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Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

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Page 1: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food and Climate Change

The world on a plate

Tara Garnett

Food Climate Research Network

Page 2: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

This presentation• Climate change: an overview• Food & its contribution to climate changing

emissions by life cycle & food type• Specific issues: transport, refrigeration, waste,

health• Climate change & its impact on food supply chains• How might we reduce food chain emissions?• What’s going on? Government & industry• Observations & conclusions• About the Food Climate Research Network

Page 3: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

1. Climate change: an overview

Page 4: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

The facts

• Latest (2007) IPCC report:• ‘Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal…’• Most of the observed increase in globally

averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [over 90% certainty] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations

Page 5: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Climate change…

• Temperature increase of 0.74ºC in last 100 years

• 11 of last 12 years have been the warmest on record

• Warming of oceans• Faster than average warming in Arctic

Page 6: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

What is more…

• Under BAU temperatures to rise by about 3°C by 2100 (range: 2 to 4.5°C ).

• 2°C rise = ‘dangerous climate change’• We’re already ‘committed’ to 1°C rise even if we

stop producing any more GHGs right now.• We need to achieve 80% not 60% cuts by 2050• UK not meeting our CO2 reduction targets

• Will EU meet its 2012 Kyoto target (8% cut)?

Page 7: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network
Page 8: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network
Page 9: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Defining terms

GHGs = greenhouse gas emissions

CO2 the main GHG but…

…others also important especially for food• Methane 213 x greater global warming potential than CO2

• Nitrous oxide 296 x greater global warming potential than CO2

• Refrigerant gases thousands of times greater than CO2

Page 10: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

2. Overall food related GHG emissions

Page 11: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Need to consider emissions at all stages

Need to consider emissions at all stages in the food chain:• Agriculture• Manufacturing • Refrigeration• Transport• Packaging • Retail• Home • Waste

They all affect one another

Page 12: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

A typical food LCA diagram

Source: http://www-mat21.slu.se/publikation/pdf/Programplan2004.pdf

Page 13: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Overall food-related contribution to GHG emissions

• EU EIPRO report: 31% all EU consumption related GHGs

• FCRN UK estimates: around 19% (probably an underestimate) - Defra estimates similar

• World agriculture contribution – 17 - 32% total global emissions

• Huge uncertainty / variability between countries / differences in what’s included and what’s not

Page 14: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

UK GHG emissions – how does food contribute?

Agriculture7.4%

Fertiliser manufacture1.0% Food manufacturing

2.2%

Packaging (incomplete data)0.9%

Transport incl overseas2.5%

Home food related2.1%

Retail 0.9%

Catering1.5%

Waste disposal0.3%

Non food81.3%

FCRN work in progress 2007

Page 15: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

The GHG ‘hotspots’ vary by food

1. Agriculture Meat & dairy; glasshouse veg

2. Manufacture Bread baking

3. Storage Frozen peas or potatoes

4. Transport Anything airfreighted eg. berries

5. Cooking Baked potato, pasta, tea, coffee

6. Packaging Small bottle of beer

7. Waste Fruit & veg

Page 16: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

And there are real difficulties drawing meaning from your measurements

For example:• Relative contribution: Eg. Banana transport emissions

greater than strawberries since we eat more of them but flown-in strawberries are more GHG intensive by volume. Policy implications?

• Specific behaviour: farmer, consumer – huge variations How do you address this?

• What’s the functional unit? Emissions per KG? vit C? pleasure? What do you want to achieve?

• System boundaries: Farm machinery? How employee travelled to work? When does food end and everything else begin?

• The existing infrastructure eg. Refrigeration: If the fridge is on whether the peas are in there or not can we really attribute refrigeration emissions to those peas? And what does it mean for the consumer?

