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Valuation Statistics - Vinamilk Vinamilk - Range of Valuation Multiples / Premiums Vinamilk - Implied Per Share Value Range
25th 75th Applicable
Minimum Pecentile Median Pecentile Maximum Vinamilk Minimum
Methodology Name Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple Figure Multiple
Public Company Comparables:
Trailing EV / Revenue: 0.5 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 2.0 x 7.3 x 28,421,157 29-Oct-65
2013E EV / Revenue: 0.5 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.7 x 4.3 x 32,854,724 26,663
Trailing EV / EBITDA: 9.0 x 15.0 x 20.9 x 22.0 x 37.2 x 7,109,042 82,462
2013E EV / EBITDA: 8.2 x 11.8 x 15.8 x 17.5 x 22.7 x 7,316,892 78,193
Trailing P/E: 18.2 x 24.6 x 28.9 x 35.9 x 56.6 x 6,362,233 139,000
2013E P/E 15.5 x 20.1 x 25.6 x 31.8 x 46.0 x 6,832,177 118,441
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis:
14.3%-18.3% Discount Rate, 5.0-7.0x Terminal Multiple: 20-May-29
Units: VND million
Valuation Summary
Valuation Date: 13/09/2013 Unit: 1,000,000
Company Name: Vinamilk Currency: VND
Share Price: 139,000 USD /VND 21,500
Basic Shares Outstanding: 833,955,796
Basic Equity Value (VNDm) 115,919,856
Less: Cash & equivalent (4,912,485)
Plus: Debt -
Plus: Minorities Interest -
Enterprise Value 111,007,370
Valuation Multiples Historical Forecast
2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
EV / Revenue: 5.13 4.18 3.38 2.80 2.31 1.93 1.60
EV / EBIT: 23.46 16.47 13.90 11.24 9.21 7.65 6.35
EV / EBITDA: 25.72 17.89 15.17 12.39 10.06 8.28 6.80
Equity Value / FCF: 85.97 33.57 27.94 14.33 11.99 9.16 7.74
P / E: 27.48 19.92 16.97 13.76 10.99 8.89 7.19
P / BV: 9.29 7.48 6.06 4.79 3.71 2.87 2.21
Vinamilk - Implied Per Share Value Range
25th 75th
Pecentile Median Pecentile Maximum
Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple
Net Debt (VND mn) (4,912,485)
12-Mar-33 9-Aug-36 15-Jul-02 25-Jan-00 Shares Outstanding (mn) 834
47,648 50,416 71,206 174,951
133,598 183,653 193,585 323,001
109,172 144,656 159,747 204,904
187,755 220,360 273,691 431,441
153,576 195,367 242,361 350,905
16-Nov-55 29-Apr-85 1-Feb-18 20-Jul-54
VNM Statistics
Min.
14.3%-18.3% Discount Rate, 5.0-7.0x Terminal Multiple: 120,306
2013E P/E 118,441
Trailing P/E: 139,000
2013E EV / EBITDA: 78,193
Trailing EV / EBITDA: 82,462
2013E EV / Revenue: 26,663
Trailing EV / Revenue: 24,044
- 50,000 100,000
14.3%-18.3% Discount Rate, 5.0-7.0x Terminal Multiple:
2013E P/E
Trailing P/E:
2013E EV / EBITDA:
Trailing EV / EBITDA:
2013E EV / Revenue:
Trailing EV / Revenue:
Public Comparables Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
25th Median 75th Max Min Point
129,983 140,739 152,704 166,022 120,306
153,576 195,367 242,361 350,905 118,441
187,755 220,360 273,691 431,441 139,000
109,172 144,656 159,747 204,904 78,193
133,598 183,653 193,585 323,001 82,462
47,648 50,416 71,206 174,951 26,663
48,651 49,897 73,976 255,697 24,044
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
Min to 25th
25th to Median
Median to 75th
75th to Max
Share Price (9/20/13)VND 139,000
25 Point Med Point 75 Point Max Point
9,677 10,756 11,965 13,318
35,135 41,791 46,993 108,544
48,755 32,605 53,331 157,750
30,979 35,484 15,090 45,157
51,136 50,055 9,932 129,416
20,985 2,768 20,790 103,745
24,607 1,246 24,080 181,721
Min to 25th
25th to Median
Median to 75th
75th to Max
(9/20/13)
Vinamilk Income Statement
Units: VND million, except per share data Historical
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A
Net Revenue 5,638,784 6,619,102 6,537,964 8,208,982
COGS 4,379,796 5,012,632 4,836,283 5,610,969
Gross profit 1,258,988 1,606,470 1,701,681 2,598,013
Selling expenses 654,102 899,396 864,363 1,052,308
G & A expenses 80,438 112,888 204,192 297,804
EBITDA 524,448 594,186 633,126 1,247,901
Deprication & Amortization
Operating Profit
Financial income 55,373 74,253 227,327 190,860
Interest income
Investment income
Other financial income
Financial expense 19,988 40,002 25,862 197,621
Interest expense 10,030 21,192 11,667 26,971
Change in provision for investment
Other financial expense
Net other income 42,767 106,032 120,790 130,173
Earning before tax 602,600 734,469 955,381 1,371,313
Income tax paid - - - 161,874
Deffered tax 2,884 (2,884) 8,017 39,259
Net income 605,484 731,585 963,398 1,248,698
Minority Interest - - (50) (1,422)
Net income attributable to Equity Shareholders 605,484 731,585 963,448 1,250,120
EPS 3,816 3,801 5,607 7,132
Number of share adjusted 159 159 172 175
EPS adjusted 834 1,006 1,225 1,559
Number of share adjusted for bonus issuance 726 728 786 802
EPS Growth 21% 22% 27%
Allocation of D&A
COGS
Selling expense
G&A expense
Other income
Gain/Loss from fixed asset disposals
Income from disposals
Remaining cost of assets
Other income/expense
OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS
Revenue Growth 17.4% -1.2% 25.6%
Gross margin 22.3% 24.3% 26.0% 31.6%
Selling expense (% revenue) 11.6% 13.6% 13.2% 12.8%
Admin expense (% revenue) 1.4% 1.7% 3.1% 3.6%
Operating margin 9.3% 9.0% 9.7% 15.2%
EBITDA Margin
Other financial income (% revenue) 1.0% 1.1% 3.5% 2.3%
Other financial expense (% revenue) 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 2.4%
Net Other income excl disposal (% revenue) 1% 2% 1.8% 1.6%
Effective tax rate 0% 0% 1% 15%
Net margin % 10.7% 11.1% 14.7% 15.2%
Net margin Growth 21% 32% 30%
Effective cash interest rate
Investment yield
Debt interest rate
DETAILED SALES FORECAST
VND million
Segment 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A
Condensed milk
Revenue 1,690,000 2,332,000 2,380,605
Growth 38.0% 2.1%
In which: Price growth
In which: Volume growth
% Market share
% Total Revenue 25.5% 35.7% 29.0%
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
Liquid milk
Revenue 1,659,000 1,736,000 2,216,425
Growth 4.6% 27.7%
In which: Price growth
In which: Volume growth
% Market share
% Total Revenue 25.1% 26.6% 27.0%
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
Powdered milk
Revenue 2,191,000 1,584,000 2,380,605
Growth -27.7% 50.3%
In which: Price growth
In which: Volume growth
% Market share
% Total Revenue 33.1% 24.2% 29.0%
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
Yoghurt
Revenue 634,000 698,000 985,078
Growth 10.1% 41.1%
In which: Price growth
In which: Volume growth
% Market share
% Total Revenue 9.6% 10.7% 12.0%
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
Beverages
Revenue 445,102 187,964 246,269
Growth -57.8% 31.0%
In which: Price growth
In which: Volume growth
% Market share
% Total Revenue 6.7% 2.9% 3.0%
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
Exports
Revenue
Powder revenue
Liquid & condensed revenue
Growth
In which: Price growth
In which: Volume growth
% Market share
% Total Revenue
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
Total
Revenue 6,619,102 6,537,964 8,208,982
Growth -1.2% 25.6%
% Total Revenue
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin %
DETAILED WORKING
Market
Average milk consumption per capital (liter) 9
CAGR of consumption per capita
Population growth (%)
Estimated milk consumtion growth
Domestic production volume (ton) 110,000
Liquid milk (000' litres)
Powdered milk (ton)
Total volume consumed (by units)
Condensed milk ('000 cans)
Liquid milk (000' litres)
Powdered milk (ton)
Yoghurt (000' litres)
Drinking yoghurt (000' litres)
VINAMILK DATA
Average Selling price (VNDm/ton)
Average volume sold (ton)
Condensed milk
Liquid milk (litre)
Powdered milk
Yoghurt
Beverages
Export - powder
Export - liquid
Average market share (%) 37%
Condensed milk 79%
Liquid milk 35%
Powdered milk 14%
Yoghurt 60%
Beverages
Export - powder
Production capacity
Designed capacity (ton) 504,000
Condensed milk ('000 cannes) 260,000
Liquid milk ('000 lit) 237,000
Powdered milk (ton) 18,000
Yoghurt ('000 lit) 56,000
Beverages
Selling price growth
Condensed milk
Liquid milk
Powdered milk
Yoghurt
Beverages
Export - powder
Volume growth
Condensed milk
Liquid milk
Powdered milk
Yoghurt
Beverages
Export - powder
PRICE FORECAST
- Price Increase
Period
06-12
CAGR
- GDP per capita
Year
4-Jul-05
12-Jul-05
CAGR
- Price Increase Forecast
Liquild milk
Yoghurt
Condensed milk
Powdered milk
- VNM wants to win market share thanks to its outstanding capacity
- Market Segmentation: Increasing Mid-end customers.
- Price Increase grows in line with GDP per capita of mid-end customers.
CONDENSED MILK
- Current market share: 80%.
- VNM restructures its plants into separate manufacturing divisions: Liquild milk, yoghurt; Condensed milk; Powder Milk
and it aims to win market share of liquid milk & Powdered milk.
- Condensed milk is forecasted to grow thanks to Price Increase, not capacity
Condensed Milk
LIQUID MILK
- National-wide raw fresh milk CAGR 2009-2012: 11.15% (Vietnam Husbandry Department)
- Currently, VNM buys 40% total national raw fresh milk each year.
and imports 60% rest for production.
Total raw fresh milk input is equal to total suppy from domestic farmers.
(Tons)
Total Domestic Supply
Total VNM Demand
Growth
Domestic supply for VNM
% Share
Import
% Share
- VNM will maintain the proportion of raw fresh milk 40:60 between domestic supply & import.
