Fire, Fuels, and Aviation Leadership Oct 2006

Fire, Fuels, and Aviation LeadershipOct 2006

Contemporary Suppression Strategies

Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can we reduce costs significantly by changing suppression strategies?

Magnitude of the Fire Season Nationally

Photo By: Tom Iraci

1) Acres burned have risen by more than 8% per year; after adjusting for inflation;

2) NF suppression expenditures have risen by an annual rate of approximately 10%, slightly more than the rate of growth in acres burned;

3) Approximately 80 percent of the variation in expenditures can be explained by the variation in acres burned;

4) FS suppression expenditures per acre, after adjusting for inflation, have risen by approximately 1.5% annually, but the rate of increase is not statistically significant….kg/bb

National Forest Suppression Expenditures Per Acre By Fiscal Year Adjusted to 2005$

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

National Forest Protection Acres Burned By Fiscal Year

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

National Forest Total Suppression Expenditures BY Fiscal Year Adjusted to 2005$

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

Mill

ion

s

1) Acres burned have risen by more than 8% per year; after adjusting for inflation;

2) NF suppression expenditures have risen by an annual rate of approximately 10%, slightly more than the rate of growth in acres burned;

3) Approximately 80 percent of the variation in expenditures can be explained by the variation in acres burned;

4) FS suppression expenditures per acre, after adjusting for inflation, have risen by approximately 1.5% annually, but the rate of increase is not statistically significant….kg/bb

National Forest Suppression Expenditures Per Acre By Fiscal Year Adjusted to 2005$

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

National Forest Protection Acres Burned By Fiscal Year

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

National Forest Total Suppression Expenditures BY Fiscal Year Adjusted to 2005$

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

Mill

ion

s

FS Discretionary & FAM Budget Trend

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Fiscal Year

Mill

ion

$'s

Total WF Appropriation

WFSU Appropriation

Discretionary Budget

Note: FY 09/10/11 are estimates; assumptions include 0.15% reduction/year in discretionary funding; flat WFPR appropriation; WFSU at 10 Year Moving average. Assumes $800 million WFSU for FY 07/08/09.

LF Costs Reserve Funds

Changing the burden of increased Changing the burden of increased LLarge arge FFire costs on Agency’s ire costs on Agency’s

BudgetBudget

Constrained budget

Expected annual decline, 2.5%

LF 10 year ave. >cost burden

Time

Current Future

DOI, 8101

EPA, 7,813

Other, 5,762

FS, 4,260

DOI, 8101

EPA, 7,813

Other, 5,762

LF, 1,000

FS, 4,260

IA Responsibility

Interior Appropriations(Millions of Dollars)

Known as Partitioning

Lets Talk More About Cost

Significant Reduction In Expenditures Will Only Come With Major Shifts In Suppression Strategies And

Taking Greater Risks, Which Will Require Broader Ownership Of Suppression Strategies Being

Implemented.

Photo By: Tom Iraci

My Opinion

A Comment Regional Budget: $500 million 2006 Pre-Suppression & Suppression: $275 million Spent Within ~75 Days

Seems Reasonable We Should Have Broader Ownership For How We Do This Work And Spend

This Money.

Photo By: Tom Iraci

OwnershipTaking More Risk Means Local AAs Will Need Major Support, Even When Strategies Are Going Well.

Region And WO Social/Political Administration

There Will Be Increased Risk To: Local Revenue Sources Life And Property Habitat Due To Uncharacteristic (Intense) Fire Air Quality (Visibility And Health Affects) Political Stability for the Agency, And Perhaps Even To Higher Costs

Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can We Shift Strategies?

Bear Gulch II— Start 7/25/06 Point Protection Strategy Fire active for 45+ days

1,055 ac $1.8Million $1,700/ac

Westside Fire Typically Costs $5,000-$6,000/ac.

Photo By: Tom Iraci

Homes begin

80+%

20-40%

40-60%

60-80%

<5%

10-20%

Staircase Ranger Station

We Can Use Science To Help Validate Strategies and to Communicate to the Public


Tatoosh Fire Start Date: 8/22/06 Monitor Strategy Fire Active for 22+ Days We had no Resources

54,000+ Ac $33,000 $1/ Ac

Freezeout (2004) 838 Ac $2.5 Million $3000/Ac

Photo By: Tom Iraci


Blister Fire Start 8/11/06 Full Control Strategy Contained In 13 Days

735 Ac $4.8 Million $6,600/Ac

Is Other Than Full Control Possible On The West Side?

