Filipino Public Opinion Bangsamoro Basic Law Mamasapano Incident

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Analysis: So minds may understand their solutions

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Programme, the World Values Survey, the Asian Barometer, and other

cross-country survey networks.

The 2011Survey on Good Local Governance

Filipino Public Opinionon the

Bangsamoro Basic Lawand the

Mamasapano IncidentS W S F e B rua ry, M a r c h a n d J u n e 2 0 1 5 S u rv e yS

This publication is produced with support from The Asia Foundation (TAF).The opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views ofThe Asia Foundation.

Copyright © 2015 by Social Weather StationsAll rights reserved.

No parts of this monograph may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without, without prior permission from SWS.

The Asia Foundation Project Team

Country RepresentativeSenior Program CoordinatorResults and Monitoring OfficerAssistant Program Officer

Social Weather Stations Project Team

Project DirectorSurvey ConsultantSWR Program ManagerResearch AssistantField ManagerData Processing ManagerData Processing AssistantData Processing Assistant

Photo credits

Nadine RagonjanKarl GroblBaSulTa Contact GroupCol. Romulo QuemadoReynald Ocampo

Steven RoodNadine RagonjanDerkie AlfonsoChristian Hope Reyes

Vladymir Joseph LicudineMahar MangahasChristian Michael EntomaChristine Belle TorresGermelita M. CaronGerardo A. SandovalAileen MontibonJoanne Evangelista

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Ky Johnson

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C O N T E N T S

I. Introduction

II. Survey Findings

A. Effective Means of Dealing with the MILF

B. Views on Islam

C. Nationwide Disposition Toward the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) and the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL)

Approval of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Agreement/Disagreement Regarding Some Proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro

D. Disposition within the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro Toward the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and provisions of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro

E. Knowledge of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and Involvement in Meetings/Consultations on the Proposed BBL

Knowledge of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Extent of Reading Provisions of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Participation in Meetings/Consultations on the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

F. The Mamasapano Incident

Trust in Institutions/Groups Investigating the Mamasapano Incident to Give a Fair Decision Regarding the Case

Person/Group or Institution Who Should be Held Accountable for the Mamasapano Incident

G. Disposition Toward the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

Public Trust in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

Sincerity of the Government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Following the Provisions of the Signed Peace Agreement

On MILF’s Acceptance of the Outcome of the Bangsamoro Elections

On the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s Reliability on Selected Matters Once the Bangsamoro Area is Established

On Bangsamoro Representing the Interest of Lumads, Christians and Muslims

Whether the Fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro Will Curb the Spread of Terrorist Groups in the Country

H. Effects of Peace Issues on Satisfaction with the National Administration

I. Hope for the Bangsamoro

Peace and Development with the New Bangsamoro Government

Perceived Benefit of the Peace Agreement with the MILF

Hope in the Passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law Despite the Mamasapano Incident

Annexes:

A. Survey Background

B. Socio-Demographic Profile of Adult Respondents

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ii Social Weather Stations

Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

i . i n t ro d u c t i o n 1

One of the dilemmas of peace negotiations is how to balance the need for confidentiality in the give-and-take of reaching a resolution with the need for consultation among stakeholders for the widest possible understanding of any agreement and endorsement of the result. This dilemma holds for consultation with elected officials, religious leaders, security forces, government employees – all of whom are important to a successful outcome of negotiations. And even then we are not sure if they represent ordinary citizens.

Beyond consulting leaders, how can the opinions of ordinary citizens be taken into account? One of the glories of working on social issues in the Philippines is that there is access to a great deal of high-quality data from scientific probability samples. Social Weather Stations has for 30 years regularly provided the public and analysts timely and relevant information on the opinions of citizens. In particular, over the past decade SWS has undertaken a number of special surveys in Mindanao so that citizens’ voices can be heard from that crucial arena for the Philippines’ peace and development.

The relation between individual opinions about public issues as aggregated in surveys and political outcomes can be a tricky one. For instance, in the 1982 Barangay Elections, I did a survey with the standard question, “if the election were held today, who would you vote for?” In the mountains of Northern Luzon, the Cordillera, where traditional indigenous culture is still strong, I frequently got the response, “I don’t know – the elders haven’t told us yet who to vote for.”

There are lots of further questions embedded in this topic, such as: is there such a thing as “public opinion” as a whole, rather than just a summation or average of individuals’ opinions? What is the relation between opinions expressed in an interview situation and those expressed on the street or in coffee houses? What is the relation between verbal opinions and actual actions of the individual?

This line of inquiry is particularly acute when dealing with organized political movements. Father Conrado Balweg, leader of the Cordillera People’s Liberation Army (CPLA), told me while I was preparing to do a survey on Autonomy for the Cordillera in 1987 (supported by a grant from The Asia Foundation to the University of the Philippines Baguio’s Cordillera Studies Center) that I was wasting my time – what mattered was the revolutionary analysis and action of the CPLA. At least in this case he was clearly mostly wrong, since Autonomy for the Cordillera that the CPLA has had (until now) as the centerpiece of its political platform depended on ratification in a plebiscite -- which ratification has failed twice thus far.

Since small numbers of activists are able to cause internal wars, the relationship in conflict between mass opinion and political outcomes can be particularly problematic. This ability of a few to carry on fighting is one of the reasons why so many of the sub-national conflicts we see are so long-lasting. In Afghanistan,2 Southern Thailand,3 as well as in Mindanao, The Asia Foundation conducts sample surveys to get people’s opinions, and we wish to make them useful for improving development as well as being scientifically sound.

Polling can be seen as part of building an “inclusive enough” coalition for a peace settlement. The concept comes from the 2011 World Development Report4 and has been suggested for the GPH-MILF peace process. The notion that many officials may have that it is difficult to sell Mindanao peace to the average Filipino can be pernicious – better to ask the citizenry and then transmit that information to the political class. Of course, particular leaders of influence need to be involved: to gauge their reaction to the views of citizens, what they think about particular issues in the negotiations, and how consultations can improve a peace outcome. Both the government and the MILF have been assiduously talking to a wide variety of stakeholders in Mindanao and throughout the country.Negotiators and others involved in peace processes need not slavishly follow public opinion, but it is indeed best to take it into account.

1 Adapted in part from Steven Rood, “Polling for Peace in the Philippines” (InAsia blog of The Asia Foundation; May 30, 2012) http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2012/05/30/polling-for-peace-in-the-philippines/

2 http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/9893 http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/8204 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/WDR2011_Full_Text.pdf

iiiSocial Weather Stations

SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

This particular publication comes at a crucial time in the peace process. The last five years saw both the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) take major steps in attaining a peace agreement that would benefit all Filipinos. In 2012, the government of the Philippines and MILF signed the initial agreement or Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) that seeks an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro. In 2014, the nation witnessed the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) by the government of the Philippines and MILF and the submission of the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to Congress leaders in September by President Benigno Aquino III himself. Both houses of Congress had conducted hearings and were targeting passage of the bill in the first quarter of 2015. Then, on January 25 however, a clash in Mamasapano, Maguindanao occurred between the Special Action Force (SAF) of the Philippine National Police and some members of the MILF and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) because of the SAF mission to kill/arrest two wanted terrorists. This tragic incident was extensively publicized, and caused Congress to postpone the passage of the BBL, thus endangering the timeframe of the peace process between the government and the MILF.

With all of these developments in mind, The Asia Foundation saw the need to continue to record the voice and opinion of Filipinos regarding the still ongoing peace process between the government and the MILF, as it has regularly since 2012. The Asia Foundation supported its longtime partner, Social Weather Stations (SWS) to conduct a special survey in: a) Core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas in Mindanao; and to b) Implement rider questions in its first quarter nationwide Social Weather Survey, in light of the recent developments in the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law and the aftermath of the Mamasapano Incident.

The survey of core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas had a total sample size of 1,900. The sample in Core Bangsamoro territories consisted of:

• 200 in Sulu, • 200 in Basilan, • 200 in Isabela City, • 200 in Tawi-Tawi, • 100 in Lanao del Sur, • 100 in Maguindanao,• 200 in Cotabato City, • 150 in Lanao del Norte near ARMM,5 and • 150 in North Cotabato near ARMM.6

The Nearby areas, meanwhile, had samples of 100 in Zamboanga City, 150 in the rest of Lanao del Norte, and 150 in the rest of North Cotabato province.

On the other hand, the First Quarter Social Weather Survey had its normal total sample size of 1,200, with 300 people each for Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. This means that for some questions we can compare what the average Filipino adult throughout the entire country believes, as compared to the opinion of those in the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro.

The study of core Bangsamoro territories and Nearby areas was done from February 22-March 1, 2015 in selected Mindanao areas. The error margin for this survey is ±2% in total, at the 95% confidence level. On the other hand, the First Quarter Social Weather Survey was done from March 20-23, 2015 for the whole Philippines. The error margin for this survey is ±3% at the national level, at the 95% confidence level. Both surveys utilized face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire with visuals. (See Annex A.)

5 The municipalities of Baloi,Munai, Nunungan, Pantar, Tagoloa, and Tangkal in the province of Lanao del Norte. Residents voted in 2001 to join the expanded ARMM but these municipalities did not since the province as a whole did not vote to join.

6 Thirty-nine barangays in the municipalities of Kabacan, Carmen, Aleosan, Pigkawayan, Pikit, and Midsayap that voted for inclusion in the ARMM during the 2001 plebiscite

iv Social Weather Stations


1Social Weather Stations


I I . S u rv e y F I N D I N g S

A. Effective Means of Dealing with the MILF

Filipinos prefer peaceful means of dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The June 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 48% of adult Filipinos said peaceful negotiations are more effective in dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), 19% said military operations are more effective, and the balance of 33% said military operations and peaceful negotiations are equally effective. [Chart 1]

In the wake of the January 2015 Mamasapano incident, those who say peaceful negotiations are more effective declined by 17 points from 62% in March 2014, preference for military operations rose by 11 points from 9%, while those who said military operations and peaceful negotiations are equally effective rose by 6 points from 29%. We see these opinions are basically unchanged in June 2015, after three months.

Still, in 15 national surveys since December 1999, peaceful negotiations have consistently been seen as more effective in dealing with the MILF compared to military operations. Despite the recent drop in March 2015, the ratio of those who prefer peaceful negotiations to those who prefer military operations is 2 to 1. This finding is worth emphasizing the in face of any calls for “all-out war.”

* '99 * '00 * '01 * '02 * '03 * '04 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * '12 * '13 * '14 * '15 *0

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EFFECTIVE MEANS OF DEALING WITH THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT (MILF), DEC 1999 TO JUN 2015

Peaceful Negotiations

Both are equally effective

Military operations

48%

33%

19%

Q: Ano po sa palagay ninyo ang mas epektibong gawin ng gobyerno ukol sa MILF? (SHOWCARD) MASEPEKTIBO ANG OPERASYONG MILITAR, MAS EPEKTIBO ANG USAPANG PANGKAPAYAPAAN, MAGKASING EPEKTIBO ANG OPERASYONG MILITAR AT USAPANG PANGKAPAYAPAAN

Chart 1

2 Social Weather Stations


B. Views on Islam

Nearly 3 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide have a good opinion of Islam.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly three-fifths (57%) of Filipinos nationwide have a good opinion of Islam, 39% have a not good opinion of Islam, while 4% don’t know/refused/had no answer. [Chart 2]

From September 2005 to October 2008, roughly 2 out of 3 Filipinos nationwide have a good opinion of Islam. Those who have a good opinion of Islam nationwide peaked at 7 out of 10 in September 2010.

Nationwide, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 71% in September 2010, and lowest at 57% in March 2015.

WHETHER THE RESPONDENT HAS A FAVORABLE OPINION OF ISLAM, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

*Net favorable opinion = % Good minus % Not good, correctly rounded.Q. Sa kabuuan, MABUTI o HINDI MABUTI po ba ang inyong pagtingin sa Islam? MABUTI , HINDI MABUTI

Don’tGood Not good know Net*

Sep 2005

Sep 2006

Sep 2007

Oct 2008

Sept 2010

Mar 2015

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+18

Chart 2



But this good opinion is least strong in the Visayas.

Interestingly enough, this good opinion is least strong in the Visayas, where it is sometimes negative. In Chart 2, we have computed the net favorable opinion about Islam by subtracting the not good percentage from the good. As an example, for the nationwide data in Chart 2, in March 2015 we would have 57% good minus 39% not good for a positive net favorable rating of +18.

