For Spaafi

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1. Why You Should Visit Cemeteries: Survivorship Biasa. You should focus on the successful if you wish to become

successful.b. Case Study from World War II: urin! World War II military

en!ineers wanted to "!ure out how to ma#e bomber planes

safer for the pilots who ris#ed their lives to $y them. When theen!ineers loo#ed at returned planes% they saw that bulletdama!e clustered in three main places: the win!s% the body%and the rear !unner. &hese% then% were the places theysu!!ested be reinforced with e'tra armor.

i. (ortunately for the army% it had the help of a statisticiannamed )braham Wald. &hese planes% Wald pointed out%had survived bein! hit. What they showed was that aplane could !et shot multiple times in the win!s% body%and rear !unner and still mana!e to $y. It was the rest

of the plane that needed reinforcement.c. &he media is not interested in di!!in! around in the!raveyards of the unsuccessful.

d. In daily life% because triumph is made more visible thanfailure% you systematically overestimate your chances of succeedin!.

i. Behind every popular author you can "nd a hundredother writers whose boo#s will never sell. Behind themare another hundred who haven*t found publishers.Behind them are yet another hundred whose un"nishedmanuscripts !ather dust in drawers. )nd behind each

one of these are a hundred people who dream of% oneday% writin! a boo#.

ii. &he same !oes for photo!raphers% entrepreneurs%artists% athletes% architects% +obel ,ri-e winners%television presenters% and beauty ueens.

/. Why You See Shapes in the Clouds: Clusterin! Illusiona. In 102% Swedish opera sin!er (riedrich 3or!ensen bou!ht a

tape player to record his vocals. When he listened bac# to therecordin!% he heard stran!e noises throu!hout% whispers thatsounded li#e supernatural messa!es. ) few years later% he

recorded birdson!. &his time% he heard the voice of hisdeceased mother in the bac#!round whisperin! to him: 4(ried%my little (ried% can you hear me5 It*s 6ammy.* &hat did it. 3or!ensen turned his life around and devoted himself tocommunicatin! with the deceased via tape recordin!s.

b. In 1007% iane uyser from (lorida also had an otherworldlyencounter. )fter bitin! into a slice of toast and placin! it bac#



down on the plate% she noticed the face of the Vir!in 6ary init.

c. In 1028% a woman from +ew 6e'ico had a similar e'perience.9er tortilla*s blac#ened spots resembled 3esus* face.

d. &wo years earlier% in 102% the orbiter of the Vi#in! Spacecraft

had photo!raphed a roc# formation that% from hi!h above%loo#ed li#e a human face. &he 4(ace on 6ars* made headlinesaround the world.

e. &he human brain see#s patterns and rules. In fact% it ta#es itone step further: If it "nds no familiar patters% it simplyinvents some.

f. o'''o'''o''ooo'oo''oo: psycholo!y professor &homas;ilovich interviewed hundreds of people for an answer.;ilovich e'plained that it is uite possible to roll the samenumber four times in a row% which mysti"es many people.

<. If (ifty 6illion ,eople Say Somethin! (oolish% It is Still (oolish: Social,roof

a. Social proof % sometimes rou!hly termed the herd instinct%dictates that individuals feel they are behavin! correctly whenthey act the same as other people.

i. It e'ists in fashion% mana!ement techniues% hobbies%reli!ion and diets. It can paralyse whole cultures% suchas when sects commit collective suicide.

ii. Case study about female and male.iii. Why do we act li#e this5 &his behaviour has an

evolutionary ori!in.

iv. Social proof is also of value. (or e'ample% if you "ndyourself hun!ry in a forei!n city and don*t #now a !oodrestaurant% it ma#es sense to pic# the one that*s full of locals. In other words% you copy the locals* behaviour.

v. =ne terrible e'ample of this is the holocaust.vi. Show +iet-sche*s uote.

b. &he Calamity of Conformity: ;roupthin#i. If you ever "nd yourself in a ti!ht% unanimous !roup%

you must spea# your mind% even if your team does notli#e it. >uestion tacit assumptions% even if you ris#e'pulsion from the warm nest. )nd% if you lead a !roup%appoint someone as devil*s advocate. She will not bethe most popular member of the team% but she mi!ht bethe most important.

7. Beware the ?Special Case@: Con"rmation Bias A,art 1a. 'periment: /D7DD5b. 6urder Your arlin!s: Con"rmation Bias A,art /: 9ow does

the Con"rmation Bias aEect our lives5



i. We all have assumptions% dearly held beliefs that arediFcult to uestion: Whether you !o throu!h lifebelievin! that 4people are inherently !ood* or 4peopleare inherently bad*% you will "nd daily proof to supportyour case. Both parties% the philanthropists and the

misanthropes% simply "lter discon"rmin! evidenceAevidence to the contrary and focus instead on the doG!ooders and dictators who support their worldviews.

