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FlightPlan Research Phase 2 Summary Results. Jim McGee Global Mapping International IAMA Conference May 2006. Background. Global Mapping International Part of and committed to the mission community Unaffiliated with the mission aviation community Focus and commitment to research - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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FlightPlan ResearchPhase 2 Summary Results
Jim McGee
Global Mapping International
IAMA Conference
May 2006
2
Global Mapping International– Part of and committed to the mission community– Unaffiliated with the mission aviation community– Focus and commitment to research
GMI’s Mission:
Produce and present world-class research that fuels emerging mission movements and leaders.
Background
3
Key Elements of the Project
Collaboration and involvement sought from all stakeholders
A visible, open process Compilation of valuable information for distribution
throughout the mission aviation community Funding provided from several sources Third-party analysis and reporting
4
Phases
Phase 1: Document the status, dynamics and trends
Phase 2: Explore perceptions, needs, challenges, opportunities
Phase 3: Envision and analyze possible & preferable futures
Phase 1: Status & Trends
6
Phase 1 CD Contents
Research Report: Status of Mission Aviation– History– Global Trends– Missiology– Finance– Training– Technology– Strategy/Practice
7
Phase 1 CD Contents
Directory of mission aviation service providers Web directory of mission aviation web sites Library of 300 mission aviation documents Key documents
– Dave Bochman– Ed Robinson– Scott Zibell
Key measures
8
Sample of Phase 1 InfoU.S. Aviation Training Trends
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Cou
nt
Student Pilots Flight Instructors
National and global trends
Number of student pilots has dropped 41% in past 20 years
9
Sample of Phase 1 InfoGlobal Jet Fuel Prices
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Date
Pri
ce p
er G
allo
n (
US
$)
Asia (Singapore)
Europe (Rotterdam)
N. America (New York)
10
Sample of Phase 1 Info15 Large Aviation Service Providers
(Change from 1988-2002)
428
253
616
294
107 103
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Technical Staff Aircraft Flight Hours (thousands)
Year
Co
un
t
1988 2002
Technical m.a. staff is up by 44% since 1988
Flight hours are roughly unchanged
(Chart does not show all known orgs)
11
More Phase 1 Learning (plus)
Roadless population growing: 1 billion by 2030 Among poorest peoples, mobility not expected
to increase substantially Building roads often doesn’t give poorest
access to services they need Economic-valuation models say the value of
time saved is multiplied by a factor of (significant given rapid population increase)
12
More Phase 1 Learning (plus)
Fuel savings from diesel/autofuel aircraft expected to recoup cost in 4 years of service
Staff attrition at MAF (6.5% annually) is similar to that of all U.S.-based missions (6.0%)
Projected supply of pilot trainees runs fairly close to expressed agency need (but do they reach the field?)
Projected supply of maintenance specialists runs somewhat short
Phase 2: Perceptions, Needs, Opportunities, Challenges
14
Methodology
Objectives: Gather internal (stakeholder) and external perspectives
Internal: Interview leaders/representatives within stakeholder groups to explore key issues, questions– Depth interviews– Online focus groups
External: Survey current and potential users of mission aviation to explore needs, perceptions
What Stakeholders See
16
Depth Interviews
40 depth interviews (phone, email) – 15 service providers (10 agencies; senior leaders,
field leaders, pilots, recruiters)– 8 trainers/equippers (5 schools, 3 bridge programs) – 6 support specialists (4 agencies) – 5 donors– 4 service users (representing Guatemala, Ecuador,
Cameroon, South Africa, China and PNG)– 2 current/former students
17
Online Discussions
