Field Performance of a Genetic Algorithm in the Settlement Prediction of a Thick Soft Clay Deposit in the Southern Part of the Korean Peninsula 2015 E

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    Field Performance of a Genetic Algorithm in the Settlement Prediction of a

    Thick Soft Clay Deposit in the Southern Part of the Korean Peninsula

    Hyun Il Park, Kyu-Sun Kim, Ha Young Kim

    PII: S0013-7952(15)30021-1

    DOI: doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.07.012

    Reference: ENGEO 4104

    To appear in: Engineering Geology

    Received date: 27 August 2014

    Revised date: 15 July 2015

    Accepted date: 16 July 2015

    Please cite this article as: Park, Hyun Il, Kim, Kyu-Sun, Kim, Ha Young, Field Per-formance of a Genetic Algorithm in the Settlement Prediction of a Thick Soft ClayDeposit in the Southern Part of the Korean Peninsula,Engineering Geology (2015), doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.07.012

    This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication.As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript.The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proofbefore it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production processerrors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers thatapply to the journal pertain.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.07.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.07.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.07.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.07.012
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    Field Performance of a Genetic Algorithm in the Settlement Prediction of a Thick Soft Clay

    Deposit in the Southern Part of the Korean Peninsula

    Hyun Il Park1

    , Kyu-Sun Kim2, and Ha Young Kim

    3

    Abstract

    Long-term settlement data of a thick soft clay deposit improved by vertical drains frequently

    shows different field settlement behavior from laboratory-driven predictions by conventional

    theories due to the variability and uncertainty of the soil properties, modeling simplifications,

    and types of prediction methods. This paper presents the field application of a back-analysis

    method based on a genetic algorithm (GA) to evaluate the performance of a new settlement

    prediction method compared with conventional graphical settlement prediction methods, such as

    the hyperbolic method and the Asaoka method. The GA back-analysis method shows better

    flexibility in modifying surcharging plans and adaptability to multi-layered thick soft soil

    deposits at the early stages of post-construction settlements. Thus, this new settlement prediction

    method enables geotechnical engineers to subsequently modify the heights of surcharge fills

    subsequently in accordance with field settlement data monitored in the interim for rapid and cost-

    effective construction. The comparative results show that the GA back-analysis method is

    capable of superior field performance in settlement predictions compared with two conventional

    1 Principal Research Engineer, Construction Technology Division, Samsung C&T Corporation, Seoul 135-935

    Korea, Email:[email protected] Principal Research Engineer, Construction Technology Division, Samsung C&T Corporation, Seoul 135-935

    Korea. E-mail:[email protected] (Corresponding author)3 General Manager, Technical Advisory Team, Samsung C&T Corporation, Seoul 137-956 Korea. E-mail:

    [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    graphical methods, within a margin of less than 200 mm in a thick soft clay deposit with multiple

    layers under complex loading conditions.

    Highlights

    We assessed the field performance of the GA method in settlement prediction. The GA method shows a higher performance in a multi-layered thick soft soil deposit. The GA method predicts the final settlement at the early stage of construction.

    KeywordsBack analysis; Consolidation; Genetic algorithm; Settlement prediction; Soft clay; Vertical drain

    1. Introduction

    Over the past two decades, several construction projects in Korea have been built on thick soft

    soil deposits to create new national infrastructure, such as container ports and a new international

    airport, which were built on reclaimed areas. As a cost-effective soil improvement method,

    embankment preloading associated with vertical drains is commonly used to accelerate the

    consolidation process and predict the consolidation settlements of foundation soils due to

    surcharge loading. Settlement prediction in a large-construction project is an important issue for

    rapid and cost-effective construction; however, it is frequently reported that geotechnical

    engineers fail to obtain accurate predictions of the long-term field settlements of soft soils even if

    a robust calculation with advanced geotechnical technology was implemented during the design

    stage. Significant errors in settlement predictions during ground improvement work have been

    reported in many construction sites in Korea. Recent construction records in the southern part of

    Korea indicate that the observed settlements are is generally 1.5 to 3 times greater than the

    predicted settlements predicted in the design stage. It is thought expected that these errors in

    settlement prediction errors are mainly caused by the variability and uncertainty of the soil

    properties (Kim, 2008; Chung et al., 2009; Park et al., 2009; Chung et al., 2012).

