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8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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J. David Hughes
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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The Monterey Tight Oil Play in California, With Relevant
Sedimentary Basins and Counties
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (play boundaries from EIA/INTEK report, 2011)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
NumberofProducingWe
lls
OilProd
uction(thousandbarrelsperday)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Producing Wells
California Oil Production and Number of Producing Wells,
1980 through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
Peak 1985
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Density of Inactive and Active Oil Wells in California
Drilled Between 1977 and 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from DI Desktop, August 2013)
Total # of Inactive Wells:
158,549
Total # of Active Wells:
79,574
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Kern LosAngeles
Fresno Orange Ventura SantaBarbara
Monterey Other
Numbero
fWells
County
Number of Oil and Gas Wells Drilled in California,
by County through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
Total Wells = 238,123
Active or Drilling = 79,574
Non-Productive = 158,549
Of the wells classified as Active or
Drilling only about 50,000 arecurrently producing.
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Produc
tion(thousand
barrelsperday)
Year
Other Wells
Cyclic Steam Wells
Conventional Wells
California Oil Production by Well Type,
1980 through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
Peak 1985
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Produc
tion(thousand
barrelsperday)
Year
Monterey Formation
Rest of California
Oil Production from the Monterey Formation and
the Rest of California, 1980 through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
Peak 1985
Rest of California
Monterey Formation
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Distribution of Potential Tight Oil Production from the
Monterey Shale per the EIA/INTEK Report (2011)
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (from EIA/INTEK report, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
NumberofProducingWe
lls
OilProd
uction(thousandbarrelsperday)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Producing Wells
Monterey Formation Oil Production and Number of
Producing Wells, 1980 through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
Peak 1982
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Active Drilling Plugged(P&A)
Inactive Dry Hole Other Shut In
Numbero
fWells
Well Status
Status of Monterey Oil and Gas Wells Drilled
From 1980 Through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
Total Wells = 4,921
Active or Drilling = 2,784
Non-Productive = 2,137
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Distribution of Oil Fields, Including Wells Producing From
the Monterey Formation as of May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Stratigraphic Nomenclature of the Monterey Formation in
the San Joaquin Basin
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (from USGS Bulletin 1713 Chapter 8)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Production(thousand
barrelsperda
y)
Year
Offshore Santa Barbara
Stevens SandOnshore Santa BarbaraMonterey UndividedDevilwater ShaleMcLure ShaleReef Ridge Shale
Antelope Shale
Oil Production from Subdivisions of the Monterey
Formation, 1980 through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
Peak 1982
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Holly Platform producing from Monterey Formation in the
South Ellwood Offshore Field
Photo by Andy Rusch, licensed under Create Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Platform_Holly,_Santa_Barbara.jpg.
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OilProductionperWe
ll(barrelsperd
ay)
Year
Stevens Sand
Antelope Shale
McLure Shale
Reef Ridge Shale
Onshore Santa Barbara
Average Onshore Oil Production per Well from Subdivisions of
the Monterey Formation, 2000 through May 2013
Hughes GSR I nc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Production(thousandbarrelsperda
y)
Year
Onshore Santa BarbaraMonterey Undivided
Devilwater ShaleMcLure ShaleReef Ridge ShaleAntelope Shale
Oil Production from Shale Reservoirs
in the Monterey Formation, 2000 through May 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
Peak 2002
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Distribution and Depth of McLure Shale (left) and Antelope
Shale (right) Source Rocks in the San Joaquin Basin
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (from USGS Professional Paper 1713, Chapter 8)
C S f S
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Cross Sections of McLure Shale and Antelope
Shale Source Rocks in the San Joaquin Basin
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (from USGS Professional Paper 1713, Chapter 8)
O t f M t F ti t t t V d b Ai
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Outcrop of Monterey Formation strata at Vandenberg Air
Force Base Illustrating Complex Meso-scale Deformation
(AAPG Explorer, February 2013, https://www.aapg.org/explorer/2013/02feb/monterey_shale0213.cfm.) Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
T i l T D li C f M t Sh l W ll
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Typical Type Decline Curves for Monterey Shale Wells
Provided in the EIA/INTEK Report
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (from EIA/INTEK report, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf)
Elk Hill Fi ld O id t l W ll I iti l P d ti (BOE)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
In
itialProduction(BOE/day)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
Elk Hills FieldOccidental WellsInitial Production (BOE)
grouped by Year of First Production, 2007 through June 2013
