Bruce Campbell, Director

CGIAR Program on Climate Change,

Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Food Security Challenge in the Context of

Climate Change

1. The global challenges

2. Looking for solutions

3. Conclusions

Outline

Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and

Climate Change

• “Business as usual in our globally

interconnected food system will not

bring us food security and environmental

sustainability”

• “The window of opportunity to avert a

humanitarian, environmental and climate

crisis is rapidly closing”

Beddington et al. (2012) Science 335: 289-290 www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission

Food security challenge

In 15 years there will be another billion

people to feed

A billion people go hungry

Another billion suffer nutrient deficiencies

Another billion over-consume

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8 9 11

Wealth (log per capita GNP) IFPRI, FAO, ILRI: Livestock to 2020

10

Major shifts in diet as the world

gets wealthier

Meat consumption

(log per capita)

100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050

Tilman et al 2011

Proc. National Academy Science

with current trajectories of

diets & populations

Adaptation challenge

To 2090, taking 14

climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science

>20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Food prices are likely to increase… %

price

incre

ase

20

10

-20

50

Nelson et al., 2010

Maize Rice Wheat

% p

rice

in

cre

ase

20

10

-20

50

Climate change will add

greatly to price increases…

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI

Maize Rice Wheat

Impact of weather shocks

Oxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)

Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008)

% Yield impact

for wheat

Changes in growing season temperature

Lobell et al (2011)

China

India

US

Russia

France

Global

Weather catastrophes

Overall losses Insured losses

US$ billion (2010 values)

Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE

Environmental challenge

Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

19-29% global

GHGs from food

systems

48

23

15

16

11

2 6

China UK

686

99

48

59

40

18

393

Agriculture

Transport & packaging

Primary & secondary processing

Retail & catering

Domestic food management

Waste disposal

Fertilizer manufacture

Vermeulen et al. 2012 (UK data from Garnett 2011) Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

80-86% of GHGs from food systems come from

agriculture

0,0

500,0

1000,0

1500,0

2000,0

2500,0

3000,0

3500,0

USA & Canada Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa China South and Southeast Asia

Other, largely burning

Rice cultivation

Manure management

Enteric fermentation

Agricultural soils

Indirect emissions

Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

Emissions by

agricultural activity

Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)

Global

freshwater

use Change in land

use

Biodiversity

loss

Phosphorous

cycle

Nitrogen

cycle

Ocean

acidification

Climate

change

Safe

operating

space

Current

status

Role of

Agriculture

2) Looking for

solutions

• Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and food

systems.

• Support the inclusion of agricultural

issues in climate change policies,

and of climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

• Commit to partnerships, data

availability, cross-center

cooperation, and making an

impact from global to local levels.

The CCAFS Framework

Adapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and

policies for:

1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate

Change

2. Adaptation through Managing

Climate Risk

3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved

Environmental

Health Improved

Rural

Livelihoods

Improved

Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity

in agricultural, natural

resource management, and

food systems

4. Integration for Decision Making

• Linking Knowledge with Action

• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis

and Planning

• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

A Regional Approach:

Some examples from CCAFS in our

quest for solutions

1. Ensuring that the research is user driven

2. New approaches to partnership and

collaboration

3. Focusing on women farmers

4. Farms of the future

5. Breeding for 2030 climates

6. Scaling up climate information services

7. Measuring GHGs in smallholder systems

8. Incentives for smallholder mitigation

9. Working with global policy makers

10.Regional scenarios

1. User-driven agendas: East Africa

Regional Learning Partnership Platform launched in April,

2011

Participatory action research

across 5 sites

3 National workshops -

Setting policy and research

priorities

2. Partnership/collaboration: the baseline

•Household, village and organisational

•36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households in 12 countries and 3 regions

•Better understanding of local and regional differences to guide selection of

best-bet technologies and institutional options

• Clarifies social differentiation of access to natural resources and

infrastructure through participatory interpretation of satellite imagery

•Formal baseline for future program assessment

http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-

surveys

Dataverse: http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu

• More than 20 partners

• Six CGIAR organisations

• Open access data six months after

field collection

Mo

nth

s o

f fo

od

sh

ort

ag

e p

er

yr

Rainfall, food shortages, enterprise diversity …

Rufino et al. (2012)

How far can “adaptation” go in such systems – when will

other livelihood strategies be needed under particular

scenarios?

Then, what are the implications for GHG emissions?

3. Focussing on women farmers

• Climate-related shocks have had much greater

negative impacts on women than men

• Women have less access to climate information than

men

• Women crucial for food security – when have more

power, access and earnings, then more income

allocated to food, child nutrition and education

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/

Farms of the future The Analogue tool

4. Farms of the future

Run Analogues Protocol – Beora (Nepal) Farms of the future Journey to Beora’s plausible futures

Blog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/

Changes in Beans Suitability

• Average global area of suitability for growing beans may be

reduced by 6.6% by 2020

• But wide range of change in suitability across regions.

5. Breeding for 2030 climates

• Breeding drought resistance into bean

– 3.9 million ha of current bean area more suitable

– 6.7 million ha currently not suitable would be

suitable

• Breeding heat tolerance into bean

– 7.2 million ha of current bean area more suitable

– Increase highly suitable areas by some 54%

Potential breeding strategies

http://www.agtrials

.org:8080/

20 crops

2483 trials

Agtrials: Assembling public data in a common portal

•Calibrates and validates crop models

•Indicates adaptation options: Genetic improvement, on-farm management, etc.

•Improves access to technology transfer options

• Climate information to

farmers in Mali

• National Met Service,

WMO, ACMAD

• Forecasts provided for

three‐days, ten‐days,

and seasonal (inc. crop

health...)

