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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Football betting odds
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze
ENAC, IENAC15 SITA-PREV
April 7, 2017
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
1 IntroductionContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
2 First model : simultaneousHome Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
3 Second model : hybridHome Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
4 Third model : sequentialDraw odd using Away �tted oddsHome odd using the new Draw �tted odds
5 Conclusion
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
How to bet ?
Table � A game on BWin website
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
Our sample
Teams
p = 7 teams
Caen, Lyon, Marseille, Monaco, Paris, Saint-Etienne, Toulouse
Number of observations
n = 2 ∗ ×∑p−1
k=1 k = 2× p(p−1)2
= p(p − 1) = 7× 6 = 42
So we focused on 42 games of the 2015-2016 Ligue 1 season.
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
BWin odds : BWH
Graph � Histogram and stats for home odds.
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
BWin odds : BWA
Graph � Histogram and stats for away odds.
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
BWin odds : BWD
Graph � Histogram and stats for draw odds.
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
Delta variables
Formula used
∆ = ∆home −∆away
Delta variables
DELTAFIFA,DELTAFORM,DELTAPOINTS ,DELTARANK ,
DELTAAFTER,DELTABEFORE
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
LAST10HOME / LAST10DRAW / LAST10AWAY
Formula used
Last10(Home/Draw/Away) =10∑k=1
k
10× δk,outcome
where outcome = win of the current home team / draw / win ofthe current away team.
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
ContextDependant variablesExplanatory variables
Other variables
Strictness of the referee
Strictness =NYellowCards + 4× NRedCards
Ngames
Other variables
FIELDGRADE ,TEMPERATURE ,PACKING ,DISTANCE
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Simultaneous model
B̂WH | B̂WD | B̂WA
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Home Win odd : estimation
Number of observations and variables
n= 42 and k=13
The linear equation of the model
B̂WH = β̂0 + β̂1DELTAFIFA + β̂2DELTAFORM + β̂3DELTAPOINTS
+ β̂4DELTARANK + β̂5DELTAAFTER + β̂6DELTABEFORE
+ β̂7LAST10HOME + β̂8STRICTNESS + β̂9FIELDGRADE
+ β̂10TEMPERATURE + β̂11PACKING + β̂12DISTANCE
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Home Win odd : marginal e�ects
Variable Expected e�ect Real e�ect Signi�cant
DeltaFifa - - Yes
DeltaForm - - Yes
DeltaPoints - - Yes
DeltaRank + - Yes
DeltaAfter - - Yes
DeltaBefore - - No
Last10Home - - Yes
Strictness - - No
FieldGrade ? + Yes
Temperature ? 0 No
Packing - 0 No
Distance - 0 No
Table � Marginal e�ects tableYll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Home Win odd : estimation results
Table � eqBWH_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Home Win odd : actual and �tted BWH
Graph � eqBWH_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Home Win odd : biggest errors
Toulouse - Paris Saint-Etienne - Paris Paris - Caen
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Away Win odd : estimation
Number of observations and variables
n= 42 and k=13
The linear equation of the model
B̂WA = β̂0 + β̂1DELTAFIFA + β̂2DELTAFORM + β̂3DELTAPOINTS
+ β̂4DELTARANK + β̂5DELTAAFTER + β̂6DELTABEFORE
+ β̂7LAST10AWAY + β̂8STRICTNESS + β̂9FIELDGRADE
+ β̂10TEMPERATURE + β̂11PACKING + β̂12DISTANCE
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Away Win odd : marginal e�ects
Variable Expected e�ect Real e�ect Signi�cant
DeltaFifa + + Yes
DeltaForm + + Yes
DeltaPoints + + No
DeltaRank - + No
DeltaAfter + + No
DeltaBefore + + No
Last10Away - - No
Strictness ? - No
FieldGrade ? + Yes
Temperature ? - No
Packing ? + Yes
Distance ? 0 No
Table � Marginal e�ects tableYll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Away Win odd : estimation results
