final report Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static ... · Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium analysis ... a static general equilibrium analysis

Universite Laval

Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium analysis

Renato Vargas

Pamela Escobar

Maynor Cabrera

Javier Cabrera

Violeta Hernández

Vivian Guzmán

March 2016

final report

Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium analysis

Abstract

In this study, we used a Computable General Equilibrium model of the Guatemalan economy to

conduct simulations for a) an increase in international food prices; b) a reduction in productivity

due to climate change; c) the effects of drought in agriculture; d) a reduction of transportation

margins; and e) agricultural incentive policies. Of all alternatives, a policy that reduced margins

could have great benefits to the Guatemalan economy in terms of an increase in the level of

production, exports, consumption of food and exports. This scenario would be beneficial in terms

of an increase of GDP (2.9%), consumption (2.9%), exports (2.9% in real terms) and government

consumption (3.1% in real terms). Conversely in another scenario, it is relevant that a reduction in

productivity due to climate change would mean an important drop in the value added of

agriculture for food, agriculture for seed, as well as a slight drop in that of industrial food production

and the service industry. Under this scenario we could expect a fall in real GDP of 1.2%. The

reduction of productivity could mean a reduced fiscal space, and a reduction in government

expenditure because of lower tax revenues. More importantly, due to higher prices and lower

income of households, this scenario could mean that consumption of agricultural goods for each

type of household would be reduced in a relevant manner with great impacts to the food security

aspect of access.

JEL: R15, R22, Q12.

Keywords: Regional Economics Measurement, Computable General Equilibrium, Spatial

Analysis, Natural Resource, Agricultural Employment, Farm Household, Farm Input

Markets,

Authors

Renato Vargas:

Economist, independent

Guatemala City, Guatemala

renovargas [at] gmail [dot] com

Pamela Escobar:

Systems Engineer, independent


pescobarf [at] gmail [dot] com

Maynor Cabrera:

Economist, Fedes.org


maynor.cabrera [at] fedes [dot] org

Javier Cabrera:

Economics undergraduate student


jacava.84 [at] gmail [dot] com

Violeta Hernández:



violetaehernandezc [at] gmail [dot] com

Vivian Guzmán:



vvguzman [at] gmail [dot] com

Acknowledgements

This research work was carried out with financial and scientific support from the Partnership for

Economic Policy (PEP) (www.pep-net.org) with funding from the Department for International

Development (DFID) of the United Kingdom (or UK Aid), and the Government of Canada through

the International Development Research Center (IDRC). The authors are also grateful to Person X

and Person Y for technical support and guidance, as well as to Person Z for valuable comments

and suggestions.

Contents

1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................8

1.1 Context of the study ..........................................................................................................8

1.2 Research questions and objectives .................................................................................. 10

2 Literature review .................................................................................................................. 10

2.1 CGE models for agricultural sector analysis ................................................................... 10

2.2 Regarding food security and agriculture ......................................................................... 11

2.3 Food risk scenarios on food insecurity and main effects ................................................. 12

3 Data .......................................................................................................................................... 13

3.1 Sources of Information .................................................................................................... 13

3.2 Constructing the national social accounting matrix ......................................................... 13

3.3 Activities and Commodity aggregations of Supply and Use tables ................................. 15

3.4 Labor disaggregation....................................................................................................... 16

3.5 Household dissagregation ............................................................................................... 18

3.5.1 Household income ...................................................................................................... 18

3.5.2 Household expenditure ............................................................................................... 20

4 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 22

4.1 The structure of a PEP 1x1 social accounting matrix ...................................................... 22

4.2 Model .............................................................................................................................. 22

5 Application and results ...............................................................................................................0

5.1 Guatemala’s economic structure from the SAM ...............................................................0

5.1.1 Main productive sectors ................................................................................................0

5.1.2 Activities focused on the external sector .......................................................................0

5.1.3 Employment structure and earnings ..............................................................................1

5.1.4 Household income ........................................................................................................2

5.1.5 Household consumption ...............................................................................................3

5.1.6 Margins .........................................................................................................................5

5.2 Results from simulations ...................................................................................................6

5.2.1 Increase in international food prices .............................................................................6

5.2.2 Reduction in productivity due to climate change ..........................................................9

5.2.3 Effects of drought on agriculture ................................................................................ 11

5.2.4 Reduction of margins of transport............................................................................... 13

5.2.5 Agricultural incentive policies .................................................................................... 15

6 Conclusions and policy implications ........................................................................................ 17

7 References ..................................................................................................................................0

8 Annex .........................................................................................................................................0

8.1 Household expenditure detail ............................................................................................0

8.2 Micro SAM Accounts detail .............................................................................................7

List of tables

Table 1 - Technologies that would have the largest global effect on a price reduction and yield increase

in 2050, by crop ............................................................................................................................... 13

Table 2 - Macro SAM ...................................................................................................................... 14

Table 3 – Commodity and Economic Activity Aggregation for the Micro SAM ............................. 15

Table 4 - Labor income – ENCOVI 2011 variables ........................................................................ 16

Table 5 - Participation in activities income by skill level (percentage) ............................................ 17

Table 6 - Activities of the SAM according to the activities included in the survey .......................... 18

Table 7 - Share of each group of household (percentage) ................................................................ 18

Table 8 - Income source – Encovi 2011 variables ............................................................................ 19

Table 9 - Share of income for each household group ....................................................................... 20

Table 10 - Household expenditure in good and services according to household groups (percentage)

......................................................................................................................................................... 21

Table 11 - Basic structure of a sam for pep 1-1 model ..................................................................... 24

Table 12 - Added value per sector (millions of Quetzales and percentage) ........................................0

Table 13 - Exports and imports by commodity (percentage) ..............................................................1

Table 14 - Factorial composition of value added (percentage) ...........................................................2

Table 15 - Distribution of income for each household group (percentage) .........................................3

Table 16 - Income composition for each household group (Percentage) ............................................3

Table 17 - Consumption composition of each household group (percentage) ....................................5

Table 18 – Margin rates .....................................................................................................................6

Table 19 - Exports and imports by product (% change) .....................................................................7

Table 20 - GDP table (% change) .......................................................................................................8

Table 21 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change) .....................8

Table 22 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change) ..........................................9

Table 23 - GDP table (% change) ..................................................................................................... 10

Table 24 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change) ................... 11


Table 26 - Exports and imports by product (% change) ................................................................... 13


Table 28 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change) ........................................ 15


Table 30 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change) ........................................ 16

Table 31 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change) ................... 17

Table 32 - Household expenditure –Encovi 2011 variables ...............................................................0

Table 33 - Activities: table of equivalences........................................................................................7

Table 34 - Products: table of equivalences ....................................................................................... 11

List of figures

Figure 1 - Total aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of increase in world food prices (% change)

...........................................................................................................................................................6

Figure 2 - Aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of decrease of TFP (% change) ........................ 10

Figure 3 - Water use by industry (% total) ....................................................................................... 11

Figure 4 - Change in value added by sector, by simulation scenario ................................................ 12

Figure 5 - Change in total output by sector ...................................................................................... 14

Figure 6 - Change in total output by sector ...................................................................................... 16

1 Introduction

1.1 Context of the study

After considerably reducing the size of planning agencies and their importance in the wake of

structural reforms during the 1990s, Guatemala has recently resumed long term planning with the

participative construction of the National Development Plan K’atun: Our Guatemala 2032

(Conadur/Segeplan, 2014), NDP hereafter. The NDP has four broad components, one of which is

related to environmental and food security aspects. Among the policy priorities identified for this

component, the plan moves for the creation of incentives for agricultural output with cultural

pertinence regarding age, ethnicity, and gender; along with the creation of value chains for that output

and the development of infrastructure to improve agricultural trade.

According to the Living Standards Measurement Survey –LSMS 2011, in 2011, 33.5% of the

employed population of 15 years old and over from Guatemala, were employed in the agricultural

sector (43.6% of men and 16.1% of women). Of the total employed in agriculture, 78.5% lived in

rural areas and 71.3% were below the poverty line. In addition, more than a third of those employed

in this sector (37.1%) were of ages 15 to 24, and 7 out of 10, and had incomplete primary education

or less. For that same year, only 6.8% of those employed in agriculture were formally employed (by

2011, over 70% of the employed population were working in the informal sector).

It is not altogether clear which new concrete actions will be used to comply with the NDP, but the

Secretariat for Planning of the Presidency –SEGEPLAN– has already instructed that existing policies

be aligned to it and that new programs created under their umbrella strongly support NDP priorities.

One such policy is the forest policy and legal framework, which for a decade and a half has

underpinned the widespread National Forest Incentives Program which previously focused on

increasing forest cover for commercial purposes and targeted large landowners. Recent modifications

to the legal framework (under the name PROBOSQUE) allow for smaller landowners with less certain

property regimes to access the program not only for commercial purposes, but for food security,

employment, and energy provision (INAB/PFN, 2013). One of the biggest changes is the introduction

of new incentive purposes such as mixed agro-forest systems (for the simultaneous production of

crops with forests to improve food security) and for energetic uses (fuel wood). Given the wide reach

of this program, It could prove useful for policy to assess the changes to land as an agricultural

production factor that might be introduced at the national level with PROBOSQUE and changes in

crop and forest output that might be brought upon by the changes.

Another policy with far reaching actions within the agricultural sector is the National Irrigation Policy

(MAGA, 2013), which identifies areas in need of irrigation; introduces micro-irrigation systems at

the plot level for small and micro-farmers, develops infrastructure for water provision (regulation,

storage, and transport); and promotes integrated systems of irrigated animal and agricultural output.

This will put 60,000 ha under irrigation in the period 2013-2017. This is certainly a measure that has

both economic and widespread environmental implications.

While there might be an improvement in food security with these actions, a shift towards an increase

in the share of industry for the entire country might become more difficult in the presence of low

price imports, further increasing informality in cities. With these types of incentives, there is the

possibility that investments in the agricultural sector prove too big for large owners to diversify into

finance or industry (Amsden, 2001). Furthermore, environmental impacts, and their effect on

populations, might multiply in an economy already vulnerable to effects of climate change.

Even if some incentive programs to agriculture have been studied in the Central American region

from an impact evaluation perspective (e.g. Iarna-URL/FAUSAC, 2013), it is believed that those

programs are so widespread, with direct and indirect effects in the entire economy and the

environment, that an environmentally extended general equilibrium approach is more suitable, in

order to overcome endogeneity issues (Khandker, et al., 2010).

Nonetheless, applications of macro-micro models for Guatemala have been few. In 2008, Vasquez

applied an integrated macro-micro model, called MAMS (Maquette for simulation of the Millennium

Development Goals -MDG-, described in detail in Lofgren et al., 2013). 1. In 2010, a Cabrera and

colleagues (2010) implemented the Model of Exogenous Shocks and Economic and Social Protection

- MACEPES-2 with interesting results. Their findings are explained in the relevant section below.

Water resources are facing several stresses in terms of quantity and quality. These pressures are

related to human interventions like agriculture and land use change (Llop & Ponce, 2012). According

to Llop & Ponce (2012) CGE and water analysis at national scale had studied a broad type of issues

like water pricing policy, water allocation, water markets and climate change impacts. Under different

approaches and scope of analysis, any shock in water availability would have great implications on

agricultural production and on inequality as we will see in the results section.

The agricultural sector is key to food security and it is important to understand the linkages between

the economy and its various components in a systemic manner. A focus on agricultural and food

security aspects of the System of Environmental and Economic Accounts of Guatemala shows key

insights into these linkages. For example, it is interesting to learn that maize production in Guatemala

depends entirely on rain water for its growth (INE, 2012). This exposes the production of this crop to

considerable risk in terms of climate variability, which contrasts with the fact that after sugar cane

and bananas, maize is the largest production in terms of volume.

A similar argument can be made of beans, which also depend entirely on rain water (INE, 2012).

Beans cover a relevant portion of the Guatemalan diet, and it is interesting to see how canned legumes

are increasingly used by households. This form of consumption of beans is ever more present in urban

kitchens and it might represent a cultural shift that might increase the importance of industrial food

processing in the food chain.

It is also important to note the sheer amount of land used by maize and beans; the staple crops of

Guatemala. Even if there are no land quality considerations in the data (INE, 2012), the low yields of

the lands used for these crops, coupled with lower levels of technical development and no irrigation

provide an explanation to the considerable amounts of land used for their production.

We must recognize the share used by manufacturing industries at the national level. For example, in

the case of maize, only 20% of all used volume had a final destination in manufacturing. This is

consistent with the 80% (adjusted to extract the negative stock variation) that was consumed by

households. It contrasts with the 99% of the supply of unprocessed rice and wheat that were used

almost exclusively by the food processing industries (INE, 2012). This does not mean that households

didn't consume such products. It only means that they got them in their processed versions, such as

1 This study was developed under the Project “Políticas públicas para el desarrollo humano: ¿Cómo lograr los objetivos de

desarrollo del milenio en América latina y el Caribe?” of UNDP, UN/DESA, The World Bank and UN/ECLAC, developed

in 18 countries in Latin America. 2 Thi study was developed under the Project “Implicaciones de la Política Macroeconómica, los Choques Externos, y los Sistemas de Protección Social en la Pobreza, la Desigualdad y la Vulnerabilidad en América Latina y el Caribe”, coordinated

by ECLAC and UN/DESA.

precooked white rice and dehydrated breakfast gruel. For this very reason, the totality of sugar cane

was used by the food processing industry (INE, 2012).

Aside from these exceptions, households did consume large volumes of cultivated products directly,

which is consistent with the traditional market culture still present in most of the country. For

example, they used 95% of beans, 88% of potatoes, 97% of other roots and tubers, 99% of fresh

culinary herbs, 91% of other vegetables and 67% of all fruits, among others (INE, 2012).

These facts frame our simulations appropriately and they allow us to provide an intuition for the

increases and decreases of the results.

1.2 Research questions and objectives

Because rural population have serious social disadvantages in terms of poverty and malnutrition, one

on the main challenges of the economic policy is the creation of jobs in rural areas. With a long history

of strong reliance of the Guatemalan economy in the agricultural sector and lack of creation of quality

jobs, one policy question to answer is if agricultural incentives could create opportunities to reduce

poverty and create inclusive growth. Besides, agricultural incentives could create more stress on use

of natural resources like water, land and forest. Evidence of the SEEA of Guatemala (INE et al., 2013)

shows that forest coverage had an steep decline in last 20 years. So the extension of agricultural land

could have further impacts on the forest cover and water production.

Research questions include:

What are the impacts of widespread agricultural and forest incentive policies on growth and

employment? What can we expect from the share of contribution to GDP of the Agricultural sector given

these incentives?

Can a reduction of margins via infrastructure, for example, break the monopoly power of

trade?