    Although the accuracy of numerical schemes and testing techniques has been significantly

    improved, there are still errors between the predicted and observed magnitudes of settlement

    during a prediction and during an observation. Possible reasons for these errors are the following

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    as follows: (1) sampling disturbances and effective stress condition during sampling, delivery,

    and trimming procedures; (2) a simplified analysis model, loading condition, boundary condition,

    and initial condition used during the design stage; (3) measurement errors caused by operators

    and systems; and (4) variability and uncertainty of the soil properties (Bjerrum, 1967;

    Jamiolkowski et al., 1985; Terzaghi et al., 1996). Graphical methods using observed settlement

    data are commonly used employed as practical tools for interpreting field settlement data to

    reduce the variability and uncertainty of the consolidation parameters governing the magnitude

    of the consolidation settlement (Asaoka, 1978; Tan and Chew, 1996).

    Soil improvement performance levels are usually evaluated by analyzing analysis of the

    monitored settlement data for comparison with laboratory-driven settlements determined during

    the design stage. The magnitude of the additional surcharge load and the surcharge period can be

    finally determined based on the interpretation of field settlement data. The consolidation

    parameters in a thick soft clay deposit with vertical drains are the main points of interest in

    predicting long-term consolidation settlements. The consolidation settlement of a vertical drain

    installed in a soft soil layer is calculated based on Barrons equation. Several observational

    methods based on settlement records are available to predict future settlement behavior,

    specifically the hyperbolic method and the Asaoka method. By extrapolating extrapolation from

    observed settlement data, many uncertainties regarding the variability of the soil and as well as

    the magnitude and the distribution of loads can be overcome (Tan et al., 1991; Asaoka, 1978).

    These graphical methods simply predict the final settlements by means of curve fitting from

    observed settlement data. Therefore, observed settlement data after removal of surcharge loads

    are used to predict the final settlements related to the degree of consolidation. However, these

    methods are not suitable for use when predicting field settlements during unloading and

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    reloading after the removal of the surcharge load and when adjusting the height and period of the

    surcharging embankment (Park et al., 2009).

    The BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno) method, the quasi-Newton method, and the

    conjugate gradient method are conventional optimization methods for consolidation-related

    back-analysis problems (Arai et al., 1983; Sakurai and Takeuchi, 1983; Shoji et al., 1990; Kim

    and Lee, 1997; Park et al., 2009). These methods have been are used for consolidation problems

    with a small numbers of consolidation parameters in one or two clay layers. However, the

    number of consolidation parameters in a multi-layered problem is typically greater than that in a

    single layer problem. This multi-dimensional optimization problem complicates the process of

    estimating consolidation parameters when attempting to predict the consolidation settlement of

    foundation soils accurately. Several optimization schemes generate either local or global

    solutions depending on the initial values of the variables used. Furthermore, as the number of the

    variables for the optimization process increases, the chance of a solution converging locally

    rather than globally increases (Renders and Flasse, 1996; Leung and Wang, 2001). Therefore, in

    a multi-layered soft clay deposit, it is necessary to use a robust technique that guarantees

    convergence to a global solution. A back-analysis method based on a genetic algorithm (GA) can

    be used as a parallel and global search tool that emulates natural genetic operators. GAs

    generally show better performance when searching for a solution than conventional optimization

    algorithms because GAs, which make use of an entire set of solutions spread throughout the

    solution space, are less affected by local optima (Holland, 1975; Goldberg, 1989; Keane, 1995).

    Park et al. (2009) showed that the GA back-analysis method has the advantage of robustly

    searching for a global solution while avoiding local solutions compared to with conventional

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    optimization schemes in a multi-dimensional consolidation problem with three consolidation

    layers.