Page 17: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Impacts by food type: FCRN work so far

• Meat and dairy – about 8%

• Fruit and veg - about 2.5%

• Alcoholic drinks – about 1.5%

• This is of the UK’s TOTAL GHG emissions• Similar to this Dutch study…

Page 18: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Contribution of food groups to Dutch GHG emissions KG/CO2e

Meat, meat products & fish, 28.2

Oils & fats, 3

Beverages & products containing sugar, 14.9

Bread, pastry &

flour, 13.3

Other food products, 3

Dairy, 22.9

Potatoes, fruit & veg,

14.6

Klaas Jan Kramer, Henri C Moll, Sanderine Nonhebel, Harry C Wilting, Greenhouse gas emissions related to Dutch food consumption, Energy Policy 27 (1999) 203-216, Elsevier Publications

Page 19: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food impacts by type: Fruit & vegetables

• GHG contributions approx 2.5% total• Trends: increasing consumption of GHG

intensive produce:– Air freighted– Unseasonal protected – Pre-prepared– Fragile / spoilable

Page 20: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Key impact areas

• Transport– 1.5% f&v air freighted, accounting for 40 – 50% total

f&v transport emissions– Air freight growing rapidly

• Refrigeration– from post harvest home– Trade offs AND synergies with transport

• Waste – Approx 25% fruit and veg wasted – most at domestic

stage– Supply chain demands make waste inevitable

Page 21: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Less GHG intensive produce

• Seasonal and field grown: no heating; fewer ‘tradeoffs’

• Robust (less need for rapid transport, less prone to waste, less temp critical?)

Page 22: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food impacts by type: Alcoholic drinks

• Contributes around 1.5% UK total

• Not much difference between types

• Hotspots: hospitality sector, transport, packaging

• Lack of data

Page 23: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Relative contribution of stages to beer emissions (draft & packaged)

11.48

20.88

47.90

5.81

4.21

10.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Consumption

Transport

Packaging production

Brew ing

Malting

Agriculture

Page 24: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Relative contribution of stages to wine emissions

24.93

17.45

34.90

22.73

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Consumption

Transport

Packagingproduction

Total agriculture andalcohol production

Page 25: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Relative contribution of stages to spirit emissions

16.98

23.02

19.18

19.18

19.14

2.49

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Consumption

Transport

Packaging production

Distilling

Malting

Agriculture

Page 26: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Trends:

• More wine: relative importance of transport to grow?

• More chilled: cold lagers, cider over ice, chilled wine, spirit mixers

• More in-home: more single serve packages

• Hospitality sector??• More drinking

Page 27: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Scope for reduction?

• Brewing / distilling: progress being made• Packaging: lightweighting (but little recycling

from pubs etc.)• Hospitality sector: no policy focus here yet (but

this is changing – more later)• Consumption: adherence to Dept of Health recs

would lead to 18% reduction in consumption. BUT– Rebound effect– International trade

Page 28: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food impacts by type: Meat & dairy

• Global – 18% global emissions (FAO 2006)

• EU – 15% EU emissions or 50% of all food impacts (EIPRO 2006)

• Dutch study: 50% of all food impacts• UK (from FCRN study):

– 6.6% production related GHG emissions (NETCEN & other)

– 8% consumption emissions (Cranfield plus volumes based on MLC & Defra)

Page 29: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Projected global trends in meat & dairy demand

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Developing countries meat

Developing countries milk

Developed countries meat

Developed countries milk

Year

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Source: FAO 2006

But per capita developing world demand still lower than developed world (IFPRI 2001)

Poultry takes biggest share of growth

Page 30: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

But

• We have to eat – there’ll always be an impact

• Livestock production yields food and non food benefits – they ‘save’ having to produce them by other means

• Some livestock rearing utilises unproductive land & by-products

• Would non-animal substitutes be any better for GHG emissions?

Page 31: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

To understand why the impacts arise and how/whether they can be reduced you need to look at

• The inputs to the production system and GHG implications

• The outputs from the system and GHG implications

Page 32: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Dairy cows Suckler cows

Dairy replacement heifer calvescalves

Dairy bull calves

Suckler bull calves Suckler heifer calves

MEAT

MILK

Dairy bulls Beef bulls

Dairy cowsBeef bulls

Crossbreed calves male and female

Different systems have different inputs & outputs

Page 33: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Livestock system inputs

• Cereals: How much? Alternative uses (food, biofuel)?

• Oilseeds: Second order impacts? Relationship between cake and oil?

• Grazing land: Inputs to? Alternative uses? Benefits of?