Discussion Boards– 75 mission-aviation stakeholders– Topical: focusing on questions outlined in Phase 1– Situational: getting reactions to ideas that could
have application for mission aviation, e.g…. …corporate-NGO partnership for global logistics …federal giving initiative to give $200 million to faith-based
organizations working in AIDS-ravaged countries ...Islamic competition in community air service …small-scale tribal tourism operations …2-year field internship for prospective missionaries
18
Values
In relative frequency of mention– Cooperate with other agencies– Be a missionary first, a pilot second– Empower indigenous peoples by increasing their
access to health/education services– Partner closely with national believers/churches– Leave when appropriate; establish exit parameters– Select appropriate technology for situation – Emphasize safety and safety standards– Seek sustainability, financially and otherwise
19
Values
– Focus on learning/research/using information – Define and measure effectiveness – Speed the path to the field; show agility on the field – Consider God-honoring business applications – Smaller aircraft have a place– Internships must meet objectives (not just exposure) – Users pay portion of costs – Variety in the enterprise is good
20
Concerns
In relative frequency of mention– Cost of aviation for nationals (and expats)– Government resistance/regulation– Rising operational costs (and currency devaluation) – Students failing to get to field due to cost, debt and
distractions – Supply of students – Insurance costs
21
Concerns
– Service providers staying too long – Changing technology (training, certification) – Declining funding sources/trends – Avgas supply – Agencies less likely to place missionaries in
isolated locations
22
Opportunities
In relative frequency of mention– Internship opportunities for trainees – Low-tech/simple tech (Steve Saint) – Mission-Business ventures and models – Partnership/consultation with governments on
infrastructure – Cargo capacity – more stuff, fewer trips (Kodiak) – Second-career people/volunteers – Secular schools supplying students
23
Opportunities
– Humanitarian opportunities in closed places – Airstrip construction in areas where governments
are committed to providing services – Pilots returning from the field (training, promoting)– Tentmaking opportunities for trainees – Need of nationals to learn English – Use of commercial pilots for short-term needs– Navigation technology – Community air service
24
Opportunities
– Group insurance– Microaviation – small-scale do-it-alls– FBOs lying dormant– Running national training institutions
25
Needs
Relative frequency of mention– Intentionally reduce dependence on expats– Speed the transition to new aircraft– Recruit more people– Help trainees get field ready (skill & finances)– Measure opportunity/effectiveness– Evaluate viability of new tech applications– Market the benefits to users, churches
26
Needs
– Intentionally seek national administrators (not just technicians)
– Adopt standards across organizations as appropriate (unity without uniformity)
– Understand total cost/investment– Train pilots and trainees on diesel/turbine– Communicate better across agencies– Recruit people with business acumen
What Others See
28
Internet Survey of Potential Users
Internet survey of field leaders whose agencies work among remote peoples
Offline version made available Languages: English, Spanish, Portuguese Recruiting sources emphasized global South
– WEA Mission Commission Associates (global)– Ethne 2006 email list (primarily Asia)– Comibam email list (Latin America)– MANI network regional leaders
29
Internet Survey of Potential Users
Survey billed as “Remote Peoples and Mission Transportation Survey” to avoid potential response bias
40+ data points, including attitude/behavior ratings, 2 open-ended questions, demographics
Respondents asked to identify themselves by name and mission organization
119 valid responses from approximately 800 invitations (approx. 15% response)
30
Involvement with Remote PeoplesMissionaries from our organization...