    In this study, the GA back-analysis method was implemented to improve the field

    performance of settlement predictions. The accuracy and capability of the settlement prediction

    methods were investigated to evaluate the performance of settlement predictions settlement

    prediction performance using field settlement data from a large construction site in Busan on

    thick soft clay layers consisting of multiple-clay layers with a complex geological history.

    2. Site Description

    2.1 Soil Characterization

    The studied site is located near in the southern coastal area of the Korean peninsula. The site

    was mainly formed by an accumulation of a deltaic deposit near the Nakdong River. The thick

    deltaic deposit area was formed as a valley caused by the vertical movement of the Yangsan fault

    during the Cenozoic era. Various types of geo-materials have been deposited in the valley via the

    river stream flow (Kim,2008). A representative sectional profile near the studied site is shown in

    Figure 1. The sand Sand and gravel materials were deposited in the valley first. , and then, Then,

    the soft soil deposit was followed by the deposition of different geo-materials affected by marine

    transgression and regression during a the area's geological history. The sedimentary deposit can

    be categorized into four layers: upper clay, silty sand, lower clay, and bottom sand and gravel

    layers. The bottom sand and gravel layer is thick enough to hold fresh water in the an aquifer.

    The silty sand layer in the middle is sandwiched by between the upper and lower clay layers.

    Soft soil layers with different engineering characteristics have been deposited by affecting by the

    flow of the river water, as well as the marine transgression and regression. The soft soil layers

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    can be categorized into two distinct silty clay layers as the upper and lower clay layers. The basic

    characteristic of the upper clay layer basically shows a normally consolidated state with a soft to

    medium consistency; however, the lower clay layer shows stiff to very stiff characteristics. The

    total thickness of the whole upper and lower clay layers ranges from approximately 50 m to 80 m

    (Chung et al.,2002; 2012; Kim,2008).

    The silty clay soils in the studied site are generally classified as CL and CH soils in

    accordance with the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS). Figure 2 shows the profiles of

    liquid and plastic limits, water content, initial void ratio, compression index, and

    overconsolidation ratio of the upper and lower clay layers. There is a distinct separation around

    the expected border of the upper and lower clay layers in the soil profiles. The values tend to

    increase with depths above 25 m; however, they tend to reversely decrease below depths of 25 m.

    When considering this distinct difference between two groups of data in the property profiles, the

    clay layer can be divided into two representative layers as the upper clay layer and lower clay

    layer. The laboratory-driven design values of the compression index (C c) are 0.9 for the upper

    clay layer and 0.6 for the lower clay layer. The laboratory-driven horizontal coefficient of

    consolidation (ch) is 8.5 10-3

    m2/day for both the upper and lower clay layers. The

    overconsolidation ratio of the upper clay layer ranges from 1.0 to 3.0 with depth, indicating

    normally consolidated to lightly overconsolidated conditions, respectively. Generally, the

    overconsolidated conditions of the upper clay layer are assumed to be normally consolidated due

    to the conservative design in estimating the magnitude of consolidation settlement.

    2.2 Construction Plan of Studied Site

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    plates. Two graphical settlement prediction methods (i.e., hyperbolic method, and Asaoka

    method) and the GA back-analysis method were implemented to compare the results of

    settlement predictions results. The field settlements were was monitored for about 540 days for

    this comparative performance evaluation in of settlement predictions.

    3. Observational Methods in Predicting Ground Settlement

    In preloading embankments with vertical drains on soft soil deposits, differences between

    observed and predicted settlements frequently are induced from by the variability and uncertainty

    of the soil properties. To supplement address the these differences, the degree of consolidation

    should be determined by the interpretation of the observed settlement data using graphical

    methods or a back-analysis method. In this study, observed settlement data obtained from in a

    construction site were used to predict final settlements by using the GA back-analysis method

    (Park et al., 2009), the conventional hyperbolic method (Tan et al., 1991), and the Asaoka

    method (Asaoka, 1978). Semi-empirical graphical methods (i.e., hyperbolic method, and

    Asaokas method) are practical in for settlement predictions because they rely on observed

    settlement data to predict the end of primary consolidation, which can be updated as more

    observed settlement data become available using simple calculation and curve fitting. However,

    the conventional methods sometimes have limitations in some aspects of the time interval of

    observed settlement data and the minimum period duration of monitoring duration (Edil et al.,

    1991; Tan et al., 1991). The hyperbolic method can predict final settlement using settlement data

    at the start of construction; however, settlement predictions for long-term field behavior using

    the early-stage settlement data sometimes mislead skew the results of settlement predictions.