. Why ?+o ,ain% +o ;ain@ Should Set )larm Bells Hin!in!: &he It*llG;etGWorseGBeforeGItG;etsGBetter (allacy

a. ) few years a!o% I was on vacation in Corsica and fell sic#. &hesymptoms were new to me% and the pain was !rowin! by theday. ventually I decided to see# help at a local clinic. ) youn!doctor be!an to inspect me% proddin! my stomach% !rippin!my shoulders and #nees and then po#in! each vertebra. I

be!an to suspect that he had no idea what my problem was%but I wasn*t really sure so I simply endured the stran!ee'amination. &o si!nal its end% he pulled out his noteboo# andsaid: 4)ntibiotics. &a#e one tablet three times a day. It*ll !etworse before it !ets better.* ;lad that I now had a treatment% Idra!!ed myself bac# to my hotel room with the prescription inhand. &he pain !rew worse and worse Just as the doctor hadpredicted. &he doctor must have #nown what was wron! withme after all. But% when the pain hadn*t subsided after threedays% I called him. 4Increase the dose to "ve times a day. It*s!oin! to hurt for a while more%* he said. )fter two more daysof a!ony% I "nally called the international air ambulance. &heSwiss doctor dia!nosed appendicitis and operated on meimmediately. 4Why did you wait so lon!5* he as#ed me afterthe sur!ery.

b. Ket*s ta#e another e'ample: a C= is at his wits* end. Salesare in the toilet% the salespeople are unmotivated% and themar#etin! campai!n has sun# without a trace. In hisdesperation% he hires a consultant. (or L%MMM a day% this mananalyses the company and comes bac# with his "ndin!s: 4Yoursales department has no vision% and your brand isn*t

positioned clearly. It*s a tric#y situation. I can "' it for you but not overni!ht. &he measures will reuire sensitivity% andmost li#ely% sales will fall further before thin!s improve.* &heC= hires the consultant. ) year later% sales fall% and the samethin! happens the ne't year. )!ain and a!ain% the consultantstresses that the company*s pro!ress corresponds closely to



his prediction. )s sales continue their slump in the third year%the C= "res the consultant.

c. &he obvious problem of the fallacy: If the problem continuesto worsen% the prediction is con"rmed. If the situationimproves une'pectedly% the customer is happy and the e'pert

can attribute it to his prowess. ither way he wins.d. &he best evidence of this strate!y*s success is Christianity: its

literal followers believe that before we can e'perience heavenon earth% the world must be destroyed. isasters% $oods% "res%death they are all part of the lar!er plan and must ta#eplace. Believers will view any deterioration of the situation ascon"rmation of the prophecy% and any improvement as a !iftfrom ;od.

e. &hou!h situations do e'ist where thin!s "rst dip% thenimprove.

. +ever 3ud!e a ecision by Its =utcome: =utcome Biasa. ?&he ends Justify the means.@b. We tend to evaluate decisions based on the result rather than

on the decision process: this fallacy is also #nown as thehistorian error Aor hindsight bias.

c. Case Study: ) classic e'ample is the 3apanese attac# on ,earl9arbor. Should the military base have been evacuated or not5(rom today*s perspective: obviously% for there was plenty of evidence that an attac# was imminent. 9owever% only inretrospect do the si!nals appear so clear. )t the time% in 1071%there was a plethora of contradictory si!nals. Some pointed to

an attac#N others did not. &o assess the uality of the decision%we must use the information available at the time% "lterin!out everythin! we #now about it postGattac# Aparticularly thatit did indeed ta#e place.

d. 'periment: you must evaluate the performance of threeheart sur!eons. &o do this% you as# each to carry out a diFcultoperation "ve times. =ver the years% the probability of dyin!from these procedures has stabilised at /MO. With sur!eon )%no one dies. With sur!eon B% one patient dies. With sur!eon C%two die. 9ow do you rate the performance of )% B and C5

i. If you thin# li#e most people% you rate ) the best% B thesecond best% and C the worst. )nd thus you*ve Justfallen for the outcome bias. You can !uess why: thesamples are too small% renderin! the resultsmeanin!less. You can only really Jud!e a sur!eon if you#now somethin! about the "eld% and then carefullymonitor the preparation and e'ecution of the operation.



