Financial Outlook FY2010 – FY2011

Financial Outlook FY2010 – FY2011

March 04, 2010

2

Employment Economic Indicators

Change in EmploymentJanuary 2002 - December 2009

(Growth / Decline)

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(% G

row

th)

Houston Texas U.S

Data seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

3

General Fund Revenues

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

($ T

ho

usa

nd

s)

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

(% G

row

th)

Revenues 1,344,594 1,350,901 1,400,212 1,473,881 1,552,620 1,655,281 1,761,737 1,824,306 1,775,164 1,752,107

Percentage 6.14% 0.47% 3.65% 5.26% 5.34% 6.61% 6.43% 3.55% -2.69% -1.30%

FY2002 Actual

FY2003 Actual

FY2004 Actual

FY2005 Actual

FY2006 Actual

FY2007 Actual

FY2008 Actual

FY2009 Actual

FY2010 Estimate

(1)

FY2011 Forecast

(2)

(1) FY2010 is based on current estimate (January MFOR)(2) FY2011 Forecast is based on Five Year Plan as of March 04, 2010

4

Sales Tax Revenues

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

($ T

ho

usa

nd

s)

-14.00%

-9.00%

-4.00%

1.00%

6.00%

11.00%

16.00%

(% G

row

th)

Revenues 347,982 370,583 422,598 461,417 495,173 507,103 466,000 477,697

Percentage 7.89% 6.49% 14.04% 9.19% 7.32% 2.41% -8.11% 2.51%

FY2004 Actual

FY2005 Actual

FY2006 Actual

FY2007 Actual

FY2008 Actual

FY2009 Actual

FY2010 Estimate

(1)

FY2011 Forecast

(2)


5

Property Tax Revenues

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

($ T

ho

usa

nd

s)

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

(% G

row

th)

Property Tax 660,999 671,294 705,952 748,792 830,889 890,088 891,216 839,278

Percentage 3.93% 1.56% 5.16% 6.07% 10.96% 7.12% 0.13% -5.83%

FY2004 Actual

FY2005 Actual

FY2006 Actual

FY2007 Actual

FY2008 Actual

FY2009 Actual

FY2010 Estimate

(1)

FY2011 Forecast

(2)


6

General Fund Expenditures

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

($ T

ho

us

an

ds

)

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

(% G

row

th)

Expenditures 1,362,767 1,363,907 1,235,996 1,279,217 1,368,746 1,459,075 1,567,491 1,668,698 1,676,657 1,715,501

Percentage 5.44% 0.08% -9.38% 3.50% 7.00% 6.60% 7.43% 6.46% 0.48% 2.32%

FY2002 Actual

FY2003 Actual

FY2004 Actual

FY2005 Actual

FY2006 Actual

FY2007 Actual

FY2008 Actual

FY2009 Actual

FY2010 Estimate

(1)

FY2011 Forecast

(2)

(1) FY2010 is based on current budget (January MFOR)(2) FY2011 Forecast is based on Five Year Plan as of March 04, 2010

7

General Fund Growth RateRevenues vs. Expenditures

-12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

(% C

han

ge)

Revenues Growth 6.14% 0.47% 3.65% 5.26% 5.34% 6.61% 6.43% 3.55% -2.69% -1.30%

Expenditures Growth 5.44% 0.08% -9.38% 3.50% 7.00% 6.60% 7.43% 6.46% 0.48% 2.32%

FY2002 Actual

FY2003 Actual

FY2004 Actual

FY2005 Actual

FY2006 Actual

FY2007 Actual

FY2008 Actual

FY2009 Actual

FY2010 Estimate

(1)

FY2011 Forecast

(2)


8

Fund Balance Change

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

($ T

ho

usa

nd

s)

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

(% C

han

ge)

Fund Balance 105,101 110,778 120,042 175,832 234,535 253,514 236,774 163,072 133,388

% Fund Balance Growth 20.24% 5.40% 8.36% 46.48% 33.39% 8.09% -6.60% -31.13% -18.20%

FY2003 Actual

FY2004 Actual

FY2005 Actual

FY2006 Actual

FY2007 Actual

FY2008 Actual

FY2009 Actual

FY2010 Estimate

(1)

FY2011 Forecast

(2)


Documents

Financial Outlook FY2010 – FY2011