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Fifth US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions. Ron Rancourt, David French Topics: Peak Oil defined; Review of the conference; Individual and community solutions. Presentation Available online: http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com. World Peak Oil defined. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Fifth US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions
Ron Rancourt, David French
Topics: Peak Oil defined; Review of the conference; Individual and community solutions.
Presentation Available online: http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
World Peak Oil defined
The point at which world oil production maxes out, and begins to decline forever.
July 2008 (we are at the peak)
Geologist M. King Hubbert famously predicted US Peak oil in 1956, 14 years before it occurred in 1970.
2
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World Peak Oil cont..
A Global Supply-Demand problem
China, India growing, becoming more affluent
World oil sources are in decline
No significant new discoveries being made despite massive investment
Last remaining sources are in politically unsettled countries
Current exporting countries are keeping more for themselves!
http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
There is only so much oil...Supply-Demand Gap
Source: www.aspo-ireland.org
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There is only so much oil...Supply-Demand Gap
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http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
Implications
World demand on decreasing supply forces prices up
The cost of everything increases
No substitution for easily accessible, cheap oil
No technological quick-fix
If it wasn't for the current global financial crisis we would see $150/barrel oil today.
http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
Alberta Tar Sands
Worst environmental disaster in Cdn history.
Consumes massive amounts of natural gas and fresh water to process bitumen
Can't meet demand
Other liquid alternatives to oil can't make up the difference either
EROI (Energy Return on Investment) on oil alternatives is too low
http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
Alberta Tar Sands: Syncrude
The Syncrude Canada oil sands upgrader facility in Fort McMurray (Larry MacDougal_Globe and Mail)
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http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
http://www.plancconference.org
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Individual and Community Solutions
Plan C: Curtailment, Community
Individuals have most potential to make a difference: Our Housing, Food and Transportation
amounts to 2/3 of all personal energy consumption.
Eco-Village/Intentional Community options.
Local Food, local economy
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Urban CitiesCost to build and maintain roads, infrastructure and services will rise dramatically
Ottawa has and will postpone/cancel road/bridge projects due to high fuel costs. Transit is the way to go.
Buildings: Retrofit incentives required for homes and commercial buildings for energy efficiency beyond LEED, EcoStar.
Forward thinking? Time is running out.
Governments are slow moving, often stand in the way of progress. It's up to us.
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Urban Cities
Poor design promotes sprawling suburbs Expensive to service, maintain
Ottawa has unique characteristics: Spread out East West Greenbelt, since 1958, was intended to prevent
sprawl, today it's used as an excuse to support it.
Developers, the OMB rule.
OttawaPeople are starting to understand that the city's finances -- driven by rapid suburban growth, demand for more government services and sharply rising costs for those services -- are not sustainable.
Patrick Dare, The Ottawa CitizenPublished: Monday, November 10, 2008
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Changing Cities
Post Carbon Cities Guide
Take examples from successful cities around the world.
Fast-track energy reducing policies, incentives
Divert more money from road budget to rail transit, bicycle network
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Changing CitiesPreparing for Peak OilA new guide for municipalities
By the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (UK) and Post Carbon Institute
www.odac-info.org
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http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com
Individual Choices
Drive less, go from 2 cars to 1, share a vehicle with a neighbour Smart Jitney, Vrtu-car, CommunAuto
Buy Local Food, share a garden
Insulate your house
German Passive House (heat it with a hair dryer!)
Passive Solar space/water heating
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House InsulationConsider whole-house as a system. Before replacing your furnace, look at your
building envelope. Air quality, humidity, energy use
Building practices past and future:
We were not concerned with leaky houses since energy was cheap.
Now we need airtight houses with smaller heating/cooling requirements
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German Passive House
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Solar hot water
Cost effective, shorter payback than PV electricity
H2Ottawa project to help people through the process - http://www.sustainableottawa.ca/
Can be used with radiant floor heating, and combined with other water heating systems
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References Passive House UK: www.passivehouse.co.uk
Ottawa Citizen Nov 10: City Cash woes veer out of control
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/city/story.html?id=d160c2d0-1248-4536-9b93-c5bd444e5dff
Greber plan, Greenbelt, Ottawa history: http://www.teskey.com/ottawa/
Peak Oil Analysis
http://theoildrum.com
Association for the stufy of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO): www.peakoil.net
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
Response to Peak Oil
http://www.postcarbon.org
http://postcarboncities.net
Reports from other cities (Hamilton), provinces, states that are taking action: http://postcarboncities.net/peakoilactions