In other words% you assess the process and not theresult.

e. +ever Jud!e a decision purely by its result% especially whenrandomness or 4e'ternal factors* play a role. ) bad result doesnot automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa. So

rather than tearin! your hair out about a wron! decision% orapplaudin! yourself for one that may have only coincidentallyled to success% remember why you chose what you did. Wereyour reasons rational and understandable5

f. 'amples of hindsight bias:i. )n individual notices that outside% it*s be!innin! to loo#

a little bit !ray. 9e says to himself% I bet that it*s !oin!to rain this afternoon. When it actually does rain% theindividual tells himself that he was certain that it wouldwhen he saw the clouds rollin! in earlier.

ii. When !earin! up to !o campin!% a father says that he Just #nows someone is !oin! to for!et somethin!. Itturns out that his son for!ot his "shin! rod. PI was sureit would happen%P says the father.

iii. &hree friends decide to bet on a horse race. =ne of them brea#s from the other two and chooses a horsewith very low winnin! odds% sayin! that he has a !oodfeelin! about that horse. &he lon! shot ends up winnin!%promptin! the friend to claim he*d been certain of theoutcome.

!. &his bias also has a moral aspect: ?the trolley problem.@

2. Kess Is 6ore: ,arado' of Choicea. Who says that this statement is a truism: ?the more the

merrierQ@5i. Sheldon: ?&hatRs a false euivalency% more does not

eual merry. If there were two thousand people in thisapartment% would we be celebratin!5 +o% weRd besuEocatin!.@

b. I*ve counted and researched: my local !rocery store stoc#s78 varieties of yo!urt% 1<7 types of red wine% 7 diEerentcleanin! products and a !rand total of <M%MMM items. )ma-on%

the Internet boo#seller% has two million titles available.+owadays% people are bombarded with options% such ashundreds of mental disorders% thousands of diEerent careers%even more holiday destinations and an in"nite variety of lifestyles. &here has never been more choice.

c. &hin# youtube searches.d. Yes% abundance ma#es you !iddy% but there is a limit. When it

is e'ceeded% a surfeit of choices destroys uality of life. &he



technical term for this is the paradox of choice.DWhy is thisso5 )ccordin! to Barry Schwart-% a psycholo!ist and whoseboo# is entitled as such:

i. ) lar!e selection leads to inner paralysis.1. &est: a supermar#et set up a stand where

customers could sample twentyGfour varieties of Jelly. &hey could try as many as they li#ed andthen buy them at a discount. &he ne't day% theowners carried out the same e'periment with onlysi' $avours. &he result5 &hey sold ten times more Jelly on day two. Why5 With such a wide ran!e%customers could not come to a decision% so theybou!ht nothin!. &he e'periment was repeatedseveral times with diEerent products. &he resultswere always the same.

ii. ) broader selection leads to poorer decisions.1. If you as# youn! people what is important in a lifepartner% they reel oE all the usual ualities:intelli!ence% !ood manners% warmth% the ability tolisten% a sense of humour and physicalattractiveness. But do they actually ta#e thesecriteria into account when choosin! someone5

/. In the past% a youn! man from a villa!e of avera!esi-e could choose amon! maybe twenty !irls of similar a!e with whom he went to school. 9e #newtheir families and vice versa% leadin! to a decision

based on several wellG#nown attributes.<. +owadays% in the era of online datin!% millions of

potential partners are at our disposal. It has beenproven that the stress caused by this mindGbo!!lin! variety is so lar!e that the male brainreduces the decision to one sin!le criterion:physical attractiveness. &he conseuences of thisselection process you already #nowDperhapseven from personal e'perience.

iii. Kar!e selection leads to discontent.

1. 9ow can you be sure you are ma#in! the ri!htchoice when /MM options surround and confoundyou5 &he answer is: you cannot. &he more choiceyou have% the more unsure and thereforedissatis"ed you are afterward.

e. So% what can you do5i. &hin# carefully about what you want before you inspect

e'istin! oEers.



ii. Write down these criteria and stic# to them ri!idly. A)lso%realise that you can never ma#e a perfect decision.)imin! for this% !iven the $ood of possibilities% is a formof irrational perfectionism.

iii. Kearn to love a ?!ood@ choice. A=nly the best will do5 In

this a!e of unlimited variety% rather the opposite is true:?!ood enou!h@ is the new optimum.