Do not often work with remote peoples
(intentional)6%
Do not represent sending agency
9%
Often live full time in remote areas
30%
Often travel to remote areas, live elsewhere
29%
Often train people from remote areas (elsewhere)
10%
Do not often work with remote peoples (unintentional)
16%
Respondents asked about relationship with remote peoples
Those not directly engaged with remote peoples were filtered out, as were aviation service providers
Reporting based on 82 responses
31
DemographicsRegion of Residence
Latin America51%
Africa12%
Asia/Pacific (Developing)
20%
Developed World (OECD Nations)
17%
83% of responses from people living in the majority world
Half of respondents live in Latin America
For most measures, no bias based on region of residence
32
DemographicsRegions of Ministry Engagement
23%
11%
48%45%
54%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Latin America Africa Asia/Pacific(Developing)
Europe Asia/Pacific(Developed)
North America
Most respondents represent missions active in multiple regions
33
DemographicsPercentage of Missionaries in Agency Originating from the Developing World
36%
27%
8%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
10% or Less 11%-50% 51%-90% More than 90%
Mix of national-oriented and expat-oriented missions
Relatively few missions have a balance of missionaries from both types of countries
34
DemographicsNumber of Field Missionaries Affiliated with Mission
6%
14%
30%
6%
26%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10 or Fewer 11 to 50 51 to 100 101-250 251-500 More than 500
More than half of respondents from smaller missions;
Nearly 4 in 10 from missions with more than 100 field staff
35
Attitudes: Challenges in MinistryChallenges in Working Among Remote Peoples
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Access Difficult
Health/SecurityConcerns
GovernmentResistant
ExpatsReluctant to Go
RemotePeoples
Resistant
NationalsReluctant to
Return
Top Challenge Second Challenge
48%
43%
33% 31%30%
15%
Top challenges:– Access– Health/Security Concerns
36
Attitudes: Use of Big GrantHow a US$60,000 Grant Would Be Invested
(from open-ended responses)
15%
17%
27%
30%
6%
9%
5%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Aircraft
Broadcasting
Computer/Internet
Transport Services
Two-wheeled Vehicles
Boats
Telecom
Trucks/Cars
Aviation is complex, so no surprise to see it low on priority list
Other responses related to aviation:
– Telecommunications– Transport Services
37
Attitudes: Transport Problems% Saying Issue is a "Big Problem" for Mission Work in Remote Areas
31%
49%
14%
17%
14%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Insufficient Options forTravel
Unreliable/unpredictableTravel
Safety/security Problems
Slow Travel
Difficulty TransportingCargo
Expense of Travel
Expense is top problem; a challenge for aviation
Cargo transport is an opportunity for aviation
Also, to a lesser degree, speed, safety & reliability
38
Air travel used moderately, as is boat and foot travel
Boat use much higher in Latin America than Africa or Asia
Behaviors: Travel ModesFrequency of Travel Modes to Remote Areas
(mean rating on 5-point scale)
2.4
2.0
3.22.9
3.7
2.9
1
2
3
4
5
MotorizedVehicle
Boat Airplane Foot Bicycle Train
Never
Always
39
Behaviors: Aviation UsageUsage of Mission Aviation Service
Often4%
Sometimes20%
Do Not Know9%
Cannot (unavailable)
51%
Used To0%
Have Not16%
Second half of survey specific to aviation
Mission aviation not seen as available in many areas
– Unavailable?– Unaware?
1 in 4 missions note use of aviation at some level
40
Barriers to Using Mission Aviation(mean rating on 5-point scale)
4.3
2.8
2.9
2.3
3.2
1 2 3 4 5
Image - sends the wrongimpression
Alternative modes oftransport are reliable and
affordable
Lack of fit with missionstrategy
Schedule/destinationsare inconvenient or
unavailable
Cost
No Barrier Great Barrier
Attitudes: Barriers to Aviation Use
Confirms cost issue and perception of unavailability
Few have problem with use of planes generally
41
Scenario: If Given an Airplane and Resources to Fly
Keep the plane, but let another ministry operate
it for us43%
Sell the plane and use the money for other
needs12%
Keep the plane and develop our own air
ministry23%
Give or trade the plane to another organization
22%
Anticipated Behavior: If Given Aircraft
2 of 3 missions would keep a plane if given one
Only 1 in 8 would sell it outright rather than work to keep it in mission service
42
Attitudes About Mission Aviation(mean rating on 5-point scale)
3.6
4.0
3.5
1.9
3.2
2.4
1 2 3 4 5
Small airplanes are a reminder of colonialism and asign of elite, privileged foreigners.
Mission aviation is useful in a few out-of-the-wayplaces but is mostly irrelevant to the future of
mission.
All peoples will not be reached without the continuinguse of small aircraft.
Mission aviation is much safer and more secure thanother transportation options.
National missionaries would like to be able to useairplanes more frequently.
Aviation enables ministry that would not otherwise bepossible.