- Total Raw fresh milk demand for production will grow at 12% CAGR (2013-2017)
(slightly higher than the period 09-12), in line with liquild milk consumpsion per capita
for the period 2012-2015
Year
4-Jul-05
7-Jul-05
12-Jul-05
CAGR '12-15
CAGR '12-20
Liquild Milk
POWDERED MILK
- Current VNM's powdered milk capacity:
, equal to total domestic demand.
- VNM wants to win additional 5-10% market share , however, due to the high demand for foreign powdered milk brands
, and it takes time to change the consumer's taste, we only forecast VNM will gain 1.5% current market share per year.
- 2012 capacity: 13,500 tons. This year, from Q2, VNM has launched its new powdered milk plant with capacity 54,000 tons,
(4x last year capacity).
(tons)
VNM's Domestic volume
Growth
Domestic Powdered Milk's
Revenue Growth
- If VNM fully utilizes 100% of its capacity in 2017
Export
VNM's Export volume
Growth
Export Powdered Milk's Revenue Growth
Utilization
Total capacity used in year (ton)
Growth
Utilization (New Factory)
Utilization (Total)
- '13-17 CAGR Powdered Milk Capacity outgrows industry (6-8%) due to the outstanding supply
YOGHURT
Yoghurt
*Equal liquild milk's growth
BEVERAGES
Beverages
EXPORTS
VNDm
Powdered milk revenue
Growth
Others revenue
Growth
Total revenue
Growth
COSTS ANALYSIS
Circular Break? 2-Jan-00 1-Jan-00
2-Jan-00
Historical Projected
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
35% 32%
10,613,771 15,752,866 21,627,429 26,561,574 32,854,724 39,627,204 48,017,585
6,735,062 10,350,627 14,701,505 17,036,272 21,422,616 25,593,149 30,925,391
3,878,709 5,402,239 6,925,924 9,525,303 11,432,108 14,034,055 17,092,194
1,245,476 1,406,696 1,786,087 2,320,136 2,869,838 3,461,410 4,194,304
292,942 358,685 408,470 465,106 575,302 693,892 840,811
2,340,291 3,636,858 4,731,367 6,740,060 7,986,967 9,878,753 12,057,078
289,533 414,590 534,303 670,075 921,434 1,025,998
3,347,325 4,316,777 6,205,757 7,316,892 8,957,319 11,031,080
439,936 448,296 671,419 487,765 643,289 879,279 1,287,668
196,900 366,519 250,232 293,651 474,809 797,777
78,359 123,566 112,677 86,039 86,535 104,637
173,037 181,334 124,856 263,599 317,936 385,253
184,828 153,199 246,430 51,171 205,550 265,308 320,410
6,253 6,172 13,933 3,115 - - -
(3,674) 42,357 (77,210) (47,149) (39,482) (48,914)
150,701 190,140 125,266 252,699 304,789 369,323
135,959 608,786 237,226 287,317 380,962 459,491 556,781
2,731,358 4,251,207 4,978,992 6,929,668 8,135,593 10,030,782 12,555,120
361,536 645,059 778,589 1,137,572 1,303,417 1,607,048 2,011,476
6,246 9,344 (17,778) (27,359)
2,376,067 3,615,493 4,218,182 5,819,455 6,832,177 8,423,734 10,543,644
375 (693) - - - - -
2,375,693 3,616,186 4,218,182 5,819,455 6,832,177 8,423,734 10,543,644
17%
6,769 10,251 7,717 6,981
351 353 547 834 834 834 834
2,959 4,481 5,060 6,981 8,192 10,101 12,643
803 807 834 834 834 834 834
90% 51% 13% 38% 17% 23% 25%
289,533 414,590 534,303 670,075 921,434 1,025,998
228,581 337,801 448,559 562,542 773,563 861,347
31,490 25,828 25,653 32,172 44,241 49,261
29,462 50,962 60,091 75,361 103,630 115,390
352,802 (22,449) (20,674)
701,993 58,616 38,250
349,191 81,065 58,924
255,983 259,675 307,991
29.3% 48.4% 37.3% 22.8% 23.7% 20.6% 21.2%
36.5% 34.3% 32.0% 35.9% 33.1% 33.5% 33.8%
11.7% 8.9% 8.3% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%
2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
22.0% 23.1% 21.9% 25.4% 24.3% 24.9% 25.1%
21.2% 20.0% 23.4% 22.3% 22.6% 23.0%
4.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
1.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
13% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16%
22.4% 23.0% 19.5% 21.9% 20.8% 21.3% 22.0%
90% 52% 17% 38% 17% 23% 25%
8% 13% 6% 6% 6% 6%
4% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7%
2% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10%
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
2,388,098 3,100,363 3,658,794 3,988,086 4,386,895 4,825,584 5,308,142
0.3% 29.8% 18.0% 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
80.0% 80% 80% 80%
22.5% 19.9% 16.9% 15.0% 13.4% 12.2% 11.1%
2,331,473 2,788,004 2,911,303 3,281,398 3,609,538 3,970,492
768,890 870,790 1,076,783 1,105,496 1,216,046 1,337,650
24.8% 23.8% 27.0% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2%
3,268,405 5,180,166 7,171,596 9,024,736 11,118,475 13,697,961 16,875,888
47.5% 58.5% 38.4% 25.8% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
52.0% 52% 51% 51%
30.8% 33.3% 33.2% 34.0% 33.8% 34.6% 35.1%
3,527,693 4,959,035 5,866,078 7,227,009 8,903,675 10,969,327
1,652,473 2,212,561 3,158,658 3,891,466 4,794,286 5,906,561
31.9% 30.9% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
market share tang 1%, market share hien tai la 25%. Market growth la 20% -> company growth la 21%
1,889,251 2,974,937 3,743,242 4,184,792 5,736,340 7,535,280 9,869,969
-20.6% 57.5% 25.8% 11.8% 37.1% 31.4% 31.0%
FORECAST
10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
24.6% 19.4% 19.1%
24.5% 25.0% 27% 28% 30%
17.8% 19.1% 17.3% 15.8% 17.5% 19.0% 20.6%
1,850,411 2,423,408 2,510,875 3,574,521 4,695,506 6,150,335
1,124,526 1,319,834 1,673,917 2,161,818 2,839,774 3,719,633
37.8% 35.3% 40.0% 37.7% 37.7% 37.7%
1,624,756 1,763,012 3,057,508 4,005,335 4,934,573 6,079,394 7,489,813
64.9% 8.5% 73.4% 31.0% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
90% 90% 90%
15.3% 11.3% 14.1% 15.1% 15.0% 15.3% 15.6%
902,662 1,898,604 2,283,041 2,960,744 3,647,636 4,493,888
860,350 1,158,904 1,722,294 1,973,829 2,431,757 2,995,925
48.8% 37.9% 43.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
275,746 902,303 1,223,424 1,646,202 1,975,442 2,370,531 2,844,637
12.0% 227.2% 35.6% 34.6% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2.6% 5.8% 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 5.9%
461,979 746,210 974,970 1,185,265 1,422,319 1,706,782
440,324 477,214 671,232 790,177 948,212 1,137,855
48.8% 39.0% 40.8% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
3,354,000.00 71%
1,167,515 1,656,758 2,772,865 3,712,423 4,703,000 5,118,454 5,629,136
1,912,690 3,680,609
1,799,733 1,022,391
67.4% 33.9% 30.1% 8.8% 10.0%
5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
92.4% -1.9% -1.9%
11.0% 10.6% 12.8% 14.0% 14.3% 12.9% 11.7%
1,329,664 2,224,045 2,938,063 3,756,221 4,088,038 4,495,913
327,094 548,820 774,360 946,779 1,030,416 1,133,223
19.7% 19.8% 20.9% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1%
10,613,771 15,577,539 21,627,429 26,561,574 32,854,724 39,627,204 48,017,585
29.3% 46.8% 38.8% 22.8% 23.7% 20.6% 21.2%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
10,403,882 15,039,306 17,484,330 21,985,158 26,366,712 31,786,738
5,173,657 6,588,123 9,077,244 10,869,566 13,260,491 16,230,847
33.2% 30.5% 34.2% 33.1% 33.5% 33.8%
Price Increase Volume Increase
per year per year (%)
Condensed Milk 10% 0%
Liquid Milk 10% 12%
Powdered Milk Domestic 10% 19%
Yoghurt 10% 12%
Beverages 20% 0%
Exports 5% -2%
ton 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
Domestic Capacity 18,050 22,493 26,861 31,985
Growth 25% 19% 19%
Revenue 37.1% 31.4% 31.0%
- If VNM utilizes maximum its capacity to 2017, its capacity's growth will be 15% for the period '13-17:
ton 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
VNM's Export Capacity 15,590 30,000 29,416 28,842
Growth -2% -2%
Export Powdered Milk'sRevenue Growth 7.9% 7.9%
Unitilization rate 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
Capacity 33,640 52,493 56,276 60,827
Growth 56.0% 7.2% 8.1%
Utilization rate (Total) 78% 83% 90%
- 13-17 CAGR Powdered Milk Capacity outgrows industry (7%) due to the outstanding supply
1,510
2,012 5-Jul-05 6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05
15-Jan-00 21-Jan-00
12% 12% 12%
1.03% 1.03% 1.03%
13.02% 13.02% 13.02%
660,000
80,000
Forecast
KEY DRIVERS - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Forecast
377,000
480,000 789,063 891,809 1,007,932 1,139,177
47,000 75,100 84,879 95,931 108,422
86,000
356,080 410,313 459,551 514,697 576,460
18,050 22,493 26,861 31,985
15,590 30,000 29,416 28,842
80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
50% 52% 52% 51% 51%
25% 25% 27% 28% 30%
90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
677,150
400,000 800,000 800,000 800,000
13,500 67,500 67,500 67,500
36,000
10% 10% 10%
10% 10% 10%
10% 10% 10%
10% 10% 10%
20% 20% 20%
5% 5% 5%
0% 0% 0%
12% 12% 12%
25% 19% 19%
12% 12% 12%
0% 0% 0%
92% -2% -2%
Powderer Milk Liquild Milk
30-Jan-00 1-Jan-00
76.3% 10.8%
Disposable
Income
1,555
3,215
9.5%
2013-2017
10%
10%
10%
10%
- VNM restructures its plants into separate manufacturing divisions: Liquild milk, yoghurt; Condensed milk; Powder Milk
Revenue CAGR
10%
4-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05 8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05
345,701 382,000 427,840 479,181 536,682 601,084 673,215
410,313 459,551 514,697 576,460 645,635 723,112
10.50% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
161,591 183,820 205,879 230,584 258,254 289,245
42% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
275,730 308,818 345,876 387,381 433,867
60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Forecast
Bo sua
Liquild milk
Consumpsion
per capita
(liters)
15
21
27
11.9%
5.2%
Revenue CARG
23.2%
In which
Current factory New factory
67,500 (tons) 13,500 54,000
- VNM wants to win additional 5-10% market share , however, due to the high demand for foreign powdered milk brands
, and it takes time to change the consumer's taste, we only forecast VNM will gain 1.5% current market share per year.