    Thus, Therefore, before using the hyperbolic method, it is recommended to collect settlement

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    data when the data reach more than a 60% degree of consolidation before using the hyperbolic

    method. The Asaoka method uses the end of construction settlement data, and settlement

    predictions can only be made after the end of construction; thus, hence, the Asaoka method takes

    a longer time to predict future settlement compared with the hyperbolic method (Tan and Chew,

    1996; Chung et al., 2009). Thus, the performance of the selected observational methods should

    be carefully evaluated from the characteristic of the curve plotted.

    A back-analysis technique has been used as an alternative tool to replace conventional semi-

    empirical methods not only to accurately predict final settlements but also to inversely evaluate

    back-analyzed parameters (Sakurai and Takeuchi, 1983; Gioda and Sakurai, 1987). The

    differences between the results of numerical simulation to estimate soil behavior and the actual

    measured data are defined as an objective function; then, the back-analysis technique inversely

    estimates input parameters using an optimization scheme to minimize the value of the objective

    function. The consolidation parameters containing actual field settlement behavior can be

    estimated through a back-analysis procedure using measured settlement data. Through this

    procedure, the design quality can be evaluated by estimating residual settlements by loading and

    unloading, and the optimized design is conducted determined by optimization of the height and

    period for surcharge loading. Park et al. (2009) proposed the GA back-analysis method to

    inversely analyze multiple design parameters for multi-layered consolidation settlement data and

    then evaluated the performance of the proposed method with other optimization schemes for

    model problems. In this study, the collected field settlement data collected during the

    consolidation process were interpreted by graphical fitting methods and the GA back-analysis

    method to evaluate the magnitudes of final settlements of thick soft soil layers caused by

    embankment preloading.

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    3.1 Settlement Prediction Model in Soft Soils Improved by Vertical Drains

    Barron (1948) proposed an analytical solution to calculate the consolidation settlement of a

    soil layer where a vertical drain is installed that considers free-strain and equivalent-strain

    constraints based on Terzaghis one-dimensional consolidation theory. The consolidation

    analysis based on the equivalent strain condition assumes that the initial surcharge loading is all

    applied as excess pore water pressure, that the strain develops in a vertical direction, and that the

    influence boundary of the vertical drainage is circular. The time factor of consolidation (Th) is

    determined from Eq. (1-a), and the relationship between the average degree of consolidation

    (Uavg) and the time factor of consolidation is expressed in Eq. (1-b). Using these relations, the

    final settlement (sf) of a soft clay deposit is calculated from Eq. (1-d) in the design stage.

    2

    e

    hh

    d

    tcT

    (1-a)

    )n(F

    T8exp1U havg (1-b)

    2

    2

    2

    2

    n4

    1n3)nln(

    1n

    n)n(F

    (1-c)

    '0

    '0

    0

    cf logH

    e1

    Cs (1-d)

    where n is the spacing ratio (n = de/dw = 27.2), chis the horizontal consolidation coefficient, This

    the time factor, de is the equivalent diameter of the drain (de = 1.13S = 1.36 m), dw is the

    drainage diameter (dw = 0.05 m), Uavg is the average consolidation ratio, F(n) is the drainage

    spacing influence factor, sf is the final settlement, Cc is the compression index, e0is the initial

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    void ratio, H is the thickness of clay layer, r0 is the initial effective stress, 0 is the effective

    stress, and is the surcharge load.

