FINAL REPORT - JICA · mints – misr national transport study the comprehensive study on the master plan for nationwide transport system in the arab republic of egypt final report

E I DJ R

12-039

No.

MiNTS – MISR NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY

THE COMPREHENSIVE STUDY ON THE MASTER PLAN

FOR NATIONWIDE TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN

THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

FINAL REPORT

TECHNICAL REPORT 12 PROJECT PRIORITIZATION

March 2012

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY

ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. ALMEC CORPORATION

KATAHIRA & ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL

TRANSPORT PLANNING AUTHORITY MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

E I DJ R

12-039

No.

MiNTS – MISR NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY

THE COMPREHENSIVE STUDY ON THE MASTER PLAN

FOR NATIONWIDE TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN

THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

FINAL REPORT

TECHNICAL REPORT 12 PROJECT PRIORITIZATION

March 2012

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY

ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. ALMEC CORPORATION

KATAHIRA & ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL

TRANSPORT PLANNING AUTHORITY MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

USD1.00 = EGP5.96 USD1.00 = JPY77.91

(Exchange rate of January 2012)

MiNTS: Misr National Transport Study Technical Report 12

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Item Page

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................1-1

1.1. BACKGROUND.........................................................................................................................................1-1 1.2. THE MiNTS FRAMEWORK.......................................................................................................................1-1

1.2.1. Study Scope and Objectives .......................................................................................................1-1 1.2.2. A Consultative Planning Process ................................................................................................1-2 1.2.3. Sustainability and Human Resources Development ...................................................................1-3

1.3. REPORTING STRUCTURE ......................................................................................................................1-3

CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW.................................................................................................................................2-1

2.1. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY..............................................................................................................2-1 2.2. STUDY SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES .........................................................................................................2-1 2.3. TECH REPORT 12 TOPICS......................................................................................................................2-2

CHAPTER 3: THE NEED FOR MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS .........................................................................3-1

3.1. THE COMPLESITY OF MODERN LOGISTICS.........................................................................................3-1 3.2. MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS: THE APPROPRIATE METHOD.................................................................3-2 3.3. THE ADDED VALUE OF MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS.............................................................................3-2

CHAPTER 4: THE PILOT PROJECTS.............................................................................................................4-1

4.1. PROJECT DIVERSIFICATION PREREQUISITE.......................................................................................4-1 4.2. THE SELECTED PILOT PROJECTS ........................................................................................................4-2 4.3. SPECIAL INTEREST PROJECTS.............................................................................................................4-6

4.3.1. The Intermodal Transport Corridor..............................................................................................4-6 4.3.2. The Egyptian Transport Center (ETC) ........................................................................................4-8

CHAPTER 5: METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................................5-1

5.1. KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE APPLIED METHODOLOGY..............................................................5-1 5.2. THE OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE INDICATORS ......................................................................................5-2

5.2.1. Operational Indicators .................................................................................................................5-2 5.2.2. Performance Indicators ...............................................................................................................5-2 5.2.3. Implementation indicators ...........................................................................................................5-3 5.2.4. System Sustainability Indicators .................................................................................................5-4

5.3. EVALUATION INDICATORS AND POLITICAL STRATEGY ......................................................................5-4 5.4. EVALUATION CRITERIA VALUES ..........................................................................................................5-10 5.5. MODEL TESTING.................................................................................................................................... 5-11

CHAPTER 6: MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS.....................................................................................................6-1

6.1. MCA BASIC RESULTS..............................................................................................................................6-1 6.2. CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE PRIORITY PROJECTS .....................................................................6-7

CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...........................................................................7-1

CHAPTER 8: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS..............................................................................................................8-1

8.1. METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................8-1 8.2. BASIC ASSUMPTION ...............................................................................................................................8-1 8.3. ESTIMATED COSTS .................................................................................................................................8-2

8.3.1. Project Costs...............................................................................................................................8-2 8.3.2. Operation and Maintenance Costs..............................................................................................8-3

8.4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS ............................................................................................................................8-3 8.5. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................................8-5


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8.6. SENSITIVE ANALYSIS..............................................................................................................................8-6

APPENDIX

1. PROJECT MAP BY TERMS ..................................................................................................................... A-1 2. TIME FRAME OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION BY CORRIDOR ......................................................... A-4 3. PROJECT OUTLINE BY CORRIDOR .................................................................................................... A-14 4. CORRIDOR RANKING........................................................................................................................... A-26


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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1. BACKGROUND

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Transport Planning Authority of the Ministry of Transport are cooperating in the conduct of the Comprehensive Study on The Master Plan for Nationwide Transport System in the Arab Republic of Egypt (MiNTS – Misr National Transport Study), based upon agreements finalized during July, 20091. Oriental Consultants Company Limited, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is the designated lead consultant for the study. Associated firms are Almec Corporation, Japan and Katahira & Engineers International, Japan. Technical efforts in Egypt were initiated during December, 2009.

1.2. THE MiNTS FRAMEWORK

1.2.1. Study Scope and Objectives

MiNTS is comprehensive in nature, that is, approaches have been designed to mitigate transport problems and contribute to the sustainable development of the nation. Investigative efforts extend over the entirety of the Republic (Figure 1.2.1) with a particular focus being major corridors of movement for both persons and cargo. All major modes of transport are addressed including road, rail, maritime, inland waterway, civil aviation and pipeline. However, the practical master planning focus falls upon those modes falling under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Transport; that is, the road, rail, maritime and inland waterway sectors.

Five key milestones form the foundation upon which planning efforts are based:

Establish a nationwide, multi-modal database whose validity rests on a series of focused transport survey and data collection exercises;

Formulate overall strategies and policies for development of the nationwide transport fabric;

Develop an integrated, multi-modal transport master plan with years 2017, 2022 and 2027 being short, medium and ultimate planning horizons, respectively;

Identification, within the master plan framework, of high-priority projects; and,

Implementation of an effective and productive technology transfer program with Egyptian counterparts.

1 Scope of Work - Comprehensive Study on The Master Plan for Nationwide Transport System in the Arab Republic of Egypt, as mutually agreed upon

between the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Ministry of Transport, Government of Egypt, July 16, 2009.


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Int’l Airport

Domestic Airport

Int’l Airport

Domestic Airport

Source: JICA Study Team

Figure 1.2.1 MiNTS Study Area

The transport strategy embedded within MiNTS must concurrently contribute to an efficient economic structure, strengthen linkages within Egypt as well as with neighboring countries, and provide a base for market-oriented transport activity. Economic expansion and social transformations within Egypt are well underway; continuing improvements in productivity and well-being are expected. As economic growth continues, changes in transport activities and behavior will follow suit. Thus, the foci of transport planning must gradually shift from alleviation of present deficiencies to realization of a transport system founded upon sustainable evolution and integrated, mutually supportive transport solutions. This strategy is particularly valid given the almost 20-year planning horizon adopted by MiNTS.

1.2.2. A Consultative Planning Process

The final structure of MiNTS, and the successful reception thereof, can only be achieved as a direct result of cooperative efforts and close liaison between the Study Team and local experts. Considerable efforts have been expended in gathering information, reviewing previous studies and holding numerous discussions to enhance knowledge of, and sensitivity to, local transport conditions, norms and practices.

The Study Team, housed in the offices of the Transport Planning Authority, Ministry of Transport, is being strongly assisted by its designated counterpart Special Working Group, Coordination Committee and Steering Committee. Thus, continuous and productive technical liaison is being maintained with a number of organizations including the Ministry of Transport and various entities thereof (Office of the Minister, Transport Planning Authority, Egypt National Railways, General Authority for Roads, Bridges and Land Transport, General Authority for River Transport, Maritime Transport Sector); the Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Communities; Ministry of Civil Aviation; Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation;


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Ministry of Trade and Industry; Ministry of Industrial Development; Ministry of Interior; Ministry of Local Development; Ministry of Finance; State Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sector of International Cooperation; Ministry of the Environment; CAPMAS (Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics); as well as various Governorates and entities thereof. Close coordination has also been effected with Universities and various departments within those learned institutions.

Likewise, effective consultations are programmed with various international agencies, funding institutions, donors, and consultant groups in order to obtain an overview of previous, current, and likely future activities and/or involvement in Egypt.

1.2.3. Sustainability and Human Resources Development

The components of the Master Plan diversify beyond the traditional “hardware” concepts associated with infrastructure provision. Additional key elements of the process consist of “software” aspects, that is, available technology, international standards, and modal integration needs (cargo/passenger terminals, logistics chains, transfer points) as well as “humanware” needs. In the latter case, this represents the cultivation of human resources via the designation of training and education programs as well as other requirements for developing expertise. In other words, “sustainability”, or the notion that the planning process must allow Egyptian stakeholders to participate in visualizing and shaping their own future. This is of substantial importance in terms of ownership building if MiNTS is to be adopted and used by the people and their elected officials both during, and following, the conduct of MiNTS.

1.3. REPORTING STRUCTURE

The Final Report consists of three elements: The Master Plan report, Technical Reports and Appendix Reports.

The Master Plan report is seen as the main document whose intent is to present, in a synoptic sense, main findings of the MiNTS investigations;

Technical Reports represent a series of sector-specific reports which document the technical underpinning of The Master Plan document (Table 1.3.1), and,

Appendix Reports represent task-specific or activity-specific documents and other data summaries, some of which have been developed in response to client group requests.


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Table 1.3.1 Technical Reporting Structure

Report Number Subject

1 Road Sector

2 Rail Sector

3 Inland Waterway Transport Sector

4 Maritime Sector

5 Civil Aviation and Pipeline Sectors

6 Demand Simulation and Scenario Testing

7 Organizational and Functional Aspects of the Transport Sector

8 Private Sector Participation

9 Environmental Considerations

10 The MiNTS Vision, Policies and Strategies

11 Transport Survey Findings

12 Project Prioritization

13 Counterpart Training Program



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CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW

2.1. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Since 2004 Egypt has been undergoing rapid economic growth at about 7% p.a. during the three fiscal years from 2005-2006 to 2007-2008. This growth was achieved by the rise in domestic consumption through economic reforms such as reduction of customs duty and individual income tax. Along with recent rapid economic growth, the demand for passenger and freight traffic has also been growing dramatically, especially the freight demand. The increase of transport demand as well as the change of origin-destination (OD) patterns has brought about the necessity for developing new ports, airports, roads and industrial parks and containerization.

In response to this situation, the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt (GOE) has designated 5 general strategies in “The Sixth Five-Year Plan 2007-2012” as follows:

1) Achieving integration and harmony among different internal modes of transport to efficiently meet the increasing demand,

2) Strengthening the private sector role and ownership, and increasing economic efficiency of market-oriented economic units,

3) Achieving better security and safety levels within transportation means, and limiting the environmental negative impacts,

4) Increasing railways efficiency through restructuring the Egyptian National Railways (ENR) to ensure better levels of services and return,

5) Developing maritime ports in compliance with international agreements for maritime safety and raising their competitiveness.

These strategies together with other alternative strategies are to be evaluated through the Study and eventually to establish more effective strategies for the development of the transport sector while ensuring positive impacts to other economic activities.

In the light of the above circumstances, the Government of Egypt officially requested the Government of Japan (GOJ) to extend technical assistance for carrying out the Comprehensive Study on the Master Plan for Nationwide Transport System in the Arab Republic of Egypt (hereinafter referred to as “the Study”).

Accordingly, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the official agency responsible for the implementation of the GOJ’s ODA programs, and the Transport Planning Authority of the Ministry of Transport are cooperating in the conduct of the Study (MiNTS – Misr National Transport Study), based upon agreements finalized during July, 2009. Oriental Consultants Company Limited, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is the designated lead consultant for the study. Associated firms are Almec Corporation, Japan and Katahira & Engineers International, Japan. Technical efforts in Egypt were initiated during December, 2009.

2.2. STUDY SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES

A basic premise of all investigations is that the MiNTS shall be comprehensive in nature, that is, adopt approaches designed to address overall transport issues and to propose transport strategies for the


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sustainable development of the nation. All major modes of transport are to be covered including road, rail, maritime, inland waterway, air and pipeline. However, the practical master planning focus will be those modes falling under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Transport; that is, the road, rail, maritime and inland waterway sectors.

Study objectives upon which study efforts are based:

To prepare reliable transport database inclusive of OD tables by mode, which can be utilized to

evaluate and/or formulate transport development plans/projects in a scientific manner by conducting

nationwide transport surveys

To re-formulate the overall strategy and policies for nationwide transport system development

To formulate Master Plan for a nationwide transport system with justification of selected

priority/leading projects

To transfer technologies to Egyptian counterparts

2.3. TECH REPORT 12 TOPICS

The subject of TECH Report 12 relates to the efforts of evaluating and prioritizing the proposed projects. TECH Report 12 discusses respectively:

Chapter 2: The need for multi-criteria analysis;

Chapter 3 : The pilot projects;

Chapter 4: Methodology;

Chapter 5: Testing the model;

Chapter 6: Multi-criteria Analysis;

Chapter 7: Results of the Multi-criteria Analysis;

Chapter 8: Implementation Logic; and

Chapter 9: Conclusions and Recommendations


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CHAPTER 3: THE NEED FOR MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS

3.1. THE COMPLESITY OF MODERN LOGISTICS

Modern logistics service providers are organisations supplying either logistical or advanced physical distribution services. Different types of logistics providers are shown in Figure 3.1.1 based on the supply-chain function and how this is reflected in the supply-chain hierarchy.

1. Increasing complexity

2. More intimate industry/ customer knowledge and IT interface

3. Higher level customer interface

4. Less Asset-intensive

Supply-chain Hierarchy

4 PL

3 PL

2 PL

4 PL

3 PL

2 PL

Strategy/ Planning

Solutions/ Coordination

Transport Management/

Execution

• Physical transportation and warehousing services

• Design segment supply-chain solutions• Coordination of material movement and

transport optimization solutions

• Develop overall supply-chain strategy and planning the solutions requirements

• Strategic activity for customer competitiveness

Functions DefinedSupply-chain

Function

Figure 3.1.1 Supply Chain Function/Hierarchy

Figure 3.1.1 shows at the bottom of the hierarchy pyramid the two party logistics provider (2PL) environment where physical transport and warehousing are discrete business activities and in which there is generally low asset intensity. Basically, this consists of standard transport applications and represents a simple form of physical distribution. Most road transporters, shipping companies and the railways would be classified as 2PLs, as they usually only manage the transport activity. This supply-chain function progresses upwards into the more complex solutions and coordination involved in third party logistics provider (3PL) activities. This operation is based on outsourcing by either a supplier or receiver for an increasing amount of the logistics chain and thus requires greater customer orientation and the employment of significantly greater assets. The 3PLs operate in the logistics sector and in the upper end of the physical distribution market. These are the parties mainly present in the logistics terminals. Finally at the top is the more complex 4PL where an integrator assembles the resources, capabilities and technology of its own organisation and other organisations to design, build and run comprehensive supply chain solutions.

With the introduction of modern logistics in the Egyptian transport system, investment decisions can no longer be taken solely upon the capital value of the investment and the financial and economic return of the investment as it is defined by traditional Cost Benefit Analysis. A more comprehensive evaluation will be necessary that determines the true benefit of planned investments taking into account also non-quantifiable elements that will be essential in facilitating the transformation and modernization of the Egyptian transport sector and increase the attractiveness for the private sector to invest in the system and stimulate using the country as value added platform where transit cargo is not simply transferred but where value is added to the cargo prior to re-shipping the cargo out of Egypt..


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Figure 3.2.1 The integrated vision on sector improvement

3.2. MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS: THE APPROPRIATE METHOD

MiNTS has identified a series of problems which need to be addressed, relating not only to infrastructure needs (hardware level), but also to non-infrastructure levels, i.e. the software and humanware levels. These three intervention levels are fully integrated and need simultaneous and integrated attention as suggested in エラー! 参照元が見つかりません。.

At the hardware level and both for passenger and freight transport, the key issue is the ever growing dominance of road cargo transport and the stagnation and even gradual decline of the IWT and rail modes. This is due to a number of reasons including lagging investments, dated infrastructure as well as rolling stock/fleets that have exceeded their practical service life. This situation increases operating costs and reduces revenues and performance. At the societal level, the dominance of road transport has catalyzed increasing congestion problems, considerable safety concerns as well as environmental degradation due to the use of polluting equipment.

The key issue at the software level is the lack of modernization of the transport sector as a whole and of the railway and river transport sectors in particular, leading to low performance, poor capacity utilization and weak growth prospects. This created the present situation where the IWT and railway sectors are limited in their capacity to capture new cargo, shift towards new markets, container transport in particular, and efficiently compete with the road sector. The rail and IWT sectors are at present confronted with a wide range of internal hindrances and external impediments related to market access, administrative practices, lack of intermodal systems, the poorly adapted regulatory frameworks and inability to operate in an increasingly competitive and global market

The final of three components is at the humanware level. One of the key elements to attend is the problem that the sector suffers from a severe shortage of qualified staff, due to a lack of training programs and human resource development, in particular related to the introduction (and maintenance) of modern technologies in the sector. Qualified personnel to implement and operate a unified, computerized, GIS friendly data system encompassing all transport modes, are a key objective and projects in this field need to be addressed with priority, given they are an urgent prerequisite for efficient transport planning. The humanware factor is therefore a necessary complement to efforts at the software level as it will provide the necessary expertise to efficiently and effectively apply modern software applications.

Any evaluation of a set of investment projects that aim at improving sector performance imperatively has to include projects related to hardware, software and humanware, considering these three groups at equal value.

3.3. THE ADDED VALUE OF MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS

Project evaluation is frequently conducted by means of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). The evaluation technique is widely recognized as appropriate for appreciating the contribution of a project to long-term sustainable economic development. The CBA identifies the costs and benefits of projects without possible distortions generated by efforts to assess non-quantifiable variables. The Cost Benefit Analysis is a means-end assessment defined by economic circumstances and where the investment is decided upon the conditioned evaluation cycle where input generates a result. As far as components are quantifiable, the CBA (can) incorporate(s) creative thinking by which less-tangible parameters are translated into “quantifiable” decision parameters.


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Whatever the level of creativity, the CBA upholds the principle that a final recommendation can only be made on the basis of a numerical (formal) evaluation that uses mathematical algorithms without any distorting interventions in which costs are compared with revenues. The costs include development costs and operations and maintenance costs. Benefits which can be expected by the implementation include but are not exclusively related to savings in travel time and distance, provision of higher quality traffic services and improvement of area attractiveness. The cost benefit analysis thus follows a conventional discounted cash flow methodology, comparing project benefits and project costs.

