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• The Tropical Pacific is currently in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state, but some of the at-

mospheric indicators are leaning towards weak La Niña characteristics;

• ENSO neutral conditions are favoured to persist through the April to June 2017 period , with the likelihood of El

Niño conditions developing during the second half of 2017;

• Rainfall through April to June 2017 is expected to be highly variable across the country, thus an equal chance of below average, average and above average rainfall is predicted;

• The air temperatures are anticipated to be close to normal through both the April to June and July to Septem-ber 2017 periods;

• Sea surface temperatures in the Fiji region are favoured to be normal during the coming three months;

• All communities are advised to should remain alert as few more weeks are remaining for the end of 2016/17

tropical cyclone season. At the same time, all communities should also prepare for the coming dry season.

2.0 RAINFALL & TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

1.0 HIGHLIGHTS

Fiji Climate Outlook Fiji Climate Outlook Fiji Climate Outlook Fiji Climate Outlook April to June 2017 April to June 2017 April to June 2017 April to June 2017

& July to September 2017 & July to September 2017 & July to September 2017 & July to September 2017

Issued: April 12, 2017 *Volume 11 : Issue 04

*Prior to July 2006, the Fiji Islands Climate Outlook was incorporated in the Fiji Islands Weather Summary

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Private Mail Bag (NAP 0351)

Nadi Airport, Fiji.

Ph: +679 6724888, Fax: +679 6724050

Email: climate@met.gov.fj

Also online at http://www.met.gov.fj

APRIL TO JUNE 2017 RAINFALL OUTLOOK The SCOPIC model is not biased towards either below average, average or above average rainfall over the Fiji Group

through the April to June 2017 period. Thus, rainfall is expected to be highly variable as we progress from wet to dry season.

The SCOPIC model rainfall predictions are as follows (Table 1): Western Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - moderate) Central Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - moderate) Northern Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - moderate) Eastern Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - moderate) Rotuma : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - very low)

Global Rainfall Models (e.g. ECMWF, NSIPP, IRI, NCEP, etc.): The global climate models also provide similar guidance for below average, average and above average rainfall in the Fiji region during the April to June 2017 period (Figures 3a & 3b: two of the several global climate models that the Fiji

Meteorological Service uses).

JULY TO SEPTEMBER 2017 RAINFALL OUTLOOK The SCOPIC model rainfall predictions are as follows (Table 2): Western Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - low to moderate) Central Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - very low to low) Northern Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - low to moderate) Eastern Division : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - low) Rotuma : Equal chances of below average, average and above average (Confidence - very low) TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: The air temperatures, that is, both maximum and minimum temperatures are favoured to be normal through both the

April to June and July to September 2017 period (Tables 3 & 4). With the onset of dry season in May, occasional cool nights can be expected through in the coming months. The sea surface temperature in the Fiji region is favoured to be

normal through the April to June 2017 period (Figures 2a & 2b: two of the several global climate models that Fiji Mete-orological Service uses).

The X LEPS % scores, which are used to categorize the confidence of the outlook are as follows: Very Low: X < 0.0 Low: 0 ≤ X < 5 Moderate: 5 ≤ X < 10 Good: 10 ≤ X < 15 High: 15 ≤ X < 25 Very High: 25 ≤ X < 35 Exceptional: X ≥ 35

ISO 9001:2008

certified Climate

Services

2

A. Current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status

The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently near normal in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while warm anoma-lies are in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. The SSTs in the far eastern Pacific along the coast of Peru are at rec-

ord warm levels with some referring to it as a ‘coastal El Niño’. During the last two months, positive subsurface tempera-

ture anomalies have persisted in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. However, negative subsurface temperature anoma-lies have increased recently in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Convection in the equatorial Pacific are leaning towards a weak La Niña like conditions, with below normal cloud cover

near the Dateline and above normal cloud cover in the Indonesian region. The Trade winds were enhanced over the west-

ern equatorial Pacific, a feature typical of a La Niña event. However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have been gen-erally within the neutral range since mid-October 2016, with the latest 30-day average to 08 April 2017 at +3.4 (Figure 1).

B. El Niño Southern Oscillation Prediction

ENSO neutral conditions are favoured to persist through the April to June 2017 period. During the second half of the year, majority of the climate models are predicting El Niño conditions to develop. However, it must be noted that this outlook overlaps the ENSO transition months during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy. Therefore, continua-tion of the ENSO neutral conditions cannot be ruled out. Chances of La Niña developing in 2017 is very low.

FMS will closely monitor the development and provide updates through its ENSO Update: http://www.met.gov.fj/

ENSO_Update.pdf .

