Fish Demand 2020

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people science environment partners

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

IFPRI

Fish to 2020:

Supply and Demand inChanging Global Markets

Siwa MsangiMark W. RosegrantEnvironment and Production Technology

DivisionIFPRI

Global Aquaculture Meeting

June 20, 2005Seattle



IFPRI

Outline of Presentation

Fish supply – capture vs. aquacultureFish demand – food and feed in the1990s

Brief description of projections modelto 2020

A look at the future: projectionsresults

Main issues and policy implications



IFPRI

Fish Supply –

Capture vs. Aquaculture



IFPRI Fish Supply (1)

AquacultureRises from 7% (1973), 12% (1985) to over 30% (2002) of total production

Responsible for around 70% of total growth in food fish production by

weight from 1985-2002

Capture Fisheries

Slow growth sincelate 1980s; steadyat around 95 millionmetric tons in late1990s

Majority of stocksare fully or over-exploited

Global Fish Production

020

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Year

m

i l l i o n m e

t r i c t o n s

Capture Aquaculture



IFPRI

Fish Supply (2) –Capture Fisheries

Developing CountriesChina – largest producer whose share in global capture food fishproduction increased from 9% in 1973 to 21% in 1997

Southeast Asia – tripled production from 5 to 15.63 million metric

tons in 1973 to 2002; mainly contributed by Indonesia, Thailand

Developed Countries

Japan – decline inproduction due to EEZand dwindling stocks offish such as pilchard

Production declinedfrom 33.5 to 28 millionmetric tons during 1970to 2002

Capture Fisheries Production

0

20

40

60

80

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Year

m i l l i o n m e

t r i c t o n

Developed countries Developing countries



IFPRI

Fish Supply (3) –Aquaculture

Developing CountriesProduced 58% of globalaquaculture products in1973 to over 90% in 2002with 2.76 to 47 millionmetric tons during 1973-

2002Boom in aquaculture ismainly attributed toexpanded area

Asia accounts for 87%production by weight

Aquaculture Production

05

1015202530354045

50

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Year

m i l l i o n m e

t r i c t o n s

Developed countries Developing countries

China’s share is 68% in 1997 vs. 32% in 1973Part of Chinese government policies topromote aquaculture as a means to improvedomestic food supply and increase foreignexchange earnings including policies targetedat seed and feed inputs



IFPRI

Fish Demand –

Food and Feed



IFPRI Food Fish Consumption (1)

3.391.361.945.4World

-0.428.129.425Developed world

5.763.232.520.4Developing world

0.57.97.47.6Japan

1.55.44.52.9United States

03.73.72.6Sub-Saharan Africa

0.63.83.62.1Latin America4.34.52.81.8India

3.111.37.95.4Southeast Asia

11.833.28.74.9China

1985-1997199719851973

Annualgrowth rate

(%)

Total consumption(million metric tons)

Region



IFPRI Food Fish Consumption (2)Developing Countries

Important source of animal protein accounting for 20% in low-income food deficit countries vs. 13% in industrialized countries

Growth in food fish consumption with increased share from 45%in 1973 to 70% in 1997

China dominates aggregate consumption of fisheries productsfrom 11% in 1973 to 36% in 1997

Sub-Saharan Africa – stagnant per capita fish consumption forthe last 30 years

Developed CountriesAggregate consumption level declined since 1985 as aconsequence of lower per capita consumption in the former

Eastern Bloc countries



IFPRI Feed Fish Demand (1)

0.16,1336,0944,514World

-2.92,9824,2733,637Developed world

4.73,1481,821877Developing world

-3.07311,0.52828Japan

-4.5267463334United States

1.6141215Sub-Saharan Africa

-3.3451672483Latin America-2.0253217India

9.8728238135Southeast Asia

9.11,573554112China

1985-1997199719851973

Annualgrowth rate

(%)

Total use(thousand metric tons)

Region



IFPRI Feed Fish Demand (2)Fishmeal and fish oil – derived from wild-caught fisheriesused for feeding terrestrial livestock and farmed fish

Demand is determined by demand for livestock and fish,influenced by feed conversion efficiency, relative prices of

competing feeds, outlook for competing sectors that alsoconsume fishmeal and fish oil

Demand for fishmeal and fish oil has increased

significantly in China and Southeast Asia with rapidgrowing poultry, pig and aquaculture sectors

Demand in other regions has declined with substitutions of

maize and soybean for fishmeal



IFPRI

IMPACT Model

The Policy Analysis Tool



IFPRI IMPACT Overview (1)

IMPACT is a food and agricultural sectorsupply and demand model36 countries and regions

28 commodities: 6 fish, 6 livestock, cereals,roots & tubers, milk, eggs, soybeans, oils,oilcakes, and meals

Model specified as a set of country-levelsupply and demand equations



IFPRI

IMPACT Overview (2)

Country-level models are linked to the restof the world through tradeWorld food prices are determined annually

at levels that clear international commoditymarketsModel output: prices, production and

consumption levels, net trade bycommodity and region, annually to 2020



IFPRI

IMPACT Fish Categories

Low-Value Food Fish (carp, sardines)

High-Value Finfish (salmon, tuna)Crustaceans (shrimp, crabs)

Mollusks (clams, oysters, squid)

All the above are disaggregated into wild-caught and farm-raised, plus:

FishmealFish oil



IFPRI

Scenarios for Sensitivity Analysis

Baseline (best estimate)Faster Aquaculture Expansion (moreinvestment)

