Following lives from birth and through the adult years Longitudinal Research on Education using the British Cohort Studies Alice Sullivan,

following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk

Longitudinal Research on Education using the British

Cohort Studies

Alice Sullivan, Director British Cohort Study

Centre for Longitudinal Studies

CLS is an ESRC Resource Centre based at the Institute of Education


Structure of presentation

• The British Cohort Studies• Examples of Research• Future plans


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Birth Cohort Studies

National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD)Those living in GB born in one week in 1946

National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD)Those living in GB born in one week in 1946

National Child Development Study (NCDS)All those living in GB born in one week in 1958

National Child Development Study (NCDS)All those living in GB born in one week in 1958

1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)All those living in GB born in one week in 1970

1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)All those living in GB born in one week in 1970

Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)All those born in selected areas of UK over 12 months

beginning September 2000 in England and Wales, and December 2000 in Scotland and Northern Ireland

Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)All those born in selected areas of UK over 12 months

beginning September 2000 in England and Wales, and December 2000 in Scotland and Northern Ireland


1946 Birth Cohort Study National Maternity Survey to investigate costs of

childbirth and quality of associated health care (16,500 births) after WW2

A sample of 5,362 of this original survey have been followed over time

21 contacts most recently at age 53 Continuously funded by MRC since 1962 Approximately 3,500 remain in the study


1958 Birth Cohort Study Representative sample of over 17,000 infants born in March 1958 Not initially planned as a longitudinal study Sample followed at ages 7, 11, 16, 23, 33, 42, 46, 50 (prospective study) Retrospective life history data collected at age 23, 33, 42, 46, 50 Rich data collected from parents, schools, and the respondents themselves.

For example work history partnership history fertility history housing history

Approximately 12,000 individuals are still participating Information on individuals can be linked from birth and childhood through

into adult life Now funded by ESRC with data collected every four years


NCDS Follow-ups & information sources


Hypothetical life history: for a member of the 1958 cohort

x

Born

19581st child 1984

Age 7 Age 42 Age 46Age 16 Age 23

Age 33

Gets married

Parental interest in school work

Free school meals

Mother’s smoking behaviour

Parental divorce

Maths and reading tests

Exam results

Job 1 Job 2 Job 3 (part time)

Age 50

1991 2000 20041981 20081965 1969 1974

Age 11

2nd child 1987

Voting behaviour

Psychological well being

Working hours preferences

Savings

Domestic division of labour

Union membership

Training and skills


Imagine that you are now 60 years old...please write a few lines about the life you are leading (your interests, your home life, your health and well-being and any work you may be doing).

Cohort members’ views of the future…



BCS70: 1970 Birth Cohort Study Representative sample of over 16,000 infants born in 1970 Sample followed at ages 5, 10, 16, 26, 30, 34, 38 Approximately 12,000 individuals are still participating Now funded by ESRC with data collected every four years Co-ordination with NCDS facilitates cross cohort

comparisons


BCS70 Follow-ups & information sources


Millennium Cohort Study

18, 818 babies. So far followed up at ages 3 and 5. Cohort born over 12 month period

Season of birth effects Spread workload of professional interviewers

Geographically clustered by electoral ward

Over-sampling of ethnic minorities. Better approach to issue of community & local services

Content multi-purpose & multidisciplinary but with greater emphasis on social rather than medical


MCS Follow-ups & information sources


Objectives of MCS

To chart the initial conditions of the social, economic and health advantages and disadvantages facing new children in the new century and their consequences

To capture information for the future

To compare patterns of development with other cohorts

To collect information on previously neglected topics, such as father’s involvement and child care

To investigate the wider social ecology of the family, including community and services, splicing in geo-coded data


Questions Addressed by Birth Cohort Data

How have trends over time changed? E.g. In educational attainment/ inequalities between groups.

How do life-course trajectories develop? E.g. Educational trajectories.

How do earlier events affect later outcomes? E.g. Returns to education.

What happens at key transition points? E.g. Transition to higher education, family formation.

What is the impact of changes in social and education policies? E.g. Change in school systems.


Longitudinal Research Questions in Education 1

Assessing social trends over time Have educational inequalities increased or decreased

over time? Bynner, J. and Joshi, H. (2002) ‘Equality and

opportunity in education: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 birth cohort studies’, Oxford Review of Education, 28 (4): 405-425.

Comparison of two birth cohorts.



Assessing lifecourse trajectories How do educational inequalities emerge and develop

during the early years? Feinstein, L. (2003) ‘Inequality in early cognitive

development of British children in the 1970 cohort’, Economica, 70: 73-97.

