Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 18-29 year-olds September 2008

Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 18-29 year-olds

September 2008

2

METHODOLOGY

• The survey was conducted by phone using professional interviewers September 8 – 17, 2008. It reached a base sample of 500 18-29 year olds nationwide, including 329 reached on landline phones and 171 reached on cell phones. There were also additional oversamples of 75 Latinos and 75 African Americans, for a total sample of 650 18-29 year olds.

• The data were weighted slightly by gender, race, age, party identification, and phone usage in order to ensure that they accurately reflect the population.

• The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

• Questions marked with an * were asked of half of the sample.

• Also included are data from our February 2008 survey.

3

KEY FINDINGS• Overall, the attitudes of young Americans have remained pretty

stable in the last few months, but intensity has increased. They are more engaged in the election, more focused on the economy, and more solidly supportive of Obama.

• Democrats maintain a vote advantage at both the presidential and Congressional levels, but enthusiasm among young Republicans has caught up to that of young Democrats since February.

• Young people want change, and Obama has an advantage there. Experience is still important but doesn’t generate the same energy as change.

• The economy is their top priority, and young people don’t feel like they are hearing enough about it from the candidates.

• Young people are really engaged in this election. They are talking about it with friends and family and opting in over the internet, seeking out information on their own.

Political EnvironmentYoung Adults are still change oriented and since

February, they have become even more focused on pocketbook concerns like the economy and gas

prices.

5

More than two-thirds of 18-29 year-olds believe the country is on the wrong track. The energy for change has remained

strong since February.

69%

26%25%

68%

11%

48%

7%

51%

15% 7%

RightDirection

Wrong Track Don't know RightDirection

Wrong Track Don't know

Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you think things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Among all adults, 14% say Right Direction and 81% say Wrong Track.CBS/NYT Poll. Sept. 12-16, 2008. N=1,133 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

-43-43

February September

6

Across the board, young people don’t like the way things are going in the country. Women, Democrats, and African

Americans are particularly disappointed in the country’s direction, but even younger Republicans remain net-negative.

45%

28%

14%

28%

26%

13%

22%

29%

26%

-49%

-67%

-67%

-81%

-67%

-82%

-67%

-71%

-69% 15%

18%

13%

16%

16%

10%

30%-31%

19%

7%

-64%

-49%

-48%

-38%

-65%

-50%

-53%

-51%Total

Men

Women

White

Latino

African American

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Wrong Track Right Direction

7

Since February, young adults have become even more focused on the economy. Their second concern is gas

prices, also up since February and a part of their pocketbook woes.

29%

11%

10%

10%

7%

7%

6%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

17%

6%

12%

10%

11%

5%

5%

8%

6%

3%

7%

3%

2%

2%

J obs and the economy

Gas prices

I raq

Education and the cost of college

Health care and prescription drugs

Terrorism and Homeland Security

Federal budget deficit

I mmigration

Government corruption and reform

Taxes

Environment and global warming

Moral values

Social Security and retirement

Gay rights

September

February

I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people have. Please tell me which one of these you would most like the next President to do something about?

Among all adults, 48% cite jobs and the economy as their top concern,

followed terrorism and national security (14%), and gas prices and

health care (10% each).

In Sept. 2006, the top concerns among young people were education and the cost

of college (17%), jobs and the economy (13%), and the war

in Iraq (11%).

CBS/NYT Poll. Sept. 12-16, 2008. N=1,133 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

8

When asked what the FIRST priority of the next President should be, younger Americans are even more focused on the economy. The war

in Iraq and gas prices also come to the fore as the most urgent issues for the next president.

42%

24%

21%

9%

5%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

J obs and the economy

I raq/ Bring troops home

Gas prices/ energy/ oil companies

Health care and prescription drugs

Taxes

Education and the cost of college

I mmigration

Foreign relations/ policy

Government corruption and reform

Moral values

Terrorism and Homeland Security

Environment and global warming

Federal budget deficit

Gay rights

Regardless of who you plan to support for president, once that person is elected and sworn into office, what is the FIRST thing you want them to do something about?

9

Young Democrats are very focused on the economy, while independents and Republicans have more diffuse issue

agendas, though the economy is the top issue across party lines. Cost of college is also important for independents.

