Finding the Copper Mine of Tomorrow: In search of hypothetical reserves - Sykes - March 2014 - U

Mining & Exploration Group of Western Australia (MEGWA)

Kindly sponsored by

Presenter

John P. Sykes [1][2]*

Supervisors

Daniel Packey [1][2]

Allan Trench [1][2]

* [email protected]

[1] Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia

[2] Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin Graduate School of Business

FINDING THE COPPER MINE OF

THE FUTURE: In search of

hypothetical “reserves”

Image from the movie

“Avatar” courtesy of blu-

raystats.com


Okay, so it’s Wednesday night

and we’ve all started drinking…

…so lets get

philosophical!

Image: University of Melbourne (http://cdp.crida.net/2014/schedule)

21 May 2014

Finding the Copper Mine of Tomorrow: In search of hypothetical "reserves"

Slide 3 of 75


Starting with a “very smart man”*

“If I had one hour to

save the world, I would

spend 55 minutes

defining the problem

and only five minutes

finding the solution.”

- Albert Einstein†

21 May 2014


* According to Steve Beresford (First Quantum Minerals / Centre for Exploration Targeting † Also with thanks to Steve Beresford for introducing me to this quote

Image: Shock Mansion (http://www.shockmansion.com/2013/03/28/video-back-to-the-future-forever-michael-j-fox-forgets-what-movie-hes-in/)

Slide 4 of 75


(Not) Aims

Therefore the aim of this presentation is:

• Not to tell you where to find the copper mine of

tomorrow

• Not to tell you how to target “reserves” rather than

“resources”

• Not to give you any answers

• Not to ask the “right” question(s)

• Just to start discussing some of the things that

might be important – a “strategic conversation”

21 May 2014


Slide 5 of 75


Quiz 1: What is this person famous for?

• Surveyed the existing

knowledge

• Came up with an

alternate hypothesis

• Tested the hypothesis

• Thought they were right

• Were actually wrong

(repeatedly)

21 May 2014


Image: Karen Kavett (http://karenkavett.com/blog/943/making-of-guess-who-doctor-who-edition.php)

Slide 6 of 75


Contents

• Disaggregating the current copper price “boom”

• Understanding the long-term via resource depletion

• Minerals exploration and “reserve” depletion

• Economic potential in early-stage “resources”

• Incorporating sustainable development principles

• Looking into an uncertain future…

• “Multiple hypothetical reserves”

• Conclusions

21 May 2014


Slide 7 of 75


Disaggregating the current copper price

“boom”

21 May 2014


Source: Sykes & Trench, 2014; Data from United States Department of Labour (2014); Historical nominal copper

prices 1914-2011 from the United States Geological Survey (2012) and 2012-13 from Metal Pages (2014)

Slide 8 of 75


Source: Sykes & Trench, 2014; Data from United States Department of Labour (2014); Historical nominal copper

prices 1914-2011 from the United States Geological Survey (2012) and 2012-13 from Metal Pages (2014)

Record nominal and long term high real

prices

21 May 2014


Images: Shutterstock

Slide 9 of 75


The supply lag and project development

problems

21 May 2014


Source: Sykes & Trench, 2014; Data from International Copper Study Group (2013, 2012).

Slide 10 of 75


The supply lag and project development

problems: The excuses list

• Underinvestment

• Falling ore grades

• Increasing depth

• Shrinking size

• Technological problems

• Underground mining

• Energy prices

• Water shortages

• Pollution

• Equipment shortages

• Raw material shortages

• Labour shortages

• Labour unrest

21 May 2014

• Operating costs

• Complicated regulations

• Environmental legislation

• Increased mine waste

• Capital cost overruns

• Project financing

• Land use conflict

• Infrastructure costs

• Political problems

• Resource nationalism

• Taxation

• Exchange rates

• Peace & security


Slide 11 of 75


Declining copper ore grades

21 May 2014


Source: Sykes & Trench, 2014; Data from Crowson (2012).

Slide 12 of 75


Record exploration and substantial

“resource” growth

21 May 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Copper Reserve (Mt) Depletion (yrs)


Source: Edelstein (2004-13).

Slide 13 of 75


Characteristics of the current copper

price “boom”

• Record nominal and long term high real prices

• The supply lag and project development problems

• Declining copper ore grades

• Record exploration and substantial “resource”

growth

• But what does this tell us about the long-term

future of the industry?