Issued: April 12, 2017 Fiji Climate Outlook Volume 11 : Issue 04

SOI (in bars) and 5 month running mean (continuous pink line) The SOI for March was

+5.1, with the 5 month running mean of +1.2. Sustained values of the SOI between ±8 typical-

ly indicate persistence of neutral conditions.

ECMWF Seasonal SST Forecast favours normal

SSTs in the Fiji region. (http://www.ecmwf.int/

en/forecasts/charts/

seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast)

3.0 EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS

Figure 1: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Graph

Figure 2a: ECMWF Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Outlook for April to June 2017

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Issued: April 12, 2017 Fiji Climate Outlook Volume 11 : Issue 04

ECMWF Seasonal Forecast favours aver-

age rainfall in the Fiji region. (http://www.ecmwf.int/

en/forecasts/charts/

seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range-forecast)

Figure 2b: CFS - SST Outlook for April to June 2017

CFS Model favours nor-

mal SSTs in the Fiji re-

gion. (http://

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

products/CFSv2/

imagesInd3/

glbSSTSeaInd1.gif)

Figure 3b: APCC - Rainfall Outlook for April to June 2017

APCC rainfall forecast is not biased towards

either below average, average or above aver-

age rainfall in the Fiji

region. (http://iri.columbia.edu/

our-expertise/climate/

forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/)

Figure 3a: ECMWF Rainfall Outlook for April to June 2017

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Table 1: Three Months: April to June 2017 Rainfall Outlook

Station (Locations in Figure 4) Dry 33 % Normal 67 % Wet

(%) (mm) (%) (mm) (%)

Western Division

Dobuilevu 28 414 36 608 36 Penang Mill 31 352 35 532 34 Yasawa-i-rara 28 287 37 427 35 Vatukoula Mine 28 313 37 478 35 Rarawai Mill 31 287 35 441 34 Lautoka Mill 29 264 36 390 35

Nadi Airport 30 257 36 376 34 Nabou Pine 22 232 41 364 37 Lomawai 28 254 38 351 34 Olosara 26 258 38 421 36

Nacocolevu 28 280 36 400 36 Monasavu Dam 29 906 36 1182 35

Central Division

Navua 31 755 35 985 34 Lami 27 920 37 1092 36 Laucala Bay, Suva 31 676 35 821 34 Tamavua 29 758 36 1094 35 Nausori Airport 28 646 37 778 35 Koronivia 29 645 36 810 35 Naduruloulou 33 673 33 920 34

Eastern Division St. John’s College, Levuka 33 521 35 760 32 Lakeba 30 342 35 500 35 Ono-i-lau 25 317 38 466 37 Matuku 31 346 34 481 35 Vunisea 30 457 35 605 35

Northern Division

Nabouwalu 27 485 38 659 35

Seaqaqa 29 321 36 503 35 Labasa Airfield 31 328 34 448 35 Savusavu Airfield 30 396 35 629 35 Wainigata 29 431 37 616 34 Udu Point 30 426 35 620 35 Matei Airfield 30 531 35 706 35

Rotuma 34 744 33 919 33

Vaturu 19 344 44 512 37

Dreketi 30 297 34 496 36

Issued: April 12, 2017 Fiji Climate Outlook Volume 11 : Issue 04

The FMS uses the Seasonal Climate Outlook for Pacific Island Countries (SCOPIC) Model as its main guidance for predicting climate on a three to six month timescale. SCOPIC bases its calculations on there being a correlation between sea surface temperatures and rainfall/air temperatures. For some parts of Fiji e.g. the middle of the Dry Zone, this link is very strong. For others e.g. Suva, the link is not as strong, but it is still a useful indicator.

When calculating rainfall for example for the upcoming three month period (e.g. March to May 2015), SCOPIC uses measurements from the current three month period (in this case November to December 2014) to look for similar ocean patterns in the historical record. The rainfall for the following three month

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Station (Locations in Figure 4) Dry 33 % Normal 67 % Wet

(%) (mm) (%) (mm) (%)