In September 2010, 4 out of 5 in NCR have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in NCR who have a good opinion of Islam was roughly 7 out of 10 in September 2005 and September 2006, about 2 out of 3 in September 2007 and October 2008, and nearly 3 out of 5 in March 2015. [Chart 3]

In NCR, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 80% in September 2010, and lowest at 56% in March 2015.

In September 2010, nearly 3 out of 4 in Balance Luzon have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Balance Luzon who have a good opinion of Islam was 7 out of 10 in September 2006 and October 2008, and about 2 out of 3 in September 2005, September 2007 and March 2015.

In Balance Luzon, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 73% in September 2010, and lowest at 63% in September 2007.

In September 2007 and September 2010, 1 out of 2 in Visayas have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Visayas who have a good opinion of Islam was roughly 2 out of 5 in September 2005, September 2006, October 2008 and March 2015.

In Visayas, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 53% in September 2007, and lowest at 37% in September 2006 and March 2015.

In September 2006 and September 2010, 4 out of 5 in Mindanao have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Mindanao who have a good opinion of Islam was roughly 3 out of 4 in September 2005, September 2007 and October 2008, and 3 out of 5 in March 2015.

In Mindanao, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 81% in September 2006 and September 2010, and lowest at 60% in March 2015.

RESPONDENTS’ NET* FAVORABLE OPINION OF ISLAM, BY AREA, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

*Net favorable opinion = % Good minus % Not good, correctly rounded.Q. Sa kabuuan, MABUTI o HINDI MABUTI po ba ang inyong pagtingin sa Islam? MABUTI , HINDI MABUTI

* '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * '12 * '13 * '14 * '15 *

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Philippines +18NCR +16

Balance Luzon +34Mindanao +23

Chart 3



A fifth of Filipinos nationwide have extensive or partial but sufficient knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 5% of Filipinos nationwide have extensive knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam, 11% have partial but sufficient knowledge, two-fifths (41%) have little knowledge, and the plurality of 43% have none or almost no knowledge. [Chart 4]

Since September 2005, roughly 1 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide have extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge the teachings and beliefs of Islam, while vast majorities have little/no knowledge of them.

Nationwide, those with extensive knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam was highest at 8% in September 2005, and lowest at 3% in October 2008.

Those with partial but sufficient knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam nationwide were highest at 17% in November 2010, and lowest at 11% in October 2008 and March 2015.

Unsurprisingly, knowledge is greatest in Mindanao which is where most Muslims in the Philippines live (inside and outside the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro). In September 2005, September 2006, September 2007, September 2010 and November 2010, roughly 2 out of 5 in Mindanao have extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge the teachings and beliefs of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Mindanao with extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge was 1 out of 4 in March 2015, and 1 out of 5 in October 2008. [Chart 5]

In Mindanao, those with extensive knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam were highest at 25% in September 2005, and lowest at 6% in October 2008.

Those with partial but sufficient knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam in Mindanao were highest at 29% in November 2010, and lowest at 11% in March 2015.

14Filipino Public Opinion on Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and the Mamasapano Incident

EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE TEACHINGS AND BELIEFS OF ISLAM, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

Q. Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa mga aral at mga pinaniniwalaan ngrelihiyong Islam? Kayo po ba ay may…(SHOWCARD) MALAWAK ANG KAALAMAN, BAHAGYA NGUNITSAPAT ANG KAALAMAN, KAUNTING KAALAMAN, WALA O HALOS WALANG KAALAMAN

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Extensive Partial but Little NoKnowledge sufficient Knowledge Knowledge

Chart 4

EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE TEACHINGS AND BELIEFS OF ISLAM, MINDANAO, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

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Q. Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa mga aral at mga pinaniniwalaan ngrelihiyong Islam? Kayo po ba ay may…(SHOWCARD) MALAWAK ANG KAALAMAN, BAHAGYA NGUNITSAPAT ANG KAALAMAN, KAUNTING KAALAMAN, WALA O HALOS WALANG KAALAMAN

Sep 2005

Sep 2006

Sep 2007

Oct 2008

Sept 2010

Nov 2010

Mar 2015

Extensive Partial but Little NoKnowledge sufficient Knowledge Knowledge

Chart 5



C. Nationwide Disposition Toward the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) and the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL)

Approval of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Only about a fourth of Filipinos nationwide approve of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law; approval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro was greater in previous national surveys.

Beginning with the March 2015 Social Weather Survey, which was the first time respondents were able to be asked about the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL (since it was only submitted to Congress in September 2014), only about a fourth (23% or 24%) of Filipinos nationwide approve of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL, over a fourth (28%) are undecided, while nearly half (48% or 47%) disapprove of it, for a net approval (% approve minus % disapprove) of -24 or -23 in March and June 2015. [Chart 6]

On the other hand, previous national surveys from December 2012 to June 2014 show that approval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro or FAB had been prevailing over disapproval before the Mamasapano Incident of January 2015. Specifically, net approval of the FAB was +22 in both December 2012 and March 2013, rose to +26 in March 2014, and fell to +16 in June 2014. This general approval of the agreement within the peace process was abruptly lost in early 2015.

Disapproval of the proposed BBL in 2015 prevails across all areas of the country. One notable finding is that in Mindanao there are fewer “undecided” respondents than in the rest of the country. This is unsurprising, since residents throughout Mindanao are the most directly affected in the area. [Chart 7]

Chart 6

Chart 7

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Approve Undecided Disapprove Net*

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL OF THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON THE BANGSAMORO (FAB) AND THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW

(BBL), PHILIPPINES, DEC 2012 TO JUN 2015

Approval of the FAB

Approval of the BBL

+22

+22

+26

+16

-24

-23

*Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded.

Dec 2012

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Jun 2014

Mar 2015

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60*Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ng bago at maspinalawak na lugar na awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro? (TALAGANG SANG-AYON, MEDYO SANG-AYON, HINDITIYAK KUNG SANG-AYON O HINDI SANG-AYON, MEDYO HINDI SANG-AYON, TALAGANG HINDI SANG-AYON)

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW, BY AREA, MAR AND JUN 2015

Approve Undecided Disapprove Net*-24

-23

-27

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-21

-15

-33

-22

-23

-37

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015



Agreement/Disagreement Regarding Some Proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro

The 2015 nationwide negative shift in sentiments can be detected in disagreement with proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that the previously neutral to positive attitudes have shifted negative with regard to proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro, namely: 1) The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, 2) Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro, 3) Having an new police force for the Bangsamoro.

Disagreement with the FAB proposal The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 26% agree with the FAB proposal The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, another 26% are undecided, while nearly half (46%) disagree, for a net agreement (% agree minus % disagree) of -19. [Chart 8]

The net agreement of -19 fell by 24 points from +5 in March 2014

Disagreement with the FAB proposal Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly a fourth (23%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro, over a fourth (27%) are undecided, while nearly half (46%) disagree, for a net agreement of -23.

Disagreement with the FAB proposal Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly a third (31%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro, a fifth (21%) are undecided, while nearly half (46%) disagree, for a net agreement of -16.

The net agreement of -16 fell by 34 points from +18 in March 2014.

Chart 8

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Agree Undecided Disagree Net*

OPINION ON SOME PROPOSALS IN THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT OF THE BANGSAMORO, PHILIPPINES,

MAR 2014 AND 2015

The dissolution ofARMM which will bereplaced by an ex-panded autonomousarea which will becalled Bangsamoro

Mar 2014

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.

Mar 2015

Mar 2014

Mar 2015

Mar 2015

Mar 2014

Using Shari’ahnot only in divorceand inheritancecases but also inother cases in theBangsamoro

Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro

+5

-19

+4

-23

+18

-16



Some important provisions of the Framework Agreement were only put to the nationwide respondent pool in March 2015, so we don’t have a comparison over time like we do with the previous table. All we have are the March 2015 results, which also tend to show negative opinion. Thus, the following two charts:

Disagreement with the FAB proposal Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a fourth (26%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, 24% are undecided, while nearly half (47%) disagree, for a net agreement of -21. [Chart 9]

Disagreement with the proposal prevails across all areas in March 2015. In particular, net agreement with the proposal is -18 in Balance Luzon, -21 in NCR, -22 in Mindanao and -27 in Visayas.

Chart 9


OPINION ON THE FAB PROPOSAL: Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, BY AREA, MAR 2015

-21

-21

-18

-27

-22

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

26

30

28

19

28

24

16

25

29

22

47

51

45

46

50




Disagreement with the FAB proposal The election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators instead of directly by the voters prevails nationwide. Disagreement is stronger than for the other proposals since Filipino respondents consistently reject a parliamentary system for the country.

One of the key innovations of the peace process with the MILF was that the FAB proposes that the Bangsamoro shall have a “ministerial” or a parliamentary form of government. This is one change that many advocates for autonomous regions in the Philippines have advocated: in the Cordillera the Cordillera Regional Consultative Commission thought that a parliamentary system for a Cordillera Autonomous Region (which has never been instituted) would be more in keeping with indigenous councils of leaders. In negotiations, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) has long held that a parliamentary system is more in keeping with Muslims’ shura councils. However, it is only in the FAB concluded with the MILF (and the draft BBL) where this provision is found.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a fifth (21%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal The election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators instead of directly by the voters, 22% are undecided, while over half (55%) disagree, for a net agreement of -34. [Chart 10]

Disagreement with the proposal prevails across all areas in March 2015. In particular, net agreement with the proposal is -31 in Mindanao, -33 in Balance Luzon, -36 in Visayas, and -37 in NCR.

In fact, advocates for nationwide constitutional change have also proposed a parliamentary system for the Philippines as a whole. Over the course of ten years, while proposals for a shift from presidential (separation of powers) to a parliamentary system were being debated, Social Weather Stations has asked about this. And by wide margins respondents prefer the presidential system over the parliamentary. This can explain why the response to this proposal for the Bangsamoro at -34 is more negative than to the other proposals surveyed (-16 to -22): to skepticism about the proposal for the Bangsamoro is added skepticism about the specific proposal on the ministerial form of government. [Chart 11]


OPINION ON THE FAB PROPOSAL: The election of a leader who will be called chief minister who will be elected by the legislators

instead of directly by the voters, BY AREA, MAR 2015

-34

-37

-33

-36

-31

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

21

21

21

17

25

22

20

23

25

18

55

58

54

53

56


Presidential Parliamentary

PREFERRED SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT: PRESIDENTIAL OR PARLIAMENTARY?, PHILIPPINES, AUG 1994 TO SEP 2005

*Don’t know/Can’t say and None not shown.

Aug 1994

Sep 1995

Jul 1998

Mar 1999

Mar 2003

Sep 2005

80

81

87

79

77

69

19

18

13

21

23

28

Chart 10

Chart 11



D. Disposition within the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro Toward the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and provisions of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro

As noted in the introduction, a complement to the overall nationwide sample was a set of specific samples throughout the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro. Each province and city had a separate sample to represent them, as did 6 municipalities (grouped together as “Lanao Norte near ARMM”)7 in Lanao del Norte and 39 barangays (grouped together as “Cotabato near ARMM”)8 in North Cotabato.

In this way, we can examine the attitudes of those to whom the Bangsamoro Basic Law is sure to apply (inasmuch as they are to have a plebiscite to see whether they will join in any new Bangsamoro government).

In comparison to the overall nationwide results, in the Core Territories of the Bangsamoro, approval of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law ranges from pluralities to overwhelming majorities.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that approval of the proposed BBL prevails in BaSulTa areas. In particular, net approval of the proposed BBL is higher in Basilan (+48) and Tawi-Tawi (+30) compared to Sulu (+18) and Isabela City (+18). However, it should be noted that the majority of 56% in Sulu are undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +18 net approval indicates the opinion of the minority. [Chart 12]

To a much greater degree, approval of the proposed BBL prevails in Central Mindanao areas. In particular, net approval of the proposed BBL is highest in Cotabato near ARMM (+91), followed by Lanao del Sur (+86), Maguindanao (+80), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+77) and Cotabato City (+71).

So, we see that the citizens to whom the BBL will apply directly do indeed approve of it. And a pattern emerges, where Sulu and Isabela City are, while positive, the least strongly positive of all the areas in the Bangsamoro. Tawi-Tawi and the rest of Basilan island are more positive, and then those Core Territories on the mainland of Mindanao are overwhelmingly positive.