(data from Drillinginfo, current through June 2013)
Average Well Since 2007
Directional = 108 BOE/day
Vertical = 96 BOE/day
2007 2008 2009-
2010
2011 2012 2013
Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)
Horizontal well IP (INTEK)
Vertical well IP (INTEK)
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Elk Hill Fi ld O id t l W ll I iti l Oil P d ti d
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Init
ialOilProduction(bbls/day)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
Elk Hills FieldOccidental WellsInitial Oil Production grouped
by Year of First Production, 2007 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through June 2013)
Average Well Since 2007
Directional = 46 bbls/day
Vertical = 46 bbls/day
2007 2008 2009-
2010
2011 2012 2013
Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)
Horizontal well IP (INTEK)
Vertical well IP (INTEK)
S i i A l D fi i th R d N th Sh ft Fi ld
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Seismic Anomaly Defining the Rose and North Shafter Fields
(Grau et al., 2003, http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2003/grau/index.htm) Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
2 miles
Rose Field
North Shafter Field
N th Sh ft d R Fi ld Oil P d ti d N b f
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Numberof
ProducingWells
OilProd
uction(thousa
ndbarrelsperday)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Producing Wells
North Shafter and Rose Fields - Oil Production and Number of
Producing Wells, 1990 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
Peak 2002
Distribution of Wells by Status in
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Rose Field
North Shafter Field
Distribution of Wells by Status in
the Rose and North Shafter Fields as of mid-2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources (DOGGR), October 2013)
View of Central Part of North Shafter Field
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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R.A. Shafter-1 Discovery Well
1 mile
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources (DOGGR), October 2013)
View of Central Part of North Shafter Field
Illustrating Well Footprint as of mid-2013
Rose & North Shafter Fields Initial Production (BOE) grouped by
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
In
itialProductio
n(BOE/day)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
1983-
1999
2000 2001 2002-
2003
2004-
2010
2011 2012 2013
Rose & North Shafter Fields Initial Production (BOE) grouped by
Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
Average Well 2005-2013
Directional = 157 BOE/d
Vertical = 94 BOE/dElk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)
Horizontal well IP (INTEK)
Vertical well IP (INTEK)
Rose & North Shafter Fields Cumulative Oil Production grouped by
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Cu
mulativeOilProduction(Kbbl
)Directional Wells Vertical Wells
Rose & North Shafter Fields Cumulative Oil Production grouped by
Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)
EIA/INTEK projection is that
Monterey wells will produce
550 Kbbls on average
Average Well > 10 years old
Directional = 197 Kbbls
Vertical = 180 Kbbls
1983-
1999
2000 2001 2002-
2003
2004-
2010
2011 2012 2013
San Joaquin Basin (All Monterey Wells) Initial Production (BOE)
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
InitialProducti
on(BOE/day)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
2005-
2009
2010-
2011
2012-
2013
San Joaquin Basin (All Monterey Wells) Initial Production (BOE)
grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
Average Well Since 2000
Directional = 169 BOE/day
Vertical = 116 BOE/day
1980-
1984
1985-
1989
1990-
1994
1995-
1999
2000-
2004
Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)
Horizontal well IP (INTEK)
Vertical well IP (INTEK)
San Joaquin Basin (All Monterey Wells) Cumulative Oil Production
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Cu
mulativeOilPr
oduction(Kbbl)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
San Joaquin Basin (All Monterey Wells) Cumulative Oil Production
grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
EIA/INTEK projection is that
Monterey wells will produce
550 Kbbls on average
Average Well > 10 years old
Directional = 97 Kbbls
Vertical = 127 Kbbls
1980-
1984
1985-
1989
1990-
1994
1995-
1999
2000-
2004
2005-
2009
2010-
2011
2012-
2013
Santa Maria Basin (Onshore Monterey Wells) Initial Production
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
InitialProductio
n(BOE/day)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
Santa Maria Basin (Onshore Monterey Wells) Initial Production
(BOE) grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
Average Well Since 2000
Directional = 116 BOE/day
Vertical = 28 BOE/day
1980 1981 1982-
1983
1984 1985-
1987
1988-
1989
2000-
2010
2011-
2013
1990-
1999
Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)
Horizontal well IP (INTEK)
Vertical well IP (INTEK)
Santa Maria Basin (Onshore Monterey Wells) Cumulative Oil
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Cu
mulativeOilPr
oduction(Kbbl)
Directional Wells Vertical Wells
Santa Maria Basin (Onshore Monterey Wells) Cumulative Oil
Production by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)
EIA/INTEK projection is thatMonterey wells will produce
550 Kbbls on average
Average Well > 10 years old
Directional = 141 Kbbls
Vertical = 67 Kbbls
1980 1981 1982-
1983
1984 1985-
1987
1988-
1989
2000-
2010
2011-
2013
1990-
1999
Scenarios of Increases in Oil Production from the Monterey
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Scenarios of Increases in Oil Production from the Monterey
Shale in the USC study, 2015-2013
(USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf) Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Depending on assumptions, Monterey production is forecast by the USC
study to grow by between 0.18 and 1.1 million barrels per day by 2020.