But as suggested in the European Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects (1987), the evaluation methodology will also include an analytical section where non-quantifiable variables are taken into consideration in addition to economic and financial variables which are part of the classic CBA. For the non-quantifiable variables, costs and benefits will be “…identified, quantified and given a realistic monetary value, if possible. If this is difficult or impossible this costs and benefits should be quantified at least in physical terms for a qualitative appraisal.” (Guide p 31, cit).

The expansion of the classic CBA by means of a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) is increasingly needed for high-capital and long-term investment projects with substantial repercussions on economy and society. Therefore, it is important to include in the evaluation the impacts of “external” conditions because the value of projects is no longer defined only by its monetary performance but also by non-quantifiable variables to assess the possible contribution of “external” conditions in addition to revenues, costs, and implementation time.

The key advantage of MCA is that it allows integrating into a comprehensive assessment both quantifiable and non-quantifiable variables, offering therewith a full-scale multi-dimensional appreciation of different development alternatives facilitating at the end its ranking and prioritization. MCA does not intent to replace the financial and economic rationale of a CBA as this could create reliability problems because there would leave the project appreciation process without objectively verifiable indicators. The reason for evaluating candidate projects by means of an MCA is order to be as “creative” as possible in an effort to appreciate a range of strategic variables using an algorithm-based calculation methodology.

In the description on how to execute a MCA, also the allocation of weights to different variables is proposed by which recorded values for each of the non-quantifiable variables should be multiplied. According to the authors of the Guide, the MCA “… methodology is particularly effective when the monetisation of costs and benefits is difficult or even impossible” (Guide to cost-benefit analysis, 1987, p 37, cit). The rank-weighting evaluation method of MCA thus incorporates arguments generally excluded in traditional (numerical) evaluation methods to allow comparing possible investment alternatives against concrete monetary and non-monetary policy objectives, therewith attributing equal importance to hardware software and humanware needs.


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CHAPTER 4: THE PILOT PROJECTS

4.1. PROJECT DIVERSIFICATION PREREQUISITE

The study identified a series of problems which need to be addressed in the future.

The evaluation and prioritization of proposed projects that address these problems need to acknowledge that improvements are achieved not only by developing hardware (infrastructure) but also by developing and modernizing equipment and operations (the software component) because technological innovation is the driving force in modern logistics. Technology defines the competitiveness of the transport system and of logistics and transport services and will stimulate intermodal transport solutions and improve the commercial utilization of the river and railways in addition to road transport. Software measures need to be considered with high priority because they will allow the two ailing sectors to capture new and alternative traffic.

But innovation of the Egyptian transport market needs to be complemented with humanware initiatives oriented towards establishing a sustainable regulatory framework and a system of efficient and effective sector governance. Coordination between related ministries and organizations should be enhanced and the present fragmentation in transport planning, implementation and operations, eliminated by reducing the direct or indirect intervention of a myriad of organizations, entities and Ministries with little evidence of efficient, market-responsive overview guidance or control.

The problems of the Egyptian transport sector to be addressed thus relate not only to infrastructure needs (hardware component) but also include intervention at the non-infrastructure levels, i.c. the software and humanware levels:

At the hardware level, the key issue is the ever growing dominance of road cargo transport and the stagnation and even gradual decline of the river and rail modes forced to use due to lack of investments old infrastructure and rolling stock/fleets that have exceeded their practical service life span. This situation increases operating costs and reduces revenues and performance. At the societal level, the dominance of road transport with increasing congestion problems and the use of old polluting equipments lead to environmental degradation.

The dominant issue at the software level is the lack of modernization leading to low performance, poor capacity utilization and the existence of a wide range of internal hindrances and external impediments related to market access, administrative practices, lack of intermodal systems, inability to operate in a competitive market.

The final of three components, the humanware, is imperative to shift transport of cargo and passengers from the road to the alternative transport modes, only possible if and when attending the sector’s severe shortage of qualified staff, lack of training and human resource development programs, in particular related to implement and operate a unified data system (ideally computerized and/or GIS friendly) encompassing all transport modes, a prerequisite for efficient transport planning.

The evaluation criteria that will be used in the project analysis and prioritization efforts will reflect the key needs at the level of hardware, software and humanware and will be complemented by other criteria that focus other issues related to for example the environmental contribution of the project.


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It is important that the project evaluation indicators, used to assess the priority of the proposed projects, reflect these issues and prioritize projects that bring concrete solutions or improve the current situation and bring the problem closer to being solved.

4.2. THE SELECTED PILOT PROJECTS

Table 1.3.1 lists the recommended pilot projects that emerged out of the MiNTS study.

Table 4.2.1 Recommended pilot projects

CORRIDOR ID NAME PROJECT OUTLINE

RD-300 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway connects from Cairo to Borg el Arab in desert area by 6-lanes [New Expressway]

RD-204 Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes)

Committed project is 6-lanes. [Upgrade of Expressway]

RD-301 3rd Stage Regional Ring Road (Southern Part of Expressway)

forms southern part of Outer Ring Road [New Expressway]

RD-998 Alexandria Bypass forms urban ring road connects the Cairo-Alex desert expressway [New Art. Road]

RW-403 Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria

for freight line (diesel) with local passenger

RW-406 Railway Link for 6th of October City connects from RW-403 and Baharia line via L-1 [New Rail Line]

RW-407 Railway Link between Robeki to Helwan

forms a part of south ring railway route [New Rail Line]

RW-412 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2stations)

Good intermodal connection & facilities, railway layout/arrangement, warehouse and station office at Qabbary and other station

RW-420 Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan

New freight railway line for direct link from Sokhna port to 6th of October [New Rail Line]

L-1 VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6 th of October City

New VAL/ Distribution Center

IW-1 IWT port for ITC connects to south ring railway route around Helwan, Tebbin port improvement, includes waterway, navigation and lock operation improvement.

RW-304 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria [High/Higher speed Alt-1]

connects to Alex. to Cairo (6th of October, Smart city) along Cairo - Alex. dessert road, directly, average operational speed 200kph, [New HSR]

IW-5 Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Alexisandoria

aims to dredging for safe navigability preventing from sedimentation (width 40m x dredging depth 1.5m x203km).

PT-1 Establishment of a Multi Purpose Terminal (Containers and General Cargo) at Alexandria Port

to ensure the capacity of future container demand for Alex. and Dekheila, 1) The development of the berths area (55,56,57,58,59,60), 2) Dredging the berths to reach a depth of 14 m instead of 5,6,9,10m, 3) Using the soil resulting from the dredging operations in the establishment of the terminal's yards, 4) The lengths of the berths are expected to reach 1,630m, 5) The area = approx. 290 thousand m2, (proposed by previous JICA study in 1990)

PT-2 Development of Management and Operation for Multi Purpose Terminal in El Dekheila Port

to ensure future cargo demand in 2027 as an essential port for the window of Intermodal Transport Corridor to conect to railway and road with smooth and well organized, located between berth 91 and 92, A maritime dock composed of 2 berths with total length up to 800m and a depth not less than 14-15m, Storing yards, warehouses and administrative buildings over an area up to 262.370 thousand m2, Water surface of about 162 thousand m2, Breakwater project is under construction.

INTE

RM

OD

AL T

RAN

SPO

RT

CO

RR

IDO

R

PT-3 Dekheira Port: New Container Terminal

to ensure future cargo demand in 2027 as a window of Intermodal Transport Corridor, to access to railway and road with smooth and well organized connection, Breakwater construction project is under implementation

CAI

RO

- AL

EXAN

DR

IA

RD-302 Cairo Alex Agriculture Bypass Kafr El Zayat - Alexandria

bypass road for Tanta to Alex. in south side of agricultural road in 6-lanes [New Art. Road]


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RD-315 Shubra elkhema - Banha Agriculture Road (Expressway)

bypass road for Cairo to Benha in west side, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RW-400 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria via Tanta [High/Higher speed Alt-2]

Alternative route of Italian proposal [RW-304 Alt-1], average operational speed 200kph <only for confirming demands compared with RW-304> [New HSR]

RW-402-1 Improvement of Tracks 1)Track renewal, 2)New track maintenance machines, Cairo - Tanta - Alex.

RD-999 Cairo - Tanta Bypass bypass road for Cairo to Tanta in east side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-332 Zakaziq – Toukh bypass road for Benha to Zagazik in south side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-304 Rod El Farag Road connects from Cairo city to 6th of October, 6-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-333 Tanta - Kafr El Sheikh forms regional road for north bound from Tanta, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-334 Al Mahalla - Kafr El Sheikh – Damanhour

connects regional road located on the north side of Tanta, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-318 Desouq Fowa Metobas Road located along Nile river right side near Alex., 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-319 Imbaba Qalyub Tawfekia Road located along Nile river left side from Cairo, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-320 El-Qanater El-Bagour Shebin El-Koum Tanta Mahalla Matboul Road

In parallel to Cairo - Tanta agricultural road, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-200 Belbeis-Banha-El Bagour-El Khatatba Regional Ring Road

forms Northern part of Outer Ring Road, also the role of Mediterranean Corridor, 6-lanes, 100km/h [New Expressway]

RD-214 Zaqaziq Sinbellaween Road under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-215 Mansoura Talha Dekernes Mataria Road

under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-216 Qantara Salheya Faqous Abu Kbeir Hehya Zaqaziq Road


RW-301 Single Tracking for Basion City not in main line between Cairo - Alex. [New Rail Line]

RW-307 Double Tracking for Qalyoub - El Qnater

not in main line between Cairo - Alex. [Double Tracking]

RW-308 Triple Tracking for Qalyoub - Benha connects Cairo - Qalyoub with triple tracks [Triple Tracking]

INLA

ND

DEL

TA

RW-401 Improvement of Track Arrangement for Cairo – Qalyub

Cairo and Qalyub Station: Rearrangement of track lines, Qalyub Station: Construction of elevated railway, [Track Improvement]

RD-308 Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway)

connects from ring road to Port Said, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RW-313 Railway Link for 10th of Ramadhan City

connects between Tel el Kebir to Robeki through Logistics Center [New Rail Line]

RW-302 Single Tracking for Kafr El-Batikh - New Damietta City

Damietta City only [New Rail Line]

RW-309 Double Tracking for Mansoura – Damietta

connects to Damietta [Double Tracking]

RW-310 Improvement of Signaling System for Increase of Freight Trains

connects for Tanta - Mansoura - Damietta [Signal Improvement]

RW-402-2 Improvement of Tracks 1)Track renewal, 2) New track maintenance machines, Damietta, Port Said line

IW-6 Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Damietta

aims to dredging for safe navigability preventing from sedimentation (width 40m x dredging depth 2m x200km).

PT-4 Damietta Port; Study on Sedimentation problema

detailed study (10mil.LE) is requred to find suitable solution to sedimentation problem. Note that Damietta port authority used about 75mil.LE for annual maitenance for dredging.

CAI

RO

-DAM

IETT

A / P

OR

T SA

ID

PT-5 Port Said East: Logistic Center exist the plan by 1st Stage in 2008, not sure the detail

CAIRO - SUEZ RD-310 Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway)

connects form ring road to Suez, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]


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RW-300 Double Tracking for Ain Shams – Robeki

from Cairo - Robekki along Cairo - Suez line [Double Tracking]

RD-323 Wadi Alnatroum Saloum Road connects to Libya, in parallel to RD-307 in desert area, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-307 Alexandria-Saloum Road connects to Libya along coastline, 4-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RD-309 Qantara-Rafah Road connects to Rafah along coast line, 6-lane, 100kmh [Upgrade to Expressway]

RD-316 Alamein Road forms shortcut route from Cairo-Alex. Desert Road to Western Mediterranean Coast Roads, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Upgrade of Art. Road]

RW-312 Single Tracking for Bir El Abd - Rafah connects to Rafah along coast line [New Rail Line]

MED

ITER

RAN

EAN

RW-410 Rehabilitation of Tracks for El-Kab - Bir El Abd

connects to Suez bridge, Port Said East and RW-312 [Track Improvement]

RD-311 Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway)

connects from Suez to Taba border, 4-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RD-327 Suez Canal Tunnel Ismailia New tunnel at Suez Canal to connect RD-328, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Tunnel] SI

NAI

RD-328 Alawga Ismailia Road connects from Ismailia to Alawaga border, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-326 Albetrol Malwa Road forms shortcut route from Borg el Arab to Asyut, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-331 Qena Aswan Nile East Bank Road runs to the east side of Nile river in desert, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-312 Cairo - Asyut Desert Western Road (Expressway)

runs to the west side of Nile river in desert, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RD-313-1 Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) Asyut to Aswan

connects from RW-312 in desert, 6-lanes, 100kh/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RD-225 El-Belina - Tahta Road connects from RD-312 to west agricultural road, under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-298 Kalabsha Bridge (Koum Ombo) (Aswan)

connects to both side of Nile river [New Bridge]

RD-299 Abo Tig Bridge and Selim Coast (Asyut)

connects to both side of Nile river [New Bridge]

RW-999 (High) Speed Railway for Cairo - Aswan [Electrificated]

New line for passenger railway (200kph) stopping at only major cities [New HSR]

RW-306 Development of Railway Bridge for Lemon - Abbasiya - Tora

runs in southern area of grater Cairo region [Track Improvement]

RW-402-4 Improvement of Tracks 1) Track renewal, 2) New track maintenance machines on Cairo - Aswan

RW-412-4 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (6 stations)

Good intermodal connection & facilities, railway layout/arrangement, warehouse and station office at stations of Imbaba, Beni Suef, Minya, Asyut, Qena and Aswan

IW-2 IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt

connects roads/ railway smoothly, Asyut and Quena ports port improvement, includes waterway, navigation and lock operation improvement.

IW-3 Lock Expansion with Comprehensive Lock Operation Improvement

upgrades the present capacity of Asyut Barrage Lock by expansion and improves operation of other locks.

UPP

ER E

GYP

T

IW-4 Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Asyut

aims to dredging for safe navigability preventing from sedimentation (width 40m x dredging depth 2m x200km).

RD-321 El Ain El Sokhna - Zafarana Road Northern side of Red Sea coastline, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RED

SEA

RD-322 Safaga Baranis Halayeb Road Southern side of Read Sea coastline, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RD-324 Eldaba Albetrol Road connects from Fayoum to Mediterranean sea, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-325 ALbetrol Beni Mazar Road connects RD-324 to Fayoum, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

EAST

-WES

T

RD-994 Fayoum-Beni Suef Bypass connects from Fayoum to Nile east side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]


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RD-995 Wasta Bridge Connection connects from Fayoum to Nile east side, 2-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-997 Helwan-Beni Suef Bridge connects from Fayoum to Nile east side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Bridge]

RD-314 Zafarana Elkoraymat Road (Expressway)

creates expressway connection from Fayoum, Helwan to Red Sea (Zafarana), 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

RD-305 Bahriya Siwa Road connects from Siwa to Nile river for west section, 2-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-306 Bahriya Minya Road connects from Siwa to Nile river for east section, 2-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-996 Minya Bridge cross the Nile river [New Bridge]

RD-303 Upper Egypt East Desert Red Sea Road

connects from Asyut to Red Sea (Safaga), 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-329 Farafra Malwa Road connects from Farafra to Nile river, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-330 El-Dakhla Assyuit Road connects from Dakhla to Nile river, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

RD-226 Qena - Safaga Road connects from Qena to Safaga for under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

RW-303 Single Tracking for Luxor - Hurghada [Electrificated]

for tourists from Hurghada to Luxor to save travel time, max.150kph, [New Rail Line]

RW-409 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Safaga

for local passenger and cargo traffic connected to red sea and Quena and Luxur [Rehabilitation]

RW-408 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Kharga

for passenger, even the paralleled cargo line from Kharga to Qena are existed [Track Improvement]

RD-313-2 Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) South part from Aswan

connects from Aswan to Abou Sembel, RW-313-1 in desert, 6-lanes, 100kh/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

SUEZ

CAN

AL

DEV

ELO

PMEN

T

RD-317 Ismailia Suez Road (Expressway)

connects from Suez to Ismailia at west side of Suez canal, 6-lanes, 100km/h, connects to RD-308 (upgrade to Expressway from Ismailia to Port Said) [Upgrade to Expressway] Note: Railway projects related this corridor are RW-200 (west side, signal improvement (on-going) and RW-410 (east side, railway rehabilitation)

P-1 Passenger Intermodal Facilities 50 locations nationwide

NAT

ION

- W

IDE

L-2 Logistics Centers including improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4 stations)

Logistics Centers 50 locations nationwide and Good intermodal connection & facilities, railway layout/arrangement, warehouse and station office at Cairo-Damietta (Mansura, Damietta), Cairo-Ismailia-Port said (Tel el Kebir, Port Said)

SW-1 Egyptian Transport Center (ETC)

has the function of transport related database, planning tools and model development and maintenance, training of transport planner, development of traffic accident database and as National Road Traffic Safety Board

SW-2 Establishment of Dedicated Transport Fund

researches and arranges the matter of subsidy/carbon tax/envi. incentive tax or subsidy for future earmarked road funds

SW-3 Development of road function based design and capacity standards

researches and designs effective visible road signs and pavement markings for preventing road accidents in night time and fogging, also rearranged highway standards.

SW-4 Road safety initiative (3E; Engineer, Education and Enforcement)

examines historical traffic accident data and conducts safety audit, then takes effective countermeasures (hard and soft) for reducing traffic accidents.

SW-5 Railway Safety Initiative modernization of railway crossing to automatic system (696, half of crossings in Egypt are improved by ENR funds till 2017) and continued improvement.

SW-6 Introduction of State of the art railway systems and control

apply modern railway signal control system and improvement of workshop facilities.

SOFT

WAR

E

SW-7 Development of IWT management database and Installation of IWT Navigation Information System

provides guaranteed navigation information to any IWT users for waterways, fleets, navigation aids and RIS, and IWT management database including these improvement and development


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HW-1

Strengthening MOT's responsibility covering all transport modes for integrated multimodal transport system and logistics

includes civil aviation, tourism and the Suez Canal

HW-2 Training in modern traffic management and control systems

targets to GARBLT officers to regulate the traffic management on roads (traffic safety control and warning system, traffic information provision, facilities).

