven more Some organizations asked during the exercise to Some organizations asked during the exercise to
become official partners in the project (e.g. become official partners in the project (e.g. Romanian Academy);…Romanian Academy);…interesting and unusualinteresting and unusual
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Organizational Structure (4)Organizational Structure (4)
Steering Committee, 5 persons:Steering Committee, 5 persons:– Immediate past State Secretary for Research who Immediate past State Secretary for Research who
launched the foresight exercise;launched the foresight exercise;– The State Secretary for Research who started the The State Secretary for Research who started the
NRDP I implementation, in 1999;NRDP I implementation, in 1999;– A vice-president of Romanian Academy;A vice-president of Romanian Academy;– President of Consultative Council for Technology-President of Consultative Council for Technology-
National Authority for Scientific Research;National Authority for Scientific Research;– President of the National University Research President of the National University Research
Council.Council.
An Old Boys Club?An Old Boys Club?
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Organizational Structure (5)Organizational Structure (5)
Q: Feasible or not?Q: Feasible or not?
LL3:LL3: However you call it and the names you use panels, HLEG, etc. a However you call it and the names you use panels, HLEG, etc. a clear WBS is a must for a large project. clear WBS is a must for a large project.
Be careful at coordination and information flow to avoid running in Be careful at coordination and information flow to avoid running in parallel, separately, a number of small projects.parallel, separately, a number of small projects.
Wp1 Wp1 ManagementManagement
Wp2 Wp2 RDI System RDI System AssessmentAssessment
Wp3 Wp3 Priorities and Priorities and
VisionVision
Wp4 Wp4 StrategyStrategy
Wp5 Wp5 PlanPlan
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Organizational Structure (6)Organizational Structure (6)International Advisory BoardInternational Advisory Board
EC, DG-R:EC, DG-R:– Directorate K2;Directorate K2;– IPTS-JRCIPTS-JRC– ERCERC
World BankWorld BankUNIDOUNIDOUNESCO-CEPESUNESCO-CEPESNational Science Foundation;National Science Foundation;European Science FoundationEuropean Science FoundationNWO-Holland;NWO-Holland;EARMAEARMAandandFrom From Hungary: HAS-Vice-presidentHungary: HAS-Vice-presidentSpainSpain
– Science Policy;Science Policy;– BiotechBiotech
UKUK– TTTT
SenateSenate: Commission for : Commission for
Education and ResearchEducation and Research
Parliament: ICT CommissionParliament: ICT Commission
Prime minister: a counselor Prime minister: a counselor
Presidency: a state counselorPresidency: a state counselor
Romanian Academy: a Vice-Romanian Academy: a Vice-
presidentpresident
Group Renault-vice-presidentGroup Renault-vice-president
GEA-think tank, past minister of GEA-think tank, past minister of
finance;finance;
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
March 2005
March 2005
Project Start Project Start (Mutual Learning Workshop(Mutual Learning WorkshopForLearn-IPTS Seville)ForLearn-IPTS Seville)
Expected startExpected start of theof the
implementationimplementation
Public tender for Public tender for the projectthe project
RDI System RDI System AssessmentAssessment
RDI System RDI System AssessmentAssessment
Multiple visionsMultiple visions(foresight results)(foresight results)
Multiple visionsMultiple visions(foresight results)(foresight results)
National National RDI StrategyRDI Strategy
National National RDI StrategyRDI Strategy
RDI Plan RDI Plan (framework)(framework)
RDI Plan RDI Plan (framework)(framework)
RDI Plan RDI Plan (details)(details)
RDI Plan RDI Plan (details)(details)
June 2005
June 2005
July 2006
July 2006Oct 2006
Oct 2006
Sept 2006
Sept 2006
Dec 2005
Dec 2005Jan 2007
Jan 2007
Dec 2005
Dec 2005Nov 2006
Nov 2006
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
Skill/Will matrix adapted from ForLearn projectSkill/Will matrix adapted from ForLearn project
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseStakeholdersStakeholders
To whom To whom should be should be givengiven a a special special
attentionattention
Who shouldn’t be Who shouldn’t be involvedinvolved
Who can be omittedWho can be omitted Who should beWho should be
The most important The most important to participate in to participate in
Are willing to Are willing to participate but are participate but are lacking the skillslacking the skills
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseStakeholdersStakeholders
LL4. CLL4. C3 3 (Communicate/Communicate/Communicate) (Communicate/Communicate/Communicate) with your stakeholders even if it seems to be with your stakeholders even if it seems to be crystal clear for everybody. crystal clear for everybody.