Increase in California Oil Production fromMonterey Tight Oil (mbd)
Scenario 2015 2020 2025 2030
Decline Curve Analysis (1) 0.16 1.1 1.6 1.6
Decline Curve Analysis (2) 0.15 1.1 2.4 3.3
Modified Decline Curve Analysis (1) 0.15 0.69 0.67 0.42
Modified Decline Curve Analysis (2) 0.077 0.58 1.2 1.7
Incremental Advanced-Technology Oil Production 0.13 0.18 0.17 0.15
Average of all scenarios 0.1334 0.73 1.208 1.434
Average of highest and lowest scenarios 0.14 0.64 1.285 1.725
USC Economic Study Assumptions of Growth in Monterey
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
TotalCaliforniaOilProduction(Kbbls/d
ay)
Year
Existing Production with Flat Projection
USC Study Decline Curve Analysis 1
USC Study Decline Curve Analysis 2
USC Study Modified Decline Curve Analysis 1
USC Study Modified Decline Curve Analysis 2
Incremental Advanced-Technology Oil ProductionAverage of all scenarios
History Forecast
USC Economic Study Assumptions of Growth in Monterey
Tight Oil Production, 2013-2030
7 times current
California production
(Based on scenarios in USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf) Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
USC Economic Study Estimates of the Number of Wells
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USC Economic Study Estimates of the Number of Wells
Required for Monterey Tight Oil Production Growth
(USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf) Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
The high case would see production grow seven-fold
through 2030, and the average of all scenarios would see
California production more than double by 2020.
Reference Well Production Used by USC Economic Study to Estimate
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Oil
Production(ba
rrelsperday)
Year
USC Type Well RA-1
USC Type Well 3-1
Reference Well Production Used by USC Economic Study to Estimate
Monterey Tight Oil Production, 1984 through February 2013
Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, August 2013)
RA-1 Well:8.1 bbls/day
125,533 bbls cumulative
3-1 Well:0.5 bbls/day
74,482 bbls cumulative
Actual Number of Wells Required to Meet USC 2030
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USC Scenario
USCReference
Well
USC 2030
MontereyProduction
(million barrelsper day)
USCNumberof Wells
Actual Number ofWells Required to Meet
USC Forecast withUSC Reference Well
USC Oil
Recoverythrough 2030
(billionbarrels)
Decline CurveAnalysis 1
3-1 1.6 4,112 117,269 6.89
Decline CurveAnalysis 2
RA-1 3.3 4,112 232,562 10.20
Modified Decline CurveAnalysis 1
3-1 0.42 4,112 49,119 3.14
Modified Decline CurveAnalysis 2
RA-1 1.7 4,112 119,532 5.21
Actual Number of Wells Required to Meet USC 2030
Oil Production Estimates
(USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf) Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
The highest oil production scenario would see the recovery of some
10.2 billion barrels by 2030, or 66 percent of the purported 15.4 billion barrels of
technically recoverable Monterey tight oil resources in the EIA/INTEK report.
8/13/2019 Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"
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Figures from Dril l ing Californ ia:A Reali ty Check on the Monterey Shale
by J. David Hughes (2013).
Read the whole report at
montereyoil.org
All material copyright 2013 by J. David
Hughes unless otherwise indicated.
For reprint requests and other inquiries,
please contact Post Carbon Institute at
postcarbon.org
http://montereyoil.org/http://postcarbon.org/http://postcarbon.org/http://montereyoil.org/