- 2012 capacity: 13,500 tons. This year, from Q2, VNM has launched its new powdered milk plant with capacity 54,000 tons,
4-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05 8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05
18,050 22,493 26,861 31,985 35,708 39,770
25% 19% 19% 12% 11%
37.1% 31.4% 31.0% 22.8% 22.5%
4-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05 8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05
15,590 30,000 29,416 28,842 28,280 27,730
92% -2% -2% -2% -2%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
4-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05 8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05
33,640 52,493 56,276 60,827 63,988 67,500
56.0% 7.2% 8.1% 5.2% 5.5%
72% 79% 88% 93% 100%
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
249% 78% 83% 90% 95% 100%
Revenue CARG
23.2%
Revenue CARG
20.0%
7-May-10
4-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05 8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05
- 3,780,000 3,891,673 4,006,645 4,125,014 4,246,880
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
1,050,000 1,365,000 1,774,500 2,306,850 2,998,905
30% 30% 30% 30%
3,712,423 4,830,000 5,256,673 5,781,145 6,431,864 7,245,785
30% 9% 10% 11% 13%
Forecast
Yes
No
Projected
2016E 2017E 1H 2012A 1H 2013A Trailing IS
57,654,501 69,407,053 12,887,269 14,746,852 28,421,157
37,106,275 44,652,441 8,458,758 8,885,104 17,462,617
20,548,226 24,754,612 4,428,511 5,861,748 10,958,540
5,036,083 6,062,660 1,030,988 1,434,530 2,723,678
1,009,558 1,215,351 218,223 264,395 511,278
14,502,584 17,476,601 3,179,300 4,162,823 7,723,584
1,089,783 1,153,585 249,082 329,321 614,542
13,412,802 16,323,015 2,930,218 3,833,502 7,109,042
1,832,638 2,541,345 307,135 251,454 432,083
1,243,906 1,832,784 146,848 160,940 264,323
126,160 151,696 94,039 43,247 61,884
462,572 556,865 66,247 47,267 105,876
387,264 465,325 679 43,723 94,215
- - 3,024 - 91
(56,181) (68,514) (54,943) 13,445 (8,822)
443,445 533,839 52,597 30,278 102,947
668,524 804,799 133,059 73,241 227,499
15,526,700 19,203,835 3,369,732 4,114,473 7,674,409
2,487,558 3,076,677 628,128 765,650 1,275,093
34,515 24,791 (37,083)
13,039,142 16,127,158 2,776,119 3,373,615 6,362,233
- - - - -
13,039,142 16,127,158 2,776,119 3,373,615 6,362,233
3,330 4,047
834 834 834 834 834
15,635 19,338 3,329 4,045 7,629
834 834
24% 24% 22%
1,089,783 1,153,585 249,082 329,321 614,542
914,895 968,459 207,254 283,239 524,544
52,323 55,387 12,976 12,963 25,640
122,564 129,740 28,852 33,120 64,359
20.1% 20.4% 14.4%
34.1% 34.3% 34.4% 39.7% 38.6%
8.7% 8.7% 8.0% 9.7% 9.6%
1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%
25.2% 25.2% 24.7% 28.2% 27.2%
23.3% 23.5% 22.7% 26.0% 25.0%
0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5%
0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8%
16% 16% 19% 19% 17%
22.6% 23.2% 21.5% 22.9% 22.4%
24% 24% 22%
6% 6%
7% 7%
10% 10%
2016E 2017E Assumptions
CAGR
5,838,957 6,422,852 10.0%
10.0% 10.0% (2) Condensed milk revenue growth thanks to price growth CARG 9%-10% per year (2013-2017).
10.0% 10.0% Nhom 1; tang deu 9% moi nam, do gia tang 9%
0.0% 0.0% Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, theo lam phat 7%
80% 80% Comment: tot khi tinh den kha nang bao hoa cua thi truong & thi phan hien tai (80%) kho co the tang them duoc.Thuong thi gia se tang cao hon lam phat mot chut, nen gia tang khoang 9-10% se hop ly hon 7%
10.1% 9.3%
4,367,541 4,804,295
1,471,415 1,618,557
25.2% 25.2% - Gross margin = Average GM '10-12
CAGR
20,791,094 25,614,628 23.2% 258 413 578
23.2% 23.2% (3) Liquid milk will grow at 23.2% per year.
10.0% 10.0% Nhom 1: gia tang 9%, san luong: thi truong sua nuoc se tang 12% moi nam den 2015. tang 5% tu 2016 den 2017. Thi phan khong doi.
12.0% 12.0% Volume co the hap thu duoc.
53% 56% Comment: chua tinh den tang truong dan so. Co tinh den kha nang hap thu cua nha may: tot
36.1% 36.9% Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, tang tu 215 len 400 trong 2 nam (2013: 8 thang dau nam 215 trieu lit, 4 thang cuoi dat 400 tr lit, 2014: full capacity 400 trieu lit), 2015-2017: tu 400 trieu lit len 800 trieu lit
13,514,211 16,649,508 Comment: co tinh den toc do tang capacity khi tinh revenue: Tot. Can xem ve kha nang hap thu capacity tang them nay. Giai doan 2 cua nha may can tinh den thoi gian xay dung (2-3 nam). Check lai so lieu ve capacity hien tai: 215 trieu hay 400 trieu lit?
7,276,883 8,965,120
35.0% 35.0% - Gross margin may improve y-o-y thanks to economy of scale & VNM can transfer selling price
market share tang 1%, market share hien tai la 25%. Market growth la 20% -> company growth la 21%to customers thanks to an increasing demand.
CAGR
12,120,691 14,849,813 28.8%
22.8% 22.5% (4) Powdered milk consumption grows at 28.8% for the period 2013-2017
FORECAST
10.0% 10.0% Nhom 1: gia tang 9%, ve tong gia tri (value) cua tang khoang 20%, bang voi toc do tang cua thi truong.
11.6% 11.4% Comment: chua tinh den tang truong ve capacity cua nha may moi?
31% 33% Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, nha may moi (54k) hoat dong tu Thang 4/2013, moi nam tang 13k tan (bang voi cong suat hien tai). Trong 4 nam tang gap 5 lan => CAGR = 50%. Nam dau tang 33.3 (hoat dong 4 thang), nam cuoi tang 66.6% con lai.
21.0% 21.4% Comment: can xem ve kha nang hap thu capacity tang them nay. Neu tinh tang truong nay la cua ca local & export, co the dat duoc volume nhu vay (san luong thua e xuat khau het).
7,552,842 9,253,457
4,567,849 5,596,356
37.7% 37.7% - Gross margin = Average GM '10-12. VNM wants to win market share thanks to its outstanding
capacity & slightly improves its selling price modest compared to its rivals.
CAGR
9,227,449 11,368,218 23.2%
23.2% 23.2% (5) Yoghurt will grow at 23.2% for the period 2013-2017
10.0% 10.0%
12.0% 12.0%
90% 90%
16.0% 16.4%
5,536,470 6,820,931
3,690,980 4,547,287
40.0% 40.0% - Gross margin maintains stable @ 40% due to saturated market & stable demand for the market
leader.
CAGR
3,413,564 4,096,277 20.0%
20.0% 20.0% (6) Beverages grows at 20% for the period 2013-2017
20.0% 20.0%
0.0% 0.0%
5.9% 5.9%
2,048,139 2,457,766
1,365,426 1,638,511
40.0% 40.0% - Gross margin is stable thanks to the growing market.
CAGR
6,262,745 7,055,265 13.7%
11.3% 12.7% (7]) Exports grows at 14.3% for the period 2013-2017
5.0% 5.0%
-1.9% -1.9%
10.9% 10.2%
5,001,968 5,634,942
1,260,777 1,420,322
20.1% 20.1% - Gross margin is stable, not much changed.
CAGR
57,654,501 69,407,053 21.2%
20.1% 20.4% - Revenue CAGR 2013-2017 @ 21.2%
100.0% 100.0% : higher than CEO's guide (18.3%)
38,021,170 45,620,900
19,633,330 23,786,153 33.7% - Average GM is 33,7%, slightly higher than the trend in the past and the company's plan, in range of 30-32%.
34.1% 34.3%
Sales Growth
10.0%
23.2%
31.4%
23.2%
20.0%
3.0%
2016E 2017E CAGR
35,708 39,770 17.1%
12% 11%
22.8% 22.5%
- If VNM utilizes maximum its capacity to 2017, its capacity's growth will be 15% for the period '13-17:
2016E 2017E CAGR
28,280 27,730 12.2%
-2% -2%
7.9% 7.9%
2016E 2017E CAGR
63,988 67,500 14.9%
5.2% 5.5%
95% 100%
- 13-17 CAGR Powdered Milk Capacity outgrows industry (7%) due to the outstanding supply
8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05 ###### 11-Jul-05 12-Jul-05
27-Jan-00
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03%
6.24% 6.24% 6.24% 6.24% 6.24%
Forecast
KEY DRIVERS - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Forecast
1,210,237 1,285,729
115,186 122,371
645,635 723,112
35,708 39,770
28,280 27,730
80% 80%
53% 56%
31% 33%
90% 90%
800,000 800,000
67,500 67,500
10% 10%
10% 10%
10% 10%
10% 10%
20% 20%
5% 5%
0% 0%
12% 12%
12% 11%
12% 12%
0% 0%
-2% -2%
CAGR
17.1%
CAGR
12.2%
CAGR
14.9%
CAGR
3.0%
(2) Condensed milk revenue growth thanks to price growth CARG 9%-10% per year (2013-2017).
Comment: tot khi tinh den kha nang bao hoa cua thi truong & thi phan hien tai (80%) kho co the tang them duoc.Thuong thi gia se tang cao hon lam phat mot chut, nen gia tang khoang 9-10% se hop ly hon 7%
694 798
Nhom 1: gia tang 9%, san luong: thi truong sua nuoc se tang 12% moi nam den 2015. tang 5% tu 2016 den 2017. Thi phan khong doi.
Comment: chua tinh den tang truong dan so. Co tinh den kha nang hap thu cua nha may: tot
Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, tang tu 215 len 400 trong 2 nam (2013: 8 thang dau nam 215 trieu lit, 4 thang cuoi dat 400 tr lit, 2014: full capacity 400 trieu lit), 2015-2017: tu 400 trieu lit len 800 trieu lit
Comment: co tinh den toc do tang capacity khi tinh revenue: Tot. Can xem ve kha nang hap thu capacity tang them nay. Giai doan 2 cua nha may can tinh den thoi gian xay dung (2-3 nam). Check lai so lieu ve capacity hien tai: 215 trieu hay 400 trieu lit?