Table � eqBWA_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Away Win odd : actual and �tted BWA
Graph � eqBWA_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Draw odd : estimation
Number of observations and variables
n= 42 and k=13
The linear equation of the model
B̂WD = β̂0 + β̂1DELTAFIFA + β̂2DELTAFORM + β̂3DELTAPOINTS
+ β̂4DELTARANK + β̂5DELTAAFTER + β̂6DELTABEFORE
+ β̂7LAST10DRAW + β̂8STRICTNESS + β̂9FIELDGRADE
+ β̂10TEMPERATURE + β̂11PACKING + β̂12DISTANCE
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Draw odd : estimation results
Table � eqBWD01_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Draw odd : actual and �tted BWD
Graph � eqBWD01_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Draw odd : new estimation
Number of observations and variables
n= 42 and k=13
The new linear equation of the model
B̂WD = β̂0 + β̂1DELTAFIFA2 + β̂2DELTAFORM
2 + β̂3DELTAPOINTS2
+ β̂4DELTARANK2 + β̂5DELTAAFTER
2 + β̂6DELTABEFORE2
+ β̂7LAST10DRAW + β̂8STRICTNESS + β̂9FIELDGRADE
+ β̂10TEMPERATURE + β̂11PACKING + β̂12DISTANCE
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Draw odd : new estimation results
Table � eqBWD02_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Draw odd : actual and new �tted BWD
Graph � eqBWD02_�rst_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win oddAway win oddDraw oddTests
Tests : normality of the errors
BWH BWD BWA
R2 0.76 0.82 0.81
Adjusted R2 0.66 0.69 0.73
JB = n−kn
JBE 9.44 1.19 0.37
χ20.95(2) 5.99 5.99 5.99
Reject normality Yes No No
Table � normality tests results
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
Hybrid model
B̂WA B̂WD↘ ↙B̂WH
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
Home Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
Table � eqBWH_third_model Table � Wald_�tted_coe�s
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
Wald tests on Away win and Draw �tted coe�cients
Table � Wald_BWAF_coe� Table � Wald_BWDF_coe�
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Home Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
Home Win odd using Draw and Away �tted odds
Graph � eqBWH_second_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Draw odd using Away �tted oddsHome odd using the new Draw �tted odds
Sequential model
B̂WA −→ B̂WD −→ B̂WH
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Draw odd using Away �tted oddsHome odd using the new Draw �tted odds
Draw odd using Away �tted odds
Table � eqBWD_third_model Table � Wald_BWAF_coe�
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Draw odd using Away �tted oddsHome odd using the new Draw �tted odds
Draw odd using the Away �tted odds
Graph � eqBWD_third_modelYll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Draw odd using Away �tted oddsHome odd using the new Draw �tted odds
Home Win odd using new Draw �tted odds
Table � eqBWH_third_model Table � Wald_BWDF_coe�
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Draw odd using Away �tted oddsHome odd using the new Draw �tted odds
Home odd using the new Draw �tted odds
Graph � eqBWH_third_model
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Tests : normality of the errors
simultaneous hybrid sequential
BWH BWD BWA BWH BWD BWA BWH BWD BWA
R2 0.76 0.67 0.81 0.85 0.67 0.81 0.87 0.79 0.81Adjusted R2 0.66 0.53 0.73 0.77 0.53 0.73 0.81 0.70 0.73
JB 9.44 1.19 0.37 0.26 1.19 0.37 0.19 0.16 0.37χ20.95(2) 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99
Rejectnormality
Yes No No No No No No No No
Table � normality tests results
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds
Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : simultaneousSecond model : hybrid
Third model : sequentialConclusion
Football-data. www.football-data.co.uk.
LFP. www.lfp.fr.
SoFIFA. so�fa.com.
Fussbal WettPoint. fussball.wettpoint.com.
Soccer Punter. www.soccerpunter.com.
Distance between two cities. www.distance2villes.com.
Weather records. www.historique-meteo.net.
BWin. sports.bwin.fr.
Yll Mehmeti, Hugo Met and Kevin Turatsinze Football betting odds