Completely Disagree Completely Agree
Attitudes: Mission Aviation
In general, strong support for use of aviation in mission
Analysis/Ideas
44
Analysis / Ideas
Marketing/Communications– Movement from reactive to proactive, especially
among agencies that have few North Americans– Awareness: Potential users should be aware of the
opportunities to use mission aviation service– Benefits of mission aviation should be more
intentionally communicated to potential users (transportation consulting)
– Grants for marketing could be tied to follow-up funding based on increases in requests for service
45
Analysis / Ideas
Failure to Get to the Field– With partner approach (schools/bridge/agency), no
one accompanies student through the whole process– Students aren’t sure what they want to do; they need
an advocate/counselor– Potential role for IAMA or others: membership-based
career service for Christian aviation students– Could include internship clearinghouse– Should include commercial options, especially
given expanding nature of “mission”
46
Analysis / Ideas
Failure to Remain on the Field– Missionaries less likely to stay for a full career;
especially an issue for aviation due to initial cost– Lots of roles at home for former field staff, but…– …they can’t be publicized, because the staff are so
needed on the field– Require a portion of support placed in a deferred
fund, with substantial bonuses for extended service– Allow home assignments to be made public and
given honor
47
Analysis / Ideas
The Struggle to Integrate Nationals– Agencies committed to development of national
leaders, but training is a challenge & funding difficult – Meanwhile, agencies note that most people give to
individual aviators, not agencies– Consider expat-national counterpart program
Expat raises support for self and for counterpart Churches more likely to provide support w/link to national
48
Analysis / Ideas
What to Do With Second-Career Pilots?– Do something! – Research shows that pilots over 60 are no more
of a risk than those under 35 (though they may not be able to fly into 15o-slope jungle strips)
– Increasing opportunities for short-term or contract relief work, international flight training, mentoring
– As likely to get a decade or more of service from them as from many younger pilots
Phase 3: Future Scenarios
50
Process
Identify and prioritize evaluation criteria Identify and describe models/scenarios Evaluate scenarios
– Underlying assumptions– Anticipated/required conditions – Preferability based on criteria
51
Evaluation Criteria
Initial set of criteria, based on Phase 2 input:– Consistency with agency’s mission, vision, calling– Effective use of technology and information– Effective use of staff gifts and talents– Effective partnership with national churches– Effective cooperation/unity with other agencies and senders– Ability to reach/impact many people– Ability to impact areas traditionally closed to Christian work– Ability to address needs that cannot be met otherwise– Long-term viability of strategy– Ability to mobilize human and financial resources
How would you or your agency prioritize these? What additional criteria would you add?
52
Potential Models/Scenarios
The following slides outline a series of potential models/scenarios for the future of mission aviation
Most of these have been inspired by suggestions from mission-aviation stakeholders
Other models/scenarios may be added; suggestions are welcomed
53
Agile Provider
Summary: Servant of All, using efficiencies of scale to conduct a wide variety of aviation services, rapidly deploying and redeploying to maximize existing and emerging opportunities in a dynamic environment
Core Activities– Monitoring/evaluating opportunities– Logistics – managing resources for efficiency & effectiveness– Funding likely to come from many sources– Partnership with ministry and secular entities
54
Agile Provider
Extension/Partnership ActivitiesAbility to establish alternative/subsidiary corporate structures, as needed
– Coordination with alternative travel modes– Coordination with rural-development initiatives
Credit: Dave Bochman, MAF
55
Vertically Integrated Agency
Summary: Servant of the Sending Church, providing an efficient, integrated path for missionaries focused on learning and serving within a particular context.
