Food Security to 2040

What’s coming down the track?

John IngramFood Systems Programme Leader

Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)

… is universally applicable… is more than food production… is underpinned by food systems

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

•Affordability•Allocation•Preference

•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

•Production•Distribution•Exchange

… ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security

“… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries

Example contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging

food

Distributing & Retailing

food

Consuming food

Climate change

N cycle

P cycle

Fresh water use

Biodiversity loss

Atmos.aerosols

Chemical pollution

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

Example contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging

food

Distributing & Retailing

food

Consuming food

Climate change

GHGs, albedo

Factory emissions

Emissions from transport and cold chain

GHGs from cooking

N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs

Factory effluent NOx from transport

Waste

P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste

Fresh water use

Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling

Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning

Biodiversity loss

Deforestation, soils, fishing

Paper/cardMetal mining

Invasive spp Consumer choices

Atmos.aerosols

Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking

Chemical pollution

Pesticides Factory effluent Transport emissions

Cooking, cleaning

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

?

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

FOOD AVAILABILITY• Production

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

?

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY• Production• Distribution• Exchange

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability

Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up

Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in UK, but 90% cost of chapati in India

Extreme weather also impacts food storage …

… and food distribution …

• Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage

• Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure

• Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms

• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves.

… and food safety.

Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

BackgroundPlanetary Boundary concerns are clear

But what’s coming down the track for food security?

http://faostat3.fao.org

Prevalence of undernourishment% of world population

However, …~ 1 billion people still hungry

Asia & Pac~ 525mSSA

~ 225m

Developed~ 15m

LAC~ 40m

“Vitamin D deficiency:thought to affectat least half the UK’swhite population, up to 90% of themulti-ethnic populationand a quarter of children”

(Dec, 2012)

~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”

And food systems are also ‘failing’a further ~2.5 billion of us!

Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013

Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese.

Australia: 60% of all adults are overweight or obese.

England: 19% of Yr 6 children obese & 14% overweight.

Shanghai: Over 200,000 (14%) children are obese

Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition:the ‘new normal’

“Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for granted.”

International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.

Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs

currently ~ 3 billion

Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)

currently >2.5 billion

Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …

=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm

Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=> Consumption by Sub-populations

Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs

currently ~ 3 billion

Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security

Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)

currently >2.5 billion

CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

Soc

ial,

Pol

itica

l, B

usin

ess,

and

Bio

phys

ical

En

viro

nmen

ts

World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.

2013: 7.2 billion2025: 8.1 billion2050: 9.6 billion2100: 10.9 billion

Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!

Looking ahead$6,000 – $30,000

Dietary energy supply increasesas incomes rise …

… leading to increases in consumption.(kcal/person/day)

Looking ahead ...

“unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years

time”

1

2250

- Too much - -- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

(indicative; not to scale)

2 3 4 5 76 8 109

2040

2015

2025

kcal

/per

son/

day

cons

umpti

on

------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount --------------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---

Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ----

2000

The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire

Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive

Calorie consumption

Annual UK NHS spend on diabetes alone increases from £10b to £17b over the next 25 years

Environmental Changewill clearly affect food security

But how will this interact withSocioeconomic Change?

DRIVERInteractions

SocioeconomicDRIVERSChanges in:

Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context,

Cultural contextScience & Technology

EnvironmentalDRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity

Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. nutrition, business, political stability

Food Utilisation

Food Access

Food Availability

Food Security

Need to consider drivers and feedbacks for food system ‘sustainability’ anlayses

Classic Concept Food System Concept

Social Nutritional

Environmental Environmental

Economic Enterprise

Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems

“Sustainable” “Environmental” (only)

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …

=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm

PRODUCERS

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition SecurityHypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in food

system and world view.

Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms,

…

=> Consumption by Sub-populations

CONSUMERS

Nutritional Environment Enterprise0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GoalProducers

Nutritional Environment Enterprise0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GoalValue Chain

Nutritional Environment Enterprise0

102030405060708090

GoalConsumers

?