Filling the Space Gap in Emerging Countries Opportunities ... · 26/11/2019 Driss. EL HADANI Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale (CRTS) 12 Growing perception of the usefulness

Bridging the Space Divide in Emerging Countries

Filling the Space Gap in Emerging

Countries

Opportunities and Challenges

Driss. EL HADANI

Royal Centre for Remote Sensing

Morocco, Marrakech, 24 April 2019

CRTS

26/11/2019 2Driss. EL HADANI Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale (CRTS)

1700s Financial

Revolution

1800sIndustrial

Revolution

1900s

Space

Era

2000sInformation

age

2020sAge of

Connectivity

Transition Sequence

2030s?Age of AI


TREND # 1

• Globalization of the space sector is accelerating

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Space Actors and Expenditures in the World

1990 = 15 pays

11 Agences

Driss. EL HADANI Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale (CRTS)

Source : Euroconsult

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Contenu2003 = 37 PAYS


4 Agences



Maroc

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2013 = 58 PAYS


2018 = 80+ PAYS




TREND # 2

• Growing perception of the usefulness of space


Growing perception of the usefulness of space

– National Prestige and political advantage



– National Prestige and political advantage– Societal benefits :Many of the socio-economic impacts from

space investments are becoming more visible


EO catalytic benefits – European Case studies examples (Source UE, 2014)

Area Description value Year

Improved weather forecasts ~ 580 to 1470 Mln Euro (Uk economy alone) 2006

Increase efficiency in natural disaster management cycle (conservative estimate, large EO programme)

Reduction of 1% in damages a year = ~ 100 MlnEuro/year (Europe Wide)

2010

(Increased knowledge of climate change variables, case study sea level rise) Reduction of 25% of uncertainly on climate change/sea level forecasts= saving in coastal

protection of ~ 90-100 Mln Euro/year (Europe wide)

2008

(Increased efficiency in sea resources monitoring case study France fish stock) Reduction of 90% of cases of illegal fishing in 1 yearfrom start of service

(French EEZ, specific areas)

2005

(Increased efficiency in detecting fraudulent behaviors, and ensure sustainable land exploitation, case study EU CAP subsidies )

Reduction of frauds from 2% to 0.02%of CAP budget = ~ 1bln Euro/year

Incl. EO satellite contribution (Europe wide)

206-2010

(Increased operational efficiency in Oil spill monitoring, case study CleanSeaNet Reported costs saving in operations ~ 25Mln Euro/year (EMSA Opex)

2007-2011

(Acquisition of sensitive VHR data for usage for defense and security Strategic access to sensitive data to plan militaryoperations

Current

Increase efficiency in precision agriculture, case study Farmstar ) Cost saving in Nitrogen fertiliser and increase in cropyield leading to a net economic benefit ≥ 5 Euro per

hectare of wheat (EU adopters)

2003-Current

(Improved ocean currents modelling for in route vessel optimization) Cost saving in vessel fuel for ~ 4% in average up to 8% (EU adopter)

2011

(Increased efficiency in identification of oil & gas reservoirs and monitoring of oil pipelines) Cost reduction to identity new reservoirs, costsaving in monitor pipelines and in , etc

Current

Meteo

Disaster Mngt

Climate Change

Environment monitoring

Defense

Agriculture

Maritime

Oil & Gas




– Societal benefits

– Agent of economic growth and development



– National Prestige and political advantage– Societal benefits– Agent of economic growth and development

• Cost saving in doing the same things more efficiently.

• Delivery of new products/services producing greater value in the use of resources required to deliver them.

• Dynamic saving within and across sectors of the economy (productivity and efficiency gains).

• Lower costs for governments and regulators in managing environmental, health and social services…

• Better environmental, health and social out comes with resources available.