21 May 2014


Slide 14 of 75


Understanding the long-term via

resource depletion: wasting assets

21 May 2014


“Earth rise” from Apollo 11 Image: The Guardian/NASA

Old Geevor tin mine, Cornwall, UK,

operated late 18th century to 1990 Image: Shutterstock

Slide 15 of 75


The “fixed stock” paradigm of resource

depletion

21 May 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Copper Reserve (Mt) Depletion (yrs)


Source: Edelstein (2004-13).

Slide 16 of 75


The “limits” to the “fixed stock”

paradigm

21 May 2014


Source: Jacks (2013)

Slide 17 of 75


The “opportunity cost” paradigm of

resource depletion

21 May 2014



Slide 18 of 75


The future through the “opportunity

cost” paradigm: technology vs scarcity

21 May 2014



No need for exploration?

Slide 19 of 75


From “fixed stock” to “sustainable

development” paradigm

21 May 2014


Weighted average percentage head grades of copper

mines, 1970 onwards

Source: Crowson (2012)

Slide 20 of 75


Controlling idea: The copper industry

has a long term ‘development’ problem

“…the primary factors that govern whether a given

project is developed will be social, economic, and

environmental in nature.” - Mudd, Weng, & Jowitt, 2013

21 May 2014


Image from the

movie “Avatar”

courtesy of blu-

raystats.com No need for exploration?

Slide 21 of 75


Controlling idea: The copper industry

has a long term ‘development’ problem

• We understand the long-term future of the copper industry via resource

depletion: wasting assets

• The “fixed stock” paradigm of resource depletion suggests increasing

copper resource abundance

• The “limits” to the “fixed stock” paradigm: ignores innovation, technology

and discovery

• The “opportunity cost” paradigm of resource depletion suggests

increasing scarcity, but that technology & innovation can mitigate this

• The “fixed stock” paradigm has become the “sustainable development”

paradigm: the issue is not depletion of copper, but the depletion of the

environment and social-political well being

• Controlling idea: Both paradigms see the industry as development

constrained requiring technology & innovation in mining as a solution

21 May 2014


Slide 22 of 75


The exploration geologist’s view: Not all

“resources” prove to be “economic”

21 May 2014

Chart: Cairns, Hronsky, and Schodde, 2010


Slide 23 of 75



“resources” prove to be “economic”

21 May 2014

Chart: Cairns, Hronsky, and Schodde, 2010

“…investigate an alternative, less

capital-intensive design of the

Olympic Dam open-pit expansion…

align with the Company’s cost

control strategy in the current

economic environment…”

- BHP Billiton, 6th Dec 2012


Slide 24 of 75



“resources” are “sustainable”

21 May 2014

Photo: John P. Sykes


Slide 25 of 75




21 May 2014


“Anglo American has

given notice that it is

withdrawing from

the Pebble copper

project in Alaska.”

- Anglo American, 16th Sept 2013


Slide 26 of 75




21 May 2014


“Anglo American has

given notice that it is

withdrawing from

the Pebble copper

project in Alaska.”

- Anglo American, 16th Sept 2013


“Rio Tinto gifts

stake in Northern

Dynasty Minerals

to Alaskan

charities.”

- Rio Tinto, 7th April 2014

Slide 27 of 75


A (reserve) ‘discovery’ problem, not a

‘development’ problem

21 May 2014


Chart: Schodde, 2012

Slide 28 of 75


Rising discovery costs also indicates

increased “opportunity cost”

21 May 2014



Slide 29 of 75


The “search space” concept – better

deposits found where no one has looked

21 May 2014


All “search space”

Known “search space”

Corporate

“search space”

New mining

technology

New

exploration

technology

New

geographies

At depth

New

deposit

types

Changing

politics

Focus usually on

here (brownfields,

secondary

evaluation

greenfields, low

risk greenfields,

greyfields etc)

Focus should be on

here (first mover

greenfields)

Based on: Hronsky (2009)

Slide 30 of 75


The importance of opening new “search

space”: best resources discovered first

21 May 2014


Chart: Hronsky & Groves, 2008

Slide 31 of 75


The importance of opening new “search

space”: can find “better” resources

21 May 2014


Chart: Lagos, 2010

Slide 32 of 75


Best deposits do not deplete after

discovery, they grow!