- Gross margin may improve y-o-y thanks to economy of scale & VNM can transfer selling price
(4) Powdered milk consumption grows at 28.8% for the period 2013-2017
Nhom 1: gia tang 9%, ve tong gia tri (value) cua tang khoang 20%, bang voi toc do tang cua thi truong.
Comment: chua tinh den tang truong ve capacity cua nha may moi?
Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, nha may moi (54k) hoat dong tu Thang 4/2013, moi nam tang 13k tan (bang voi cong suat hien tai). Trong 4 nam tang gap 5 lan => CAGR = 50%. Nam dau tang 33.3 (hoat dong 4 thang), nam cuoi tang 66.6% con lai.
Comment: can xem ve kha nang hap thu capacity tang them nay. Neu tinh tang truong nay la cua ca local & export, co the dat duoc volume nhu vay (san luong thua e xuat khau het).
- Gross margin = Average GM '10-12. VNM wants to win market share thanks to its outstanding
capacity & slightly improves its selling price modest compared to its rivals.
- Gross margin maintains stable @ 40% due to saturated market & stable demand for the market
- Average GM is 33,7%, slightly higher than the trend in the past and the company's plan, in range of 30-32%.
Comment: tot khi tinh den kha nang bao hoa cua thi truong & thi phan hien tai (80%) kho co the tang them duoc.Thuong thi gia se tang cao hon lam phat mot chut, nen gia tang khoang 9-10% se hop ly hon 7%
Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, tang tu 215 len 400 trong 2 nam (2013: 8 thang dau nam 215 trieu lit, 4 thang cuoi dat 400 tr lit, 2014: full capacity 400 trieu lit), 2015-2017: tu 400 trieu lit len 800 trieu lit
Comment: co tinh den toc do tang capacity khi tinh revenue: Tot. Can xem ve kha nang hap thu capacity tang them nay. Giai doan 2 cua nha may can tinh den thoi gian xay dung (2-3 nam). Check lai so lieu ve capacity hien tai: 215 trieu hay 400 trieu lit?
Nhom 2: gia tang 7%, nha may moi (54k) hoat dong tu Thang 4/2013, moi nam tang 13k tan (bang voi cong suat hien tai). Trong 4 nam tang gap 5 lan => CAGR = 50%. Nam dau tang 33.3 (hoat dong 4 thang), nam cuoi tang 66.6% con lai.
Comment: can xem ve kha nang hap thu capacity tang them nay. Neu tinh tang truong nay la cua ca local & export, co the dat duoc volume nhu vay (san luong thua e xuat khau het).
Vinamilk Balance Sheet
Units: VND million, except per share data Historical
2005A 2006A 2007A
Current asset
Cash and Cash Equivalents 500,312 156,895 117,819
Short term investment (Excl bank deposits) 22,800 306,730 654,485
Provision for ST investment
Account receivables 380,232 391,233 504,483
Provision for receivables
Advance to suppliers
Inventories 1,081,501 965,826 1,675,164
Provision for Inventory deduction
ST prepayment
Other current assets 421,632 175,707 225,776
Total current assets 2,406,477 1,996,391 3,177,727
Long term assets
Long term investment 609,960 422,771 401,018
Provision for LT Investment
Tangible Fixed Assets 558,790 746,661 1,022,646
Historical price 1,285,280 1,573,284 1,963,835
Accum depreciation (726,490) (826,623) (941,189)
Intangible Fixed Assets 9,264 9,141 20,715
Historical price 21,003 21,504 38,771
Accum Amortization (11,739) (12,363) (18,056)
Financial Leased Assets
Historical price
Accum Amortization
Property Invesment - - -
Historical price
Accum Amortization
Construction in progress 189,319 316,178 598,309
Goodwill
LT prepayment
Deferred tax assets
Other long-term assets 124,126 118,261 204,702
Total long term assets 1,491,459 1,613,012 2,247,390
Total assets 3,897,936 3,609,403 5,425,117
Current liabilities
Short term debt - - 9,963
Account payable 260,885 436,869 621,376
Deferred revenue
Tax payable
Accrued expenses
Bonus funds
Other current liabilities 1,318,548 348,656 393,640
Total current liabilities 1,579,433 785,525 1,024,979
Long term liabilties
Long term debt 10,410 42,345 32,381
Other long term liabilities 153,381 111,621 107,492
Total long term liabiltities 163,791 153,966 139,873
Total liabilities 1,743,224 939,491 1,164,852
Shareholder equity
Owner investment capital 1,590,000 1,590,000 1,752,757
Share capital surplus 54,217 54,217 1,064,948
Difference in currency - - -
Retained earnings 340,474 342,239 525,757
Investment and development fund 113,263 590,245 744,540
Financial reserve fund 56,632 93,211 136,313
Other funds 126 - 360
Treasury stock - - -
Total shareholder equity 2,154,712 2,669,912 4,224,675
Minority Interest - - 35,590
Total liabilities and owner equity 3,897,936 3,609,403 5,425,117
Check balance - - -
ASSUMPTIONS
Balance Sheet 2005A 2006A 2007A
WORKING CAPITAL
Net working capital days 70 90
Account Receivable Days 21.27 25.00
Inventory Days 75 100
Account payable days 26 35
Working capital turnover
Receivable turnover 17.16 14.60
Inventory turnover 4.90 3.66
Payable turnover 14.04 10.48
Purchases 4,896,957 5,545,621
Other BS Assumptions
Cash as % Revenue 9% 2% 2%
Short-term Investment as % Rev 0% 5% 10%
Reserve for ST investment (% Investment)
Reserve for receivables (% Receivable)
Reserve for inventory (% Inventory)
Advance to suppliers (% Purchase)
ST prepayment (% Rev)
Other Current Assets % of Rev 7% 3% 3%
Long term Investments as % Rev 11% 6% 6%
Reserve for LT investment (% Investment)
Other assets as % of Rev 2.2% 1.8% 3.1%
LT prepayment as % Rev
Deferred revenue as % Rev
Accrued expenses as % Rev
Other Current Liabilities % of COGS 30% 7% 8%
Other liabilities as % COGS 3.5% 2.2% 2.2%
Tax payable as % Rev
Cash Flow Statement 2005A 2006A 2007A
Dividend Payout Ratio
Transfer to funds (% NPAT)
Investment & development Fund
Financial reserve
Bonus fund
Bonus paid-out (% of profit)
Historical Projected
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E
338,654 2,653,835 2,219,112 3,596,515 4,226,120 5,562,257 10,264,695
374,002 2,227,700 207,277 375,277 1,065,305 773,367 932,785
(70,658) (79,244) (130,029) (173,777) (209,598)
530,002 513,346 587,458 1,143,168 1,269,842 1,714,875 1,885,094
(597) (1,918) (3,853) (3,274) (3,599)
354,096 795,149 576,619 846,143 1,019,272
1,775,342 1,311,765 2,351,354 3,272,496 3,472,845 4,039,743 4,935,388
(4,133) (4,934) (3,455) (5,737) (7,009)
38,595 56,909 72,344 85,477 103,097
169,605 (1,637,488) 237,297 314,264 564,872 557,008 671,827
3,187,605 5,069,158 5,919,803 9,467,683 11,110,610 13,396,084 19,591,952
570,657 698,884 1,250,378 989,065 298,785 369,575 445,757
(96,405) (108,580) (142,351) (14,356) (17,757) (21,418)
1,529,187 1,835,582 2,589,894 3,493,629 4,223,443 7,946,695 8,816,122
2,618,638 3,135,506 4,113,301 5,301,827 6,512,875 10,895,888 12,676,117
(1,089,451) (1,299,924) (1,523,407) (1,808,198) (2,289,432) (2,949,193) (3,859,994)
50,868 39,241 173,395 256,046 253,616 266,618 280,269
79,416 82,340 263,171 383,409 387,180 406,539 426,866
(28,548) (43,098) (89,776) (127,363) (133,564) (139,921) (146,597)
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
27,489 27,489 100,818 100,671 96,714 92,757 88,801
27,489 27,489 104,060 117,666 117,666 117,666 117,666
- - (3,242) (16,995) (20,952) (24,909) (28,866)
356,868 650,140 665,282 1,295,087 3,565,241 1,780,228 778,667
19,557 15,503 13,662 11,821 9,980
97,741 25,598 41,074 97,848 118,018
62,865 80,643 108,002 132,793 132,793
244,285 257,946 1,879 1,096 1,076 2,305 2,781
2,779,354 3,412,878 4,853,230 6,114,989 8,587,258 10,682,884 10,651,769
5,966,959 8,482,036 10,773,032 15,582,672 19,697,868 24,078,968 30,243,721
188,222 13,283 567,960 - - - -
492,556 789,867 1,089,417 1,830,959 2,247,659 2,571,960 3,233,803
30,515 116,845 21,589 89,283 107,687
399,962 281,789 287,463 333,953 479,158 577,929
297,700 305,418 471,254 555,923 670,518
182,265 259,395 346,373 406,398 518,220 656,092
387,922 349,493 118,236 59,479 664,137 649,061 688,202
1,068,700 1,734,871 2,645,012 2,946,537 4,144,990 4,863,606 5,934,231
22,418 12,454 - - - - -
159,512 243,871 163,583 158,929 59,782 75,174 89,808
181,930 256,325 163,583 158,929 59,782 75,174 89,808
1,250,630 1,991,196 2,808,596 3,105,466 4,204,772 4,938,780 6,024,039
1,752,757 3,512,653 3,530,721 5,561,148 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558
1,064,948 - - 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994
- - - - - - -
803,037 892,345 1,909,022 4,177,446 5,198,758 8,094,310 11,910,243
869,697 1,756,283 2,172,291 908,024 93,889 777,107 1,956,429
175,276 294,348 353,072 556,115 588,402 656,724 740,961
- - - - - - -
- (154) (669) (2,522) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504)
4,665,715 6,455,475 7,964,437 12,477,205 15,493,097 19,140,188 24,219,681
50,614 35,365 - - - - -
5,966,959 8,482,036 10,773,032 15,582,672 19,697,868 24,078,968 30,243,721
- 0 0 0 (0) - -
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E
100 64 47.2 50.3 45.7 40.6 40.6
23.00 17.94 12.8 14.6 16.6 16.6 16.6
112 84 64.6 69.8 72.3 64.0 64.0
36 37 30.1 34.1 43.2 40.0 40.0
15.87 20.35 28.62 24.99 22.02 22.0 22.0
3.25 4.36 5.65 5.23 5.05 5.7 5.7
10.25 9.78 12.12 10.70 8.45 9.1 9.1
5,711,147 6,271,485 11,390,216 15,622,646 17,236,621 21,989,515 26,488,794
4% 25% 14.1% 16.6% 15.9% 5.0% 5.0%
5% 21% 1.3% 1.7% 4.0% 2.4% 2.4%
-34.1% -21.1% -12.2% -22.5% -22.5%
-0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2% -0.2%
-0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
3.1% 5.1% 3.3% 3.8% 3.8%
0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
2% -15% 1.5% 1.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7%
7% 7% 7.9% 4.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
