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Fire Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants
Nathan SiuOffice of Nuclear Regulatory Research
Lecture: FPE 580R – Fire Risk Assessment and PolicyWorcester Polytechnic University
December 2, 2015
PreludeWhat are we talking about and why?
2
How it started…
• Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant (3/22/75)
• Candle initiated cable tray fire; water suppression delayed; complicated shutdown
• Second-most challenging event in U.S. nuclear power plant operating history
• Spurred changes in requirements and analysis
3
Prelude
8.5m 11.5m
3m
Adapted from NUREG-0050
Browns Ferry Timeline
4
Prelude
Current Issues – An Example
• High Energy Arc Faults (HEAF) in cabinets
• Operational events, e.g.,– Robinson (2010)– Onagawa (2011)
• Potentially important contributor to fire risk
• Multi-national experimental program
5
From “Roadmap for Attaining Realism in Fire PRAs,” NEI, December 2010. (ML103430372)
Prelude
A more recent view…
OECD/NEA HEAF Project
480V switchgear, 42 kA, 8 secProject information: http://www.oecd-nea.org/jointproj/heaf.html
6
Prelude
7
Outline of Talk
• Prelude• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
Overview• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) at the
NRC• Fire PRA Methodology• Fire PRA History and Results• Current Challenges• Closing Thoughts
Prelude
Key Messages
• NRC uses PRA to support regulatory decision making (day-to-day and major decisions).
• Fire is a potentially important contributor to nuclear power plant risk.
• The general approach for performing fire PRA is well understood and well accepted.
• Details matter. Concerns with the realism of specific models affect confidence in overall results and the transition to risk-informed fire protection, and are spurring R&D.
• PRA is a tool, not an end. Fire PRA R&D is focused on improvements that will support practical risk management.
8
Prelude
NRC OverviewWho we are and what we do
9
NRC Mission
“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission licenses and regulates the Nation’s civilian use of radioactive materials to protect public health and safety, promote the common defense and security, and protect the environment.”
- NUREG-1614 (NRC Strategic Plan)
10
NRC Overview
NRC Functions
11
NRC Overview
NRC Organization
• Headquarters + 4 Regional Offices
• 5 Commissioners• ~4000 staff• Annual budget ~$1B• Website: www.nrc.gov• Information Digest:
NUREG-1350 V27
12
NRC Overview
PRA at the NRCHow we define and estimate risk, and why
13
On the Definition of “Risk”
• Triplet (vector) definition (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981): {si , Ci , pi }– What can go wrong?– What are the consequences?– How likely is it?
• Common definition (∑𝑖𝑖 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 × 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖) does not capture difference between high-probability/low-consequence events and low-probability/high-consequence events
14
PRA at the NRC
From Farmer, F.R., “Reactor safety and siting: a proposed risk criterion,” Nuclear Safety, 8, 539-548(1967).
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
• A systems-oriented engineering analysis process that answers the risk triplet questions
• Unique/challenging analysis features– Sparse data– Explicit treatment of uncertainties– Cross-disciplinary scope
• Distinguishing features (nuclear power plant PRAs)– Plant operational mode– Hazards considered– Scenario endpoints
• Also called “Probabilistic Safety Assessment” (PSA)
15
PRA at the NRC
PRA (cont.)
• Benefits (as compared with alternative analysis approaches)– Aimed at decision support– Engineering-oriented– Integrated– Systematic– Realistic– Supportive of “what-if” analyses– Open
• Typically involves event tree and fault tree analysis (but doesn’t have to)
16
PRA at the NRC
Example Event Tree
17
PRA at the NRC
Example Fault Tree
18
PRA at the NRC
Why PRA: 1995 PRA Policy Statement
• “The use of PRA technology should be increased in all regulatory matters to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data and in a manner that complements the NRC’s deterministic approach and supports the NRC’s traditional defense-in-depth philosophy…”
• A probabilistic approach extends a traditional, deterministic approach to regulation, by:(1)Allowing consideration of a broader set of potential challenges
to safety, (2)providing a logical means for prioritizing these challenges
based on risk significance, and (3)Allowing consideration of a broader set of resources to defend
against these challenges.