Will a reduction of margins for given crops have an effect on water use according to the

current baseline?

Will subsidies for inputs like fertilizers, irrigation within the farm, have an positive effect on

the contribution to GDP of the Agriculture sector..

2 Literature review

2.1 CGE models for agricultural sector analysis

Arguello et al. (2012) applied an integrated top-down macro-micro CGE and microsimulation

modeling approach to understand the impacts of a large scale agricultural compensation program

(Secure Agricultural Income Program - AIS) for the potential losers of the free trade agreement

between Colombia and the U.S. They assessed the effects of the program both at the macro level

(prices, quantities produced, employment, and real factor return) as well as at the micro level (rural

household income and incidence of poverty) and found that rural poverty would decrease by less than

1 percent, with a similar increase in the poverty gap. They concluded that the present design of the

AIS program seems to have limited capacity to achieve the objectives it was designed for, although

it does appear to boost agricultural productivity and competitiveness, albeit at the expense of small

farmers.

Conversely, applications of CGE models for Guatemala have been few. In 2008, Vasquez applied an

integrated macro-micro model, called MAMS (Maquette for simulation of the Millennium

Development Goals -MDG-, described in detail in Lofgren et al., 2013). 3. In 2010, Cabrera and

colleagues (2010) implemented the Model of Exogenous Shocks and Economic and Social Protection

- MACEPES-4 with interesting results. with the application of micro-simulations5, estimated the

poverty impact of external shocks. The main external shocks identified in this study were, a fall in

international prices of major exports and a drop in remittances. In both cases they observed a

reduction in economic growth and increased poverty levels.

Water resources are facing several stresses in terms of quantity and quality. These pressures are

related to human interventions like agriculture and land use change (Ponce et. Al., 2012). According

to Ponce, et al (2012) CGE and water analysis at national scale had studied a broad type of issues like

water pricing policy, water allocation, water markets and climate change impacts. Under different

approach and scope of analysis, any shock in water availability will have great implications for

agricultural production.

Because rural population have serious social disadvantages in terms of poverty and malnutrition, one

on the main challenges of the economic policy is the creation of jobs in rural areas. With a long history

of strong reliance of the Guatemalan economy in the agricultural sector and lack of creation of quality

jobs, one policy question to answer is if improvements to the agricultural sector could create

opportunities to reduce poverty and create inclusive growth. On the other hand, agricultural

incentives could create more stress on use of natural resources like water, land and forest. Evidence

of the SEEA of Guatemala (INE et al., 2013) shows that forest coverage had a steep decline in last

20 years. So the extension of agricultural land could have further impacts on the forest cover and

water production.

2.2 Regarding food security and agriculture

Low- and middle-income countries have been under the spotlight due to the prevalence of food

insecurity. As a result, there has been a global effort to reduce malnourishment as expressed by the

Millennium Development Goals that were set to be achieved in 2015. By the end of that year, the

United Nations Organization acknowledged that “the proportion of undernourished people in the

developing regions has fallen by almost half since 1990, from 23.3 per cent in 1990–1992 to 12.9 per

cent in 2014–2016” (United Nations, 2015).

However, the results differ widely by region and country. For instance, Latin America is one of the

regions that reached the target of halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. Among

the region, Nicaragua and Peru showed the greatest improvement, while Guatemala was the only

country to show no progress on eradicating hunger (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2015). By

2015, Guatemala still had 15.6 per cent of its population living below minimum dietary levels (in

1991, this rate was 14.9 per cent according to the United Nations, 2016). Therefore, efforts to reduce

hunger must continue.

3 This study was developed under the Project “Políticas públicas para el desarrollo humano: ¿Cómo lograr los objetivos de desarrollo del milenio en América latina y el Caribe?” of UNDP, UN/DESA, The World Bank and UN/ECLAC, developed

in 18 countries in Latin America. 4 Thi study was developed under the Project “Implicaciones de la Política Macroeconómica, los Choques Externos, y los

Sistemas de Protección Social en la Pobreza, la Desigualdad y la Vulnerabilidad en América Latina y el Caribe”, coordinated by ECLAC and UN/DESA. 5 Vos et al. (2010).

There are several factors that are making Guatemala fall behind globaly. For example, maize and

beans, the staple crops behind the Guatemalan diet have shown low agricultural yields and absolutely

no use of artificial irrigation (INE, 2012), influenced not only by the lack of technology among the

small-scale farmers, but also because of adverse climate conditions6. At the same time, the country

depends on the import of agricultural goods7 which means that the country has recently experienced

rising food import prices and exports that cannot keep up. For those reasons, Yu, You, & Fan (2010)

consider it to be a low food-secure country.

More recently, it has been argued that the most food-insecure countries “frequently have higher

political stability risk and corruption levels, alongside weaker institutions that fail to provide

appropriate government regulation and oversight” (E.I.U., 2014). Guatemala is one of the countries

that falls into this description and this may undermine the capabilities to reach its food policies’

objectives.

2.3 Food risk scenarios on food insecurity and main effects

Conforti (2011) identifies that some of main long term drivers of change in food systems are:

Growth of agricultural products demand: according to Alexandratos & Bruinsma (2012), the

global demand for agricultural products is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent between

2005/2007 to 2050. This growth is influenced by the growth of the global population, increases in per

capita income, and diet changes that include more livestock products. Altogether, these factors are

expected to create pressure on natural resources, and according to the IFPRI IMPACT model, prices

for maize, rice, and wheat would increase by 104, 79, and 88 per cent, respectively by 2050

(Rosegrant, et al., 2014).

A price increase on these vital products will impact countries like Guatemala, as the import shares of

these products are high. In fact, from past events, Torero & Robles (2010) have estimated that a 10

per cent rise in food prices would increase the national poverty rate in 0.9 percentual points, mainly

affecting urban households.

Unequal yield growth and agricultural productivity: a decrease of agriculture yields in developing

countries is expected, but developed countries will be better off. Hence, some countries will be in

need to import food from other markets to meet their demand (Conforti, 2011).

Although, these countries could encourage technological development and adoption to improve the

agricultural yields, as it might be the main factor to boost agricultural growth.

Climate change: Conforti mentions that climate change will bring not only changes in long term

temperature means, but also changes in the “precipitation and even atmospheric carbon content that

affect crop growth potential”.

Climate is expected to have large implications for Guatemala. For instance, under certain climate

conditions forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in 2030, the maize yields

could vary between -6.7 and -3.8 per cent, those of the bean could vary from -6.9 to 1.5 per cent, and

6 Guatemala occupies the tenth position in the Global Climate Risk Index 2016, which means that it is one of the countries

that has suffered the most from extreme weather events between 1995 and 2014 (Kreft, Eckstein, Dorsch, & Fischer, 2015). 7 In 2010, the supply of wheat, rice and maize came from import flows (99.7%, 69.5% and 21.3% of total offer, respectively).

the rice yields could vary between -10.4 and -7.5 percent (Comisión Económica para América Latina

y El Caribe, 2013).

Technology adoption: At a global level, there is enough food for everyone to be nourished (World

Food Programme, 2011), as a result of technological progress. In the following years, the agricultural

activity is expected to become more dependent on technology adoption due to the challenges derived

from climate change (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2016).

There are several technology choices for agriculture. Some of them, in spite of increasing agricultural

productivity, might have further implications on the use of water, the quality of land and energy

resources (for example, genetic modification, pesticides, and fertilizers). However, Rosegrant, et al.

(2014) simulated the results in food and water supply, demand, trade and prices over forty years for

eleven selected technologies. The authors conclude that the following technologies would have the

strongest price-reduction and yield impacts, considering the future weather conditons. These results

could be assesed for each country’s reality.

Table 1 - Technologies that would have the largest global effect on a price reduction and yield increase

in 2050, by crop

Maize Rice Wheat

Price reduction -Heat tolerant varieties

-No-till

-Nitrogen-use efficiency

-Precision agriculture

-No-till

-Heat tolerant varieties

-Precision agriculture Adapted from Rosegrant, et al. 2014.

From a four-pillar perspective, efforts for fighting hunger should not only focus on increasing food

availability, but also on reducing food waste, assuring market competitiveness, and assuring the safety

and quality of food.

3 Data

3.1 Sources of Information

The SAM was constructed using three sources of information: SAM 2011 (Escobar, 2015), Supply

and Use Tables (SUT) from the Central Bank of Guatemala for the year 2011, the relative structure

of remunerations of capital and land found on the GTAP model, and the Life Standards Measurement

Survey (Encovi) from the year 2011 (INE, 2012). Since the SAM for year 2011 (Escobar, 2011) that

we had as a starting point does not conform to the requirements of the PEP 1-1 model and also does

not have the necessary degree of disaggregation of activities, commodities and households to analyze

impacts of agricultural incentive policies on socioeconomic and environmental variables in

Guatemala, the National Accounts’ SUT for the year 2011 were used to disaggregate agricultural

activities and commodities, as well as activities with high demand of water. In order to estimate the

relative structure of factor remunerations by activity, transfers to households, and consumption by

household, the household survey was used to derive standard coefficients.

3.2 Constructing the national social accounting matrix

Six steps were taken for the construction of a suitable SAM Guatemala 2011 for this study. First, we

compiled a Macro SAM, rearranging information from SAM 2011 into an aggregated format derived

from an analytical perspective of the System of Environmental and Economic Accounts for

Agriculture, Forestry, and fisheries, which has a strong emphasis on food security issues. Second, we

disaggregated the labor factor using information from the Household Survey. Next, we used data from

GTAP to split the capital factor between capital and land. Since it was necessary to have a specific

remuneration for the land factor, we used the relative structure from GTAP8. Fourth, we rearranged

the SUT information in order to disaggregate activities in SAM. Fifth, using household survey

estimates we opened household information. Finally, we opened information for commodities.

The first step was to construct a Macro SAM using information from Escobar’s SAM (2011). Also,

we identified accounts that could be disaggregated using supply and use tables from the central bank

of Guatemala (BANGUAT). We show these cells in light-purple color in the next table.

Table 2 - Macro SAM

Source: Own construction.

Then we disaggregated the labor factor between skilled (L-SKL) and unskilled (L-UNS)9 labor.

Because Escobar’s SAM has four different labor factors (wage skilled, non-wages skilled, wage

unskilled, non-wag) we used the relative structure to estimate L-SKL and L-UNS.

As a provisional measure, we applied the G-TAP relative structure on remunerations on Capital and

Land10. Furthermore, we split gross operating surplus by activity11. Based on information from a

processed SUT12, we proceded to divide remunerations of labor, production, and intermediate

consumption by activity. Because we don’t have disaggregation of transfers (non-tax) from activities

to government and taxes on activities, we estimated those as a residual.

Using the Life Standards Household Survey, we split the accounts to match our household structure.

In this exercise we have four types of households: rural poor, rural non-poor, urban poor and urban

non-poor. Poverty was determined using the official poverty line of 201113 and, using information

from the household survey, we were able to estimate labor income, consumption and most transfers14

according to type of household. Savings were estimated as a residual from factor income, as well as

transfers from government and the rest of the world, minus transfers to Government, and transfers to

the rest of the world and consumption.

8 We are performing an alternate estimation of remuneration of land factor, using household survey Encovi. 9 Definition of skilled and unskilled 10 See G-TAP Model. 11 See activities included in SAM in annex. 12 Using an R script we collapsed activites from SUT from Banguat (2014) to create an Ad-hoc SUT. 13 See Life Standards Measurement Survey, INE (2011). 14 Transfers from Government and Rest of the world

L K AG AG AG AG AG AG AG J I OTH OTH

LAB CAP HH GVT ROW TI TM TD TFAC A C INV VSTK TOTAL

L LAB 871 191,640 192,511

K CAP 502 153,756 154,259

AG HH 181,509 142,848 11,164 38,649 374,170

AG GVT - 50 2,721 2,200 20,829 2,524 14,307 10,921 2,261 55,814

AG ROW 82 11,360 2,000 2,203 138,605 154,250

AG TI - - 20,829 20,829

AG TM - - - 2,524 2,524

AG TD - - 14,307 14,307

AG TFAC 10,921 - 10,921

J A 594,170 594,170

I C 316,528 37,803 98,783 246,512 95,388 54,910 1,592 851,517

OTH INV 38,614 4,643 13,245 56,502

OTH VSTK 1,592 1,592

TOTAL 192,511 154,259 374,170 55,814 154,250 20,829 2,524 14,307 10,921 594,170 851,517 56,502 1,592

Finally, using data from the household survey we created a split by commodity accounts. These

accounts include consumption by household. Using the processed SUT we included in the SAM all

exports by commodity, intermediate consumption, supply, investment, and margins of trade and

transport. To close the SAM, we estimated residually the change in inventories from two activities

(beverages and other industries).

3.3 Activities and Commodity aggregations of Supply and Use tables

In order to improve the analytical potential of the SAM, we turned to the recently drafted manual for

the System of Environmental and Economic Accounts for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (FAO,

n/d), which has a strong emphasis on food security issues. The logic behind the aggregation of

economic sectors and commodities proposed by the manual implies that there are some crops that are

used by some industries mainly for animal feed and other industries as seed. Some manufacturing

industries then use agricultural products as inputs in the production of food for humans and animals.

Some of these are used by food services, such as hotels, restaurants and bars as their own inputs, and

other are consumed directly by households (or final demand in general). Hence, it seemed appropriate

to aggregate our industries in categories which reflected that consumption process, because our study

seeks to explore food security issues. It might seem unintuitive to group output activities according

to their intermediate use of commodities, rather than their object of production, but in this manner the

food security implications of policies are easier to track.

The table below describes the aggregation, which is detailed for 123 activities and 226 products in

the Annex, as well as transactions necessary in order to bring producer’s prices to market prices. This

reaggregation allowed for the creation of an ad-hoc supply and use table for this study, which is

available upon request.

