presented to presented by

FHWA Resilience & Durability to Extreme Weather Pilot Program

One Bay Resilient Communities Working Group

Allison Yeh, AICP Hillsborough MPO

John Villeneuve, AICP Pasco MPO

Rodney Chatman, AICP Pinellas MPO

Roger Roscoe FDOT District 7

Marshall Flynn and Randy DeShazo Tampa Bay RPC

Karen Kiselewski, AICP, CS

April 4, 2019

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Agenda » Project Overview » Modeling Scenarios » System Vulnerability » Criticality Determination » Representative Projects » Adaptation Strategies » Econometric Analyses » Outreach and Coordination » Next Steps

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Overview Purpose

» Provide information and recommendations to ensure the region’s transportation system meets the near and long term functional, economic, and quality of life goals of Tampa Bay’s residents, businesses, and visitors in the face of weather and climate changes.

Infrastructure

Economic Social

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Overview Relationship to the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) » Regional vulnerability assessment of surface

transportation assets focusing on inland flooding, storm surge, and sea level rise

» MPO’s are required to adopt a new LRTP every 5 years (2045 planning horizon)

» Address Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act requirements for MPO long range transportation planning: • Consider projects/strategies to improve the resilience

and reliability of the transportation system; stormwater mitigation

• Consultation with agencies and officials responsible for natural disaster risk reduction

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Overview Sea Level

Rise – 2045 NOAA

Increased Precipitation

Storm Surge

Transportation Network –

2040+ (adopted

network and socio-economic

data

Regional Econometric

Analysis

Develop Adaptation

and Mitigation Strategies

= stakeholder review (local mitigation strategy groups, citizen advisory committees, local coordinating boards, TMA, One Bay, etc.

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Work Plan Climate & Weather

• Obtain Data • Identify Vulnerable Areas • Identify at risk Transportation

Critical Linkages

• Stakeholder Engagement

• Quantitative Analysis of Critical links

Adaptation Strategies

• Econometric Analysis • Adaptation/ Mitigation

Strategies • Include in Decision

Making

Final Report

Fall 2018

Fall 2018 Winter 2019

Winter/ Spring 2019 Summer/Fall 2019

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Modeling Scenarios

» Sea Level Rise – 2045 NOAA • High and Intermediate-Low curves.

» Storm Surge - Current • Categories 1, 3, and 5

» Sea Level Rise plus Surge • Cat 1 High, Cat 1 Int-Low, Cat 3 High, Cat 3 Int-Low

» Precipitation • 9 inches rain in 1 day; 33 inches rain in 3 days

» Transportation – 2040 • Adopted network and socio-economic data

» Econometric – 2045

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Downtown Tampa

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2045 Downtown Tampa Category 3 Storm + High SLR

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System Vulnerability 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Category 1 Storm

Category 1 Storm + Int-Low SLR

Category 1 Storm + High SLR

Category 3 Storm

Category 3 Storm + Int-Low SLR

Category 3 Storm + High SLR

Category 5 Storm

9 Inches Precipitation

33 Inches Precipitation

Impacted Lane Miles by Scenario

Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco

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US 19 and SR 54

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2045 US 19 and SR 54 Category 3 Storm + High SLR

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Incorporating stakeholder input into quantitative

assessment

Weighting facilities/locations

based on stakeholder input

Criticality Determination

Qualitative Assessment

Quantitative Assessment

Supporting Image Sources: Sustainable Convos, Northern Arizona Healthcare

• GIS-based Quantitative Analysis • Context Sensitive Criticality Construct

(Transportation disadvantaged population, social & economic importance)

• Sensitivity, exposure level and adaptive capacity

• Stakeholder and practitioner input • Persistent flooding locations • Leveraging prior planning work

(Current LRTP, hazard mitigation and local mitigation strategies)

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Criticality Factors

Factor Max

Evacuation Route 3 Projected 2040 Traffic volume 3

Proximity or primary route to major economic and social activity centers 3

Projected Population density 3 Transit Corridor 2

Part of adopted land use and/or transportation plans (ex. LRTP, TIP, SIS, National Highway

Freight Network) 2

Projected Employment density 2

Percentage of Zero-Car Households 2

Intermodal Connectivity (Port/Rail connectors) 1 Projected Truck Traffic or Freight Corridor 1

Equity areas (Environmental Justice/Disadvantaged Populations, as identified by the metropolitan planning

organizations)

1

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Representative Projects » Hillsborough