• By-products: Alternative uses? • Land: What’s the best way of using

the land for most output at least GHG cost?

• Energy: on farm and indirect

• What are the second order impacts eg. Lost carbon sequestration from land clearance?

• What is the opportunity cost – could these inputs be used in other ways?

Page 34: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Livestock system outputs

• Nutrition: protein, calcium, iron, B12, fat…• Leather & wool• Rendered products: glues, soaps, pet

food…• Manure: nutrients and soil quality• Soil carbon sequestration• Landscape aesthetics & biodiversity

Page 35: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Questions

• What benefits do we gain from livestock production?

• Are these benefits accurately accounted for in life cycle analysis?

• How much do we need these products?– (who defines need?)

• To what extent can we obtain these goods / services by non livestock means and what would the GHG implications be?

Page 36: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

General conclusions on meat, dairy and nutrition

• Good source of calcium, iron & Vit B12• Not so important for protein• Provides fat in excess• Livestock products not essential• But useful in small quantities esp. for

vulnerable groups• Different issues for rich in developed world

and extremely poor in developing world

Page 37: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Non food benefits

• Leather: useful byproducts but not ‘needed’ at current levels (but developing world industries)– Comes with own environmental downsides

• Wool: v. small textile player• Rendered products: are we making the

most efficient use of the carcass?

Page 38: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Manure

• Costs & benefits– Avoids need for mineral fertilisers (although

harder to optimise input levels)

– Contributes to soil quality / carbon sequestering properties of soil

– Leads to methane and nitrous oxide emissions

Page 39: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Soil carbon sequestration, biodiversity & aesthetics

(grazing land) • Pasture land important for carbon

sequestration & biodiversity• But 20% land degraded by overgrazing

worldwide (73% in dry areas)• Hence carbon losses and decline in

biodiversity

Page 40: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Mitigation: relative importance of different gases - GWP

Source: Williams AG (2007) per comm. Based on Williams, A.G., Audsley, E. and Sandars, D.L. (2006) Determining the environmental burdens and resource use in the production of agricultural and horticultural commodities. Main Report. Defra Research Project IS0205.

Page 41: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Mitigation options

1. Husbandry (feed, breed etc)

2. Changing management (organic vs non

organic, intensive vs extensive)

3. Managing outputs (manure)

4. Changing numbers

Page 42: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

In the context of

• Framing issues: Animal welfare, biodiversity, long term soil quality and soil carbon storage, rural economy

• Managing trade offs: With other social / environmental concerns & pollution swapping

• Land use: Need to consider the opportunity cost of using land for one purpose over another

Page 43: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

GHGS: Foods with major impacts

• Meat and dairy– 8% + UK estimate– 13.5% total EU GHG emissions (half of all food

emissions): could we get our protein / iron / calcium / shoes /warm jumpers / glues in other ways?

– FAO estimates livestock =18% global GHG emissions• Certain kinds of fruit and vegetables

– Veg diets not always better• ‘Unnecessary’ foods and drinks – alcohol,

beverages, confectionary– Whose needs? Who defines them? (more later)

Page 44: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

3. Specific issues: Transport, refrigeration,

waste, health

Page 45: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Transport: What about food miles?• 2.5 – 3.5% of UK GHG emissions (incl imports)• Is nearer better? It depends….• There are trade-offs to consider

– Eg. agricultural production, manufacturing efficiency, energy mix, cold storage, waste

• On the other hand…relationship between transport distance & refrigeration, & waste

• Structural impacts on economy and infrastructure investment

• Conflicting demands on land eg. biofuels. What should we use our land for?

• ‘Answer’ now might be different to ‘answer’ in 5 – 10 years time

Page 46: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

What about air freight?

• The most GHG intensive form of transport

• Less than 1% all food carried by air but = 11% total food transport CO2 (including car trips)

• 1.5% fruit and veg carried by air but accounts for 40% total f&v transport CO2

• Kenyan green beans 20-26 times more GHG intensive than seasonal UK beans

Page 47: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Air freight continued….