Table 3 – Commodity and Economic Activity Aggregation for the Micro SAM

Industries and Transactions Commodities

T01A01 Agricultural Industries for seed R01 Coffee

T01A02 Agricultural Industries for feed R02 Bananas

T01A03 Other agriculture R03 Maize

T01A04 Other primary industries R04 Beans

T01A05 Food industry R05 Cereals and legumes

T01A06 Other manufactures R06 Roots and tubers

T01A07 Water distribution R07 Vegetables

T01A08 Other services R08 Fruits

T02A09 Imports of goods R09 Other crops, live plants, flowers and their seeds

T03A09 Imports of services R10 Milk

T04A09 CIF/FOB adjustment on imports R11 Eggs

T05A09 VAT R12 Other animal products including live animals

T06A09 Tariffs exc. VAT on imports R13 Fuel wood

T07A09 Taxes on products, exc. VAT and Tariffs R14 Other forestry products

T08A09 Subsidies on products R15 Fish and other fisheries products

T09A09 Trade margins R16 Minerals

T10A09 Transportation margins R17 Meat products

T11A09 Electricity, gas, water R18 Prepared or canned fish

T12A09 Exports of goods R19 Canned legumes

T13A09 Exports of services R20 Animal and vegetal oils and fats

T14A09 Household final consumption R21 Mill products

T15A09 NFPI final consumption R22 Animal foods

T16A09 Individual gov final consumption R23 Bakery products

T17A09 Collective gov final consumption R24 Sugars

T18A09 Gross capital formation R25 Macaroons and noodles

T19A09 Stock variation R26 Dairy products

T20A09 Valuable objects R27 Other food products

R28 Beverages

R29 Other manufactured products

R30 Electricity, gas, and water

R31 Lodging, food service

R32 Other wholesale, retail, and services Source : Author with information from BANGUAT (2011).

3.4 Labor disaggregation

Labor disaggregation was developed with information from the Life Standards Measurement Survey

(ENCOVI) from the year 2011. The labor factor is disaggregated in two categories, skilled and

unskilled employees. Skilled workers are those with 9 years of schooling or more.

Labor income was calculated from the sum of the monetary and non-monetary earnings. Monetary

income contains the entry of the first and second employment of a salaried worker (government

employee, private employee, laborer or pawn and domestic employee) and those from independent

workers (employer and self-employed). The following table details each of the relevant variables in

the survey included for the calculation of labor income, and the frequency with which the income is

received.

Table 4 - Labor income – ENCOVI 2011 variables

Labor

income

Monetary

labor

income

Income of

employees

Income of first

job

Salary (monthly)- p10b08

Extra hours (mensual)- p10b09a p10b09b

p10b09c

Commissions, tips (monthly)- p10b10b

Bonus 14 (annual) - p10b11b

Bonus (annual)- p10b12b

Deferred (annual)- p10b13b

Vacation bonus (annual)- p10b14b

Productivity bonus (annual) - p10b15b

Work during holiday period (anual) -

p10b18b

Income of

second job

Salary (monthly)- p10c05

Extra hours, comissions and tips

(monthly) - p10c06b p10c06c

Deferred, vacation bonus, productivity

bonus (anual) - p10c10b

Bonus (annual) - p10c09b

Income of

independent

workers

Income of first

job

Monthly gain (agricultural and non-

agricultural)- p10b22/ p10b23

Income of

second job

Monthly gain (agricultural and non-

agricultural) - p10c11/p10c12

Non-

monetary

labor

income

Non-monetary income of first

job

Food allowance (monthly)- p10b19

Housing payment (monthly)- p10b20b

Transport (monthly) - p10b21b

Clothing (annual) - p10b16b

Non-monetary income of second

job

Food and footwear (monthly) - p10c07b

Housing and transport (monthly) -

p10c08b Source: author with information from Encovi 2011.

Table 5 presents the relative structure of revenues by sector and level of qualifications. The sectors

included in the table correspond to the activities of the SAM. In general, it can be seen that 52.8% of

revenues correspond to skilled workers. However, by activity the proportions are different. For

activities related to agricultural production, both for seed and for food, 90.1% of incomes corresponds

to unskilled workers and 9.9% to skilled workers. For this outcome, it is important to note that over

90% of the population engaged in agricultural production, is unskilled.

Table 5 - Participation in activities income by skill level (percentage)

Activities Skilled Unskilled

Total 52.8 47.2

Agricultural production for seed 9.9 90.1

Agricultural production for food 9.9 90.1

Other agricultural production 10.3 89.7

Other primaries 21.9 78.1

Food industry 58.0 42.0

Other manufacturing industries 43.2 56.8

Water distribution 57.1 42.9

Other services 63.5 36.5

Source: with information from Encovi 2011.

For activities related to industry and services, the proportions of earnings for skilled and unskilled

employees is different. For the food industry, 58% of income is for skilled employees, while for other

industries the proportion of skilled income is less (43.2%). For service activities, is greater the

proportion of income that corresponds to skilled labor.

Table 6 shows the detail of the sectors included in each of the activities of the SAM needed to estimate

what proportion of income corresponds to skilled and unskilled labor. Because the activities in the

survey are disaggregated only at two digits according to the ISIC rev 3 (International Standard

Industrial Classification of All Economic activities, Rev. 3), it was necessary to include more than

once the same activity of agriculture, hunting and related service for the agricultural production for

food and seed.

Table 6 - Activities of the SAM according to the activities included in the survey

Activities Activities in the survey according to the ISIC rev 3.

Agricultural production for seed Agriculture, hunting and related service activities

Grow Coffee

Agricultural production for food Agriculture, hunting and related service activities

Grow Coffee

Fishing, operation of fish hatcheries and fish farms; service

activities incidental to fishing

Other agricultural production Agriculture, hunting and related service activities

Forestry, logging and related service activities

Grow Coffee

Other primaries Mining and quarrying

Food industry Manufacture of food products and beverages

Other manufacturing industries Rest of manufacturing

Water distribution Collection, purification and distribution of water

Other services Rest of services

Source: with information from Encovi 2011 and ISIC rev 3.

3.5 Household dissagregation

Since the aim of the study is to measure the impact on poverty, for this exercise we disaggregated

into four representative household groups, by poverty level and by urban/rural areas. Households that

do not reach to cover the minimum cost necessary to meet the food and non-food needs are considered

poor households, according to the official estimation of poverty for Guatemala. For the definition of

urban areas the survey uses the same of the latest census of population and housing of 2002. The table

below (Table 7) shows the proportion of each group of household.

Table 7 - Share of each group of household (percentage)

Household group Percentage

Urban poor 16.6

Rural poor 36.5

Urban non-poor 31.8

Rural non-poor 15.0


3.5.1 Household income

For each representative household group, income is disaggregated according to the source of income

and the expenditure for each commodity. For all income components, the annual value is obtained by

multiplying by 12 the income received on a monthly basis, and by four income received during the

last three months. As already mentioned, the labor income includes labor income by skilled and

unskilled worker (see detail of the variables in Table 1). Skilled workers are those aged 15 or more,

with 9 years of schooling or more.

Capital income include rental income of rooms, housing, machinery, land, etc., interest and stock

dividends. It does not include imputed rent. Government transfers to households, include income from

benefits welfare programs15, the income on account of retirement or pension and the money received

for scholarships and/or school transport subsidy.

The money received from remittances from people living abroad are the transfers received from the

rest of the world. The income from the land was estimated from the sale or lease of land for

agricultural use in the past twelve months. The following table shows the survey variables

corresponding to each type of income.

Table 8 - Income source – Encovi 2011 variables

Capital

income Income

Rents (quaterly) - p11a01b

Interest (quaterly) - p11a02b

Stock dividends (quaterly) - p11a03b

Govermen

t transfers

Benefits of social assistance

programs

Primer beneficio (monthly estimation) - p03c04

Segundo beneficio (monthly estimation)- p03c08

Tercer beneficio (monthly estimation)- p03c12

Transfers Becas por estudio (quaterly) - p11a07b

Jubilación o pensión (quaterly) p11a04b

Transfers

from the

rest of the

world

Remittances Remittances (quaterly) - p11a06b

Land

income

Sale or lease of land during the

past 12 months

Lease of land for agricultural use - p14a06

Sale of land for agricultural use - p14a08


Table 9 shows the relative structure of income, according to the source of income, for each household

group. It can be seen that the largest share of skilled labor income corresponds to non-poor urban

households, just as capital incomes. Importantly, government transfers are aimed primarily at non-

poor urban households, because pensions and retirement income are included. Transfers from the rest

of the world are mainly aimed to the non-poor, urban and rural households. The land income,

corresponds most to the non-poor rural households.

15 The benefits of social assistance programs include the estimation of how much people would pay if they had to buy the

benefit provided by an institution of the Government.

Table 9 - Share of income for each household group

Percentage

Source of income Urban poor Rural poor Urban non-

poor

Rural non-

poor

Labor income 9.9 14.1 61.5 14.4

Skilled 4.9 2.7 83.4 9.0

Non-skilled 15.6 26.9 36.9 20.6

Capital income 3.4 0.2 95.3 1.2

Government transfers 9.3 24.8 54.3 11.6

Transfers from the rest of the world 6.5 16.5 47.8 29.2

Land income 21.4 20.1 18.2 40.4 Source: with information of Encovi 2011.

3.5.2 Household expenditure

Household expenditure on goods and services include the spending on food, spending on goods and

services performed last week, last month and the last 12 months. Spending on energy sources used

by the household and media. Also it’s included the spending on transport and household services.

Table 32 in the Annex shows the expenses on good and services and the corresponding variables in

the household survey. Depending on the frequency with which the expenditure was incurred, the sum

of the annual value is calculated by multiplying the cost of last week by 52, plus the last month by

12, plus the cost of the last 12 months.

Detailed expenditure on goods and services by household group is included in Table 10. It can be

seen that in general the consumption of urban non-poor households is greater in most goods and

services. The consumption of poor rural households is higher in some specific products such as corn,

forestry and some baked goods. The consumption of urban poor households is low in most products,

in part because they represent a smaller proportion, as well as non-poor rural households

Table 10 - Household expenditure in good and services according to household groups (percentage)

No. Commodities Urban poor Rural poor Urban non-

poor

Rural non-

poor

Total 10.0 19.2 52.3 18.4

1 Banano 10.5 21.4 49.4 18.7

2 Café 13.4 26.3 42.8 17.5

3 Maiz 14.9 50.5 13.1 21.6

4 Frijoles 14.4 35.3 31.4 18.9

5 Cereales y legumbres 13.4 25.8 41.8 19.0

6 Raíces y tubérculos 12.6 24.9 41.8 20.7

7 Verduras 11.5 22.3 46.6 19.5

8 Frutas 9.0 15.2 57.2 18.6

9 Plantas vivas, flores y capullos

cortados; semillas de flores y

frutos; semillas de vegetales

3.1 2.0 82.7 12.1

10 Otros productos animales 11.6 19.3 51.3 17.8

11 Productos de la silvicultura y

extracción de madera

16.2 45.4 16.1 22.3

12 Pescado y otros productos de la

pesca

6.6 16.5 53.6 23.3

13 Otros minerales 11.7 23.8 47.2 17.3

14 Carne y prodcutos de la carne 11.2 17.6 52.7 18.6

15 Pescado preparado o en conserva 6.3 13.4 59.6 20.6

16 Legumbres preparadas o en

conserva; jugos de frutas y de

legumbres y frutas preparadas o en

conserva

6.7 10.6 61.9 20.7

17 Aceites y grasas animales y

vegetales

12.4 22.5 45.9 19.2

18 Productos de molineria 11.3 31.5 35.1 22.0

19 Preparados utilizados para la

alimentación de animales

4.8 20.8 52.4 21.9

20 Productos de panaderia 13.9 32.1 35.0 19.1

21 Azucar 14.2 32.8 33.7 19.3

22 Macarrones, fideos y productos

farináceos análogos

13.3 25.1 42.3 19.2

23 Productos lacteos 8.5 10.0 64.2 17.4

24 Productos alimenticios n.c.p. 10.4 16.5 53.4 19.7

25 Bebidas alcohólicas y no

alcohólicas

7.9 12.3 61.9 17.9

26 Otras Industrias 8.2 12.6 60.5 18.7

27 Electricidad y agua 10.5 12.2 61.9 15.5

28 Alojamiento; servicios de

suministro de comidas y bebidas

3.4 4.6 75.3 16.7

29 Otros servicios 6.5 6.9 71.0 15.6


4 Methodology

4.1 The structure of a PEP 1x1 social accounting matrix

A SAM is a representation of the economy. Each cell in the matrix represents, by convention, a flow

of funds from a column account to a row account (Breisinger, Thomas and Thurlow, 2010). The

accounting principle of double-entry requires that for each account in the SAM, total revenue or row

total equals total expenditure, i.e. column total (Morley, Piñeiro y Flores, 2008). Table 1 shows an

aggregate SAM with an explanation instead of numbers with an adapted SAM for PEP 1-1 Model.

In the SAM for the PEP 1-1 structure there are six groups of accounts. It includes a set of factors of

production: labor and capital. It then features a group of agents that include household, government,

enterprises, rest of the world and taxes. Also included are various economic activities, and

accordingly, a set of commodities and entries for trade and transportation margins. The remaining

accounts in the SAM include investment and saving.

The PEP 1-1 model includes a set for “enterprises”, but since we did not have access to information

on transfers between enterprises and households, we chose not to include them. Also, the PEP 1-1

SAM has a section on exports. However, since we don’t have information to distinguish between

domestic and export production, we decided to include both of these cathegories with commodities.

4.2 Model

This version of PEP 1-1 Model has extensions made by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming) that

include specification of closures, number of employees by economic activity, definition of

simulations of shocks and policy scenarios and resource water. Closure specification includes option

to specify mobile capital or sector specific; clearing variable in government closure could be

endogenous government savings, endogenous government consumption, endogenous direct tax on

households or endogenous indirect tax on commodities; closure of rest of the world could be by real

exchange rate adjustment or foreign savings; and savings-investment closure could be using fixed or

flexible investment. To take into consideration different remunerations of labor by economic activity,

in this extension was included the numbers of workers, to calculate a factor of wage differences across

all industries. Third, in this version was included an excel file to simulate different shocks or policy

scenarios, like increase in labor supply, changes in world price of exports and imports, change in

capital stock, changes in government consumption, decrease in taxes, subsidies on capital, decrease

in margins and changes in total factor productivity. Finally, this extension of the model includes water

as an economic factor whose price is zero if supply is greater than demand, but in the opposite

scenario, the model estimates a price for this scarce natural resource, simulating the existence of

market of water or internalizing the cost of provide water to economic activities.

It is important to explain what kind of macroeconomic closures we choose for this analysis. For export

demand we assume that Guatemala is always a small country or price taker in international markets,

and the external sector closure we suppose that we have limits to international finance and the

adjustment hast to be done via real exchange rate. We assume also that capital is mobile. Government

will adjust their consumption to maintain a level of savings, to incorporate costs of fiscal revenues

reduction, in a scenario where is very difficult to pass a tax reform. Finally, we assume that real

investment is fixed and savings has to be adjusted to maintain the same level of real gross fixed capital

formation.

Elasticities of consumption were estimated using micro-data of Encovi 2011. We use elasticities of

production close to those provided by the model and for value added we use those for GTAP

(Narayan, Badri, Aguiar and McDougall, 2012). Finally, for Armington and CET elasticities we use

estimations for similar economies to Guatemala, like Ecuador, Mexico and Filipinas, that were

compiled by Annabi, N., J. Cockburn and B. Decaluwé (2006)16.