HW-3 Training in modern road maintenance techniques

targets to GARBLT officers for improving overload control and asset (roads and bridges) management

HW-4 Extension of transformation plan targets to extension of current support to ENR officers capacity development for proper operation and marketing for passenger and freight transport.

HU

MAN

WAR

E

HW-5 Extension of NICHE program

targets to extension of current support to RTA officers capacity development , especially RTA management and operation capacities and strengthening of marketing and logistics knowledge and skill, including utilization of database.

4.3. SPECIAL INTEREST PROJECTS

4.3.1. The Intermodal Transport Corridor

The Intermodal Transport Corridor (ITC) basic alignment is schematized in Figure 4.3.1.

Figure 4.3.1 The proposed Intermodal Transport Corridor

The different development components of the ITC are respectively

Upgrading (double track electrified) of the Alexandria – Cairo Railway connection, dedicated to freight transport, ensuring a direct connection to the VAL Center

Development of the VAL Center Development of a new double track electrified railway connection to Sokhna port Upgrading (double track electrified) of the existing tracks (if any) between the VAL Center and the

new connection to Sokhna port Outer Ring Road (south section) to link the bonded road transport center (BRTC) to the VAL Center

and link the Upper Egypt corridor to the ITC railway corridor (via the VAL Center)

The main objectives of the Intermodal Transport Corridor (ITC) project are:

Development of the value added logistics center in 6th of October (VAL Center)


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Development of southern outer ring road linking 10th of Ramadan bonded road transport center (BRTC) to the VAL Center and link the Upper Egypt corridor to the main maritime gateways.

Development of railway container traffic between the VAL Center and Alexandria port, focusing EU trade which will in time be concentrated on the Alexandria – Genua – Koper motorway of the Sea (EU Project ongoing)

Development of railway container traffic between VAL Center and Ain Soukhna port (Red Sea) where DW Ports has commenced the extension of its container terminal to accommodate 2.5 million TEU

The conceptual thinking behind the ITC corridor development proposal:

Concentration of EU – Egypt trade traffic in Alexandria port to benefit from the plan to create the EU-Egypt motorway of the sea

Alleviate traffic on the highly populated and agricultural Nile delta as traffic to Europe will gradually shift from Damietta and Port Said. Both ports could in time be integrated into a single VAL service port to deal with container traffic will continue to transit via this logistics platform and will service Eastern Mediterranean countries, Turkey and the Black Sea countries.

Promote Ain Soukhna port as transit point for EU – Asia traffic on the round the world services, shifting a number of port calls from Damietta / Port Said to Soukhna. The railway connection will be acting as land bridge ;

Link Upper Egypt to the two key maritime gateways ; Create new transport activity in Egypt, such as VAL services, 3rd and 4th party logistics services,

etc. along the corridor, which will create new employment and generate revenues for the country.

Key additional benefits that can be associated with the project include but are not limited to:

Alleviation of congestion in the highly populated and agricultural area of the Nile Delta Reducing the need for high cost investments in IWT, road and railway infrastructure to efficiently

link Damietta and Port Said with the major consumption and production centers in Egypt Stimulate a shift from road to rail (environment) and reduce road congestion in the Cairo region

and on the Alexandria – Cairo roads (safety) Integrate the planned IWT freight traffic on Upper Nile Corridor with the railway corridor of ITC Increase the value of the Egyptian railway sector by giving it a high-profile role in modern logistics Contribute to a better distribution of population by stimulating employment outside the traditional

centers Develop efficient freight transport in an area of low population density, reducing the existing

pressure on the highly populated areas of Egypt Develop economic activity in remote areas via the utilization of secondary linkages via the Upper

Delta corridor that has 2 usable branches to the Red Sea area

In the long-term vision, this corridor can generate a better and more logical freight traffic flow and increase the role of Egypt in global traffic. It will on the one hand concentrate EU traffic on the ITC corridor and maintain / increase the Damietta Port Said port area as principal transit hub that links Eastern Europe, Turkey and the Black Sea with the maritime pendulum services (container traffic). The geographical split of European traffic transiting via or originating from Egypt will also be beneficial for Egypt at the same time it will have direct environmental benefits. The ITC corridor will further create a new economic corridor where in addition to VAL and modern logistics services, affiliated high value economic activity becomes possible (computer and car assembly, research centers, technology and other theme parks (such as Design City and Smart Village).

The concept vision for the Egyptian Intermodal Transport Corridor could be compared with the European Bleu Banana corridor, the name for the European area of economic concentration, presented in Figure 4.3.2.


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Source: Bleu Plan Notes, nr 14, March 2010

Figure 4.3.2 The Bleu Banana

The growing concentration of container traffic in the ports of Gioia Tauro (Italy) and Masaxllok (Malta), located in the center of the Mediterranean region, is related to its short distance from the European “bleu banana”, the principal area of economic and demographic concentration in Europe.

But striving towards the creation of a bleu banana-like corridor is only a (small) part of the reasons for implementing the ITC project. Other more important reasons are because of the dramatic and rapid changes the maritime sector in the Mediterranean is undergoing. For container transport, the decision for calling particular ports in the MEDA region will be made by few major global liner companies. The “pendulum routes”, operating predominantly between the Far East, Northern Europe and North America, are the most visible component in maritime traffic in the Mediterranean zone and are influencing if not determining the hub and spoke feeder system in the region.

The continuously growing size of the container vessels (18,000 TEU already on order) has a direct consequence that the operating cost, in particular the fuel cost, becomes a decisive factor and the shortest route principle a guiding strategy. Because of the additional nautical miles to cover for reaching Alexandria port compared to Port Said, the further concentration will make it difficult for Alexandria to become a notable part of future pendulum routes. On the contrary, the attractiveness for Port Said / Damietta and of Ain Soukhna is evident as they are both exactly on the alignment of these routes. Linking Alexandria via a intermodal logistics corridor with Ain Soukhna is the solution to link Alexandria to the future pendulum routes and establish and efficient freight transport and logistics system that serves the European markets at the same time as it increases the competitiveness of the Egyptian transport sector, making it therewith a future partner in European logistics

4.3.2. The Egyptian Transport Center (ETC)

Sustainable passenger and freight transport in Egypt, as proposed in the CREATS and MiNTS studies, requires the development of an intermodal transport system which, to represent a true contribution to the national economy, requires the capacity of providing contract logistics services; specialized logistics service providers that offer cost-efficient and customer-tailored logistics solutions that meet the specific needs such as:

Managing components for final assembly ; Kitting and customizing products for different markets; Managing warehouses including return logistics (in particular for consumer goods); Management and supply of time-critical spare parts; or Management of the entire end-to-end supply chain.


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Any action towards developing such value added services as part of a modern Egyptian transport system can only be sustainable if infrastructure developments are accompanied / complemented by an efficient transport management and control system that ensures the efficient functioning of the transport system and of its many divisions / services, not only in line with costumer expectations but also and increasingly in accordance with environmental requirements and international rules and regulations.

The most common and wide-spread application of modern transport management are the transport planning tools. In their generic format, these are relatively simple tools that assist and facilitate decision-making processes related to transport infrastructure investments. With the advancements in technology, new planning and management tools are applied, commonly with internet based communication and using GIS technology to optimize representation and geographic localisation/identification. The latest trend in transport system management is to integrate transport planning, management, and control tools into a centralised platform to govern the different aspects of the national transport system.

Similar to many other countries, the Egyptian Ministry of Transport does not have until now a centralized data bank, only data “centres” sponsored by the sectors and these have evolved according to varying quality standards and along differing formats. There also is no central authority responsible for a unified approach to transport planning; nor does there exists a single, nationwide transport model until the advent of MiNTS. A crucial need exists for setting up an Egyptian Transportation Centre (ETC) that can assume responsibility of the implementation of MiNTS as well as of the preservation of the valuable transport policy and planning databases that were collected for CREATS and MiNTS.

The long-term objective of such centre is the realization of integrated transport planning across all modes and services, supported by “cutting edge” methodologies and state-of-the-art technology through the ETC, a centre of excellence that operates without technical support from external resources.

The ETC will become a research and technical centre specialized in post-graduate and tailor-made research, policy research, and technical advisory services in the fields of transportation planning, urban systems, transportation policies, and infrastructure management. The ETC will therewith play a pivotal role in the development of the Egyptian Transport Management and Control Centre which in time will be(come) the key instrument for traffic management and control as well as infrastructure development and maintenance for the government of Egypt.


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CHAPTER 5: METHODOLOGY

5.1. KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE APPLIED METHODOLOGY

The multi criteria approach is questioned by some experts who argue that using this type of analysis is simply a reaction against the failing of the CBA technique to incorporate intangible items in the actual calculations.

Indeed, the CBA provides detailed information on the many monetary and quantifiable aspects of proposed investments but it (could) overlook(s) an equally wide range of non-quantifiable and / or intangible elements that are equally and sometimes even more relevant in the political decision-making processes. For that reason, an increasing number of experts as does the European Commission expand the classic CBA analysis with a multi-criteria evaluation to compare the various projects against a predefined set of objectives to determine the validity and priority of each project.

The main point of discussion is the use of a weighting system associated with the evaluation criteria. While the advocates of MCA argue that this not only ensures that each criterion is given a suitable and equitable evaluation but also that different projects are measured against one or more specific criteria via sensitivity testing, thus assessing the level to which any particular project contributes in achieving (a) specific objective(s). The MCA approach thus permits that large-scale public investments are guided by costs and (long-term) economic and financial benefits, but not exclusively defined by it. The critics of MCA prefer the exclusive application of the economic rationale in which the preference for one or another project is consistent with maximizing utility that is exclusively defined by economic and financial conditions. They argue that with the economic approach, (public) investments are decided solely upon the conditioned evaluation cycle where input generates a result and given a certain input available, a certain result can be expected. This contrary to the MCA approach where the risk exists to “prefer” certain decision-factors over others through the allocation of weights and that such creative thinking generates itself decisive information.

But considering the diversity in project characteristics, it is imperative that the applied analytical method guarantees that the combination of retained projects and the priority and sequence of implementation will ensure that the contribution of each individual project is maximized without exclusively focusing on the development of (new) infrastructure. The information obtained from a Multi Criteria Analysis will achieve just that and will provide decision-makers with the necessary information to formulate a reasoned decision under consensus conditions for all types of projects, rather than evaluating the creation of again new infrastructure according to exclusively financial and economic rationales which would be obtained when considering sector rehabilitation evaluating these projects using classic CBA.

The proposed project evaluation methodology assesses and ranks the proposed projects on the basis of a range of evaluation indicators and incorporates sensibility testing to appreciate the contribution of each project to achieving specific policy objectives, and this according to different strategies. The key features of the proposed evaluation method are:

The use of objectively verifiable indicators to guarantee an evaluation that reduces the risk of data manipulation thanks to the potential to verify the validity of the variables;.

The allocation of weights to evaluation criteria based upon a range of variables considered realistic and in line with socio-economic and political policy priorities that guarantees that those projects considered most "important" are given a suitable and equitable evaluation; and


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Sensitivity testing of the different alternatives to assess the level to which any particular alternative contributes to the achievement of specific objectives and to identify the true boundaries that projects contribute to improving current situation.

Considering that a comprehensive financial and economic evaluation of the projects will be conducted, key financial and economic criteria are excluded from the multi-criteria analysis. The financial and economic viability of projects will be subjected to a traditional cost benefit analysis (CBA) which is particularly appropriate for this type of assessments.

Rather than focusing on the costs and benefits of the individual projects and therewith evaluate and rank them solely on tangible and quantifiable data, the applied methodology concentrates on the relationship between the decision criteria, the weighting system and the project’s strategic objectives.

5.2. THE OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE INDICATORS

The objectively verifiable indicators (OVI) used in the multi-criteria evaluation are summarized in Table 5.2.1 and briefly explained hereafter.

5.2.1. Operational Indicators

The operational indicators include (1) person/freight demand, (2) supply utilization, (3) cargo transport facilitation and (4) priority corridor relation. The numeric values are translated into an appreciative value according to following approach:

Demand is related to the hierarchy of services with the perspective of year 2027 demand. The passenger and transported ton values of the model are translated into person and ton movements using (1) number of passengers her hour per direction, adjusted with (2) cargo transport volume per day (expressed in units of 10,000 tonnes per day).

Supply utilization evaluates the ability of supply to match demand. Cargo transport facilitation assesses whether the recommended project contributes to efficiently moving cargo from origin to destination. The evaluation is based upon the percentage of trucks in total traffic.

The relationship to the priority corridor is quantified via a Boolean value (yes/no) that specifies whether the project is located on the priority corridor, interconnects with the corridor, or has no relationship with / attachment to the priority corridor.

5.2.2. Performance Indicators

Performance indicators are strategic qualitative assessments of the effects of the projects. They particularly refer to elements that increase the performance of the Egyptian transport system without necessarily relating to the capacity of transport infrastructure. The criteria used are (1) transport system improvement (2) enhanced market mechanisms, (3) knowledge based management or more generally expertise building, and (4) information and communication technology development or improvement and, finally (5) equipment modernization

Table 5.2.1 The MiNTS OVI


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Transport system improvements relate to the contribution of projects in improving the structure of the transport system as a whole to allow either more efficient operations or ensuring better management of traffic.

Enhanced market mechanisms refer to the contribution of the project in increasing the level of commercialization and competitiveness of Egyptian transport service providers. Market mechanisms include in particular initiatives that reduce transport time and costs or increase efficiency and revenues. As for the transport system improvement, these mechanisms can be infrastructure related but also deal with software or expertise building initiatives.

Knowledge based management refers to the introduction of methods and techniques that improve the management, monitoring, and evaluation of transport performance, focusing technology applications and expertise building that lead to transport efficiency improvements and better system management.

ICT and equipment modernization are self-explanatory indicators. It is common knowledge that investments in software and expertise building are factually contributing to improved transport.

5.2.3. Implementation Indicators

Implementation indicators assist to evaluate the overall potential that a recommended project can be realized on the basis of its complexity and maturity. Several sub-indicators are used to determine the implementation potential of the recommended projects. Projects that have a high score can be implemented much earlier than projects with a lower score.

Improved governance of the public sector reflects the contribution of projects to enhance public governance of the transport system. These enhancements can generally be achieved either via reducing the fragmentation of decision-making processes, limiting the direct involvement of various governmental and semi-governmental entities in the functioning of the transport system. But enhancements are also possible by promoting efficient centralization of administrative procedures with a reduction of manual control procedures or also of more accurate and targeted control of the transport system functioning and its structural characteristics, using advanced technology and techniques applied by specialists and technocrats rather than personnel from the public administration.

The legal framework assesses the level of maturity of a project. While some projects require no specific decisions at the regulatory level, others can only be implemented if laws or regulations are changed. These legal requirements could hinder the short-term implementation potential of projects or could contribute to making its realization more complex.

Stakeholder involvement refers to the number of partners involved in the project (decision or execution) which is a strong indicator of the complexity of its implementation. Some projects only need the participation of one public authority while others can only be implemented after approval by and participation of a range of governmental bodies. The more stakeholders involved, the more the implementation potential reduces.

Private sector involvement assesses the level of private sector participation in the project. The level of private involvement is an interesting indicator for the economic and financial value of the project. Private sector involvement can vary in form and structure based upon concrete agreement between the private company and government on operational targets and budgets. Of course, there are projects which are not suited for private sector involvement and remain therefore fully public investments.

Development cost is an important indicator for the (short-term) implementation possibility of projects. The development cost for infrastructure projects is higher than the cost of “soft” projects, the former relating to the cost per kilometer of new infrastructure and the numbers of people moved and the latter relates to the total project investment and expected direct impacts (e.g., reductions in operating cost or critical need of the project before another can be started). The development cost of course is closely related to the other criteria in the implementation potential indicator. The volume of the investment cost can facilitate a decision, but it is not a deciding factor. If political will and stakeholder involvement is high, an expensive project could be


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more easily decided than a “cheap soft” project which has could be confronted with a high level of opposition.

5.2.4. System Sustainability Indicators

The last set of indicators relates to environmental, safety and the generation of socio-economic benefits that not always can be calculated / quantified.

The environmental criterion use environmental assessments conducted in the context of the MiNTS study. They include an assessment of the need for an Environmental Impact Study, the need for resettlement, the reduction of CO2 or the contribution to achieving a modal shift.

The criterion dealing with safety appreciates to what level candidate projects contribute to improving the safety of traffic, reflected in the reduction of road accidents, speed limitations and congestion reduction, protection of pedestrians and weaker traffic infrastructure users, etc…

The third criterion is the first of several socio-economic indicators, not always quantifiable, that assesses the contribution of the project to (regional) job creation with a clear preference for projects that show a clear potential to generate long-term employment.

A fourth criterion appreciates the possible impact of projects on regional economic performance, with projects having a concrete contribution to economic growth in the region.

The last, also a socio-economic indicator, is the level a project contributes to link peripheral regions in Egypt to the main urban and economic centers, therewith increasing the potential of these regions to increase living standards and economic activity.

The evaluation of environmental benefits is a complex process and is normally done via Environmental Impact Studies (EIS), either condensed or extended versions. Considering that the MCA approach does not emphasizes one single perspective but proposes a balanced vision that emerges out of a range of indicators, the appreciation of the environmental effects was limited to a number of basic quantifiable indicators, namely:

The necessity of an EIS as part of the decision process; Classification of the project according to the environmental sensibility, both according to the

international categorization and the JICA’s ranking Resettlement needs; CO2 Reduction; and Modal Shift to non-road transport modes.

5.3. EVALUATION INDICATORS AND POLITICAL STRATEGY

The objective of using proposed indicators is to ensure that the evaluation and prioritization of the proposed projects/programs contributes to the improvement of identified problems and allocate priority to actions not only at the level of infrastructure creation/rehabilitation but also focuses the enhancement of software and humanware aspects. In addition to the traditional performance indicators, the applied criteria reflect specific hardware, software, or humanware issues that contribute to the overall quality of the future transport network.

The priority and urgency of the recommended projects is defined by their concrete contribution to resolving or improving identified problems in the Egyptian transport sector without necessarily being a high-profile infrastructure development project. But truly assessing that contribution requires the application of a weighting system via which the various projects are investigated from different angles that transcend the economic and financial perception and also consider other political priorities, not always quantifiable. From that perspective, the CBA is too limited and a MCA is necessary.