19
PRA at the NRC
What: All NRC Functions
20
PRA at the NRC
Risk Assessment
Who: NRC Staff, Contractors, and Others
• NRC Staff (HQ and Regions)– Analysts– Reviewers
• National Laboratories• Universities
– Contracts– Grants– Fellowships
• Cooperating Organizations– Other government agencies– Industry (licensees, owners groups,
R&D)– International (IAEA, OECD/NEA)
• Standards Organizations• Public
– Industry– PRA/PSA community– General public
21
PRA at the NRC
NRR
NRO
NSIR
NMSS
RES
Regions
How: Risk-Informed Decision Making
22
PRA at the NRC
22
The proposed change meets the current regulations unless
it is explicitly related to a requested exemption or rule
change
The proposed change is consistent with the defense-in-
depth philosophy The proposed change maintains sufficient safety
margins
When proposed changes result in an increase in core damage frequency and/or risk, the
increases should be small and consistent with the intent of the
Commission’s Safety Goal Policy Statement
The impact of the proposed change should be monitored
using performance measurement strategies
Integrated Decision Making
ChernobylTMI
When: A PRA Timeline
23
1940 1950 19701960 1980 1990 20102000 2020
PRA at the NRC
NUREG-1150
AECcreated
WASH-740
Fukushima
IndianPoint
WASH-1400
NRCcreated
IPE/IPEEE
Atomic Energy Act“No undue risk”
SafetyGoalPolicy
PRAPolicy
Price-Anderson(non-zero risk)
RG 1.174
ASME/ANSPRA Standard
RevisedReactor Oversight
Level 3 PRA
Risk Management• NRC’s risk-informed decisions can be industry-wide or
licensee-specific– Industry-wide decisions (e.g., new regulations) consider effect on
operating fleet– Licensee applications are voluntary (PRAs are not required); NRC
reviews and approves applications• NRC is currently exploring means to increase use of risk
information in decision making
24
PRA at the NRC
From U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission “A Proposed Risk Management Regulatory Framework,” NUREG-2150, 2012.
Fire PRA MethodologyTailoring the approach to meet analysis needs
25
Before tripAfter trip1 hour1 day1 week
3300 MWt260 MWt
50 MWt15 MWt
7 MWt
Nuclear Design 101: How Things Work
• Risk = {si, Ci, pi}• Nuclear fission →
heat → steam → electricity
• Chain reaction controlled/stopped by control rods
• Heat generation continues after chain reaction is stopped (“decay heat”)
26
Fire PRA
Nuclear Power Plant Design Features
• General Design Criteria (10 CFR Part 50, Appendix A)
http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=5aa0f7b9ce8da0f9bd8aa303f964c67a&mc=true&node=ap10.1.50_1150.a&rgn=div9
• Key safety principles– Defense-in-depth– Single failure criterion and
redundancy– Diversity
• Robust structures, separation
27
Fire PRA
Why Pay Attention to Fire?
• Actual events + study results => Potentially important contributor (Completeness)
• Single fire event might affect multiple systems, structures, and components (Dependencies)– P{A and B} ≠ P{A} x P{B} – Common enclosures– Defeat separation– Effects on plant operators
• Nature of scenario affects fixes (Risk Management)
28
Fire PRA Methodology
Fire PRA Methodological Framework
• Performed as part of plant PRA
• Elements mirror NPP fire protection defense-in-depth
• Basic methodology developed and applied in early 1980s
• Refinements added over time (NUREG/CR-6850)
• Analysis is iterative• Current work focused on
improving data and specific models
29
Fire PRA Methodology
Fire Frequency Analysis
• Objectives– Identify and characterize
potentially significant fire scenarios
– Estimate scenario frequencies
• Data: historical fire events• Estimation
– Generic– Plant-specific
30
Fire PRA Methodology
Equipment Damage Analysis
• Objectives– Identify potentially significant
combinations of equipment that can be damaged by a fire scenario
– Estimate conditional probabilities of equipment failure modes, given a fire scenario
• Underlying model: competition between damage and suppression processes
31
Fire PRA Methodology
Damage occurs if tdamage < tsuppression
Equipment Damage Analysis Elements
32
Fire PRA Methodology
Equipment Damage Analysis (cont.)