16 See annex for detail and sensitivity analysis.

Table 11 - Basic structure of a sam for pep 1-1 model

Factors Households Enterprises Government Rest of

The world

Activities Commodities Investment Total

Factors Value Added Factor

Income

Households Labor income to

households

Distributed

Profits and

Rental income To households

Transfer

to

households

Transfers

To

Households From RoW

Household

Income

Enterprises Profit and Rental Income to

enterprises

Transfer To

Enterprises

Profits of Guatemalan

FDI

Enterprise Income

Government Direct

household

Taxes

Enterprise

Taxes

Govenrnment

Transfers to

RoW

Transfers to

Government

From RoW

Sales tax,

import tariffs

Government

Income

Rest of the world Profits of

foreign

Enterprises in Guatemala

Imports Foreign

Exchange

Outflow

Activities Marketed outputs

Activity Income

Commodities Private Consumption

Government Consumption

Exports Intermediate inputs

Invesment, Change in

Stocks

Total Demand

Investment/Savings Household

Savings

Enterprise

savings

Government

Savings

Foreign

Savings

Savings

Total Factor

expenditures

Household

Expenditures

Enterprise

Expenditures

Government

Expenditures

Foreign

Exchang

InFlow

Activity

Expenditures

Total Supply Investment

Source: adapted from Morley, Piñeiro y Flores (2008)

5 Application and results

5.1 Guatemala’s economic structure from the SAM

In this first section, we find important to describe the structure of the Guatemalan economy that can be

read from the constructed Social Accounting Matrix. This allows us to understand the impacts of the

various shocks that we have conducted in light of the real features of the Guatemalan economy.

5.1.1 Main productive sectors

The SAM shows that services generate the most value added for the economy, with 65.1% of the total.

Industry constitutes 20% of the remaining value added, out of which over 50% is related to the food

processing industry. Agricultural activities account for 11.9% of the added value and, of that percentage,

the majority is represented by agricultural production for seed, with 8.7%, followed by 2.1% in

agricultural food production and the remaining 1.1% in others. Activities under “other primary17”

industries represent 3.0% of the total value added.

Table 12 - Added value per sector (millions of Quetzales and percentage)

Sectors VA %

Agricultural production for seed 29,906.3 8.7

Agricultural production for feed 7,268.9 2.1

Other agricultural production 3,831.4 1.1

Other primary 10,505.5 3.0

Food industry 36,714.7 10.6

Other manufacturing industries 32,190.9 9.3

Other services 224,979.1 65.1

Total 345,396.8 100.0

Source: Social Accounting Matrix for Guatemala, 2011.

5.1.2 Activities focused on the external sector

Most of the exports are food products (36.1%), other industries at 15.4%, and other forestry products

with 9.9% of the exports. On the agricultural side, coffee and bananas are 9.2% and 3.7% of the exports,

followed by vegetables at 3.8% and fruits at 1.8%. The export percentage column in Table 13 below

shows that 68% of the coffee is exported, and that number is 40.2% for bananas, 79% for other animal

products, 65.8% for prepared or preserved fish, 56% for preparation used in animal feeding, and 55.9%

for food products.

On the imports side, the “Other Industries” category accounts for 80.2%, and “Other Services” accounts

for 6.3%. Agricultural products account for less than 5%, with maize at 1.3%. Most of national

consumption of cereals, at 67.8%, is imported. The “Other Industries” category shows 50.5% is

17 Other primary industries include extractive industries like mining and oil extraction.

imported, and 43.2% is imported for animal and vegetable oils and fats. Due to the importance of maize

in the Guatemalan diet, it’s important to emphasize that 15.2% of the national consumption is imported.

Table 13 - Exports and imports by commodity (percentage)

Commodities Exports % Export

production Imports % Imports

c-coff 9.2 68.0 0.0 0.0

c-bana 3.7 40.2 0.0 0.1

c-maiz 0.1 0.2 1.3 15.2

c-bean 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.7

c-cerl 0.0 0.2 1.2 67.8

c-rotu 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.5

c-vege 3.8 8.1 0.0 0.3

c-frui 1.8 16.0 0.3 6.5

c-plan 1.2 13.7 0.7 11.9

c-milk 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0

c-eggs 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.1

c-oanp 3.4 79.0 0.0 0.0

c-lena 0.6 10.2 0.0 0.0

c-otfr 9.9 42.5 0.2 1.1

c-fish 0.4 23.1 0.1 10.9

c-otmi 0.3 4.8 0.7 23.5

c-meat 0.8 3.7 0.7 5.5

c-fisp 2.7 65.8 0.2 9.5

c-vegp 0.3 11.7 0.6 31.9

c-oilp 0.3 4.3 1.9 43.2

c-molp 0.6 2.8 0.8 7.1

c-anip 5.5 56.0 0.2 4.1

c-brea 0.2 0.6 0.5 2.5

c-suga 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.1

c-maca 2.1 43.5 0.1 2.6

c-lact 0.9 6.9 0.8 11.8

c-oali 36.1 55.9 2.2 6.6

c-bebi 0.2 4.0 0.3 8.7

c-inot 15.4 6.9 80.2 50.5

c-elwa 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9

c-reho 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

c-seot 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.7 Source: Social Accounting Matrix for Guatemala, 2011.

Note: Commodities: coff=coffee, bana=bananas, maiz=maize, bean=beans, cerl=cereals and legums, rotu= roots and tubers,

vege=vegetables, frui=fruits, plan=living plants; cut flowers and flower buds; flower seeds and fruit seeds; vegetable seeds, milk=milk, egss=egss, oanp=other animal products, lena=firewood, otfr=other forestry and logging products, fish=fish and

fishery products, otmi=other minerals, meat= meat and meat products, fisp=fish prepared or preserved, vegp=prepared and

preserved vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable juices prepared and preserved, oilp=Animal and vegetable oils and fats,

molp=grain mill products, anip=preparation used in animal feeding, brea=bakery products, suga=sugar, maca=macaroni, noodles and similar farinaceous products, lact= dairy products, oali=food products n.e.c, bebi=alcoholic and non-alcoholic

beverages, inot=other industries, elwa=water and electricity, reho=lodging; food and beverage serving services, seot=other

services.

5.1.3 Employment structure and earnings

Table 14 below shows that 55.5% of the value added is allocated to labor (29.1% skilled and 26.4%

unskilled), 41.9% to capital, 2% to land and 0.6% to natural resources. When looking at the details, over

58% of the participation across all agricultural activities is unskilled labor, followed to a much smaller

degree by capital and land. For other primaries, the participation of capital represents 48.7% of added

value, unskilled labor, 25.2%, natural resources, 19% and skilled labor, less than 10%.

On the food industry sector, the majority of the added value is allocated to skilled labor, at 37.4%, with

capital following closely at 35.5%, and lastly by unskilled labor at 27%. On other services sector, capital

is the largest percentage of the added value at 47%, followed by skilled labor at 33.7% and unskilled

labor at 19.4%.

Table 14 - Factorial composition of value added (percentage)

Sectors Labor

Capital Land Natural

resources Total

Skilled Unskilled

Agricultural production for seed 6.8 61.7 14.9 16.6 0.0 100

Agricultural production for food 6.5 59.4 16.1 18.0 0.0 100

Other agricultural production 6.8 58.9 16.2 18.2 0.0 100

Other primary 7.1 25.2 48.7 0.0 19.0 100

Food industry 37.4 27.0 35.5 0.0 0.0 100

Other manufacturing industries 23.4 30.8 45.8 0.0 0.0 100

Other services 33.7 19.4 47.0 0.0 0.0 100

Total 29.1 26.4 41.9 2.0 0.6 100


5.1.4 Household income

Non-poor households in urban areas account for 71.1% of the total income, while non-poor households

in rural areas account for 11.6%. The remaining 17.3% of the total income is accounted by poor

households, 9.8% in rural areas and 7.5% in urban areas.

Table 4 shows the distribution of income for each household group. It’s important to highlight that most

of the labor income of skilled workers corresponds to non-poor households in urban areas (83.4%), and

very little corresponds to non-poor rural households (9.0%). However, you can see that unskilled labor

is distributed across all household groups, especially non-poor urban ones.

For the capital income category, 95.3% corresponds to non-poor urban households, 3.4% to poor urban

households, and less than 2% to households in rural areas. More than 50% of land income corresponds

to non-poor households, 48.3% to rural areas and 2.7% to urban areas, while the remaining 49% is

distributed across poor households, in very similar proportion. For natural resources, 72.1% corresponds

to non-poor households in urban areas and 13% to non-poor households in rural areas. Almost 15% of

the remaining corresponds to poor households.

Table 15 - Distribution of income for each household group (percentage)

Household group Labor

Capital Land Natural

resources Skilled Unskilled

Urban poor 4.9 15.6 3.4 25.0 8.8

Rural poor 2.7 26.9 0.2 24.0 6.1

Urban non-poor 83.4 36.9 95.3 2.7 72.1

Rural non-poor 9.0 20.6 1.2 48.3 13.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Total Millions Q 95,920.2 85,663.7 133,876.5 6,983.6 1,995.5


Table 16 shows income composition for each household group. For poor households in urban areas,

47.9% of their income corresponds to unskilled labor, followed in similar proportion by skilled labor

(16.9%) and capital (16.2%). Transfers from the rest of the world accounted for 8.1% of their income.

For poor households in rural areas, unskilled labor income represents the highest proportion of their

income (63.4%), followed by transfers from the rest of the world (15.8%) and government transfers

(8.2%). For non-poor rural households, labor income accounted for 61% of revenues, 41% for unskilled

and 20% for skilled labor. For this group of households, transfers from the rest of the world represent

just under a quarter of their income.

For non-poor households living in urban areas, capital income represents almost half their income, and

in less proportion, labor income accounts for 42.3%, as well as 30.3% for skilled labor and 12% for

unskilled workers. Transfers from the rest of the world accounted for 6.3% of their income, and

government transfers, for 2.5%.

It is important to note that although government transfers and transfers from the rest of the world

represent a smaller proportion of the income of non-poor urban households, in absolute terms income is

higher in this group of households.

Table 16 - Income composition for each household group (Percentage)

Household

group

Labor Capital Land Natural

resources

Governmen

t transfers

Transfers

RoW Skilled Unskilled

Urban poor 16.9 47.9 16.2 6.3 0.6 4.0 8.1

Rural poor 7.0 63.4 0.6 4.6 0.3 8.2 15.8

Urban non-poor 30.3 12.0 48.3 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.3

Rural non-poor 20.0 41.0 3.7 7.8 0.6 3.2 23.6


5.1.5 Household consumption

Non-poor households from urban areas accounts for 59.5% of national consumption, and non-poor rural

households, just under a fifth (18.1%). While consumption of poor households accounts for 22.4% of

domestic consumption, 7.8% for households in urban areas and 14.6% in rural areas.

The composition of consumption for each household group shows below. It appears that for poor

households, food accounts for the largest share of consumption, mainly for poor rural households, food

accounts for 62.1% of its consumption. In the table we can see that for these poor rural households, beans

and corn account for more than 10% of its consumption.

For non-poor households, the proportion of food consumption is lower, specifically for non-poor

households in urban areas, where it represents less than a third (31.1%) of total consumption. For this

same group, services account for 44.8% of consumption. It is important to note that, although for non-

poor households in urban areas the proportion of consumption in corn and beans is less than for poor

rural households, 3% compared to 11.5%, in absolute terms, the consumption of corn and bean in non-

poor households in urban areas is higher than in poor rural households.

Table 17 - Consumption composition of each household group (percentage)

Urban poor Rural poor Urban non-

poor

Rural non-

poor

c-coff 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

c-bana 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.8

c-maiz 4.3 4.7 2.6 3.3

c-bean 3.8 6.8 0.4 2.4

c-cerl 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1

c-rotu 2.4 2.5 1.0 1.5

c-vege 7.0 7.4 3.0 4.9

c-frui 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.2

c-plan 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

c-milk 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1

c-eggs 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.0

c-oanp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

c-lena 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9

c-otfr 1.6 2.3 0.2 0.9

c-fish 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.3

c-otmi 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

c-meat 6.0 6.5 3.2 3.8

c-fisp 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

c-vegp 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6

c-oilp 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1

c-molp 5.3 5.1 2.5 3.5

c-anip 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2

c-brea 4.8 11.1 6.8 9.4

c-suga 3.1 3.8 1.0 1.8

c-maca 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.5

c-lact 4.0 4.0 1.7 2.5

c-oali 2.4 1.5 2.4 2.2

c-bebi 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.2

c-inot 22.5 18.7 23.0 21.9

c-elwa 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0

c-reho 8.4 5.2 6.5 5.3

c-seot 12.8 9.3 37.3 27.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


5.1.6 Margins

Margins of transport, trade and electricity were included in the Social Accounting Matrix. It is important

to note that for some agricultural products, like vegetables, cereals, fuel food, maize, roots and tubers,

as well as beans, margins are even greater than the basic price for these commodities.

Table 18 – Margin rates

Margin rates Products

More than 1.6 Vegetables

1.6> margin > 1.15 Cereals, fuel wood, Maize

1.15> margin > 1 Roots and tubers, Beans

1>margin>0.6 Fruits, other animal products, fish

0.6>margin>0.4 Banana, Dairy products

Margin<0.4 Egss, other industries, cofee, bread, milk, beveragest, others Source: PEP 1-1 calculations based on Social Accounting Matrix for Guatemala, 2011.

5.2 Results from simulations

In this section we present the results from simulating a) an increase in international food prices; b) a

reduction in productivity due to climate change; c) the effects of drought in agriculture; d) a reduction

of transportation margins; and e) agricultural incentive policies.

5.2.1 Increase in international food prices

An increase in international food prices could have two effects. We could see a positive impact on

activities that export these kinds of goods, but a negative effect in the cost of the basic food basket for

households, as well as intermediate inputs for industries.

We first see an increase in output and value added for agriculture for seed (0.5) and agriculture for food

(2.7), but a negative effect on total aggregate output of other industries. These changes in the level of

production are determined by the relative importance of exports in production, substitution between local

and imported goods, as well as an indirect effect due to appreciation of real exchange rates.

For those goods that are oriented to exports, production increases, as well as for those that have high

degree of substitution between local and imported goods. We also see that industries that use agricultural

products as inputs would end up having a negative impact due to increase in their costs, as is the case for

the industrial food processing industries.