21 May 2014



Slide 33 of 75


Best deposits benefit from multiple

innovations and changes

21 May 2014



Slide 34 of 75


Implications of the “search space”

paradigm

• Not all “resources” prove to be “economic” or can be developed

“sustainably”

• The copper industry has a (reserve) ‘discovery’ problem, not a

‘development’ problem – evidenced by rising discovery costs (an

“opportunity cost”)

• The “search space” concept suggests better deposits found where no

one has looked – these could be developed economically and

sustainably

• To do this better conceptual exploration required:

– Targeting “reserves” from the earliest stages of exploration

– Incorporating sustainable development principles into “reserves”

– Dealing with an uncertain future – complex interactions of technology, innovation,

discoveries and external changes

21 May 2014


Slide 35 of 75


From quantity to quality to “mineability”

21 May 2014

“Upper 10 percent of deposits in his database ordered in terms of contained metal. This equates to 3.2 Moz for gold, 77 Moz for silver, 2

Mt for copper, 1 Mt for lead and 1.7 Mt for zinc.” - Singer, 1995

“An informal term applied to ore deposits with an exceptionally large tonnage of economically recoverable metals”

- Laznicka, 1999 (in Schodde & Hronsky, 2006)

“Only the largest and highest grade deposits that would make a difference to the company’s bottom line.” - Tom Albanese, 2005 (in Schodde & Hronsky, 2006)

“…when economics are considered, there is no such thing as a world class mineral deposit. There are only big interesting mineral deposits

or world-class mines.” - Michael Doggett, 2004 (in Schodde & Hronsky, 2006)


Slide 36 of 75


Exploring for mineral reserves, not

resources

21 May 2014

PROVEN

RESERVE

PROBABLE

RESERVE

MEASURED

RESOURCE

INDICATED

RESOURCE

INFERRED

RESOURCE

Increasing level of geological knowledge and confidence

Consideration of

mining,

processing,

metallurgical,

economic,

marketing, legal,

environmental,

infrastructure,

social and

government

factors (the

“modifying

factors”)

Based on CRIRSCO, 2013

No conceptual

reserve


Slide 37 of 75


Drawing from the petroleum industry

21 May 2014

PROVEN

RESERVE

(1P)

PROBABLE

RESERVE

(2P)

CONTINGENT

RESOURCE

(1C)

CONTINGENT

RESOURCE

(2C)

CONTINGENT

RESOURCE

(3C)

Range of uncertainty

Incre

asin

g c

han

ce o

f

co

mm

erc

iality

Based on SPE et al. 2013

POSSIBLE

RESERVE

(3P)

PROSPECTIVE

RESOURCE

(LOW ESTIMATE)

CONTINGENT

RESOURCE

(MED. ESTIMATE)

CONTINGENT

RESOURCE

(HIGH ESTIMATE)


Slide 38 of 75



Inc

rea

sin

g c

ha

nc

e o

f

ec

on

om

ic v

iab

ilit

y

Based on (USBM & USGS 1980)

IDENTIFIED RESOURCES

Demonstrated

Inferred

Reserves

No

ec

on

om

ic

cri

teri

a a

ttach

ed

Reserves

ECONOMIC

Inferred Marginal

Reserves

Marginal Reserves

MARGINALLY

ECONOMIC

Inferred Marginal Reserves Demonstrated Sub-economic Resources

SUB-ECONOMIC

Inferred

Indicated Measured

Cumulative

Production

And from the past…

21 May 2014


Slide 39 of 75



Inc

rea

sin

g c

ha

nc

e o

f

ec

on

om

ic v

iab

ilit

y

IDENTIFIED RESOURCES

Demonstrated

Inferred

Reserve

Base

No

ec

on

om

ic

cri

teri

a a

ttach

ed

ECONOMIC

Reserve Base

MARGINALLY

ECONOMIC

(Excluded) Inferred Marginal Reserves (Excluded) Demonstrated Sub-economic Resources

SUB-ECONOMIC

Inferred

Indicated Measured

Cumulative

Production

“Reserve Base” ~ Theoretical Reserve?

21 May 2014


Based on (USBM & USGS 1980)

Slide 40 of 75


But we’ve always known this!

21 May 2014


“Now a miner, before he begins to mine the veins must

consider seven things, namely:- the situation, the conditions,

the water, the roads, the climate, the right of ownership

and the neighbours.”

- Agricola, 1556

Image: Wikipedia

Slide 41 of 75


What’s different nowadays?