Typology of socio-economic impacts derived from institutional space investments (Source OCDE, 2014)

Possible impacts Description

Commercial activities: new products and services

● Space industry: new line of commercial activities, new exports contracts (e.g. small satellites, equipment, components)§- Spaceeconomy: new mass market products and services using satellitecapacities (e.g. actors using satellite positioning signals in carnavigation products)§- Other economic sectors: new products basedon transferred technologies (e.g. medical imagery)

Productivity/efficiency gains in diverse economic sectors

● Applicative sectors with documented cases: precision farming,fisheries, land transport…

Costs avoidances ● Public-good nature of many applications: e.g. costs avoided andlived saved thanks to flood forecasts


National assessments of economic returns from space programmes (Source OCDE, 2014)

Country Selected Findings

Belgium 1 Euro : 1.4 Euros (2010)

Denmark 1 Euro : 3.7 up to 4.5 Euros (2008)

Ireland 1 Euro : 3.63 (2012)

Norway 1 Krone: 4.75 Kroner (2013)

Portugal 1 Euro : 2 Euros (2011)

United Kingdom 1 Pound : 1.91 Pound (2010)

26/11/2019 Driss. EL HADANI Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale (CRTS) 15

Global Space Economy (2016) (source : Bryce space and Technology LLC, 2017)

In 2017 the Global Space Economy reached $385 B

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Global Space Economy ($t)$2.0t

$1.75 (x5)

$1.5t

$1.10 (x3)$1.0t

$0.35 $0.62 (x1,7)

$0.0t

$0.5t

20

15

20

16

20

17

e2

01

8e

20

19

e2

02

0e

20

21

e2

02

2e

20

23

e2

02

4e

20

25

e2

02

6e

20

27

e2

02

8e

20

29

e2

03

0e

20

31

e2

03

2e2

03

3e

20

34

e2

03

5e2

03

6e

20

37

e2

03

8e2

03

9e

20

40

e

Bull Case Global Space Economy Bear Case

Une évolution soutenue pour les 20 prochaines années


Source : satellite Industryassociation

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The Structure of the Space Value Chain

UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAMMIDSTREAM

•Manufacture of space

infrastructure and related

subsystems and components

•Launch services

•Programme management

•Satellite operation

•Lease/ sale of satellite

capacity and data

•Support activities (dishes,

satphones, , etc..)

•Data storage, processing

and dissemination

•Space infrastructure

exploitation

•Provision of space-based

products and services to end

users

.

30% 10% 60%



The spin-offs from space investments


The spin-offs from space investments

ESA Business Incubation Centres (ESA BICs)

- healthcare products- improved waste management- water recovery - Transportation- Etc…




– Societal benefits

– Agent of economic growth and development

– Potential for Profitability


TREND # 3

• Increasing Maturity and Falling Cost of Technology


Increasing Maturity and Falling Cost of Technology

– Information and Communications Technology advances

– Other Technological Advances in areas such as miniaturization, power system improvements, advanced materials, 3D printing, and sensors,…


TREND # 4

• Changing National Policies


Changing National Policies

– Export Controls


Changing National Policies

– Export Controls

– Policies to Promote Domestic Industry


TREND # 5

• Space offers an unparalleled instrument to overcome global challenges


TREND # 6

• Space is an enabler of the economic transition


CHALLENGE # 1

• Create the right “Business Model”


CHALLENGE # 2

• Continued ascendancy of consumer/commercial interests.


CHALLENGE # 3

• Difficult to manage the space sector top-down.


CHALLENGE # 4

• Declining asymmetric control for traditional leaders.


CHALLENGE # 5

• Complex global governance.

Pillars of Space Development for emerging countries

Pillar # 1

• Resourcing


Pillar # 1

• Resourcing

Pillar # 2

• Capabilities


Pillar # 1

• Resourcing

Pillar # 2

• Capabilities

Pillar # 3• Governance

26/11/2019 36Driss. EL HADANI Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale

(CRTS)

GLEC 2019

Space for Emerging CountriesMarrakech 24 – 26 April 2019

Filling the Space Gap in Emerging Countries

Opportunities and Challenges

D. EL HADANI

Royal Centre for Remote Sensing

CRTS

Documents

Filling the Space Gap in Emerging Countries Opportunities ... · 26/11/2019 Driss. EL HADANI Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale (CRTS) 12 Growing perception of the usefulness