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MARCO LOURENCO ENISA Cybersecurity Analyst LEAD
27 06 2019
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
2
Henri Poincaré
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Started as data forensics analyst for the financial sector
during the 90s. Worked with Interpol in criminal
investigation system projects in early 2000s. With
European External Action Service as CISO in mid 2000s.
United Nations and Microsoft as regional manager. For
the last 10 years worked with government agencies in
cyber threat intelligence. Since last year in ENISA as
cyber security analyst lead.
WHO AM I?
4 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
John is an Irish modern farmer
• Sells meat via an online digital platform;
• Receives purchase orders from distributers
electronically for milk, cheese, and butter;
• Uses a satellite tracking system to monitor the
cattle;
• Uses a geo-positioning system to monitor the
delivery fleet;
• Uses a machine system to milk and feed the
cows;
• Uses a cloud based management system to
process the invoices and make payments online;
• Has a local network and one server;
• Doesn’t have IT personnel but contracts a local
provider;
• Employees 10 people all with mobile devices and
laptops (mainly his wife and kids).
• and … takes selfies with his cows and posts it on
Facebook and Instagram.
Hi, I’m John
John’s business risks:
• Weather related
• Veterinary related
• Market conditions
• Product quality control
• Compliance
5 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Alfredo will change his practice considering
that:
• There is a paradigm shift in the business model.
• Value-creation needs to be redefined and follow
the market trends.
• In the finance function today, companies expect
to have access to predictive data.
• This will requires knowing how to turn Big Data
into concise, decision-driving insights.
• Hiring financial experts with data scientists skills
with both a theoretical and practical
understanding of data and analytics.
• The finance practice will become more digital
with the cloud as one of its main tools.
• It will require a strong investment in innovation.
Hi, I’m Alfredo
Alfredo’s business risks:
• Compliance.
• Change in regulation.
• Negligent acts or errors.
• The danger of
unknowns, such as
employee fraud and
other criminal acts
7
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE FUTURE WILL BE LIKE IN
2 TO 5 YEARS FROM NOW?
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
10
LOOKING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
A report on emerging
technologies and associated
security challenges and
threats
• Identify the challenges in the digital
transformation roadmap.
• Use as a tool for decision makers
in future technology options and
early mitigation strategies.
• Envision how the future threat
landscape may look like.
11
FORECASTING TIME HORIZON
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
2020 2025 2030 2040
Emerging
technologiesFuture
technologies
12 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
By 2022, 53.7% of the world population will be connected to the internet
13 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
The global mobile
data traffic is set to
surpass 77 exabytes
per month
14 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
With 1.35 billion daily
searches and 3 billion
active users
exchanging online
messages.
15 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Processing 726 billion
payment transactions and
spending ca. 5 trillion USD
online a year.
18 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
develop a cognitive stage of everything
around us, including ourselves
19 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
a search to transform every aspect of
our existence and surrounding
environment into quantifiable data
20
KEY PATTERNS IN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Datafication
22
KEY PATTERNS IN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Datafication Technology
dependence
23 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
the IT and network
infrastructure is changing …
24 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
… moved by the amount of data,
number of users, services and
business requirements demanding for
more agile and scalable architectures
25 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
… moved by the datafication of the economy
and society; the platformization and
commoditization of the data center.
26
DECENTRALISED AND INTERCONNECTED
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
HCI NFV SDNNext generation of
mobile networks
Edge, Fog
computing and
MESH
Hyper converged
infrastructureNetwork function
virtualisation
Software defined
networks
27 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Technology will learn, interconnect and
operate autonomously ….
28 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
to deliver business and societal
benefits.
29
SMART AND AUTONOMOUS
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Artificial intelligence
AI, Machine Learning,
Deep Learning
Internet of Things
IOT, IIOT, sensors,
wearables, digital
assistants
Autonomous systems
Robots, vehicles,
vessels and drones
Voice assistants
Interfaces, chat bots,
natural language and
processing
30 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
A new era on how we
interface with technology
32 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
changing the way we see
ourselves and the world
around us
33
CONVERGED AND IMMERSIVE
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Mobile/Social Internet
Search /social
/messaging /livestream
Collaborative tech
Crowd, sharing, workplace,
open source, platforms and
tools
Immersive technology
Augmented, virtual and
mixed reality
New user interface
Facial/gesture, haptics, 3D
touch and gaze tracking.
34
FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES MAP
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
QCQuantum
computing
Nanotechnology
and IoBNT
2020 2030
Time line2025
The proliferation of nano-scale devices able to interconnect, self-replicate and operate on self-generated power, will spread everywhere including the human body.
Technology will break some of today’s barriers to unlock key scientific breakthroughs by solving some of the hardest mathematical and computing problems.
35
Future
Emerging
TECHNOLOGY MEGA-TRENDS
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Smart and
autonomousDecentralized and
interconnected
Converged and
immersive
Performant
and scaled
36 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
While these advancements may benefit
the world in immeasurable ways …
37 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
also have the potential to cause
great harm in ways we don’t yet
even recognize.
CTI Capability Maturity Model | Marco Lourenco
“ … there are only two types of
companies: those that have been
hacked and those that will be. And
even they are converging into one
category: companies that have been
hacked and will be hacked again.”
(Robert Muller)
39
KEY EMERGING CYBERSECURITY CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT DECADE
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Privacy and
Data ProtectionTrust and
Reputation
Adaptation Deception and
manipulation
40 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
The lack of processes and systems to protect sensitive data in anticipation of new use cases
41 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
where vulnerabilities result in serious threats to the protection of privacy and personal data.
42 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
the abusive use of personal data for various purposes without respecting citizens fundamental rights
43 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
to weaponise data in a digital influence and manipulation machine.
44 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
a growing interest in the surveillance of citizens
45 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
from the growing pressure for a shorter time to market
47 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
The complexity of the technological environment
48 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
The difficulties for organizations to adapt to new technological realities.
49 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
to attract and retain the skills required to maintain and secure the technology
50 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
to integrate technologies with poor security standards
51 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
In a wider attack surface and
threat landscape
52 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
where the dual use of technology
may have devastating
consequences
53 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
and the distribution of threats will
become more automatic and
targeted
54
SCALE OF CONCERN WITH EMERGING SECURITY CHALLENGES
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
55
KEY TRENDS WITH EMERGING CYBERSECURITY THREATS
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Autonomous
ThreatsPandemicware IoT – Internet
of Threats
• Shorter duration
• Distributed model
• Exploiting new products in
early stages
• Auto-replicating
• Engineered as a IoT device
• Integrated into the IoT
ecosystem
• Introduced in the circular
economy or through the
supply chain at low cost
• Exploring the dual use of
technology
• Autonomous threats
• Infiltrated in a device
• Better adapted to the
environment
• Capable of taking decisions
• Capable of mutating
• Fileless and traceless
• Exploring the dual use of
technology
56 FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
Predicting rain doesn’t count;
building arks does.
Warren Buffet
57
The opportunity is now, for decision-makers to place the same
importance identifying benefits as on assessing and evaluating the
risks, and for the industry to adopt better security and ethical
positions in the development of new products and services.
Now is also the time for policy-makers to legislate and regulate how
these technologies are developed and implemented.
The ultimate responsibility rests with all of us as individuals, in our
different roles, as members of society and participants in the
economy.
SUMMARY
FORECASTING EMERGING CHALLENGES AND CYBER SECURITY THREATS
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
MARCO LOURENCO
ENISA Horizontal Support and Analysis Team (HSA)
+30 2814 409 536 [email protected]