Figure 1 - Total aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of increase in world food prices (% change)

Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)

0.5

2.7

-10.6

-6.4

-0.5

-1.1

0.5

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

Agriculture for seed

Agriculture for food

Other Agriculture

Other primary activities

Industrial Food

Other Industries

Services

Additional to the effects mentioned above, we also found indirect effects due to the appreciation of the

real exchange rate. In this case, its behavior was affected by an increase in the surplus of the Current

Account of the Balance of Payments (foreign savings) in local currency. So, in order to maintain the

same level of foreign financing to the Guatemalan economy in dollars, there had to be a balance in the

form of an appreciation of the real exchange rate (5.3%). This appreciation had an indirect effect of

diminishing the growth of exports and increasing the imports of some goods that became cheaper (see

Table 19). In agriculture for seed, we observed a net positive increase of export products, but a decline

in production for local markets, explained by international prices. Finally, in other agriculture, we

observed negative impacts on exports and production for domestic market.

Table 19 - Exports and imports by product (% change)

Import Export

Coffee 3 0

Bananas 1.9 1.1

Maize 3.3 48.3

Beans 0.8 4.9

Cereals -0.3 61.5

Roots & Tubers 1.8 39.4

Vegetables 1.2 44.6

Fruits 2.3 15.9

Other agriculture products 11 -19.9

Mining 2.9 -7.9

Meat 3.6 -11.8

Industrial foods 3.3 -6.5

Other industrial products 1.6 -3

Services 3.4 -2.8 Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)

The surplus in the current account in local currency was reduced through depreciation of the exchange

rate and a reduction in net exports. The net effect was a reduction in the volume of exports and an increase

of imports in real terms, but with a reduction in nominal terms due to depreciation of real exchange rate

(See Table 20). Even if investment did not change in real terms, due to depreciation and lower price of

imports, it still fell in nominal terms and as percentage of nominal GDP. Absorption increased because

private and government consumption rose in nominal and real terms. Moreover, because of higher prices

of imports and domestic goods, combined with a higher income of households, and thus and increase in

tax revenue, the government could increase its consumption without affecting the level of public savings

in real terms.

Table 20 - GDP table (% change)

Nominal Real GDP

share

Absorption 0.7 1.1 -0.2

Private Consumption 1.2 1.3 0.4

Fixed Investment -2.4 0.0 -3.2

Stock Change 0.4 -0.5

Government

Consumption

0.2 1.8 -0.6

Exports -3.1 -2.1 -4.0

Imports -2.6 2.0 -3.5

GDPMP 0.9 0.0

NetIndTax -1.1 -1.9

GDPFC -1.4 0.0 -2.3


However, consumption did not grow for all types of households. As a result of the rise of international

food prices, prices of local composite goods (domestic and imported) increased in agricultural foods in

more than 8%. The rise in price of local goods was dampened by an appreciation of the real exchange

rate. However, the consumption of vulnerable households, like the rural poor were affected negatively

by this shock. Consumption agricultural foods, like maize, bean, cereals, fruits, vegetables, banana and

coffee, saw a reduction. There was a reduction of consumption of some agricultural goods in non-poor

urban households. The pressing conclusion is that an increase of international food prices would

represent a threat to food security of the most vulnerable group in Guatemala. Nevertheless, the

consumption of processed foods would increase in this scenario, which would offset the consumption of

agricultural goods.

Table 21 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change)

Coffee Bananas Maize Beans Cereals Roots

&

Tubers

Vegetables Fruits Processed

food

Others

Price 13.7 12.4 8.7 9.1 11.7 8.7 9.0 11.3 -0.4 0.6

Consumption by type of household

Urban Poor 1.6 1.8 0.0 1.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.5 3.6 6.2

Rural Poor -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 1.0 2.0

Urban Non

Poor

-2.7 -2.6 0.0 -0.9 -3.0 -2.3 -2.6 -3.0 -0.4 0.0

Urban Poor 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.7 1.8 4.2 5.8


In this scenario, the consumption budget and disposable income increased for most households, with the

exception of urban non-poor households. This was a result of labor intensity of agriculture for food and

agriculture for seed, abundant in unskilled workers, which increased demand for this type of workers in

rural areas. However, because of the lower wages in agriculture, the mean wages of the Guatemalan

economy would see a reduction after this shock, especially for unskilled workers (see Table 22). As a

net effect, we observed a rise in disposable income for the rural poor (4.1%), the urban poor (5.9%) and

the rural non-poor (8.1%), with a decrease for non-poor urban households (-1.2%).

In order to mantain the same levels of investment, households would have to increase their levels of

savings,18 with an increased disposable income and a reduction in the consumption of some goods. This

is not exactly the behavior that we expected in recent years, because domestic saving has been down19.

Nevertheless, this gives us the idea of the efforts that the country has to undertake in order to recover the

levels of investment of 2011.

Table 22 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change)



Other Agriculture

Other primary

activities

Industrial Food

Other Industries

Services

Demand

Skilled labor 0.1 2.3 -10.9 -7.1 -0.8 -1.4 0.3

Unskilled labor 0.5 2.7 -10.6 -6.8 -0.4 -1.0 0.7

Capital 0.3 2.5 -10.8 -8.5 -0.4 -1.1 0.6

Land 0.7 2.9 -10.4

Remunerations

Skilled labor Wages -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0

Unskilled labor Wages -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6

Rental of Capital -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4

Rental of Land -2.0 -2.0 -2.0

Rental of Natural

Resources

-13.1


5.2.2 Reduction in productivity due to climate change

As we mentioned before, climate change could have negative effects in agriculture productivity. Under

this scenario we saw negative results in production, exports, wages and reduction of government

spending and revenue. Besides negative effects of food security due to the diminished production and

consumption of agricultural goods, our figures show that the effects of climate change could increase

inequality, because the wages of unskilled labor would see a reduction as a result of an increase of capital

income and skilled labor wages.

In this case, we registered an important drop in the value added of agriculture for food, agriculture for

seed, as well as a slight drop in that of industrial food production and the service industry. It is important

to take into consideration that in this scenario we observed a fall in real GDP (1.2%), as can be seen in

Table 23. Those products that are oriented to international markets saw a decrease, because goods like

maize, bean, root and tubers have a lower fall rate compared with coffee, bananas and fruits. This could

18 Because investment remained fixed and household savings is endogenous 19 According to estimations of Cabrera, M. (2015), domestic saving saw a reduction from 3.7% of GDP in 2004-2008 to 3.6%

of GDP in 2010-2013, see Table No.4, page. 18.

be explained with the fact that lower productivity would translate into less competitiveness in

international markets. Exports in real terms fell by 2.1%, but also we observed a decrease in imports of

1.5% in real terms. It is important to note that a depreciation of the real exchange rate contributed to the

reduction of the negative impacts on external sectors. Another problem that we could see with reduction

of productivity is that fiscal space was reduced. As an effect, government expenditure had to be reduced

in view of lower tax revenues. There was also less income of households and less consumption.


Nominal Real GDP share

Absorption -1.3 -1.1 0.2

Private Consumption -1.4 -1.4 0.2

Fixed Investment -0.8 0.0 0.8

Stock Change 0.5 2.1

Government Consumption -1.9 -0.5 -0.3

Exports -1.0 -2.1 0.5

Imports -0.5 -1.5 1.1

GDPMP -1.6 -1.2 0.0

NetIndTax -1.5 0.1

GDPFC -1.6 -1.2 0.0 Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)

Figure 2 - Aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of decrease of TFP (% change)


Due to higher prices and lower income of households, lower productivity translates into a drop in

consumption of agricultural goods for each type of household. The exception was Maize, because its

consumption only fell in rural areas. However, this result could affect food security of the most

vulnerable population of Guatemala. Beans, which are also important for the Guatemalan diet, showed

a decrease in consumption for all types of households. This behavior is not only the result of higher

prices, but also of because of a decrease in household incomes for all categories; especially the urban

non-poor (1.8%). This could be expected because a drop in productivity could affect wages negatively,

and more so for skilled labor.

-7.1

-7.8

12.7

4.4

-0.8

0.0

-0.9

-10 -5 0 5 10 15



Other Agriculture


Industrial Food

Other Industries

Services


Cofee Bananas Maize Beans Cereals Roots

&

Tubers


food

Others

Price 3.9 9.2 3.7 5.9 1.6 5.2 3.2 3.8 0.7 -0.1


Urban Poor

-1.4 -2.0 0.0 -0.8 -1.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.2 -1.3

Rural Poor -1.2 -1.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -0.8 -1.1

Urban Non

Poor

-2.1 -3.0 0.0 -1.1 -2.1 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -1.6 -1.8

Urban Poor

-0.9 -1.6 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -1.1 -0.2 -0.2


We observed a deterioration of the external sector. First, we identified a sharp drop in exports, especially

in cereals, maize, fruits, vegetables, coffee and banana. Because local prices were highter, some of them

were replaced by imports, like maize and banana. This situation, however, was moderated by a

depreciation of the real exchange rate, in order to sustain the same level of deficit in the current account.

5.2.3 Effects of drought on agriculture

This version of PEP 1-1 Model contains an extension made by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming) to

analyze effects of shortage of supply of water or drought. We analyze the effects on agricultural

industries. In this scenario, agricultural sectors, which use this resource more intensely, were the most

affected. Due to the fact that the use of water is concentrated in agriculture for seed and in other

agriculture (see next figure), most negative effects are concentrated in these industries. In contrast, other

economic activities that did not use water as an important input would not be affected. Another important

effect was the climb in food prices, the reduction of wages of unskilled labor, and the reduction of income

for rural households.

Figure 3 - Water use by industry (% total)

Source: own calculations based SEEA (Ine & Iarna, 2015)

Note: includes use of registered and unregistered water.

59%

21%

15%

1%

Agriculture for seed Agriculture for food Other Agriculture Other primary activities

Industrial Food Other Industries Services Households

There was a drop in private consumption, both in real as well as nominal terms in this scenario. This was

closely linked to the reduction in disposable income of the urban non-poor households; a group

responsible for more than 70% of total household consumption. And although labor income saw a

reduction in all kinds of households, it fell only 8% for the urban non-poor, in contrast to more than 10%

for the other categories.


Nominal Real GDP share

Absorption -1.1 0.5 0.4

Private Consumption -0.5 -0.3 1.0

Fixed Investment -5.0 0.0 -3.5


Government Consumption -0.8 7.4 0.8

Exports 4.2 0.2 5.9

Imports 3.8 -0.1 5.5

GDPMP -1.6 0.6 0.0

NetIndTax -2.1 -0.5

GDPFC -8.7 1.3 -7.2 Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)

Compared to previous scenarios, we observed larger effects of drought in agriculture for seed and other

agriculture (see next figure). However, although water is an important input for agriculture for seed, due

to low intensity of use, drought could have been beneficial to this sector, because production from

agriculture for seed could migrate to these activities. Also, value added of other primary activities would

have risen, because the use of water of this sector is lower than agriculture for seed. This sector, however,

is not important in total value added share and in total employment. Industries and services would not

be affected by this shock.

Figure 4 - Change in value added by sector, by simulation scenario


In drought scenario we would observe a sharp increase in agricultural for seed products, especially for

bananas, roots and tubers, and beans. This situation could happen because a small share of these products

0.52.6

-10.7-6.5

-0.7 -1.1

0.5

-7.1 -7.8

12.7

4.4

-0.8

0

-0.9

-25.4

21.8

-22.1

30.2

3.3

8.5

1.9

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Agriculture for

Seed

Agriculture for

Food

Other

Agriculture

Other Primary

Activities

Industrial

processed food

Other Industries Services

Increase in world food prices Climate change Drought

are imported and have a low degree of substitution between local and imported goods. In this scenario

we observe an important increase in imports, GDP share increases from 37.4 to 39.4%. This is a result

of higher prices of domestically produced goods and a sharp depreciation of real exchange rate (7.6%).

Depreciation of real exchange rate is the result of an important increase in the current account deficit,

due to a displacement of purchases from local to imported goods. In this situation, depreciation helped

contain increased demand for imports, and improved the performance of exports for products other than

agriculture for seed and other agriculture (processed foods and services).

Table 26 - Exports and imports by product (% change)


Due to drought effects, wages reported a sharp decline, especially for un-skilled labor (18.1%) and for

skilled labor (6.3%). However, the biggest negative impact was on the demand for land, which fell 41%.

The intuition behind this is that activities that are intensive in the use of land are also intensive in the use

of water. However, the use of other natural resources utilized in other primary activities, like extractive

industries, increase. As a result, the net effect was a decline in urban non-poor household income and a

rise in that of other households, especially for the rural non-poor. That was because unskilled labor is

more representative in agricultural activities. In contrast, the wage rate of skilled increased, as did the

demand for capital. This could have affected negatively poverty and inequality.

5.2.4 Reduction of margins of transport

We analyzed the impacts of a reduction of transport margins. According to Dumitrescu, Smith, and

Osborne (2015), an estimated 26% of logistic costs could be reduced if the country invested in the six

main international routes. We applied a reduction in costs to margins in SAM corresponding with those

ideas, despite the fact that margins included commerce and electricity as well, but we assumed that the

reduction of logistic costs could help to reduce the monopolistic power of those involved in trade.

Because agricultural activities are not intensive in the use of electricity, we assumed that only margins

of trade and transport were effectively reduced.

A policy that reduced margins could have great benefits to the Guatemalan economy in terms of an

increase in the level of production, exports, consumption of food and exports. As we can see in the next

table, this scenario was beneficial in terms of an increase of GDP (2.9%), consumption (2.9%), exports

(2.9% in real terms) and government consumption (3.1% in real terms). The government would increase

its expenditure given an increase in net indirect taxes, with unchanged government savings in this

scenario.

Coffee Bananas Maize Beans Cereals

Roots

&

Tubers Vegetables Fruits

Other

agriculture

products Mining Meat

Industri

al foods

Other

industrial

products Services

Import 28.1 63.0 64.0 16.2 9.7 38.5 7.9 27.3 10.8 3.0 3.5 3.3 1.6 3.5

Exports -59.8 -53.3 -82.5 -30.3 -79.5 -88.3 -81.4 -81.1 -6.2 35.7 -7.0 12.8 14.9 13.2


Nominal Real GDP

share

Absorption 2.6 2.5 -0.2


Fixed Investment 0.6 0.0 -2.2

Stock Change 2.3 -0.6

Government

Consumption

3.4 3.1 0.5

Exports 4.5 2.9 1.6

Imports 3.3 1.8 0.5

GDPMP 2.9 2.9 0.0

NetIndTax 2.1 -0.7

GDPFC 0.6 0.1 -2.2 Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)

Most important increase in economic activity will be in Agriculture for food, in less degree in industries

and other primary activities. Services will reduce their level of activity because payments of margins

will not go to these activities. It is important to notice the reduction in levels of output of other

agriculture, because of a reduction in other forestry products, whose margins and their elasticity of

consumption are low.