    3.2 Hyperbolic Method

    The hyperbolic method is the most popular settlement prediction method. The method

    assumes that the shape of the future settlement curve is hyperbolic. Since a hyperbolic

    relationship can generate future settlement behavior with only the initial settlement data, this

    method can be a powerful tool for settlement predictions. However, geotechnical engineers need

    to make sure to must collect sufficient settlement data to improve the accuracy of their prediction

    in the final settlement to prevent unexpected excess settlement at the end of construction (Tan et

    al., 1991; Tan, 1993; 1995).

    The ratio of elapsed time (t-t0) and the settlement during elapsed time (st-s0) can be plotted as

    shown in Fig. 3(a). , and then, Then, slope and intercept in the y-axis are determined by a

    linear regression. Finally, the final settlement (sf) is calculated by Eq. (2-b):

    tss

    t

    0t

    (2-a)

    1

    ss 0f (2-b)

    where stis the settlement at time t, s0is the settlement at the end of surcharging at t 0, and and

    are the empirical constants of the hyperbolic equation.

    3.3 Asaoka Method

    Asaoka (1978) proposed a graphical method to predict the final settlement (sf) based on an

    observation procedure. The Asaoka method has been broadly used to predict the magnitude and

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    value was determined at the generation number of 30 to obtain consistent results. Figure 6 shows

    the variations of consolidation parameters during the optimization procedure by back calculation

    with a 30-day interval. After 220 days (U 40%), the induced consolidation parameters tended

    to be constant regardless of measurement periods.

    Figure 7 shows the comparative compares the results of the predicted settlement curve by

    design, measurement, as well as the back-analysis stages depending on in relation to a specified

    time period. The GA back-analysis method predicts predicted the settlement behavior very well

    compared to with the measured settlement data. The difference between the predicted final

    settlements predicted by back calculation at a 35% degree of consolidation and back calculation

    at a 65% degree of consolidation is was less than 200 mm. This result shows that the GA back-

    analysis method shows a has better prediction capability at the early stage of the post-

    construction settlement even if the degree of consolidation is less than 50%.

    The back-analyzed parameters at each settlement plate are summarized in Table 2. The

    results show that the consolidation parameters induced from the field settlement data are were

    significantly different from the laboratory-driven parameters. In the upper clay layer, the back-

    analyzed compression index is was generally underestimated in comparison with the laboratory-

    driven compression index; however, the results in the lower clay layer showed a reverse trend. In

    addition, the coefficient of consolidation is was generally overestimated in at the design stage

    compared with the laboratory-driven parameter. The back-analyzed compression index of the

    upper clay layer ranges ranged from 0.18 to 0.58, and that of the lower clay layer ranges ranged

    from 0.71 to 1.10. The compression indexes of the upper clay layer and lower clay layer at the

    design stage were originally 0.9 and 0.6, respectively. However, the results of the back analysis

    showed a reverse trend compared with the design values. This reverse trend includes complex

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    measured settlements. On the other hand, the Asaoka method generally underestimates

    underestimated the final settlement, which may cause lead to the application of an additional

    surcharge fill to satisfy the design criterion. Thus, when geotechnical engineers consider

    determining the completion of a consolidation settlement of clay deposit (e.g., U > 90%), they

    need to know the characteristics of a selected settlement prediction method in order to avoid

    additional construction cost. The comparative results A comparison of the performance in

    settlement predictions performance results shows that the GA back-analysis method most

    accurately predicts provides the most effective results in predicting the final settlement. The GA

    back-analysis method provides the lowest amount of error variance when predicting final

    settlement amounts (< 200 mm), followed by the Asaoka method (< 500 mm) and the hyperbolic

    method (< 600 mm).

