First Quarter Economic Report 2013Singapore Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013-40-30-20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 韓國 Korea 台灣 Taiwan 新加坡 Singapore 以美金計價按年增減率(%)

1 1

First Quarter Economic Report 2013 &

Updated economic forecasts for 2013 10 May 2013

Hong Kong SAR Government

2 2

Economic performance in 2013 Q1

3 3

Economy grew by 2.8% in Q1

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

實質增減率 (%) Rate of change in real terms (%)

本地生產總值 Gross Domestic Product

按年增減 Year-on-year change

經季節性調整按季增減 Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

2.8% 0.2%

4 4

External sector

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30實質增減率 (%) Rate of change in real terms (%)

貨物出口 Exports of goods

5 5

Exports of goods accelerated in growth, though with considerable volatilities during the quarter



8.8%

1.8%

6 6

Exports to Mainland and Asia remained the bright spot, yet the US and EU markets weakened again

Hong Kong's merchandise exports in volume terms

Year-on-year rate of change (%)

EU

USA

Mainland

Japan Other Asia

2012 Q1 -9.7 -7.1 -7.8 -1.5 -7.4

Q2 -12.5 0.1 -0.6 1.5 -2.2

Q3 -14.1 -0.1 9.7 3.3 -4.4

Q4 -4.8 1.4 12.1 0.4 -2.4

Annual -10.4 -1.3 3.4 0.9 -4.1

2013 Q1 -5.4 -5.0 8.5 -4.9 3.8

7 7

Exports of services strengthened further…

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25服務輸出

Exports of services




2.4%

4.9%

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40運輸服務 Transportation services 與貿易有關的服務 Trade-related services 金融及商用服務 Financial and business services 旅遊服務 Travel services

按年實質增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

3.2%

-1.3%

15.3%

2.7%

8 8

…mainly supported by vibrant tourism, while other service exports also saw some relative improvements

9 9

Domestic sector

10 10

Private consumption grew strongly on stable labour market and improved incomes

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


私人消費開支 Private Consumption Expenditure



7.0% 4.9%

11 11 (*) 增減小於0.05%。 (*) Change less than 0.05%.

註︰ Note :

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

按年實質增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

機器、設備及知識產權產品開支 Expenditure on machinery, equipment

and intellectual property products

本地固定資本形成總額 Gross domestic fixed

capital formation

樓宇及建造開支 Expenditure on building

and construction

-4.0%

* -2.2%

Investment spending fell back slightly

12 12

Labour market

13 13

Unemployment rate edged up, but still at low level

註: 除整體失業率外，其他均為未經季節性調整數字。 Note: Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.

Q11999

Q12000

Q12001

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

失業率 (%) Unemployment rate (%)

低技術勞工 Lower-skilled workers

整體 Overall

專業及管理員工 Professional and managerial staff

2.2%

3.5% 3.7%

14

Incomes continued to improve

Year-on-year rate of change

Nominal Real

Index of Payroll per person engaged (2012 Q4) 5.9% 2.0%

Median household income (2013 Q1) 5.8% 2.0%

Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees in the lowest decile group (2013 Q1)

7.7% 3.4%

14

15 15

Inflation

16 16

基本綜合消費物價指數按年變動率的主要組成項目 Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index by major component

0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0

1.4 1.8 2.1

2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2

-0.1

0.1 0.3

0.6

1.1

1.7

2.3 2.6

2.5 2.1

1.7 1.5 1.5

0.8

1.5

2.0 2.4

3.7

5.0

6.1 6.4

5.9

5.1

4.0 3.8 3.8

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13

其他 Others 交通 Transport 私人房屋租金 Private housing rentals 食品 Food 基本綜合消費物價指數 Underlying CCPI

(%)

Underlying inflation held steady at 3.8% in Q1 2013

17 17

Local property market

The Government always vigilant to housing bubble risks

• Raising flat supply through increasing land supply as top policy priority

• Counter-cyclical measures to manage demand, including SSD (Nov 2010), enhanced SSD and BSD (Oct 2012), and across-the-board rise in ad valorem stamp duty rates (Feb 2013)

