Upload
vanmien
View
230
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
FMCG acrossthe business cycle:What, so what and what next?What, so what and what next?
Helen Passingham-HughesEuropanel
Consumer price inflation
Background - Price Inflation – to December 2009Significant in 2008 – now deflation
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
1
Background - Consumer Confidence – to January 2010Lowest ever in late 2008, early 2009 – now some recovery
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Consumer Confidence Indicator
2
What does history tell us?
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Contractions Shake Consumer out of InertiaBut prior levels are then re-established
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Consumer Inertia over the Business Cycle
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Contraction -1 Standard Deviation +1 Standard Deviation
4
Don‘t try to price promote...dropping price won‘t save you from a recession. Ehrenberg-Bass - 2008
Advertising and New Product Introduction
Reduction Increase/ No reduction
High loss potential Recession may be opportunityBrand Equity - High
Brands and Recessionary Times?
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
...recession doesn‘t change the fundamentals of marketing. Stephan Buck/Andrew Roberts – April 1991
Survival game Try to fight back?
Source: Prof. M. Dekimpe – based on published academic papers
Brand Equity - Low
5
Brands and Recessionary Times?
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
6
� PL growth is systematically related to business cycles
� PL increase in recession not compensated by decline afterwards
� Market behaviour perpetuates this result:
� Brand manufacturers’ behaviour is cyclical
PL growth consistent with previous times of uncertaintyNot easy to get back
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
� Retailers’ behaviour is countercyclical
7
Data: Belgium 1983-2004USA 1971-2003Germany 1975-2002UK 1980-2003
FMCG in 2008/9 Inflation and/or recession?
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Volume
Yr ago %
Global
Inflation the major impact on FMCG
…not recession
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Yr ago %
Change
Actuals
W. Europe FMCG
9
Volume
Yr ago %
Change
Global
Volume trend
Food inflation trend
Inflation the major impact on FMCG
…not recession
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Change
Trend
10
W. Europe FMCG
15
20
25
30
2008 2009
Growth in FMCG value continuesRemains more important to consumers
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-5
0
5
10
Value
% change
11
-5
-2
-8
-24
Value durable goods vs
previous year in %
Durables markets collapse in many European countriesOnly Germany stable
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-0.1
-4
-5
-3
-4
-7
-10
-8
-9 -39
-42
-14
-16
-12
-20
-10Quarters 1.-3.2009
12
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009
Despite inflation and economic conditions, volumes generally upVery resilient
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-4
-2
0
2
Volume
% change
13
Spend compared to control group
year 1 year 2 year 3
bread winner
employed
bread winner - fear of
becoming unemployed
Economic hardship impacts some… and the effect is on the change
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
FMCG value
Value at discounter
Value of private label
10% less
4% more
7% more
14
Inflation the major impact…recovery countries eg France
2
4
6
8C
hang
e %
Inflation (Eurostat)
FMCG Volume Change
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-6
-4
-2
0
Cha
nge
%
15
Private LabelThe effect this time
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
2
4
6
8
2008 2009
Down-trading still important in Europe but has reduced recentlyDeflation also a driver now
Down/Up
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-6
-4
-2
0
17
Down/Up
Trading
%
Down
Trading
%
Down-trading in Western Europe
…driven by inflation
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Western Europe
18
Actual trend
Pre-2008 trend
Western Europe - Private Label long term growthSteady and continued
Food Inflation
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Private Label
Value Shares
Western Europe
19
Food inflation
% vs
yr ago
8
10
12
14
29
30
31
Western Europe – recent Private Label growthInflation impetus and then retained
New trend
Actual trend
Pre-2008 trend
Food Inflation
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-2
0
2
4
6
8
25
26
27
28
Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09
20
Private Label
Value Shares
Western Europe
Food inflation
% vs
yr ago
Private Label FMCG
Value Shares
France SpainUK
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
21
NL Germany Poland
Discounters also gained share above expectation
- prior trend at a new level
Actual trend
Pre-2008 trend
New trend
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Discounter
Value Shares
– Western
Europe
22
Discounter FMCG
Value Shares
France SpainUK
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
23
Germany PolandNL
Shopping behaviour?
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
0
1
2
3
4
Frequency Basket size Penetration Volume
FMCG volumes impacted by consumer category buying- reduced discretionary buying when inflation was high
Contribution
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
-4
-3
-2
-1
0To value
% change
France ‘08
25
Promotions are increasing in importance
17.415.3
22.5
11.6
17.1
28.1
32.5
18 16.9
24.4
13.9
18.8
30.2
33.8
2008 2009
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
26
11.6
France Germany Italy NL Spain UK USA
FMCG – Average number of top retailers visited per quarterGeneral increase in ‘shopping around’ and hence less loyalty to retailers
France SpainNL
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
200820072006 2009
Big 6 TotalUKGermany
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK panel services and Kantar Worldpanel
27
Inflation has also
impacted usage500 million extra meals
€5 billion less out of home
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Back to basics – more
cooking at home, less
going out
extra meals at home
Around 0.6% of FMCG
Anti-cyclical behaviourExamples from Germany
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Winners in both crises
19.020.218.8
2001 2003 2008 2009
Recession Recession
Winner and loser brands across economic cycles
Germany
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
both crises
Losers in both crises
13.5
15.7
17.3
19.017.8
18.8
17.0
30
Market shares
Ad spend
winners
140145
186
Winners act in an anti-cyclical way
Significant increase in advertising
2001 2003 2008 2009
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Market shares
winners
Market shares
losers
Ad spend
losers
Source: Nielsen Media Research for ad vertising data
100
116
88
128
93
140
84
115
66 7367
31
140Market shares winners
2001 2003 2008 2009
% of winners with launches
Winners act in an anti-cyclical way
Much more innovation
48 41 53
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
Source: 20.000er GfK Household Panel ConsumerScan, market shares base value * 2007/2008
100
116
88
128
93
140
84
winners
Market shares losers
% of losers with launches22 38 25
32
Adspend vs Price elasticity - Germany
€8.3m
per brand€12.6m
per brand
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
40 brandswith highest price
elasticity
40 brandswith lowest price
elasticity
33
© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel
34