Field Poll: BROWN HOLDS BIG EARLY LEAD OVER KASHKARI FOR GOVERNOR

8/12/2019 Field Poll: BROWN HOLDS BIG EARLY LEAD OVER KASHKARI FOR GOVERNOR

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THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY

OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS

THE CALIFORNIA POLLBY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation601 California Street, Suite 210San Francisco, CA 94108-2814

(415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541EMAIL: [email protected]/fieldpollonline

Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

THE

FIELD

POLLRelease #2472 Release Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2014

BROWN HOLDS BIG EARLY LEAD

OVER KASHKARI FOR GOVERNOR.

IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject

to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place

before release date or if contents are divulged topersons outside of subscriber staff prior to release

time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

The results of the latestField Poll show incumbent Democratic Governor Jerry Brown leading

Republican challenger Neel Kashkari by twenty points, 52% to 32%, among likely voters in this

yearsgubernatorial election.

A defining characteristic of the race at this stage relates to the huge differences in the proportions of

voters offering an opinion of the two candidates. Currently, 85% can offer either a positive or

negative appraisal of Brown, while only about half as many (44%) can do so with regard to

Kashkari.

Brown is regarded favorably by 54% of likely voters, while 31% have an unfavorable opinion.

Following his second place showing in the June primary, Kashkari is viewed favorably by 28%,while 16% of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of him.

In addition, thePollfinds 54% of voters approving of the job Brown is doing as governor, while

29% disapprove.

The post-primary electionField Pollwas conducted among 2,013 California adults, including 1,382

registered voters and 982 are considered likely to vote in the November general election. To capture

the racial and ethnic diversity of California, the poll was administered in six languages and dialects.

Table 1

Voter preferences for Governor in the November 2014 general election

Likelyvoters

All registeredvoters

Jerry Brown (D) 52% 50%

Neel Kashkari (R) 32 28

Undecided 16 22

(D) denotes Democrat (R) denotes Republican


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The Field Poll #2472

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 2

Brown favored by wide margins among most voter subgroups

Browns current lead over Kashkari is very broad-based, although highly partisan. Democrats prefer

Brown by a better than an eleven-to-one margin (82% to 7%). Among no party preference and other

voters, Brown also holds a nearly two-to-one advantage over Kashkari, 49% to 25%. By contrast,

Kashkari is favored among Republicans more than five to one (71% to 13%).

Brown is overwhelmingly supported by political liberals and holds a greater than two-to-one

advantage among middle-of-the-road in politics. Kashkari leads by a greater than seven to one

margin among strongly conservative voters, but runs no better than even among moderate

conservatives.

Brown has big preference leads among voters in the states two largest metropolitan areas, Los

Angles County and the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, which constitute about half of the

likely electorate. Browns lead in Los Angeles County is greater than two to one, while among Bay

Area voters he holds a nearly four-to-one advantage. Kashkari runs about even with Brown amongvoters in the South Coast, other parts of Southern California outside of Los Angeles and in the

Central Valley. However, in other parts of Northern California outside the Bay Area Brown is

favored.

Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are backing the Governor by very large margins.

Brown is also preferred by white non-Hispanics but by a narrower ten-point margin49% to 39%.

The Governor holds leads among voters in all age groups and among both men and women.


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Table 2

Voter preferences for governor across political and demographic subgroups(among likely voters)

Brown Kashkari Undecided

Total statewide 52% 32 16Party registration

Democrats 82% 7 11

Republicans 13% 71 16

No party preference/other 49% 25 26

Political ideologyStrongly conservative 10% 75 15

Moderately conservative 40% 42 18

Middle-of-the-road 56% 26 18

Moderately liberal 76% 9 15

Strongly liberal 90% 3 7

RegionLos Angeles County 57% 26 17

South Coast(Orange and San Diego counties) 41% 41 18

Other Southern California 41% 46 13

Central Valley 42% 40 17

San Francisco Bay Area 68% 19 13

Other Northern California* 51% 22 27

GenderMale 49% 34 17

Female 54% 31 15

Age18-39 51% 28 21

40-49 53% 28 19

50-64 51% 37 12

65 or older 53% 34 13

Race/ethnicityWhite non-Hispanic 49% 39 12

Latino 52% 26 22

African American* 76% 9 15

Asian American* 47% 21 32

* Small sample base.

Huge difference in proportions of voters offering an opinion of the candidates

A defining element of the gubernatorial election contest in the early going is the huge difference in

the proportion of voters offering an opinion of the two candidates.

Currently 85% of likely voters offer an opinion of Brown and it divides 54% favorable and 31%

unfavorable. Just 44% of voters can rate Kashkari, with 28% viewing him favorably and 16%

unfavorably.


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Table 3

Trend of voter image ratings of the gubernatorial candidates(among likely voters)

Jerry Brown Favorable Unfavorable No opinion

June 2014* 54% 31 15April 2014* 61% 35 4

December 2013 56% 37 7

June 2011 58% 31 11

Late October 2010* 47% 47 6

September 2010* 44% 47 9

July 2010* 42% 40 18

March 2010* 41% 37 22

January 2010* 44% 32 24

October 2009 44% 29 27

October 2005 39% 31 30

May 1992 38% 58 4

May 1991 40% 45 15

February 1990 42% 47 11

July 1986 44% 50 6

May 1980 49% 50 1

May 1978 71% 23 6

May 1977 69% 21 10

Neel KashkariJune 2014* 28% 16 56

April 2014* 16% 20 64December 2013 9% 8 83

* Survey conducted among likely voters. Other surveys among all registered voters.