• Six rounds of macro-prudential measures on mortgage lending business since Oct-2009 to safeguard financial stability

18

200

400

600

800

1 000

1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013

非本地個人買家 Purchase by non-local individuals

非本地公司買家 Purchase by non-local companies

宗數 Number

2012年1月至10月平均宗數 Jan-Oct 2012 average number of transactions

-78%

非本地買家成交宗數 Number of non-local buyers transactions

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013

確認人交易 Confirmor

6個月內轉售 Resale within 6 months

6至12個月內轉售 Resale within 6 to 12 months

12至24個月內轉售 Resale within 12 to 24 months

交易宗數 Number of transactions

資料來源：稅務局 Source: Inland Revenue Department.

2010年1月至11月平均宗數 Jan-Nov 2010 average number of transactions

-95%

SSD

短期轉售成交宗數 Number of short-term resale transactions

SSD curbed speculative activities effectively

BSD also stemmed non-local demand

19

Supply side measures yielding some positive results

Consent to commence general building and superstructure work

Completions

Medium term supply (end-year)

2009 10 300 7 157 53 000

2010 10 100 13 405 59 000

2011 14 100 9 449 62 000

2012 18 200 10 100 67 000

2013 (F) - 13 600

2014 (F) - 15 800

20

21 21

Property market softened after the latest round of demand management measures

住宅價格在三月回軟 Flat prices softened in March

100

110

120

130

140

150

01/12 04/12 07/12 10/12 01/13

指數(一九九七年十月=100) Index (1997 Oct=100)

整體住宅價格指數 Overall residential

price index

70平方米以下住宅價格指數 Residential price index

(less than 70 sq m)

10月 2012

2月 2013

100平方米或以上住宅價格指數 Residential price index

(100 sq m or above)

0

4 000

8 000

2 000

6 000

09/10 01/11 05/11 09/11 01/12 05/12 09/12 01/13

買賣合約數目 Agreements received

交投量縮減 Trading activities dwindled

4月 2013

2010年1月至11月平均數 2010 Jan-Nov average

11月 2011

10月 2012

2月 2013

1

1

22 22

Mortgage payment to income ratio worsened further

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

1993-2012年平均值(1993-2012 average)

註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income

of households (excluding those living in public housing).

負擔較輕More

Affordable

負擔較重Less

Affordable2013年第一季 : 56

2013Q1 : 56

23 23

Outlook for the remaining of 2013

US economy, while expanding moderately, was unsteady at times

24

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

美國實質國內

生產總值

US real GDP

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13

環比折年增減率(%)Annualised rate of change (%)

指數

Index

美國供應管理協會

非製造業生產指數

US ISM non-manufacturing Index

美國供應管理協會

製造業生產指數

US ISM manufacturing Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

60

80

100

120

1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13

指數

Index

歐元區綜合採購

經理指數(右標線)

Euro Area Composite PMI

(RHS)

歐元區經濟信心指數

(左標線)

Euro Area economicsentimental indicator (LHS)

Europe mired in recession

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12

按季實質增減率 (%)Q-t-q rate of change in real terms (%)

歐元區國內生產總值

Euro Area GDP

25

Other Asian economies also dragged by the lull in the advanced economies

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

韓國

Korea台灣

Taiwan新加坡

Singapore

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

韓國

Korea台灣

Taiwan新加坡

Singapore

以美金計價按年增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%)

按年實質增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

國內生產總值

Gross domestic product貨物出口

Exports of goods

26

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/130

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1/10 4/10 7/1010/101/11 4/11 7/1110/111/12 4/12 7/1210/121/13

按年增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

按年增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

中國內地固定資產投資

Mainland China's fixed assets investment

中國內地社會消費品

零售實質總額

Mainland China's retail sales of consumer goods in real terms

中國內地製造業採購經理指數

- 新出口訂單(左標線，前移五個月)Mainland China's manufacturing PMI

- new export orders (LHS, shifted forward by 5 months)

中國內地出口(右標線)Mainland China's

exports (RHS)