21 May 2014


Sustainability:

“Development that meets the needs of the

present without compromising the

ability of future generations to meet

their own needs.”

- Brundtland Commission, 1987

“Social” “Equitable”

“Viable”

Sustainable

“Bearable”

Based on: Elkington (1999); Eggert (2013)

Slide 42 of 75


Incorporating sustainable development

principles: accessiblility?

3D ‘Conceptual” Reserve Cube

Source: Cook & Sheath (1997); Otto & Cordes (2000)

RESOURCES

RESERVES

GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY

EC

ON

OO

MIC

FE

AS

IBIL

ITY

RESOURCES

RESERVES


EC

ON

OO

MIC

FE

AS

IBIL

ITY

21 May 2014


2D ‘McKelvey” Reserve Box

Slide 43 of 75


Theoretical & conceptual reserves • The “search space” concept suggests better deposits found

where no one has looked – these could be developed

economically and sustainably

• To do this better conceptual exploration required:

– Targeting “reserves” from the earliest stages of exploration

• Change in focus from quantity to quality or “mineability”

• Exploring for mineral reserves, not resources

• The “possible reserve” & “reserve base” suggest the use of “theoretical

reserves for targeting

– Incorporating sustainable development principles into “reserves”

• Sustainable development is a new challenge to the industry

• Can it be thought of in terms of “accessibility”?

• “Conceptual reserves”: geological, economic and accessible

• But where do we find these?

21 May 2014


Slide 44 of 75


Quiz 2: How can Scandinavian crime

noire help minerals exploration?

21 May 2014


? Image: Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/17/sky-

adapts-scandinavian-drama-the-bridge)

Image: The Telegraph

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/bookreviews/9243399/The-Killing-

by-David-Hewson-review.html)

Slide 45 of 75


DISCOVERED RESOURCES

EM

PE

RIC

AL

EX

PL

OR

AT

ION

UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES

Reserves Inferred

Reserves

Marginal

Reserves

Inferred

Marginal

Reserves

Sub-economic

Resources

Sub-

economic

Reserves

Hypothetical

Resources

Speculative

Resources

“O

PP

OR

TU

NIT

Y C

OS

T” &

“S

US

TA

INA

BL

E

DE

VE

LO

PM

EN

T” P

AR

AD

IGM

S

Exploration via “extrapolation”

21 May 2014


Based on: USBM & USGS (1980)

Slide 46 of 75


DISCOVERED RESOURCES

CONCEPTUAL EXPLORATION

EM

PE

RIC

AL

EX

PL

OR

AT

ION

UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES

Reserves Inferred

Reserves

Marginal

Reserves

Inferred

Marginal

Reserves

Sub-economic

Resources

Sub-

economic

Reserves

Hypothetical

Resources

Speculative

Resources

“O

PP

OR

TU

NIT

Y C

OS

T” &

“S

US

TA

INA

BL

E

DE

VE

LO

PM

EN

T” P

AR

AD

IGM

S

“SEARCH SPACE” PARADIGM

Exploration via “hypothesis”: Searching

for “undiscovered resources”

21 May 2014


Based on: USBM & USGS (1980)

Slide 47 of 75


UNDISCOVERED

UNECONOMIC but

ACCESSIBLE

RESOURCES

DISCOVERED

INACCESSIBLE

ECONOMIC

RESOURCES

DISCOVERED

ECONOMIC but

INACCESSIBLE

(RESOURCES)

UNDISCOVERED

INACCESSIBLE but

ECONOMIC

(RESOURCES)

DISCOVERED

ACCESSIBLE but

UNECONOMIC

(RESOURCES)

UNDISCOVERED

UNECONOMIC but

ACCESSIBLE

(RESOURCES)


EC

ON

OM

IC F

EA

SIB

ILIT

Y

DISCOVERED

ACCESSIBLE

and ECONOMIC

(CONCEPTUAL

RESERVES)

(Behind)

DISCOVERED but

INACCESSIBLE

UNECONOMIC

(RESOURCES)

UNDISCOVERED

INACCESSIBLE and

UNECONOMIC

(RESOURCES)

UNDISCOVERED

but ACCESSIBLE

ECONOMIC

(HYPOTHETICAL

RESERVES)

The resource cube inc. “accessibility”:

“Hypothetical reserve”

21 May 2014


Source: Sykes & Trench (2014)

Slide 48 of 75


But we actually need to know what a

reserve looks like in the future!