26%

11%

6%

19%

5%

5%

17%

6%

3%

6%

15%

16%

1%

7%

38%

12%

11%

11%

J obs and theeconomy

Iraq

Health care andprescription drugs

Education and thecost of college

Gas prices

Terrorism andHomeland Security

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

10

Young people are firmly focused on the economy and believe they have not heard enough about it. College affordability, health care, and gas prices are also issues that young people are not hearing

enough about.

65%

64%

56%

55%

50%

49%

35%

32%

30%

20%

26%

31%

28%

25%

29%

34%

40%

34%

11%

8%

12%

15%

19%

18%

24%

24%

30%

College Affordability

Creating Jobs

Health Care

Gas Prices and Energy

Immigration

Global warming and the environment

Moral and Values-Based I ssues

Homeland Security and Terrorism

War in I raq

Not enough About right Too much

Here are some issues candidates for president might talk about this fall. Please tell me if thus far you think candidates have spent too much time, not enough time, or about the right amount of

time discussing each issue.*

11

The issues what will determine young Americans’ votes in November are also the ones that they are not hearing enough about. Candidates need to speak to their financial concerns if they want to connect and help drive these voters to the

polls.

6.4

6.9

7.4

7.9

8.4

Not Enough Too Much

Imp

ort

an

t Creating Jobs Gas Prices and Energy

Health Care

War in Iraq

College Affordability

Homeland Security and Terrorism

Immigration

Moral and Values Based Issues

Global Warming and the Environment

Attitudes Toward Voting and the 2008 Election

Attention and enthusiasm toward this election has increased since February. Young people are talking about this election,

and they recognize its historic potential.

13

Half of 18-29 year-olds identify themselves as Democrats, and about a third self-identify as Republicans. This

Democratic advantage has grown from only +10 points in November of 2006.

29%

50%

33%

14%

12%

Democrat Republican Independent

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else?

+21In November of 2006, 40% of young

adults identified themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and

23% as independents.

14

Interest in the election has intensified since the primary season, when young people turned out in record

numbers.

13%

80%

20%

87%

41%

57%

5% 3%

Closely Not Closely Closely Not Closely

Thinking specifically about this year’s election, how closely would you say you have followed the election– extremely closely, very closely, somewhat closely, a little closely, or not at all closely?

February September

15

What is the likelihood that you will vote in the NOVEMBER election for President, Congress, and other offices – are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote?

86%

13%

69%

6%1%

Likely Not likely Don't know

Nearly nine in ten young people say they are likely to vote in November, with more than two-thirds saying they are

extremely likely.

In September 2006, only 69% said they were likely to vote, and fewer

than half (44%) said they were extremely likely.

16

Republicans have caught up to Democrats in terms of their engagement in this election. In February, young Republicans lagged behind Democrats in vote likelihood, but now three-

quarters of both say they are extremely likely to vote.

75%

86%

91%84%87%

87%

91%

86%

91%

89%

79%-22%

-13%

-16%

-13%

-8%

-13%

-14%

-8%

-11%

-21%

-8%

69%

73%

67%

71%

73%

73%

70%

52%

61%

72%

72%

-11%

-6%

-9%

-3%

-4%

-6%

-5%

-3%

-4%

-4%

-6%

Total

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Presidential Ballot: Obama

McCain

Congressional Ballot: Democrat

Republican

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Unlikely Likely

February 2008

17

About a third would be first time voters, but two-thirds of adults under 30 say that they have voted

before.

67%

28%

4%

First Time Voter Have Voted Before Not Voting

Will this election be your first time voting?

Most Likely to Be First Time Voters•Age 17-22 (48%)•Students (44%)•African Americans (40%)

•African American women (44%) •Unmarried men (40%)•Not working full-time (38%)•Non-college graduates (36%) •Independents (34%)

•Independent men (40%)

18

Young voters feel more empowered as a group than they do as individuals. They also feel that the potential of electing the first African

American president is more significant than a female vice president. Either way, young voters do see this as an historic election.

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.