8. Kive ach ay as If It Were Your KastDbut =nly on Sundays:9yperbolic iscountin!

a. 3ust ima!ine what would happen if you followed it to theletter: you would no lon!er brush your teeth% wash your hair%clean the apartment% turn up for wor#% pay the bills. In notime% you would be bro#e% sic# and perhaps even behind bars.

b. )nd yet% its meanin! is inherently noble. It e'presses a deeplon!in!% a desire for immediacy. We place hu!e value on

immediacyDmuch more than is Justi"able.c. 4nJoy each day to the fullest and don*t worry abouttomorrow* is simply not a smart way to live.

d. &hou!ht 'periment A1: Would you rather receive L1%MMM in ayear or L1%1MM in a year and a month5 6ost people will opt forthe lar!er sum in thirteen months where else will you "nd amonthly interest rate of 1MO Aor 1/MO per annumQ. ) wisechoice% since the interest will compensate you !enerously forany ris#s you face by waitin! the e'tra few wee#s.

e. &hou!ht 'periment A/: Would you prefer L1%MMM today cashon the table or L1%1MM in a month5 If you thin# li#e most

people% you*ll ta#e the L1%MMM strai!ht away. &his is ama-in!.In both cases% if you hold out for Just a month lon!er% you !etL1MM more.

f. &he introduction of 4now* causes us to ma#e inconsistentdecisions. Science calls this phenomenon hyperbolic

discounting.i. ,ut plainly% the closer a reward is% the hi!her our

4emotional interest rate* rises and the more we arewillin! to !ive up in e'chan!e for it.

ii. 9yperbolic discountin!% the fact that immediacy

ma!neti-es us% is a remnant of our animal past.1. )nimals will never turn down an instant reward inorder to attain more in the future. You can trainrats as much as you li#eN they*re never !oin! to!ive up a piece of cheese today to !et two piecestomorrow.

iii. Case study: In the Ms% Walter 6ischel conducted afamous e'periment on delayed !rati"cation. You can



"nd a wonderful video of this on You&ube by typin! in4marshmallow e'periment*. In it% a !roup of fourGyearGolds were each !iven a marshmallow. &hey could eithereat it strai!ht away or wait a couple of minutes andreceive a second. )ma-in!ly% very few children could

wait. ven more ama-in!ly% 6ischel found that thecapacity for delayed !rati"cation is a reliable indicatorof future career success. ,atience is indeed a virtue.

!. &hou!h instantaneous reward is incredibly temptin!%hyperbolic discountin! is still a $aw. &he more power we !ainover our impulses% the better we can avoid this trap. &he lesspower we have over our impulses for e'ample when we areunder the in$uence of alcohol the more susceptible we are.

h. Viewed from the other side% if you sell consumer products%!ive customers the option of !ettin! their hands on the items

strai!ht away. Some people will be willin! to pay e'tra Just sothey don*t have to wait. )ma-on ma#es a bundle from this: ahealthy chun# of the ne'tGday delivery surchar!e !oes directlyinto its coEers.

i. 4Kive each day as if it were your last* is a !ood idea once awee#.

0. Be Your =wn 9eretic: Introspection Illusion A6isconception: You#now why you li#e the thin!s you li#e and feel the way you feel.

a. &a#e any idea you are 1MMO sure of% perhaps that !old will riseover the ne't "ve years. ,erhaps that ;od e'ists. ,erhaps thatyour dentist is overchar!in! you. Whatever the belief% write it

down in one sentence. o you believe yourself5b. I bet you consider your conviction more valid than Bruce*s%

ri!ht5 9ere*s why: yours is an internal observation% whereasBruce*s is e'ternal. Crudely put% you can pee# into your ownsoul% but not into his.

c. But how pure and honest is internal re$ection5i. &he Swedish psycholo!ist ,etter 3ohannson allowed test

subJects to !limpse two portrait photos of randompeople and choose which face was more attractive. &hen he showed them the preferred photo up close and

as#ed them to describe the most attractive features.9owever% with a slei!ht of hand% he switched thepictures. 6ost participants failed to notice andproceeded to Justify% in detail% why they favoured theima!e. &he results of the study: introspection is notreliable. When we soulGsearch% we contrive the "ndin!s.



d. &he belief that re$ection leads to truth or accuracy is calledthe introspection illusion. &his is more than sophistry. Becausewe are so con"dent of our beliefs% we e'perience threereactions when someone fails to share our views.

i. Hesponse 1: )ssumption of i!norance. &he other party

clearly lac#s the necessary information. If he #new whatyou #now% he would be of the same opinion. ,oliticalactivists thin# this way: they believe they can win othersover throu!h enli!htenment.

ii. Heaction /: )ssumption of idiocy. &he other person hasthe necessary information% but his mind isunderdeveloped. 9e cannot draw the obviousconclusions. In other words% he*s a moron. &his reactionis particularly popular with bureaucrats who want toprotect 4stupid* consumers from themselves.