• Prediction of fire environment– Correlations– Zone models– CFD models
• Equipment response/component fragility– Temperature and/or heat flux thresholds– Empirical data and probabilistic models for specific failure
modes (e.g., spurious operation, high-energy arc faults)
• Fire suppression– Historical data– Fire brigade drills
33
Fire PRA Methodology
Plant Response Analysis
• Objectives– Identify potentially significant
fire-induced accident scenarios– Estimate fire-induced core
damage frequency (CDF)• General approach: propagate
fire-induced losses through event tree/fault tree model– Start with internal events model– Modify to include effects on
equipment availability and operator actions
34
Fire PRA Methodology
Fire PRA History and ResultsLessons and applications over the years
35
Fire PRA in the U.S.
36
1975 1980 19901985 1995 2000 20102005 2015
Bro
wns
Fer
ry fi
re(W
ASH
-140
0 an
alys
is)
Fire PRA R&D
IPEEEsIndustry
Full-Scope PRAs
NUREG-1150/RMIEP
NFPA 805 LARs
NFPA 805, 10 CFR 50.48(c),RG 1.205, NEI 04-02,
EPRI 1011989/NUREG/CR-6850, …
Fire PRA History and Results
Some Decisions Supported by Fire PRA
• Indian Point continued operation• Risk-informed plant licensing
basis changes• Reactor oversight
– Inspection prioritization– Finding significance
• Plant license renewals (cost-beneficial severe accident mitigation alternative analyses)
• Fire protection program transitions (per NFPA 805)
37
Fire PRA History and Results
Fire PRAs – Early Summary Results
38
Fire PRA History and Results
Fire PRAs – More Recent Results
39
Fire PRA History and Results
Fire PRAs – Risk Contributors
40
Fire PRA History and Results
From Canavan, K., R. et al., “Roadmap for Attaining Realism in Fire PRAs,” Nuclear Energy Institute, 2010.
Then…Now…
Current ChallengesTransitioning to risk-informed, performance-based fire protection
41
Towards Risk-Informed Fire Protection• Post-Browns Ferry deterministic
protection of redundant safe shutdown equipment (10 CFR Part 50, App R)– 3-hour fire barrier, OR– 20 feet separation with detectors and
auto suppression, OR– 1-hour fire barrier with detectors and auto
suppression• Risk-informed, performance-based fire
protection (10 CFR 50.48, NFPA 805)– Voluntary alternative to Appendix R– Deterministic and performance-based
elements– Changes can be made without prior
approval of AHJ– Ensure risk is “acceptable” to AHJ
• As of 3/2015, license amendment requests from 27 of 61 sites
42
Current Challenges
From Cline, D.D., et al., “Investigation of Tw enty-Foot Separation Distance as a Fire Protection Method as Specif ied in 10 CFR 50, Appendix R,” NUREG/CR-3192, 1983.
A “Heated Debate”
• Is fire PRA mature? Are the results overly conservative?
• Industry concerns– Expense of detailed analyses– Realism of specific sub-models– Flexibility in making plant
changes– Implications for other risk-
informed applications• NRC concerns
– Technical basis for alternative models
– Implications for other risk-informed applications
43
Current Challenges
Adapted from U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “An Approach for Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis,” Regulatory Guide 1.174, Revision 2, 2011.
Common View: The Need for Realism
• Excessive conservatism or optimism can– Inappropriately focus decision maker attention– Lead to wasteful or even harmful “solutions”– Miss opportunities for other improvements– Damage stakeholder confidence
44
?