21 May 2014


Source: Schodde (2014)

Slide 49 of 75


A thought on forecasting

21 May 2014

"Scythia has an abundance of soothsayers who foretell the future. They are judged by results and the losers are loaded on to oxcarts which are set

on fire.“

- Herodotus, 440BC

(NB: This is a paraphrasing by a former colleague at CRU – John Tomlinson)


Slide 50 of 75


A thought on the future

21 May 2014

“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there”

- Charles F. Kettering (American engineer, inventor of the electric starter, 1876-1958)


Slide 51 of 75


The future is not unknown, just

uncertain (it’s only undiscovered)

21 May 2014


Images: Wikipedia

Thomas Bayes (1701-1761)

- An Essay towards solving a Problem in

the Doctrine of Chances (1765)

Thomas Chowder Chamberlin (1843-1928)

- The method of multiple working

hypotheses (1890)

Slide 52 of 75


Forecasting / forward planning with

uncertainty: Probable versus plausible

21 May 2014

Bayesian mathematics (in minerals

exploration) - Kreuzer et al., 2008

Money

Divides

New

Horizons

Perfect

Storm Phoenix

Rising

Summary of Scenario Analysis on

mining industry and sustainability - Ali, 2010

! Finding the Copper Mine of Tomorrow: In search of hypothetical "reserves"

Slide 53 of 75


Forecasting / forward planning with

uncertainty: Avoiding chaos

21 May 2014

Predetermined

Uncertainty

Time horizon

Level

of

un

cert

ain

ty

Forecasting Scenarios Chaos

Chart based on: Vann (2012)


Slide 54 of 75


Using “Multiple Working Hypotheses” to

stop a “controlling idea”

21 May 2014

Thomas Chowder Chamberlin

(1843-1928)

“The method of multiple

working hypotheses (1890)”

“The method of the ruling theory”

“…a premature explanation passes into a tentative theory, then into an adopted theory, and then into a ruling theory.”

“The method of the working hypothesis”

“Under the method of the ruling theory, the stimulus was directed to the finding of facts for the support of the theory. Under the

working hypothesis, the facts are sought for the purpose of ultimate induction…”

“…a controlling idea”

“…the method… is a marked improvement… but has its defects … the ease with which the hypothesis becomes a controlling idea. To

guard against this, the method of the multiple working hypotheses is urged.”

“The method of the multiple working hypotheses”

“The effort is to bring into view every rational explanation of new phenomena, and to develop every tenable hypothesis respecting their cause and history.”

Image: Wikipedia


Slide 55 of 75


“Multiple working hypotheses” to

“multiple hypothetical reserves”

21 May 2014



EC

ON

OM

IC F

EA

SIB

ILIT

Y

“CONCEPTUAL

RESERVE”

MULTIPLE

“HYPOTHETICAL

RESERVES”

MULTIPLE

“HYPOTHETICAL

RESERVES”

MULTIPLE

“HYPOTHETICAL

RESERVES”

“HYPOTHETICAL

RESERVE”

DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED


Slide 56 of 75


Re-perceiving

21 May 2014


Source: Khong

(2014)

Slide 57 of 75




21 May 2014


? Image: Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/17/sky-





Slide 58 of 75




21 May 2014


?

“Predictors” not “detectives”

System: purpose (motive),

interaction (crime) & elements

(victim, weapon, criminal)

“Smoking” gun approach:

Multiple scenarios – if one thing

doesn’t add up, abandon or adjust - Vann & Stewart (2011); Cleland (2002)

Image: Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/17/sky-





Slide 59 of 75




21 May 2014


?

“Predictive exploration” System: purpose (getting copper),

interaction (mining, processing,

shipping) & elements (land,

labour, capital etc)

Image: Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/17/sky-





“Smoking” gun approach:

Multiple scenarios – if one thing

doesn’t add up, abandon or adjust - Vann & Stewart (2011); Cleland (2002)

Slide 60 of 75


Bringing it altogether…

21 May 2014


CRISCO

(2013)

Compliant

“Resource”

Geological In-principle “Theoretical

Reserve”

Geological

Ec

on

om

ic

In-principle “Accessible

Resource”