LL4’. Do not forget general public; they are tax payers and have to LL4’. Do not forget general public; they are tax payers and have to be informed. Scientific citizen... be informed. Scientific citizen...
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight Exercise
Foresight ArchitectureForesight Architecture PROBLEMSPROBLEMS
Fragmentation Fragmentation within the system within the system / lack of cohesion / lack of cohesion
Need for Need for planning planning thethe effective use of effective use of structural fundsstructural funds
Low level of Low level of science – society science – society dialoguedialogue
THE FOUR PILLARS OF THE FOUR PILLARS OF ROMANIAN S&T ROMANIAN S&T
FORESIFORESIGGHTHT
ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC NEEDS ECONOMIC NEEDS
present present -- medium term medium term futurefuture
MOST PROMISING MOST PROMISING SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
presentpresent
STRATEGIC VISIONS STRATEGIC VISIONS present present -- medium term medium term
futurefuture
RERESULTSSULTS
Foresight into the Foresight into the R&D System with R&D System with the time horizon the time horizon 2020, 2020, particularized for particularized for 20132013
Suggestions on Suggestions on the fields of S&T the fields of S&T Romanian R&D Romanian R&D System should System should focus.focus.
ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF THETHE R&D R&D SYSTEM SYSTEM
present present -- medium term medium term futurefuture
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight Exercise
Foresight approach:Foresight approach:
1. Systematic1. Systematic• Six consultation rounds with specific methodologies for Six consultation rounds with specific methodologies for
defining RDI prioritiesdefining RDI priorities
2. Collaborative2. Collaborative• 800 persons in workshops, 5000 online800 persons in workshops, 5000 online
3. Prospective:• a long tem visiona long tem vision
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight Exercise Foresight Exercise
Systematic ApproachSystematic Approach
Institutional Institutional DialogueDialogue
Domains Domains of Interestof Interest
On-line On-line surveysurvey
Domains Domains of Interestof Interest
Panel 1Panel 1
Panel 2Panel 2
Panel 3Panel 3
Panel 4Panel 4
Panel 5Panel 5
Panel 6Panel 6
Panel 7Panel 7
Cross- impactCross- impact
Public Public EventEvent
WorkshopWorkshop
Domains Domains of Interestof Interest
Institutional Institutional Dialogue Dialogue
StakeholdersStakeholdersPoles of Poles of
excellenceexcellencePossible Possible PrioritiesPriorities
Negotiation Negotiation WorkshopWorkshop
Possible Possible PrioritiesPriorities
Delphi Delphi Runda IRunda I
Multi-criteria Multi-criteria
analyzeanalyze
Multiple Multiple Visions Visions
RTDIRTDI20202020
ScenariosScenarios
Panel 1Panel 1
Panel 2Panel 2
Panel 3Panel 3
Panel 4Panel 4
Panel 5Panel 5
Panel 6Panel 6On-line On-line SurveySurvey
Cross-ImpactCross-ImpactAnalyzeAnalyze Panel 7Panel 7
WS 2WS 2
WS 1WS 1
WS 3WS 3
WS 4WS 4
WS 5WS 5
WS 6WS 6
WS 7WS 7 reportreport
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight Foresight
ExerciseExercise
Collaborative ApproachCollaborative Approach
Institutional Institutional DialogueDialogue
Domains Domains of Interestof Interest
On-line On-line surveysurvey
Domains Domains of Interestof Interest
Panel 1Panel 1
Panel 2Panel 2
Panel 3Panel 3
Panel 4Panel 4
Panel 5Panel 5
Panel 6Panel 6
Panel 7Panel 7
Cross- impactCross- impact
Public Public EventEvent
WorkshopWorkshop
Domains Domains of Interestof Interest
Institutional Institutional Dialogue Dialogue
StakeholdersStakeholdersPoles of Poles of
excellenceexcellencePossible Possible PrioritiesPriorities
Negotiation Negotiation WorkshopWorkshop
Possible Possible PrioritiesPriorities
Delphi Delphi Runda IRunda I
Multi-criteria Multi-criteria
analyzeanalyze
Multiple Multiple Visions Visions
RTDIRTDI20202020
ScenariosScenarios
Panel 1Panel 1
Panel 2Panel 2
Panel 3Panel 3
Panel 4Panel 4
Panel 5Panel 5
Panel 6Panel 6On-line On-line SurveySurvey
Cross-ImpactCross-ImpactAnalyzeAnalyze Panel 7Panel 7
WS 2WS 2
WS 1WS 1
WS 3WS 3
WS 4WS 4
WS 5WS 5
WS 6WS 6
WS 7WS 7 reportreport
11 key institutions
1091 respondents
147experts
7*20experts
640experts
500Resp.
