Follow the Money: Where are Robotics & AI Investors Placing

Their Bets?

Ron Stearns – Business Development and Market Analysis, Robotics and Unmanned Systems

U.S. DoD Unmanned Systems

New Pathways to Programs of Record

Army: Future Vertical Lift - PE 0603801A / Aviation Advanced Development 2017-2023 ($ Million)

FVL Capability Set 3 aircraft will conduct Air Assault, Amphibious Assault, Urban Assault/Security, Attack, Maritime Interdiction, Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC),Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR), Tactical Resupply, Direct Action (DA), Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) and Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) operations in support of Army, including Army Special Operations Command, Marine Corps and Joint forces.

The FVL Capability Set 3 platform willsignificantly increase speed, range, mobility, and payload over current US Army H-60 and US Marine Corps H-1 aircraft and provide Combatant Commanders withtactical capabilities at greatly increased operational and strategic distances.

U.S. Army – FY 2019 , RDTE Selected Programs 2017-2023 ($ million)

FB4: Common Robotic Systems - small sized (<25 lbs.) Soldier back-packable, remotely operated system with increased standoff capability. FY 2019 RDTE funding support two vendors to develop prototypes for submission to down-select.

FB6: Squad Multipurpose Equipment Transport (SMET) - capable of carrying the equipment required to support Infantry Platoons for a 72 hour mission without resupply.

USAF: FY 2019 Selected UAS Programs 2017-2023 ($ Million)

MQ-9: USAF set to take delivery of 110 MQ-9s (2017-2023) for a delivery total of 443 aircraftOther initiatives include: Gorgon Stare, standardized ops centers for remote split operations, other development and fielding and addressing diminishing manufacturing sources

RQ-4: Post-production changes and standardization for aircraft and ground control segments as well as Multi-Platform Radar Technology Insertion Program (MP-RTIP)

USMC: 4757 / Unmanned Air Systems - Small Unit Remote Scouting System (SURSS) 2017-2023 ($ Million)

The SURSS program procures UAS to provide battalion/company/detachment level units with scalable airborne reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities to aid in detecting, identifying, engaging, or avoiding enemy units.

Multiple systems, to include RQ-12 Wasp, RQ-11 Raven, RQ-20 Puma and various Nano/VTOL UAS's are requiredto meet operational requirements delineated in the Operational Requirements Document.

U.S. Navy: FY2019 Unmanned Systems – Selected Programs 2017-2023 (USD Million)

U.S. Navy: FY 2019 Unmanned Undersea: Selected Programs 2017-2023 (USD Million)

• Payloads, energy prototyping, envelope expansion

• Knifefish mine countermeasures

• Snakehead Large Displacement UUV –high submarine-launched priority

• Development, fabrication and test of ORCA Extra Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Systems (XLUUVs)

Commercial UXS Markets

Challenges / Faa reauthorization impacts / autonomous vehicles

Expedite development of a UAS traffic management system - UTM

FAA can impose remote identification and tracking requirements

Create consensus industry standards in lieu of type and airworthiness certification

FAA Reauthorization: Salient UAS Directives and Duration

Possibility of 6 months to limited operation upon request of UTM service provider

Under Section 376, standards and required equipage TBD

Safety standards through establishment of a UAS Center of Excellence initiative (Section 345)

Aircraft Cost per Flight Hour, Key Performance Parameters

For viability, there must be an intersection between direct operating costs and unique capabilities the UAS brings to the equation

UAS advantages can include:• Rapid deployment• Potential for use in

wind, weather, precipitation

• Persistence• Time to information

and awareness• Safety of life

2019: Commercial UAS Expectations

• A challenging CONOPS-driven industrial business climate• Part 107 waivers necessary to unlock sustainability

• Continued quadcopter DJI dominance in a Part 107 paradigm• A change in regulatory framework (e.g. BVLOS) will bring truly varied competition and aircraft

types

• Proposal of network-based & direct broadcast solutions for remote ID and tracking• Accountability breeds better behavior

• Methodologies for operational risk assessments• (e.g. Specific Operational Risk Assessment)

• FAA will require Part 107 waiver applicants to do significant safety work• Better from a flight-safety perspective• Not necessarily duplicative like an exemption• Usually specific to a vehicle within a weight range

Autonomous Vehicles: Major Investors, Testing Underway

Waymo – Google born, has completed more than 10 million self-

driven miles on public roads. Plans to build 20,000 Jaguar I-PACE

electric vehicles

Cruise – GM backed, petitioned USDOT for

fully autonomous ride-hailing service in

calendar 2019

Zoox – Foster City based, completed a 60-minute drive from HQ to San Francisco, and plans to produce its

own vehicle

Argo AI – Ford is a major investor, and a

goal is to enable mobility for urban

centers

These four organizations represent billions in investment and millions of road-test miles

Selected UXS Investments and Spending

USAF MQ-9: $6.3 billion. General Atomics ASI

USN MQ-4C Triton: $5.9 billion. Northrop Grumman

Cruise $5 billion. GM, HondaUSN MQ-25

Stingray: $3.9 billion. The Boeing Company

Audi, BMW & Daimler purchased HERE for $3 billion in 2015.

Hyundai Kia invest $2 billion in Artificial Intelligence

USN Undersea Systems: $1.2 billionLockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics all competing

Waymo: Approx. $1.2 billion invested from inception to launch

Reported $1 billion investment in AI

$1b purchase of SW company Argo AI U.S. Department of Defense programs represent

spending from Fiscal Year 2017-2023

Commercial numbers represent investment over time or acquisition costs pertaining to autonomous vehicles and/or AI

Power, sensors and software are vital to continued evolution

Ron Stearns

Business Development – Market AnalysisRobotics and Unmanned Systems

ronstearns@comcast.netC: 707-484-5149