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But it is important to ensure that all strategic dimensions can be incorporated in the MCA. During the MiNTS project, 12 strategies have been agreed which are respectively:

Integrated and Harmonized Transport Modes; Increase of Non-Road Freight Services; Promoting of Private Sector Participation; Secure and Safety Transport Modes; Good governance of MOT for an Integrated Transport System; International Gateway Strengthening; Integrated Passenger Transport Services; Toll road network provision; Development of Human Resources; Connection to the New Development Zones; Modern Transport Techniques; and Minimize Environmental Negative Impacts.

Table 5.3.1 Modal Split for freight transport

Mode Sub mode ‘000 Tonnes %Total Million Tkm %Total Light Truck 213.5 17.7 22.4 10.6 Medium Truck 216.2 18.0 29.7 14.0 Heavy Truck 757.5 62.9 152.2 71.9

Road

Subtotal 1,187.2 98.6 204.3 96.6 Non Road

Rail 11.1 0.9 3.9 1.8

Inland Waterway 6.0 0.5 3.5 1.6 Subtotal 17.1 1.4 7.4 3.4 Total 1,204.3 100.0 211.7 100.0

The objectives of the Egyptian authorities, expressed among other ways via the execution of the MiNTS study, is to develop an integrated, multimodal transport master plan over a staged planning horizon to year 2027 in which high-priority projects are identified within a master plan framework. A parallel objective is to implement an effective and productive technology transfer program with Egyptian counterparts so that the dependence of external (foreign) expertise can be reduced and the sector’s future fully decided by that Egyptian people. Accentuating the multimodal / intermodal dimension of the master plan is particularly relevant considering the need for integration and the transfer of traffic from the over-dominant road transport mode to alternative modes.

The overall relevance of the evaluation indicators for the above strategies is summarized in Table 5.3.2.


5-6

Table 5.3.2 Relationship assessment

OI‐1 OI‐2 OI‐3 OI‐4 PI‐1 PI‐2 PI‐3 PI‐4 PI‐5 II‐1 II‐2 II‐3 II‐4 II‐5 SSI‐1 SSI‐2 SSI‐3 SSI‐4 SSI‐5

1Integrated and Harmonized Transport

Modes

Achieving integration and harmony among

different modes of transport to efficiently meet

the increasing demand.✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

2 Increase of Non‐Road Freight ServicesIncrease the share of railway, and Inland

waterway in freight transport. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

3 Promoting of Private Sector Strengthening the private sector role ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

4 Secure and Safety Transport ModesAchieving better security and safety levels

within transportation means. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

5Good governance of MOT for

Integrated Transport System

Restructure of relevant authorities relating to

Ministry of Transport to achieve better

administrative performance.✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

6 International Gateway StrengtheningDeveloping maritime ports and raising their

competitiveness. ✓ ✓ ✓

7Integrated Passenger Transport

Services

Pay more attention to upgrade passenger

interchange terminals between inter‐city and

intra‐city movement.✓

8 Toll road network provision

Expand the road toll network to increase

network technical standards and safety

considerations, and get revenue for ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

9 Development of Human Resources Training the staff of transport sectors ✓ ✓ ✓

10Connection to the New Development

Zones

Connecting the new development zones by

suitable transport networks and modes ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

11 Modern Transport Technique

Enhance and introduce modern transport

techniques such as logistic centers, dry ports,

cargo depots, multimodal transportation, ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

12Minimize Environmental Negative

Impacts

Minimize environment negative impacts: air

pollution, sea and river pollution, noise

pollution, visual pollution✓ ✓

Number of Strategies which has relationship to

each indicator [A]4 2 2 4 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 4 3 3 3

Sub‐Total of strategies for Each category [B]

New Proposed Weighting

for Category12 14 12 15

Gatew

ay Cen

ter

Connectivity

Reg

ional Cen

ter

Connectivity

Stakeh

older

Invo

lvem

ent

Private sector

potential

Dev

elopmen

t Cost

Environmen

tal

Impact

Tran

sport Safety

Job creation

Enhan

ced M

arket

Mechan

isms

Knowledge

Based

Man

agem

ent

ICT dev

elopmen

t /

improvemen

t

Equipmen

t modernization

Improved

Governan

ce (public sector)

Reg

ulatory

Fram

ework

Operational (OI) Performance (PI) Implementation (II) System Sustainability (SSI)

Perso

n Dem

and /

Freigh

t Dem

and

Supply Utilization

Cargo

Transport

Facilitation

Relation to priority

corridor

System

improvemen

t

The detailed results of the consistency evaluation of the evaluation criteria as compared to the retained strategic policy objectives are summarized in Table 5.3.3.


5-7

Tabl

e 5.

3.3

Det

aile

d ev

alua

tion

of re

latio

nshi

p be

twee

n st

rate

gic

obje

ctiv

es a

nd e

valu

atio

n cr

iteria

OI‐1

OI‐2

OI‐3

OI‐4

PI‐1

PI‐2

PI‐3

PI‐4

PI‐5

II‐1

II‐2

II‐3

II‐4

II‐5

SSI‐1

SSI‐2

SSI‐3

SSI‐4

SSI‐5

100,0%

40,0%

20,0%

25,0%

15,0%

40,0%

15,0%

20,0%

10,0%

15,0%

10,0%

10,0%

30,0%

10,0%

40,0%

45,0%

15,0%

5,0%

20,0%

15,0%

10,0%

5,0%

6,3%

3,8%

10,0%

3,8%

5,0%

2,5%

3,8%

2,5%

2,5%

7,5%

2,5%

10,0%

11,3%

3,8%

1,3%

5,0%

3,8%

100,0%

1Integrated and Harm

onized Transport

Modes

Achieving integration and harm

ony among different modes of

transport to efficiently meet the increasing demand.

33

31

23

11

10

11

21

10

21

128

2Increase of Non‐Road Freight Services

Increase the share of railway, and Inland w

aterw

ay in freight

transport.

23

21

12

11

20

11

23

22

11

230

3Promoting of Private Sector

Strengthening the private sector role

11

22

22

12

11

11

32

22

21

130

4Secure and Safety Transport M

odes

Achieving better security and safety levels within transportation

means.

00

10

21

23

31

22

02

13

10

024

5Good governance of MOT for Integrated

Transport System

Restructure of relevant authorities relating to M

inistry of Transport to

achieve better administrative perform

ance.

01

21

32

11

03

33

01

11

10

024

6International Gateway Strengthening

Developing m

aritime ports and raising their competitiveness.

12

22

21

11

20

12

32

10

12

026

7Integrated Passenger Transport Services

Pay more attention to upgrade passenger interchange term

inals

betw

een inter‐city and intra‐city movement.

22

00

22

21

11

12

21

00

10

222

8Toll road network provision

Expand the road toll netw

ork to increase netw

ork technical standards

and safety considerations, and get revenue for maintenance and

upgrading taken into account the necessity of free of charge

alternative netw

ork for social dim

ension.

30

12

11

11

10

12

32

11

12

125

9Development of Human Resources

Training the staff of transport sectors

01

10

21

32

11

01

10

02

20

018

10Connection to the New Development

Zones

Connecting the new development zones by suitable transport

netw

orks and m

odes

11

12

12

00

11

21

22

11

20

223

11Modern Transport Technique

Enhance and introduce m

odern transport techniques such as logistic

centers, dry ports, cargo depots, multim

odal transportation, unified

ticket, IT m

eans

11

20

31

13

20

11

31

10

20

023

12Minimize Environmental Negative Impacts

Minim

ize environment negative impacts: air pollution, sea and river

pollution, noise pollution, visual pollution

01

10

20

11

10

11

11

31

10

016

Total number of score how much relationship to each

indicator [A]

14

16

18

11

23

18

15

17

16

815

18

22

18

14

13

17

79

289

Sub‐Total of strategies for Each category [B]

289

(Sub‐total/Total)

100%

Sub‐category W

eighting in a Category [A]/[B]

23,7%

27,1%

30,5%

18,6%

25,8%

20,2%

16,9%

19,1%

18,0%

9,9%

18,5%

22,2%

27,2%

22,2%

23,3%

21,7%

28,3%

11,7%

15,0%

Sub‐category W

eighting

4,8%

5,5%

6,2%

3,8%

8,0%

6,2%

5,2%

5,9%

5,5%

2,8%

5,2%

6,2%

7,6%

6,2%

4,8%

4,5%

5,9%

2,4%

3,1%

100,0%

7,5%

3,8%

3,8%

7,5%

9,4%

5,7%

3,8%

3,8%

3,8%

3,8%

5,7%

5,7%

5,7%

1,9%

3,8%

7,5%

5,7%

5,7%

5,7%

100,0%

25,0%

25,0%

25,0%

Person Demand /

Freight Demand

Supply Utilization

Cargo Transport

Facilitation

Regional Center

Connectivity

Private sector

potential

Development Cost

Environmental

Impact

Transport Safety

Operational (OI)

Stakeholder

Involvement

System Sustainability (SSI)

Equipment

modernization


corridor

Improved

Governance

(public sector)

Perform

ance (PI)

Implementation (II)

Sub‐category W

eighting

25,0%

Total

New Proposed W

eighting

for Category

20,8%

89

81

Gateway Center

Connectivity

20,4%

30,8%

28,0%

Job creation

60

Regulatory

Framework

Updated before Meeting with MOT

Strategy

Original % of Indicator

(proposed in Steering Committee Dec, 2011)

59

System improvement

Enhanced Market

Mechanisms

Knowledge Based

Management

ICT development /

improvement


5-8

The influence and importance of each strategy as compared to the applied weighting factor was investigated in more detail by applying a ranking form “0” to “3” that measures the strength of the relationship between strategy and evaluation indicator. As can be concluded from the Table 5.3.4, there is a sufficiently strong relationship between the strategic policy objectives for the transport sector reflected in above-listed 12 strategies and the evaluation indicators that are used in the multi-criteria analysis. On average, most parameters individually score above 50% relevance if a relevant relationship was identified between strategy and indicator (see above Table 5.3.1).

Table 5.3.4 Strategy compliance assessment summary

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Integrated and Harmonized Transport Modes

Increase of Non‐Road Freight Services

Promoting of Private Sector

Secure and Safety Transport Modes

Good governance of MOT for Integrated Transport System

International Gateway Strengthening

Integrated Passenger Transport Services

Toll road network provision

Development of Human Resources

Connection to the New Development Zones

Modern Transport Technique

Minimize Environmental Negative Impacts

12

34

56

78

910

1112

Balancing of Strategy (Nos. of Score for each Strategy)

The appreciation of the relationship between strategic objectives and evaluation indicators has been subject to various modifications that emerged from discussions that the JICA expert team had with various representatives from the Egyptian Ministry of Transport and the different transport sub-sectors. The evolution of the appreciations as they emerged after the different discussions is summarized in エラー! 参照元が見つかりません。.

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

Environmental Impact

Person Demand

/ Freight Dem

and

System im

provement

Development Cost

Stakeholder Involvement

Cargo Transport Facilitation

Supply Utilization

Knowledge Based Management

Gateway Center Connectivity

Relation to priority corridor

Enhanced Market Mechanisms

Equipment modernization

Transport Safety

Regional Center Connectivity

ICT development / improvement

Improved Governance

(public sector)

Regulatory Framew

ork

Private sector potential

Job creation

SSI‐1 OI‐1 PI‐1 II‐5 II‐3 OI‐3 OI‐2 PI‐3 SSI‐4 OI‐4 PI‐2 PI‐5 SSI‐2 SSI‐5 PI‐4 II‐1 II‐2 II‐4 SSI‐3

Original Update‐1 Update‐2

Figure 5.3.1 Evolution of consistency appreciation


5-9

As can be concluded from Figure 5.3.1, the initial focus on some key indicators such as environment, demand, or system improvement and related costs (the first indicators in above figure) have shifted towards elements that focus the participation of the private sector, governance and operational efficiency.

Sorting the updated ranking according to the highest importance, as done in Figure 5.3.2, clearly shows this shift in priority.

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

System

improvem

ent


Develop

men

t Cost

Stakeh

olde

r Involvem

ent


Enhanced

Market Mechanism

s

ICT de

velopm

ent / improvem

ent

Job creatio

n

Equipm

ent mod

ernizatio

n

Supp

ly Utilization

Regulatory Framew

ork

Know

ledge Based Managem

ent

Environm

ental Impact

Person

Dem

and / Freight Dem

and

Transport Safety


corrido

r

Region

al Cen

ter C

onne

ctivity

Improved

Governance…

Gatew

ay Cen

ter C

onne

ctivity

PI‐1 II‐4 II‐5 II‐3 OI‐3 PI‐2 PI‐4 SSI‐3 PI‐5 OI‐2 II‐2 PI‐3 SSI‐1 OI‐1 SSI‐2 OI‐4 SSI‐5 II‐1 SSI‐4

Original Update‐1 Update‐2

Figure 5.3.2 Sorted weight attribution

The attribution of a higher weight to the new criteria is consistent with the government policy of increasing sector efficiency, stimulate private sector participation, and improve sector governance (stakeholder involvement, facilitation and improved market mechanisms), while environmental issues or actual demand are less relevant when deciding on particular investments. Furthermore, one can observe a more balanced distribution of weights over the different OVI which undoubtedly improves the quality of the MCA.

The weights finally used to assess the priority of the proposed projects are summarized in Table 5.3.5.

Table 5.3.5 Final weight system for MCA

CategoryNos_

Cat

Nos_S

ubC

Weight in

Categoty

Weight in

Sub-

categoty

WeightNos_

Cat

Nos_S

ubC

Weight in

Categoty

Weight in

Sub-

categoty

WeightWeight in

Categoty

Weight in

Sub-

categoty

WeightWeight in

Categoty

Weight in

Sub-

categoty

WeightWeight in

Categoty

Weight in

Sub-

categoty

WeightWeight in

Categoty

Weight in

Sub-

categoty

Weight

4 4 0,25 0,25 0,06 4 4 0,20 0,24 0,05 0,55 0,24 0,13 0,15 0,24 0,04 0,15 0,24 0,04 0,15 0,24 0,04

4 4 0,25 0,25 0,06 4 4 0,20 0,27 0,06 0,55 0,27 0,15 0,15 0,27 0,04 0,15 0,27 0,04 0,15 0,27 0,04

4 4 0,25 0,25 0,06 4 4 0,20 0,31 0,06 0,55 0,31 0,17 0,15 0,31 0,05 0,15 0,31 0,05 0,15 0,31 0,05

4 4 0,25 0,25 0,06 4 4 0,20 0,19 0,04 0,55 0,19 0,10 0,15 0,19 0,03 0,15 0,19 0,03 0,15 0,19 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,31 0,26 0,08 0,15 0,26 0,04 0,55 0,26 0,14 0,15 0,26 0,04 0,15 0,26 0,04

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,31 0,20 0,06 0,15 0,20 0,03 0,55 0,20 0,11 0,15 0,20 0,03 0,15 0,20 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,31 0,17 0,05 0,15 0,17 0,03 0,55 0,17 0,09 0,15 0,17 0,03 0,15 0,17 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,31 0,19 0,06 0,15 0,19 0,03 0,55 0,19 0,11 0,15 0,19 0,03 0,15 0,19 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,31 0,18 0,06 0,15 0,18 0,03 0,55 0,18 0,10 0,15 0,18 0,03 0,15 0,18 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,28 0,10 0,03 0,15 0,10 0,01 0,15 0,10 0,01 0,55 0,10 0,05 0,15 0,10 0,01

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,28 0,19 0,05 0,15 0,19 0,03 0,15 0,19 0,03 0,55 0,19 0,10 0,15 0,19 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,28 0,22 0,06 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,55 0,22 0,12 0,15 0,22 0,03

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,28 0,27 0,08 0,15 0,27 0,04 0,15 0,27 0,04 0,55 0,27 0,15 0,15 0,27 0,04

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,28 0,22 0,06 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,55 0,22 0,12 0,15 0,22 0,03

Environmental Impact 4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,21 0,23 0,05 0,15 0,23 0,03 0,15 0,23 0,03 0,15 0,23 0,03 0,55 0,23 0,13

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,21 0,22 0,05 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,15 0,22 0,03 0,55 0,22 0,12

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,21 0,28 0,06 0,15 0,28 0,04 0,15 0,28 0,04 0,15 0,28 0,04 0,55 0,28 0,16

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,21 0,12 0,02 0,15 0,12 0,02 0,15 0,12 0,02 0,15 0,12 0,02 0,55 0,12 0,06

4 5 0,25 0,20 0,05 4 5 0,21 0,15 0,03 0,15 0,15 0,02 0,15 0,15 0,02 0,15 0,15 0,02 0,55 0,15 0,081,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00

Sensitivity-4

System Sustainability

Tota Envi.l

T ransport Safety

Job creation

Gateway Center Connectivity

Regional Center Connectivity

Implementation (II)

Improved Governance (public sector)

Step-3

Equipment modernization

Regulatory Framework

Stakeholder Involvement


Development Cost

Sensitivity-3Step-2 Sensitivity-1 Sensitivity-2

Sub-category

Operational (OI)

Person Demand / Freight Demand

Supply Utilization


Relation to priority corridor

Performance (PI)

System improvement

Enhanced Market Mechanisms

Knowledge Based Management

ICT development / improvement


5-10

5.4. EVALUATION CRITERIA VALUES

Priority and urgency of the proposed projects are defined by their concrete contribution to resolving or improving identified problems in the Egyptian transport system without necessarily being a high-profile infrastructure development project.

To ensure that the priority of projects is clearly defined, the MiNTS multi-criteria analysis of the proposed pilot projects uses as much as possible objectively verifiable indicators with quantifiable values and only applies an expert appreciation when the quantification of the value is impossible.

The approach therewith acknowledges that improving competitiveness is achieved not only by developing hardware (infrastructure) but needs in addition a program of modernizing equipment and operations (the software component) as well as expertise and innovative concepts (the human factor).

The reference values for each of the indicators are presented in Table 5.4.1.