Tracks development from 22 months to age 10.


The SEG gap in early years

High SES; low early rank

Low SES;low early rank

High SES;high early rank

Low SES; high early rank

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 76 82 88 94 100 106 112 118

Age in months

Av

era

ge

po

sit

ion

in

th

e d

istr

ibu

tio

n

Source: Feinstein (2003)



Assessing the effects of education on later outcomes in the labour market

How do qualifications effect womens’ later labour market experiences?

Elliott, J., Dale, A. and Egerton, M. (2001) ‘The influence of qualifications on women’s work histories, employment status and earnings at age 33’, European Sociological Review, 17 (2): 145-168.

Examines the impact of women’s qualifications and work histories on wages.



Assessing the impact of life events on later outcomes Do the negative ‘effects’ of teenage motherhood are

real or spurious Hobcraft, J. and Kiernan, K.E. (2001) Childhood

poverty, early motherhood and adult social exclusion. British Journal of Sociology 52 (3): 495-517.

Examines whether the negative effects of early childbearing can be explained by childhood precursors such as child poverty.



Assessing the impacts of poverty during the early years using MCS

http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/text.asp?section=00010001000500150021 Causes and consequences of disadvantage for young children in Britain and Northern Ireland (Sullivan, Joshi, Ketende, Obelenskaya, Cara).

Tracks inequalities at age 5 and then 7.

http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/text.asp?section=00010001000500150021

http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/text.asp?section=00010001000500150021


Analytical strategy

1. Descriptive analysis

2. Regression (linear or logistic as appropriate) analyses for both UK and NI separately.

4 Nested models

1. NI, Poverty and child-specific controls

2. Social background controls

3. Neighbourhood characteristics

4. Other potential mediating and moderating factors


BAS mean scores MCS3


Education assessment score


Behavioural (SDQ)


Less than ‘excellent’ health


Overweight


Example of a research project using NCDS: The debate over single-sex schools Is there a real impact on academic attainment for girls

or boys? Success in later life? Are there effects on social outcomes – relationships

with the opposite sex, etc?

Exam attainment at 16+: competing hypotheses

• Traditional view – boys and girls distract one another in co-ed.

• ‘Progressive view’ (Dale) girls have a civilising influence on boys in co-ed, and girls are not harmed.

• Some feminists have argued that girls are disadvantaged in co-ed.

• Proponents of ‘different learning styles’ say boys and girls need to be taught differently.

• Recent arguments that boys are disadvantaged by ‘feminised’ co-ed schools.

Frequencies – 5+ O levels

Male Female Co-ed Single-sex Co-ed Single-sex

Count % Count % Count % Count % < 5 passes

3778 85.0% 876 63.3% 3521 85.8% 851 57.6%

5+ passes

667 15.0% 508 36.7% 583 14.2% 627 42.4%

Total 4445 100.0% 1384 100.0% 4104 100.0% 1478 100.0%

Broken down by school sector5+ O level passes

01020304050607080

%

Boys Co-ed

Boys school

Girls co-ed

Girls school

Divorce: Men

% Men Divorced or separated by age 42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Co-ed Boys Co-ed Boys Co-ed Boys Co-ed Boys

Private Grammar Sec Mod Comprehensive

% Divorced or separated

Hourly Wages age 42: Women School at 16 School sex Mean

£ N

Co-ed 9.42 27 Private Girls’ school 11.89 151 Co-ed 10.18 137 Grammar & tech Girls’ school 11.37 280 Co-ed 6.74 507 Secondary mod Girls’ school 7.54 187 Co-ed 7.92 1662 Comprehensive Girls’ school 8.33 219 Co-ed 7.81 2333 Total Girls’ school 9.81 837


Project findings

Sullivan, A., Joshi, H. and Leonard, D. (forthcoming) ‘Single-sex schooling and labour market outcomes’. Oxford Review of Education.

Sullivan, A., Joshi, H. and Leonard, D. 2010 ‘Single-sex Schooling and Academic Attainment at School and through the Lifecourse’. American Educational Research Journal 47(1) 6-36.

Sullivan, A. 2009. ‘Academic self-concept, gender and single-sex schooling’ British Educational Research Journal 35(2) 259-288.


Future Plans

MCS and BCS70 will be in the field in 2012 NCDS will be in the field in 2013 We welcome external input into our consultative

processes Consultative conference: http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/even

ts.asp?section=000100010004&page=2&item=1042


Website

www.cls.ioe.ac.ukPlease register for regular updates

Documents

Following lives from birth and through the adult years Longitudinal Research on Education using the British Cohort Studies Alice Sullivan,