1. Gandy Blvd from 4th St to S Dale Mabry Hwy

2. Big Bend Rd from US-41 to I-75

» Pinellas 3. Gulf Boulevard from Bath

Club Circle to 125th Ave & Tom Stuart Cswy Bridge

4. Roosevelt Boulevard from Ulmerton Road to Gandy Blvd

» Pasco 5. US 19 from S.R.54 to S.R.52 6. S.R.54 from US 19 to

Suncoast Pkwy

1

2 3

4

5

6

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Proposed Strategies

Status: Cross-Check with

Toolkit Options Concern Preferred: First option to

consider if no limitations

Better: Second option to consider if first

option is not appropriate or other

limitations

Good: An additional option that may be

available and deserves

consideration

Hillsborough

1 Gandy Blvd

Low profile at entrance to bridge. Minimal

deviation to inundation potential.

Weakening of base due to

flows, extended inundation due to

low profile

Raise the profile of road near bridge entrances

Increase drainage area to increase movement

of water away from road

Harden road on sides to increase protection

from flow

2 Big Bend Rd

Minimal topography, drainage in place,

open median, treeline on sides

Surge create damage to

surface and base

Increase drainage areas and enhance swales, etc to

divert water

Enhance road surface to better resist surge

and return flow

Harden side of roads with enhanced

shoulders to protect base from erosion

Pinellas

3 Gulf Blvd

Built-up areas on both sides of road, flat topography from

beach to shopping areas

Minimal opportunity to enhance road

itself

Consider natural shoreline options such as beach

enhancement to provide topographic protection

Consider drainage option. This would have

to be consulted with engineers.

4 Roosevelt Blvd

Low profile along road, minimal median

protection, drainage swales in several

places

No protection against surge or

inundation damage

Harden asphalt surface by increasing thickness of

asphalt to reduce possibility of damage

Increase drainage along sides of roads to include

more swales and possibly culverts

Enhance median to provide erosion

protection and protect road base

Pasco

5 US 19

Both sides of road have light commercial development. West

side is open to residential areas.

Very little protection in place. Wide streets and

corridors provide little protection.

Enhance protection on the sides on the sides of roads -

consider raising profile of roads. A complementary

action would be to enhance the natural shoreline.

Harden road on sides to increase protection from

flow

Profile raised at intersections

6 S.R. 54

West end has commercial areas, but large open areas on

both sides. Evidence of road wear on

asphalt

Little protection from inundation and surge in any

area

Enhance diversion in open areas. Consider culverts

and hardening of retaining areas.

Harden medians and sides of roads with

riprap or concrete to create barriers and

diversions

Raise profile at major intersection to resist

inundation and enhance drainage for emergency purposes

Draft

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Adaptation Strategies

» Physical asset adaptations • Design changes

» Natural landscapes • Topographical changes • Vegetation • Wave mitigation

» Water management • Drainage and flood control

Source: http://flseagrant.org

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Adaptation Toolbox

Raise Road Profile

Enhance Drainage

Protect Medians

Shoulders

Enhance Road Surface or Subbase

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Adaptation Toolbox

Sources: • https://hiveminer.com/User/Aaron%20Volkening • https://www.dirtandgravel.psu.edu/sites/default/files/General%20Resources/Technical%20Bulletins/TB_Raising_Road_Profile.pdf • “Design Considerations for Embankment Protection During Road Overtopping Events,” Marr et al, University of Minnesota, MN/RC 2017-21, 2017. • Geotechnical Aspects of Pavements, Publication No. FHWA-NHI-10-009, Federal Highway Administration • http://www.tbo.com/news/business/pyramid-key-to-saving-egmont-key-20140526/ • http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/news/2012/may/23/street-runs-through-it/ • Virginia DCR Stormwater Design Specification No 7 http://vwrrc.vt.edu/swc/NonPBMPSpecsMarch11/VASWMBMPSpec7PERMEABLEPAVEMENT.html • Maccaferri Gabion Mat brocuhure • Restore America’s Estuaries, Living Shorelines – From Barriers to Opportunities,

Hardened Shoulders

Wave Attenuation

Seawalls Revetments

Living Shorelines

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Adaptation Toolbox Minimal

Topography Changes

Available Median for Alteration

Minimal Clearance to the Side of the Road

Coastal or Beach

Exposure

Existing Drainage Swales

Open Access on

Side of Roadway

Residential or

Commercial Properties

Swales or Ditches

X X O O

Retention or Detention Ponds

X X O

Enhanced Road Surface

O O

Enhanced SubSurface

O O

Hardened Shoulders

X O

Raise Profile O X Permeable Pavements

O

Protected or Depressed Medians

O

Revetments and Sea Walls

O

Wave Attenuation

O

Beach and Dune Nourishment O

Vegetation (coastal or inland)

