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Weather • Climate • Water1
The imperative of climate service
Filipe Lúcio
Director, Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS)
World Meteorological Organization
www.gfcs-climate.org/
Weather • Climate • Water2
The challange of adaptation...• Many socioeconomic
sectors sensitive to
climate variability and
change
• Need for information for
decision making
• The past is no longer a
trustworthy indicator of
the future
• New paradigms are
required to support
decision-making
Drought Flooding
Pro
ba
bil
ity
P (
x)
X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)
Coping range
Within every society,
there is a certain capacity
to cope with hazards
Climate variability and
change increase
uncertainty, can increase or
decrease this coping
range.
Source: Wilhite 2006
The challange of adaptation...
Weather • Climate • Water4
Seamless hydrometeorological and
climate servicesForecast
uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Decades
Centuries
Weather forecasting
Climate predictions
Climate scenarios
and projections
Fo
reca
st le
ad
tim
e
Socioeconomic benefits
Warnings and
alert
coordination
Watches
Scenarios
Outlooks
Guidance
Threat
assessment
Forecasts
Weather • Climate • Water5
The HLT survey
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Climate
data
Seasonal
predictions
Climate
outlooks
Scenario of
possible
regional
impacts
from
climate
change
over the
next 10 to
50 years
Training for
climate
service
providers
Training of
climate
service
users
Climate
research
Other
Provision of services
Academic
Research
Weather • Climate • Water6Weather • Climate • Water 6
6
Vision
To enable better management of the risks of climate variability
and change and adaptation to climate change, through the
development and incorporation of science-based climate
information and prediction into planning, policy and practice
on the global, regional and national scale.”
Priority Areas
Weather • Climate • Water7
GFCS Pillars
• Structured means for systematic interaction
User Interface Platform
Ability Needs. Providers UsersAbility Needs. Providers Users
Ability NeedsProviders Users
Interface Providers & Users
Interlinking
Ability Needs
Research Modeling & Prediction
• RMP
Capacity Development
• CD
Climate Services
Information Systems
• CSIS
Observations & Monitoring
• OBS
Water
Agriculture
Disaster Risk
ReductionHealth
Gaps
UIP aims to fill
• Feedback between providers and users
• Dialogue amongst pillars
• Outreach– Using climate services to full potential
– Moving data to decisions
• Capacity DevelopmentTune abilities to use driven focus
Ability Needs. Providers Users
Weather • Climate • Water 12
12
Various forms of UIP
• Questionnaires
• Extension Services
• Intermediaries, e.g., NGOs…
Weather • Climate • Water13
Major needs1. Tailored climate information products and advisory services (detailed and
skilful forecasts + climate change projections + better prediction of
extremes);
2. Capacity development of professionals and communities on production
and effective application of climate services;
3. Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data that
is compatible with environmental and climate information;
4. Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-effective
use of climate information for sector decisions;
5. Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate
variability and climate change;
6. Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to the
sector and user communities;
7. Sustainable financial and technical support;
8. Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary policy,
practice and research.
Pre-requisites for climate services
• Available: at time and space scales that the user needs,
• Dependable: delivered regularly and on time,
• Usable: presented in user specific formats so that the client can fully understand,
• Credible: for the user to confidently apply to decision-making
• Authentic: entitled to be accepted by stakeholders in the given decision contexts
• Responsive and flexible: to the evolving user needs, and
• Sustainable: affordable and consistent over time.
Weather • Climate • Water15
Thank you for your attention
www.gfcs-climate.org/