Current Challenges
Fire R&D: The “Laundry List” (c. 1998)
45
Current Challenges
Fire R&D at NRC• Fire is one of many contributors to risk; resources for R&D
and for performing analyses are limited.• NRC R&D activities
– primarily aimed at supporting practical regulatory office needs (review/acceptance of new technologies and methods, understanding of new phenomena)
– support current fire PRA framework (“evolution”)• Examples
– Guidance development/updating (cooperative with industry)– Experiments to provide basic data for complex phenomena, expert
panels to interpret data– International cooperation (sharing lessons from operational
experience, experiments)
46
Current Challenges
Fire R&D at NRC (cont.)• Example Topics/Projects
– Cable Response to Live Fire (CAROLFIRE)– Cable Heat Release Ignition, and Spread in Tray Installations
During FIRE (CHRISTIFIRE) – Direct Current Electrical Shorting in Response to Exposure Fire
(DESIREE-FIRE)– Refining and Characterizing Heat Release Rates from Electrical
Enclosures During Fire (RACHELLE-FIRE)– Fire Events Database– High Energy Arc Fault (HEAF)
• Partners– Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)– National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)– Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories– International Partners (OECD/NEA)– Universities
47
Current Challenges
Closing ThoughtsKey messages, Fukushima implications, references
48
PRA Implications of Fukushima• PRA remains a useful decision support tool
– PRAs identify and quantify possibilities; they do not “predict”
– PRAs look beyond the design basis and past operational experience; the ideal is to search for failures using all relevant information
– PRAs recognize and treat uncertainties– Global statistical estimates and “worst case”
analyses have their own modeling assumptions– Changing analytical approaches will not overcome
fundamental weaknesses in available information
49
Closing Thoughts
• Fukushima: indicates the importance of all severe spatial hazards (not just earthquakes and flooding) highlights several areas where the PRA state-of-practice and the PRA state-of-the-art need
improvement• A broader lesson: lessons from past events (e.g., Blayais, 1999) need to be better
disseminated and institutionalized
TEPCO photos from “The Yoshida Testimony,” Asahi Shinbun, 2014.
Key Messages
• NRC uses PRA to support regulatory decision making (day-to-day and major decisions).
• Fire is a potentially important contributor to nuclear power plant risk.
• The general approach for performing fire PRA is well understood and well accepted.
• Details matter. Concerns with the realism of specific models affect confidence in overall results and the transition to risk-informed fire protection, and are spurring R&D.
• PRA is a tool, not an end. Fire PRA R&D is focused on improvements that will support practical risk management.
50
Closing Thoughts
For Further Reading*• Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research,
“EPRI/NRC-RES Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities,” EPRI 1011989 and NUREG/CR-6850, 2005.• Haskin, F.E., et al., “Perspectives on Reactor Safety,” NUREG/CR-6042, Rev. 2, 2002.• Kaplan, S. and B.J. Garrick, “On the quantitative definition of risk,” Risk Analysis, 1, 11-37(1981).• Nowlen S.P., M. Kazarians, and F. Wyant, “Risk Methods Insights Gained from Fire Incidents,” NUREG/CR-6738, 2001.• Siu, N., N. Melly, S.P. Nowlen, and M. Kazarians, “Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants,” to be published in the
next Society for Fire Protection Engineers’ Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering.• Siu, N., K. Coyne, and N. Melly, “Fire PRA Maturity and Realism: A Technical Evaluation,” white paper in preparation.• Siu, N., et al., “Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Regulatory Decision Making: Some Frequently Asked Questions,”
report in preparation.• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods in Nuclear Activities: Final Policy
Statement,” Federal Register, Vol. 60, p. 42622 (60 FR 42622), August 16, 1995.• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “An Approach for Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed
Decisions on Plant Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis,” Regulatory Guide 1.174, Revision 2, 2011.• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “A Proposed Risk Management Regulatory Framework,” NUREG-2150, 2012.• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “The Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Fire of 1975 Knowledge Management Digest,”
NUREG/KM-0002, 2013.• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Fire Protection and Fire Research Knowledge Management Digest, 2013”
NUREG/KM-0003, 2014.• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “No Undue Risk: Regulating the Safety of Operating Nuclear Power Plants,”
NUREG/BR-0518, 2014.