Figure 5 - Change in total output by sector


Due to the fact that a reduction of margins would benefit agriculture for feed, demand of production

factors woluld go to this activity (see Table). And their intensiveness in unskilled labor would result in

an increase in their remuneration. Demand for land and capital would have increased in agriculture for

food, and the remuneration of land would increase as a result. The reduction of margins would be

beneficial to the disposable income of the rural non-poor (9.4%), the urban poor (7.8%) and the rural

poor (6.0%). Even the urban poor would increase their disposable income (0.5%). So, this scenario

could be beneficial for the reduction of poverty and inequality.

0.1

8.1

-2.9

2.0

3.1

2.3

-1.0

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0



Other Agriculture


Industrial Food

Other Industries

Services


Agriculture

for seed

Agriculture

for food

Other

Agriculture

Other

primary

activities

Industrial

Food

Other

Industries

Services

Demand

Skilled labor 1.0 9.1 -2.0 2.8 3.5 2.7 -0.7

Unskilled labor 0.1 8.2 -2.9 1.9 2.6 1.8 -1.6

Capital 1.1 9.3 -1.8 2.8 3.2 2.5 -1.0

Land -1.2 6.8 -4.1

Remunerations

Skilled labor Wages -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Unskilled labor

Wages

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Rental of Capital 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Rental of Land 3.8 3.8 3.8

Rental of Natural

Resources

4.4

Household Income

Urban Poor -0.6

Rural Poor -0.2

Urban Non Poor -1.8

Urban Poor -0.3


5.2.5 Agricultural incentive policies

In our last scenario we simulated a subsidy of 25% for capital used in the agricultural sector, and as we

can see, this situation didn’t have a significant impact on GDP, but it did have a small positive effect on

private consumption and exports, as well as a reduction in government consumption.


Nominal Real GDP

share

Absorption 0.1 0.1 0.0


Fixed Investment 0.1 0.0 0.0


Government

Consumption

-3.9 -4.0 -4.0

Exports 0.7 0.5 0.6

Imports 0.5 0.3 0.4

GDPMP 0.1 0.1 0.0

NetIndTax -6.4 -6.5

GDPFC -0.6 0.1 -0.7


Most of the benefits in this case went to agriculture for food, and we saw an increase in the level of

output of other industries (manufactures). This increase in the output of this sectors is explained by a

reduction in prices of intermediate consumption of these activities. This reduction of intermediate costs

in addition to a subsidy of capital income gave a boost to agriculture for food.

Figure 6 - Change in total output by sector


As a result of more output in agriculture for food, we observed an increase in demand for capital, land,

and unskilled labor. Unskilled labor, however, saw its wages reduced, because agriculture for seed and

other agriculture reduced their demand for this kind of workers. In contrast, skilled labor increased their

remuneration.


Agriculture

for seed

Agriculture

for food

Other

Agriculture

Other

primary activities

Industrial

Food

Other

Industries

Services

Demand Skilled labor -2.1 0.7 -2.3 -0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0

Unskilled labor -1.5 1.3 -1.7 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.6

Capital 8.8 11.9 8.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.6

Land -0.5 2.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Remunerations

Skilled labor Wages 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Unskilled labor Wages -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Household Income Urban Poor 1.1

Rural Poor 0.6

Urban Non Poor 0.3

Rural Non Poor 1.3 Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)

Despite subsidies, we didn’t observe lower prices for food. Disposable income of household increased,

nevertheless, due to more income from capital, and that resulted in an increase of food consumption for

some products, but of less than 1% in most cases. In aggregate terms, this policy only increased private

consumption by 0.38% of GDP and it reduced net indirect taxes by almost 0.44% of GDP, with a

subsequent drop of 0.4% in government consumption. It is likely that other policies could achieve the

same results at a lower cost.

0.0

3.0

-0.1

0.2

0.7

0.4

-0.2

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5



Other Agriculture


Industrial Food

Other Industries

Services


Cofee Bananas Maize Beans Cereals Roots

&

Tubers


food

Others

Price 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.6


Urban Poor 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.3 Rural Poor 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5

Urban Non Poor 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

Rural Non Poor 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9


6 Conclusions and policy implications

In this study, we used a Computable General Equilibrium model of the Guatemalan economy to conduct

simulations for a) an increase in international food prices; b) a reduction in productivity due to climate

change; c) the effects of drought in agriculture; d) a reduction of transportation margins; and e)

agricultural incentive policies.

In the case of an increase in international food prices we could see a positive impact on activities that

export these kinds of goods, but a negative effect in the cost of the basic food basket for households, as

well as intermediate inputs for industries. However, we would see a spike in production for those goods

that are oriented to exports, as well as for those that have high degree of substitution between local and

imported. Even if investment would not change in real terms, due to depreciation and lower price of

imports, it would still fall in nominal terms and as percentage of nominal GDP. Because of the lower

wages in agriculture, the mean wages of the Guatemalan economy would see a reduction after this shock,

especially for unskilled workers.

As for a foreseen reduction in productivity due to climate change, we registered an important drop in the

value added of agriculture for food, agriculture for seed, as well as a slight drop in that of industrial food

production and the service industry. Under this scenario we could expect a fall in real GDP of 1.2%. The

reduction of productivity could mean a reduced fiscal space, and a reduction in government expenditure

because of lower tax revenues. Due to higher prices and lower income of households, this scenario could

mean that consumption of agricultural goods for each type of household would be reduced in a relevant

manner, with the exception of maize, which fell only in rural areas. Beans, which are also important for

the Guatemalan diet, would show a decrease in consumption for all types of households. This is bad

news in terms of food security of the most vulnerable population of Guatemala.

The effects of drought could mean that the most negative effects would on agriculture for seed and in

other agriculture (see next figure), due to their higher use of water. This would result in a climb in food

prices, the reduction of wages of unskilled labor, and the reduction of income for rural households. As a

result disposable income of the urban non-poor households would be reduced; a group responsible for

more than 70% of total household consumption. In this scenario we could observe an important increase

in imports, with a GDP share that would increase from 37.4 to 39.4%. This would come as a result of

higher prices of domestically produced goods and a sharp depreciation of real exchange rate.

A policy that reduced margins could have great benefits to the Guatemalan economy in terms of an

increase in the level of production, exports, consumption of food and exports. This scenario would be

beneficial in terms of an increase of GDP (2.9%), consumption (2.9%), exports (2.9% in real terms) and

government consumption (3.1% in real terms). The government would increase its expenditure given

an increase in net indirect taxes, with unchanged government savings.

Finally, in our last scenario we simulated a subsidy of 25% for capital used in the agricultural sector, and

this situation didn’t have a significant impact on GDP, but it did have a small positive effect on private

consumption and exports, as well as a reduction in government consumption. In aggregate terms, this

policy would only increase private consumption by 0.38% of GDP and it would reduce net indirect taxes

by almost 0.44% of GDP, with a subsequent drop of 0.4% in government consumption. It is likely that

other policies could achieve the same results at a lower cost.

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8 Annex

8.1 Household expenditure detail

Table 32 - Household expenditure –Encovi 2011 variables

No. Commodities Data Base

Survey Code Description

1 Bananos Bananos Base alimentos 77 Bananos/guineos (unidad)

2 Café Café Base alimentos 101 Café en grano, molido,

instantáneo (libra)

3 Maiz Maiz Base alimentos 21 Maiz (blanco, amarillo, etc.)

(libra)

4 Frijol Frijol Base alimentos 19 Frijol (negro, blanco, colorado,

etc.) (libra)

5 Cereals y

legumbres

Arroz Base alimentos 20 Arroz (de1ra. o 2da.) (libra)

Tomate Base alimentos 57 Tomate (libra)

Arveja Base alimentos 71 Arveja (libra)

Ejote Base alimentos 74 Ejotes (libra)

6 Raíces y

tubérculos

Güisquil (unidad) Base alimentos 62 Güisquil (unidad)

Papas (libra) Base alimentos 69 Papas (libra)

Yuca (unidad) Base alimentos 70 Yuca (unidad)

7 Verduras

Cebolla (libra) Base alimentos 58 Cebolla (libra)

Chiles (libra) Base alimentos 59 Chiles (libra)

Repollo (unidad) Base alimentos 60 Repollo (unidad)

Zanahoria (unidad) Base alimentos 61 Zanahoria (unidad)

Lechuga (unidad) Base alimentos 63 Lechuga (unidad)

Pepino (unidad) Base alimentos 64 Pepino (unidad)

Remolacha (unidad) Base alimentos 65 Remolacha (unidad)

Ajo (cabeza) Base alimentos 66 Ajo (cabeza)

Hierbas (berro, perejil,

yerbabuena,macuy,

bledo, chipilín, etc.

(manojo)

Base alimentos 67

Hierbas (berro, perejil,

yerbabuena,macuy, bledo,

chipilín, etc. (manojo)

Apio (unidad) Base alimentos 68 Apio (unidad)

Brócoli (unidad) Base alimentos 72 Brócoli (unidad)

Coliflor (unidad) Base alimentos 73 Coliflor (unidad)

Güicoy (unidad) Base alimentos 75 Güicoy (unidad)

8 Frutas

Plátanos (unidad) Base alimentos 76 Plátanos (unidad)

Naranjas (unidad) Base alimentos 78 Naranjas (unidad)

Piñas (unidad) Base alimentos 79 Piñas (unidad)

Manzanas (libra) Base alimentos 80 Manzanas (libra)

Sandías (unidad) Base alimentos 81 Sandías (unidad)

Mangos (unidad) Base alimentos 82 Mangos (unidad)

Limones (unidad) Base alimentos 83 Limones (unidad)

Frutas secas (libra) Base alimentos 84 Frutas secas (libra)

Aguacates (unidad) Base alimentos 85 Aguacates (unidad)

Papayas (unidad) Base alimentos 86 Papayas (unidad)

Melones (unidad) Base alimentos 87 Melones (unidad)

Duraznos/melocotones

(unidad) Base alimentos 88 Duraznos/melocotones (unidad)

Fresas (libra) Base alimentos 89 Fresas (libra)

Mandarinas (unidad) Base alimentos 90 Mandarinas (unidad)

Peras (unidad) Base alimentos 91 Peras (unidad)

Uvas (libra) Base alimentos 92 Uvas (libra)

9

Plantas vivas,

flores y

capullos

cortados;

semillas de

flores y

frutos;

semillas de

vegetales

Plantas vivas, flores y

capullos cortados;

semillas de flores y

frutos; semillas de

vegetales

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 10

Adornos como floreros, plantas

ornamentales y otros adornos

10

Otros

productos

animales

Otros productos

animales

Base alimentos 45 Huevos de gallina (unidad)

Base alimentos 46 Otras clases de huevos (unidad)

Base alimentos 43 Leche líquida (litro)

11

Productos de

la silvicultura

y extracción

de madera

Productos de la

silvicultura y

extracción de madera

Base fuentes de

energia Item 7 LEÑA

12

Pescado y

otros

productos de

la pesca

Pescado y otros

productos de la pesca Base alimentos 36 Pescado fresco (libra)

13 Otros

minerales Otros minerales

Base fuentes de

energia Item 4 Carbón

Base alimentos 95 Sal (libra)

14

Carne y

productos de

carne

Carne y productos de

carne

Base alimentos 27 Carne de res sin hueso (libra)

Base alimentos 28 Visceras de res (menudos)

(libra)

Base alimentos 29 Carne de res con hueso (libra)

Base alimentos 30 Carne de cerdo sin hueso (posta)

(libra)

Base alimentos 31 Carne de cerdo con hueso (libra)

Base alimentos 32 Carne molida (libra)

Base alimentos 33 Carne de pollo o gallina (libra)

Base alimentos 35 Visceras de pollo o gallina

(menudos) (libra)

Base alimentos 40

Embutidos (jamón,

salchichas,chorizos,longanizas,

etc.) (libra)

15

Pescado

preparado o

en conserva

Pescado preparado o en

conserva

Base alimentos 37 Pescado seco (libra)

Base alimentos 38 Sardinas, atún, etc. (enlatados)

(gramos)

Base alimentos 39 Mariscos, camarones,

cangrejos, etc. (libra)

16

Legumbres

preparadas o

en conserva;

jugos de

frutas y de

legumbres y

frutas

preparadas o

en conserva

Legumbres preparadas

o en conserva; jugos de

frutas y de legumbres y

frutas preparadas o en

conserva

Base alimentos 97 Jugos empacados o enlatados

(litro)

Base alimentos 98 Frijoles enlatados (gramos)

Base alimentos 105 Mermeladas, jaleas (gramos)

Base alimentos 109 Otros envasados no incluídos

(litro)

Base alimentos 110 Compotas (gramos)

17

Aceites y

grasas

animales y

vegetales

Aceites y grasas

animales y vegetales

Base alimentos 52 Aceites comestibles (litro)

Base alimentos 53 Manteca vegetal (libra)

Base alimentos 54 Manteca de cerdo (libra)

Base alimentos 55 Margarina (gramos)

18 Productos de

molineria Productos de molineria

Base alimentos 8 Cereales preparados (gramos)

Base alimentos 9 Incaparina (libra)

Base alimentos 10 Avenas de toda clase (gramos)

Base alimentos 11 Atol de maíz (vaso)

Base alimentos 12

Otros atoles (arroz en leche, atol

de plátano, atolillo, shuco)

(vaso)

Base alimentos 17 Harina de maiz (libra)

Base alimentos 18 Harina de trigo (libra)

19

Preparados

utilizados

para la

alimentación

de animales

Preparados utilizados

para la alimentación de

animales

Gasto del último

mes 19 Comida para mascotas

Capitulo

agropecuario p14d06b Alimentos para animales

20 Productos de

panaderia Productos de panaderia

Base alimentos 1 Pan dulce (unidad)

Base alimentos 2 Pan francés (unidad)

Base alimentos 3 Pan de rodaja (gramos)

Base alimentos 4 Galletas (gramos)

Base alimentos 5 Pastel (porción o pedazo)

Base alimentos 6 Tortillas de harina (unidad)

Base alimentos 7 Tortillas de maiz (unidad)

Base alimentos 104 Golosinas (tortrix, ricitos, etc.)

(gramos)

21 Azúcar Azúcar Base alimentos 13 Azúcar (libra)

Base alimentos 14 Panela (rapadura) (libra)

22

Macarrones,

fideos y

productos

farináceos

análogos

Macarrones, fideos y

productos farináceos

análogos

Base alimentos 22 Fideos, tallarines, coditos,

pastas de toda clase (libra)

23 Productos

lacteos Productos lacteos

Base alimentos 41 Leche en polvo para bebé (libra)

Base alimentos 42 Leche en polvo (libra)

Base alimentos 43 Leche líquida (litro)

Base alimentos 44 Leche evaporada o condensada

(gramos)

Base alimentos 47 Crema fresca (litro)

Base alimentos 48 Queso fresco o duro (libra)

Base alimentos 49 Yogures (litro)

Base alimentos 50 Mantequilla (libra)

Base alimentos 51 Requezón (libra)

Base alimentos 100 Helados/granizadas (litro)

24

Productos

alimenticios

n.c.p.