7 The municipalities grouped together as Lanao Norte near ARMM are Baloi, Munai, Nunungan, Pantar, Tagoloan and Tangcal.8 The municipalities and barangays grouped together as Cotabato near ARMM are Carmen: Manarapan, Nasapian; Kabacan:

Nanga-an, Sanggadong, Simbuhay; Midsayap: Damatulan, Kadigasan, Kadingilan, Kudarangan, Central Labas, Malingao, Olandang, Tugal; Pigkawayan: Balacayon, Lower Baguer, Lower Pangangkalan, Patot; Pikit: Bagoaingud, Balatican, Balong, Balungis, Batulawan, Buliok, Gokoton, Kabasalan, Lagunde; and Aleosan: Dunguan, Lower Mingading, Tapodoc, Upper Mingading.

Chart 12

Approve Undecided Disapprove Net*-24

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines 23

3159

3852

9083

7683

93

28

5629

4026

614

1811

5

48

1412

2022

43

662

+18+48+18

+30+86+80+71+77+91

*Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ngbago at mas pinalawak na lugar na awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro? (SHOWCARD) (TALAGANG SANG-AYON, MEDYO SANG-AYON, HINDI TIYAK KUNG SANG-AYON O HINDI SANG-AYON, MEDYO HINDI SANG-AYON, TALAGANG HINDI SANG-AYON)

APPROVAL OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)



The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that pluralities to majorities in Core territories agree with seven proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro, namely:

1) The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro,

2) Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro,

3) Implementing an own banking system like Islamic banking, 4) Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, 5) The election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators

instead of directly by the voters, 6) Having an new police force for the Bangsamoro, and 7) Reducing the number of Armed Forces of the Philippines or AFP soldiers in the Bangsamoro

area.

We see this overall result in the following table, which contain the net results (computed as in Chart 12) for each of the separately sampled parts of the Core Territory [Table 1]. This table demonstrates two things. First, opinion in the Core Territories are much more favorable than is opinion nationwide (the nationwide results are included in the leftmost column for comparison’s sake). Second, the same pattern noted in overall approval of the Bangsamoro Basic Law is found in approval for various proposals from the framework:

• Sulu and Isabela City, though positive, are the least so;• Tawi-Tawi and Basilan are more positive; and• Areas of the Core Territories on mainland Mindanao are overwhelmingly positive.

Here in one table we see a range of proposals from the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro that are generally endorsed by residents of the Core Territory, in contrast to the skepticism of the nationwide public that we previous saw in Charts 8, 9, and 10.

A fundamental issue in the crafting of the Framework Agreement was the relationship between the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and any political arrangement that would come from agreements reached between the MILF and the government. President Aquino himself had

NET AGREEMENT WITH FAB PROPOSALS: PH (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

Tawi- Basi- Is LD LN Cot Cot NPH Tawi Sulu lan City Sur ARMM City Mag ARMM

The dissolution of ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area called Bangsamoro -19 +72 +44 +60 +42 +83 +68 +82 +84 +84

Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the Bangsamoro -23 +59 +43 +52 +40 +74 +74 +80 +84 +76

Implementing an own banking system like Islamic bankingNA +60 +26 +50 +32 +78 +73 +70 +80 +77

Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro-21 +52 +24 +51 +34 +78 +69 +68 +75 +73

The election of a Chief Minister by legislators instead of directly by voters-34 +50 +28 +44 +23 +72 +60 +45 +75 +76

Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro-16 +40 +24 +48 +20 +81 +77 +66 +72 +78

Reducing the number of AFP soldiers in the Bangsamoro areaNA +34 +20 +44 +40 +64 +60 +62 +76 +77


Table 1



pronounced the ARMM a “failed experiment,” and the MILF said that they had repeatedly rejected being anointed heads of the ARMM as part of a settlement. Thus, it was agreed that the ARMM would be abolished and replaced by a new entity to be established under a Bangsamoro Basic Law. As we’ve seen, when asked about this after the January 25 Mamasapano incident, the general Filipino response is negative. Here, in Table 1, we see that those actually in the ARMM (or surrounded by it in the case of Isabela and Cotabato cities) have a positive response.

Since 1977 there has been in effect a Code of Muslim Personal Law (PD 1083) for the Philippines. In negotiations it was agreed that part of the establishment of the Bangsamoro could be the expansion of the jurisdiction of such Muslim law to encompass commercial and criminal subjects. As we see, while this is negatively viewed for the Philippines as a whole, within the Core territories respondents tend to have a favorable response.

Closely connected to the issue of Shari’ah Law in the eyes of Muslims is the issue of Islamic Banking. Muslims are not allowed to accept or pay interest (as in mainstream savings accounts or loans) and should shun companies engaging in anything having to do with alcohol or pork (among other things). There is only one Islamic Bank in the Philippines, Al-Amanah Bank, and negotiators propose to institute a broader system to increase access by Muslims to Islamic Finance. This question was not asked of the broader nationwide public, but we can see that it is endorsed throughout the Core Territories of the Bangsamoro.

One of the controversial questions in discussions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law is the provision, derived from the FAB, is that “The Bangsamoro Government shall develop and administer a professional civil service corps… without prejudice to the power, authority, and duty of the national Civil Service Commission.” This is one of the provisions that is often cited in legislative debates as being unconstitutional, although the Citizens’ Peace Council9 did not feel it was unconstitutional. In any case, in a general survey of ordinary citizens, the question put was whether they agreed with “Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro.”As we have seen, nationwide the responses are negative, but in the Core territories of the Bangsamoro the response is positive.

Noted above (Chart 10) was that the opinion of the general public is negative about having a Chief Minister elected by legislators instead of directly by the citizens. This is connected to a general nationwide disapproval of the parliamentary form of government. Yet, as with all the proposals from the FAB being discussed, respondents in the Core territories of the Bangsamoro do approve of this proposal.

One of the last provisions of the FAB to be agreed upon was for a police force for the Bangsamoro. In drafts of the Basic Law, it is clear that such a police force is part of the overall Philippine National Police. We saw in Chart 8 that while nationwide opinion had in the past been favorable to this provision, after the Mamasapano tragedy involving the Special Action Forces of the PNP, opinion turned negative in 2015. However, in Core territories of the Bangsamoro, we see that the opinion is positive throughout.

Finally, with regard to the Armed Forces of the Philippines, the FAB does not actually call for a reduction in the number of AFP troops in the Bangsamoro, but does call for “redeployment.” When asked about reduction in numbers, the Philippine public nationwide is negative. In the Core territories, by contrast, the opinion is positive. However, it can be noted that in several areas (Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Lanao del Sur) this is the provision that is least positively received. Though still agreeing with reducing the AFP presence in the region, agreement is less strong than for other provisions of the Bangsamoro.

9 On 27 March 2015, exactly a year after the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) was signed by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippine Government, President Benigno S. Aquino III invited five citizens known for their wisdom and integrity to take a close look at the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) now pending in Congress. Manila Archbishop Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, former Chief Justice Hilario Davide, Jr, businessman Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, former Philippine Ambassador to the Holy See and Malta Howard Dee, and founder of Teach Peace, Build Peace Movement Bai Rohaniza Sumndad-Usman accepted the invitation and gathered 27 other responsible and respected leaders from all sectors of society. There were Christians, Muslims, Indigenous Peoples, religious leaders for various faiths, civil society representatives, businessmen, academics, researchers, and youth. Resource persons were also invited.

Through cluster meetings and a National Peace Summit, they independently looked into the provisions of the BBL and offered their collective views and recommendations, each accordingto his/her knowledge, experience, and expertise. According to the Conveners, the summit served as “an avenue for dialogue between and among independent-minded citizens who believe in the importance of understanding the BBL and to discuss its implications for peace and development in our country in a fair and reasonable manner.”

– excerpted from the Executive Summary of the Report of the Peace Council on the Bangsamoro Basic Law. http://www.opapp.gov.ph/sites/default/files/peace-council-report-bbl.pdf



E. Knowledge of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and Involvement in Meetings/Consultations on the Proposed BBL

Knowledge of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Nearly 1 out of 5 of Filipinos nationwide have extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a mere 4% of Filipinos nationwide have extensive knowledge of the Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL, over a tenth (13%) have partial but sufficient knowledge, nearly half (47%) have only a little knowledge, and over a third (36%) have almost nothing or nothing at all. Three months of extensive media coverage of Congressional debates, and some attention to the Peace Council, did not lead to any greater knowledge of the BBL: the June results were essentially the same. [Chart 13]

National surveys from December 2012 to March 2015 show that percentages of those with extensive knowledge of the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro or FAB had ranged from only 4% to 6%, while those with partial but sufficient knowledge ranged from 13% to 21%. Those with extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the FAB had declined in June 2014 and March 2015 compared to March 2014.

Meanwhile, previous national surveys in March 2014 and June 2014 show that percentages of those with extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the FAB Annexes were near the level of knowledge of the FAB itself. Those with extensive knowledge of the FAB Annexes dropped from 3% to 2%, while those with partial but sufficient knowledge dropped from 20% to 14%.

Within the variations in percentages, it certainly does seem that the public is not overall becoming more familiar with these agreements or proposals resulting from the peace process.

5

5

6

4

4

3

2

4

3

20

19

21

16

13

20

14

13

16

42

41

45

49

47

45

44

47

44

32

35

27

31

36

33

40

36

37

PartialExtensive but sufficient Only a little Almost none

EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON THE BANGSAMORO (FAB), THE ANNEXES AND THE PROPOSED

BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES, DEC 2012 TO JUN 2015

Knowledge of the FAB

Knowledge of the

Annexes

Knowledge of the BBL

Dec 2012

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Jun 2014

Mar 2015

Mar 2014

Jun 2014

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Chart 13



By area, those with extensive knowledge of the BBL in March 2015 are higher in Mindanao (9%) compared to Visayas (3%), NCR (2%) and Balance Luzon (2%). Meanwhile, those with partial but sufficient knowledge are higher in NCR (18%) and Balance Luzon (15%) compared to Visayas (10%) and Mindanao (10%). However, by June of 2015 those in NCR with partial but sufficient knowledge has grown to 26%, perhaps reflecting the media coverage available in Metro Manila.

In the Visayas, consistently higher proportions purport to have almost no knowledge of the BBL. [Chart 14]

Knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law is higher in the Core Territories, ranging up to slight majorities having extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the proposed law.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found minorities to slight majorities in Core territories who have extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL.

The percentage of those with extensive knowledge of the BBL in BaSulTa areas is higher at 11% in Tawi-Tawi, followed closely by 9% in Basilan, 8% in Sulu and 4% in Isabela City. Meanwhile, there are more with partial but sufficient knowledge of the BBL in Basilan (32%), Isabela City (30%) and Tawi-Tawi (26%) compared to Sulu (18%). [Chart 15]

On the other hand, the percentage of those with extensive knowledge of the BBL in Central Mindanao areas is highest at 32% in Lanao del Sur, followed by 21% in Cotabato near ARMM, 11% in Lanao del Norte near ARMM, 8% in Cotabato City and 5% in Maguindanao. Meanwhile, there are more with partial but sufficient knowledge of the BBL in Cotabato near ARMM (33%) compared to Cotabato City (26%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (25%), Maguindanao (24%) and Lanao del Sur (20%).

In sum, while knowledge is more extensive in the Core Territories of the Bangsamoro than it is nationwide, only in a couple of localities do a majority of the respondents have sufficient or extensive knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

Chart 14

Chart 15

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Q: Paano niyo po ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa panukalang batas na ito? Kayo po ba ay may… (SHOWCARD) na kaalaman? (MALAWAK, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT, KAUNTI LAMANG, HALOS WALA O WALA)


EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND

CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

4

8

9

4

11

32

5

8

11

21

13

18

32

30

26

20

24

26

25

33

47

38

35

46

30

44

47

42

46

41

36

35

23

20

32

4

24

24

19

6

Philippines

4

3

2

4

2

3

3

4

9

3

13

16

18

26

15

16

10

14

10

13

47

44

47

39

49

46

40

37

48

48

36

37

33

31

34

35

47

44

33

36Q: Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa panukalang batas na ito? Kayo po ba ay may… (MALAWAK, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT, KAUNTI LAMANG, HALOS WALA O WALA) na kaalaman?

EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), BY AREA, MAR AND JUN 2015

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015




Extent of Reading Provisions of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

About a fourth of Filipinos nationwide have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that only 3% of Filipinos nationwide have read all of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL, a fifth (21%) have read some of them, while the majority of three-fourths (76%) have not yet read any of them. [Chart 16]

By area, percentages of those who have read all/some provisions of the proposed BBL in March 2015 are higher in Balance Luzon (28%) and Mindanao (25%) compared to Visayas (19%) and NCR (14%). Only 8% in Mindanao have read all of the provisions of the proposed BBL compared to 1% in Balance Luzon, 0.3% in Visayas and none in NCR. Meawhile, over a fourth in Balance Luzon (27%) have read some of the provisions of the proposed BBL compared to nearly a fifth in Visayas (19%) and Mindanao (17%) and over a tenth in NCR (14%). But we see in Slide 56 no increase over time in reading provisions between March and June 2015.

More in Core territories compared to have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Core territories compared to the nation as a whole have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

In BaSulTa areas, the percentage of those who have read all of the provisions of the proposed BBL is higher at 9% in Tawi-Tawi, followed closely by 8% in Basilan, 6% in Isabela City and 4% in Sulu. Meanwhile, there are more who have read some of the provisions of the proposed BBL in Isabela City (42%) and Basilan (39%) compared to Sulu (23%) and Tawi-Tawi (23%). [Chart 17]

In Central Mindanao areas, the percentage of those who have read all of the provisions of the proposed BBL is highest at 22% in Lanao del Sur, followed distantly by 8% in Cotabato near ARMM, 4% in Cotabato City, 3% in Lanao del Norte near ARMM and 2% in Maguindanao. Meanwhile, there are more who have read some of the provisions of the proposed BBL in Cotabato near ARMM (52%), Lanao del Sur (46%) and Cotabato City (41%) compared to Maguindanao (31%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (31%).

8

21

23

14

19

27

23

19

26

17

23

76

76

86

79

72

76

81

73

75

75

EXTENT OF READING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), BY AREA, MAR AND JUN 2015

Q: Tungkol naman po sa mga probisyon sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), ang mga ito po ba ay inyo nang (NABASA NANG LAHAT, ILAN PA LANG ANG NABASA, WALA PANG NABASA)?

Read all Read some Not yet read any

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

Mar 2015

Jun 2015

1

3

1

1

1

0.3

1

1

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines

Q: Tungkol naman po sa mga probisyon sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), ang mga ito po ba ay inyo nang (READ OUT) NABASA NANG LAHAT, ILAN PA LANG ANG NABASA, WALA PANG NABASA?

3

4869

22243

8

21

233942

2346

3141

3152

76

735351

6932

6756

6540


EXTENT OF READING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND

CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

Chart 16

Chart 17



Nearby areas to the Core Territory resemble the nationwide readership of the proposed law, less readership than the Core territories.

As noted in the Introduction, some areas nearby the Core Territories were also sampled. Residents of those areas are unlikely to become part of the Bangsamoro10 but they will be affected by its establishment and their opinions are important.

We can see that, unlike those in the Core Territories, much smaller percentages in Nearby areas have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed BBL. In particular, those who have read all of the provisions of the proposed BBL is merely 3% in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, 1% in the Rest of Cotabato and none in Zamboanga City. Meanwhile, those who have read some of the provisions of the proposed BBL is 13% in Zamboanga City, 13% in the Rest of Cotabato and 8% in the Rest of Lanao del Norte. [Chart 18]

10 Zamboanga City, under Philippine jurisprudence, is not “contiguous” to any part of the Core Territory, so no part of the city is eligible to join the plebiscite establishing the Bangsamoro. Depending on the exact provisions of the law as passed by Congress, some areas of Lanao del Norte (other than the 6 municipalities included in the Core Territory) and some areas of North Cotabato (aside from the 39 barangays included in the Core Territory) may or may not be eligible to petition to join the plebiscite.

Chart 18

Zamboanga City

Rest of LanaoDel Norte

Philippines

Q: Tungkol naman po sa mga probisyon sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), ang mga ito po ba ay inyo nang (READ OUT) NABASA NANG LAHAT, ILAN PA LANG ANG NABASA, WALA PANG NABASA?


3

0

3

1

21

13

8

13

76

87

89

86Rest of Cotabato

Province

EXTENT OF READING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND

NEARBY AREAS (FEB 2015)



Participation in Meetings/Consultations on the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

More in Central Mindanao areas compared to BaSulTa areas have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Central Mindanao areas compared to BaSulTa areas have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

In BaSulTa areas, the percentage of those who have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed BBL is higher at 16% in Basilan compared to 10% in Isabela City, 6% in Sulu and 6% in Tawi-Tawi. [Chart 19]

On the other hand, larger percentages in Central Mindanao areas have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed BBL. In particular, those who have attended any meeting or consultation are higher at 51% in Lanao del Sur, 45% in Cotabato near ARMM and 40% in Lanao del Norte near ARMM compared to 24% in Cotabato City and 22% in Maguindanao.

Interestingly, it is those areas that most approve of the proposed Basic Law that have the highest percentage of respondents who say they have been to meetings or consultations about the law. As often happens in social science, we are not sure whether those who go to meetings are persuaded to approve, or those who already approve are more likely to go to meetings or consultations. In all likelihood, it is a mixture of both effects.

Chart 19

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. near ARMM

Q: Kayo po ba ay personal nang nakapunta sa kahit na anong pagpupulong o konsultasyon tungkol sapanukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law? NAKAPUNTA NA SA KAHIT NA ANONG PAGPUPULONG O KONSULTASYON, HINID PA NAKAPUNTA SA KAHIT NA ANONG PAGPUPULONG O KONSULTASYON

6

16

10

6

51

22

24

40

45

90

83

89

92

48

78

76

60

55

Have attended Have not attended

EXPERIENCE OF GOING TO ANY MEETING OR CONSULTATION REGARDING THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL),

CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015



F. The Mamasapano Incident

On January 25, 2015, a raid by Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police, aimed at a wanted terrorist known as Marwan, tragically resulted in the deaths of 44 of the Special Action Force, 17 Moro Islamic Liberation Front fighters, and 7 civilians. This event generated enormous coverage in the media, and a number of investigations were launched to understand what happened. In the March survey after some of the reports11 had come out, respondents nationwide were asked about the incident, including their judgment on those undertaking investigations12, and who should be held responsible.

Trust in Institutions/Groups Investigating the Mamasapano Incident to Give a Fair Decision Regarding the Case

In giving a fair decision in their respective investigations of the Mamasapano incident, BOI of the PNP and the Senate are trusted by Filipinos, opinion is mixed toward the House of Representatives, while the MILF is distrusted.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, in giving a fair decision regarding their respective investigations of the Mamasapano incident, the Board of Inquiry of the PNP and the Senate are trusted by Filipinos, opinion is mixed toward the House of Representatives, while the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is distrusted. [Chart 20]

While this question was only put to those respondents who were aware of the institutions or groups, on this subject 98 or 99 percent are indeed aware. This is testimony to the widespread media attention given to the incident.

In fact, the March 2015 Social Weather Survey shows that 70% of Filipinos nationwide followed the news of the Mamasapano clash very/somewhat closely. In addition, those who followed the news of the Senate and House investigation on the SAF deaths in the Mamasapano clash very/somewhat closely were 66%. Meanwhile, only 46% followed the news of the Legislation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) very/somewhat closely.

11 The Philippine National Police Board of Inquiry released The Mamasapano Report on March 13, 2015 - http://pnp.gov.ph/portal/images/boimamasapano/boi_final.pdf; The Senate Report on the Mamasapano Clash was made public on March 17, 2015 - http://www.gracepoe.ph/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FINAL-MAMASAPANO-COMMITTEE-REPORT.pdf; and The Moro Islamic Liberation Front Special Investigative Commission submitted their Report on the Mamasapano Incident on March 23, 2015 to the Committee on Public Order and Dangerous Drugs - https://themanilajourno.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/milf-mamasapano-report-march-2015.pdf.

12 The February special survey in Core Territories of the Bangsamoro and Nearby Areas was undertaken too soon after the Mamasapano incident to have questions about investigations included.

Chart 20

Much trust Undecided Little trust Net*

*Net figures (% Much Trust minus % Little Trust) correctly rounded.Q: Maaari po bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano KALAKI o KALIIT ang inyong pagtitiwala sa mga institusyon ogrupong ito na makapagbibigay ang mga ito ng makatarungang desisyon ukol sa kasong ito. Masasabi po baninyo na kayo ay may NAPAKALAKING PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALAKING PAGTITIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNGMALAKI O MALIIT ANG PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA, NAPAKALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA OWALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (INSTITUSYON/GRUPO)?

TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS/GROUPS INVESTIGATING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING

THE CASE, PHILIPPINES, MAR 2015

50 18 30

40 26 32

50 24 24

25 26 46

+25

+21

+ 8

- 21

Senate investigation

PNP Board of Inquiry (BOI)

House of Rep.investigation

MILFinvestigation



Among Filipinos aware of the Board of Inquiry of the Philippine National Police, 1 out of 2 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 98% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Board of Inquiry of the Philippine National Police, half (50%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 24% are undecided, while another 24% have little trust, for a moderate net trust of +25. [Chart 21]

By area, net trust in the investigation of the Board of Inquiry of the Philippine National Police is higher in Mindanao (+29), NCR (+28) and Balance Luzon (+25) compared to Visayas (+19).

Among Filipinos aware of the Senate, 1 out of 2 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 99% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Senate, half (50%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 18% are undecided, while 30% have little trust, for a moderate net trust of +21. [Chart 22]

By area, net trust in the investigation of the Senate is slightly higher in Visayas (+25), NCR (+23) and Mindanao (+21) compared to Balance Luzon (+18).

Chart 22

Chart 21

TRUST IN THE PNP BOARD OF INQUIRY TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao


*Net figures (% Much Trust minus % Little Trust) correctly rounded.Q: Maaari po bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano KALAKI o KALIIT ang inyong pagtitiwala sa mga institusyon o grupong ito na makapagbibigay ang mga ito ng makatarungang desisyon ukol sa kasong ito. Masasabi po baninyo na kayo ay may NAPAKALAKING PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALAKING PAGTITIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT ANG PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA, NAPAKALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (INSTITUSYON/GRUPO)?

+25

+28

+25

+19

+29

50

53

49

44

54

24

21

25

29

21

24

25

24

24

25

TRUST IN THE SENATE INVESTIGATION TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

+21

+23

+18

+25

+21

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao



50

53

50

49

51

18

15

17

25

18

30

31

32

24

29



Among Filipinos aware of the House of Representatives, 2 out of 5 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 98% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the House of Representatives, two-fifths (40%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 26% are undecided, while 32% have little trust, for a neutral net trust of +8. [Chart 23]

By area, net trust in the investigation of the House of Representatives is higher in Visayas (+15) and Mindanao (+12) compared to Balance Luzon (+5) and NCR (+2).

Among Filipinos aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, 1 out of 4 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 98% Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a fourth (25%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 26% are undecided, while nearly half (46%) have little trust, for a poor net trust of -21. [Chart 24]

Distrust in the investigation of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front prevails across areas in March 2015. In particular, net trust is -14 in Mindanao, -16 in Visayas, -24 in Balance Luzon and -29 in NCR.

Chart 24

Chart 23

TRUST IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES INVESTIGATION TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO

INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao



40

39

38

39

44

26

22

26

33

22

32

37

34

25

32

+8

+2

+5

+15

+12

TRUST IN THE MILF INVESTIGATION TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao


*Net figures (% Much Trust minus % Little Trust) correctly rounded.Q: Maaari po bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano KALAKI o KALIIT ang inyong pagtitiwala sa mga institusyon o grupong ito na makapagbibigay ang mga ito ng makatarungang desisyon ukol sa kasong ito. Masasabi poba ninyo na kayo ay may NAPAKALAKING PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALAKING PAGTITIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT ANG PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA, NAPAKALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (INSTITUSYON/GRUPO)?

-21

-29

-24

-16

-14

25

25

23

23

31

26

19

29

33

19

46

54

47

39

45



Person/Group or Institution Who Should be Held Accountable for the Mamasapano Incident

Nearly half of Filipinos nationwide cited President Noynoy Aquino as the one who should be held accountable for the Mamasapano incident.