iii. Hesponse <: )ssumption of malice. Your counterpart hasthe necessary information he even understands thedebate but he is deliberately confrontational. 9e hasevil intentions. &his is how many reli!ious leaders andfollowers treat disbelievers: if they don*t a!ree% theymust be servants of the devilQ

1M. isre!ard the Brand +ew: +eomaniaa. 9ave you ever wondered what the future would loo# life5 But

han! on a second. &a#e a loo# around.i. You*re sittin! in a chair% an invention from ancient

!ypt.

ii. You wear pants% developed about %MMM years a!o andadapted by ;ermanic tribes around 2M B.C.

iii. &he idea behind your leather shoes comes from the lastice a!e.

iv. Your boo#shelves are made of wood% one of the oldestbuildin! materials in the world.

v. )t dinnertime% you use a for#% a wellG#nown 4#iller app*from Homan times% to shovel chun#s of dead animalsand plants into your mouths.

vi. 9ow about your watch5

vii. +othin! has chan!ed.b. So% how will the world loo# in "fty years5 In his boo# Antifragile% +assim &aleb !ives us a clue: assume that most of the technolo!y that has e'isted for the past "fty years willserve us for another halfGcentury. )nd assume that recenttechnolo!y will be pass in a few years* time. Why5

i. &hin# of these inventions as if they were species:whatever has held its own throu!hout centuries of



innovation will probably continue to do so in the future%too.

ii. =ld technolo!y has proven itselfN it possesses aninherent lo!ic even if we do not always understand it.

iii. If somethin! has endured for epochs% it must be worth

its salt.iv. (ifty years into the future will loo# a lot li#e today. =f

course% you will witness the birth of many $ashy!ad!ets and ma!ic contraptions. But most will be shortGlived.

c. Why do we want new thin!s5 &aleb traces this tendency bac#to the neomania pitfall: the mania for all thin!s shiny andnew.

i. In the past% I sympathised with soGcalled 4earlyadopters*% the breed of people who cannot survivewithout the latest i,hone. I thou!ht they were ahead of their time. +ow I re!ard them as irrational and suEerin!from a #ind of sic#ness: neomania.

11. Why ,ropa!anda Wor#s: Sleeper Eecta. urin! World War II% every nation produced propa!anda

movies. &hese were devised to "ll the population% especiallysoldiers% with enthusiasm for their country and% if necessary%to bolster them to lay down their lives.

i. &he result was disappointin!: they did not intensify theprivates* enthusiasm for war in the sli!htest.

ii. Was it because they were poorly made5 9ardly. Hather%

the soldiers were aware that the movies werepropa!anda% which discredited their messa!e evenbefore they were rollin!. ven if the movie ar!ued apoint reasonably or mana!ed to stir the audience% itdidn*t matterN its content was deemed hollow from theoutset and dismissed.

iii. +ine wee#s later% somethin! une'pected happened. &hepsycholo!ists measured the soldiers* attitudes a secondtime. &he result: whoever had seen the moviee'pressed much more support for the war than those

who had not viewed it.b. &he scientists were baTed% especially since they #new that anar!ument*s persuasiveness decreased over time.

i. )ma-in!ly% Just the opposite is true for propa!anda. If itstri#es a chord with someone% this in$uence will onlyincrease over time. Why5



ii. ,sycholo!ist Carl 9ovland% who led the study for the wardepartment% named this phenomenon the sleeper

eect .iii. &o date% the best e'planation is that% in our memories%

the source of the ar!ument fades faster than the

ar!ument.iv. In other words% your brain uic#ly for!ets where the

information came from Ae.!. from the department of propa!anda.

v. 6eanwhile% the messa!e itself Ai.e.% war is necessaryand noble fades only slowly or even endures. &herefore% any #nowled!e that stems from anuntrustworthy source !ains credibility over time. &hediscreditin! force melts away faster than the messa!edoes.

c. 'amples of propa!anda: electioneerin! for undecided voters%advertisements Afallacies.d. 9ow can you thwart the sleeper eect 5

i. on*t accept any unsolicited advice% even if it seemswell meant. oin! so% you protect yourself to a certainde!ree from manipulation.

ii. )void adGcontaminated sources li#e the pla!ue. 9owfortunate we are that boo#s are Astill adGfreeQ

iii. &ry to remember the source of every ar!ument youencounter. Whose opinions are these5 )nd why do theythin# that way5 ,robe the issue li#e an investi!ator

would: cui bono5 Who bene"ts5

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