Productos alimenticios

n.c.p.

Base alimentos 15 Mieles, melazas y jarabes

(botella)

Base alimentos 16 Dulces y confites de toda clase

(gramos)

Base alimentos 23 Sopas en sobre (malher, maggi,

etc.) (gramos)

Base alimentos 24 Salsas y pastas de tomate

(gramos)

Base alimentos 25 Otras Salsas y pastas (gramos)

Base alimentos 26 Sopas instantáneas en vaso

(gramos)

Base alimentos 56 Mayonesa y aderezos. (gramos)

Base alimentos 93

Consomés, sazonadores,

ablandadores, sal de ajo, de

cebolla etc. (gramos)

Base alimentos 94 Tomillo, laurel, orégano y otras

especias (gramos)

Base alimentos 102 Chocolate (libra)

Base alimentos 106 Semillas tostadas (manía,

marañon, etc)

Base alimentos 111 Té en sobre (gramos)

Base alimentos 112 Tamales colorados, negros, de

cambray, elote, chuchitos,

Base alimentos 113 Paches (unidad)

Base alimentos 114 Chicharrones o carnitas de cerdo

(libra)

Base alimentos 115 Tacos de toda clase (unidad)

Base alimentos 116 Tostadas con guacamol, frijol,

salsa, etc. (unidad)

25

Bebidas

alcohólicas y

no

alcohólicas

Bebidas alcohólicas

Base alimentos 103 Cerveza (litro)

Base alimentos 107 Licores, rones, whiskys, vinos,

etc. (litro)

Bebidas no alcohólicas;

aguas minerales

embotelladas

Base alimentos 96 Aguas gaseosas (litro)

Base alimentos 99 Agua purificada (litro)

26 Otras

industrias

Productos del tabaco Base alimentos 108 Cigarrilos (paquete 20

unidades)

Fibras textiles,

productos textiles y

prendas de vestir

Gasto del último

mes 15

Hilos para coser, lanas, botones,

elásticos, zippers y similares

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 1

Prendas de vestir

confeccionadas

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 2 Telas para confeccionar ropa

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 9

Cortinas, sábanas, toallas,

mantas, colchones, manteles, fra

Base personas

capítulo

educación

P06A04B Pago por uniformes en

preprimaria

P06B13B Pago por uniformes educacion

escolar

Cuero y productos de

cuero; calzado

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 3

Calzado, zapatos tenis, botas y

reparación de calzado

Pasta de papel, papel y

productos de papel;

impresos y artículos

análogos

Gastos de la

semana pasada 2 Periódicos

Gastos de la

semana pasada 6

Papel higiénico, toallas

sanitarias, servilletas, toallas de

Gasto del último

mes 16

Libros y revistas (No incluya

textos escolares

Base personas

capítulo

educación

P06A05B Compra de libros, útiles y

materiales para preescolar

P06B14B Compra de libros educacion

escolar

P06B16B

Compra de cuadernos y

materiales escolares en

educacion escolar

p06a08b Compra de otros materiales

preescolar (mensual)

P06B20B

Compra de otros materiales y

útiles escolares, en educacion

escolar (mensual)

Productos de horno de

coque; productos de

petróleo refinado;

combustibles nucleares

Gastos de la

semana pasada 4

Combustible para vehiculos de

uso particular del hogar

Base fuentes de

energia item 2 Kerosene

Base fuentes de

energia item 3 Gas Propano

Productos químicos

Gasto del último

mes 1

Jabón lavaplatos, jabón de bola,

detergentes, suavizante líquido,

cloro etc.

Gasto del último

mes 4

Jabón para baño, shampu,

acondicionador, etc.

Gasto del último

mes 5

Pasta dental, cepillo dental, hilo

dental, enjuague bucal, e

Gasto del último

mes 10

Pintura de uñas, lapiz labial,

mascara de pestañas, sombras y

otros cosméticos

Gasto del último

mes 13

Desinfectantes para piso y

baños, desodorantes

ambientales e insecticidas

Gasto del último

mes 14

Aceite de bebe, hisopos,

mamones, pepes, pachas,

pañales, baberos etc.

Gasto del último

mes 17

Colonias, desodorantes,

lociones, talcos, etc.

Gasto del último

mes 18

Alka seltzer, sal andrews,

aspirinas, alcohol, etc.

Base personas

capítulo salud

P05D12B Pago por medicinas (mensual)

P05C09C ¿Cuánto pagó por medicinas?

Annual

Productos métalicos

elaborados, y

maquinaria y equipo

Gasto del último

mes 3

Linternas o focos, bombillas,

etc.

Gasto del último

mes 9

Tijeras, limas y corta uñas,

pinzas, etc.

Base fuentes de

energia Item 2 Baterías (pilas)

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 7

Secadora de pelo, afeitadora

eléctrica y calentador de agua

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 8

Vajillas, ollas, bandejas,

sartenes, cubiertos y otros utens

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 31 Aparato de teléfono celular

Base personas

capítulo salud

P05D15B Pagó por aparatos o equipos

ortopédicos (mensual)

P05D16B

Pagó dinero por lentes

graduados, audífonos para

sordos o placas dentales

(mensual)

Muebles Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 5

Muebles de cocina, comedor,

sala, dormitorio

Otra manufactura

Gastos de la

semana pasada 9 Fósforos

Gastos de la

semana pasada 10 Encendedores

Gasto del último

mes 2

Cepillos para ropa, cepillos para

calzado, liquido y betún para

calzado etc.

Gasto del último

mes 7

Cepillos para el cabello, peines

peinetas, ganchos, diademas

Gasto del último

mes 8

Rasuradoras, repuestos para

rasuradoras, hojas de afeitar, c

Gasto del último

mes 11

Escobas, cepillos, trapeadores,

cera para pisos, bolsas para

basura etc.

Gasto del último

mes 12

Guantes para lavar y de cocina,

esponjas, lazos, ganchos para

colgar etc.

Gastos de los


Articulos de joyería de metales

preciosos y fantasía

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 29 Artículos deportivos

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 30 Juguetes

27 Electricidad y

agua Electricidad y agua

Base fuentes de

energia item 6 Electricidad

Base fuentes de

energia item 98 Otras fuentes de energía

Base

vivienda/hogares

p01d09 y

p01d15b

Pago servicio agua y compra de

agua a camion cisterna

28

Alojamiento;

servicios de

suministro de

comidas y

bebidas

Alojamiento, servicios

de suministro de

comidas y bebidas

Gastos de la

semana pasada 5

Comidas y bebidas consumidas

fuera del hogar

Gastos de los


Hoteles, pensiones y paquetes

turisticos

Base personas

capítulo salud P05C09E

¿Cuánto pagó por hospedaje y

alimentación?

29 Otros

servicios

Construcciones Base

vivienda/hogares P01C04

Mantenimiento y reparación de

vivienda

Servicio de transporte

y almacenamiento

Gastos de la

semana pasada 1

Buses urbanos, microbuses,

taxis o mototaxis (no transporte

escolar)

Gastos de la

semana pasada 3

Teléfono público, telegramas,

cartas, fax, internet

Gasto del último

mes 25 Peaje (uso de autopista)

Gasto del último

mes 28

Pagos por pago de parqueo para

vehiculos del hogar

Gasto del último

mes 29 Gastos por pasajes extraurbanos

Gastos de los


Pasajes aéreos y terrestres con

fines de turismo, descanso,

Base personas

capítulo salud P05C09D

Pago de transporte para

hospitalizacion

P05D14B Pago de transporte a centro de

salud, mensual.

Base personas

capítulo

educación

P06A07B Pago por transporte, educacion

preescolar (mensual)

P06B19B Pago por transporte, educacion

escolar (mensual)

Servicios postales, de

mensajería y

telecomunicaciones

Base

vivienda/hogares p01d20a Telefono fijo

Base

vivienda/hogares p01d20b Celular

Base

vivienda/hogares p01d20c Internet

Base

vivienda/hogares p01d20d Tv Cable

Servicios de

intermediación

financiera y seguros

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 26 Pago de seguro de vehiculo

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 27 Pago de seguro de vida

Gastos de los


Seguro privado de salud,

enfermedad o accidente

Servicios inmobiliarios Base

vivienda/hogares P01B03

¿Cuánto paga mensualmente de

alquiler?

Servicios de alquiler

sin operarios y

servicios prestados a

las empresas

Gastos de la

semana pasada 8 Molienda de maíz

Gasto del último

mes 30

Gasto por servicios de

vigilancia, guardias seguridad

Gastos de los


Pagos por obtención y trámites

de documentos

Gastos de los


Reparación y mantenimiento de

vehículos

Gastos de los


Servicios profesionales de

abogados, contadores, y otros

profesionales no en salud

Servicios de veterinaria Capítulo

agrocecuario P14D06C Gastos veterinaria

Otros servicios

comunitarios, sociales

y personales

Gastos de la

semana pasada 6 Rifas, loterías y bingos

Gastos de la

semana pasada 11 Lustre de calzado

Gasto del último

mes 20

Lavado, planchado y reparación

de prendas de vestir fuera de

Gasto del último

mes 21 Recreación, diversión

Gasto del último

mes 22 Barbería, salón de belleza

Gasto del último

mes 26

Gimnasio, sauna, baño turco,

masajes, etc.

Gastos de los


Fiestas, cumpleaños y

celebraciones.

Gastos de los


Regalos para todo tipo de fiestas

o celebraciones

Gastos de los

últimos 12 meses 24 Aportes a clubes o asociaciones

Gastos de los


Servicios y contratos funerarios,

panteones, cajas mortuorias etc.

Servicios domésticos

Gasto del último

mes 23

Servicio de empleada

doméstica, lavandera,

planchadora, que viven en el

hogar

Gasto del último

mes 24

Servicio de empleada

doméstica, lavandera,

planchadora, que NO viven en el

hogar Source: with information from Encovi 2011.

8.2 Micro SAM Accounts detail

These two tables explain the economic activities and commodities included in the aggregated sectors

and products of the SAM.

Table 33 - Activities: table of equivalences

Agricultural Industries for feed

Cría de aves de corral

Cría de cerdos

Cría de ganado vacuno

Cría de otros animales

Cría de ovejas, cabras, caballos, asnos, mulas y burdéganos

Cría de peces en granjas piscícolas

Obtención de productos de animales vivos

Producción de pieles finas, cueros de reptiles y plumas de aves como parte de la explotación ganadera

Agricultural Industries for seed

Cultivo de banano

Cultivo de café

Cultivo de cardamomo

Cultivo de cereales y otros cultivos n.c.p.

Cultivo de frutas y nueces, plantas cuyas hojas se utilizan para preparar bebidas, y especias

Cultivo de tubérculos, raíces, hortalizas y legumbres, especialidades hortícolas y productos de vivero

Otros Cultivos n.c.p.

Food industry

Beneficiado de café

Beneficios de arroz

Elaboración de aceites y grasas de origen vegetal y animal

Elaboración de alimentos preparados para animales

Elaboración de almidones y productos derivados de almidón

Elaboración de azúcar

Elaboración de cacao y chocolate y de productos de confitería

Elaboración de macarrones, fideos y productos farináceos similares

Elaboración de otros productos alimenticios n.c.p.

Elaboración de otros productos de molinería n.c.p.

Elaboración de productos de panadería

Elaboración de productos lácteos

Elaboración y conservación de frutas, legumbres y hortalizas

Elaboración y conservación de pescado y productos de pescado

Matanza de aves

Matanza de ganado porcino

Matanza de ganado vacuno

Matanza de otros animales

Preparación y conservación de carne y productos cárnicos

Non-food industry activities

Adqusiciones menos disposiciones de objetos valiosos

Ajuste CIF/FOB sobre importaciones

Consumo final de las instituciones sin fines de lucro

Consumo final de los hogares

Consumo final del gobierno colectivo

Consumo final del gobierno individual

Electricidad gas y agua

Exportación de bienes

Exportación de servicios

Formación bruta de capital fijo

Importación de bienes

Importación de servicios

Impuestos a los productos exc. IVA e impuestos a la importación

Impuestos tipo IVA

Impuestos y derechos sobre importaciones exc. IVA importaciones.

Márgenes de comercio

Márgenes de transporte

Subvenciones a los productos

Suma parcial / descripción

Variación de existencias

Other agriculture

Actividades de servicios agrícolas y ganaderos, excepto las actividades veterinarias

Captura de camarones y langostas

Captura de crustáceos y moluscos y otros productos acuáticos

Captura de peces

Caza ordinaria y mediante trampas y repoblación de animales de caza, incluso las actividades de servicios

conexas

Cultivo de camarones

Cultivo de productos agrícolas en combinación con la cría de animales

Silvicultura, extracción de madera y actividades de servicios conexas

Other manufactures

Actividades de edición e impresión de papel y cartón y actividades de reproducción de grabaciones

Adobo y teñido de pieles; fabricación de artículos de piel

Aserrado y acepilladura de madera

Curtido y adobo de cueros; fabricación de maletas, bolsos de mano y artículos de talabartería y guarnicionería,

excepto calzado

Destilación, rectificación y mezcla de bebidas alcohólicas; producción de alcohol etílico a partir de sustancias

fermentadas

Elaboración de bebidas malteadas y de malta

Elaboración de bebidas no alcohólicas,

Elaboración de productos de tabaco

Elaboración de vinos

Fabricación de abonos y compuestos de nitrógeno y de plaguicidas y otros productos químicos de uso

agropecuario.

Fabricación de artículos de hormigón, cemento y yeso

Fabricación de calzado

Fabricación de cemento, cal y yeso

Fabricación de coque, productos de la refinación de petróleo y combustible nuclear

Fabricación de cubiertas y cámaras de caucho: recauchado y renovación de cubiertas de caucho

Fabricación de jabones y detergentes, preparados para limpiar y pulir, perfumes y preparados de tocador

Fabricación de maquinaria y equipo, n.c.p.

Fabricación de metales comunes

Fabricación de muebles

Fabricación de otras sustancias y productos químicos y fabricación de fibras textiles manufacturadas.

Fabricación de otros productos de caucho

Fabricación de otros productos minerales no metálicos

Fabricación de otros productos textiles, excepto prendas de vestir.