When asked about the person/group or institution who should be held accountable for the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP, 18 members of the BIAF of the MILF and 3 civilians in Mamasapano, Maguindanao, nearly half (47%) of Filipinos nationwide cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino, a fourth (27%) cited Gen. Alan Purisima and 10% cited the MILF. Smaller percentages cited Gen. Getulio Napeñas (7%), the SAF/Police (6%), the BIFF (3%), the National Government (3%), the PNP Chief (3%), Sec. Mar Roxas (1%), the AFP/Military (1%), Gen. Leonardo Espina (1%), Muslims/Muslim Rebels (1%) and Others (6%). There are 2% who said that no one is accountable, while 12% Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say. [Table 2]

Across areas, Pres. Aquino is the most cited person who should be held accountable for the Mamasapano incident, followed by Gen. Alan Purisima. Percentages of those who cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino are higher in Balance Luzon (53%) compared to Mindanao (44%), Visayas (42%) and NCR (41%). On the other hand, those who cited Gen. Alan Purisima are higher in Balance Luzon (32%) and Visayas (28%) compared to NCR (20%) and Mindanao (17%).

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that, in Core territories, nearly a fifth (18%) cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino as the one who should be held accountable for Mamasapano incident, 15% cited the SAF/Police, 11% cited Gen. Alan Purisima and 11% cited the National Government. Smaller percentages cited Gen. Getulio Napeñas (5%), the MILF (3%), the PNP Chief (3%), the AFP/Military (3%), Sec. Mar Roxas (1%) and Others (7%), while a fourth (25%) Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say. This high level of nonresponse may reflect a reluctance to express an opinion in the areas most immediately affected by the tragic incident.

In Nearby areas, meanwhile, two out of five (41%) cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino as the one who should be held accountable for Mamasapano incident, 15% cited Gen. Alan Purisima, 14% cited the MILF and 12% cited the National Government. Smaller percentages cited the SAF/Police (6%), Gen. Getulio Napeñas (3%), the BIFF (3%), the PNP Chief (1%), Sec. Mar Roxas (1%), the AFP/Military (1%), Gen. Leonardo Espina (1%) and Others (8%), while 9% Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say.

The Joint National Bureau of Investigation - National Prosecution Service Special Investigation Team (NBI-NPS SIT) submitted its Report on the January 25, 2015 Mamasapano Incident to Secretary Leila De Lima of The Department of Justice (DOJ) on April 16, 2015. After reviewing the report, Sec. De Lima gave the go signal to release the same to the public on April 22, 2015. Below is an excerpt from the news article13 on the DOJ website:

“…the NBI-NPS SIT has recommended the filing of charges of Direct Assault complexed with Murder or the Complex Crime of Direct Assault with Murder under Article 148, in relation to Article 248 of the Revised Penal Code (RPC), as well as Theft under Article 308, RPC for the taking of the firearms, other fighting equipment and various personal belongings of the SAF commandos, against ninety (90) suspects…”

13 Excerpted from The Department of Justice news article dated 22 April 2015. The full text of the MamasapanoNBI-NPSSITReport is available to the public at: http://www.doj.gov.ph/files/news/Mamasapano_NBI-NPS_SIT_Report_REDACTED.pdf

Table 2

Q: Sino po sa tingin ninyo ang dapat managot sa pagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAFng Philippine National Police (PNP), 18 miyembro ng Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces o BIAF ng MILF at sa 3 nasibilyan sa Mamasapano, Maguindanao? (OPEN-END; ALLOW MULTIPLE RESPONSE)

PERSON/GROUP OR INSTITUTION THAT SHOULD BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, PHILIPPINES

(MAR 2015) AND CORE AND NEARBY AREAS (FEB 2015)

Core NearbyPH NCR Luz Vis Min Territories Areas

Pres. Noynoy Aquino 47% 41% 53% 42% 44% 18% 41%Gen. Alan Purisima 27 20 32 28 17 11 15MILF 10 9 10 10 11 3 14Gen. Getulio Napeñas 7 9 9 5 6 5 3SAF/Police 6 9 3 2 13 15 6BIFF 3 3 4 1 5 0 3National Government 3 3 2 2 5 11 12PNP Chief 3 3 2 2 5 3 1Sec. Mar Roxas 1 2 1 1 1 1 1AFP/Military 1 1 1 1 1 3 1Gen. Leonardo Espina 1 2 1 0 0 0 1Don't Know/Can't Say 12 12 13 14 8 25 9Others 6 9 4 6 7 7 8No One Is Accountable 2 3 2 4 1 -- --Muslims/Muslim Rebels 1 1 1 1 1 -- --

Mar 2015 Feb 2015



In addition, a press release14 from the Office of the Ombudsman dated July 22, 2015 reads in part:

“Ombudsman Conchita Carpio Morales approved the recommendation of the special panel of field investigators to initiate administrative adjudication and preliminary investigation against former PDG Alan Purisima, PDir. Getulio Napeñas and nine other police officers in relation to what is known as the “Mamasapano incident.”

Purisima, Napeñas and PCSupt. Fernando Mendez Jr. face charges of Grave Misconduct, and violation of Section 3(a) of the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices (Republic Act No. 3019). Purisima also faces a charge of Usurpation of Official Functions under Article 177 of the Revised Penal Code (RPC).

Purisima and Napeñas are likewise charged with Neglect of Duty along with PCSupt. Noli Taliño, PSSupt. Richard Dela Rosa, PSSupt. PSSupt. Edgar Monsalve, PSSupt. Abraham Abayari, PSSupt. Raymund Train, PSSupt. Michael John Mangahis, PSSupt. Rey Ariño and PSInsp. Recaredo Marasigan.”

G. Disposition Toward the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

Public Trust in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

Among Filipinos aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF, nearly 1 out of 5 have much trust in them, while 3 out of 5 have little trust.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 100% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF, nearly a fifth (16%) have much trust in them, 19% are undecided, while three-fifths (61%) have little trust, for a bad net trust of -45. [Chart 25]

Net trust in the MILF fell by 15 points to -45 in March 2015, from -30 in September 2014. In 28 survey rounds from March 1995 to March 2015, net trust in the MILF had been poor (-10 to -29) 7 times, bad (-30 to -49) 15 times, and very bad (-50 to -69) 6 times. The negative trust rating was least negative just after the late 2012 signing of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro, and was lessened in September 2014 when the draft Basic Law was submitted to Congress. However, after Mamasapano it plunged once again and did not recover by June 2015.

14 Excerpted from the Office of the Ombudsman press release dated 22 July 2015 - http://www.ombudsman.gov.ph/index.php?home=1&pressId=Njg4

Chart 25

* '95 * '96 * '97 * '98 * '99 * '00 * '01 * '02 * '03 * '04 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * '12 * '13 * '14 * '15 *

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

TRUST IN THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT (MILF), MAR 1995 TO JUN 2015

*Net figures (% Much trust minus % Little trust) correctly rounded.

Net* trust

Much trust

Little trust

15%

57%

-42



Sincerity of the Government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Following the Provisions of the Signed Peace Agreement

Nearly 3 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly a fifth (17%) of Filipinos nationwide think that the government is very sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, two-fifths (41%) think they are somewhat sincere, 23% think they are a little sincere, while 17% think they are insincere. [Chart 26]

Majorities across areas think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

In particular, those who think that the government is very sincere are higher in Mindanao (27%) and NCR (23%) compared to Visayas (16%) and Balance Luzon (12%).

Those who think that the government is somewhat sincere are higher in Balance Luzon (44%) and Visayas (44%) compared to NCR (35%) and Mindanao (35%).

On the other hand, those who think that the government is a little sincere are slightly higher in Balance Luzon (24%) and Mindanao (24%) compared to Visayas (20%) and NCR (19%).

Those who think that the government is insincere are slightly higher in NCR (21%), Balance Luzon (18%) and Visayas (18%) compared to Mindanao (14%).

Chart 26

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF GOVERNMENT IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT (MILF), BY AREA, MAR 2015

17

23

12

16

27

41

35

44

44

35

23

19

24

20

24

17

21

18

18

14

Very Somewhat A little sincere sincere sincere Insincere

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang PAMAHALAAN po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahangkasunduang pangkapayapaan sa Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)? (SHOWCARD)



The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that, in BaSulTa areas,majorities in Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and Isabela City think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the MILF, while the reverse pattern is observed in Sulu. [Chart 27]

Those who think that the government is very sincere is higher in Basilan (18%) and Tawi-Tawi (18%) compared to Sulu (14%) and Isabela City (11%).

Those in who think that the government is somewhat sincere is higher in Basilan (42%), Isabela City (41%) and Tawi-Tawi (41%) compared to Sulu (31%).

On the other hand, those who think that the government is a little sincere is higher in Sulu (46%) and Isabela City (40%) compared to Basilan (31%) and Tawi-Tawi (28%).

Those who think that the government is insincere hardly differ between Tawi-Tawi (12%), Sulu (10%), Basilan (10%) and Isabela City (8%).

Majorities across Central Mindanao areas think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the MILF.

In Central Mindanao areas, those who think that the government is very sincere is much higher in Lanao del Sur (54%) compared to Lanao del Norte near ARMM (35%), Cotabato near ARMM (31%), Maguindanao (15%) and Cotabato City (14%).

Those who think that the government is somewhat sincere is much higher in Maguindanao (55%), Cotabato near ARMM (55%), Cotabato City (52%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (47%) compared to Lanao del Sur (29%).

On the other hand, those who think that the government is a little sincere is higher in Cotabato City (22%) compared to Maguindanao (15%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (10%), Lanao del Sur (7%) and Cotabato near ARMM (6%).

Those who think that the government is insincere is slightly higher in Maguindanao (15%) compared to Cotabato City (12%), Lanao del Sur (10%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (8%) and Cotabato near ARMM (7%).

Overall we see the familiar pattern where Sulu and Isabela City are the most skeptical, Basilan and Tawi-Tawi less so (resembling the nationwide results), and Core territories in mainland Mindanao the most positive.

Chart 27

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines


17

14

18

11

18

54

15

14

35

31

41

31

42

41

41

29

55

52

47

55

23

46

31

40

28

7

15

22

10

6

17

10

10

8

12

10

15

12

8

7Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang PAMAHALAAN po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduang pangkapayapaan sa Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)? (SHOWCARD)

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF GOVERNMENT IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE MILF,

PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)



Nearly 3 out of 10 Filipinos nationwide think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 7% of Filipinos nationwide think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government, a fifth (21%) think they are somewhat sincere, 27% think they are a little sincere, while over two-fifths (43%) think they are insincere. [Chart 28]

Majorities across areas think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere/insincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government. In fact, pluralities across all areas think that the MILF is insincere.

In particular, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere are higher in Mindanao (16%) compared to Visayas (5%), NCR (4%) and Balance Luzon (4%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is somewhat sincere are higher in NCR (25%), Balance Luzon (23%) and Visayas (20%) compared to Mindanao (16%).

On the other hand, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere are higher in Balance Luzon (33%) compared to Visayas (24%), NCR (22%) and Mindanao (21%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insincere are higher in Visayas (49%), NCR (47%) and Mindanao (46%) compared to Balance Luzon (38%).

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF THE MILF IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE

GOVERNMENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015Very Somewhat A little

sincere sincere sincere Insincere

7

4

4

5

16

21

25

23

20

16

27

22

33

24

21

43

47

38

49

46

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mgaprobisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduang pangkapayapaan sa gobyerno? (SHOWCARD)

Chart 28



The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that, in BaSulTa areas, majorities in Basilan and Tawi-Tawi think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government, while opinion is split in Sulu and Isabela City. [Chart 29]

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere is higher in Basilan (26%) and Tawi-Tawi (25%) compared to Sulu (13%) and Isabela City (12%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is somewhat sincere hardly differ between Basilan (40%), Tawi-Tawi (38%), Isabela City (37%) and Sulu (36%).

On the other hand, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere is higher in Sulu (38%) and Isabela City (37%) compared to Basilan (24%) and Tawi-Tawi (24%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insincere hardly differ between Isabela City (14%), Sulu (13%), Tawi-Tawi (13%) and Basilan (10%).

Large majorities across Central Mindanao areas think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government.