Core Activities– Recruiting/Training/Certifying/Deploying– Internship Programs– Scholarship/Debt Management– FBO Management
56
Vertically Integrated Agency
Extension/Partnership Activities– Partnership with Local Churches (short-term
transport, interships, etc.)– FBO investment-opportunity evaluation– Consultant to other agencies
Credit: Don Starlin, Adventist World Aviation
57
Tribal Mobility Advocate
Summary: Servant to Indigenous Peoples, assisting in implementation of aviation and other mobility efforts at the initiative of local leadership using appropriate technologies
Core Activities – Evaluating/monitoring tribal mobility needs and interests– Connecting needs with appropriate technology– Identifying creative, appropriate financing– Training– Monitoring & Evaluating Effectiveness– Developing Models
58
Tribal Mobility Advocate
Extension/Partnership Activities – Public Advocacy/Awareness– Micro-enterprise Development– Identifying/Opening Markets for Tribal Produce/Goods
Credit: Steve Saint, I-TEC
Secular parallel: Survival International
59
Airdrop/Airlink Services
Summary: Air-based Servant of Isolated Rural Peoples, focusing on providing broad access to services with limited ground-based infrastructure
Core Activities – Identifying and communicating opportunities/needs – Manned and unmanned air drop of community development
resources (health, education)– Air-based communication network – Collaborating with national/international entities
60
Airdrop/Airlink Services
Extension/Partnership Activities – Literacy training– Medical missions– Microenterprise development (UAV delivery service) – Telecommunications partnerships – Christian broadcast/content providers
Credit: Robert Nicholls, Airdrop
61
Volunteer-driven Cost Leader
Summary: Servant to National Church Initiatives by providing restored aircraft and human resources, relying primarily on volunteer and contract labor
Core Activities:– Evaluating national needs and initiatives – Acquiring/restoring aircraft– Recruiting experienced volunteer and short-term laborers
62
Volunteer-driven Cost Leader
Extension/Partnership Activities: – Remote maintenance– Short-term trips– Partnership with corporate goodwill programs of
aviation suppliers
Credit: Doug Clements, Wings of Hope
63
Infrastructure Specialist
Summary: Servant to community development, sacrificing overt ministry opportunities to be an effective partner with national governments and the international development community.
Core Activities– Providing Community Air Service– Providing Consulting Services (to help establish standards &
regulation, criteria for service/evaluation)– Providing Education (training, value of air travel) – Collaborating with National/International Entities
64
Infrastructure Specialist
Extension/Partnership Activities– Community Health– Hospitality Development– Tourism Development– Medical Services Development– Transportation Systems Integration
Credit: Jon Lewis, Partners International
65
Provider Cooperative
Summary: Servant of Service Providers, enabling small and not-so-small operators to gain the advantages of standardization, collective bargaining, shared communication, etc.
Core Activities:– Developing cooperative membership (recruiting, serving,
informing)– Developing standards and cooperative initiatives – Negotiating with suppliers– Coordinating grant-seeking efforts (shared and independent)– Monitoring activities to limit duplication of effort
66
Provider Cooperative
Extension/Partnership Activities:– Partnering with training institutes to develop aviator-
development efficiencies– Potential partnership with a commercial counterpart
Credit: Jon Egeler, MSI & John Armstrong, IAMANon-aviation Parallel: Parable Christian Stores
67
Pioneer Specialist
Summary: Servant of Pioneer Missions, opening access to locations where ministry is not yet occurring
Core Activities: – Surveying Needs/Opportunities/Sustainability – Assisting in developing initial relationships in coordination with
pioneer mission agencies– Helipad/Airstrip Construction– Efficient Entry/Exit Strategies– Multi-modal transportation logistics
68
Pioneer Specialist
Extension/Partnership Activities:– Network of aviation partners to sustain service– Disaster Assistance (access reconstruction)
Inspirations: Helimission, JAARS
69
Global Training Specialist
Summary: Servant of Students, providing varied, extensive training on a globally distributed basis
Core Activities:– Establishing Distributed Training Centers
(or network of training-center partners)– Recruiting/Qualifying Students– Monitoring Mission Aviator Demand/Supply– Developing Incentives for Mission Service
70
Global Training Specialist
Extension/Partnership Activities:– Aviator Student Fellowships– ESL Language Training– Cultural-exchange Programs– Strategic Relationships with Commercial Airlines– Business-development