Opinions of Brown have waxed and waned over the years

Brown, 76, has been a prominent figure on the states political stage for over forty years. While he

is now Californias 39th

Governor, he previously served as the states 34th

Governor between 1975

and 1983. Before and after his terms as Governor, Brown also served in numerous state and local

positions, including Secretary of State, chair of the State Democratic Party, Mayor of Oakland and

Attorney General. In addition, he unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination forPresident in1976,1980,and1992,and lost to Republican Pete Wilson in the 1982 election for U.S. Senate.

Browns popularity with California voters has waxed and waned over the years. In May 1978,

shortly before his re-election to a second term as Governor, The Field Pollfound 71% of voters

viewed him favorably and 23% held an unfavorable opinion. Fourteen years later in May 1992,

during Browns third unsuccessful bid for President, 58% of California voters viewed him

negatively and 38% held a positive view.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States


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A review of Browns job performance as governor during his current and former tenures exhibit

similar positive and negative gyrations. Brown received very positive job performance ratings from

voters during the initial years of his first term as Governor in the mid-1970s. In fact, the approval

ratings that Brown received in 1975 and 1976 were among the highest ever recorded by The Field

Poll, with 66% - 69% of voters approving of his performance. However, by the middle of hissecond term, voter opinions of Brownsperformance turned negative and from May 1979 to the end

of his second term voters consistently disapproved than approved of the job he was doing.

In each of nine separateField Pollmeasures conducted during the first two years of his current

term, a plurality have approved of the job Brown was doing. In five subsequent measures completed

since February 2013 large majorities, ranging from 51% to 59%, have rated him positively. At

present, 54% of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 29% disapprove.


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Kashkaris history

Kashkari, 41, was born and raised in Ohio and graduated from theUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-

Champaign.He worked initially as an aerospace engineer. After attending business school at the

Wharton School of theUniversity of Pennsylvania,he changed careers and became aninvestment

banker,covering the information technology security sector forGoldman Sachs.

In 2008 he was appointedAssistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stabilityby President

George W. Bush. In that post he oversaw theTroubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that was a

major component of the U.S. government's response to thefinancial crisis of 200708.

Kashkari left government in May 2009 and took an executive position for the Pacific Investment

Management Company (Pimco) later that year. In January 2013 he resigned from Pimco to explore

a run for public office, and in January 2014 he announced his candidacy for Governor of California.

Kashkari finished second in the June open primary, receiving 19.4% of the vote to Browns 54.3%.

Thirteen other candidates accounted for the remaining 26.3% of the vote.

30
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Illinois_at_Urbana%E2%80%93Champaignhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Illinois_at_Urbana%E2%80%93Champaignhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wharton_Schoolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_bankerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_bankerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldman_Sachshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assistant_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_for_Financial_Stabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Programhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%9308http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%9308http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%9308http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%9308http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Programhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assistant_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_for_Financial_Stabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldman_Sachshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_bankerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_bankerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wharton_Schoolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Illinois_at_Urbana%E2%80%93Champaignhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Illinois_at_Urbana%E2%80%93Champaign


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Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on aField Poll completed June 5-22, 2014. The survey was conductedamong a random sample of 2,013 California adults, of whom 1,382 reported being registered to vote and 982are considered likely to vote in the November general election. Some of the questions in this report were

based on a random subsample of the total registered voter sample.

To capture the diversity of the California adult population, the survey was administered in six languages anddialectsEnglish, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference ofthe voter.

The sample was developed using dual frame random digit dial landline and cell phone listings covering thestate of California. For this survey, a total of 1,402 interviews were conducted with respondents on their cell

phone and 611 were conducted on a landline or other type of phone. The combined landline and cell phonesample was weighted to match demographic, geographic and voter registration estimates of the adult

population in California. The weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching

respondents who receive calls on both a landline and cell phone.

Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size andthe percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overallregistered voter sample is +/- 2.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings based on thelikely voter sample have a maximum sampling error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. In addition, the maximum

sample error applicable to findings based on the random subsample of voters is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The maximum sampling error estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the samplingdistribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at either tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveysof public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought tominimize these other possible errors.

The Field Pollwas established in 1947 as The California Pollby Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor.

The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public

opinion. The Poll receives funding from media subscribers, from California foundations and independentnot-for-profit organizations, and from the University of California and California State University systems,who receive the data files from eachField Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondaryresearch purposes.

Questions Asked

(ASKED OF A RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF 724REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the wayJerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California?

(ASKED OF 982LIKELY VOTERS) In the upcoming November general election for Governor, the candidates

are (NAMES AND PARTIES OF CANDIDATES IN RANDOM ORDER).If the election were being held today, for

whom would you vote for Governor?(ASKED OF 982LIKELY VOTERS) Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of

(Governor Jerry Brown) (businessman Neel Kashkari)? (READ IN RANDOM ORDER)

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Field Poll: BROWN HOLDS BIG EARLY LEAD OVER KASHKARI FOR GOVERNOR