Final Policy and Dissemination Workshop of the Central Asia and China Climate Change Research Project

2-3 February 2012, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

High contribution of agriculture to GDP (11% in Kazakhstan, 38% in Kyrgyzstan)

Land degradation Soil salinization (ca 12% in Kyrgyzstan, 50-

60% in Uzbekistan) Agricultural reforms after the independence Limited information on details of agricultural

systems

Soviet literature on farm specializations

Farming systems and poverty (Dixon, 2001)

Info on selectedregions

Need for furtherresearch

Food security Resource use effeciency Identification of vulnarable systems Identification of suitable adaptation options Productivity and effeciency improvement

options Calibration of bio-economic models for CC

impact analysis

country andprovince aridityclass mean max min

Kazakhstan

Akmola semiarid, subhumid 29 275,1 0,01

Almata semiarid 77,75 2,620.60 0,12

Karaganda semiarid 0,14 0,6 0,02

Kostanaya semiarid 773,44 17,138.00 0,01

Kyzylorda arid 3,45 50 0,01SouthKazakhstan semiarid 4,81 25 0,01

Kyrgyzstan

Chui semiarid, subhumid 5,38 35 1

IssykKul humid 3,99 18 0,8Naryn subhumid 5,19 40 0,3Talas semiarid 2,95 30 0,3TajikistanKhatlon semiarid 4,69 86 0,03

RRP semiarid, subhumid 2,05 130 0,06

Sugd arid 3,17 36 0,03UzbekistanAndijan arid, semiarid 18,6 178,5 0,01

Karakalpakstan arid 27,46 205 0,16

Kashkadarya semiarid 23,96 114,6 0,04Tashkent semiarid 34,2 268,9 0,04

country province cotton corn rice

Kazakhstan Almata 36,57SouthKazakhstan 4,87 1,13 7,90

Kyrgyzstan Chui 13,50Talas 0,60

Tajikistan Khatlon 8,22 0,65RRP 0,54 0,30Sugd 6,55 4,53

Uzbekistan Andijan 31,18 0,06 2,75Karakalpakstan 53,85 0,81 12,00Kashkadarya 22,86 1,30Tashkent 32,26 0,99

country province wheat potato barley

Kazakhstan Akmola 0,29 43,33Almata 15,00 1,30 38,58Karaganda 4,00 0,34 3,00Kostanaya 2079,70 2,39Kyzylorda 0,43

South Kazakhstan 2,75 0,11 6,25

Kyrgyzstan Chui 4,79 7,67 3,02Issyk Kul 5,04 2,85 4,50Naryn 1,02 0,29 1,22Talas 3,00 1,85 2,00

Tajikistan Khatlon 3,29 0,17RRP 6,70 0,36Sugd 2,97 0,05 1,00

Uzbekistan Andijan 22,34 0,08Karakalpakstan 12,33 0,30Kashkadarya 24,19 0,07Tashkent 33,34 1,29

N P205 KKazakhstanKostanaya 2,0 7,9KyrgyzstanChui 54,4 63,8TajikistanKhatlon 99,8 26,7 56,0RRP 127,7 55,6Sugd 176,6 61,2 31,1UzbekistanAndijan 164,0 68,7

Karakalpakstan 132,7 78,5 28,0

Kashkadarya 119,5 38,9 18,1Tashkent 113,8 43,2 25,5

Note: Cobb–Douglas production function: fertilizer, seed and fuels

Note: Cobb–Douglas production function: fertilizer, seed and fuels

Farm size, machinery availability, input use, yields and production efficiencies vary from region to region

Moderate yields and high efficiency of wheat production in Tajikistan

Highest efficiency of cotton production in Kazakhstan but lowest yields

High yields, moderate efficiency in Uzbekistan

Moderate yields and moderate efficiency in Kyrgyzstan

Improving access of smal scale farms to input markets

Increasing the access to machinery services Need for technological improvement (e.g.

increasing resource use effeciency) Improving the quality of extension services

(e.g. input use reccomendations)

𝑌𝑌𝑤𝑤 = 𝐶𝐶 + 𝑏𝑏1𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 + 𝑏𝑏2𝑁𝑁𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 + 𝑏𝑏3𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆

Where, • Y_w is the wheat yield• NDVI is the seasonal NDVI

value for April, May and June

• IRR is the dummy variable for irrigated wheat, SUB is the dummy variable for existence of subsidies for inputs and

• b’s are the coefficients to be estimated.

Variable Coef. Std. Err, t P>|t|

NDVI 184,23 58,93177 3,13 0,002

IRR 1196,604 234,8145 5,1 0

SUB 1285,98 125,1964 10,27 0

C 535,2461 318,9528 1,68 0,094

LnYi = b0 + b1LnFi + b2LnSi + b3LnPi + b5Di + (Vi - Ui)

• Ln denotes the natural logarithm (i.e., logarithm to the base e)

• F is fertilizer • S is seed • P is petrol and fuel • D is the dummy

variable for irrigated wheat

Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z|Constant 7,18 0,37 19,52 0,00lnF 0,14 0,04 3,93 0,00lnS -0,04 0,04 -0,95 0,34lnP 0,00 0,06 -0,07 0,95D 0,75 0,34 2,23 0,03

-2,91 0,40 -7,25 0,00

-0,41 0,17 -2,44 0,020,23 0,050,81 0,070,72 0,103,50 0,11

Number of obs 260Wald chi2(4) 67.76Prob > chi2 0.00