• Absolute impacts small but in relative terms growing – and it subsidises passenger air travel

• The greater the volume, the cheaper it is to fly food

• Food is the fastest growing air freighted commodity

• Might climate change increase use of air freight (variability of supply leads to more use of emergency ‘top ups’)?

Page 48: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Is air always the worst option?

Sometimes other options can be more GHG intensive (eg. hothouse flowers in Feb from Holland compared with those from Kenya)

BUT

This doesn’t meant that air freight is ‘okay’It just means that both have very high impacts!

Page 49: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

However…air freight and developing countries

Contribution of SSA countries to total non-EU fruit and veg air freighted imports:

• Kenya 22%• S Africa 6%• Ghana 6%• Zimbabwe 3.6%Of top 20 air freight importers by volume, almost all less developed countries1-1.5 mill people dependent on export horticulture • in SSA (up to 120,000 directly employed) • Lives depend upon it – some excellent projects• Joined up Govt policy implication?

Page 50: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Refrigeration life cycle stage

Carbon emissions MT

Contribution to UK GHG (total 179 MTCe)

Manufacturing 0.28 0.18%

Food retail & catering

1.46 0.97%

Domestic 1.9 1.24%UK total 3.64 2.39%

Embedded impacts from imports & emissions from mobile refrigeration not included. IF THEY WERE....

Food refrigeration & GHGs

Page 51: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Then overall refrigeration GHGs 3-3.5% of UK total

• Total food related GHGs around 19-20%

• Food refrigeration = 17-18% all food GHGs

Page 52: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Reducing impacts:How far will technology get us?

• Savings between 20-50% possible

• Novel technologies eg. trigeneration

• Institutional inertia & short term costing

• Policies in place / being developed

• Masses of advice

Page 53: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

But we now live in a refrigeration dependent society: Why?

• Changes in foods & drinks we buy

• Changes in how we live our lives– Economic changes– Weekly shopping– Women – Lifestyles – Housing design/ temperatures

• Infrastructure development stimulates cold food manufacturing which stimulates infrastructure investment – and reinforces behavioural norms

Page 54: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network
Page 55: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Future refrigeration trends?

Some projections refrig. emissions set to decline. But:

• A warming climate? More dependency• New product innovation?

– product/technology/behaviour interface• Can’t look at refrigeration emissions alone:

– Nexus of transport, packaging, retail and IT infrastructure within which refrigeration technology is situated.

Page 56: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

In short

• Refrigeration as marker of unsustainable energy use? – Nodal point of energy intensive

practices/behaviours

• Policies need to tackle not just

refrigeration energy use but refrigeration dependency

Page 57: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

A less refrigeration dependent food chain

Foods• Less meat and dairy• Fewer ‘fragile’ foods• More seasonal robust produce

More frequent shopping / cooking patterns

Optimum fridge size / level of infrastructure?

Food safety / waste - issues more nuanced than at first appears.

Page 58: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Waste: why is it a problem for food GHGs?

• Decomposing food generates methane (small problem)

• Wasted food represents a waste of all the emissions generated during the course of growing, processing, storing, transporting, retailing and cooking the food. (BIG PROBLEM)

• Around1/3 food we eat is thrown away, most of it edible.

Page 59: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

The most wasted foods• Top 5 waste categories: fruit and veg, meat and

fish, bakery, dairy, rice and pasta• High waste foods = mostly also GHG intensive• Most waste occurs at household stage – once food

has ‘embedded’ upstream GHG emissions

• BUT: • If we waste less will we buy less? Will farmers grow

less? Will supermarkets sell less food & but more GHG intensive? Or energy using non food products? Will we export more / import less? What are the policy implications? What action is needed?

Page 60: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

What about organic?

• Many benefits to organic:– Long term soil quality– Biodiversity

• But it’s not always less GHG intensive– Eg. Poultry

• ALTHOUGH it sometimes is!• So how do you act consistently?

Page 61: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Is healthy food less GHG intensive?