Ac

ce

ssib

le

Geological

CONSIDERS

ECONOMIC

POTENTIAL

INCORPORATES

SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

Ec

on

om

ic

Geological

In-principle

“Conceptual

Reserve”

In-principle “Multiple

Hypothetical Reserves”

CONSIDERS

UNCERTAINTY


Slide 61 of 75


Conclusions

• Controlling idea: Exploration has a minimal role in the future of the

copper industry

– Plenty of resources in place

– But low grade or in problematic jurisdictions

– Problems with sustainable development

– Higher prices required to make them economic

– New mining & processing technology needed to mitigate low grades and

environmental & social impact

• Alternative hypothesis: Exploration can open new “search space”

revealing new copper deposits that can be developed economically and

sustainably

• But it requires the building of conceptual exploration capabilities

– Bringing economics into exploration

– Incorporating sustainable development

– Looking into an uncertain the future… …how do we do this?

21 May 2014


Slide 62 of 75



• Surveyed the existing

knowledge

• Came up with an

alternate hypothesis

• Tested the hypothesis

• Thought they were right

• Were actually wrong

(repeatedly)

21 May 2014


Image: Karen Kavett (http://karenkavett.com/blog/943/making-of-guess-who-doctor-who-edition.php)

Slide 63 of 75



21 May 2014


Answer:

Discovering

America!

Image: Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Columbus)

Slide 64 of 75



• Existing knowledge: go east to

get east (Indies)

• Alternate hypothesis: go west

to get east

• Tested hypothesis: sailed west

• Right? Thought he reached the

east (three times)

• Wrong? Had actually reached

the Caribbean (West Indies)

21 May 2014



Slide 65 of 75



21 May 2014


Moral of the

story:

Good questions

help manage

serendipity?


Slide 66 of 75



Bonus points

• What is success? (Discovering America vs “being

right”)

• Good questions point others in the right direction

(Magellan)

• Economic motivation to exploration (Spice Islands)

• But requires economic opportunism (looking for

spices but found Mexican & Peruvian silver)

• Alternative funding methods (Spanish not Portuguese

funded)

• Beware the historical record (flat world, Columbus

discovered America)

• Commercialisation = discovery (Vikings & Chinese)

• Discovery is relative (Native Americans)

• Explorers make terrible managers (Columbus a

tyrant)

21 May 2014



Slide 67 of 75


Now back to work…

“Be a philosopher;

but, amidst all

your philosophy,

be still a man” – David Hume An Enquiry Concerning Human

Understanding (1748)

21 May 2014


Image: Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hume)

Slide 68 of 75


Further reading

• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014. Resources versus Reserves:

Towards a systems-based understanding of exploration and mine

project development and the role of the mining geologist. AusIMM

Ninth International Mining Geology Conference. Adelaide,

Australia. August.

• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014. Finding the copper mine of the

21st century: Conceptual exploration targeting for hypothetical

reserves. Society of Economic Geologists Conference. Colorado,

USA. September.

• Trench, A., Packey, D., & Sykes, J.P., 2014. Non-technical risks

and their impact on mining. AusIMM Monograph 30 on Mineral

Resource & Ore Reserve Estimation. Chapter 7: Risk in Resource

and Reserve Estimation.

21 May 2014


Slide 69 of 75


Other references [1] • Agricola, Georgius. 1556. De Re Metallica. 1950 Translation from the First Latin Edition of 1556. Translated by Herbert

C. Hoover and Lou H. Hoover. New York, USA: Dover Publications.

• Ali, Saleem H. 2010. Treasures of the Earth: Need, Greed, and a Sustainable Future. New Haven, USA: Yale University

Press.

• Anglo American. 2013. Anglo American statement re: Pebble project. 16th September.

http://www.angloamerican.com/media/releases/2013pr/2013-09-16.

• Bayes, Thomas , and Richard Price. 1765. "An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chance. By the Late

Rev. Mr. Bayes, Communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, MA and FRS." Philosophical Transactions of

the Royal Society of London 53 (0): 370-418. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1763.0053.

• BHP Billiton. 2012. Olympic Dam Update. 6th December.

http://www.bhpbilliton.com/home/investors/news/Pages/Articles/Olympic-Dam-Update.aspx.

• Cairns, Chris, Jon Hronsky, and Richard Schodde. 2010. Market Failure in the Australian Mineral Exploration Industry:

The Case for Fiscal Incentives. Perth, Australia: Australian Institute of Geoscientists.

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