51
Closing Thoughts
*Most of these references can be found at www.nrc.gov
Additional Slides
52
Some Acronyms• AB – Auxiliary Building• AC – Alternating Current• AEC – U.S. Atomic Energy Commission• ACRS – Advisory Committee of Reactor Safeguards• AHJ – Authority Having Jurisdiction• ANS – American Nuclear Society• ASME – American Society of Mechanical Engineers• ASP – Accident Sequence Precursor• BWR – Boiling Water Reactor• CCDP – Conditional Core Damage Probability• CDF – Core Damage Frequency• CFD – Computational Fluid Dynamics• CFR – Code of Federal Regulations• CRD – Control Rod Drive• CSR – Cable Spreading Room• DC – Direct Current• DOE – U.S. Department of Energy• ECCS – Emergency Core Cooling System• EPRI – Electric Pow er Research Institute• GI – Generic Issue• GW - Gigaw att• HEAF – High Energy Arc Fault• HPCI – High Pressure Coolant Injection• HRA – Human Reliability Analysis• IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency• IPE – Individual Plant Examination• IPEEE – Individual Plant Examination of External Events• LER – Licensee Event Report• LERF – Large Early Release Frequency• LOOP – Loss of Offsite Pow er• LWGR – Light Water Graphite Reactor• MCR – Main Control Room• MW – Megaw att• NEA – Nuclear Energy Agency
• NEI – Nuclear Energy Institute• NFPA – National Fire Protection Association• NIST – National Institute of Standards and Technology• NMSS – NRC Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards• NPP – Nuclear Pow er Plant• NRC – U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission• NRO – NRC Office of New Reactors• NRR – NRC Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation• NSIR – NRC Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response• NUREG – NRC report designator• OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development• PHWR – Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor• PRA – Probabilistic Risk Assessment• PSA – Probabilistic Safety Assessment• PWR – Pressurized Water Reactor• RBMK – Reaktor Bolshoy Moshchnosti Kanalnyy• RCIC – Reactor Core Isolation Cooling• RES – NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research• RG – Regulatory Guide• RIDM – Risk-Informed Decision Making• RMIEP – Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program• ROP – Reactor Oversight Program• SAMA – Severe Accident Mitigation Alternative• SAMDA – Severe Accident Mitigation Design Alternative• SDP – Signif icance Determination Process• SBO – Station Blackout• SECY – NRC Office of Secretary (also designator for staff papers)• SPAR – Standardized Plant Analysis Risk• SRP – Standard Review Plan• SRV – Safety Relief Valve• SSC – Systems, Structures, and Components• TMI – Three Mile Island• VVER – Vodo-Vodyanoi Energetichesky Reaktor• WASH – AEC report designator
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U.S. Nuclear Power Plants
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• 99 plants (61 sites)• ~99,000 MWe, ~789,000 MW-hr (2013) = 19% U.S. total• Worldwide: 435 plants, 372 GWe capacity
More Electricty Fun Facts
• Generation– Modern NPP ~1000 MW (1 unit)– Saint-Gobain (coal) 5.6 MW– Brayton (coal) ~1400 MW– Burriville (natural gas) ~900 MW– Block Island (wind) ~30 MW– Cape Wind (wind) ~470 MW– Hoover Dam (hydro) ~2000 MW– Robert-Bourassa (hydro) ~5600 MW
• Consumption– 1000 MW: 1M homes– 17000 MW: U.S. data centers (2013)
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USNRC (10/15/2015)
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Regulatory Documents
• Regulations - http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/cfr/
• Regulatory Guide (RG) - http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/reg-guides/
• Standard Review Plan (SRP) -http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr0800/
• NUREG Series Reports - http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/
• Policy Statements - http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/policy/
• Inspection Manual - http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/insp-manual/
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Regulatory Documents - Examples
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Regulation
• 10 CFR 50, Appendix A, Criterion 2• Structures, systems, and components important to safety shall be
designed to withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, tsunami, and seicheswithout loss of capability to perform their safety functions.