It depends…

Page 62: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network
Page 63: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Potatoes

Dried peas

Carrots

Two balanced meals…A ninefold GHG difference

Rice

Tomatoes

Pork

Production of meal on the left is nine times less GHG intensive than the one on the right

Carlsson-Kanyama A (1998) Climate change and dietary choices - how can emissions of greenhouse gases from food consumption be reduced? Food Policy, vol 23, no.3/4, pp.277-293

Page 64: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

4. Impact of climate change on the food system

Page 65: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Impacts on agriculture

Huge uncertainty... Impacts depend on Interplay between:

• Gradual temperature increase• CO2 effect• Wildcards (extreme drought, flooding)• Water• Economics, demographics, infrastructure

Page 66: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Impacts continued...

• May be positive in N. Countries up to 2050 - then negative

• Poor countries – negative and then more negative

• Changes in crop suitability• Crop and livestock diseases• Water

• Poor will suffer most

Page 67: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Source: IPCC 2004 Wkg Gp II Ch5

The picture by 2050

Page 68: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Climate change – knock on effects

• If current sources no longer viable – need to source from elsewhere (further?)

• Increasing reliance on emergency top ups (by air)?

• Weather related spoilage / waste

Page 69: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Major commodity crops - impacts

– Wheat: North – South divide– Rice: water shortages– Cocoa: W. Africa – threat from drought

– Coffee: more vulnerable– Wine grapes: water? Quality? – Cane sugar: water

• Increased developing world dependence on imports from developed world

Page 70: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Post harvest impacts

Food sourcing, processing and distribution• Disruptions to transport & stationary infrastructure• Unpredictability can lead to crop spoilage & waste• Changes in sourcing decisions? • More imports to developing worldConsumption• Changes in consumer demand?• Consequences for food industry & household

energy use?• Food safety problems?

Page 71: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

The CC context

• Physical effects of CC need to be seen in social, economic, political, demographic and infrastructural context – feedback interactions

• Climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities of poor in developing world

• The more rapid the climate change the harder it will be to adapt

• Poor farmers less likely to be able to adapt – infrastructural, political, economic barriers

Page 72: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

What might the impacts be for food supply?

• Current sources no longer viable?• More variability of supply?• Challenges for transport / distribution

infrastructure• The ‘right’ sourcing answer from a GHG

perspective depends on which part of the supply chain cleans up its act / adapts first

• Impact of legislation may be more important in the short term

Page 73: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

5. Reducing food’s GHG contribution

Page 74: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

How far will technology get us?

• Agriculture: plant breeding; better nutrient use; alternative fuel sources for greenhouses

• Manufacturing: CHP / trigeneration / polygeneration / life cycle costing

• Refrigeration: 20-50% efficiency savings possible; novel technologies including non HFC refrigeration, trigeneration (increases efficiency from 38% to 76%).

• Packaging: lightweighting, alternative materials, ambient storage packaging

Page 75: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

More technological options

• Transport: modal shift, efficient supply chains; cleaner fuels (in future years)

• Retailing: massive scope for improvements in lighting and refrigeration; renewables

• Domestic: energy efficient appliances, visible energy metering

• Lots of little impacts/solutions rather than one big one

Page 76: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

But

• Will this get us to an 80% cut by 2050?

• Technological improvements don’t address the root problems of the way we consume

• And technology shapes behaviour, fostering new (energy dependent) norms

• Two examples…

Page 77: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Eg.1: Ready meal vs home cooking

• Is the energy efficient ready meal the answer? * No trimmings or scraps: less waste* Production stage scraps can be used for animal feed* No packaging for individual ingredients* More efficient industrial ovens* Only transport what is eaten: less transport* Recent LCA showed little difference between home and ready-meal

But: complex multi-ingredient, elaborately prepared food

reliant on long supply chains and refrigeration becomes the

norm – triggering further innovations…problem exacerbated?

Page 78: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Eg. 2: Food waste: how to reduce?

• Wasted food = wasted CO2 + CH4• One third food bought is not eaten• The technology approach? Improve packaging,

portion size (no leftovers), extend food life span to match our lifestyles? Keep food properly refrigerated. Shrink-wrapped cucumber last longer than unpackaged cucumber

• The behaviour approach? Plan your meals, shop little and often, eat food soon after you’ve bought it, use your leftovers, compost scraps, shared living? Eat that cucumber sooner rather than later!