89%

71%

83%

70%

-26%

-9%

-15%

-24%

76%

49%

71%

41%

-6%

-8%

-15%

-12%

As a group, young people have thepower to change things in this

country.*

I have the power to change things inthis country.*

This election is an opportunity to makehistory by electing the first African

American president.*

This election is an opportunity to makehistory by electing the first woman

vice president.*

Disagree Agree

19

Women are more likely than men to see the historical significance of Obama’s run, but women do not place greater importance on Palin’s nomination than men. African Americans have the highest sense of empowerment in this election and the greatest appreciation of its

historical significance.

%Strongly agree Men WomenAge

17-22Age

23-29White Latino

African American

As a group, young people have the power to change things in this

country.*

72 79 74 77 78 68 81

I have the power to change things in this

country.*51 47 51 47 51 43 55

This election is an opportunity to make

history by electing the first African American

president.*

65 76 70 71 69 67 86

This election is an opportunity to make

history by electing the first woman vice

president. *

39 42 41 41 44 42 35

20

Among those who are most likely to agree strongly about the significance of Palin’s selection as the Republican VP

candidate, Republicans, especially Republican women.

%Strongly AgreeHistoric because

of woman VP

Historic because of African American President

Women 42% 76%

Independents 54% 68%

Republicans 61% 45%

Republican women 68% 48%

White women 48% 77%

Rural 55% 86%

Married women 54% 74%

21

Young people are talking about this election. More than nine in ten have spoken to friends or family about it. More than half have watched a candidate video on the internet, and more than a third have visited a candidate website or emailed a friend. Young people are opting into

this election by word of mouth and over the internet.

11%

16%

17%

17%

8%

92%

56%

40%

36%

Spoken with friends about the election

Watched an online video of acandidate

Visited a campaign website

Forwarded or sent an email to a friendabout a candidate

Signed a petition

Signed up on a candidate's email list

Attended a political event or rally

Volunteered with a political campaignor group

Sent or received a text message from acandidate

During election campaigns, people sometimes look for information or get involved in different ways. In which of the following ways have you come into contact with political candidates or

groups in THIS election? Have you…

Democrats (29%) are more likely than Republicans (17%) to have done 3 or more of these political

activities.

22

In terms of news sources, again, friends and family are the most common source of information about the election and other issues. Young people also watch cable, local, and national television news.

And contrary to conventional wisdom, less than half say they get their news from programs like “The Daily Show”.

25%

48%

63%

68%

9%

89%

81%

79%

79%

Talk to friends and family

Watch cable television news

Watch local television news

Watch national television news

Read the newspaper

Read the news online

Watch comedy programs like "The DailyShow"

Use campaign websites or get emailupdates from campaigns

Get updates from campaigns on yourcell phone

Now I’m going to read you some ways that people follow the news and elections. For each, please tell me if you follow the news or the election that way. Do you…?

The CandidatesSupport for both candidates has solidified since February,

and Obama retains his advantage on the qualities that young people are looking in a candidate for president.

24

Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures and organizations. For each one, please tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very

unfavorable impression of that person.

45%

37%

49%

44%

69%

-35%

-40%

-19%

-27%

-48% 20%

23%

19%

7%

47%

-25%

-29%

-13%

-8%

-14%Barack Obama

John McCain

Joe Biden

Sarah Palin

United StatesCongress

Unfavorable Favorable

Barack Obama is the most popular among the candidates for president and vice president. Both McCain and Palin have

net-negative ratings among young Americans.Never heard of/

No opinion

4%

8%

33%

23%

20%

25



41%

36%

58%

66%

-33%

-23%

-25%

-34% 20%

15%

23%

34%

-15%

-13%

-10%

-16%Barack Obama

J ohn McCain

J oe Biden

Sarah Palin


Among independents, Obama is also very popular. McCain fares better as well, with more than half saying they have a

favorable impression of him.Never heard of/

No opinion

9%

8%

41%

26%

INDEPENDENTS ONLY

26



44%

44%

69%

69%

46%

45%

-33%

-48%

-20%

-27%

-35%

-31% 9%

47%

38%

20%

10%

7%

-15%

-11%

-10%

-29%

-14%

-13%United States Congress September

February

Barack Obama September

February

John McCain September

February


Both Obama’s and McCain’s favorable numbers have remained steady since February, but negatives are up for

both, with McCain going from a net-positive to a net-negative rating. Never heard of/

No opinion

22%

11%

24%

20%

4%

8%

27

About half of young adults plan to vote Democratic on the Congressional ballot in the fall. This is closely in

line with their party identification.