Table 5.4.1 Evaluation indicators and their reference values

Indicators in MiNTS Scoring Definition

“+ +” [=5] “+” [=4] “N” [=3] “-“ [=2] “- -“ [=1] Operational Indicators (OI)

Person Demand / Freight Demand

> 40.000 pers/hr/dir

30.000 - 40.000 pers/hr/dir

20.000 - 30.000 pers/hr/dir

10.000 - 20.000 pers/hr/dir

<10.000 pers/hr/dir

> 10,000 tonne/day

3,000 - 10,000 tonne/day

1,000 – 3,000 tonne/day

0 – 1,000 tonne/day None

Supply Utilization V/C > 1.5 V/C =1.2 - 1.5 V/C = 1 - 1.2 V/C = 0.8 - 1.0 V/C < 0.8

Cargo Transport Facilitation Share of trucks > 40%

Share of trucks > 30%



Share of trucks <10 %

Relation to priority corridor On corridor Direct link No link XX XX Performance Indicators (PI)

System improvement Certain / High improvement

Possible / some improvement

No contribution (or irrelevant)

XX XX

Enhanced Market Mechanisms Certain / High increase

Possible / some increase

No contribution (or irrelevant)

XX XX

Knowledge Based Management High contribution Contribution No contribution (or irrelevant)

XX XX

ICT development / improvement full ITC project ITC components No contribution (or irrelevant)

not foreseen, would improve system

not foreseen although needed

Equipment modernization HIGH MEDIUM LOW not foreseen, would improve system

not foreseen although needed

Implementation Indicators (II) Improved Governance (public sector) HIGH MEDIUM LOW XX XX

Regulatory Framework Legal framework OK

Changes initiated Irrelevant

Foreseen but not initiated Not foreseen

Stakeholder Involvement Single stakeholder

Single stakeholder, complex

Irrelevant Multiple stakeholders

Multiple stakeholders, complex

Private sector involvement fully private majority private irrelevant (undecided)

minority private fully public

Development Cost < 50000 / KM 50000 - 75000 / KM

75000 - 100000 / KM

100000 - 125000 / KM

> 125000 / KM

SSI - System Sustainability indicators

Environmental Impact

NONE (No EIS required)

LOW (limited EIS needed)

NO IMPACT (irrelevant)

MEDIUM (type of EIS undecided)

HIGH (Full EIS needed)

Category-A (JICA’s C)

Category-Bl (JICA’s B)

Category-C Full EIA (JICA’s A) XX XX

Resettlement: Nothing

A few (< 50 houses)

Some (50 - 100 houses)

Large (100 – 300 houses)

Quite Large (> 300 houses)

CO2 Reduction: Very High

High Low No-impact Worse

Modal Shift to Non-Road: High

Medium Partial Neutral Worse

Transport Safety HIGH SAFETY LOW SAFETY NEUTRAL (irrelevant)

REDUCE SAFETY

DANGEROUS

Job creation HIGH MEDIUM LOW NONE REDUCTION regional economic impact HIGH MEDIUM LOW NONE XX Peripheral regions connectivity HIGH MEDIUM LOW NONE XX


5-11

5.5. MODEL TESTING

The weighting system of the MCA has therefore been tested for consistency and logic prior to the actual multi-criteria analysis. The allocation of weights during the testing phase is arbitrary and does not reflect the weighting system used during the MCA. Following tests were executed to appreciate the consistency of the model:

All weights receive an equal percentage value and weight of “1” (neutral). This test assesses the impact of attributing a qualitative and / or quantitative appreciation but does not take into account any impact of attributing weights. This test is used as benchmark for assessing the results of the other tests.

All criteria receive a weight percentage value that is an equal share of their generic criterion while the weights of the generic criteria remain equal. This test evaluates the impact of the individual criteria on the sample projects, given that the percentage weight differs between criteria.

Each generic criterion receives a variable weight value to reflect a variable importance at the generic level. The weight distribution of the sub-criteria remains unchanged with an equal distribution. This test assesses the impact of attributing different levels of importance to the generic criteria.

Using the generic settings as in Test 3, different weights will now be allocated to the individual criteria ensuring that their distribution adds up to the weight value at the generic level. This final test will, if proven satisfactory, be the starting point for the formal evaluation and ranking process.

In this test, different weights will now be allocated to the individual criteria and the value of the generic criteria will be determined by this weighting. The total weight distribution at the generic and detailed level should be 100%. This final test will, if proven satisfactory, be the starting point for the formal evaluation and ranking process.

Each of the individual tests will lead to a ranking of the sample projects according to attributed weights. The rankings of each individual test will then be combined to generate final ranking of the sample projects. This last test will allow appreciating the overall sustainability of the methodology and give an indication on what can be expected as final ranking of the total set of proposed projects.

The first two tests focused on the consistency at the indicator level, while the thereafter following sensitivity tests focused the robustness of the sub-criteria and the impact on the evaluation criteria of changes at the sub-criteria level.

The different tests proved satisfactory and demonstrated that the model is functioning correctly and criteria are well balanced and appropriate to allow the MCA evaluation of the proposed pilot projects.

Note: The allocation of the weights during the testing phase is totally arbitrary. The final distribution of weights will be given in consultation with sector and Ministry of Transport representatives.


6-1

CHAPTER 6: MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

6.1. MCA BASIC RESULTS

The unedited results of the multi-criteria analysis are provided in Table 6.1.1.

Table 6.1.1 Results of the MCA

Integrated Rank

Run-1 (OI)

Run-2 (PI)

Run-3 (II)

Run-4 (SSI)

CORRIDOR

Ave.

Ste

p1-3

>>>>

>

Tota

l Sco

re

Ran

k

Tota

l Sco

re

Ran

k

Tota

l Sco

re

Ran

k

Tota

l Sco

re

Ran

k

3rd Cairo Alex Expressway 24,3 25 3,6 42 3,5 27 3,5 39 3,3 29 Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes) 8,3 8 4,3 1 3,7 17 3,6 25 3,5 15

3rd Stage Regional Ring Road (Southern Part of Expressway) 37,3 36 3,9 16 3,5 29 3,4 54 3,1 62

Alexandria Bypass 28,7 29 4,0 7 3,5 36 3,6 19 3,0 69 Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria 6,7 6 3,9 8 3,8 12 3,6 21 3,7 8

Railway Link for 6th of October City 3,0 3 3,8 19 3,8 14 4,1 2 3,9 3 Railway Link between Robeki to Helwan 40,0 39 3,2 68 3,5 33 3,8 8 3,1 55 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2stations) 7,0 7 3,7 27 3,9 6 3,7 14 3,7 7

Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan 4,7 4 3,9 17 3,7 16 3,8 5 3,8 5

VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6 th of October City

2,0 2 4,1 4 4,1 3 4,1 1 4,3 2

IWT port for ITC 15,7 15 3,8 20 3,8 11 3,7 13 3,3 33 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria [High/Higher speed Alt-1]

28,3 27 3,3 62 3,6 25 3,2 73 3,8 4

Waterway Improvement Cairo – Alexandria 86,3 86 3,0 81 3,0 96 3,2 79 3,0 70 Multi Purpose Terminal (Containers and General Cargo) at Alexandria Port

47,7 50 3,5 48 3,2 75 3,5 35 3,2 48

Development of Management and Operation for Multi Purpose Terminal in El Dekheila

23,7 24 3,7 29 3,3 59 3,7 12 3,4 18

INTE

RM

OD

AL T

RAN

SPO

RT

CO

RR

IDO

R

Dekheira Port: New Container Terminal 31,3 33 3,7 33 3,3 66 3,6 23 3,4 24 Cairo Alex Agriculture Bypass Kafr El Zayat - Alexandria 22,0 21 3,9 15 3,4 45 3,6 17 3,3 38

Shubra elkhema - Banha Agriculture Road (Expressway) 51,0 53 3,9 12 3,4 42 3,5 43 2,9 94

High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria via Tanta [High/Higher speed Alt-2] 74,3 76 2,8 88 3,4 51 3,0 92 3,3 34

CAI

RO

- A

LEXA

ND

RIA

Improvement of Tracks 61,7 63 3,2 71 3,4 52 3,4 58 3,2 46 Cairo - Tanta Bypass 63,3 65 3,7 26 3,3 68 3,4 53 2,9 91 Zakaziq – Toukh 54,7 57 3,8 21 3,3 64 3,5 38 2,9 84 Rod El Farag Road 54,0 55 3,8 22 3,3 63 3,5 36 3,0 80 Tanta - Kafr El Sheikh 64,7 67 3,6 36 3,3 70 3,4 45 2,9 93 Al Mahalla - Kafr El Sheikh – Damanhour 46,3 46 3,9 9 3,3 54 3,5 32 3,0 76 Desouq Fowa Metobas Road 78,7 80 3,4 56 3,2 80 3,3 69 2,8 99 IN

LAN

D D

ELTA

Imbaba Qalyub Tawfekia Road 54,7 57 3,9 14 3,3 62 3,4 47 2,9 83


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Integrated Rank

Run-1 (OI)

Run-2 (PI)

Run-3 (II)

Run-4 (SSI)

CORRIDOR

Ave.

Ste

p1-3

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Tota

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El-Qanater El-Bagour Shebin El-Koum Tanta Mahalla Matboul Road 46,3 46 3,9 9 3,3 54 3,5 32 3,0 76

Belbeis-Banha-El Bagour-El Khatatba Regional Ring Road

43,3 45 4,1 5 3,5 39 3,4 49 2,9 92

Zaqaziq Sinbellaween Road 56,0 59 3,7 23 3,3 65 3,5 41 2,9 88 Mansoura Talha Dekernes Mataria Road 72,0 74 3,5 45 3,2 74 3,3 64 2,9 96 Qantara Salheya Faqous Abu Kbeir Hehya Zaqaziq Road 46,3 46 3,9 9 3,3 54 3,5 32 3,0 76

Single Tracking for Basion City 83,7 85 3,1 75 3,0 100 3,2 72 2,9 85 Double Tracking for Qalyoub - El Qnater 81,7 82 2,7 93 3,3 61 3,0 94 3,2 51 Triple Tracking for Qalyoub – Benha 41,0 43 3,6 40 3,5 28 3,4 57 3,2 44 Improvement of Track Arrangement for Cairo – Qalyub 33,3 34 3,6 38 3,5 30 3,5 42 3,3 37

Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway)

13,7 14 4,1 3 3,6 24 3,6 20 3,3 27

Railway Link for 10th of Ramadhan City 47,7 50 3,2 67 3,4 44 3,8 9 3,1 57 Single Tracking for Kafr El-Batikh - New Damietta City

103,0 103 2,4 102 3,0 99 2,8 101 2,7 101

Double Tracking for Mansoura - Damietta 16,7 16 3,4 51 3,6 22 3,5 31 3,6 9 Improvement of Signaling System for Increase of Freight Trains

62,7 64 3,1 76 3,5 34 3,1 84 3,2 49

Improvement of Tracks 54,3 56 3,2 69 3,4 49 3,4 51 3,4 26 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Damietta 86,3 86 3,0 81 3,0 96 3,2 79 3,0 70

Damietta Port; Study on Sedimentation problema 104,0 104 2,7 92 1,9 104 2,7 103 2,9 95 C

AIR

O-D

AMIE

TTA

/ PO

RT

SAID

Port Said East: Logistic Center 69,3 71 3,2 66 3,2 77 3,3 67 3,1 64 Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway) 16,7 16 4,0 6 3,6 26 3,6 24 3,3 32

CAIRO - SUEZ Double Tracking for Ain Shams - Robeki 75,7 78 3,0 84 3,4 50 3,2 74 3,1 65 Wadi Alnatroum Saloum Road 79,0 81 3,0 78 3,2 81 3,4 52 3,0 75 Alexandria-Saloum Road 43,0 44 3,4 52 3,4 47 3,3 65 3,2 45 Qantara-Rafah Road 30,0 32 3,6 43 3,5 38 3,6 29 3,3 41 Alamein Road 58,7 61 3,5 50 3,3 67 3,6 26 3,0 72 Single Tracking for Bir El Abd - Rafah 98,0 100 2,4 103 3,1 90 2,8 100 3,0 82 M

EDIT

ERR

ANEA

N

Rehabilitation of Tracks El-Kab - Bir El Abd 63,7 66 2,7 96 3,3 72 3,2 78 3,4 25 Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway) 29,3 30 3,5 46 3,5 37 3,6 22 3,3 30 Suez Canal Tunnel Ismailia 77,0 79 2,9 86 3,3 69 3,3 68 3,1 60 SINAI Alawga Ismailia Road 82,7 83 2,7 95 3,1 89 3,2 76 3,1 61 Albetrol Malwa Road 93,0 93 2,8 90 3,0 94 3,1 83 2,8 100 Qena Aswan Nile East Bank Road 82,7 83 3,1 72 3,1 84 3,1 82 3,0 81 Cairo - Asyut Desert Western Road (Expressway)

25,0 26 3,9 13 3,5 31 3,5 30 3,2 47

Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) Asyut to Aswan

51,0 53 3,6 35 3,4 46 3,4 61 3,1 58

El-Belina - Tahta Road 91,7 92 3,1 74 3,1 92 3,0 93 2,7 103 Kalabsha Bridge (Koum Ombo) (Aswan) 65,3 68 3,6 44 3,3 53 3,3 71 2,9 87 Abo Tig Bridge and Selim Coast (Asyut) 40,7 42 3,7 25 3,4 40 3,4 46 3,1 56 (High) Speed Railway for Cairo - Aswan [Electrificated]

71,7 73 3,0 79 3,4 48 3,0 90 3,3 36

Development of Railway Bridge for Lemon - Abbasiya - Tora 96,3 98 2,6 98 3,1 86 2,9 99 2,9 90

Improvement of Tracks 38,3 37 3,4 55 3,5 32 3,4 60 3,4 20 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (6 stations) 18,0 20 3,6 34 3,8 15 3,4 48 3,5 13

IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt 11,7 13 3,8 18 3,9 8 3,8 11 3,4 19 Lock Expansion with Comprehensive Lock Operation Improvement

68,3 70 3,3 60 3,1 83 3,4 55 3,1 66

UPP

ER E

GYP

T

Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Asyut 47,7 50 3,5 47 3,3 58 3,4 59 3,3 39


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Integrated Rank

Run-1 (OI)

Run-2 (PI)

Run-3 (II)

Run-4 (SSI)

CORRIDOR

Ave.

Ste

p1-3

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Tota

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El Ain El Sokhna - Zafarana Road 35,3 35 3,7 24 3,3 57 3,3 70 3,4 22 RED SEA

Safaga Baranis Halayeb Road 75,0 77 2,9 85 3,1 85 3,0 89 3,2 52 Eldaba Albetrol Road 101,0 101 2,6 99 3,0 102 3,1 85 2,7 102 ALbetrol Beni Mazar Road 97,7 99 2,5 101 3,0 101 3,2 75 2,8 97 Fayoum-Beni Suef Bypass 70,3 72 3,1 73 3,2 79 3,4 56 3,0 74 Wasta Bridge Connection 101,0 101 2,9 87 3,0 103 2,9 97 2,6 104 Helwan-Beni Suef Bridge 73,7 75 3,4 53 3,2 76 3,3 66 2,9 86 Zafarana Elkoraymat Road (Expressway) 40,3 40 3,6 41 3,4 41 3,6 28 3,2 54 Bahriya Siwa Road 96,0 97 2,7 94 3,0 98 2,9 96 2,9 89 Bahriya Minya Road 86,7 88 3,0 80 3,1 88 3,0 91 3,0 73 Minya Bridge 94,0 96 2,8 89 3,0 95 3,0 88 2,8 98 Upper Egypt East Desert Red Sea Road 61,3 62 3,6 37 3,3 70 3,2 77 3,2 53 Farafra Malwa Road 90,7 91 2,7 97 3,1 93 3,1 87 3,1 67 El-Dakhla Assyuit Road 89,7 90 2,8 91 3,1 91 3,1 86 3,0 79 Qena - Safaga Road 58,0 60 3,3 59 3,2 73 3,2 81 3,3 35 Single Tracking for Luxor - Hurghada [Electrificated] 87,3 89 2,6 100 3,1 82 2,7 102 3,3 42

Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Safaga 22,7 22 3,5 49 3,5 35 3,4 50 3,6 10 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Kharga 93,7 94 2,3 104 3,1 87 2,9 95 3,1 62

EAST

-WES

T

Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) South part from Aswan

68,0 69 3,1 77 3,3 60 3,3 62 3,1 59

SUEZ CANAL DEVELOPMENT Ismailia Suez Road (Expressway) 39,3 38 3,6 39 3,4 43 3,4 44 3,2 50

Passenger Intermodal Facilities 10,7 12 3,7 30 3,8 10 3,6 16 3,6 11 NATION - WIDE

Logistics Centers including improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4 stations)

8,3 8 3,7 32 3,9 8 3,6 27 3,7 6

Egyptian Transport Center (ETC) 1,0 1 4,1 2 4,5 1 4,0 3 4,4 1 Establishment of Dedicated Transport Fund

93,7 94 3,0 83 3,2 78 2,7 104 3,0 68

Development of road function based design and capacity standards 28,3 27 3,3 64 3,7 20 3,5 37 3,3 28

Road safety initiative (3E; Engineer, Education and Enforcement)

17,3 18 3,4 57 3,8 13 3,8 6 3,4 17

Railway Safety Initiative 22,7 22 3,3 63 3,6 21 3,8 10 3,4 23 Introduction of State of the art railway systems and control

29,3 30 3,3 65 3,7 19 3,5 40 3,3 31

SOFT

WAR

E

Development of IWT management database and Installation of IWT Navigation Information System

40,3 40 3,4 58 3,6 23 3,3 63 3,3 40

Strengthening MOT's responsibility covering all transport modes for integrated multimodal transport system & logistics

46,7 49 3,2 70 3,9 5 2,9 98 3,3 43

Training in modern traffic management and control systems

17,7 19 3,3 61 3,7 18 3,8 7 3,4 21

Training in modern road maintenance techniques 10,0 11 3,4 54 3,9 7 3,9 4 3,5 16

Extension of transformation plan 6,3 5 3,7 28 4,2 2 3,7 15 3,5 12

HU

MAN

WAR

E

Extension of NICHE program 9,0 10 3,7 31 4,1 4 3,6 18 3,5 14

The MCA evaluation was made with the hardware, software, and humanware projects combined to ensure that the implementation priority is consistent with the government objectives of modernizing the Egyptian transport sector and is not limited to just creating new (additional) transport infrastructure.

Ranking the results without considering the distinction between hardware, software, and humanware leads to a first integrated priority listing as presented in Table 6.1.2.