Page 79: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

What might a less GHG intensive way of eating look like?

• Changing the balance of what we eat – Less meat & dairy - lower down on food chain

• Seasonal field grown foods (less storage, heating & transport)– UK seasonal when possible– Elsewhere seasonal when not

• Not eating certain foods– Avoiding hothoused/air freighted produce (but

developing world?)• Reducing dependence on cold chain

– Robust foods (including less processed)– Frequent non car based shopping / frequent turnover

of food

Page 80: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Less GHG intensive eating

• But wasting less– Eat what we buy, soon after we’ve bought it– Accepting variability of quality and supply

• Efficient cooking– Cook for more people and for several days– Less use of oven

• Redefining quality– Accepting different notions of quality– Accepting more variability

Page 81: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

How?

Life is complicated and

food is a complex part of life

Page 82: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food

EntertainmentNeurosis

Habit

PleasureNeed

Social glueSatisfaction

Comfort

Status Love

PowerBribery

Time-pass

Nurture

Religious significance

RitualGuilt

Food and its meanings

Page 83: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Influenced by wider forces• Price / affordability• Availability• Time – work / ‘stressed leisure’ syndrome• Culture, social & family expectations, norms, aspirations• Knowledge, information, fashions & beliefs (education,

media, marketing)• Demographic changes: ageing population, single person

society, wealth • Technological changes • Season • Tastes • Habits

Page 84: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

What might this mean for the food industry?

Consistency, choice, ubiquity, availability, variety…

Versus

Less choice? More variability of quality? Non availability? A move away from cheap meat? From chilled foods….

Page 85: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

You cannot wait for consumers to change their behaviour

• They don’t know enough• They don’t care enough• Behaviour ‘lock-in’

• They won’t unless they have to... Govt and industry must take the lead – change the context of consumption

Page 86: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

6. The policy context – global and UK

Page 87: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

The global context

• Rising population – 9 billion by 2050• Increasing food / oil prices• Dash for biofuels• Nutrition transition• Land pressures• (Climate change legislation...)

Page 88: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

A few framing policies/initiatives

• Kyoto Protocol• Bali 2007 agreement on deforestation• EU Emissions Trading Scheme• European Commission Energy Policy

– 20% GHG cut by 2020 (should be 30%+)– Biofuels 10% transport fuels by 2020

(criticisms)• Biofuels support – EU, US

Page 89: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

The UK context: the new Climate Change Bill

• New UK Climate Change Bill – 60% reduction by 2050 Targeted 5 yearly ‘budgets’ set at least 15 years ahead

• 26-32% cut by 2020• This is good but we need 80-90% cuts to

keep emissions below 450ppm • Target currently being reconsidered

Page 90: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food/climate relevant legislation and initiatives (UK)

• Climate Change Agreements• Carbon Reduction Commitment (consultation)• Food Industry Sustainability Strategy and ‘champions

groups’ recommendations• Market Transformation Programme (radical

improvements in devt and uptake of energy efficient technology)

• Cabon Trust advice and support• Various Defra research programmes• Product ‘road maps’ on reducing impacts (eg. dairy

products• Developing consistent GHG labelling methodology (with

business and British Standards)• Thinking about personal carbon allowances (could food

be incorporated into this?)

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UK policy

• Is this enough? Little direct focus on agriculture

• “Business running ahead of Government”

• Where is a coherent vision backed up with a plan?

Page 92: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Regulation

Legislation

Caps, quotas, thresholds, bans

Economic and fiscal

Voluntary agreements

Education, marketing & promotion

Social pressure

What new measures should we be considering?

What measures have worked for food & how can we strengthen them?

Policy instruments

Government: Some policy tools

Consumers

Food industry

Technological change

& uptake

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7. What is the food industry doing?

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Some food industry initiatives - agriculture

• Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (Nestle, Unilever, Danone, Kraft etc.)