4880Resp.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight Exercise
PanelsPanels
Panel 1: Panel 1: Information Society Technologies Information Society Technologies
Panel 2: Panel 2: Competitiveness through innovationCompetitiveness through innovation
Panel 3: Panel 3: Quality of lifeQuality of life
Panel 4: Panel 4: Social and cultural dynamicsSocial and cultural dynamics
Panel 5: Panel 5: Sustainable developmentSustainable development
Panel 6: Panel 6: Institutional building/empoweringInstitutional building/empowering
Panel 7: Panel 7: Science, frontier science, knowledge Science, frontier science, knowledge
developmentdevelopment
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight Exercise
PanelsPanels
– 15 experts each;15 experts each;
– Chair, one deputy chair, and one rapporteur; Chair, one deputy chair, and one rapporteur;
– Chair was asked to nominate experts consulting Chair was asked to nominate experts consulting project partners, key stakeholders and use her/his project partners, key stakeholders and use her/his personal contacts; personal contacts;
– A balance distribution between A balance distribution between S&T; S&T governance; S&T; S&T governance; Central and Local Adm.; Industry & Business; Civil Central and Local Adm.; Industry & Business; Civil Society;Society;
– No major changes from nomination to membership. No major changes from nomination to membership.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
February- March 2006February- March 2006
Panels on each Panels on each
Domain of InterestDomain of Interest
P1-P7P1-P7
Panels’ activityPanels’ activity
Methods: Methods:
Desk research, Desk research, Workshops, Workshops, Interviews with Interviews with stakeholdersstakeholders
max. 99max. 99
List of possible List of possible priorities for each priorities for each Domain of InterestDomain of Interest
3 - 303 - 30
Answers per Answers per stakeholder stakeholder possible priorities possible priorities for the Domain of for the Domain of Interest (DoI)Interest (DoI)
400-800 400-800 possible priorities possible priorities for each for each Domain of InterestDomain of Interest
Reacti
on
Reacti
on
Clustering Clustering
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
7 7 Negotiation Negotiation Workshops Workshops
Parallel and Parallel and plenary plenary sessionssessions
3232
Possible RTDI Possible RTDI PrioritiesPriorities
D7D7
60-100 60-100 participants /Workshopparticipants /Workshop
Reacti
on
Reacti
on
15 15 Possible RTDI Possible RTDI
Priorities on each Priorities on each Domain of InterestDomain of Interest
D1-D6D1-D6Preparing the statements Preparing the statements
for the Delphi surveyfor the Delphi survey
++
14-30 March 200614-30 March 2006
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Reacti
on
Reacti
on
April – May 2006April – May 2006
Delphi SurveyDelphi Survey
Round I Round I
(D1-D6)(D1-D6)
Criteria:Criteria:
– Economic Growth;Economic Growth;– Job Creation;Job Creation;– Social Cohesion;Social Cohesion;– Environmental Environmental
Impact;Impact;– Attractiveness for Attractiveness for
private investments;private investments;– Knowledge Knowledge
production; production; – RTDI System RTDI System
Capacity to deliver Capacity to deliver significant results.significant results.
4880 4880 persons saving sessions:persons saving sessions:
– 1164 for D1: 1164 for D1: Information Society Information Society TechnologiesTechnologies
– 650 for D2 : 650 for D2 : Competitiveness Competitiveness through innovationthrough innovation
– 549 for D3 : 549 for D3 : Quality of lifeQuality of life– 541 for D4 : 541 for D4 : Social and Cultural Social and Cultural
DynamicsDynamics– 474 for D5: 474 for D5: Sustainable Sustainable
DevelopmentDevelopment– 551 for D6 : 551 for D6 : Institutional building Institutional building
of the National RDI System in the of the National RDI System in the knowledge societyknowledge society
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Reacti
on
Reacti
on
April – May 2006April – May 2006
On-line SurveyOn-line Survey
Basic ResearchBasic Research
D7D7
Two dimensions:Two dimensions:
1.1. Existing Potential Existing Potential to produce to produce publications in publications in highly ranked highly ranked Journals;Journals;
2.2. Convergence with Convergence with the directions of the directions of investigation (D1-investigation (D1-D5); links with the D5); links with the socio-economic socio-economic needsneeds
More than 700 personsMore than 700 persons
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Business representatives in foresight
Business representatives in foresightBusiness representatives in foresight
November 2005November 2005 (Institutional consultations) (Institutional consultations)
– ADER (Romanian Association for Economic Development)ADER (Romanian Association for Economic Development)
– AOAR (Romanian Association of Business-persons)AOAR (Romanian Association of Business-persons)
– UGIR 1903 (General Union of Romanian Industrialists)UGIR 1903 (General Union of Romanian Industrialists)