RG
• RG 1.76, “Design-Basis Tornado and Tornado Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants”• NUREG/CR-4461, “Tornado Climatology of the Contiguous United States,”
• RG1.221, “Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants”• NUREG/CR-7004 Technical Basis for Regulatory Guidance on Design-Basis
Hurricane-Borne Missile Speeds for Nuclear Power Plants • NUREG/CR-7005 Technical Basis for Regulatory Guidance on Design-Basis
Hurricane Wind Speeds for Nuclear Power Plants
SRP
• Standard Review Plan Chapter 3.3.1, “Wind Loading”• Standard Review Plan Chapter 3.5.1.4, “Missiles Generated By
Tornadoes And Extreme Winds”
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General Design Criterion 35
Emergency core cooling. A system to provide abundant emergency core cooling shall be provided. The system safety function shall be to transfer heat from the reactor core following any loss of reactor coolant at a rate such that (1) fuel and clad damage that could interfere with continued effective core cooling is prevented and (2) clad metal-water reaction is limited to negligible amounts.
Suitable redundancy in components and features, and suitable interconnections, leak detection, isolation, and containment capabilities shall be provided to assure that for onsite electric power system operation (assuming offsite power is not available) and for offsite electric power system operation (assuming onsite power is not available) the system safety function can be accomplished, assuming a single failure.
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Browns Ferry (March 22, 1975)
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Some “Near Misses”
61
Event Summary Description*Browns Ferry(BWR, 1975)
Multi-unit cable fire; multiple systems lost, spurious component and system operations; makeup from CRD pump
Greifswald(VVER, 1975)
Electrical cable fire; station blackout (SBO), loss of all normal core cooling for 5 hours, loss of coolant through valve; recovered through low pressure pumps and cross-tie with Unit 2
Beloyarsk (LWGR, 1978)
Turbine lube oil fire , collapsed turbine building roof, propagated into control building, main control room (MCR) damage, secondary fires; extinguished in 22 hours; damage to multiple safety systems and instrumentation.
Armenia(VVER, 1982)
Electrical cable fire (multiple locations), smoke spread to Unit 1 MCR, secondary explosions and fire; SBO (hose streams), loss of instrumentation and reactor control; temporary cable from emergency diesel generator to high pressure pump
Chernobyl (RBMK, 1991)
Turbine failure and fire, turbine building roof collapsed; loss of generators, loss of feedwater (direct and indirect causes); makeup from seal water supply
Narora(PHWR, 1993)
Turbine failure, explosion and fire, smoke forced abandonment of shared MCR; SBO, loss of instrumentation; shutdown cooling pump energized 17 hours later
*See NUREG/CR-6738 (2001), IAEA-TECDOC-1421 (2004)
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Risk Assessment vs. Risk Management
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From National Research Council, “Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society,” National Academy Press, 1996.
Uncertainties in PRA Results
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Core Damage Frequency – CDF (/ry)
Potential PRA Technology Challenges Revealed by Fukushima*• Extending PRA scope
– Multiple sources– Additional systems– Additional organizations– Post-accident risk
• Treating feedback loops• Reconsidering intentional
conservatism• Treating long-duration scenarios
– Severe accident management– Offsite resources– Aftershocks– Success criteria
• Improving human reliability analysis– Errors of commission– Severe accident management– Psychological effects– Recovery feasibility and time delays– Uncertainty in actual status– Cumulative effects over long-duration
scenarios– Crew-to-crew variability
• Uncertainty in phenomenological codes
• Increasing emphasis on “searching”
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*From Siu, N., et al., “PSA Technology Challenges Revealed by the Great East Japan Earthquake,” PSAM Topical Conference in Light of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident, Tokyo, Japan, April 15-17, 2013. (ADAMS ML 13099A347 and ML13038A203)
NRC Information
• Website: www.nrc.gov• Agencywide Document Access and Management
System (ADAMS): http://adams.nrc.gov/wba/• Jobs (USAJOBS): http://www.nrc.gov/about-
nrc/employment/apply.html• Status of Risk-Informed Activities: SECY-15-0135
(“Annual Update of the Risk-Informed Activities Public Web Site,” ADAMS ML15267A387, October 27, 2015)
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