O

O: Preferred Circumstance X: Not Applicable

Draft

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Econometric Analyses

» TranSight module of REMI model

» 2045 horizon year

» Scenarios • 6 County representative projects • Category 3 Storm + High Sea Level Rise • 9 Inches Precipitation

» Economic Impacts • Gross Domestic Product • Personal Income

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Economic Impacts of Projects Pasco 5 Yr GRP

US 19 -$2.49 M

SR 54 -$0.83 M

Pinellas 5 Yr GRP

Gulf Blvd -$4.28 M

SR 54 -$3.33 M

DRAFT All Figures Millions 2018 $

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Economic Impacts of Projects Hillsborough 5 Yr GRP

Gandy -$51.03 M

Big Bend -$7.72 M

DRAFT All Figures Millions 2018 $

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Event Economic Impact Cat3 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Total

Hillsb -$95.44 -$18.62 -$12.11 -$6.95 -$4.05 -$2.62 -$139.79

Pasco -$8.67 -$1.80 -$1.09 -$0.57 -$0.35 -$0.29 -$12.78

Pinellas -$126.94 -$26.50 -$19.38 -$13.06 -$9.18 -$6.87 -$201.93

Tampa Bay -$231.05 -$46.92 -$32.58 -$20.58 -$13.58 -$9.78 -$354.50

9 Inches 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Total

Hillsb -$48.11 -$5.27 -$3.28 -$1.66 -$0.75 -$0.30 -$59.37

Pasco -$2.43 -$0.45 -$0.27 -$0.13 -$0.06 -$0.05 -$3.39

Pinellas -$25.08 -$4.81 -$3.40 -$2.18 -$1.43 -$1.01 -$37.91

Tampa Bay -$75.62 -$10.54 -$6.94 -$3.96 -$2.25 -$1.36 -$100.67

DRAFT All Figures Millions 2018 $

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Travel Forecast Summary

Auto VMT Auto VHT Auto Trips Truck VMT Truck VHT Truck TripsGandy Blvd from 4th St to S Dale Mabry Hwy

-39,028 -1,057 -38 -732 -20 -1

Big Bend Rd from US-41 to I-75 -3,897 106 -3 1 3 0

Gulf Boulevard from Bath Club Circle to 125th Ave & Tom Stuart Cswy Bridge

-3,877 132 -32 0 4 0

Roosevelt Boulevard from Ulmerton Road to Gandy Blvd

-4,070 35 -6 6 1 0

US 19 from S.R.54 to S.R.52 -5,434 30 -79 -23 1 -1

S.R.54 from US 19 to Suncoast Pkwy -3,842 59 -58 -19 1 -2

Category 3 Storm Plus High Sea Level Rise -109,681 -3,077 -6,725 -3,016 -84 -188

9 Inches Precipitation 16,803 3,218 -1,001 -33 105 -27

ScenariosChange (1,000s)

Daily 2045

Overall Changes

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Integration into LRTPs

» Regional and per-county representative projects

» Cost estimates for planning purposes • Projects for

investment considerations

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Outreach

One Bay Resilient Communities Working

Group Meetings

MPO Committees for 3 MPOS • Citizen Advisory Committee • Technical Advisory Committee • Transportation Disadvantaged

Coordinating Boards

Hillsborough MPO Policy Committee

Tampa Bay Management Area

Meeting

Local Mitigation Strategy Working Group (LMSWG) Meetings • Hillsborough • Pinellas • Pasco

National Sustainability Summit (Tampa, FL) • Round table discussion (April

18, 2019)

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Coordination

Resiliency & Durability to

Extreme Weather Pilot

Project

LMSWG staff from each

county

Public Works staff from

each county

FDOT D7 Community Liaison and

Drainage Engineer

FDOT D7 Gandy Blvd

PD& E Manager

University of South Florida Department

of Urban Planning

University of South Florida

School of Community

Design

Hillsborough County Perils of Flood Act

Matrix of Impacts Initiative

Pinellas County

Restore Act Vulnerability Assessment

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Next Steps

» Finalize Adaptation Strategies

» Finalize Economic Analyses

» Projects for LRTPs

» Documentation

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Category 3 on Steroids: 2045