• Major increases in

yields for participating

farmers

6. Scaling up climate information services

• Learning lessons from Mali agri-met services

• South-South learning

• Scaling up across the Sahel

(Kitale – Kenya Ag. C Project)

37

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

550 000

600 000

Trees - biomass Trees - SOC Residue management -

SOC

Composting - SOC

ABMS/ SALM Methodology

EX-ACT (project values)

EX-ACT (default values)

Cool Farm Tool

tCO2

Seebauer 2012

7. Measuring GHGs in smallholder systems

CP

Plot

Landscapes

Farming systems

Scale and boundaries

Linking to

yields and

food

security

Mixed production systems

Management

& activity data

Knowledge generation &

information exchange

ICRAF, ILRI, IRRI, FAO, University of Hohenheim, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural

Greenhouse Gasses

Measurement equipment

Developing a shared protocol for GHG

emissions

Geographic Databases

GHG & Ecosystem Service Markets

Inventories

Remote Sensing Data Models

Measurement Networks

Policy Assessments

Climate, food and farming

research network (CLIFF)

• Call for proposals

• PhD research grants on climate

change mitigation in smallholder

agriculture

e.g. Carbon market benefits (Action

research with 4 NGOs, E. Africa)

8. Incentives for smallholder

mitigation

Real benefits from yields, not selling C credits, only US$2-

10; mitigation is co-benefit

Women better able to benefit where contracts were signed

with small groups, did not require land ownership, trainings

targeted at women.

Farmers need suites of enabling conditions and larger

institutional frameworks to support start-up costs

•Bringing together 500+

policy-makers, farmers,

scientists and development

experts

•Reaching 600,000 through

social media

•Not a stand-alone event

9. Linking with global policy processes

Exploring interacting socio-economic and climate

uncertainties regarding food, environments and

livelihoods with regional policy makers, private sector,

civil society, media, researchers

Scenarios: alternate plausible futures to help

understand key uncertainties we need to deal with and

evaluate the feasibility of policies, strategies,

technologies to do with adaptation, risk management,

pro-poor mitigation

Qualitative: narratives, conceptual models, images,

videos

Quantitative: graphs, maps,

interactive models

10. Regional scenarios & visioning

Industrious Ants Herd of Zebra

Lone Leopards Sleeping Lions

+ Wide range of benefits for food security, environments and livelihoods - difficult international relations; costly battle with corruption, challenges of being competitive with crops and products aimed at domestic markets

+ Region reaches out to international markets: economic boom - Trade-off with food security and environment, not sustainable economically; dependency on service and industrial markets; new vehicles for corruption sap effectiveness

+ Visionary action by individual orgs, initiatives facilitated by governments - Winners and losers world, uncoordinated trade and shared resources, instability, selfishness, fallings out; corruption prevents coordination

+ Massive public mobilizations, international investments, informal trade, personal and community psychological resilience - No win-win, latent capacity and wasted opportunities, revolutions that lead nowhere. Leaders making money through crises.

Fragmented status quo

Rea

ctiv

e go

vern

ance

Pro

acti

ve g

ove

rnan

ce

Regional integration

Fragmented status quo

Rea

ctiv

e go

vern

ance

Pro

acti

ve g

ove

rnan

ce

Regional integration

Quantified for each scenario using IMPACT and GLOBIOM: • GDP • Yields, production costs, prices, trade

measures for crops and livestock • Area change for a range of arable land

types and livestock production systems • Forest and other non-agricultural land

cover change • Various indicators for quantity and

quality of water systems • Infrastructure change • Effects of IT developments • Indicators for livelihoods and social

capital

www.ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios

Example: National sovereignty

fears holding back achievement of

a vision of a more integrated and

competitive East African

Community

Strategic futures: scenarios

‘Industrious Ants’ Scenario: • EA moves towards regional

political and economic integration

• State and non-state actors take a

proactive stance towards food security, environment and livelihoods

Cassava: Could be an important crop for adaptation – more productive under

rising temperatures and has unrivalled drought resistance. Under the ‘Ants’

scenario, cassava production costs decrease by 50% and yields increase

by 30% plus high demand - a “climate smart” crop, compared to scenario with

no regional integration and a reactive stance (‘sleeping lions’) – low

demand, and cassava functions as a food security crop

An example: cassava under one East African scenario

Broad context provided by the

regional scenarios

Impacts on key outcomes of

different adaptation options

Hybrids of systems dynamics,

mathematical programming,

agent-based models

Some development work needed:

moving towards a small

community of practice

Household & community-level modelling

Data collection protocol

• Climate

• Family structure

• Land management

• Livestock management

• Labour allocation

• Family’s dietary pattern

• Farm’s sales and expenses

• Mitigation practices

Impact-household

3) Conclusions

Rights & entitlements

Safety nets

Political voice Access to services

Economic opportunities

For food insecure people, need actions on

Food

availability

Adaptive capacity

Technology

Knowledge &

skills Governance

&

institutions

Income & assets

Access

to

information

Infrastructure

Social capital

1970 1990 2010 2010 2050

Reducing the demand

Brian Keating, 2010, pers comm.

Improving production

Avoiding food losses and waste

40

30

20

10

0

Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

Supply could go down if no action,

combined with climate change

Global

food

demand

(Peta

cal/day)

PhD Network (?) • Common topic:

– E.g. Institutional arrangements for enhancing

adaptive capacity

– E.g. Transforming food systems

• c. 30 PhD students from 20-30 institutions

(>50% developing country)

• Research grants (c. $5000) and logistical

support

• Networking possibilities (supervision, peer

support, min. 2 face-to-face meetings)

• Practical outcomes

• CCAFS sites

Incremental change insufficient

Thank you

www.ccafs.org

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