FORCEBUILD-UPINTHESOUTHCHINASEAWillgrey-zonestrategypaintabrightfuture?

Dr. Ha Anh TuanBien Dong Maritime Institute, The Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam

What’stheproblem?

1.ForceBuild-up:Anoverview

150

8.98 3.48 2.78 4.320

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

China Indonesia Malaysia ThePhilippines Vietnam

ChartTitle

2006

2007

2011

2012

2016

2017

Source:CompilefromTheMilitaryBalance(SIIS)2008,2013,2018

2.Navalbuild-up:Keycomponents

62

82

206

186

3

13

108

24

2

10

37

13

0

1

68

6

8

2

68

27

0 50 100 150 200 250

Submarine

Principalsurfacecombatants

PatrolandCoastalCombats

LogisticsandSupports

Vietnam ThePhilippines Malaysia Indonesia China

3.Navalbuild-up

Other areas:• Force expansion plus force modernization • Artificial island buildings and military equipments (China)• Air-craft carriers buildings (China)• Satellitesystems(Beidu andYaogan – China)• Mobileanti-shipmissilesystemsDongFeng (China)• Aircraftrefueltechnology(China)• Increasingnavalexercisesandpatrol(China)

4.Keyfeatures

• China’s rapid military modernization and expansion.

• China’s naval dominance in the South China Sea.

• China’s increased presence in the SCS.

5.Logicalinference

Increasing risk of encounters at sea between navies

6.RealitySomemajorincidentsonthegroundintheSouthChinaSeainthepastdecades

• 2009ImpeccableIncident (China-US)

• 2011petroleumvesselscablecuttingincidents(China-VN)

• 2012ScarboroughShoalstand-off(China-PLP)

• 2014oil-rigincident(China-VN)

• 2016VesselencounterswithinNatunawater(China-Indonesia).

ØVastmajorityofincidentsintheSouthChinaSeainvolvingChina’sMLEAs.ØChineseMLEAsareincreasinglyusedtoprotectChina’s nationalsovereigntyandsovereignrightsclaims.

71%

29%

Among45majorincidentsintheSCS2010-2016

InvolvingChineseCoastguard

Non-involvingChinesecoastguard

(SamBateman,2016)http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/10/07/cues-and-coast-guards/

7.“Grey-zone”strategy

• “The‘zone’essentiallyrepresentsanoperatingenvironmentinwhichaggressorsuseambiguity,and

leveragenon-attributiontoachievestrategicobjectiveswhilelimitingcounter-actions byothernation

states.”(AbhijitSingh,2018).

8.ChinaMaritimeLawEnforcementAgencies:actual development

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-coast-guard-to-be-absorbed-into-pla/

Expansionofcoastguardin

regionalcountries

Prediction

• TheuseofCoastGuardsandotherMLEAswillbecomeevenmorepopularinthecomingyears.

Sowhat?

1.InternationalLawsconcerningMLEAs• UNCLOS 1982:

• A coastal state is entitled certain rights in certain bodies of water around it.

• Example:IntheEEZ,thecoastalstatehassovereignrightsforthepurposeofexploringandexploiting,conservingandmanagingthenaturalresources(Article56).

• In order to exercise these sovereign rights, state’s MLEAs is used.ØExample:Onhotpursuit:“ThehotpursuitofaforeignshipmaybeundertakenwhenthecompetentauthoritiesofthecoastalStatehavegoodreasontobelievethattheshiphasviolatedthelawsandregulationsofthatState.”(Article111).

Commonunderstanding

TheuseofMLEAsistoavoidescalationofconflicts

MalaysiaMaritimeLawEnforcementAgencies

• MalaysianMaritimeEnforcementAgencyActNo.633of2004.

• “...(a) toenforcelawandorderunderanyfederallaw...”• “...thefunctionsoftheAgencyshallbeperformedwithintheMalaysianMaritimeZone.”

PhilippinesMaritimeLawEnforcementAgencies

http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/1967/08aug/19670804-RA-5173-FM.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2qGLuiOgNEI07rtbvvDvnXQKzkTUfOxKk-7Dg3jgDGohjtLmfvuzgjCF0

PhilippinesMaritimeLawEnforcementAgencies

http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/1967/08aug/19670804-RA-5173-FM.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2qGLuiOgNEI07rtbvvDvnXQKzkTUfOxKk-7Dg3jgDGohjtLmfvuzgjCF0

RepublicActNo.9993(knownasthe"PhilippinesCoastGuardLawof2009”)

Structure:UnderMinistryofDepartmentofTransportationandCommunication

VietnamMaritimeLawEnforcementAgencies

• 1998OrdinanceNo.03/2008/PL-UBTVQHonVietnamCoastGuard

• 2018DraftofLawonVietnameseCoastGuard• VCGoperatesinsideVietnamesewaters (article11).• Hastherighttochase,capture(peopleandships),useweaponstoenforcelaw (article10).

https://www.mmea.gov.my/eng/index.php/en/

IndonesianCoastGuard(Bakamla)

• LawNo.32/2014onmaritimeaffairs• TheBAKAMLAisacivilagencyanditsmandateistoenforcethelawatsea.

https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/imps-news/adecs-2018-indonesian-coast-guard-growth-mode/

ChinaMaritimeLawEnforcementAgencies

• Structure:• Before2013:FisheriesLawEnforcementCommand(FLEC)1958;ChinaMaritimeSurveillance(CMS)1998;

• 2013-2018:ChinaCoastguard(CCGA)underStateOceanicAdministration• 2018-:CCGAunderChinaMilitaryCommission

• Mission:• Before2013:Dualleadership(SOAandMPS).Administrativeandpolicingduties

• Functions:• ProtectChinas’maritimerights(alongwithPLAandMSA)

NavyandMLEAsincomparison

Navy MLEAs

Military Non-militaryCivilian

Morepowerfulweapons Lesspowerfulweapons

Foreignenemy(“professional”combatants) Civilianlawoffenders

Ruleofengagement(UnintendedEncounter)

Ruleenforcement(IntendedEncounter,hot pursuit doctrine)

Defendingnationalsovereignty Protectingdomesticandinternationallaw(takesovereigntyandsovereignrightsintheareaasgiven)

IstheuseofMLEAsindisputesanefforttoprevent escalationofconflict?

Whatcanwedo?

Existingmechanisms

• HACGAM(HeadsofAsian-CoastGuardMeeting)established2004.• searchandrescue,• environmentalprotection,• preventingandcontrollingunlawfulactsatsea• capacitybuilding

• CUESadoptedin2014byNavies• Extended-CUES?• CUES-likedocumentsapplicabletoCoastGuard?

• ASEANMaritimeCoastGuards Forum

Ø NoofficialcooperationofcoastguardsofASEANcountriesandChina

Continuingefforts

• HD’sCOPs

Initiative

Initiative

Initiative