-8.7% -14.4% -4.8% -4.8% -4.8%
3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
1.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%
7% 5% 1.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9%
2.8% 3.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5%
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E
30% 30.0% 30.0%
14% 14% 10.0% 14.0%
5% 1% 1.0% 1.0%
10% 10% 10.0% 10.0%
7.8% 8.9% 8.4% 8.4%
Projected
2015E 2016E 2017E 1H 2013A
16,327,882 25,135,661 35,957,146 4,912,485
1,130,286 1,357,129 1,633,772 733,331
(253,977) (304,949) (367,111) (142,494)
2,477,107 2,760,568 3,544,778 1,485,966
(4,729) (5,270) (6,767) (5,702)
1,227,480 1,473,741 1,774,111 679,488
5,909,680 7,102,931 8,556,007 3,885,037
(8,393) (10,087) (12,151) (3,333)
124,926 149,998 180,574 108,171
814,075 977,456 1,176,705 424,377
27,744,337 38,637,179 52,437,065 12,077,326
540,138 648,541 780,743 299,706
(25,952) (31,161) (37,513) (14,666)
8,579,760 8,279,964 7,916,736 6,071,619
13,454,783 14,233,450 15,012,117 8,616,265
(4,875,024) (5,953,486) (7,095,381) (2,544,646)
294,600 309,647 325,445 273,202
448,209 470,620 494,151 378,238
(153,609) (160,973) (168,706) (105,036)
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
84,844 80,887 76,930 110,678
117,666 117,666 117,666 133,660
(32,823) (36,780) (40,737) (22,982)
778,667 778,667 778,667 2,072,922
8,139 6,298 4,456 8,191
143,006 171,707 206,708 81,691
132,793 132,793 132,793 132,793
3,369 4,046 4,870 1,076
10,539,363 10,381,388 10,189,835 9,037,213
38,283,700 49,018,567 62,626,900 21,114,539
- - - -
3,757,909 4,636,508 5,468,811 2,036,039
130,488 156,677 188,615 32,846
700,296 840,842 1,012,243 545,089
812,488 975,551 1,174,412 566,056
828,661 1,042,073 1,306,027 238,481
738,246 796,254 867,076 594,657
6,968,087 8,447,905 10,017,183 4,013,168
- - - -
108,519 130,209 156,689 69,898
108,519 130,209 156,689 69,898
7,076,607 8,578,114 10,173,871 4,083,066
8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558
1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994
- - - -
17,328,550 24,736,431 34,491,203 6,124,774
3,432,540 5,258,019 7,515,822 539,193
833,956 833,956 833,956 755,739
- - - -
(4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,785)
31,207,093 40,440,454 52,453,029 17,031,473
- - - -
38,283,700 49,018,567 62,626,900 21,114,539
- - - 0
2015E 2016E 2017E
40.6 40.6 40.6
16.6 16.6 16.6
64.0 64.0 64.0
40.0 40.0 40.0
22.0 22.0 22.0
5.7 5.7 5.7
9.1 9.1 9.1
31,899,683 38,299,526 46,105,516 9,297,295
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 33.3%
2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 5.0%
-22.5% -22.5% -22.5% -19.4%
-0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.4%
-0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 7.3%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.9%
1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0%
-4.8% -4.8% -4.8% -4.9%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 3.8%
0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 7%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3.7%
2015E 2016E 2017E
30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
Vinamilk Cash Flow Statement INDIRECT METHOD
Units: VND million, except per share data Historical Projected
2011A 2012A
Profit before tax 4,978,992 6,929,668
Plus Depreciation & amortization 440,576 535,452
Minus reserve provisions 44,479 (76,755)
Minus Unrealized FX gain/loss
(Gain)/loss from investment activities 8,814 (21,317)
(Income) from interest/dividend (492,527) (362,908)
Gain/Loss from disposal of fixed asset 22,449 20,674
Plus interest expense 13,933 3,115
Cash Flow Before Change in Working Capital 5,016,716 7,027,929
(Inc)/Dec in A/R (555,711) (126,673)
(Inc)/Dec in Inventory (921,141) (200,350)
(Inc)/Dec in Prepaid Expenses 53,829 (30,910)
(Inc)/Dec in Other Current Assets (518,020) (32,078)
Inc/(Dec) in A/P 741,542 416,700
Inc/(Dec) in Other Current Liabilities 40,965 657,504
Change in Working Capital (1,158,536) 684,193
Interest payment (13,933) (3,115)
Tax payment (760,810) (1,045,989)
Other Incomes/(Losses) - -
Cash Flow From Operating Activities 3,083,436 6,663,018
Cashflow from Investing Activities
Capital Expenditure (2,137,685) (3,587,957)
Including:
Change in Tangible Fixed Assets (243,324) (351,599)
Change in Intangible Fixed Assets (120,335) (5,042)
Change in Construction in Progress (1,760,420) (3,231,317)
Changes in properties investment (13,607) -
Income from Fixed asset disposals 58,616 38,250
Changes in ST-LT Financial Investments 93,314 253
Interest, dividends, shared profit from investment 483,713 384,225
Changes in other LT assets (12,942) (25,497)
Cash Flow from Investment Activities (1,514,984) (3,190,727)
Cashflow from Financing Activities
Issuance of new shares 1,454,528 -
Stock Buyback (1,853) (1,982)
Increase / (Pay-off) of ST loans (567,960) -
Increase / (Pay-off) of LT loans - -
Dividend payment (741,428) (2,222,994)
Changes in other LT liabilities (4,654) (99,148)
Other distribution from equity (329,683) (518,562)
Cash Flow from Financing Activities (191,049) (2,842,686)
NET CASH FLOW IN YEAR 1,377,403 629,605
Cash - Beginning 2,219,112 3,596,515
Cash - Ending 3,596,515 4,226,120
Cash on Balance Sheet 3,596,515 4,226,120
Difference (0) (0)
CF Working
Doanh thu Tài chínhFinancial income 680,232 475,239
Lãi cho vayLoan interest 2,445 469
Lãi tiền gửiDeposit interest 366,516 249,763
Lãi đầu tư trái phiếuBond coupon 97,989 77,057
Cổ tức nhận đượcDividends received 25,577 35,620
Lãi FX đã thực hiệnRealized FX gain 133,012 103,439
Lãi do đánh giá lại FXUnrealized FX gain 53,335 -
Thanh lý tài khoản đầu tưDisposal of investment - 8,791
Thu nhập tài chính khácOther financial incomes 1,359 101
Chi phí tài chínhFinancial Expense 246,430 51,171
Hỗ trợ thanh toánSupport for payment 22,668 31,602
Chi phí lãi vayInterest expense 13,933 3,115
Chi phí lãi cho các khoản ký quỹInterest expense for margin services 1,174 1,016
Lỗ FX đã thực hiệnRealized FX loss 105,298 37,855
Lỗ do đánh giá lại FXUnrealized FX loss 60,941 23,750
(hoàn nhập dự phòng)/Dự phòng giảm giáProvision/(reversal of provision) 42,357 (77,210)
Chi phí Tài chính khácOther financial expenses 59 31,043
Lai/(lo) trong cong ty lien doanh lien ketProfit/(loss) in associates (8,814) 12,526
INDIRECT METHOD
Projected
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
8,135,593 10,030,782 12,555,120 15,526,700 19,203,835
670,075 921,434 1,025,998 1,089,783 1,153,585
48,852 41,079 51,427 58,416 72,075
(86,039) (86,535) (104,637) (126,160) (151,696)
(293,651) (474,809) (797,777) (1,243,906) (1,832,784)
- - - - -
- - - - -
8,474,831 10,431,951 12,730,130 15,304,833 18,445,015
(445,034) (170,218) (592,013) (283,461) (784,210)
(566,898) (895,645) (974,292) (1,193,251) (1,453,076)
(69,908) (37,790) (46,817) (53,773) (65,578)
(261,660) (287,948) (350,455) (409,643) (499,619)
324,301 661,842 524,106 878,599 832,303
282,492 270,911 337,182 387,806 473,021
(736,706) (458,848) (1,102,290) (673,723) (1,497,158)
- - - - -
(1,303,417) (1,607,048) (2,011,476) (2,487,558) (3,076,677)
- - - - -
6,434,708 8,366,056 9,616,364 12,143,552 13,871,179
(2,617,359) (798,994) (800,010) (801,077) (802,198)
- - - - -
(19,359) (20,327) (21,343) (22,410) (23,531)
(2,598,000) (778,667) (778,667) (778,667) (778,667)
- - - - -
- - - - -
221,147 (235,599) (291,882) (335,247) (408,845)
379,690 561,343 902,415 1,370,066 1,984,480
(24,179) 1,366 1,252 1,165 1,016
(2,040,700) (471,884) (188,225) 234,907 774,454
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
(2,501,867) (2,501,867) (2,501,867) (2,501,867) (2,501,867)
15,392 14,635 18,711 21,689 26,480
(571,395) (704,502) (881,796) (1,090,502) (1,348,762)
(3,057,870) (3,191,734) (3,364,952) (3,570,680) (3,824,149)
1,336,137 4,702,438 6,063,187 8,807,780 10,821,485
4,226,120 5,562,257 10,264,695 16,327,882 25,135,661
5,562,257 10,264,695 16,327,882 25,135,661 35,957,146
5,562,257 10,264,695 16,327,882 25,135,661 35,957,146
0 - - - -
Vinamilk Financial Ratios
Units: VND million, except per share data Historical Projected
2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
Growth Rates (%)
Sales 48.4% 37.3% 22.8% 23.7% 20.6% 21.2% 20.1% 20.4%
COGS 53.7% 42.0% 15.9% 25.7% 19.5% 20.8% 20.0% 20.3%
Gross profit 39.3% 28.2% 37.5% 20.0% 22.8% 21.8% 20.2% 20.5%
Selling expenses 12.9% 27.0% 29.9% 23.7% 20.6% 21.2% 20.1% 20.4%
Administration expenses 22.4% 13.9% 13.9% 23.7% 20.6% 21.2% 20.1% 20.4%
EBITDA 29.0% 43.8% 17.9% 22.4% 23.2% 21.6% 21.7%
Depreciation and Amortization 43.2% 28.9% 25.4% 37.5% 11.3% 6.2% 5.9%
EBIT / Operating profit 55.4% 30.1% 42.5% 18.5% 23.7% 22.1% 20.3% 20.5%
EBT 55.6% 17.1% 39.2% 17.4% 23.3% 25.2% 23.7% 23.7%
NPAT 52.2% 16.6% 38.0% 17.4% 23.3% 25.2% 23.7% 23.7%
EPS 12.9% 38.0% 17.4% 23.3% 25.2% 23.7% 23.7%
Profitability
Gross profit margin 34.3% 32.0% 35.9% 34.8% 35.4% 35.6% 35.6% 35.7%
EBITDA margin 21.2% 20.0% 23.4% 22.3% 22.6% 23.0% 23.3% 23.5%
EBIT margin / Operating profit margin 23.1% 21.9% 25.4% 24.3% 24.9% 25.1% 25.2% 25.2%
EBT margin 27.0% 23.0% 26.1% 24.8% 25.3% 26.1% 26.9% 27.7%
NPAT margin 23.0% 19.5% 21.9% 20.8% 21.3% 22.0% 22.6% 23.2%
Return on Assets (ROA) 37.6% 32.0% 33.0% 31.2% 31.0% 30.8% 29.9% 28.9%
Return on Equity (ROE) 50.2% 41.3% 41.6% 39.5% 38.9% 38.0% 36.4% 34.7%
ROIC 35.9% 28.6% 31.5% 30.0% 29.2% 28.4% 27.1% 25.8%
Financial leverage