Slower Aquaculture Expansion (lessinvestment)

Ecological Collapse (very pessimistic)



IFPRI

Baseline Projections



IFPRI

Per Capita Demand for Fish Products,

1997-2020, Baseline Scenario

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Developed

Latin America

China

WANASoutheast Asia

ub-Saharan Africa

India

1997 Increase, 1997-2020(kg/cap)



IFPRI

Global per capita Food Consumption,

Baseline Scenario

17.115.8Total food fish 1.41.2Crustaceans

3.22.6Mollusks4.24.5High value finfish

8.27.5Low value food fish

(kg/person/yr)

20201997



IFPRI

Food Fish Demand, 1997 and

Projected 2020, Baseline Scenario

5

14

28

53

17

7

222933

11

010

20

3040

50

60

China SE Asia India OtherDeveloping

Developed

1997 2020(million mt)



IFPRI

Share of World Fish Production (%),

Baseline Scenario

212756All Developed

5613EU 15

4617Japan

383733Other Developing

413610China

202019971973



IFPRI

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1997 actual

Most likely

Faster aquaculture

Slower aquaculture

Ecological collapse

Projected Food Fish Supply to 2020 ('000 mt)

Developed Developing

27% 73%

21% 79%

20% 80%

23% 77%

22% 78%

Developing Countries continue to Dominate Production

Share of World Fish Production (%)

All Scenarios



IFPRI

Capture32%

Aqua-culture

68%

Capture

69%

Aqua-

culture31%

Share of Aquaculture in FishProduction, 1997 and Increase from

1997-2020, Baseline Scenario

Fish production 1997 Increase in fish production,1997-2020



IFPRI

Growing Share of Aquaculture to Total Production

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1997 actual

Most likely

Faster aquaculture expansion

Slower aquaculture expansion

Ecological collapse

Production ('000 mt)

Capture Culture

69% 31%

59% 41%

52% 48%

65% 35%

49% 51%

Share of Aquaculture in Fish Production(All Scenarios)



IFPRI

Net Exports of Fish Products (liveweight, mmt), Baseline Scenario

-2.81-4.05Developed

-1.690.18Otherdeveloping

3.052.44LatinAmerica

0.430.12India

0.481.13SE Asia0.540.18China

20201997



IFPRI

International Fish and Meat Prices,1997 and Projected 2020,

Baseline Scenario

5155

1797

575

717

5375

2114

488

737

7607

2288

1142

785

4500

1690

489

735

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

High-valuefinfish

Low-value foodfish

Fishmeal

Poultry

(US$/mt)

Baseline Slower Aq. Eco. Collapse 1997



IFPRI

Poor to Feel the Pinch of Rising Fish Prices

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Low-value Food Fish Poultry Meat

Fish meal & oilefficiency

Ecological collapse

Slower aquaculture expansion

Faster aquacultureexpansion

Most likely (current trend)

Fish Prices Under All Scenarios



IFPRI

Main Issues Raised bythe Projection Results



IFPRI

Where will Supply Come From?

Capture still accounted for over 2/3 of

world food fish in late 1990s

But 2/3 of the projected 40% growth in

global food fish production to 2020 willbe farmed

The big growth in aquaculture isprojected to be in Asia



IFPRI

The Future of Prices

Fish are the only food commodities

projected to increase in (real) priceHigh-value finfish and crustacean realprices will increase by 15% through 2020;low-value fish prices will rise by 6%

Increased food security risks

Fishmeal & oil prices projected to rise by18%, and will be more volatile in future



IFPRI

Prices and Scenarios

Only scenario that lowers price of low-value food fish is higher levels ofaquaculture investment

Ecological collapse in capture fisheries

results in very large price increases



IFPRI

Outlook for Trade

Developing countries will remain net importers

of low-value fish, exporters of high-value fishFisheries trade is likely to be increasinglySouth-South

More rapid aquaculture growth results inhigher net exports from South-North

Pessimistic scenarios lead to lower South-North exports



IFPRI

China is a Major Player (for sure)

Concerns have been raised about the accuracy

of capture data for ChinaBuilding the “Pessimistic” view into the modelonly reduces world consumption by 1 kg/cap in

2020, mostly within China itself, due to priceadjustments elsewhere

Discounting Chinese data (incl. aquaculture)by 20% does not significantly alter the trendconclusions of this policy exercise



IFPRI

Conclusions



IFPRI

Increasing Pressure on

Capture Fisheries

Demand pressures will push prices

higher, which will further increaseenvironmental pressure

Literature suggests that community-based coastal management will becritical in developing countries

These higher prices will also pushaquaculture development forward…



IFPRI

Investment in Aquaculture is Key

Higher investment in aquaculture raises percapita food fish consumption by almost 2 kg perperson in 2020

Investment in aquaculture is the best way toincrease access of the poor to fish (the onlyscenario with a decline in price of low-valuefood fish)

Targeting aquaculture investment to non-carnivorous species will be most effective froma food security standpoint





IFPRI

Opportunities and Challenges

Need to find the right mix of policy and

institutional support to improvegovernance and access to resources andinformationNot clear whether private sector incentivesexist to expand sustainable technologiesfor small-scale, non-carnivorousaquaculture (scope for policy exists here)Tremendous opportunities exist… as wellas tremendous risks for the environmentand poor consumers/producers of fish



IFPRI

Thank You!

Documents

Fish Demand 2020