In Central Mindanao areas, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (83%) and Lanao del Sur (76%) compared to Maguindanao (65%), Cotabato City (62%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (60%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is somewhat sincere is higher in Maguindanao (29%), Cotabato City (24%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (24%) compared to Lanao del Sur (18%) and Cotabato near ARMM (16%).

On the other hand, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere is higher in Cotabato City (12%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (10%) compared to Lanao del Sur (3%), Maguindanao (3%) and Cotabato near ARMM (1%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insincere is slightly higher in Lanao del Norte near ARMM (6%) compared to Lanao del Sur (3%), Maguindanao (3%), Cotabato City (2%) and Cotabato near ARMM (1%).

In Chart 29 we see the familiar pattern of Sulu and Isabela City being the most skeptical, but in this instance even those areas have a higher opinion of the sincerity of the MILF than does the nationwide citizenry.

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines


7

13

26

12

25

76

65

62

60

83

21

36

40

37

38

18

29

24

24

16

27

38

24

37

24

3

3

12

10

1

43

13

10

14

13

3

3

2

6

1

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF THE MILF IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE

GOVERNMENT, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduangpangkapayapaan sa gobyerno? (SHOWCARD)

Chart 29



On MILF’s Acceptance of the Outcome of the Bangsamoro Elections

Pluralities of Filipinos nationwide do not believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win.

This is a crucial question in considering the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law, and the peace process more generally, since the MILF has repeatedly asserted that their negotiations are not for the organizational benefit of the MILF but rather to solve the Bangsamoro problem more generally. In particular, the MILF has offered assurances that should they lose elections in the Bangsamoro, they would accept the result and step down from any office they held.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that one-fifth (21%) of Filipinos nationwide believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win, 35% are undecided, while over two-fifths (44%) do not believe, for a net score of -23. [Chart 30]

Pluralities across areas do not believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, net scores are -21 in Balance Luzon, -22 in Mindanao, -25 in Visayas and -30 in NCR.

Chart 30

BELIEF THAT THE MILF WILL ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF THE BANGSAMORO ELECTIONS EVEN IF THEY DO NOT WIN,

BY AREA, MAR 2015

21

19

21

17

25

35

31

37

41

29

44

49

42

42

46

-23

-30

-21

-25

-22

Believe Undecided Do not Believe Net*

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do Not Believe) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na tatanggapin ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ang magigingresulta ng halalan sa bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro, kahit nahindi sila ang mananalo dito? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNGNANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA)



Pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win; majorities in Nearby areas do not believe this.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. [Chart 31]

Opinion in BaSulTa areas leans toward believing that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, the net score is higher in Basilan (+44) compared to Tawi-Tawi (+26), Isabela City (+22) and Sulu (+21). However, it should be noted that the majority of 55% in Sulu are undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +21 net score indicates the opinion of the minority.

To a greater extent, opinion in Central Mindanao leans toward believing that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, net scores are higher in Maguindanao (+54), Lanao del Sur (+52), Cotabato near ARMM (+49) and Cotabato City (+48) compared to Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+29).

In contrast, opinion in Nearby areas leans toward not believing that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, the net scores are -21 in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, -43 in the Rest of Cotabato and -53 in Zamboanga City. [Chart 32]

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines

Do notBelieve Undecided believe Net*

-23

+21

+44+22

+26

+52

+54

+48

+29

+49*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do not believe) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na tatanggapin ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ang magiging resultang halalan sa bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro, kahit na hindi sila angmananalo dito?


PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

21

3358

4347

7265

5849

69

35

5528

3631

824

3231

11

44

1214

212220

1110

2020

Chart 31

Chart 32

Zamboanga City


Rest of CotabatoProvince

-53

-21

-43

*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do not believe) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na tatanggapin ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ang magiging resultang halalan sa bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro, kahit na hindi sila angmananalo dito?


21

13

22

16

35

21

35

25

44

66

43

59

Philippines -23


NEARBY AREAS, FEB 2015



On the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s Reliability on Selected Matters Once the Bangsamoro Area is Established

Over two-fifths of Filipinos nationwide disagree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a fourth (25%) of Filipinos agree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established, 29% are undecided, while a plurality of over two-fifths (44%) disagree, for a net agreement of -18. [Chart 33]

Across areas, disagreement with The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established prevails among pluralities in March 2015. In particular, net agreement is -15 in Balance Luzon, -21 in NCR, -21 in Visayas, and -21 in Mindanao.

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF ay maasahan na pangangalagaan ang kapakanan ng mga hindi Muslim kapagnabuo na ang lugar ng Bangsamoro.”? (SHOWCARD)


TEST STATEMENT: “The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established”, BY AREA, MAR 2015

25

25

26

22

27

29

28

31

34

24

44

46

41

42

48

-18

-21

-15

-21

-21

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Chart 33



On Bangsamoro Representing the Interest of Lumads, Christians and Muslims

On the special survey undertaken in the Core territories of the Bangsamoro and Nearby Areas a similar question was put – whether all residents of the area will have their interests represented by the Bangsamoro.

More in Core territories compared to Nearby areas believe that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Core territories believe that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims compared to Nearby areas.

Those in BaSulTa areas lean toward believing that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims. In particular, net scores (% believe minus % do not believe) are higher in Basilan (+51) and Tawi-Tawi (+38) compared to Isabela City (+22) and Sulu (+21). However, it should be noted that the majority of 63% in Sulu are undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +21 net score indicates the opinion of the minority. [Chart 34]

Those in Central Mindanao areas lean toward believing that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims. In particular, the net score is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (+91) compared to Lanao del Sur (+80), Cotabato City (+80), Maguindanao (+78) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+70).

In Nearby areas, those in Zamboanga City and the Rest of Cotabato lean toward not believing that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims, while opinion is somewhat divided in the Rest of Lanao del Norte. In particular, net scores are +9 in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, -24 in the Rest of Cotabato and -28 in Zamboanga City. [Chart 35]

Chart 36

Chart 35

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. near ARMM

Do notBelieve Undecided Believe Net*

+21

+51

+22

+38

+80

+78

+80

+70

+91

*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do Not Believe) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na ang bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro ay kakatawan sainteres ng lahat ng mga residente sa lugar na iyon tulad ng mga Lumad, Kristiyano at mga Muslim? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA)

29

61

43

57

86

82

82

77

92

63

30

34

25

8

14

16

16

7

9

10

22

19

6

4

2

7

1

BELIEF THAT THE BANGSAMORO WILL REPRESENT THE INTEREST OF ALL RESIDENTS OF THE AREA, LIKE LUMADS, CHRISTIANS AND

MUSLIMS, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015

Zamboanga City



23

39

25

26

31

27

51

30

49

Do notBelieve Undecided Believe Net*

-28

+ 9

-24

*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do Not Believe) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na ang bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro ay kakatawan sainteres ng lahat ng mga residente sa lugar na iyon tulad ng mga Lumad, Kristiyano at mga Muslim? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA)

BELIEF THAT THE BANGSAMORO WILL REPRESENT THE INTEREST OF ALL RESIDENTS OF THE AREA, LIKE LUMADS, CHRISTIANS AND

MUSLIMS, NEARBY AREAS, FEB 2015



Over two-fifths of Filipinos nationwide disagree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that over a fourth (28%) of Filipinos agree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established, 28% are undecided, while a plurality of over two-fifths (42%) disagree, for a net agreement of -14. [Chart 36]

Across areas, disagreement with The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established prevails among pluralities in March 2015. In particular, net agreement is -11 in Balance Luzon, -16 in NCR, -16 in Mindanao, and -19 in Visayas.

Whether the Fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro Will Curb the Spread of Terrorist Groups in the Country

More in Core territories compared to Nearby areas agree that The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Core territories compared to Nearby areas agree that The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country.

Agreement with The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country prevails in BaSulTa areas. In particular, net agreement (% agree minus % disagree) is higher in Tawi-Tawi (+38), Basilan (+33) and Sulu (+32) compared to Isabela City (+20). However, it should be noted that significant percentages are undecided on the issue in Sulu (50%), Basilan (44%) and Isabela City (42%). [Chart 37]

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF ay maasahan na huhulihin ang sinumang magkasala sa batas, miyembro man ngMILF o hindi, kapag nabuo na ang lugar ng Bangsamoro.”? (SHOWCARD)


TEST STATEMENT: “The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or

not, once the Bangsamoro area is established”, BY AREA, MAR 2015

28

30

29

22

30

28

23

30

35

23

42

46

40

41

46

-14

-16

-11

-19

-16

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Chart 36



Agreement with The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country also prevails in Central Mindanao areas. In particular, net agreement is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (+81) and Lanao del Sur (+72) compared to Cotabato City (+62), Maguindanao (+56) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+50).

In contrast, disagreement with The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country prevails in Nearby areas. In particular, net agreement is -16 in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, -31 in the Rest of Cotabato and -40 in Zamboanga City. [Chart 38]

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. near ARMM

+32

+33

+20

+38

+72

+56

+62

+50

+81

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang ganap na katuparan ngComprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro o CAB ay pipigil sa pagdami ng mga teroristang grupo tulad ngAbu Sayyaf sa bansa.”? (SHOWCARD)

41

44

39

53

81

63

67

64

83

50

44

42

31

10

30

28

22

15

8

12

19

16

9

7

4

14

2


TEST STATEMENT: “The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the

Abu Sayyaf in the country”, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015

Zamboanga City



-40

-16

-31

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang ganap na katuparan ngComprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro o CAB ay pipigil sa pagdami ng mga teroristang grupo tulad ngAbu Sayyaf sa bansa.”? (SHOWCARD)

19

29

21

22

25

27

59

45

52


TEST STATEMENT: “The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the

Abu Sayyaf in the country”, NEARBY AREAS, FEB 2015

Chart 37

Chart 38



H. Effects of Peace Issues on Satisfaction with the National Administration

After a sharp slide in March 2015, Net satisfaction with the National Administration bounced back to a Good +31 nationwide in June.

The June 2015 Social Weather Survey found 55% of adult Filipinos satisfied, 20% neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, and 24% dissatisfied with the general performance of the National Administration, for a net satisfaction rating15 of +31 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied), classified by SWS as good. [Chart 39]

We can see from the slide that for the first three years of this national administration, until 2013, satisfaction with the national administration was at all-time highs. Since that time there has been a downward trend, which bottomed out in March 2015, with a rebound in June.

The decline in the March 2015 ratings were focused on issues of peace and security.

The 15 point decline between December 2014 and March 2015 was led by just a few issues. Compared to December 2014, we have:

• down by 18 points from +40 on Defending the country’s territorial rights, • down by 18 points from +15 on Reconciliation with Muslim rebels, and• down by 20 points from +17 on Reconciliation with Communist rebels. [Table 3]

Out of 16 specific performance issues rated in both the December 2014 and March 2015 Social Weather Surveys, the National Administration’s net satisfaction ratings declined on 12 specific issues, is unchanged on 1 specific issue, and rose on 3 specific issues. But only on these three issues was the decline in the double digits.

On the other hand, when satisfaction with the national administration rebounded in June 2015, there were no particular leading issues. On none, including those about peace and security, did net satisfaction increase by double digits.

15 SWS terminology for Net Satisfaction Ratings: +70 and above, “excellent”; +50 to +69, “very good”; +30 to +49, “good”; +10 to +29, “moderate”, +9 to –9, “neutral”; –10 to –29, “poor”; –30 to –49, “bad”; –50 to –69, “very bad”; –70 and below, “execrable”. A single-digit net satisfaction is considered not significantly different from zero.

1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2015

+10

+30

+50

+70

-10

-30

-50

* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.

NET* SATISFACTION WITH GENERAL PERFORMANCE OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION, FEB 1989 – JUN 2015

C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

+31

Net* Satisfaction

G

Overall performance rating +34 +19 -15

Fighting inflation -12 -8 +4Fighting crimes +5 +9 +4Helping the poor +33 +34 +1Helping victims of disasters +42 +42 0Ensuring that no family will ever be hungry -9 -11 -2Preparing for climate change +31 +29 -2Foreign relations +33 +30 -3Eradicating graft and corruption +6 +2 -4Promoting the welfare of OFWs +38 +34 -4Ensuring oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices -8 -13 -5Providing jobs +17 +11 -6Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice -41 -50 -9Fighting terrorism +15 +6 -9Defending the country's territorial rights +40 +22 -18Reconciliation with Muslim rebels +15 -3 -18Reconciliation with Communist rebels +17 -3 -20

* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.