December 2005-January 2006December 2005-January 2006 (Online consultation) (Online consultation)
– 85 respondents from business sector85 respondents from business sector
February – March 2006February – March 2006 (Stakeholder consultation) (Stakeholder consultation)
– 40% of the approx 800 institutions40% of the approx 800 institutions
June 2006June 2006 (Consultation of business sector) (Consultation of business sector)
– 26 employers’ associations26 employers’ associations
– 89 89 companies companies
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseProspective dimensionProspective dimension
Vision 2020Vision 2020
A. Priorities for further research (26)A. Priorities for further research (26)
B. Priorities of the RDI system transformationB. Priorities of the RDI system transformation
C. Scenarios of RDI system development (4)C. Scenarios of RDI system development (4)
D. Strategic visionD. Strategic vision
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseProspective dimensionProspective dimension
Step 1:Step 1: From ordered list of possible priorities to the list of From ordered list of possible priorities to the list of
prioritiespriorities
– – Find two personalities for each of the 5 categories of thematic Find two personalities for each of the 5 categories of thematic
prioritiespriorities
– – Focus group: choosing up to 5 priorities out of the first 8Focus group: choosing up to 5 priorities out of the first 8
from the ordered list of 15 for each categoryfrom the ordered list of 15 for each category
Result : 26 RDI prioritiesResult : 26 RDI priorities
Step 2Step 2: : Elaborate a fiche for each of the 26 prioritiesElaborate a fiche for each of the 26 priorities
– – Invite a personality for each of the 26 selected prioritiesInvite a personality for each of the 26 selected priorities
– – A set of interviews for developing fiches (including rationale A set of interviews for developing fiches (including rationale
of public investment in the field and establishing key aspects of public investment in the field and establishing key aspects
of the priority)of the priority)
Priorities for further researchPriorities for further research
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseProspective dimensionProspective dimension
LL5. LL5. When you find proper persons for developing fiches have be When you find proper persons for developing fiches have be
sure ToR are simple and clear, crystal clearsure ToR are simple and clear, crystal clear. .
Work person to personWork person to person; it is difficult to make proper arrangements for large ; it is difficult to make proper arrangements for large meetings.meetings.
Be sure the task is well understoodBe sure the task is well understood just in order not to lose days and weeks. just in order not to lose days and weeks.
Case by case and person by person you should decideCase by case and person by person you should decide to interview the key to interview the key person, develop a draft, discuss the draft and make adjustments a.s.o until the person, develop a draft, discuss the draft and make adjustments a.s.o until the moment the key person takes the ownership of a fiche. moment the key person takes the ownership of a fiche.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseFrom system priorities to visionFrom system priorities to vision
Step 1.Step 1. Selecting 5 of the 20 priorities for the RDI system Selecting 5 of the 20 priorities for the RDI system
transformationtransformation
Step 2.Step 2. Establishing the detailed meaning for each of 5 priorities Establishing the detailed meaning for each of 5 priorities
Step 3.Step 3. Formulating scenarios Formulating scenarios
Step 4.Step 4. Writing a story for each scenario Writing a story for each scenario
Step 5.Step 5. Choosing the dominant scenario Choosing the dominant scenario
Step 6.Step 6. Combining the scenarios into the vision Combining the scenarios into the vision
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Romanian Romanian Foresight ExerciseForesight ExerciseFrom system priorities to vision; From system priorities to vision;
1. 1. KNOWLEDGE NETWORKSKNOWLEDGE NETWORKS
The RDI system is connected The RDI system is connected to international to international developments in the field of developments in the field of knowledge knowledge
2. 2. BRIDGES OF SCIENCEBRIDGES OF SCIENCE
Scientific activity and Scientific activity and research policies are well research policies are well integrated into the social integrated into the social construction construction
3. 3. PPRIVATERIVATE INTEREST FOR INTEREST FOR PUBLIC GOODPUBLIC GOOD
The RDI system supports The RDI system supports innovation as a basis of innovation as a basis of company competitivenesscompany competitiveness
4. 4. RESEARCH – AN ELITE OF RESEARCH – AN ELITE OF SOCIETYSOCIETY
The RDI system attracts and The RDI system attracts and motivates those catering to motivates those catering to societal needs to generate societal needs to generate knowledge.knowledge.