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Table 6.1.2 Integrated priority listing

PROJECT RANKING Egyptian Transport Center (ETC) 1 VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6 th of October City 2 Railway Link for 6th of October City 3 Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan 4 Extension of transformation plan 5 Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria 6 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2stations) 7 Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes) 8 Logistics Centers including improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4 stations) 8 Extension of NICHE program 10 Training in modern road maintenance techniques 11 Passenger Intermodal Facilities 12 IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt 13 Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway) 14 IWT port for ITC 15 Double Tracking for Mansoura – Damietta 16 Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway) 16 Road safety initiative (3E; Engineer, Education and Enforcement) 18 Training in modern traffic management and control systems 19 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (6 stations) 20 Cairo Alex Agriculture Bypass Kafr El Zayat - Alexandria 21 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Safaga 22 Railway Safety Initiative 22 Development of Management and Operation for Multi Purpose Terminal in El Dekheila 24 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway 25 Cairo - Asyut Desert Western Road (Expressway) 26 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria [High/Higher speed Alt-1] 27 Development of road function based design and capacity standards 27 Alexandria Bypass 29 Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway) 30 Introduction of State of the art railway systems and control 30 Qantara-Rafah Road 32 Dekheira Port: New Container Terminal 33 Improvement of Track Arrangement for Cairo – Qalyub 34 El Ain El Sokhna - Zafarana Road 35 3rd Stage Regional Ring Road (Southern Part of Expressway) 36 Improvement of Tracks 37 Ismailia Suez Road (Expressway) 38 Railway Link between Robeki to Helwan 39 Zafarana Elkoraymat Road (Expressway) 40 Development of IWT management database and Installation of IWT Navigation Information System

40

Abo Tig Bridge and Selim Coast (Asyut) 42 Triple Tracking for Qalyoub – Benha 43 Alexandria-Saloum Road 44 Belbeis-Banha-El Bagour-El Khatatba Regional Ring Road 45 Al Mahalla - Kafr El Sheikh – Damanhour 46 El-Qanater El-Bagour Shebin El-Koum Tanta Mahalla Matboul Road 46 Qantara Salheya Faqous Abu Kbeir Hehya Zaqaziq Road 46 Strengthening MOT's responsibility covering all transport modes for integrated multimodal transport system & logistics

49

Multi Purpose Terminal (Containers and General Cargo) at Alexandria Port 50 Railway Link for 10th of Ramadhan City 50 Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Asyut 50 Shubra elkhema - Banha Agriculture Road (Expressway) 53 Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) 53 Rod El Farag Road 55 Improvement of Tracks 56 Zakaziq – Toukh 57 Imbaba Qalyub Tawfekia Road 57 Zaqaziq Sinbellaween Road 59 Qena - Safaga Road 60 Alamein Road 61 Upper Egypt East Desert Red Sea Road 62 Improvement of Tracks 63


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Improvement of Signaling System for Increase of Freight Trains 64 Cairo - Tanta Bypass 65 Rehabilitation of Tracks El-Kab - Bir El Abd 66 Tanta - Kafr El Sheikh 67 Kalabsha Bridge (Koum Ombo) (Aswan) 68 Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) South part from Aswan 69 Lock Expansion with Comprehensive Lock Operation Improvement 70 Port Said East: Logistic Center 71 Fayoum-Beni Suef Bypass 72 (High) Speed Railway for Cairo - Aswan [Electrificated] 73 Mansoura Talha Dekernes Mataria Road 74 Helwan-Beni Suef Bridge 75 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria via Tanta [High/Higher speed Alt-2] 76 Safaga Baranis Halayeb Road 77 Double Tracking for Ain Shams – Robeki 78 Suez Canal Tunnel Ismailia 79 Desouq Fowa Metobas Road 80 Wadi Alnatroum Saloum Road 81 Double Tracking for Qalyoub - El Qnater 82 Alawga Ismailia Road 83 Qena Aswan Nile East Bank Road 83 Single Tracking for Basion City 85 Waterway Improvement Cairo – Alexandria 86 Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Damietta 86 Bahriya Minya Road 88 Single Tracking for Luxor - Hurghada [Electrificated] 89 El-Dakhla Assyuit Road 90 Farafra Malwa Road 91 El-Belina - Tahta Road 92 Albetrol Malwa Road 93 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Kharga 94 Establishment of Dedicated Transport Fund 94 Minya Bridge 96 Bahriya Siwa Road 97 Development of Railway Bridge for Lemon - Abbasiya - Tora 98 ALbetrol Beni Mazar Road 99 Single Tracking for Bir El Abd – Rafah 100 Eldaba Albetrol Road 101 Wasta Bridge Connection 101 Single Tracking for Kafr El-Batikh - New Damietta City 103 Damietta Port; Study on Sedimentation problema 104

The thirty most imporant projects are in order of priority:

1. Development of the Egyptian Transport Center (ETC); 2. VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6th of October City; 3. Railway Link for 6th of October City; 4. Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan; 5. Extension of transformation plan, 6. Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria; 7. Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2stations); 8. Following two projects have an equal score:

i Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes); ii Logistics Centers including improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4

stations); 9. Extension of NICHE program; 10. Training in modern road maintenance techniques; 11. Passenger Intermodal Facilities; 12. IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt;


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13. Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway); 14. IWT port for ITC; 15. Double Tracking for Mansoura – Damietta; 16. Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway); 17. Following two projects have an equal score: 18. Road safety initiative (3E; Engineer, Education and Enforcement);

i Training in modern traffic management and control systems; ii Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (6 stations);

19. Cairo Alex Agriculture Bypass Kafr El Zayat – Alexandria; 20. Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Safaga; 21. Railway Safety Initiative; 22. Development of Management and Operation for Multi Purpose Terminal in El Dekheila; 23. 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway; 24. Cairo - Asyut Desert Western Road (Expressway); 25. High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria [High/Higher speed Alt-1]; 26. Development of road function based design and capacity standards; 27. Alexandria Bypass; 28. Following two projects have an equal score:

i Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway); and ii Introduction of State of the art railway systems and control.

As can be observed in above listing, the first twenty projects are a mix of hardware, software, and humanware projects while the last ten projects are all infrastructure projects, with the exception of the Railway safety initiative and the introduction of a state of the art system for the railways.

The two railway projects are logically lower in the ranking as they become only truly relevant once the sector has improved its competitiveness and its role in passenger and freight transport has increased. Because all other projects between number 20 and 30 are infrastructure projects, it is logical to conclude that the most important investment decisions to be taken are related to the top 20 projects as ranked above.


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6.2. CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE PRIORITY PROJECTS

A more detailed evaluation of the first ten projects clearly shows that there is a need for concrete initiatives at the hardware, software and humanware levels with for each of the three intervention levels following priority:

1. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS a. VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6th of October City; b. Railway Link for 6th of October City; c. Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan; d. Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria; e. Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2stations); f. Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes); g. Logistics Centers including improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4

stations); 2. SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENTS

a. Development of the Egyptian Transport Center (ETC); 3. HUMANWARE DEVELOPMENTS

a. Extension of transformation plan, b. Extension of NICHE program.

The 10 priority projects are consistent with the government’s objectives of modernizing the transport sector and increasing its efficiency via modernization and intermodal integration. The results clearly focus 3 key components of a modern transport system, namely:

1. Modern governance (Egyptian Transport Center - ETC), 2. Efficient intermodal transport (Intermodal Transport Corridor - ITC, several terminal and station

developments), and 3. Adequate expertise (Transformation and NICHE programs).

Each of above projects has been proposed and specifically designed to achieve just that:

1. The Egyptian Transport Center is an essential development to modernize the sector and increase its efficiency because expert knowledge and modern planning and monitoring technology have become indispensible tools for governing an increasingly complex transport and logistics sector;

2. The development of the Intermodal Transport Corridor (ITC) is a high-priority infrastructure development program that aims at creating efficient national and international freight transport flows while simultaneously increasing the competitiveness of the Egyptian transport and logistics sector by creating new market-oriented services. Several of the priority infrastructure investments are directly associated with this program:

a. The VAL Center at 6th of October City is essential to stimulate the development of intermodal transport, increase freight transport efficiency and open the sector to new services and applications. This project is the central element in the ITC development program which has as priority aim to develop intermodal transport and modern for Egypt new VAL services;


6-8

b. The railway link between Alexandria and the VAL Center is an imperative investment for the successful development and exploitation of the VAL Center as it links the center to the key gateway for the traffic susceptible of being treated along the corridor.

c. The same is true for the railway link between Sokhna and Helwan where the need is even higher as planned investments in Sokhna port will create a new prime gateway for Egypt, needing imperatively a railway connection to the main consumption and production center of Egypt.

d. Upgrading the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Expressway to 8-lanes will be necessary to safely accommodate expected road traffic growth. In spite the efforts on the ITC corridor to shift cargo from the road to the railways, the role of road transport will continue to be very important and the upgrading of the key road connection between the two cities is of strategic importance to ensure safe and secure traffic of goods and persons.

3. The extension of the transformation plan is logically high in the ranking because it targets the extension of current support to ENR officers´ capacity development to ensure in the short-term future proper operations and marketing programs for passenger and freight transport. Considering that ENR is planned to become the backbone of Egypt’s transport system and the principal replacement for road transport, ensuring modern and appropriate expertise and know-how is urgent and imperative.

4. The extension of the NICHE program has the same priority as the transformation plan and therewith at a similar level of importance. The current support to RTA officers for capacity development, especially RTA management and operation capacities and strengthening of marketing and logistics knowledge and skills, including the utilization of modern databases and other information systems needs to be continued to ensure that the river transport sector one day will become competitive and represent a true alternative for the road transport sector.

The two remaining (infrastructure) projects in the top 10, the improvement of station facilities for passenger transport and the development of logistics centers for freight services score equally high as these are important elements to improve freight and passenger transport and the transfer from one mode to another. The development of the transport and logistics centers will also provide an impetus in developing new modern logistics services, an essential component in the Government’s sector modernization program.

Although an integrated view on the project priorities is essential to ensure the optimal sector modernization strategy, the following three tables set priorities for the three distinguished intervention areas, hardware, humanware and software.

Table 6.2.1 Hardware priority listing

HARDWARE PROJECTS INTEGRATED RANKING

VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6 th of October City 2 Railway Link for 6th of October City 3 Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan 4 Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria 6 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2stations) 7 Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes) 8 Logistics Centers including improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4 stations) 8 Passenger Intermodal Facilities 12 IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt 13 Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway) 14 IWT port for ITC 15 Double Tracking for Mansoura – Damietta 16 Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway) 16 Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (6 stations) 20 Cairo Alex Agriculture Bypass Kafr El Zayat - Alexandria 21


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Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Safaga 22 Development of Management and Operation for Multi Purpose Terminal in El Dekheila 24 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway 25 Cairo - Asyut Desert Western Road (Expressway) 26 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria [High/Higher speed Alt-1] 27 Alexandria Bypass 29 Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway) 30 Qantara-Rafah Road 32 Dekheira Port: New Container Terminal 33 Improvement of Track Arrangement for Cairo – Qalyub 34 El Ain El Sokhna - Zafarana Road 35 3rd Stage Regional Ring Road (Southern Part of Expressway) 36 Improvement of Tracks 37 Ismailia Suez Road (Expressway) 38 Railway Link between Robeki to Helwan 39 Zafarana Elkoraymat Road (Expressway) 40 Abo Tig Bridge and Selim Coast (Asyut) 42 Triple Tracking for Qalyoub – Benha 43 Alexandria-Saloum Road 44 Belbeis-Banha-El Bagour-El Khatatba Regional Ring Road 45 Al Mahalla - Kafr El Sheikh – Damanhour 46 El-Qanater El-Bagour Shebin El-Koum Tanta Mahalla Matboul Road 46 Qantara Salheya Faqous Abu Kbeir Hehya Zaqaziq Road 46 Multi Purpose Terminal (Containers and General Cargo) at Alexandria Port 50 Railway Link for 10th of Ramadhan City 50 Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Asyut 50 Shubra elkhema - Banha Agriculture Road (Expressway) 53 Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) Asyut to Aswan 53 Rod El Farag Road 55 Improvement of Tracks 56 Zakaziq – Toukh 57 Imbaba Qalyub Tawfekia Road 57 Zaqaziq Sinbellaween Road 59 Qena - Safaga Road 60 Alamein Road 61 Upper Egypt East Desert Red Sea Road 62 Improvement of Tracks 63 Improvement of Signaling System for Increase of Freight Trains 64 Cairo - Tanta Bypass 65 Rehabilitation of Tracks El-Kab - Bir El Abd 66 Tanta - Kafr El Sheikh 67 Kalabsha Bridge (Koum Ombo) (Aswan) 68 Asyut Aswan Abu simble Desert Western Road (Expressway) South part from Aswan 69 Lock Expansion with Comprehensive Lock Operation Improvement 70 Port Said East: Logistic Center 71 Fayoum-Beni Suef Bypass 72 (High) Speed Railway for Cairo - Aswan [Electrificated] 73 Mansoura Talha Dekernes Mataria Road 74 Helwan-Beni Suef Bridge 75 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria via Tanta [High/Higher speed Alt-2] 76 Safaga Baranis Halayeb Road 77 Double Tracking for Ain Shams – Robeki 78 Suez Canal Tunnel Ismailia 79 Desouq Fowa Metobas Road 80 Wadi Alnatroum Saloum Road 81 Double Tracking for Qalyoub - El Qnater 82 Alawga Ismailia Road 83 Qena Aswan Nile East Bank Road 83 Single Tracking for Basion City 85 Waterway Improvement Cairo – Alexandria 86


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Waterway Improvement on Cairo – Damietta 86 Bahriya Minya Road 88 Single Tracking for Luxor - Hurghada [Electrificated] 89 El-Dakhla Assyuit Road 90 Farafra Malwa Road 91 El-Belina - Tahta Road 92 Albetrol Malwa Road 93 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena – Kharga 94 Minya Bridge 96 Bahriya Siwa Road 97 Development of Railway Bridge for Lemon - Abbasiya - Tora 98 ALbetrol Beni Mazar Road 99 Single Tracking for Bir El Abd – Rafah 100 Eldaba Albetrol Road 101 Wasta Bridge Connection 101 Single Tracking for Kafr El-Batikh - New Damietta City 103 Damietta Port; Study on Sedimentation problema 104

Taking above ranking, the twenty priority infrastructure projects are :

1. VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6th of October City 2. Railway Link for 6th of October City 3. Railway Link between Sokhna Port to Helwan 4. Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria 5. Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (2 stations) 6. Cairo Alexandria Desert Expressway (Upgrade to 8-lanes) 7. Logistics Centers & improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (4 stations) 8. Passenger Intermodal Facilities 9. IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt

10. Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway) 11. IWT port for ITC 12. Double Tracking for Mansoura - Damietta 13. Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway) 14. Improvement of Station Facilities for Freight Services (6 stations) 15. Cairo Alex Agriculture Bypass Kafr El Zayat - Alexandria 16. Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Safaga 17. Development of Management and Operation for Multi Purpose Terminal in El Dekheila 18. 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway 19. Cairo - Asyut Desert Western Road (Expressway) 20. High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria [High/Higher speed Alt-1]

The first twenty investments in above priority infrastructure project listing are fully consistent with the Government’s modernization objectives and focus in the first place the development of the Intermodal Transport Corridor, including the maritime terminal development in El Dekheila port and to a lesser extent the inland river port to link the Upper Egypt waterway corridor. The ITC development is amended with various other projects oriented towards efficient and integrated transport of passengers and freight. It is important to notice that the proposed infrastructure investments include projects for each of the transport modes, namely road, railways, river and maritime (terminals).

The software investment priority is listed in Table 6.2.2.


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Table 6.2.2 Software priority listing

SOFTWARE PROJECTS INTEGRATED RANKING

Egyptian Transport Center (ETC) 1

Road safety initiative (3E; Engineer, Education and Enforcement) 18

Railway Safety Initiative 22

Development of road function based design and capacity standards 27

Introduction of state of the art railway systems and control 30 Development of IWT management database and Installation of IWT Navigation Information System

40

Establishment of Dedicated Transport Fund 94

Any modernization of the Egyptian transport sector needs state-of-the-art technology to get detailed insight into the existing conditions and future needs. The proposed ETC is therefore the software project with the highest priority, both in the integrated as the software project ranking. The poor safety record of both the Egyptian road and railway sectors is well-known and software projects to improve safety of travel are therefore second in line and in the integrated listing part of the top 30 of projects. The two first projects are directly oriented towards improving safety, while the third project is an indirect project that will increase road safety via improved technical standards (for road infrastructure). As a road project and considering the dominance of road transport, this project is first in line but relates closely to the next two projects where technology is used to improve railway and river transport efficiency and where safety will also improve thanks to better supervision and control of the transport system.

Finally, humanware project priority is presented in Table 6.2.3.

Table 6.2.3 Humanware priority listing

HUMANWARE PROJECTS INTEGRATED RANKING

Extension of transformation plan 5

Extension of NICHE program 10

Training in modern road maintenance techniques 11

Training in modern traffic management and control systems 19 Strengthening MOT's responsibility covering all transport modes for integrated multimodal transport system & logistics

49

All proposed humanware development projects are all part of the fifty most important projects, with four out of the five proposed projects listed in the top 20 of priority projects.


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CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Although above table suggests a sequential implementation of the different projects, the proposed software, hardware, and humanware projects can start simultaneously because the implementation time and components that together make up the respective projects differ, allowing an approach as suggested in Figure 7.1.1.

Figure 7.1.1 Consolidated Implementation Logic

The first, urgent, and most important project for the modernization of the Egyptian transport sector is the establishment of the Egyptian Transport Center (ETC) which will be supplied with state-of-the-art software and trained personnel. It will be the key tool for public decision-makers for transport planning and strategy development.

With the ETC expertise and equipment available, the Egyptian government will no longer need expensive external expertise to assess the performance of the transport sector, forecast the future evolution of transport in Egypt which will be key input for the design and amendment of the national transport strategy.

The contribution to the modernization and transformation of the Egyptian transport sector will be continuous and should in the long-term future lead to the creation of a governmental transport management system that will control, manage and govern the sector at the national level.

The second key project of which the implementation should not be delayed is the gradual development of the Intermodal Transport Corridor (ITC).

This project will be spread over a long period of time as it involves different sometimes important infrastructure investments which should be implemented in a sequential order of decreasing importance as suggested in more detail in Figure 7.1.2.


7-2

Figure7.1.2 ITC project implementation logic

The construction of the VAL center at 6th of October is undoubtedly the first project of the ITC program that needs to be realized as soon as possible for several reasons:

It is located at the center of Egyptian consumption and production;

It will generate benefits as soon as the infrastructure is operational;

Its development cost is low, and

The need is immediate.