• EUREPGAP

• Roundtables on sustainable soy / palm oil

• Not specifically climate focused

Page 95: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food industry initiatives: retailers

• M & S: • £200 million ‘Plan A’• All operations carbon neutral by 2012• 25% energy cut; power stores with green electricity• Label and reduce air freighted produce• Tesco:

– Label and reduce air freighted produce– 50% energy cut in stores and DCs by 2020– £100 million renewables fund– Halve distribution emissions / case in 5 yrs

• Migros (Switzerland) – to introduce carbon labelling• French and Australian announcements

Page 96: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Food industry initiatives: manufacturers

• Tate & Lyle: biomass boiler to replace 70% fossil energy

• McCain's: up to 70% electricity needs from renewables including wind turbines and CHP plant running on biogas

• Cadbury’s: 50% absolute cut in carbon emissions by 2020

• Many others starting to carbon footprint their operations

• But focus of food industry is on efficiency rather than shifts in consumption.

Page 97: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Policy & business limitations

• Reluctant to question core business principles of Choice, Variety, Ubiquity, Repeatability, Convenience.

• And therefore scope for GHG reduction limited largely to technological change

• And technological change alone creates further behavioural changes

• Need not just to do things more efficiently but…• …Sell / don’t sell different stuff - ‘choice editing’

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8. Observations and conclusions

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Food’s impacts

• Climate change is happening• Food contributes to a significant proportion of

global GHG emissions• All stages in the supply chain contribute to

emissions• Agriculture most significant stage / meat and

dairy most GHG intensive food• Global food demand is moving in more GHG

intensive directions

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• Climate change will affect global food supply - poor regions will suffer most

• Technology unlikely to get us to an 80% cut

• Consumption shifts needed too• Policy and govt beginning to tackle

problem but only from ‘efficiency’ perspective

Page 101: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Some major concerns

• 9 billion people on planet in 2050• Increase in numbers in absolute poverty AND

growing wealth in many parts of developing world• The poor will suffer most from climate change• An 80%+ cut in developed world GHGs needed • Tackle problems in isolation or as a whole -

atomised vs synthetic approach?

Page 102: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Land – the big challenge

• In the context of 9 billion on planet by 2050• What is the best use of global land so that:

– We are all fed adequately ...– At minimum GHG cost?– Stored carbon is not released?– Biodiversity is protected?– Other ethical non-negotiables upheld??

• Meeting Needs rather than demand - only feasible approach

Page 103: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

In other words....

• Land to feed animals or to feed humans? • Land for feed production or for carbon

sequestration?• Land for animal rearing or for biomass

production?

• We need to collaborate globally and think strategically about how to make best use of land. But how?

Page 104: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Some research challenges• We need to:• Gain ‘good enough’ understanding of where the problem

lies by particular food type• Work out how far technology can get us • Improve understanding on what sorts of consumption

patterns (in the context of these technology changes) can help achieve reductions

• Understand more clearly how technological innovation influences behaviour and vice versa

• Frame the climate change debate in the context of other social, environmental and economic concerns

• LCA can inform policy but vagaries of consumer and business behaviour ALSO need to inform LCA

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9. About the FCRN

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The FCRN: some context

Funded by UK research council www.epsrc.ac.uk

& based at

Surrey University (www.surrey.ac.uk)

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The FCRN

Funded by UK research council www.epsrc.ac.uk

& based at Surrey University (www.surrey.ac.uk)

Focuses on:• Researching food chain contribution to GHG

emissions and options for emissions reduction• Sharing and communicating information on food

& climate change with 760 + member network

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Research activities• What are the GHG impacts of food?• What do we know about ways of reducing

emissions, both technological & behavioural?

• What don’t we know?• What are the policy implications?• What are the future research priorities?

Page 109: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

FCRN outputs1. Four comprehensive studies so far:

1. Fruit & vegetables

2. Alcoholic drinks

3. Food refrigeration

4. Meat & dairy

2. See here for publications http://www.fcrn.org.uk/researchLib/index.htm

Page 110: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Communication & networking

Communicates information & fosters knowledge-sharing to 760+ members• Across disciplines • Across sectors (eg. Govt, business, NGOs, academic)

How?• Mailing / newslist on food/climate issues• Runs seminars• Meetings & presentations• Website

Page 111: Food and Climate Change The world on a plate Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network

Thank you and please join

Tara [email protected]

www.fcrn.org.uk

Food Climate Research Network