Forecast in Power Production and Impact on CCPs in Europe

1V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia

Forecast in Power Production and Impact on CCPs in Europe

Joachim Feuerborn

European Coal Combustion Products Association


Content

1. Introduction – Role of Coal in Energy mix

2. Role of Coal in Europe

3. Production and Utilisation of CCPs

4. Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

5. Conclusions


World – Energy Consumption 2012

Graph based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 06.2013

Total: 12.4 bn toe (= 17.7 bn tce) (cp: 14.6 bn tce in 2004)

1 Introduction – Role of Coal in Energy Mix


Expected growth in worldwide electricity generation (in billion kWh)

Source: IEA, VGB; in: VGB facts & figures 2012/2013



Expected growth in electricity generation (in billion kWh)

worldwide EU

Source: IEA, VGB; in: VGB facts & figures 2012/2013



2 Role of Coal in Europe

Source: EURACOAL


EU 27

Sweden

France

Austria

Belgium

Spain

Italy

Slovakia

Hungary

Netherlands

Finland

Ireland

Portugal

United Kingdom

Slovenia

Romania

Germany

Denmark

Bulgaria

Greece

Czech Republic

Poland

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Coal is a major fuel for energy and steam production in European coal-fired power plants, especially in single EU member states .


Hard coal Hard coal+ Lignite



3 Production and utilisation of CCPs

Development of CCP production in Europe (EU 15) from 1993 to 2010



Utilisation and dispoal fo CCPs in Europe (EU 15) in 2010


MS for EU statistics

* Estimate based on coal comsumption** Information on uses only partly available


EU15 EU 27* EU*

Production

CCPs total 48,327 >105 >145

ashes 37,687 >86 >124

desulph. products 10,64 >19 >21

utilisation rate

construction ind. 52% ** **

constr. + reclamation88% ** **

[mill.t]


IPPC Directive - Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control(main principles for permitting and control of installations, integrated approach, application of Best Available Technique (BAT))

LCPD - Large Combustion Plant Directive(aims to reduce acidifciation, ground level ozone and particulates by controlling emissions of SO3, NOx and dust from large combustion power plants)

IED - Industrial Emission Directive(successor of IPPCD - aims in minimising pollution from various industrial sources, based on several principals: integrated approach, BAT, flexibitlity, inspections, public participation)

The most important Directives are:

European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR)(replaces and improves the previous European Pollutant Emissions Register)

4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts


Basic protocol and convention

KYOTO ProtocolOn 1.12.1997 37 industrial countries agreed to reduce green-house gases (GHG) over the five year period 2008 – 2012,know as KYOTO Protocol which entered force in 2005

CONVENTION on Climate ChangeThe KYOTO Protocol is linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The Convention encourage industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol only commits them to do so.



Emission (CO2) Trading Industry has to deal with CO2 emissions with CO2 certificates. In the first two phases of CO2 trading the certificates were given for free, the third phase will start 1. January 2013 were certificates will be traded.

Mechanisms of the KYOTO Protocol

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)CDM allows emission-reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits, which can be traded and sold, and used by industrialized countries to a meet a part of their emission reduction targets.

Joint Implementation (JI) JI enables industrialized countries to carry out joint implementation projects with other developed countries



Climate and Energy Package

In December 2008, the European Parliament and the Council agreed upon the so-called “Climate and Energy Package”, which entered force in 2009.

The legislative package put in place what is collectively known as the “EU-20-20-20” targets to be met by 2020:

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20 % below 1990 level,

Increasing the share of renewable energy to 20%, and

Improving the EU’s energy efficiency by 20%.



The 20-20-20 package is part of the

Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050

The European Union (EU) is to become a competitive low carbon economy.

The EU should prepare for reductions in its domestic GHG emissions by 40 % by 2030, and by 80 % by 2050.

Aim: Reduction in global GHG emissions of 50 % by 2050 may avoid a temperature increase of 2°C



Mitigation of climate change in the EU: two stages – two speedsReduction of GHG emissions from 5.8 Gt/y in 1990, to some 4.6 Gt/y in 2020, and to some 1 Gt/y in 2050

Source: European Commission and OECD Environmental Outlook, 2008



Evolution of installed capacity in EU-27 – 2009 to 2020

53 %

44 %



Evolution of Electricity Generation in EU-27 – 2009 -2020

52 %

44 %


20V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, RussiaSource: EURELECTRIC Power Statistics

Generation equipment – capacity by primary energy in MW

DE

PE

ND

ING

ON

PO

LIT

ICA

L D

EC

ISIO

NS

!



Power Plant efficiency and CO2 reduction potential of the European Power Industry Source: VGB



Power Plant efficiency and CO2 reduction potential of the European Power Industry with CCS Source: VGB

CCS



New power plant projects in European member states Source: VGB



New power plant projects in single EU member states Source: VGB



New hard and lignite firing power plants under construction

(excerpt of VGB database on new power plant projects) UCON: under construction

CountryName of

PlantName of

CompanySite of Plant

No. Units

Unit Cap. MW (gr.)

Tot. Cap. MW (el.)