Debt Equity Ratio 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Debt to Total Asset ratio 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Equity Multiplier 0.74 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.84
Liquidity
Quick Ratio 1.35 2.10 1.84 1.92 2.47 3.13 3.73 4.38
Current Ratio 2.24 3.21 2.68 2.75 3.30 3.98 4.57 5.23
Coverage ratios
Interest coverage (EBITDA/interest) 542 310 1,992 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
CFO/Current liabilities 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
CFO/Interest bearing debt 3.6 No debt No debt No debt No debt No debt No debt No debt
Efficiency
Receivable Turnover 28.6 25.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
Days Receivable Outstanding 13 15 17 17 17 17 17 17
Inventory Turnover 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Days Inventory Outstanding 65 70 72 64 64 64 64 64
Payables Turnover 12.1 10.7 8.5 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1
Days Payable Outstanding 30 34 43 40 40 40 40 40
Business Cycle 47 50 46 41 41 41 41 41
Current Asset Turnover 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5
Fixed Asset Turnover 13.6 13.3 12.9 10.4 9.2 10.7 13.2 16.5
Asset Turnover 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Purchasing 17,236,621
Vinamilk Shareholder Equity
Units: VND million, except per share data Historical
SHAREHOLDER EQUITY 2011A 2012A
Owner investment capital 5,561,148 8,339,558
Share capital surplus 1,276,994 1,276,994
Difference in currency - -
Retained earnings 4,177,446 5,198,758
Investment and development fund 908,024 93,889
Financial reserve fund 556,115 588,402
Other funds - -
Treasury stock (2,522) (4,504)
Total shareholder equity 12,477,205 15,493,097
Retained Earnings 2011A 2012A
Beginning balance 1,909,022 4,177,446
Profit for the year 4,218,182 5,819,455
Transfer to funds (1,208,329) (1,425,622)
Investment & Development fund (10%) (588,625) (814,748)
Financial Reserve (Max (5%, 10% chartered)) (203,043) (32,287)
Bonus funds (416,660) (578,587)
Dividend payment (741,428) (2,222,994)
Increase charter capital - (1,149,527)
Others
Ending balance 4,177,446 5,198,758
Detailed Calculation 2011A 2012A
Share Capital
Beginning balance 3,530,721 5,561,148
New capital 177,534
Bonus/Right issue 1,852,892 2,778,410
Ending balance 5,561,148 8,339,558
Share premium
Beginning balance - 1,276,994
Increase 1,276,994 -
Decrease - -
Ending balance 1,276,994 1,276,994
Treasury stock
Beginning balance (669) (2,522)
Increase (1,853) (1,982)
Decrease - -
Ending balance (2,522) (4,504)
Investment & development Fund (10% NPAT) 14.0% 14%
Beginning balance 2,172,291 908,024
Increase 588,625 814,748
Decrease (1,852,892) (1,628,883)
Ending balance 908,024 93,889
Financial reserve (Max (5%, 10% chartered)) 4.8% 1%
Beginning balance 353,072 556,115
Increase 203,043 32,287
Decrease
Ending balance 556,115 588,402
Non-equity funds
Bonus fund (10% NPAT) 9.9% 10%
Beginning balance 259,395 346,373
Increase 416,660 578,587
Decrease (329,683) (518,562)
Ending balance 346,373 406,398
(329,683) (518,562)
Projected
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558
1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994
- - - - -
8,094,310 11,910,243 17,328,550 24,736,431 34,491,203
777,107 1,956,429 3,432,540 5,258,019 7,515,822
656,724 740,961 833,956 833,956 833,956
- - - - -
(4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504)
19,140,188 24,219,681 31,207,093 40,440,454 52,453,029
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
5,198,758 8,094,310 11,910,243 17,328,550 24,736,431
6,832,177 8,423,734 10,543,644 13,039,142 16,127,158
(1,434,757) (2,105,933) (2,623,469) (3,129,394) (3,870,518)
(683,218) (1,179,323) (1,476,110) (1,825,480) (2,257,802)
(68,322) (84,237) (92,995) - -
(683,218) (842,373) (1,054,364) (1,303,914) (1,612,716)
(2,501,867) (2,501,867) (2,501,867) (2,501,867) (2,501,867)
8,094,310 11,910,243 17,328,550 24,736,431 34,491,203
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558
8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558 8,339,558
1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994
- - - - -
- - - - -
1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994 1,276,994
(4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504)
(4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504) (4,504)
93,889 777,107 1,956,429 3,432,540 5,258,019
683,218 1,179,323 1,476,110 1,825,480 2,257,802
777,107 1,956,429 3,432,540 5,258,019 7,515,822
588,402 656,724 740,961 833,956 833,956
68,322 84,237 92,995 - -
656,724 740,961 833,956 833,956 833,956
406,398 518,220 656,092 828,661 1,042,073
683,218 842,373 1,054,364 1,303,914 1,612,716
(571,395) (704,502) (881,796) (1,090,502) (1,348,762)
518,220 656,092 828,661 1,042,073 1,306,027
Vinamilk Fixed AssetsUnits: VND million, except per share data Historical Projected
FIXED ASSETS 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E
Tangible Fixed Assets 2,589,894 3,493,629 4,223,443 7,946,695
Historical price 4,113,301 5,301,827 6,512,875 10,895,888
Accum depreciation (1,523,407) (1,808,198) (2,289,432) (2,949,193)
Intangible Fixed Assets 173,395 256,046 253,616 266,618
Historical price 263,171 383,409 387,180 406,539
Accum Amortization (89,776) (127,363) (133,564) (139,921)
Investment Properties 100,818 100,671 96,714 92,757
Historical price 104,060 117,666 117,666 117,666
Accum Amortization (3,242) (16,995) (20,952) (24,909)
Net Depreciation for Tangible 223,482 284,792 481,234 659,761
Depreciation rate 6.17% 6.05% 8.15% 7.58%
Depreciation period 16.22 16.53 12.28 13.19
Net Amortization in year 46,678 37,587 6,201 6,357
Amortization rate 27.02% 11.63% 1.61% 4.03%
Amortization period 3.70 8.60 62.13 24.8
Net Depreciation for Investment Properties 3,242 13,753 3,957 3,957
Depreciation rate 4.93% 12.41% 3.36% 5.16%
Depreciation period 20.29 8.06 29.74 19.4
Total Depreciation & Amortization 273,402 336,132 491,392 670,075
D&A / Sales 1.74% 1.55% 1.85% 2.04%
D&A / COGS 2.64% 2.29% 2.88% 3.13%
COSTSTangible fixed assets
Beginning 3,135,506 4,113,301 5,301,827 6,512,875
Purchased in year 196,359 155,719 278,771
Transferred from CIP 1,146,041 1,130,615 961,162 4,383,013
Sold in year (433,270) (185,412) (101,713)
Other adjustment 68,664 87,604 72,828
Ending 4,113,301 5,301,827 6,512,875 10,895,888
Intangible assets
Beginning 82,340 263,171 383,409 387,180
Purchased in year 33,271 9,139 5,042 19,359
Transferred from CIP
Sold in year (97) (1,271)
Other adjustment 147,560 111,196 0
Ending 263,171 383,409 387,180 406,539
Investment Properties
Beginning 27,489 104,060 117,666 117,666
Purchased in year
Transferred from CIP 12,411 - -
Sold in year
Other adjustment 64,159 13,607 -
Ending 104,060 117,666 117,666 117,666
DepreciationTangible fixed assets
Beginning 1,299,924 1,523,407 1,808,198 2,289,432
Increased in year 276,712 399,310 524,023 659,761
Sold in year (84,079) (104,347) (42,790)
Other adjustment 30,849 (10,172) (0)
Ending 1,523,407 1,808,198 2,289,432 2,949,193
Intangible assets
Beginning 43,098 89,776 127,363 133,564
Increased in year 10,600 11,442 7,472 6,357
Sold in year (97) (1,271)
Other adjustment 36,078 26,242 (0)
Ending 89,776 127,363 133,564 139,921
Investment Properties
Beginning - 3,242 16,995 20,952
Increased in year 2,818 3,838 3,957 3,957
Sold in year
Other adjustment 424 9,915 -
Ending 3,242 16,995 20,952 24,909
Net book valueRemaining assets 2,864,107 3,850,346 4,573,774 8,306,070
Tangible fixed assets 2,589,894 3,493,629 4,223,443 7,946,695
Intangible assets 173,395 256,046 253,616 266,618
Investment Properties 100,818 100,671 96,714 92,757
Sold assets 349,191 81,065 58,924 -
CONSTRUCTION IN PROGRESS (3,329,013)
Beginning balance 650,140 665,282 1,295,087 3,565,241
Increase in year 1,175,733 1,765,978 3,244,216 2,598,000
Transfer to fixed assets (1,146,041) (1,130,615) (961,162) (4,383,013)
Transfer to investment properties (12,411) -
Transfer to inventory - (4,529)
Sold in year (1,495) -
Other changes (643) (1,030) (12,899)
Ending balance 665,282 1,295,087 3,565,241 1,780,228
2013-2017 PROJECTION
CAPEX PLAN Before 2012 4-Jul-05 5-Jul-05
Vietnam Milk Factory 415,000 1,268,000 654,000
Dielac II Factory 569,000 869,000 400,000
Da Nang Factory 204,000 158,000 14,000
Warehouses 75,000 51,000 201,000
Supply Chain 1,225,000 479,000 554,000
Cow Herding 36,000 189,000 473,000
Others 47,000 19,000 302,000
Total New Capex 2,571,000 3,033,000 2,598,000
Total Tangible assets 5,301,827 6,512,875 10,895,888
Reinvestment rate (% of sales) 0% 16% 14% 10%
Depreciation of Tangible Assets
Old assets 284,792 481,234 481,234
New assets in 2013 178,528
New assets in 2014
New assets in 2015
New assets in 2016
New assets in 2017
Total Depreciation 284,792 481,234 659,761
Amortization of Intangible Assets
Old assets 6,201
New assets in 2013 156
New assets in 2014
New assets in 2015
New assets in 2016
New assets in 2017
Total Amortization 6,357
Assumption
Depreciation period of new assets (year)
Tangible 12.28
Intangible 62.13
Depreciation period of first year (months)
Tangible 6
Intangible 6
Increase in fixed assets (% old assets)
Intangible 5.00%
Projected
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
8,816,122 8,579,760 8,279,964 7,916,736
12,676,117 13,454,783 14,233,450 15,012,117 Ending Balance = Beginning balance + Construction in Progress.