Western Division

Dobuilevu 32 207 34 287 34

Penang Mill 32 152 34 233 34

Yasawa-i-rara 31 121 35 209 34

Vatukoula Mine 28 124 37 212 35

Rarawai Mill 30 130 35 230 35

Lautoka Mill 29 123 36 220 35

Nadi Airport 28 130 36 214 36

Nabou Pine 26 158 38 258 36

Lomawai 30 150 35 254 35

Olosara 30 198 35 312 35

Nacocolevu 33 197 33 289 34

Monasavu Dam 34 591 33 737 33

Central Division

Tokotoko, Navua 32 527 34 684 34

Lami 32 613 34 847 34

Laucala Bay, Suva 32 384 34 563 34

Tamavua 33 578 33 809 34

Nausori Airport 33 370 33 531 34

Koronivia 33 379 33 551 34

Naduruloulou 34 411 33 603 34

Eastern Division

St. John’s College, Levuka 32 282 34 437 34

Lakeba 32 209 34 316 34

Ono-i-lau 32 252 34 345 34

Matuku 30 225 35 351 35

Vunisea 34 273 32 382 34

Northern Division

Nabouwalu 31 213 35 372 34

Seaqaqa 29 124 36 241 35

Labasa Airfield 30 109 35 204 35

Savusavu Airfield 30 244 35 355 35

Wainigata 32 283 35 445 33

Udu Point 32 228 34 338 34

Matei Airfield 29 280 35 399 36

Rotuma 34 577 34 775 32

Vaturu 31 191 34 369 35

Dreketi 28 143 36 221 36

Table 2: Three-months: July to September 2017 Rainfall Outlook

Issued: April 12, 2017 Fiji Climate Outlook Volume 11 : Issue 04

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Table 3: Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature Outlook - April to June 2017 Maximum Air Temperature Minimum Air Temperature

Station Cool (%)

Normal (oC)

Warm (%)

Cool (%)

Normal (oC)

Warm (%)

Selected Sites

Laucala Bay, Suva 50 28.5 50 50 22.3 50

Nadi Airport 52 29.7 48 50 20.7 50

Labasa Airport 51 30.4 49 50 20.3 50

Nabouwalu 49 28.1 51 51 23.2 49

Vunisea 50 27.5 50 50 21.7 50

Lakeba 50 28.3 50 50 22.8 50

Rotuma 51 30.0 49 52 24.7 48

Issued: April 12, 2017 Fiji Climate Outlook Volume 11 : Issue 04

Table 4: Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature Outlook - July to September 2017 Maximum Air Temperature Minimum Air Temperature

Station Cool (%)

Normal (oC)

Warm (%)

Cool (%)

Normal (oC)

Warm (%)

Selected Sites

Laucala Bay, Suva 49 26.7 51 49 20.8 51

Nadi Airport 50 28.8 50 48 19 52

Labasa Airport 50 29.6 50 48 18.7 52

Nabouwalu 49 26.7 51 49 21.9 51

Vunisea 49 25.9 51 49 19.8 51

Lakeba 48 26.7 52 49 21.1 51

Rotuma 49 29.2 51 50 24.1 50

Figure 4. Location of climate monitor ing stations in Fiji.

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4.0 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2016-17 OUTLOOK

Issued: March 12, 2017 Fiji Climate Outlook Volume 11 : Issue 03

The Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity in the 2016/17 TC season within the Regional Specialized Meteoro-logical Center Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) (Equator to 25˚South between 160˚ East and 120˚ West) is anticipated to be near average with high con-

fidence. The official 2016/17 TC season began on 1 November 2016 and ends on 30 April 2017. Five to seven (5 to 7) tropical cyclones are expected to occur in the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR during the

2016/17season. The average for all the 47 seasons from 1969/70 to 2015/2016 is 7.3 cyclones. The aver-

age for El Niño, La Niña and neutral seasons are 8.7, 6.5 and 6.4 tropical cyclones, respectively. Tropical cyclone genesis trough is expected to be shifted to the west of the Dateline during the 2016/17

season. This outlook is based on the status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preced-

ing July to September period. During this period in 2016, neutral to weak La Niña conditions were pre-

sent and the International Climate Model Guidance indicates that the most likely outcome for the

2016/17 season is for neutral conditions to prevail. Therefore the seasonal outlook is based on weak La

Niña to neutral conditions. Historically, these conditions have favoured a westward shift in tropical cy-

clone activity in the Southwest Pacific.

TC activity for Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Vanuatu and

Wallis & Futuna is predicted to be normal for this season, while there is reduced TC risk for Tuvalu and

French Polynesia.

Elevated TC activity is anticipated for F iji and Tonga. The risk for TC activity in the Kiribati area is

low. For Fiji, as many as two to three (2-3) cyclones is predicted to pass through Fiji Waters this season with

one (1) anticipated to reach or exceed category 3 status. With the expectation of tropical cyclone genesis

to lie mainly in the Coral Sea area, there is high chance of TC’s to approach Fiji from the Western and

Northern sectors. For those tropical cyclones passing close to the country, associated active cloud and

rain bands may occasionally affect Fiji with marked rainfall and possible flooding, including sea flooding

of low-lying coastal areas. It is critical that communities across Fiji pay close attention to all weather forecast, warnings and adviso-

ries issued by the Fiji Meteorological Service and whole of the country remain alert and prepared at all

times throughout the remaining season.