Main Fuel

Project Start (Y)

Startup(Y)

Status

Germany Datteln 4 E.ON Datteln 1 1055,0 1.055,0 HC 2007 2013 UCON

Germany Walsum 10 STEAG/Evonik Duisburg-Walsum

1 725,0 725,0 HC 2005 2013 UCON

Germany Moorburg 3-4Vattenfall Europe

Hamburg-Moorburg

2 820,0 1.640,0 HC 2006 2014 UCON

Germany Westfalen D-E RWE PowerHamm-Uentrop

2 800,0 1.600,0 HC 2008 2013 UCON

GermanyRheinhafen RDK 8

EnBW Karlsruhe 1 874,0 874,0 HC 2013 UCON

Germany Lünen Trianel Power Lünen 1 750,0 750,0 HC 2007 2013 UCON

Germany GKM 9Grosskraftwerk Mannheim AG

Mannheim 1 912,0 912,0 HC 2015 UCON

GermanyWilhelms-haven

GDF Suez, BKW Energie AG

Wilhelms-haven

1 800,0 800,0 HC 2013 UCON

Netherlands Eemshaven RWE Power Eemshaven 1 1600,0 1.600,0 HC 2008 2014 UCON

Netherlands Maasvlakte Electrabel Rotterdam 1 750,0 750,0 HC 2007 2012 UCON

Netherlands Maasvlakte 3 E.ON Benelux Maasvlakte 1 1100,0 1.100,0 HC 2006 2012 UCON

Czech Republic

Ledvice 4 CEZ AS Ledvice 1 660,0 660,0 LIG 2013 UCON

Poland Kozienice 11Enea Wytwarzanie

Kozienice 1 1075,0 1.075,0 HC 2012 2017 UCON



WA: waiting for authorisation

New hard and lignite firing power plants in authorisation process

(excerpt of VGB database on new power plant projects)

CountryName of

PlantName of

CompanySite of Plant

No. Units

Unit Cap. MW (gr.)

Tot. Cap. MW (el.)

Main Fuel

Project Start (Y)

Startup(Y)

Status

Belgium Antwerpen E.ONAntwerpen Harbour

1 1100,0 1.100,0 HC 2007 2015 WA

Czech Republic

Ledvice 6 CEZ AS Ledvice 1 330,0 330,0 HC 2012 WA

Czech Republic

Ledvice 7 CEZ AS Ledvice 1 330,0 330,0 HC 2012 WA

Czech Republic

Pocerady 1 CEZ AS Pocerady 1 330,0 330,0 HC 2015 WA

Czech Republic

Pocerady 2 CEZ AS Pocerady 1 330,0 330,0 HC 2015 WA

GermanyBassenfleth/ Schwinge

E.ON Stade 1 1100,0 1.100,0 HC 2014 WA

Italy Saline Joniche SEI S.p.A.Montebello Ionico

1 1000,0 1.000,0 HC WA

Italy Porto Tolle ENEL Venice 1 660,0 660,0 HC WA

Poland Opole PGE Opole 1 1800,0 1.800,0 HC 2020 WA

Poland Rybnik EDF Rybnik 1 900,0 900,0 HC 2013 2016 WA

Poland Polnoc Polenergia Rejkowy 2 2000,0 2.000,0 HC 2015 WA

Czech Republic

Not yet decided

E.ON -MUC Most 2 600 1.200,0 LIG 2012 WA

Germany BoAplus RWE Power AG Niederaußem 1 1100,0 1.100,0 LIG 2011 WA

Germany Profen MIBRAG Profen 1 660,0 660,0 LIG 2015 2020 WA



Basics for future energy production:

„Renewables first“

Cost effective production by other sources

(nuclear, coal, biomass, gas – according spec. merit order)

Cost factors to be considered at any time:

Fuel cost

Cost of CO2 certificates

Energy cost (energy trade)

……….



Impacts on energy prices: „feed in tariffs“ for renewable power (wind, photovoltaic,..) (different in member states)

Factors for energy trade:

Duration of contracts (long term/short term) Calculation: average cost // limit costsTrading by exchange markets (sport market/prognosis) ……….


Risks for power production:

Demand dependent production by renewables not possible

Production by e.g. coal as „back up“ in times with low demand and therefore low prices not profitable


► Primary energy demand will increase, worldwide and in Europe

► Coal is a major fuel for energy and steam production

► Operation of coal-fired power plants are influenced by European Directives (IPPC, LCPD, IED) and Decisions which aim in reduced emission into the environment.

► The CO2-reduction aims 20 % by 2020, 40 % by 2030 and

by 80 % by 2050 will result in reduced use óf coal and increase the use of renewables and co-combustion in coal-fired power plants. In addition, the operation conditions of coal-fired power pants will be different.

5 Conclusions


► New coal-fired power plant projects are designed for co-combustion and flexible operation. Most of the power plants under construction are already under fire

► Due to energy trading additional factors for operation of coal-fired power plants to be considered.

► The amount of CCPs in EU15 countries is decreasing. However, the amount of ash produced in EU 28 countries sums up to more than 145 million tonnes.

► Coal will remain a major fuel for energy production.

► Quality aspects and marketing activities have to be considered for the use of CCPs .

5 Conclusions

Documents

Forecast in Power Production and Impact on CCPs in Europe