But to maximize the benefits of this investment and to ensure the center can play in full its role in the envisaged transport corridor, it should be linked to the Alexandria – Cairo railway connection, hence making the link between the center and the railway network an equally important investment.

Once these two projects have been initiated, the other components of the ITC project can be envisaged, with the highest priority in the short- to medium-term attributed to the railway link to the port of Sokhna, the other end of the Alexandria – Cairo – Sokhna corridor.

To a lesser extent, upgrading the Desert Expressway can also be envisaged because road transport will remain a dominant mode of transport for bringing freight from Alexandria port to the Cairo region.

The three remaining projects, although important, are to be envisaged in the long-term, with the IWT port in the Cairo region to link to the ITC corridor as first in line of implementation.

All remaining hardware projects, are developments to be considered in the long-term, and its implementation can be realized in the order as proposed in the multi-criteria analysis. The final timing of the concrete development will most likely be decided based upon budgetary considerations rather than on considerations of priority. Given that these projects all can be considered as amendments to the above priority projects, the concrete implementation of some of these projects could be considered in case of a budgetary surplus, but only if most if not all short- and medium-term projects have been realized.

The third group of projects which should start together with or at latest once the ETC is realized, is the increase of know-how and expertise as well as programs to improve the traffic conditions on the transport infrastructure (maintenance and control applications).

In the group of software projects, the highest priority should be to be attributed to the road sector, followed by the railway sector, corresponding to their respective roles in the transport of freight and passengers in Egypt. Projects in the river transport sector are of a lower priority and will only become truly relevant once river transport has gained its place as third land transport alternative, offering competitive services and


7-3

transporting a representative level of cargo which should not be limited to the traditional low-value bulk cargoes.

Although humanware projects are frequently forgotten or their importance ignored or neglected, all proposed humanware development projects are part of the fifty most important projects, with four out of the five proposed projects listed in the top 20 of priority projects. All should therefore be implemented as quickly as possible, certainly considering the small capital investments these projects require.


8-1

CHAPTER 8: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

8.1. METHODOLOGY

The main purpose of the economic analysis is to show the effects of the implementation of master plan, from the point of view of the nation’s economic well-being and to estimate a return on the resources invested. For the purpose of economic evaluation, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR), net present value (NPV) and benefit – cost ratio (BC ratio) are demonstrated.

Economic analysis follows a conventional cost benefit analysis of discounted cash flow methodology. The cost benefit analysis is made by comparison between economic benefits and costs.

8.2. BASIC ASSUMPTION

The following basic assumptions are made:

“With case” and “Without case”: there three different five year planning horizons short-term (present to year 2017), mid-term (years 2018 - 2022) and long-term (years 2023 - 2027) have been adapted. The “with case” is set with the projects which are expected to be implemented for that period with transport demand and fuel price strategy in accordance with preferred transport scenario conditions. All projects by mode types are categorized in short, mid and long-terms as shown in Table 8.2.1. The “without case” does not include the new projects foreseen for that stage of the Master Plan, which means that all projects shown in Table 8.2.1 are not implemented in any terms.

Evaluation period and project life: the economic evaluation period extends to the year of 2037 and each project life is assumed as 30 years from middle year of each five year period. This means the residual value for each project investment is taken into consideration.

Economic price: Financial costs are converted to economic costs by deducting the tax and subsidies portions, and applying a standard conversion factor (SCF) to the portion of non-trade goods. A value of 0.85 is applied to the local portion of costs in order to adjust the price for this study.

The discount rate is set as 12 %.


8-2

Table 8.2.1 Projects Categorized in Terms Unit: LE million (Financial Price)

Public Private Public Private1 RD-204 1,775 RW-309 625 PT-2 700 IW-1 1,000 L-1 1,000 HW-2 300

2 RD-300 2,608 RW-401 900 PT-3 1,500 IW-2 1,000 L-2 2,499 HW-3 300

3 RD-301 3,026 RW-402-4 2,139 P-1 1,125 HW-4 300

4 RD-302 1,759 RW-403 4,125 SW-1 300 HW-5 300

5 RD-304 1,455 RW-406 2,400 SW-3 3006 RD-308 3,125 RW-407 2,100 SW-4 3007 RD-309 2,147 RW-409 2,375 SW-5 3008 RD-310 2,500 RW-412 1,025 SW-6 8,9579 RD-311 2,276 RW-412-4 2,81310 RD-312 3,702 RW-420 3,75011 RD-317 1,00112 RD-321 34113 RD-998 1,650

sub-total 8,775 18,589 - 22,251 0 - 2,200 - 2,000 - 14,781 - 1,2001 RD-200 4,375 RW-300 625 PT-1 1,500 IW-3 290 SW-2 300 HW-1 300

2 RD-214 550 RW-304 2,208 19,872 PT-5 1,500 IW-4 650 SW-7 6203 RD-215 900 RW-307 1254 RD-216 650 RW-308 5005 RD-226 750 RW-310 8756 RD-298 625 RW-313 2,2957 RD-299 344 RW-402-1 6278 RD-303 5,009 RW-402-2 9229 RD-307 4,104 RW-410 2,00010 RD-313-1 4,63411 RD-313-2 3,07312 RD-314 2,26413 RD-315 2,50014 RD-316 85515 RD-318 25016 RD-319 62517 RD-320 68818 RD-322 3,28119 RD-323 3,59920 RD-327 1,16321 RD-332 42022 RD-333 23823 RD-334 45224 RD-994 22025 RD-997 30626 RD-999 2,500

sub-total 26,440 17,933 - 10,177 19,872 - 3,000 - 940 - 920 - 3001 RD-225 250 RW-301 300 PT-4 1,000 IW-5 5002 RD-305 2,324 RW-302 105 IW-6 6003 RD-306 1,295 RW-303 5,4004 RD-324 2,492 RW-306 1255 RD-325 1,189 RW-312 1,2006 RD-326 1,600 RW-408 2,8757 RD-328 1,342 RW-999 13,950 125,5508 RD-329 2,6759 RD-330 2,50410 RD-331 2,84411 RD-995 11412 RD-996 388

sub-total 19,018 0 - 23,955 125,550 - 1,000 - 1,100 - 0 - 0Grand total 54,233 36,522 - 56,383 145,422 - 6,200 - 4,040 - 15,701 - 1,500

Source: JICA study team

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Cost CostTerm No.

CostRoad Rail Port IWT

CostHW

8.3. ESTIMATED COSTS

8.3.1. Project Costs

The project costs are included all projects/programs listed in hardware, humanaware as well as software. Foreign and local portions of the project costs are assumed 25% and 75% in total, respectively. And local portions of project costs are converted from financial prices to economic prices by SCF 0.85. The results of project costs with financial and economic prices are summarized in Table 8.3.1. The evaluation input for investment cost is averaged over five years for each five year period.


8-3

Table 8.3.1 Project Costs

unit: LE million

Term Financial Cost Economic Cost

Mid 79,581 70,628

Long 170,623 151,428

Total 320,000 284,000


8.3.2. Operation and Maintenance Costs

Road maintenance unit costs are added for project roads in accordance with its road length. The unit cost of maintenance has gradually been improved from current 20,000 LE/km expenditure pattern to optimized 82,000 LE/km by year 2037. The maintenance costs of other modes are noted as being included in unit operating costs.

8.4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS

Expected benefits can include direct and indirect benefits. Direct benefits consist of saving of travel time and vehicle operation costs, reduction of traffic accidents and environmental improvement due to CO2 emission. Indirect benefits can include regional economic growth, job creation and income improvement as well as changes of land value. The MiNTS economic analysis quantifies only direct benefits.

Prior to the estimation of benefits, the following basic calculation units are estimated.

VOC: The results of VOC by vehicle types are summarized in Table 8.4.1. In this analysis, VOC for 50 km/hour is applied as average values for the estimation of benefits, which are 0.70, 0.61 and 1.41 LE for car, shared taxi and bus, respectively.

Table 8.4.1 Vehicle Operation Cost by Vehicle Type

Unit: LE (Economic Price) Speed

(km/hour) Car

Shared Taxi

Bus

10 1.88 1.48 2.96

20 1.15 0.95 1.97

30 0.90 0.75 1.61

40 0.77 0.65 1.42

50 0.70 0.61 1.41

60 0.69 0.61 1.51

70 0.70 0.63 1.65

80 0.72 0.67 1.84

90 0.76 0.72 2.01 Source: JICA study team

Travel time: Based on the willingness to pay for travel time savings, value for car, shared taxi, bus and railway is estimated as 17.2, 13.7, 7.3 and 15 LE/hour, respectively.

Freight cost: Freight costs by mode types are summarized in Table 8.4.2.


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Table 8.4.2 Freight Cost by Mode Type

Unit: Cost per ton-km (LE) (Economic Price)

Year 2010 & 2020

Mode Packed Bulk Container

Road 0.40 0.46 0.43

Railway 0.31 0.36 0.34

IWT 0.27 0.30 0.29

Year 2030

Mode Packed Bulk Container

Road 0.40 0.46 0.43

Railway 0.22 0.25 0.24

IWT 0.13 0.15 0.15 Source: JICA study team

The accident cost: The total accident costs in Egypt in 2008 were 12,705 million LE according to WHO. Considering the balance between national and urban transport, a half of the total accident costs are estimated as the annual value of urban transport which is 6,352 million LE.

The value of carbon tax is 100 LE/ton according to the “Nikkei-JBIC Carbon Quotation Index 2011”.

Based on the estimation of basic calculation units, the benefits of VOC, travel time and freight are calculated as shown in Table 8.4.3. Although the benefit of VOC shows negative, benefits in total including travel time and freight produce the economic benefits.

The reduction of accident costs and carbon tax is shown in Table 8.5.1.


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Table 8.4.3 Benefits of VOC, Travel Time and Freight

Unit: LE million (Economic Price)

Road Railway

2011 0 0 0 0 0

2012 0 0 0 0 0

2013 -88 3,092 786 125 3,915

2014 -175 6,183 1,571 250 7,830

2015 -263 9,275 2,357 375 11,745

2016 -350 12,367 3,143 500 15,660

2017 -438 15,459 3,929 625 19,575

2018 -421 15,402 4,024 798 19,803

2019 -405 15,346 4,120 971 20,032

2020 -388 15,289 4,216 1,144 20,260

2021 -372 15,233 4,311 1,316 20,488

2022 -355 15,176 4,407 1,489 20,717

2023 -289 13,969 3,714 1,760 19,154

2024 -223 12,761 3,021 2,031 17,591

2025 -156 11,554 2,328 2,303 16,028

2026 -90 10,347 1,635 2,574 14,465

2027 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2028 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2029 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2030 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2031 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2032 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2033 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2034 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2035 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2036 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

2037 -24 9,139 942 2,845 12,902

Total -4,272 271,982 53,919 47,556 369,185Source: JICA Study Team

VOC Total BenefitTravel Time

FreightYear

8.5. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS

Based on the above estimated economic costs and benefits, the annual flows are estimated as shown in Table 8.5.1. The investment, converted to an economic cost of 289 billion LE, is shown as producing direct economic benefits of 13.6 billion LE in year 2027, and a B/C ratio (at 12% discount rate) of 1.10. The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) is estimated at 17.8 percent.

It may therefore be concluded that the MiNTS initiatives are economically viable and worth being implemented in terms of a national economic context.


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Table 8.5.1 Economic Analysis Results Unit: LE million (Economic Price)

InvestmentMaintenance

for Road Total VOC +TimeCost + Freight

Reduction inAccident

Reduction inPollution Total

2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013 12,389 8 12,397 3,915 -3 -92 3,820 -8,577

2014 12,389 16 12,405 7,830 -6 -184 7,639 -4,765

2015 12,389 24 12,413 11,745 -9 -276 11,459 -954

2016 12,389 32 12,421 15,660 -12 -369 15,279 2,858

2017 12,389 40 12,429 19,575 -15 -461 19,099 6,669

2018 14,126 83 14,208 19,803 -7 -357 19,439 5,230

2019 14,126 125 14,251 20,032 0 -253 19,779 5,528

2020 14,126 167 14,293 20,260 8 -149 20,119 5,826

2021 14,126 210 14,335 20,488 16 -45 20,459 6,124

2022 14,126 252 14,378 20,717 23 59 20,799 6,422

2023 30,286 306 30,591 19,154 101 99 19,355 -11,237

2024 30,286 359 30,645 17,591 179 140 17,910 -12,735

2025 30,286 413 30,698 16,028 257 180 16,465 -14,233

2026 30,286 466 30,752 14,465 335 220 15,020 -15,732

2027 30,286 520 30,805 12,902 413 260 13,575 -17,230

2028 555 555 12,902 413 260 13,575 13,020

2029 573 573 12,902 413 260 13,575 13,002

2030 591 591 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,984

2031 609 609 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,966

2032 627 627 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,948

2033 645 645 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,930

2034 663 663 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,912

2035 681 681 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,894

2036 699 699 12,902 413 260 13,575 12,876

2037 -137,981 698 -137,282 12,902 413 260 13,575 150,857

Total 146,020 9,366 155,385 369,185 5,409 1,373 375,968 220,582NPV 68,714 1,201 81,388 89,941 547 -644 89,845 8,456

B/C Disscount rate 12% 1.10

EIRR 17.8%Source: JICA Study Team

YearCost Benefit

Net CashFlow

Indicator Results Economic Internal of Return (EIRR) 17.8 percent

B/C (Benefit/cost ratio, 12 % discount rate) 1.10 NPV (Net present value, 12% discount rate) 8,456 million LE


8.6. SENSITIVE ANALYSIS

The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the “worst case scenario” in Table 8.6.1, defined as experiencing minus 10 percent benefits and plus 10 percent costs, slightly exhibits an EIRR of more or less 12 percent..

Table 8.6.1 Results of Sensitive Analysis

Sensitivity Case Base Case Benefits : -10% Costs: +10% Benefits: -10% & Costs: +10%

NPV 8,456 -542 422 -8,561 B/C 1.10 0.99 1.00 0.90

EIRR 17.8% 11.7% 12.2% 8.6%


APPENDIX

1. PROJECT MAP BY TERMS 2. TIME FRAME OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION BY CORRIDOR 3. PROJECT OUTLINE BY CORRIDOR 4. CORRIDOR RANKING


A-1

1. PROJECT MAP BY TERMS Short-Term Projects [Hardware, Software and Humanware Projects]

Note: Project details can be referred by project code number in chapter 6, Hardware opportunities, chapter 7, Humanware opportunities and chapter

8, Software opportunities.

PT-2/ PT-3 Multi Purpose Terminal/ New container Terminal Dev. in Dekiheila Port

IW-1 Port Development for ITC

IW-2 Port Development

L-1 VAL center at 6th of October.

L-2 Logistic centers (50), including improvement of station facilities for freight services (4)

P-1 Passenger intermodal facilities (50)

[Nation wide]

[Software]

SW-1, SW-3, SW-4, SW-5, SW-6

[Humanware]

HW-2, HW-3, HW-4, HW-5


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Mid-Term Projects [Hardware, Software and Humanware Projects]

Note: Project details can be referred by project code number in chapter 6, Hardware opportunities, chapter 7, Humanware opportunities and chapter

8, Software opportunities.

PT-5 Logistic Center

PT-1 Multi purpose terminal at Alexandria port

IW-3 Lock Expansion

IW-4 Waterway improvement, Cairo-Asyut

[Software]

SW-2, SW-7

[Humanware]

HW1


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Long-Term Projects [Hardware Projects]

Note: Project details can be referred by project code number in chapter 6, Hardware opportunities.