Dec14 Mar15 Drop/Rise

NET* SATISFACTION WITH THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION ON SPECIFIC ISSUES, DEC 2014 AND MAR 2015

Chart 39

Table 3



I. Hope for the Bangsamoro

Peace and Development with the New Bangsamoro Government

Nearly 2 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly two-fifths (37%) of Filipinos nationwide are hopeful (10% very hopeful and 27% somewhat hopeful) that the New Bangsamoro Government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016, while the majority of 62% are not hopeful (27% somewhat not hopeful and 35% not hopeful at all). [Chart 40]

Majorities across all areas in March 2015 are not hopeful that the New Bangsamoro Government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. In fact, pluralities across all areas are not hopeful at all.

In particular, the percentage very hopeful is higher in Mindanao (16%) compared to NCR (10%), Visayas (8%) and Balance Luzon (7%).

Those somewhat hopeful is higher in Balance Luzon (30%) and NCR (29%) compared to Visayas (24%) and Mindanao (21%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful is higher in Balance Luzon (30%) and NCR (27%) compared to Visayas (23%) and Mindanao (23%).

Those not hopeful at all is higher in Visayas (43%) and Mindanao (39%) compared to NCR (33%) and Balance Luzon (31%).

Chart 40

HOPE THAT THE NEW BANGSAMORO GOVERNMENT IN THE EXPANDED AUTONOMOUS AREA WILL BRING PEACE AND

DEVELOPMENT IN ITS AREAS AFTER MAY 2016, BY AREA, MAR 2015

10

10

7

8

16

27

29

30

24

21

27

27

30

23

23

35

33

31

43

39

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Somewhat NotVery Somewhat Not hopeful

hopeful hopeful hopeful at all

Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na ang magiging bagong gobyerno ng Bangsamoro na pinalawak na lugar namay awtonomiya ay magdudulot ng kapayapaan at kaunlaran sa mga lugar na sakop nito makalipas ang Mayo 2016? (TALAGANG UMAASA, MEDYO UMAASA, MEDYO HINDI UMAASA, TALAGANG HINGI UMAASA)



Majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. [Chart 41]

In BaSulTa areas, majorities in Basilan, Taw-Tawi and Isabela City are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. In particular, the percentage very hopeful is higher in Basilan (34%) and Tawi-Tawi (33%) compared to Isabela City (18%) and Sulu (15%).

Those somewhat hopeful are slightly higher in Basilan (40%) and Isabela City (38%) compared to Tawi-Tawi (36%) and Sulu (34%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Sulu (46%) and Isabela City (35%) compared to Basilan (24%) and Tawi-Tawi (22%).

Those not hopeful at all are slightly higher in Tawi-Tawi (10%) and Isabela City (8%) compared to Sulu (6%) and Basilan (4%).

To a much greater extent, majorities in Central Mindanao areas are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. In particular, the percentage very hopeful is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (83%), Lanao del Sur (74%) and Maguindanao (71%) compared to Cotabato City (58%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (58%).

Those somewhat hopeful are higher in Cotabato City (31%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (29%) compared to Maguindanao (18%), Lanao del Sur (17%) and Cotabato near ARMM (13%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Cotabato City (11%), Maguindanao (10%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (8%) compared to Lanao del Sur (5%) and Cotabato near ARMM (3%).

Those not hopeful at all are slightly higher in Lanao del Norte near ARMM (5%) and Lanao del Sur (4%) compared to Cotabato City (2%), Maguindanao (1%) and Cotabato near ARMM (1%).

Again, while these results follow the familiar internal pattern of the greatest skepticism in Sulu and Isabela City, even these areas are considerably more hopeful than the nationwide response.

SomewhatVery Somewhat Not Not hopeful

hopeful hopeful hopeful at all

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines 10

15

34

18

33

74

71

58

58

83

27

34

40

38

36

17

18

31

29

13

27

46

24

35

22

5

10

11

8

3

35

6

4

8

10

4

1

2

5

1

HOPE THAT THE NEW BANGSAMORO GOVERNMENT IN THE EXPANDED AUTONOMOUS AREA WILL BRING PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT IN ITS

AREAS AFTER MAY 2016, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

Chart 41



Perceived Benefit of the Peace Agreement with the MILF

2 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF.

To the question, “Sa inyong palagay, ang mga isinasagawa bang prosesong pangkapayapaan o “peace process” sa MILF ay magbubunga ng MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para sa mga Pilipino? [In your opinion, will the peace process with the MILF give MUCH BENEFIT, MODERATE BENEFIT, A LITTLE BENEFIT OR NO BENEFIT AT ALL to the Filipinos?],” the March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that two-fifths (42%) of Filipinos nationwide think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF (16% much benefit and 26% moderate benefit), while the majority of 56% think there is a little or no benefit (21% a little benefit and 35% no benefit at all). [Chart 42]

By area, those who think there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF in March 2015 are higher in Balance Luzon (49%), NCR (47%) and Mindanao (40%) compared to Visayas (27%). On the other hand, majorities in Visayas (70%) and Mindanao (58%) and half in NCR (51%) and Balance Luzon (50%) think that there is a little or no benefit at all to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF.

In particular, those who think there is much benefit are higher in Mindanao (20%), Balance Luzon (17%) and NCR (15%) compared to Visayas (11%).

Those who think there is moderate benefit are higher in NCR (32%) and Balance Luzon (32%) compared to Mindanao (20%) and Visayas (17%).

On the other hand, those who think there is a little benefit are slightly higher in NCR (23%), Balance Luzon (22%) and Visayas (21%) compared to Mindanao (18%).

Those who think there is no benefit at all are higher in Visayas (49%) and Mindanao (39%) compared to NCR (29%) and Balance Luzon (28%).

Chart 42

EXTENT OF BENEFIT OF THE PEACE TALKS WITH THE MILF TO THE FILIPINOS, BY AREA, MAR 2015

16

15

17

11

20

26

32

32

17

20

21

23

22

21

18

35

29

28

49

39

NoMuch Moderate A little benefit

benefit benefit benefit at all

Philippines

NCR

Bal. Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang mga isinasagawa bang prosesong pangkapayapaan o "peace process" sa MILF ay magbubunga ng MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN parasa mga Pilipino? (SHOWCARD)



Majorities in Core territories think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace talks with the MILF.

The question was worded differently in the February 2015 survey of special areas in Mindanao. It asked, “Sa inyong palagay, ang mga isinasagawa bang usap-pangkapayapaan o “peace talks” sa MILF ay magbubunga ng MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para sa mga Pilipino? [In your opinion, will the peace talks being negotiated with the MILF give MUCH BENEFIT, MODERATE BENEFIT, A LITTLE BENEFIT OR NO BENEFIT AT ALL to the Filipinos?],” and the February 2015 Mindanao survey found that majorities in Core territories that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace talks with the MILF.

Majorities in BaSulTa areas think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF. In particular, those saying that there is much benefit are higher in Basilan (36%) and Tawi-Tawi (36%) compared to Isabela City (23%) and Sulu (20%). [Chart 43]

Those saying that there is moderate benefit do not differ much between Basilan (43%), Isabela City (41%), Tawi-Tawi (40%) and Sulu (39%).

On the other hand, those saying that there is little benefit are higher in Sulu (33%) and Isabela City (28%) compared to Tawi-Tawi (17%) and Basilan (15%).

Those saying that there is no benefit at all do not differ much between Sulu (9%), Tawi-Tawi (7%), Isabela City (6%) and Basilan (5%).

Much larger majorities in Central Mindanao areas think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace talks with the MILF. In particular, those saying that there is much benefit are higher in Lanao del Sur (84%), Cotabato near ARMM (80%) and Maguindanao (76%) compared to Cotabato City (63%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (63%).

Those saying that there is moderate benefit are higher in Cotabato City (31%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (28%) compared to Maguindanao (21%), Cotabato near ARMM (17%) and Lanao del Sur (11%).

On the other hand, those saying that there is little benefit do not differ much between Cotabato City (4%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (4%), Lanao del Sur (3%), Cotabato near ARMM (3%) and Maguindanao (1%).

T h o s e saying that there is no benefit at all do not differ much between Lanao del Norte near ARMM (5%), Maguindanao (2%),Cotabato City (2%) and Lanao del Sur (1%), while there were none in Cotabato near ARMM.

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

Philippines

Much Moderate A little No benefitbenefit benefit benefit at all

16

20

36

23

36

84

76

63

63

80

26

39

43

41

40

11

21

31

28

17

21

33

15

28

17

3

1

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EXTENT OF BENEFIT OF THE PEACE TALKS WITH THE MILF TO THE FILIPINOS, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015)

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang isinasagawa bang usap-pangkapayapaan o “peace talks” sa MILF ay magbubunga ngMALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para samga Pilipino?

Chart 43



Hope in the Passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law Despite the Mamasapano Incident

Majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that Congress can still pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that Congress can still pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao. [Chart 44]

In BaSulTa areas, majorities in Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and Isabela City are hopeful that Congress can still pass the BBL despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, those very hopeful are higher in Basilan (23%) and Tawi-Tawi (22%) compared to Isabela City (12%) and Sulu (8%).

Those somewhat hopeful are higher in Basilan (46%) compared to Isabela City (42%), Tawi-Tawi (40%) and Sulu (36%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Sulu (50%) compared to Isabela City (37%), Tawi-Tawi (28%) and Basilan (26%).

Those not hopeful at all is slightly higher in Tawi-Tawi (10%) and Isabela City (9%), compared to Sulu (6%) and Basilan (5%).

Much larger majorities in Central Mindanao areas are hopeful that Congress can still pass the BBL despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, those very hopeful are higher in Cotabato near ARMM (79%) and Lanao del Sur (70%) compared to Maguindanao (54%), Cotabato City (48%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (41%).

Those somewhat hopeful are higher in Cotabato City (34%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (33%) and Maguindanao (28%) compared to Lanao del Sur (21%) and Cotabato near ARMM (15%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Lanao del Norte near ARMM (19%), Cotabato City (14%) and M a g u i n d a n a o (13%) compared to Lanao del Sur (4%) and Cotabato near ARMM (4%).

Those not hopeful at all are slightly higher in Lanao del Norte near ARMM (8%), Lanao del Sur (5%) and Maguindanao (5%) compared to Cotabato near ARMM (3%) and Cotabato City (2%).

Chart 44

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Q Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na maipapasa pa ng Kongreso ang Bangsamoro Basic Law o BBL sa kabila ngpagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAF ng Philippine National Police (PNP) sa Mamasapano, Maguindanao? TALAGANG UMAASA, MEDYO UMAASA, MEDYO HINDI UMAASA, TALAGANG HINDI UMAASA

HOPE THAT CONGRESS CAN STILL PASS THE BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL) DESPITE THE DEATH OF THE 44 PNP-SAF,

CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. Near ARMM

8

23

12

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5448

41

79

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28

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19

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Very Somewhat Somewhat not Not hopefulhopeful hopeful hopeful at all



Pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front can still be successful despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front can still be successful despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

Those in BaSulTa areas lean toward believing that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the MILF can still be successful despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, net scores (% believe minus % do not believe) are higher in Basilan (+38) and Tawi-Tawi (+31) compared to Sulu (+24) and Isabela City (+20). However, it should be noted that the majority of 52% in Sulu are undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +24 net score indicates the opinion of the minority. [Chart 45]

To a greater degree, those in Central Mindanao areas lean toward believing that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the MILF can still be successful despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, net scores are higher in Cotabato near ARMM (+83) and Lanao del Sur (+75) compared to Cotabato City (+62), Maguindanao (+55) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+47).