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for…

22%27%

52%49%

27%

20%

Democrat Republican Other/ Don'tknow

Democrat Republican Other/ Don'tknow

+25In September 2006, 43%

of young people said they’d vote for the Democrat and 22%

planned to vote for the Republican.

February September

+22

28

The Democratic advantage extends across gender, race/ethnic groups, and education levels. Most young independents are undecided but they currently lean

Democratic as well.

49%

45%

53%

40%

61%

78%

46%

54%

51%

-78% 3%

42%

87%

24%

-24%

-27%

-25%

-20%

-2%

-33%

-18%

-27%

-26%

-29%

-33%

-9%

Total

MenWomen

WhiteLatino

African American

DemocratI ndependent

Republican

Non-college menNon-college women

College menCollege women

Republican DemocratNet Democrat

+22

+25+9+30+19

-75+6+85

+69+41+7

+28+16

29

Obama maintains a strong lead over McCain among young voters. While overall support levels have not changed,

supporters of both candidates are more intensely supportive now than in February.

29%

56%57%

27%

43%

16%13%15% 23%

48%

Barack Obama J ohn McCain Undecided Obama/ Biden McCain/ Palin Undecided

And, if the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) Republican John McCain and [Democrat Hillary Clinton*/Barack Obama*], for whom would you vote, or are you

undecided?

+27+30

February September

30

There is a gender gap among young adults. Half of young men support Obama, but nearly two-thirds of women. Independents lean toward Obama, but many remain

undecided.

62%

56%

50%61%

93%56%

33%91%

50%

59%51%

48%

7%

-25%

-29%

-25%

-27%-2%

-25%-4%

-31%

-26%-39%

-33%

-36%

-76%

48%

43%

52%

40%

45%

91%

42%

52%

54%

-64% 6%

48%

83%

20%

-19%

-23%

-20%

-18%

-3%

-29%

-18%

-25%

-22%

-26%

-30%

-2%

Total

MenWomen

WhiteLatino

African American

DemocratI ndependent

Republican

Non-college menNon-college women

College menCollege women

McCain ObamaNet Obama

+27

+33+12+37+19

-69+8

+87

+91+29+12

+36+17

Undecided

13%

14%9%

13%14%

16%36%3%

14%3%

13%

13%13%

31

One in ten voters who do not currently support McCain say there is a fair chance that they will support him in November.

For Obama, that number is nearly a quarter.

55%

18%

42%

16%12%11%

22%22%

FairChance

SmallChance

VerySlight

Chance

NoChance at

All

FairChance

SmallChance

VerySlight

Chance

NoChance at

All

Even though you are not supporting [Barack Obama/John McCain] now, what are the chances that you might support [Obama/McCain] in the election for president in November?

Likelihood to Switch to ObamaLikelihood to Switch to McCain

32

McCain still holds the advantage on experience and has narrowed the gap a bit on other traits, but Obama still holds

large advantages on change and sharing the values and understanding the problems of young Americans.

-34%

-50%

-20%

-17%

34%

52%

69%

67%-13%

-32%

55%

48%

34%

20%

-17%

-9%Understands the

problems of peopleyour age

Will bring change

Shares your values

Has the rightexperience

McCain Obama Feb.

+53

+53

+26

-19

Net ObamaSept.

+52

+47

+18

-16

33

Young voters want change. That is the top trait they are looking for in a candidate and currently Obama has the advantage on that level. But each of these qualities

are important to their vote.

68%

70%

74%

74%

55%

43%

42%

42%

Will bring change

Shares your values

Has the rightexperience

Understands theproblems of people

your age

Rated 8-9 Rated 10

8.5

8.3

8.2

8.2

Mean

34

Obama owns the top candidate quality among young Americans. Change is important to young voters and Obama has the clear

advantage. McCain’s greatest strength, experience, is not as central to their vote in an environment where change rules the day.

8

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

Obama McCain

Less I

mp

ort

an

t

Im

po

rtan

t

Will Bring Change

Understands the Problems of People Your Age

Shares Your Values

Has the Right Experience

Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 18-29 year-olds

September 2008

www.lakeresearch.com www.tarrance.com

Documents

Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 18-29 year-olds September 2008