Flexible Expansion: NATO Enlargement in an Era of Austerity and Uncertainty

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    FOREIGN POLICY PAPERS

    FLEXIBLE EXPANSION

    NATO Enlargement in an Era of Austerity and Uncertainty

    MARK SIMAKOVSKY

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    2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

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    views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

    About the Asmus Policy Entrepreneurs Fellowship

    Tis paper is the nal product o the authors Asmus Policy Entrepreneurs Fellowship. Te German Marshall Fund o theUnited States launched this program in 2011 to honor Ronald D. Asmus, GMF Brussels oce executive director and direc-

    tor o strategic planning. Asmus, a renowned policy entrepreneur who dedicated his lie to the principle o reedom, passed

    away on April 30, 2011.

    Asmus Fellows must be U.S. or European citizens under the age o 40. Te ellowship enables them to pursue a project that

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    gmus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-ellowship/

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    On the cover: Olga_Stanis

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    Flexible Expansion

    NATO Enlargement in an Era of Austerity and Uncertainty

    Foreign Policy Papers

    July 2013

    B Mk Skvk

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    Flexible Expansion 1

    Introduction

    1

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    The legacy of NATO

    enlargement is

    confronted by an

    inward looking Euro

    and a distracted U.

    unwilling to commi

    the political will andresources to reinteg

    the remaining outs

    looking in.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States2

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    Candidate countries

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    Flexible Expansion 3

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    Flexible Expansion 5

    The skeptics felt NA

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    The Impasse of Bucharest

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States6

    Any public effort to

    anage divisions within

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    Flexible Expansion 7

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    Flexible Expansion 9

    There is a real likel

    that Barack Obama

    be the first preside

    since George H.W.

    Bush to not oversee

    an enlargement rou

    during his tenure.

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    Current Obstacles

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States10

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    Flexible Expansion 11

    Many of the countr

    on Europes periph

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    reform, more corru

    more authoritarian

    and more divided t

    their predecessorswho achieved earlie

    admission to NATO

    the EU.

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    Flexible Expansion 13

    NATO should

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    A Flexible Enlargement

    Strategy for the Future4

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States14

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    Consolidating gains

    made in Europe will

    volve shoring up NATO

    defense capabilities,

    finishing the job of

    expansion into the

    Balkans, and adjustingNATO partnership

    mechanisms.

    http://www.stripes.com/reporters/John_Vandiver?author=John_Vandiverhttp://www.stripes.com/reporters/John_Vandiver?author=John_Vandiver
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    Flexible Expansion 15

    A solution to the cu

    status quo would b

    depoliticize the MA

    debate and divorce

    political objectives

    the technical reform

    being undertaken bMAP and ANP coun

    v . Ahh Mh , NATO

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    Policy 3

    NATO h h

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    v h hv

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    h h Nh A C (NAC),

    wh j . I w

    v h , wh

    h q w h

    MAP.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States16

    In an era of fiscal

    austerity and rising

    threats, allies need to

    old potential members

    to a higher standard

    an their predecessors.

    Policy 4

    C E h vv

    NATO h EU h

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    h h. A

    h C W w w

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    Step 2 - Prevent RollbackPolicy 5

    Pv k h

    w q h v

    7 Wz, Rh. G Ih: NATO S, C- G C Gw. World Politics Review, F. ,

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    Flexible Expansion 17

    k k hv h h -. Th

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    Policy 6

    I U.S. h

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    For the EU to be mo

    effective and for

    partners to receive

    full benefit of West

    economic, political,

    security assistance

    the EU and NATO wneed to harmonize

    engagement beyon

    what has been don

    before.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States18

    Ow G w, h wh R, h

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    Step 3 - Plant Seeds for the FuturePolicy 7

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    k hw k v

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    Germany cannot be

    seen as the obstacle,

    but as an underutilized

    partner.

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    Flexible Expansion 19

    v G . Th v G v h h v

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    Ch S D NATO. M , Sh, G. G M M. Weekly Standard.Mh 5,

    Georgias decision

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    Russias provocatio

    in South Ossetia m

    allies question Geo

    trustworthiness

    as a partner andcommitment to

    peacefully resolving

    territorial and ethni

    disputes.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States20

    k NATO h h wW , ,

    q. NATO

    h EU k -

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    Policy 8

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    R, h

    C S C E FA. Hk 975

    Without engaging

    Russia in a long-term

    strategic framework

    that embeds it into

    Euro-Atlantic security,

    there will be no hope

    of securing andstrengthening the

    countries on Russias

    borders.

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    Flexible Expansion 21

    h.

    P h w vv -P R, whh h

    h k R

    vw h W.

    Policy 9

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    v NATO

    v h NATO

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    Policy 10

    Ph h

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    S, G. The NATO Enlargement Debate. (P998)4 B, Dv. Sw Sw NATO, Foreign Policy,M 7, .

    h E, k h .

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    z h h U.S.-EU

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    -h

    The United States

    remains the most

    trusted partner for

    NATO aspirants, as

    its moral authority,

    power, and experie

    on enlargement areunparalleled.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States22

    v , h . Th T-TIP

    h w v

    v,

    j, wh h h A. N

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    Flexible Expansion 23

    Th NATO Ch S w h h hv

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    Conclusion

    5

    There is a need to

    break out of the cu

    dysfunctional statu

    on enlargement.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States24

    jv. Th S, whh h

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    .

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    O F F I C E S

    Washington Berlin Paris BrusselsBelgrade Ankara Bucharest Warsaw Tunis

    .mf.