PT-4 Sedimentation Countermeasures

IW-5/ 6 Waterway Improvement, Cairo-Alexandria, Cairo-Damietta


A-4

2. TIME FRAME OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION BY CORRIDO Master Plan for ”Intermodal Transport Corridor”

Master Plan

ID NAME Short Mid Long

RD-300 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway



RD-998 Alexandria Bypass

RW-403 Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria

RW-406 Railway Link for 6th of October City

RW-407 Railway Link between Robeki to Helwan




L-1 VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6 th of October City

IW-1 IWT port for ITC

IW-5 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Alexandria




Construction Study Design

Completion LEGEND


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Master Plan for “Cairo-Damietta/Port Said Corridor”

Master Plan


RD-308 Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway)

RW-313 Railway Link for 10th of Ramadhan City

RW-302 Single Tracking for Kafr El-Batikh - New Damietta City

RW-309 Double Tracking for Mansoura - Damietta


RW-402-2 Improvement of Tracks

IW-6 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Damietta

PT-4 Damietta Port; Study on Sedimentation problem

PT-5 Port Said East: Logistic Center


Completion LEGEND


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Master Plan for “Cairo-Alexandria Corridor and Cairo-Suez Corridor”

Cairo-Alexandria Corridor Short





Cairo-Suez Corridor Master Plan


RD-310 Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway)

RW-300 Double Tracking for Ain Shams - Robeki


Completion LEGEND


A-7

Master Plan for “Inland Delta and Suez Canal Development Corridor”

Inland Delta Corridors

Master Plan ID NAME

Short Mid Long

RD-999 Cairo - Tanta Bypass

RD-332 Zakaziq - Toukh

RD-304 Rod El Farag Road

RD-333 Tanta - Kafr El Sheikh

RD-334 Al Mahalla - Kafr El Sheikh - Damanhour

RD-318 Desouq Fowa Metobas Road

RD-319 Imbaba Qalyub Tawfekia Road



RD-214 Zaqaziq Sinbellaween Road

RD-215 Mansoura Talha Dekernes Mataria Road


RW-301 Single Tracking for Basion City

RW-307 Double Tracking for Qalyoub - El Qnater

RW-308 Triple Tracking for Qalyoub - Benha

RW-401 Improvement of Track Arrangement for Cairo - Qalyub

Suez Canal Development Corridor



Completion LEGEND


A-8

Master Plan for “Mediterranean Corridor and Sinai Corridor”

Mediterranean Corridor Master Plan


RD-323 Wadi Alnatroum Saloum Road

RD-307 Alexandria-Saloum Road

RD-309 Qantara-Rafah Road

RD-316 Alamein Road

RW-312 Single Tracking for Bir El Abd - Rafah


Sinai Corridor

Master Plan ID NAME

Short Mid Long

RD-311 Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway)

RD-327 Suez Canal Tunnel Ismailia

RD-328 Alawga Ismailia Road


Completion LEGEND


A-9

Master Plan for “Red Sea Corridor”

Master Plan


RD-321 El Ain El Sokhna - Zafarana Road

RD-322 Safaga Baranis Halayeb Road


Completion LEGEND


A-10

Master Plan for “Upper Egypt Corridor”


A-11

Master Plan


RD-326 Albetrol Malwa Road

RD-331 Qena Aswan Nile East Bank Road



RD-225 El-Belina - Tahta Road

RD-298 Kalabsha Bridge (Koum Ombo) (Aswan)

RD-299 Abo Tig Bridge and Selim Coast (Asyut)

RW-999

High Speed Railway for Cairo - Aswan [Electrificated]

Cairo – Asyut

Asyut – Luxor

Luxor - Aswan




IW-2 IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt


IW-4 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Asyut


Completion LEGEND


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Master Plan for “East-West Corridors”


A-13

East-West Corridor 1 Master Plan


RD-324 Eldaba Albetrol Road

RD-325 ALbetrol Beni Mazar Road

RD-994 Fayoum-Beni Suef Bypass

RD-995 Wasta Bridge Connection

RD-997 Helwan-Beni Suef Bridge

RD-314 Zafarana Elkoraymat Road (Expressway)

East-West Corridor 2

RD-305 Bahriya Siwa Road

RD-306 Bahriya Minya Road

East-West Corridor 3 RD-996 Minya Bridge

RD-303 Upper Egypt East Desert Red Sea Road

RD-329 Farafra Malwa Road

RD-330 El-Dakhla Assyuit Road

East-West Corridor 4 RD-226 Qena - Safaga Road


RW-409 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Safaga

RW-408 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Kharga

East-West Corridor 5



Completion LEGEND


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3. PROJECT OUTLINE BY CORRIDOR Annex 1: Intermodal Transport Corridor

Corridor Project Listing

ID NAME PROJECT OUTLINE PROJECT COST

(mil. LE)

RD-300 3rd Cairo Alex Expressway connects from Cairo to Borg el Arab in desert area by 6-lanes, 120km/h [New Expressway] 2,608


Committed project is 6-lanes. upgraded to 8-lanes [Upgrade of Expressway]

1,775


forms southern part of Outer Ring Road, 6-lanes, 100km/h [New Expressway] 3,026

RD-998 Alexandria Bypass forms urban ring road connects the Cairo-Alex desert expressway, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 1,650

RW-403 Double Tracking of Bypass Line for Cairo - New Alexandria for freight line (diesel) with local passenger 4,125

RW-406 Railway Link for 6th of October City connects from RW-403 and Baharia line via L-1 [New Rail Line] 2,400

RW-407 Railway Link between Robeki to Helwan forms a part of south ring railway route [New Rail Line] 2,100


Good intermodal connection & facilities, railway layout/arrangement, warehouse and station office at Qabbary and other station

1,025


New freight railway line for direct link from Sokhna port to 6th of October [New Rail Line] 3,750


connects to Alex. to Cairo (6th of October, Smart city) along Cairo - Alex. dessert road, directly, max.speed 250kph technology, [New HSR]

22,080

L-1 VAL (Value Added Logistics) Center at 6 th of October City New VAL/ Distribution Center 1,000


A-15


(mil. LE)

IW-1 IWT port for ITC connects to south ring railway route around Helwan, Tebbin port improvement, includes waterway, navigation and lock operation improvement.

1,000

IW-5 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Alexandria

aims to dredging for safe navigability preventing from sedimentation (width 40m x dredging depth 1.5m x203km).

500


to ensure the capacity of future container demand for Alex. and Dekheila, 1) The development of the berths area (55,56,57,58,59,60), 2) Dredging the berths to reach a depth of 14 m instead of 5,6,9,10m, 3) Using the soil resulting from the dredging operations in the establishment of the terminal's yards, 4) The lengths of the berths are expected to reach 1,630m, 5) The area = approx. 290 thousand m2, (proposed by previous JICA study in 1990)

1,500


to ensure future cargo demand in 2027 as an essential port for the window of Intermodal Transport Corridor to connect to railway and road with smooth and well organized, located between berth 91 and 92, A maritime dock composed of 2 berths with total length up to 800m and a depth not less than 14-15m, Storing yards, warehouses and administrative buildings over an area up to 262.370 thousand m2, Water surface of about 162 thousand m2, Breakwater project is under construction.

700


to ensure future cargo demand in 2027 as a window of Intermodal Transport Corridor, to access to railway and road with smooth and well organized connection, Breakwater construction project is under implementation

1,500

Note: RD: Road, RW: Railway, L: Logistics, IW: Inland Waterway Transport, PT, Sea Port


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Annex 2: Cairo-Damietta/Port Said Corridor

Corridor Project Listing


(mil. LE)

RD-308 Cairo Ismailia Port Said Road (Expressway) connects from ring road to Port Said, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

3,125

RW-313 Railway Link for 10th of Ramadhan City connects between Tel el Kebir to Robeki through Logistics Center [New Rail Line] 2,295

RW-302 Single Tracking for Kafr El-Batikh - New Damietta City Damietta City only [New Rail Line] 105

RW-309 Double Tracking for Mansoura - Damietta connects to Damietta [Double Tracking] 625


connects for Tanta - Mansoura - Damietta [Signal Improvement]

875

RW-402-2 Improvement of Tracks 1)Track renewal, 2) New track maintenance machines, Damietta, Port Said line

922

IW-6 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Damietta aims to dredging for safe navigability preventing from sedimentation (width 40m x dredging depth 2m x200km).

600

PT-4 Damietta Port; Study on Sedimentation problem

detailed study (10mil.LE) is required to find suitable solution to sedimentation problem. Note that Damietta port authority used about 75mil.LE for annual maintenance for dredging.

1,000

PT-5 Port Said East: Logistic Center exist the plan by 1st Stage in 2008, for bonded area and distribution center for import/export cargo 1,500

Note: RD: Road, RW: Railway, IW: Inland Waterway Transport, PT, Sea Port


A-17

Annex 3: Cairo-Alexandria Corridor and Cairo-Suez Corridor

Project Listing: Cairo-Alexandria Corridor


(mil. LE)


bypass road for Tanta to Alex. in south side of agricultural road in 6-lanes [New Art. Road]

1,759


bypass road for Cairo to Benha in west side, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway] 2,500

RW-400 High Speed Railway for Cairo - Alexandria via Tanta [High/Higher speed Alt-2]

Alternative route of Italian proposal [RW-304 Alt-1], max. speed 250kph technology <only for confirming demands compared with RW-304> [New HSR]

36,000

RW-402-1 Improvement of Tracks 1)Track renewal, 2)New track maintenance machines, Cairo - Tanta - Alex. 627

Note: RD: Road, RW: Railway

Project Listing: Cairo-Suez Corridor


(mil. LE)

RD-310 Cairo -Suez Road (Expressway) connects form ring road to Suez, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway] 2,500

RW-300 Double Tracking for Ain Shams - Robeki from Cairo - Robekki along Cairo - Suez line [Double Tracking] 625



A-18

Annex 4: Inland Delta and Suez Canal Development Corridor

Project Listing: Inland Delta Corridors


(mil. LE)

RD-999 Cairo - Tanta Bypass bypass road for Cairo to Tanta in east side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

2,500

RD-332 Zakaziq - Toukh bypass road for Benha to Zagazik in south side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 420

RD-304 Rod El Farag Road connects from Cairo city to 6th of October, 6-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 1,455

RD-333 Tanta - Kafr El Sheikh forms regional road for north bound from Tanta, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening] 238

RD-334 Al Mahalla - Kafr El Sheikh - Damanhour connects regional road located on the north side of Tanta, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening] 452

RD-318 Desouq Fowa Metobas Road located along Nile river right side near Alex., 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

250

RD-319 Imbaba Qalyub Tawfekia Road located along Nile river left side from Cairo, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

625


In parallel to Cairo - Tanta agricultural road, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening] 688


forms Northern part of Outer Ring Road, also the role of Mediterranean Corridor, 6-lanes, 100km/h [New Expressway]

4,375

RD-214 Zaqaziq Sinbellaween Road under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

550

RD-215 Mansoura Talha Dekernes Mataria Road under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening] 900



650


A-19


(mil. LE)

RW-301 Single Tracking for Basion City not in main line between Cairo - Alex. [New Rail Line] 300

RW-307 Double Tracking for Qalyoub - El Qnater not in main line between Cairo - Alex. [Double Tracking] 125

RW-308 Triple Tracking for Qalyoub - Benha connects Cairo - Qalyoub with triple tracks [Triple Tracking] 500

RW-401 Improvement of Track Arrangement for Cairo - Qalyub

Cairo and Qalyub Station: Rearrangement of track lines, Qalyub Station: Construction of elevated railway, [Track Improvement]

900


Project Listing: Suez Canal Development Corridor


(mil. LE)


connects from Suez to Ismailia at west side of Suez canal, 6-lanes, 100km/h, connects to RD-308 (upgrade to Expressway from Ismailia to Port Said) [Upgrade to Expressway] Note: Railway projects related this corridor are RW-200 (west side, signal improvement (on-going) and RW-410 (east side, railway rehabilitation)

1,001

Note: RD: Road


A-20

Annex 5: Mediterranean Corridor and Sinai Corridor

Project Listing: Mediterranean Corridor


(mil. LE)

RD-323 Wadi Alnatroum Saloum Road connects to Libya, in parallel to RD-307 in desert area, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 3,599

RD-307 Alexandria-Saloum Road connects to Libya along coastline, 4-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway] 4,104

RD-309 Qantara-Rafah Road connects to Rafah along coast line, 6-lane, 100kmh [Upgrade to Expressway] 2,147

RD-316 Alamein Road forms shortcut route from Cairo-Alex. Desert Road to Western Mediterranean Coast Roads, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Upgrade of Art. Road]

855

RW-312 Single Tracking for Bir El Abd - Rafah connects to Rafah along coast line [New Rail Line]

1,200


connects to Suez bridge, Port Said East and RW-312 [Track Improvement] 2,000


Project Listing: Sinai Corridor


(mil. LE)

RD-311 Suez Ras elnakab Road (Expressway) connects from Suez to Taba border, 4-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

2,276

RD-327 Suez Canal Tunnel Ismailia New tunnel at Suez Canal to connect RD-328, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Tunnel]

1,163

RD-328 Alawga Ismailia Road connects from Ismailia to Alawaga border, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

1,342

Note: RD: Road


A-21

Annex 6: Red Sea Corridor

Project Listing: Red Sea Corridor


(mil. LE)

RD-321 El Ain El Sokhna - Zafarana Road Northern side of Red Sea coastline, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

341

RD-322 Safaga Baranis Halayeb Road Southern side of Read Sea coastline, 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening] 3,281

Note: RD: Road


A-22

Annex 7: Upper Egypt Corridor


A-23

Project Listing: Upper Egypt Corridor


(mil. LE)

RD-326 Albetrol Malwa Road forms shortcut route from Borg el Arab to Asyut, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road]

1,600

RD-331 Qena Aswan Nile East Bank Road runs to the east side of Nile river in desert, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 2,844


runs to the west side of Nile river in desert, 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway] 3,702


connects from RW-312 in desert, 6-lanes, 100kh/h [Upgrade to Expressway] 4,634

RD-225 El-Belina - Tahta Road connects from RD-312 to west agricultural road, under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

250

RD-298 Kalabsha Bridge (Koum Ombo) (Aswan) connects to both side of Nile river [New Bridge] 625

RD-299 Abo Tig Bridge and Selim Coast (Asyut) connects to both side of Nile river [New Bridge] 344

RW-999 (High) Speed Railway for Cairo - Aswan [Electrificated]

New line for passenger railway (200kph) stopping at only major cities [New HSR]

139,500


runs in southern area of grater Cairo region [Track Improvement] 125

RW-402-4 Improvement of Tracks 1) Track renewal, 2) New track maintenance machines on Cairo - Aswan 2,139


Good intermodal connection & facilities, railway layout/arrangement, warehouse and station office at stations of Imbaba, Beni Suef, Minya, Asyut, Qena and Aswan

2,813

IW-2 IWT port improvement for Upper Egypt connects roads/ railway smoothly, Asyut and Quena ports port improvement, includes waterway, navigation and lock operation improvement.

1,000


upgrades the present capacity of Asyut Barrage Lock by expansion and improves operation of other locks.

290

IW-4 Waterway Improvement on Cairo - Asyut aims to dredging for safe navigability preventing from sedimentation (width 40m x dredging depth 2m x200km).

650

Note: RD: Road, RW: Railway, L: Logistics, IW: Inland Waterway Transport


A-24

Annex 8: East-West Corridors


A-25

Project Listing: East-West Corridor 1


(mil. LE)

RD-324 Eldaba Albetrol Road connects from Fayoum to Mediterranean sea, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 2,492

RD-325 ALbetrol Beni Mazar Road connects RD-324 to Fayoum, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 1,189

RD-994 Fayoum-Beni Suef Bypass connects from Fayoum to Nile east side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 220

RD-995 Wasta Bridge Connection connects from Fayoum to Nile east side, 2-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 114

RD-997 Helwan-Beni Suef Bridge connects from Fayoum to Nile east side, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Bridge] 306

RD-314 Zafarana Elkoraymat Road (Expressway) creates expressway connection from Fayoum, Helwan to Red Sea (Zafarana), 6-lanes, 100km/h [Upgrade to Expressway]

2,264



(mil. LE)

RD-305 Bahriya Siwa Road connects from Siwa to Nile river for west section, 2-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 2,324

RD-306 Bahriya Minya Road connects from Siwa to Nile river for east section, 2-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 1,295



(mil. LE)

RD-996 Minya Bridge cross the Nile river [New Bridge] 388

RD-303 Upper Egypt East Desert Red Sea Road connects from Asyut to Red Sea (Safaga), 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 5,009

RD-329 Farafra Malwa Road connects from Farafra to Nile river, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 2,675

RD-330 El-Dakhla Assyuit Road connects from Dakhla to Nile river, 4-lanes, 80km/h [New Art. Road] 2,504



(mil. LE)

RD-226 Qena - Safaga Road connects from Qena to Safaga for under GARBLT 5 year plan (2007-2012), 4-lanes, 80km/h [Widening]

750


for tourists from Hurghada to Luxor to save travel time, max.150kph, [New Rail Line]

5,400

RW-409 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Safaga for local passenger and cargo traffic connected to red sea and Quena and Luxur [Rehabilitation]

2,375

RW-408 Rehabilitation of Tracks for Qena - Kharga for passenger, even the paralleled cargo line from Kharga to Qena are existed [Track Improvement] 2,875



(mil. LE)


connects from Aswan to Abou Sembel, RW-313-1 in desert, 6-lanes, 100kh/h [Upgrade to Expressway] 3,073



A-26

4. CORRIDOR RANKING

Corridor Name Average Rank Corridor Rank

Intermodal Transport 13.0 1

Cairo - Alexandria 24.5 2

Mediterranean 37.8 3

Cairo - Suez 39.5 4

Cairo – Damietta/Port Said 41.7 5

Red Sea 46.0 6

Suez Canal Development 46.3 7

Inland Delta 48.3 8

Upper Egypt 51.8 9

Sinai 54.0 10

East - West 69.0 11


Note: Corridor rankings do not mean all projects inclusive of one corridor to be more important than those of other corridor but they only show

relative importance among the recommended eleven corridors.

Relationship Matrix between Project to Corridor

ITC

Cai

ro -

Alex

.

Inla

nd D

elta

Cai

ro-D

amie

tta/

Port

Said

Cai

ro -

Suez

Med

iterra

nean

Sina

i

Upp

er E

gypt

Red

Sea

East

- W

est

Suez

Can

al

Dev

elop

men

t Project-ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RD-300 1 2 6

RD-204 1 2 6

RD-301 1 6

RD-998 1 2

RW-403 1 2

RW-406 1 2

RW-407 1

RW-412 1

RW-420 1

L-1 1

IW-1 1

RW-304 1 2

IW-5

PT-1

PT-2

ITC

PT-3

RD-302 2

RD-315 2

RW-400 2 Cairo - Alex.

RW-402-1 2

Inland Delta RD-999 3


A-27

ITC

Cai

ro -

Alex

.

Inla

nd D

elta

Cai

ro-D

amie

tta/

Port

Said

Cai

ro -

Suez

Med

iterra

nean

Sina

i

Upp

er E

gypt

Red

Sea

East

- W

est

Suez

Can

al

Dev

elop

men

t

Project-ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RD-332 3

RD-304 3

RD-333 3

RD-334 3

RD-318 3

RD-319 3

RD-320 3

RD-200 3 6

RD-214 3

RD-215 3

RD-216 3

RW-301 3

RW-307 3

RW-308 3 11

RW-401 3

RD-308 4 6

RW-313 4

RW-302 4

RW-309 4

RW-310 4

RW-402-2 4

IW-6

PT-4

Cairo-Damietta/Port Said

PT-5

RD-310 5 Cairo - Suez

RW-300 5

RD-323 6

RD-307 6

RD-309 6

RD-316 6

RW-312 6

Mediterranean

RW-410 6 11

RD-311 7

RD-327 7 11 Sinai

RD-328 7

RD-326 8

RD-331 8

RD-312 8

RD-313-1 8

RD-225 8 10

RD-298 8

RD-299 8

RW-999 8

RW-306 8

RW-402-4 8

RW-412-4 8

IW-2 8

IW-3

Upper Egypt

IW-4

RD-321 9 Red Sea

RD-322 9

RD-324 10 East - West

RD-325 10


A-28

ITC

Cai

ro -

Alex

.

Inla

nd D

elta

Cai

ro-D

amie

tta/

Port

Said

Cai

ro -

Suez

Med

iterra

nean

Sina

i

Upp

er E

gypt

Red

Sea

East

- W

est

Suez

Can

al

Dev

elop

men

t

Project-ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RD-994 10

RD-995 10

RD-997 10

RD-314 10

RD-305 10

RD-306 10

RD-996 10

RD-303 10

RD-329 10

RD-330 10

RD-226 10

RW-303 10

RW-409 10

RW-408 10

RD-313-2 10

Suez Canal Development RD-317 11

Documents

FINAL REPORT - JICA · mints – misr national transport study the comprehensive study on the master plan for nationwide transport system in the arab republic of egypt final report