(3,859,994) (4,875,024) (5,953,486) (7,095,381)
280,269 294,600 309,647 325,445
426,866 448,209 470,620 494,151
(146,597) (153,609) (160,973) (168,706)
88,801 84,844 80,887 76,930
117,666 117,666 117,666 117,666
(28,866) (32,823) (36,780) (40,737)
910,801 1,015,029 1,078,462 1,141,895
7.73% 7.77% 7.79% 7.81%
12.94 12.87 12.84 12.81
6,676 7,012 7,364 7,733
4.03% 4.03% 4.03% 4.03%
24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8
3,957 3,957 3,957 3,957
5.16% 5.16% 5.16% 5.16%
19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4
921,434 1,025,998 1,089,783 1,153,585
2.33% 2.14% 1.89% 1.66%
3.60% 3.32% 2.94% 2.58%
10,895,888 12,676,117 13,454,783 14,233,450
1,780,228 778,667 778,667 778,667
12,676,117 13,454,783 14,233,450 15,012,117
406,539 426,866 448,209 470,620
20,327 21,343 22,410 23,531
426,866 448,209 470,620 494,151
117,666 117,666 117,666 117,666
117,666 117,666 117,666 117,666
2,949,193 3,859,994 4,875,024 5,953,486
910,801 1,015,029 1,078,462 1,141,895
3,859,994 4,875,024 5,953,486 7,095,381
139,921 146,597 153,609 160,973
6,676 7,012 7,364 7,733
146,597 153,609 160,973 168,706
24,909 28,866 32,823 36,780
3,957 3,957 3,957 3,957
28,866 32,823 36,780 40,737
9,185,192 8,959,204 8,670,498 8,319,110
8,816,122 8,579,760 8,279,964 7,916,736
280,269 294,600 309,647 325,445
88,801 84,844 80,887 76,930
- - - -
1,780,228 778,667 778,667 778,667
778,667 778,667 778,667 778,667
(1,780,228) (778,667) (778,667) (778,667)
778,667 778,667 778,667 778,667
6-Jul-05 7-Jul-05 8-Jul-05 9-Jul-05 Capex Plan 2014-2016 (Unit: VND mn)
12,000
68,000
43,000
294,000
538,000
1,082,000
299,000
778,667 778,667 778,667 778,667 2,336,000
12,676,117 13,454,783 14,233,450 15,012,117
2% 2% 2% 1%
Note:
481,234 481,234 481,234 481,234 2,406,167.82 - Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the ending of year 1 = Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the end of year 0 + Construction in Progress of year 0
357,056 357,056 357,056 357,056 1,606,750.34 - Assume new assets only brought into operation since the beginning of next year
72,512 145,024 145,024 145,024 507,582.81
31,716 63,433 63,433 158,582.30
31,716 63,433 95,149.38
31,716 31,716.46
910,801 1,015,029 1,078,462 1,141,895
6,201 6,201 6,201 6,201
312 312 312 312
164 327 327 327
172 344 344
180 361
189
6,676 7,012 7,364 7,733
6 6 6 6
6 6 6 6
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Ending Balance = Beginning balance + Construction in Progress.
Capex Plan 2014-2016 (Unit: VND mn)
- Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the ending of year 1 = Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the end of year 0 + Construction in Progress of year 0
- Assume new assets only brought into operation since the beginning of next year
- Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the ending of year 1 = Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the end of year 0 + Construction in Progress of year 0
WACC Analysis - Vinamilk
Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions
Risk-Free Rate: 8.50%
Equity Risk Premium: 11.57%
Interest Rate on Debt: 10.00%
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation
Levered Equity
Name Beta Debt Value
Mengniu Dairy 0.54 130 7,650
Inner Mongolia Yili 0.88 422 8,965
Bright Dairy 0.94 270 2,877
Yashili 0.84 54 1,661
Modern Farm 0.66 423 1,682
Meiji Dairies Corp 0.68 2,076 4,044
Median 0.76
Vinamilk 0.78
Vinamilk - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation
Unlevered Equity
Beta Debt Value
Vinamilk 0.68 - 115,919,856
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables:
Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta:
WACCBased on comparables
Based on Historical beta
Unlevered
Tax Rate Beta
14.7% 0.53 Unlevered beta = Levered beta / (1+(1-t)*D/E)
16.8% 0.85
20.1% 0.88
27.2% 0.82
0.0% 0.53
33.2% 0.51
0.68
Levered
Tax Rate Beta
16% 0.68
16.33%
17.47%
16.33%
17.47%
Vinamilk DCF CalculationFCFF Projection
Valuation date: 9/13/2013
Last fiscal year end date 12/31/2012
Year fraction 30%
VNDm 2011A
EBIT 4,992,925
Tax Paid 762,939
EBIAT 4,229,986
Add back:
Depreciation & Amortization Expense 414,590
Minus:
Change in Net Working Capital 1,158,536
Capital Expenditure 2,137,685
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) 1,348,355
FCFF growth
WACC 16.33%
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Midyear adjustment factor
Present Value of FCFF
Cumulative Present Value of FCFF 71,076,988
Terminal Value (by EV/EBITDA)
Terminal EBITDA (2022E) 28,146,240
Exit Multiple 6.0x
Terminal Value 168,877,440
Discount Factor 0.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 41,380,765
% of Enterprise Value 36.80%
Enterprise Value 112,457,753
112,457,753 5.0x
14.33% 117,335,596
15.33% 111,225,975
16.33% 105,560,959
17.33% 100,302,825
18.33% 95,417,416
5.0x
14.33% 122,248,081
Enterprise Value (VND mn)
Equity Value (VND mn)
Exit Multiple
Enterprise Value (VND mn)
WA
CC
WA
CC
Exit Multiple
15.33% 116,138,460
16.33% 110,473,444
17.33% 105,215,310
18.33% 100,329,901
140,739 5.0x
14.33% 146,588
15.33% 139,262
16.33% 132,469
17.33% 126,164
18.33% 120,306
1.8% 5.0x
14.33% -2.4%
15.33% -1.6%
16.33% -0.7%
17.33% 0.2%
18.33% 1.0%
37% 5.5x
14.33% 36.7%
15.33% 35.8%
16.33% 34.8%
17.33% 33.8%
18.33% 32.9%
FCFE Projection
VNDm 2011A
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) 1,348,355
Minus: After-tax Interest Expense 11,804
Add: Net Debt Borrowing (567,960)
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) 768,590
FCFE growth
Cost of Equity 16.33%
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Midyear adjustment factor
Present Value of FCFE
Cumulative Present Value of FCFE 71,076,988
Equity Value (VND mn)
PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value
Price per Share (VND)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple
Exit Multiple
WA
CC
Exit Multiple
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
FCFE Terminal Value (by growth rate)
Terminal Net income (2022E) 25,972,949
Growth rate 1.8%
Terminal Value 181,793,120
Discount Factor 25%
PV of Terminal Value 44,545,550
As of % of Equity Value 38.53%
Equity Value 115,622,538
115,622,538 -0.2%
14.33% 128,129,402
15.33% 118,135,507
16.33% 109,467,403
17.33% 101,889,371
18.33% 95,217,358
138,643 -0.2%
14.33% 153,641
15.33% 141,657
16.33% 131,263
17.33% 122,176
18.33% 114,176
By other method
FCFE
Net income 4,218,182
Depreciation 414,590
Less Capex (2,137,685)
Less change in WC (1,158,536)
Add debt (567,960)
Total FCFE 768,590
FCFE by old method
Co
st
of
Eq
uit
yC
ost
of
Eq
uit
yPrice per Share (VND)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Equity Value (VND m)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
17% 23% 25% 24%
2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
6,932,783 8,135,593 10,030,782 12,555,120 15,526,700
1,110,712 1,303,417 1,607,048 2,011,476 2,487,558
5,822,071 6,832,177 8,423,734 10,543,644 13,039,142
534,303 670,075 921,434 1,025,998 1,089,783
(684,193) 736,706 458,848 1,102,290 673,723
3,587,957 2,617,359 798,994 800,010 801,077
3,452,609 4,148,187 8,087,327 9,667,342 12,654,125
20% 95% 20% 31%
- 1.0 2.0 3.0
0.96 0.82 0.71 0.61
1.02 1.08 1.08 1.08
4,055,558 7,167,168 7,364,877 8,287,172
20% 95% 20% 31%
Enterprise Value 112,457,753 FCFF Terminal Value (2022E)
Less: Total Debt - WACC
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 4,912,485 Terminal Value
Implied Equity Value 117,370,238 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Price per Share VND 140,739
Forward P/E 2013E 17.2x
5.5x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x
121,387,427 125,439,258 129,491,089 133,542,921
114,962,625 118,699,276 122,435,927 126,172,577
109,009,356 112,457,753 115,906,150 119,354,547
103,487,392 106,671,960 109,856,527 113,041,095
98,360,327 101,303,237 104,246,148 107,189,058
5.5x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x
126,299,912 130,351,743 134,403,575 138,455,406
Enterprise Value (VND mn)
Equity Value (VND mn)
Exit Multiple
Implied Perpetuity Growth RateImplied Equity Value and Share Price
(VND mn, except per share)
Exit Multiple
119,875,111 123,611,761 127,348,412 131,085,063
113,921,841 117,370,238 120,818,635 124,267,032
108,399,877 111,584,445 114,769,013 117,953,580
103,272,812 106,215,722 109,158,633 112,101,543
5.5x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x
151,447 156,305 161,164 166,022
143,743 148,223 152,704 157,185