Sulu

Basilan

Isabela City

Tawi-Tawi

Lanao del Sur

Maguindanao

Cotabato City

LDN near ARMM

Cot. near ARMM

+24

+38

+20

+31

+75

+55

+62

+47

+83


*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do not Believe) correctly rounded.Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na magiging matagumpay pa din ang kasunduang kapayapaan ng pamahalaan atng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) sa kabila ng pagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAFng Philippine National Police (PNP) sa Mamasapano, Maguindanao? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA,HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA)

BELIEF THAT THE PEACE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE MILF CAN STILL BE SUCCESSFUL DESPITE THE DEATH OF THE 44 MEMBERS OF THE PNP-SAF, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015

36

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Chart 45



The last five years saw both the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF take major steps in attaining a peace agreement that would benefit all Filipinos. In 2012, the government of the Philippines and MILF signed the initial agreement or Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro or FAB that seeks an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro. In 2013, the nation witnessed several significant events: a) the synchronization of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM Elections with the May 13 general elections for the first time, b) the signing of the FAB Annexes by the government of the Philippines and MILF, and c) the Zamboanga Siege by the Moro National Liberation Front or MNLF that threatened the peace negotiations. In 2014, the nation witnessed the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB by the government of the Philippines and MILF and the submission of the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL to Congress leaders by President Benigno Aquino III himself. In 2015, however, a clash in Mamasapano, Maguindanao occurred between the Special Action Force (SAF) of the Philippine National Police and some members of the MILF and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) because of the SAF mission to kill/arrest two wanted terrorists. This incident caused Congress to postpone the passage of the BBL, thus endangering the peace process between the government and the MILF.

With all of these developments in mind, The Asia Foundation saw the need to record the voice and opinion of Filipinos regarding the still ongoing peace process between the government and the MILF. The Asia Foundation supported its longtime partner, Social Weather Stations (SWS) to conduct a special survey in: a) Core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas in Mindanao; and b) Implement rider questions in its first quarter Social Weather Survey, in light of the recent developments in the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law and the aftermath of the Mamasapano Incident.

The survey of core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas had a total sample size of 1,900. The Core Bangsamoro territories consisted of 200 in Sulu, 200 in Basilan, 200 in Isabela City, 200 in Tawi-Tawi, 100 in Lanao del Sur, 100 in Maguindanao, 200 in Cotabato City, 150 in Lanao del Norte near ARMM, and 150 in Cotabato near ARMM. The Nearby areas, meanwhile, consisted of 100 in Zamboanga City, 150 in the rest of Lanao del Norte, and 150 in the rest of Cotabato. On the other hand, the First Quarter Social Weather Survey had a total sample size of 1,200, with 300 people each for Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. [Tables 1-2]

a N N e x a : S u rv e y b ac k g rO u N D

Fieldwork Sample ErrorDates Sizes Margins

Total : Feb 22-Mar 1 1,900 ± 2%Core Territories : Feb 22-Mar 1 1,500 ± 3

Sulu : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7Basilan : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7Isabela City : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7Tawi-Tawi : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7Lanao Del Sur : Feb 22-Mar 1 100 ± 10Maguindanao : Feb 22-Mar 1 100 ± 10Cotabato City : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7Lanao Norte near ARMM : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8Cotabato near ARMM : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8

Nearby Areas : Feb 22-28 400 ± 5Zamboanga City : Feb 22-28 100 ±10Rest of Lanao Norte : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8 Rest of Cotabato : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8

Special Mindanao Survey, Feb 2015

First Quarter 2015Social Weather Survey

Fieldwork Sample ErrorDates Sizes Margins

Philippines : Mar 20-23 1,200 ± 3%Metro Manila : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6

Balance Luzon : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6Visayas : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6

Mindanao : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6

Table 1

Table 2



The survey questionnaire for the core Bangsamoro areas and nearby areas in Mindanao, as well as the rider questions in the first quarter Social Weather Survey were developed in collaboration with TAF. Relevant questions to the subject were also included through SWS’ own initiative. The surveys included the following topics:

Satisfaction with the National Administration and Effective Means in Dealing with the MILF: This section asked about public satisfaction with the general performance of the national administration, as well as on selected peace issues: defending the country’s territorial rights, reconciliation with Muslim rebels, and reconciliation with communist rebels. In addition, it asked about effective means in dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, whether peaceful means, military operations, or both.

Views on Islam: This asked about whether one has a favorable opinion of Islam or not, and extent of one’s knowledge of the teachings and beliefs of Islam.

Disposition Toward the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro and the Bangsamoro Basic Law: This asked about one’s approval or disapproval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB), and the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL). It also asked about one’s agreement or disagreement regarding specific FAB proposals such as: the dissolution of ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the Bangsamoro, implementing an own banking system like Islamic banking, having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, the election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators instead of directly by the voters, having a new police force for the Bangsamoro, and reducing the number of AFP soldiers in the Bangsamoro area. This section also asked about the extent of one’s knowledge about the FAB, FAB’s Annexes, the proposed BBL, extent of reading the BBL’s provisions, and experience of going to any meeting/consultation regarding the BBL. In addition, it asked about belief on whether the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area like Lumads, Christians and Muslims, and whether the fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country.

The Mamasapano Incident: This section probed into public trust in institutions/groups investigating the Mamasapano Incident to give a fair decision regarding the case: the PNP Board of Inquiry or BOI, the Senate investigation, the House of Representatives investigation, and the MILF investigation. It also asked about persons/groups/institutions that should be held accountable for the Mamasapano Incident.

Disposition Toward the Moro Islamic Liberation Front: This asked about public trust in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and opinion on the sincerity of government and the MILF in following the provisions of their signed peace agreement. It also asked about one’s belief on whether the MILF is not helping any terrorist group believed to be operating in the country, whether the MILF will give up its armed struggle and join the democratic process of governance through elections for the Bangsamoro, whether the MILF will accept the outcome of the Bangsamoro elections even if they do not win, reliability of the MILF to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established, and reliability of the MILF to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established.

Hope for the Bangsamoro: SWS and TAF also included questions on the extent of hope that the new Bangsamoro government will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016, the extent of benefit of the peace talks with the MILF to Filipinos, level of hope that Congress can still pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law despite the death of the 44 PNP-SAF, and finally, belief that the peace agreement between the government and the MILF can still be successful despite the death of the 44 members of the PNP-SAF.

The study of core Bangsamoro territories and Nearby areas was done from February 22-March 1, 2015 in selected Mindanao areas. The error margin for this survey is ±2% in total, at the 95% confidence level. On the other hand, the First Quarter Social Weather Survey was done from March 20-23, 2015 for the whole Philippines. The error margin for this survey is ±3% at the national level, at the 95% confidence level. Both surveys utilized face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire with visuals.



a N N e x b : S O c I O - D e M O g r a p h I c p rO F I l e O F a D u lT r e S p O N D e N T S

In the March 2015 Social Weather Survey, after applying census weights, 13% of the adult respondents are youth (18-24), 19% are intermediate youth (25-34), 24% are middle-aged (35-44), 18% are 45 to 54 years old, and 27% are 55 years old and above. [Table 3]

In the February 2015 special Mindanao survey, 16% are youth (18-24), 24% are intermediate youth (25-34), 26% are middle-aged (35-44), 17% are 45 to 54 years old, and 17% are 55 years old and above.

In March 2015, 77% are class D or the masa, 17% are class E, and 5% are class ABC.

In February 2015, 55% are class D or the masa, 41% are class E, and 4% are class ABC.

In March 2015, 14% had at most some elementary education; 29% finished elementary education/had some high school education; 44% finished high school/completed vocational school/attended some college, and 13% graduated from college or took post-graduate studies.

In February 2015, nearly a third (32%) of respondents have at most some elementary education, 26% either finished elementary education or have some high school education, 31% either finished high school, completed vocational school, or attended some college, and 12% either have a college degree or post-graduate studies.

Age18-24 16%25-34 2435-44 2645-54 1755 and above 17

Economic ClassABC 4D 55E 41

EducationNone/Some elem. 32Elem. grad./Some HS 26HS/Voc. grad./Some coll. 31Coll. Grad./Post coll. 12

AGE, CLASS, EDUCATION, SPECIAL MINDANAO SURVEY, FEB 2015

AGE, CLASS, EDUCATION, PHILIPPINES, MAR 2015

Age18-24 13%25-34 1935-44 2445-54 1855 and above 27

Economic ClassABC 5D 77E 17

EducationNone/Some elem. 14Elem. grad./Some HS 29HS/Voc. grad./Some coll. 44Coll. grad./Post coll. 13

Table 3



Thirty-nine percent say they read Arabic, 35% write Arabic, 31% understand spoken Arabic, 24% speak Arabic, and 24% think in Arabic. A majority of 52% say none of these apply to them. [Table 4]

Seventy-seven percent say they read English, 71% write English, 67% understand spoken English, 56% speak English, and 48% think in English. Only 16% say none of these apply to them.

Among non-Muslims, 56% are regular churchgoers, of which 17% attend religious services several times a week, and 39% attend once a week. The balance of 44% are occasional churchgoers, of which 19% attend religious services 2-3 times a month, 11% attend monthly, 3% attend several times a year, 3% attend once a year, and 8% attend less frequently.

Among non-Muslims, 29% pray several times a day, 29% pray once a day, 13% pray several times a week, 15% pray every week, 5% pray nearly every week, 3% pray 2-3 times a month, 2% pray about once a month, 1% pray several times a year, 1% pray about 1-2 times a year, 1% pray less than once a year, and 0.2% never do. [Table 5]

Of the non-Muslims, 9% read the bible daily, 29% read weekly, 13% read monthly, 12% read a few times a year, 17% read once a year, and 19% read less frequently.

Among Muslims, 46% pray the Salah five times every day, 20% pray the Salah a few times every day, 29% pray the Salah sometimes, 3% pray the Salah only during Ramadan, and 1% never pray. Only 1% say they last prayed the Salah more than a year ago.

Of the Muslims, 19% read the Qur’an daily, 19% read weekly, 9% read monthly, 9% read a few times a year, 12% read once a year, 31% read less frequently, and 1% never/cannot read.

ARABIC AND ENGLISH PROFICIENCY, AND ATTENDANCE AT RELIGIOUS SERVICES, SPECIAL MINDANAO SURVEY, FEB 2015

Attendance at Religious Services(Base: Non-Muslims)

Several times a week 17%Once a week 392-3 times a month 19Once a month 11Several times a year 3Once a year 3Less frequently 8Never -

Arabic ProficiencyReads Arabic 39%Writes Arabic 35Understands spoken Arabic 31Speaks Arabic 24Thinks in Arabic 24None applies 52

English ProficiencyReads English 77Writes English 71Understands spoken English 67Speaks English 56Thinks in English 48None Applies 16

FREQUENCY OF PRAYING, READING THE BIBLE, PRAYING THE SALAH, AND READING THE QUR’AN, SPECIAL MINDANAO SURVEY, FEB 2015

Frequency of Praying the Salah(Base: Muslims)

Five times everyday 46%A few times everyday 20Sometimes 29Only during Ramadan 3More than a year ago 1Never 1

Frequency of Reading the Qur’an (Base: Muslims)

Daily 19Weekly 19Monthly 9A few times a year 9Once a year 12Less frequently 31Never/Can’t read 1

Frequency of Praying (Base: Non-Muslims)

Several times a day 29%Once a day 29Several times a week 13Every week 15Nearly every week 52-3 times a month 3About once a month 2Several times a year 1About once or twice a year 1Less than once a year 1Never 0.2

Frequency of Reading the Bible(Base: Non-Muslims)

Daily 9Weekly 29Monthly 13A few times a year 12Once a year 17Less frequently 19Never/Can’t read -

Table 4

Table 5

T h E S TA k E h O l d E r S O F B A N g S A m O rO

Steven RoodNadine RagonjanDerkie AlfonsoChristian Hope Reyes

Vladymir Joseph LicudineMahar MangahasChristian Michael EntomaChristine Belle TorresGermelita M. CaronGerardo A. SandovalAileen MontibonJoanne Evangelista

Founded in 1985, Social Weather Stations is the Philippine’s leading survey research institute on Quality of Life, Public Opinion, and Governance. It defines its mission as generating new survey data along key social concerns for the three purposes of:

Education: So eyes may see social conditionsConscientization: So hearts may feel social problemsAnalysis: So minds may understand their solutions

SWS is a private, non-stock, non-profit, and politically non-partisan scientific institute engaged in research, analysis, training, and outreach activities; it is an officially accredited Donee Institution. SWS datasets and publications are available to the public at the SWS Survey Data Library. SWS represents the Philippines in the International Social Survey Programme, the World Values Survey, the Asian Barometer, and other cross-country survey networks.

Social Weather Stations52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village

Diliman, Quezon City1101 Philippines

Tel: (632) 942-4465/56; (632) 924-4458Fax: (632) 920-2181

Website: http://www.sws.org.ph socialweatherstations

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Documents

Filipino Public Opinion Bangsamoro Basic Law Mamasapano Incident