ScenariosScenarios
Dominant Dominant ScenarioScenario
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
ForesightForesightNational RDI prioritiesNational RDI priorities
RDI Strategy
– Introduction;– Vision;– Current status;– RDI system objectives;
– Human resources;– Capacities;– Exploratory research;– Priorities of public RDI
investment; – Innovation;– Institutional performance;– RDI system governance
RDI system RDI system assessmentassessment
Scenario buildingScenario building
PersonalitiesPersonalitiesWorkshopWorkshop
Key personsKey personsFocus groupFocus group
ForesightForesightRDI system RDI system
transformation prioritiestransformation priorities
ForesightForesightBasic research potentialBasic research potential
RDI StrategyRDI Strategy
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
The Vision in Strategy
Vision statement:Vision statement:
The RDI system will represent the driver of the The RDI system will represent the driver of the knowledge society development in Romania, being able knowledge society development in Romania, being able to support the innovation in all the fields that contribute to support the innovation in all the fields that contribute to the welfare of the citizens and also to reach the to the welfare of the citizens and also to reach the internationally acknowledged scientific excellence.internationally acknowledged scientific excellence.
One page visionOne page vision
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
RDI System Objectives
1.1. Knowledge creationKnowledge creation– top scientific and technological resultstop scientific and technological results
2.2. Romanian economy competitivenessRomanian economy competitiveness– Focus on innovation in business sectorFocus on innovation in business sector
3.3. Social qualitySocial quality– Science and technology supporting human and Science and technology supporting human and
social development social development
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
RDI System Objectives
Priorities of public RDI investmentPriorities of public RDI investment
The 26 priorities have been clustered in 8 categories:The 26 priorities have been clustered in 8 categories:–Information Technology and CommunicationsInformation Technology and Communications–EnergyEnergy–EnvironmentEnvironment–HealthHealth–Agriculture, food security and safetyAgriculture, food security and safety–BiotechnologiesBiotechnologies–Innovative materials, processes and goodsInnovative materials, processes and goods–Social and economic researchSocial and economic research
Clustering process: workshopClustering process: workshopIn the Strategy every cluster has a rationale, objectives and thematic In the Strategy every cluster has a rationale, objectives and thematic categories.categories.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
RDI System Objectives
Priorities of public RDI investmentPriorities of public RDI investment
The 26 priorities have been clustered in 8 categories:The 26 priorities have been clustered in 8 categories:–Information Technology and CommunicationsInformation Technology and Communications–EnergyEnergy–EnvironmentEnvironment–HealthHealth–Agriculture, food security and safetyAgriculture, food security and safety–BiotechnologiesBiotechnologies–Innovative materials, processes and goodsInnovative materials, processes and goods–Social and economic researchSocial and economic research
Clustering process: workshopClustering process: workshopIn the Strategy every cluster has a rationale, objectives and thematic In the Strategy every cluster has a rationale, objectives and thematic categories.categories.
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
ForesightForesightNational RDI prioritiesNational RDI priorities
RDI Strategy
– Introduction;– Vision;– Current status;– RDI system objectives;
– Human resources;– Capacities;– Exploratory research;– Priorities of public RDI
investment; – Innovation;– Institutional performance;– RDI system governance
RDI system RDI system assessmentassessment
Scenario buildingScenario building
PersonalitiesPersonalitiesWorkshopWorkshop
Key personsKey personsFocus groupFocus group
ForesightForesightRDI system RDI system
transformation prioritiestransformation priorities
ForesightForesightBasic research potentialBasic research potential
National RDI PlanNational RDI Plan
RDI PlanRDI Plan
Introduction
Programs: P1. Human resources P2. Capacities P3. Ideas P4. Priorities of public investment P5. Innovation P6. Institutional core-funding
Institutional framework
Investment model
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Investment ModelInvestment Model
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
The elaboration process
Our links:Our links:
- UNIDO – FP6 SSA project- Just approvedUNIDO – FP6 SSA project- Just approved- ForLearn- beneficiaries and providers – Mutual ForLearn- beneficiaries and providers – Mutual
Learning Workshops Learning Workshops - EFMN- The European Foresight Monitoring EFMN- The European Foresight Monitoring
NetworkNetwork- FORSOCIETY- ERA-NET FP6 project, voluntary FORSOCIETY- ERA-NET FP6 project, voluntary
participation to the benchmarking exerciseparticipation to the benchmarking exercise- COST A22-ForesightCOST A22-Foresight
””The future of Higher Education in Romanian” The future of Higher Education in Romanian” (?!?)(?!?)
Campbell WARDEN
2006 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers
Adrian CURAJ
Thank you!Thank you!
Questions, comments please.Questions, comments please.