Fabricación de papel y productos de papel

Fabricación de pinturas, barnices y productos de revestimiento similares, tintas de imprenta y masillas

Fabricación de plásticos en formas primarias y de caucho sintético

Fabricación de prendas de vestir, excepto prendas de piel (local)

Fabricación de prendas de vestir, excepto prendas de piel (máquila)

Fabricación de productos de arcilla y cerámica refractaria y no refractaria para uso estructural y no estructural

Fabricación de productos de madera, corcho, paja y materiales trenzables, excepto muebles

Fabricación de productos de plástico

Fabricación de productos elaborados de metal, excepto maquinaria y equipo

Fabricación de productos farmacéuticos, sustancias químicas medicinales y productos botánicos

Fabricación de tejidos y artículos de punto y ganchillo

Fabricación de vidrio y productos de vidrio

Hilatura, tejedura y acabado de productos textiles

Otras industrias manufactureras n.c.p.

Producción de aguas minerales

Other primary industries

Extracción de minerales metálicos

Extracción de otros minerales no metálicos

Extracción de petróleo y gas natural

Extracción de piedra, arena y arcilla

Other services

Actividades Auxiliares de la Intermediación Financiera

Actividades de agencias de viajes y organizadores de viajes; actividades de asistencia a turistas n.c.p.

Actividades de arquitectura e ingeniería u otras actividades técnicas

Actividades de asociaciones que sirven a los hogares

Actividades de bibliotecas, archivos y museos y otras actividades culturales

Actividades de cinematografía, radio y televisión y otras actividades de entretenimiento; Actividades de

agencias de noticias

Actividades de hospitales

Actividades de investigación y desarrollo, asesoramiento empresarial y en materia de gestión

Actividades de médicos y odontólogos

Actividades de organizaciones empresariales y de empleadores

Actividades de planes de seguridad social de afiliación obligatoria

Actividades de servicios sociales con alojamiento y sin alojamiento

Actividades de Transporte Complementarias y Auxiliares

Actividades deportivas y otras actividades de esparcimiento

Actividades jurídicas y de contabilidad, teneduría de libros, auditoría, etc.

Actividades veterinarias

Administración pública y defensa

Alquiler de equipo de construcción o demolición dotado de operarios

Alquiler de maquinaria y equipo sin operarios y de efectos personales y enseres domésticos

Alquiler de vivienda

Comercio al por mayor y al por menor

Construcción, excepto alquiler de equipo de construcción ó demolición dotado de operarios

Distribución de combustibles gaseosos por tubería, suministro de vapor y agua caliente

Eliminación de desperdicios y aguas residuales, saneamiento y actividades similares

Enseñanza

Financiación de Planes de Seguros y de Pensiones, excepto los Planes de Seguridad Social de Afiliación

Obligatoria

Generación, captación y distribución de energía eléctrica

Hogares privados con servicio doméstico

Hoteles; campamentos y otros tipos de hospedaje temporal

Informática y actividades conexas

Intermediación Financiera, excepto la Financiación de Planes de Seguros y Pensiones

Mantenimiento y reparación de vehículos automotores y motocicletas

Organizaciones y órganos extraterritoriales

Otras actividades de servicios

Otras actividades empresariales n.c.p.

Otras actividades inmobiliarias, excepto alquiler de vivienda

Otras actividades relacionadas con la salud humana

Publicidad

Reciclamiento

Reparación de efectos personales y enseres domésticos

Restaurantes, bares y cantinas

Servicios postales y de correo

SIFMI

Telecomunicaciones

Transporte por Vía Acuática

Transporte por Vía Aérea

Transporte por Vía Terrestre; Transporte por Tuberías

Water distribution

Captación, depuración y distribución de agua

Table 34 - Products: table of equivalences

Animal and vegetal oils and fats

Aceite vegetal

Harinas de semillas y frutas oleaginosas y otras grasas de origen vegetal y animal n.c.p.

Manteca vegetal

Margarina y preparados análogos

Animal foods

PREPARADOS UTILIZADOS PARA LA ALIMENTACIÓN DE ANIMALES

Bakery products

Otros productos de panadería y repostería n.c.p.

Pan

Bananas

Banano

Beans

Frijol

Beverages

Alcohol etílico; aguardientes, licores y otras bebidas espirituosas y vinos

Cerveza de malta

Malta

Canned legumes

Compotas, jaleas de frutas, purés y pastas de frutas o nueces

Frutas y nueces, sin cocer o cocidas al vapor o en agua, congeladas

Jugos de frutas y de legumbres

Legumbres preparadas o en conserva

Otras frutas en conserva n.c.p.

Cereals and legumes

Arroz con cáscara

Otras legumbres n.c.p.

Otros cereales n.c.p.

Sorgo

Trigo

Coffee

Café

Consumo de capital fijo no Sociedades

Consumo de capital fijo no Sociedades

Consumo de capital fijo Sociedades

Consumo de capital fijo Sociedades

Dairy products

Leche en polvo

Leche pasteurizada

Otros productos lácteos n.c.p.

Eggs

Huevos

Electricity, gas, and water

Agua natural

Energía eléctrica, gas, vapor y agua caliente

Excedente de explotación, bruto

Excedente de explotación, bruto

Excedente de explotación, neto

Excedente de explotación, neto

Fish and other fisheries products

Atún fresco o refrigerado

Camarón vivo, fresco o refrigerado

Otros peces vivos frescos o refrigerados

Otros productos acuáticos n.c.p.

Formación bruta de capital fijo y objetos valiosos

Formación bruta de capital fijo y objetos valiosos

Fruits

Berries

Mango

Melón

Otras frutas n.c.p. y nueces

Fuel wood

Lana

Leña

Ingreso mixto, bruto

Ingreso mixto, bruto

Ingreso mixto, neto

Ingreso mixto, neto

Lodging, food service

Servicios de alojamiento

Servicios de suministro de comida y bebidas

Macaroons and noodles

MACARRONES, FIDEOS Y PRODUCTOS FARINÁCEOS ANÁLOGOS

Maize

Maíz

Meat products

Carne y despojos comestibles de aves (frescas, refrigeradas o congeladas)

Carne y despojos comestibles de ganado porcino (fresca, regrigerada o congelada)

Carne y despojos comestibles de ganado vacuno (fresca, refrigerada o congelada)

Otras carnes, embutidos y otros productos de la carne

Milk

Leche sin elaborar

Mill products

Arroz sin cáscara

Harina de trigo

Otras harinas, avenas, y otros productos de la molinería n.c.p.

Minerals

Minerales metálicos

Otros minerales no metálicos n.c.p.

PETRÓLEO CRUDO Y GAS NATURAL

Piedra de construcción o de talla, yeso, arenas y arcillas

Sal común y cloruro de sodio

Other animal products including live animals

Miel natural

Other crops, live plants, flowers and their seeds

Ajonjolí

Algodón en oro

Cacao en grano

Caña de azúcar

Claveles

Especias

Otras materias vegetales sin elaborar n.c.p.

Otras plantas bebestibles n.c.p.

Otras plantas utilizadas en la fabricación de azúcar n.c.p.

Otras plantas vivas, flores y semillas n.c.p.

Otras semillas y frutos oleaginosos n.c.p.

Rosas

Semilla de algodón

Soya

TABACO SIN ELABORAR

Té verde

Other food products

Almidones y sus productos, azúcares y jarabes de azúcar, n.c.p.

Cacao, chocololate y artículos de confitería preparados con azúcar

Otros productos alimenticios n.c.p.

Other forestry products

Aves de corral

Chicle y chiquibul

Ganado bovino

Ganado porcino

Hule natural o látex

Otras gomas, resinas naturales y otros productos de la silvicultura n.c.p.

Otros animales vivos n.c.p.

Otros productos animales n.c.p.

Otros tipos de madera sin elaborar n.c.p.

Ovejas, cabras, caballos, asnos, mulas y burdéganos

Troncos de madera

Other manufactured products

Abonos y plaguicidas

Aceites y grasas lubricantes

Aguas minerales embotelladas

Aparatos médicos, instrumentos ópticos y de precisión

Artículos de corcho y paja u otros materiales trenzables

Artículos de cuero

Artículos de deporte

Artículos de hormigón, cemento y yeso

Artículos textiles (excepto prendas de vestir)

Bebidas no alcohólicas

Calderas, generadoras de vapor de agua y sus partes y piezas

Calzado y partes de calzado

Cemento, cal y yeso

Cuero, curtido o adobado y cuero artificial o regenerado

Depósitos, cisternas y recipientes de hierro, acero o aluminio (con capacidad superior a 300 litros)

Desperdicios de la industria de la alimentación y el tabaco

Desperdicios o desechos metálicos

Desperdicios o desechos no metálicos

Envases de papel y cartón

Equipo de transporte

Equipo y aparatos de radio, televisión y comunicaciones

Fuel oil y bunker (combustibles para calderas)

Gas oil (diesel)

Gases de petróleo y otros hidrocarburos gaseosos

Gasolina

Hilados e hilos; tejidos de fibras textiles, incluso afelpados

Instrumentos musicales

Jabón, preparados para limpiar, perfumes y preparados de tocador

Joyas y artículos conexos

Juegos y juguetes

Kerosina

Madera aserrada o cortada longitudinalmente, madera con librado continuo, madera sin elaborar

Maquinaria de oficina, contabilidad e informática

Maquinaria para usos especiales

Maquinaria para usos generales

Maquinaria y aparatos eléctricos

MUEBLES

Neumáticos y cámaras de aire

Otros artículos manufacturados n.c.p.

Otros productos de caucho n.c.p.

Otros productos de la refinación de petróleo n.c.p.

Otros productos metálicos elaborados n.c.p.

Otros productos minerales no metálicos n.c.p.

Papel periódico, otros papeles y cartones sin revestir, elaborados y ondulados y otros productos de papel y

cartón

Pasta de madera u otras materias celulósicas fibrosas

Piedra de construcción o de talla y sus manufacturas

Pinturas, barnices (incluso esmaltes y lacas), colores para la pintura artística, tinta de imprenta, tintas para

escribir y otras tintas

Plásticos en formas primarias y caucho sintético

Productos básicos de hierro y acero

Productos de cerámica no refractaria para uso no estructural

Productos de cerámica refractaria y de arcilla y cerámica no refractaria para uso estructural

Productos de la edición e impresión

Productos de madera, excepto muebles

Productos de plástico

PRODUCTOS DEL TABACO

Productos farmacéuticos

Productos metálicos estructurales y sus partes

Productos primarios de metales preciosos y metales no ferrosos

Productos químicos básicos

Productos químicos n.c.p. y fibras textiles manufacturadas

Tejidos de punto o ganchillo; prendas de vestir; adobo y teñido de pieles

Vidrio y productos de vidrio; fibra de vidrio y sus manufacturas, excepto tejidos; otros artículos de vidrio

Other wholesale, retail, and services

CIF/FOB SOBRE IMPORTACIONES

Compras directas en el exterior por residentes

Compras directas en el mercado interno por no residentes

Construcciones, excepto servicios generales de construcción

Otros servicios comerciales n.c.p.

Otros servicios de espacimiento y diversiones, n.c.p.

Otros servicios de salud humana

Otros servicios de transporte complementarios y auxiliares

Otros servicios inmobiliarios

Otros servicios n.c.p.

Servicios administrativos del gobierno

Servicios administrativos para el régimen de seguridad social de afiliación obligatoria

Servicios audiovisuales, promoción y presentación relacionados con las artes de interpretación y otros

espectáculos en escena; servicios relacionados con actores y otros artistas.

Servicios auxiliares de la intermediación financiera

Servicios auxiliares de seguros y fondos de pensiones

Servicios de agencias de viajes, organización de viajes en grupo y guias de turismo.

Servicios de alcantarillado y eliminación de desperdicios; servicios de saneamiento y otros servicios de

protección del medio ambiente

Servicios de almacenamiento

Servicios de alquiler de efectos personales y enseres domésticos

Servicios de alquiler de vivienda

Servicios de arquitectura e ingenieria y otros servicios técnicos

Servicios de arrendamiento o alquiler de maquinaria y equipo sin operarios

Servicios de asesoramiento, investigación de mercados e investigación y desarrollo

Servicios de asociaciones que sirven a los hogares

Servicios de bibliotecas, archivos, museos y otras actividades culturales

Servicios de comercio

Servicios de contabilidad, auditoria, teneduría de libros

Servicios de distribución de agua por tubería por cuenta propia

Servicios de distribución de electricidad; y serviciós de distribución de gas por tubería por cuenta propia

SERVICIOS DE ENSEÑANZA

Servicios de hospital

Servicios de informática y servicios conexas

Servicios de intermediación financiera, excepto seguros y fondos de pensiones

Servicios de lavanderia, limpieza y tinte

Servicios de mantenimiento y reparación de otros productos excepto mantenimiento y reparación de vehículos

automotores y motocicletas

Servicios de mantenimiento y reparación de productos metálicos elaborados, maquinaria y equipo

Servicios de mantenimiento y reparación de vehículos automotores y motocicletas

Servicios de organizaciones empresariales y de empleadores

Servicios de producción a comisión o por contrato

Servicios de publicidad

Servicios de radio y televisión por satélite

Servicios de seguro, reaseguro y fondos de pensiones

Servicios de telecomunicaciones

Servicios de tranporte de carga por carretera

Servicios de tranporte de pasajeros por agua, remolque y alquiler de embarcaciones.

Servicios de tranporte de pasajeros por carretera y alquiler de vehículos con conductor

Servicios de tranporte por tuberías

Servicios de transporte de carga por agua

Servicios de transporte de carga por vía aérea

Servicios de transporte de pasajeros por vía aérea y alquiler de aeronaves

Servicios de transporte por ferrocarril

Servicios de tratamientos de belleza y servicios de bienestar físico

Servicios de veterinaria

SERVICIOS DOMÉSTICOS

Servicios generales de construcción

Servicios jurídicos

Servicios médicos y dentales

Servicios para la comunidad en general

Servicios postales y de mensajería

SERVICIOS PRESTADOS POR ORGANIZACIONES Y ENTIDADES EXTRATERRITORIALES

Servicios relacionados con deportes de competición y de esparcimiento; servicios de atletas y auxiliares

conexos.

Servicios relacionados con la distribución de electricidad, gas y agua a comisión o por contrato

SERVICIOS SOCIALES

Prepared or canned fish

Camarones congelados y empacados

Otros productos elaborados de pescado, crustáceos, moluscos, harinas y conservas n.c.p.

Pescado preparado o en conserva, exc. moluscos y crustáceos

Roots and tubers

Otras raíces y tubérculos n.c.p.

Papa

Sugars

Azúcar de caña refinada

Azúcar de caña sin refinar

Los demás azúcares n.c.p.

Melaza

Panela

Vegetables

Arveja china

Brócoli

Cardamomo

Ejote francés

Hierbas frescas culinarias, flores y hojas comestibles

Otras verduras n.c.p.

Repollo

Documents

final report Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static ... · Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium analysis ... a static general equilibrium analysis