Photo By: Tom Iraci


Tinpan Started July 8, 2006 WFU Fire Active 75+ Days

9,247 Ac $8.2 Million $886/Ac

7/9/06

7/24/06

Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can We Shift Strategies? Tripod Fire

Combination Of Strategies Started 7/24/06 Active 60+ Days

175,000 Ac $83 Million $475/Ac (Fed) $1,000/Ac (State)

Managing Fire In 100,000+ Ac Of Dead Trees is a Challenge.

Will: More Patience, with A Contemporary Strategy And, Political SupportHelp Reduce Cost?

One Of Many Similar 1,000 Ac. Columns

Photo By: Tom Iraci

Management Efficiency Description #1

Better use, and allocation/reallocation, of FF Better use, and allocation/reallocation, of FF resources.resources.

Currently, the dispatch and coordination system works Currently, the dispatch and coordination system works on a 1on a 1stst come 1 come 1stst serve bases at the lower PL’s. Many serve bases at the lower PL’s. Many times, more resources are ordered than are absolutely times, more resources are ordered than are absolutely needed to manage a fire. This is a result of risk needed to manage a fire. This is a result of risk adverse management -- there is no incentive to take adverse management -- there is no incentive to take risks.risks.

Fires that follow, which may actually have a higher Fires that follow, which may actually have a higher

priority, find themselves wanting for resources and priority, find themselves wanting for resources and perhaps resulting in high value losses and in the long perhaps resulting in high value losses and in the long run costing the American public more in suppression run costing the American public more in suppression cost and resources losses.cost and resources losses.


Be more bold, and better utilize the full spectrum Be more bold, and better utilize the full spectrum of AMRs! of AMRs! Risk aversion is leading us away from lower cost Risk aversion is leading us away from lower cost

suppression alternatives.suppression alternatives. We need to better utilize patience and ‘contemporary’ We need to better utilize patience and ‘contemporary’

thinking when developing the AMR. thinking when developing the AMR. Creativity and finesse are still missing when searching Creativity and finesse are still missing when searching

for the AMR.for the AMR. AMR is still misunderstood.AMR is still misunderstood. Given the new planning rule, lack of national direction Given the new planning rule, lack of national direction

for FMP’s may limit AMR possibilities .for FMP’s may limit AMR possibilities .

Use Distribution of Type 1 Crews and Helicopters

0

50

100

150

200

250

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Mac Priorty

No.

of T

ype

1 R

esou

rces

Ass

igne

dA

cros

s E

ntire

Sea

son

Type 1 Crews

Type 1 Helicopters


StandardizationStandardization Equipment -- such as enginesEquipment -- such as engines National Contract or agreement standards for FF National Contract or agreement standards for FF

resourcesresources IT and Camp SupportIT and Camp Support


Validate that the number and mix of our EU and Validate that the number and mix of our EU and CWN resources are appropriate, and identify the CWN resources are appropriate, and identify the proper procurement method is used.proper procurement method is used. A crew study done by the PNW Research station A crew study done by the PNW Research station

suggests that it is cheaper to use agency crews over suggests that it is cheaper to use agency crews over contract crews if the utilization is high. contract crews if the utilization is high.

Study utilization of both aerial and ground National FF Study utilization of both aerial and ground National FF resources to determine the appropriate mix of EU vs. resources to determine the appropriate mix of EU vs. CWN and agency crews vs. contract crews.CWN and agency crews vs. contract crews.

Rhetorical QuestionsDo We Want To:

Have Broader Input And Ownership Of Suppression Strategies?

Take Greater Risk To Try and Reduce Costs? “Beef-up” Our Initial Attack? Change How We Engage Our Social/Political

Partners? Develop Training For Management To Design

And Implement Contemporary Suppression Strategies?

Change the way we tell the story about the good work we do to reduce cost?

Photo By: Tom Iraci

Discussion Topics What is a ‘contemporary’ strategy? What are the risks associated with

‘contemporary’ suppression strategies? How do you plan for ‘contemporary’ suppression

strategies? Including: Line Officers Public Political

We are looking for a few ‘nuggets’ to help build and validate accountability, how we can measure our

success, and better tell our successes.

Documents

Fire, Fuels, and Aviation Leadership Oct 2006