    5. Field Application of Modified Surcharging Plan

    Field geotechnical engineers are required to check and modify a design surcharging plan

    during construction to reflect the actual field conditions in the of settlement management. Thus,

    Therefore, they should check and predict whether the field settlement will be completed with

    achieving above 90% consolidation using a reliable settlement prediction method. The beauty of

    the GA back-analysis method is its flexibility to easily modify the surcharging fill using the

    back-analyzed consolidation parameters. For example, the original and modified surcharging

    plans and the settlement curves of the plate SP-12 are shown in Fig. 9. One-hundred and ninety

    days after loading, field settlement was greater than the showed excessive settlement compared

    to settlement predicted in the design stage. Thus, it was expected that the settlement could not

    satisfy the design criterion of 90% consolidation settlement within the given construction period.

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    Thus, the height of the surcharge fill was recalculated using the consolidation parameters back-

    analyzed from the settlement measured for 190 days using the GA. and then, Then, it was

    determined that an additional 5 m surcharge fill would be required to satisfy the design criterion

    of 90% consolidation settlement within a specified construction period. The final result shows

    that the GA back-analysis method can modify the surcharging plan and predict future settlement

    behavior using back-analyzed consolidation parameters at the early stage of construction (260

    days, U < 50%).

    6. Conclusion

    A comparative evaluation of the performances of settlement prediction methods was

    conducted for a site on a multi-layered thick soft clay deposit in Korea. Settlement data from 13

    settlement plates at the site during embankment preloading were used to evaluate the accuracy of

    the settlement prediction methods. The results showed that the GA back analysis method offers

    better accuracy when used to predict the final settlement even when the surcharging plan is

    modified at the early stage of construction. The specific findings of this study are summarized as

    follows:

    1) Among the three settlement prediction methods assessed, the hyperbolic method tends to

    overestimate the final settlements compared to with the other two methods; however, the

    variances of the predicted settlements in the hyperbolic method are smaller than those in the

    Asaoka method.

    2) In the upper clay layer, the back-analyzed compression index is generally underestimated in

    comparison with the laboratory-driven compression index; however, the results in the lower

    clay layer show a reverse trend. In addition, the coefficient of consolidation is generally

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    overestimated in the design stage compared with the laboratory-driven parameter. These

    discrepancies may be caused by due to the conservative design concept in the lightly

    overconsolidated region and the effect of sampling disturbances.

    3) The GA back-analysis method gave achieved the most reliable and consistent settlement

    predictions for most of the 13 settlement records within a margin of less than 200 mm

    compared with recorded settlements measurements.

    4) The GA back-analysis method shows the lowest amount of error variance when predicting

    final amounts of settlement amounts (< 200 mm), followed by the Asaoka method (< 500

    mm) and the hyperbolic method (< 600 mm).

    5) The GA back-analysis method can predict the final settlements with back-analyzed

    parameters at an early stage of construction (U < 50%) regardless of modifications to the

    surcharging plan.

    The overall results showed that the GA back-analysis method offers better accuracy when used

    to predict the final settlement even when the surcharging plan is modified at the early stage of

    construction. However, a small number of variables (Ccand ch) in each layer were implemented

    to the GA back-analysis method of this study to minimize the calculation time for the practical

    use of a settlement management tool at the construction site. Thus, if we need to obtain more

    accurate settlement predictions, we may consider using more variables during the GA back

    analysis to predict much closer curve-fitting to the actual settlement behavior under complex

    loading conditions on multi-layered soft soil deposits.

    Acknowledgements

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    The authors acknowledge the support of the Construction Technology Division of Samsung

    C&T Corporation. The authors appreciate the constructive comments and suggestions from the

    anonymous reviewers.

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    Table 1.Basic parameters for optimization using the genetic algorithm.

    Parameters Values

    Number of individuals 1000

    Probability of reproduction (%) 70 %

    Probability of mutation (%) 0.5 %

    Number of maximum generations 30

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    Table 2.Sectional information and back-analyzed consolidation parameters.