滙豐中國製造業

採購經理指數

(左標線，前移五個月)HSBC China

manufacturing PMI (LHS, shifted forward

by 5 months)

指數

Index

27 27

Mainland’s external trade remained volatile, but domestic demand was still solid

20.7%

11.7%

48.6

50.4

14.7%

28 28

Global growth forecast for 2013

2013年亞洲新興工業化經濟體的經濟增長預測是根據國際貨幣基金會對個別經濟體的增長預測計算出來的。 Economic growth forecast for Asia NIEs in 2013 is calculated based on IMF’s growth forecast on individual economies.

註︰ Note :

3.2

2.2

-0.6

7.8

6.6

1.7

3.3

1.9

-0.3

8.0 7.1

2.8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

年度實質增減率 (%)Annual rate of change in real terms (%)

美國

US歐元區

Eurozone中國內地

Mainland 全球

World發展中亞洲

Developing Asia亞洲新興

工業化經濟體

Asia NIEs

國際貨幣基金組織2013年經濟增長預測IMF forecasts for 2013 economic growth2012年經濟增長

2012 economic growth

2013年4月預測Apr 2013 forecast

2013年1月預測Jan 2013 forecast

29 29

H.K. economy forecast to grow by 1.5-3.5% in 2013

-8-6-4-202468

101214

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(預測)

(Forecast)

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

十年趨勢增長

10-year trend growth (2003-2012) 1.5-3.5%

30 30

Food inflation to remain tame Imported inflation is receding

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13

按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)

%

% %

2.6%

消費物價指數-基本食品 CCPI - basic foodstuffs

內地消費物價指數-食品 Mainland CPI - food

4.0%

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

進口價格 Import price

食品進口價格 Import price of foodstuffs

消費品進口價格 Import price of consumer goods


1.1

2.01.8

-5

0

5

10

15

Q11999

Q12000

Q12001

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012


5.1% 5.9%

名義工資指數 Nominal wage index

名義就業人士平均薪金指數 Nominal index of payroll per person engaged

31 31

Wage pressure eased somewhat

1/07 1/09 1/11 1/13-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


基本綜合消費物價指數 - 私人房屋租金(右標線)

Underlying CCPI - Private housing rental (RHS)

新簽訂住宅租金 (24月移動平均數) (左標線) Fresh letting residential rental (24 months moving average)

(LHS)

32 32

Fresh letting rentals softening visibly of late

In the near term inflation still affected by the lagged effect of rising residential rental last year

Fresh letting residential rentals % change over 3 months ago

2012 Mar -1.1

Jun 6.0

Sep 3.6

Dec 2.4

2013 Mar 0.2

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-25

0

25

50

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-25

0

25

50

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-25

0

25

50

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


名義經濟增長 (四季移動平均, 左標線)

Nominal economic growth (4QMA, LHS)

寫字樓租金成本(右標線) Office rental cost(RHS)

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)

零售總額 (四季移動平均, 左標線)

Retail sales value (4QMA, LHS)

商舖租金成本(右標線) Shop rental cost(RHS)

33 33

Rise in office rental receding…

…shop rental still elevated, but also with slightly tapered rise recently

-4

0

4

8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

基本綜合消費物價指數

Underlying CCPI


整體綜合消費物價指數

Headline CCPI

(預測)(Forecast)

4.5% 4.2%

34 34

Room for further easing in inflation limited; inflation expected to edge up in coming months

35 35

Latest economic forecasts for 2013 as a whole

Forecasts as released on 27 February Latest forecasts

Real GDP growth 1.5-3.5% 1.5-3.5%

Headline inflation 4.5% 4.5%

Underlying inflation 4.2% 4.2%

36

Thank you

PresentationEconomic performance in 2013 Q1 External sector Domestic sector Labour market Inflation Local property market Outlook for the remaining of 2013

Documents

First Quarter Economic Report 2013Singapore Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013-40-30-20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 韓國 Korea 台灣 Taiwan 新加坡 Singapore 以美金計價按年增減率(%)