136,604 140,739 144,874 149,009
129,983 133,801 137,620 141,439
123,835 127,364 130,893 134,421
5.5x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x
-1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 1.9%
-0.2% 0.9% 1.9% 2.7%
0.6% 1.8% 2.8% 3.6%
1.5% 2.7% 3.7% 4.5%
2.4% 3.5% 4.5% 5.4%
6.0x 6.5x 7.0x 7.5x
38.8% 40.7% 42.5% 44.2%
37.8% 39.7% 41.5% 43.1%
36.8% 38.7% 40.4% 42.1%
35.8% 37.7% 39.4% 41.1%
34.9% 36.7% 38.4% 40.1%
2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
3,452,609 4,148,187 8,087,327 9,667,342 12,654,125
2,616 - - - -
- - - - -
3,449,993 4,148,187 8,087,327 9,667,342 12,654,125
- 1.0 2.0 3.0
0.96 0.82 0.71 0.61
1.02 1.08 1.08 1.08
4,055,558 7,167,168 7,364,877 8,287,172
Equity Value 115,622,538
Less: Cash & Cash Equivalents 4,912,485 FCFE Terminal value (2022E)
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
(VND mn, except per share)Implied Terminal Multiple
PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value
Price per Share (VND)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple
Exit Multiple
Exit Multiple
Plus: Debt - Net income 2022E
Implied Enterprise Value 120,535,023
Implied P/E
Implied Price per Share VND 138,643
Forward P/E 2013E 16.9x
0.8% 1.8% 2.8% 3.8%
132,470,643 137,504,145 143,409,835 150,435,914
121,654,384 125,692,950 130,375,512 135,869,453
112,346,957 115,622,538 119,381,877 123,740,685
104,265,688 106,947,794 109,998,771 113,500,335
97,193,185 99,407,895 101,907,598 104,751,086
0.8% 1.8% 2.8% 3.8%
158,846 164,882 171,963 180,388
145,876 150,719 156,334 162,922
134,716 138,643 143,151 148,378
125,025 128,242 131,900 136,099
116,545 119,200 122,198 125,607
5,819,455 6,832,177 8,423,734 10,543,644 13,039,142
534,303 670,075 921,434 1,025,998 1,089,783
(3,587,957) (2,617,359) (798,994) (800,010) (801,077)
684,193 (736,706) (458,848) (1,102,290) (673,723)
- - - - -
3,449,993 4,148,187 8,087,327 9,667,342 12,654,125
(2,616) - -
Price per Share (VND)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Equity Value (VND m)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
24%
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
19,203,835
3,076,677
16,127,158
1,153,585
1,497,158
802,198
14,981,387 16,479,526 18,127,478 19,940,226 21,934,249
18% 10% 10% 10% 10%
34%
4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
0.52 0.45 0.39 0.33 0.29
1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
8,434,164 7,975,364 7,541,522 7,131,280 6,743,354
18%
FCFF Terminal Value (2022E) 24,127,674
16.33%
168,877,440
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate 1.8% Formula for terminal value based on growth rate
TermVal=FCFF*(1+g)/(r-g)
g= ( (TermVal/FCFF)*r-1)/ (1+TermVal/FCFF)
g= (TV*r - FCFF) / (FCFF+TV)
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
14,981,387
-
-
14,981,387 16,479,526 18,127,478 19,940,226 21,934,249
34% 10% 10% 10% 10%
4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
0.52 0.45 0.39 0.33 0.29
1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
8,434,164 7,975,364 7,541,522 7,131,280 6,743,354
FCFE Terminal value (2022E) 181,793,120
Implied Terminal Multiple
25,972,949
7.x
16,127,158
1,153,585
(802,198)
(1,497,158)
-
14,981,387
2022E ASSUMPTIONS
- Stage 1 - 2013-2017 CAGR FCF: 30%
- Stage 2 - 2018-2022 CAGR FCF: 10 %
24,127,674
10%
9.0
0.25
1.08
6,376,530
Formula for terminal value based on growth rate
g= ( (TermVal/FCFF)*r-1)/ (1+TermVal/FCFF)
2022E
24,127,674
10%
9.0
0.25
1.08
6,376,530
Vinamilk
Benchmarking Analysis - Financial Statistics and Ratios
(USD millions, except USD per share data)
Equity Enterprise Shares
Ticker Value ($mn) Value ($mn) Outstanding (mn)
Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK equity 7,650 7,393 1,768
Inner Mongolia Yili 600887 CH equity 8,965 9,091 1,717
Bright Dairy 600597 CH equity 2,877 2,832 1,108
Yashili 1230 HK equity 1,661 1,328 3,557
Modern Farm 1117 HK equity 1,682 2,010 4,849
Meiji Dairies Corp 2269 JP equity 4,044 6,023 74
Vinamilk VNM VN equity 5,392 5,163 834
PriceShares
OutstandingBeta
Ticker ($) (million)
Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK equity 4.33 1,768 0.54
Inner Mongolia Yili 600887 CH equity 5.22 1,717 0.88
Bright Dairy 600597 CH equity 2.60 1,108 0.94
Yashili 1230 HK equity 0.47 3,557 0.84
Modern Farm 1117 HK equity 0.35 4,849 0.66
Meiji Dairies Corp 2269 JP equity 54.90 74 0.68
Vinamilk VNM VN equity 6.47 834 0.78
As of 13 Sep 2013
Market Valuation
General Information
Company
Company
As of 13 Sep 2013
Gross
Gross Net Profit EBITDA
Sales Profit EBITDA EBIT Income EPS (%) (%)
5,897 1,646 370 204 206 0.12 27.9% 6.3%
6,863 2,040 418 269 281 0.16 29.7% 6.1%
2,251 831 128 75 51 0.05 36.9% 5.7%
597 334 100 86 77 0.02 55.9% 16.7%
274 66 54 38 65 0.01 24.0% 19.7%
11,307 4,252 671 260 167 2.27 37.6% 5.9%
1,322 510 331 359 296 0.35 38.6% 25.0%
Leverage Ratios
EBITDA/ EBITDA EBIT/ Debt/
ROE ROA Int. Exp. - Cpx/Int. Int. Exp. Tot. Cap.
(%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
10.1% 6.0% 54.23 7.28 29.88 1.7%
23.4% 8.8% n.m n.m n.m 4.7%
7.8% 3.4% 10.96 (4.31) 6.44 9.4%
11.5% 8.5% 217.54 143.30 188.36 3.3%
7.9% 4.6% 4.63 (26.94) 3.28 25.2%
5.3% 2.1% 43.13 20.35 16.69 51.3%
41.6% 41.3% 1,992 840 2,164 0.0%
LTM Profitability MarginsLTM Financial Statistics ($mn, except EPS - $)
Return on Investment LTM Coverage Ratios
Net
EBIT Income Hist. Est. Hist. Est. Hist. Est.
(%) (%) 1-year 1-year 1-year 1-year 1-year 1-year
3.5% 3.5% -3.5% 16.2% -8.4% 18.2% -21.3% 12.3%
3.9% 4.1% 12.1% 12.1% 17.8% 47.5% -5.7% 15.1%
3.3% 2.3% 16.9% 19.4% 44.8% 24.6% 24.0% 23.0%
14.4% 12.8% 23.6% 22.3% 68.4% 23.5% 53.3% 20.3%
14.0% 23.8% 50.7% 70.8% 28.3% 64.0% 59.5% 10.1%
2.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 9.0% 9.0% 144.6% 27.3%
27.2% 22.4% 22.8% 23.7% 43.8% 17.9% 38.0% 17.4%
EPS
Growth RateLTM Profitability Margins
Sales EBITDA
Vinamilk
Comparable Companies Analysis
(VND millions, except per share data)
Current % of
Share 52-wk. Equity Enterprise
Ticker Price ($) High Value Value
As of
13-Sep-13
Mengniu Dairy 2319.HK 4.33 99% 7,650 7,393
Inner Mongolia Yili 600887:CH 5.22 96% 8,965 9,091
Bright Dairy 600597:CH 2.60 97% 2,877 2,832
Yashili 1230.HK 0.47 96% 1,661 1,328
Modern Farm 1117.HK 0.35 93% 1,682 2,010
Meiji Dairies Corp 2269.JP 54.90 99% 4,044 6,023
Vinamilk VNM.VN 6.47 99% 5,392 5,163
Maximum
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Minimum
Company
LTM 2013E LTM 2013E LTM 2013E
Sales Sales EBITDA EBITDA EPS EPS
1.25x 1.08x 19.98x 16.90x 37.19x 33.11x
1.32x 1.18x 21.73x 14.73x 31.94x 27.76x
1.26x 1.05x 22.11x 17.75x 56.55x 46.00x
2.22x 1.82x 13.32x 10.78x 21.69x 18.03x
7.33x 4.29x 37.20x 22.68x 25.83x 23.46x
0.53x 0.53x 8.98x 8.24x 24.20x 19.02x
3.91x 3.16x 15.61x 13.24x 18.22x 15.53x
7.33x 4.29x 37.20x 22.68x 56.55x 46.00x
2.00x 1.66x 22.02x 17.54x 35.88x 31.77x
1.29x 1.13x 20.85x 15.82x 28.88x 25.61x
1.25x 1.06x 14.98x 11.77x 24.61x 20.13x
0.53x 0.53x 8.98x 8.24x 18.22x 15.53x
Enterprise Value / Price /
Vinamilk
Scenario Analysis
(VND millions, except per share data)
Base
CASE 1-Jan-00 Best
Worst
DCF RESULTS (FCFF) BASE BEST
Total EV (VNDm) 112,457,753 167,065,701
Total EqV (VNDm) 117,370,238 171,978,186
Share Price (VND) 140,739 206,220
2013 P/E (x) 17.2x 21.6x
2013 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.1x 18.x
2013 P/B (x) 6.1x 8.5x
Assumptions
Sales growth
Base case
Best case
Worst case
Gross margin
Base case
Best case
Worst case
Working Capital
Receivable days
Base case
Best case
Worst case
Inventory days
Base case
Best case
Worst case
Payable days
Base case
Best case
Worst case
Growth in 2nd stage (2018-2022)
Base case
Best case
Worst case
WORST Ref
77,681,135 112,457,753
82,593,620 117,370,238
99,038 140,739
13.5x 17.2x
10.8x 14.1x
4.5x 6.1x
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
23.7% 20.6% 21.2% 20.1% 20.4%
26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
33.1% 33.5% 33.8% 34.1% 34.3%
36.5% 36.5% 36.5% 36.5% 36.5%
31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6%
16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6
14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
17.9 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0
64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0
64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0
69.8 69.8 69.8 69.8 69.8
40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2
35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%