    Settlement

    Plate

    Thickness (m)

    Height ofsurcharge

    fill (m)

    Back-analyzed parameters

    Upper

    claylayer

    Lower

    claylayer

    Ccch10

    -3

    (m2/day)

    Upperclay

    layer

    Lowerclay

    layer

    Upperclay

    layer

    Lowerclay

    layer

    SP-1 30.0 25.0 18.6 0.38 0.77 9.20 74.63

    SP-2 30.0 20.0 18.2 0.38 0.94 8.83 43.23

    SP-3 22.2 20.0 18.1 0.31 0.89 6.48 19.25

    SP-4 22.5 20.0 19.9 0.31 1.05 9.13 14.72

    SP-5 22.7 12.0 19.2 0.45 1.09 8.29 18.75

    SP-6 22.0 10.0 16.3 0.45 0.96 37.57 6.79

    SP-7 22.0 10.0 16.7 0.40 1.10 9.38 45.00

    SP-8 18.5 - 14.9 0.45 - 18.15 -

    SP-9 11.5 - 13.5 0.36 - 1.50 -

    SP-10 8.5 - 10.9 0.18 - 16.81 -

    SP-11 8.5 - 11.0 0.39 - 11.44 -

    SP-12 23.0 7.0 18.0 0.58 0.71 10.52 98.36

    SP-13 16.7 - 10.3 0.26 - 18.26 -

    * Note: Cc (design)= 0.9 (upper clay layer), 0.6 (lower clay layer)

    ch (design)= 8.510-3

    m2

    /day (upper and lower clay layers)

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    Table 3.Predicted final settlements by settlement estimation methods.

    SettlementPlate

    Measuredfinal

    settlement(m)

    Predicted final settlement (m)

    Design

    stage

    Hyperbolic

    method

    Asaokas

    method

    Genetic

    Algorithm

    SP-1 5.19 6.84 5.56 5.14 5.35

    SP-2 5.44 5.87 5.88 4.94 5.57

    SP-3 5.96 6.51 6.50 5.62 6.11

    SP-4 5.55 5.37 6.04 5.62 5.58

    SP-5 5.65 5.37 6.14 5.72 5.73

    SP-6 4.21 5.17 4.57 4.19 4.33

    SP-7 4.08 4.98 4.46 4.08 4.09

    SP-8 2.74 3.77 2.94 2.70 2.69

    SP-9 1.79 2.85 1.90 1.86 1.74

    SP-10 0.79 2.21 0.85 0.94 0.71

    SP-11 1.33 2.27 1.51 1.31 1.28

    SP-12 4.80 6.02 5.18 4.85 4.92

    SP-13 1.21 3.00 1.19 1.06 1.19

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    Fig. 1.Location of the studied site and sectional view of the deltaic deposits of the Nakdong

    River (Modified after Kim (2008)): (a) Korean peninsula, (b) location of the studied site, and (c)

    sectional view of soil layers of the studied site.

    Fig. 2.Variation of soil properties on physical characteristics and compressibility with elevation.

    Fig. 3.Graphical settlement prediction methods: (a) hyperbolic method and (b) Asaoka method.

    Fig. 4. Flowchart of GA procedure.

    Fig. 5.Variation of back-analyzed consolidation parameter through the optimization process at

    SP-6: (a) compression index and (b) horizontal coefficient of consolidation.

    Fig. 6.Variation of back-analyzed consolidation parameter by elapsed time at SP-6: (a)

    compression index and (b) horizontal coefficient of consolidation.

    Fig. 7.Settlement curves by consolidation theory, measurement, and back analysis at SP-3.

    Fig. 8.Settlement prediction by the thickness of consolidation layer.

    Fig. 9.Settlement curve by the GA back-analysis method in the case of modifying a surcharging

    plan at SP-12: (a) original plan and measurement and (b) modified plan and measurement.

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    Fig. 1

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    Fig. 2

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    Fig. 3

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    .

    Fig. 4

    Generate initial population

    Calculate the objective function

    Calculate the fitness value

    Selection

    Reproduction & Mutation

    Calculate the objective function

    Calculate the fitness value

    GEN = 0

    GEN < GENmax

    Best individual

    GEN=GEN+1

    Yes

    No

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    Fig. 5

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    Fig. 6

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    Fig. 7

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    Fig. 8

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    Fig. 9